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At least 19 records

Problems, questions and results in the use of the BBN-model

A hierarchical structured control model was used to describe pilot performance in a multivariable control problem. The model is based on the assumption that a well trained operator optimized a quadratic optimization criterion. The model considers some special characteristics of the human operator as time delay, neuromuscular time lag, observation and motor noise and the ability to extract the first derivative of a displaced value. Numerical results of a simple human engineering example using the BBN model demonstrate the influence of the variation of different parameters on covariance matrices of the state and observation vectors.

Dey, D.↗

BBN-Based Portfolio Risk Assessment for NASA Technology R&D Outcome

The NASA Aeronautics Research Mission Directorate (ARMD) vision falls into six strategic thrusts that are aimed to support the challenges of the Next Generation Air Transportation System (NextGen). In order to achieve the goals of the ARMD vision, the Airspace Operations and Safety Program (AOSP) is committed to developing and delivering new technologies. To meet the dual challenges of constrained resources and timely technology delivery, program portfolio risk assessment is critical for communication and decision-making. This paper describes how Bayesian Belief Network (BBN) is applied to assess the probability of a technology meeting the expected outcome. The network takes into account the different risk factors of technology development and implementation phases. The use of BBNs allows for all technologies of projects in a program portfolio to be separately examined and compared. In addition, the technology interaction effects are modeled through the application of object-oriented BBNs. The paper discusses the development of simplified project risk BBNs and presents various risk results. The results presented include the probability of project risks not meeting success criteria, the risk drivers under uncertainty via sensitivity analysis, and what-if analysis. Finally, the paper shows how program portfolio risk can be assessed using risk results from BBNs of projects in the portfolio.

Geuther, Steven C.↗

Voice technology and BBN

The following research was discussed: (1) speech signal processing; (2) automatic speech recognition; (3) continuous speech understanding; (4) speaker recognition; (5) speech compression; (6) subjective and objective evaluation of speech communication system; (7) measurement of the intelligibility and quality of speech when degraded by noise or other masking stimuli; (8) speech synthesis; (9) instructional aids for second-language learning and for training of the deaf; and (10) investigation of speech correlates of psychological stress. Experimental psychology, control systems, and human factors engineering, which are often relevant to the proper design and operation of speech systems are described.

Wolf, Jared J.↗

Quasi-Periodic Oscillations in Black Hole Candidates as an Indicator of Transition Between Low and High States

By comparing positions on a spectral color-color diagram from 10 black hole candidates (BHCS) observed with Ginga (1354-64, 1826-24, 1630-47, LMC X-1, LMC X-3, GS 2000+25, GS 2023+33, GS 1124-68, Cyg X-1, and GX 339-4) with the observed broad-band noise (0.001- 64 Hz; BBN) and quasi-periodic oscillation (QPO) variability, we find that the so-called "Very High State" is spectrally intermediate to the Soft/High-State and Hard/Low-State. We find a transition point in spectral hardness where the dependence of the BHC QPO centroid frequency (of GS 1124-68 and GX 339-4) on spectral hardness switches from a correlation to an anti-correlation; where the BBN variability switches from High-State to Low-State; and where the spectral hardness of the QPO relative to that of the BBN variability is a maximum. This coincidence of changing behavior in both the QPO and the broad-band variability leads us to hypothesize that the QPO is due to interaction between the physical components which dominate the behaviors of BHCs when they occupy the Hard/Low and Soft/High States. We conclude that these QPO should be observed from BHCs during transition between these two states. Comparison with QPO and BBN behavior observed during the 1996 transition of Cyg X-1 supports this hypothesis. We also report 1-3 Hz QPO observed in GS 2000+25 and Cyg X-1 in the Hard/Low State, and we compare these to the QPO observed in GS 1124-68 and GX 339-4.

Rutledge, Robert E↗

Quasi-Periodic Oscillations in Black Hole Candidates as an Indicator of Transition Between Low and High States

By comparing positions on a spectral color-color diagram from 10 black hole candidates (BHCS) observed with Ginga (1354-64, 1826-24, 1630-47, LMC X-1, LMC X-3, GS 2000+25, GS 2023+33, GS 1124-68, Cyg X-1, and GX 339-4) with the observed broadband noise (BBN) (0.001-64 Hz) and quasi-periodic oscillation (QPO) variability, we find that the "very high state" is spectrally intermediate to the soft/high state and hard/low state. We find a transition point in spectral hardness where the dependence of the BHC QPO centroid frequency (of GS 1124-68 and GX 339-4) on spectral hardness switches from a correlation to an anticorrelation; where the BBN variability switches from high state to low state; and where the spectral hardness of the QPO relative to that of the BBN variability is a maximum. This coincidence of changing behavior in both the QPO and the broadband variability leads us to hypothesize that the QPO is due to interaction between the physical components which dominate the behaviors of BHCs when they occupy the hard/low and soft/high states. We conclude that these QPOs should be observed from BHCs during transition between these two states. Comparison with QPO and BBN behavior observed during the 1996 transition of Cyg X-1 supports this hypothesis. We also report 1-3 Hz QPOs observed in GS 2000+25 and Cyg X-1 in the hard/low state, and we compare these to the QPOs observed in GS 1124-68 and GX 339-4.

Rutledge, Robert E.↗

Developing a Methodology for Eliciting Subjective Probability Estimates During Expert Evaluations of Safety Interventions: Application for Bayesian Belief Networks

The NASA Aviation Safety Program (AvSP) has defined several products that will potentially modify airline and/or ATC operations, enhance aircraft systems, and improve the identification of potential hazardous situations within the National Airspace System (NAS). Consequently, there is a need to develop methods for evaluating the potential safety benefit of each of these intervention products so that resources can be effectively invested to produce the judgments to develop Bayesian Belief Networks (BBN's) that model the potential impact that specific interventions may have. Specifically, the present report summarizes methodologies for improving the elicitation of probability estimates during expert evaluations of AvSP products for use in BBN's. The work involved joint efforts between Professor James Luxhoj from Rutgers University and researchers at the University of Illinois. The Rutgers' project to develop BBN's received funding by NASA entitled "Probabilistic Decision Support for Evaluating Technology Insertion and Assessing Aviation Safety System Risk." The proposed project was funded separately but supported the existing Rutgers' program.

Wiegmann, Douglas A.a↗

Development of a Bayesian Belief Network Runway Incursion Model

In a previous paper, a statistical analysis of runway incursion (RI) events was conducted to ascertain their relevance to the top ten Technical Challenges (TC) of the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) Aviation Safety Program (AvSP). The study revealed connections to perhaps several of the AvSP top ten TC. That data also identified several primary causes and contributing factors for RI events that served as the basis for developing a system-level Bayesian Belief Network (BBN) model for RI events. The system-level BBN model will allow NASA to generically model the causes of RI events and to assess the effectiveness of technology products being developed under NASA funding. These products are intended to reduce the frequency of RI events in particular, and to improve runway safety in general. The development, structure and assessment of that BBN for RI events by a Subject Matter Expert panel are documented in this paper.

Green, Lawrence L.↗

Development of a Bayesian Belief Network Runway Incursion and Excursion Model

In a previous work, a statistical analysis of runway incursion (RI) event data was conducted to ascertain the relevance of this data to the top ten Technical Challenges (TC) of the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) Aviation Safety Program (AvSP). The study revealed connections to several of the AvSP top ten TC and identified numerous primary causes and contributing factors of RI events. The statistical analysis served as the basis for developing a system-level Bayesian Belief Network (BBN) model for RI events, also previously reported. Through literature searches and data analysis, this RI event network has now been extended to also model runway excursion (RE) events. These RI and RE event networks have been further modified and vetted by a Subject Matter Expert (SME) panel. The combined system-level BBN model will allow NASA to generically model the causes of RI and RE events and to assess the effectiveness of technology products being developed under NASA funding. These products are intended to reduce the frequency of runway safety incidents/accidents, and to improve runway safety in general. The development and structure of the BBN for both RI and RE events are documented in this paper.

Green, Lawrence L.↗

Development and Execution of the RUNSAFE Runway Safety Bayesian Belief Network Model

One focus area of the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) is to improve aviation safety. Runway safety is one such thrust of investigation and research. The two primary components of this runway safety research are in runway incursion (RI) and runway excursion (RE) events. These are adverse ground-based aviation incidents that endanger crew, passengers, aircraft and perhaps other nearby people or property. A runway incursion is the incorrect presence of an aircraft, vehicle or person on the protected area of a surface designated for the landing and take-off of aircraft; one class of RI events simultaneously involves two aircraft, such as one aircraft incorrectly landing on a runway while another aircraft is taking off from the same runway. A runway excursion is an incident involving only a single aircraft defined as a veer-off or overrun off the runway surface. Within the scope of this effort at NASA Langley Research Center (LaRC), generic RI, RE and combined (RI plus RE, or RUNSAFE) event models have each been developed and implemented as a Bayesian Belief Network (BBN). Descriptions of runway safety issues from the literature searches have been used to develop the BBN models. Numerous considerations surrounding the process of developing the event models have been documented in this report. The event models were then thoroughly reviewed by a Subject Matter Expert (SME) panel through multiple knowledge elicitation sessions. Numerous improvements to the model structure (definitions, node names, node states and the connecting link topology) were made by the SME panel. Sample executions of the final RUNSAFE model have been presented herein for baseline and worst-case scenarios. Finally, a parameter sensitivity analysis for a given scenario was performed to show the risk drivers. The NASA and LaRC research in runway safety event modeling through the use of BBN technology is important for several reasons. These include: 1) providing a means to clearly understand the cause and effect patterns leading to safety issues, incidents and accidents, 2) enabling the prioritization of specialty areas needing more attention to improve aviation safety, and 3) enabling the identification of gaps within NASA's Aviation Safety funding portfolio

Green, Lawrence L.↗

Detection of lithium in the cool halo dwarfs Groombridge 1830 and HD 134439: Implications for internal stellar mixing and cosmology

Lithium abundances in halo stars, when interpreted correctly, hold the key to uncovering the primordial Li abundance Li(sub p). However, whereas standard stellar evolutionary models imply consistency in standard big bang nucleosynthesis (BBN), models with rotationally induced mixing imply a higher Li(sub p), possibly implying an inconsistency in standard BBN. We report here Li detections in two cool halo dwarfs, Gmb 1830 and HD 134439. These are the coolest and lowest Li detections in halo dwarfs to date, and are consistent with the metallicity dependence of Li depletion in published models. If the recent report of a beryllium deficiency in Gmb 1830 represents a real Be depletion, then the rotational models would be favored. We propose tests to reduce critical uncertainties.

Deliyannis, Constantine P.↗

Regular Topologies for Gigabit Wide-Area Networks: Congestion Avoidance Testbed Experiments

This document is Volume 3 of the final technical report on the work performed by SRI International (SRI) on SRI Project 8600. The document includes source listings for all software developed by SRI under this effort. Since some of our work involved the use of ST-II and the Sun Microsystems, Inc. (Sun) High-Speed Serial Interface (HSI/S) driver, we have included some of the source developed by LBL and BBN as well. In most cases, our decision to include source developed by other contractors depended on whether it was necessary to modify the original code. If we have modified the software in any way, it is included in this document. In the case of the Traffic Generator (TG), however, we have included all the ST-II software, even though BBN performed the integration, because the ST-II software is part of the standard TG release. It is important to note that all the code developed by other contractors is in the public domain, so that all software developed under this effort can be re-created from the source included here.

Denny, Barbara A.↗

Development, fabrication and calibration of a porous surface microphone in an aerofoil

The development of a porous surface microphone in an airfoil intended to measure acoustic signals in a turbulent airflow and to minimize the flow noise is described. The sensor because of its airfoil operates over a wide range of yaw angles and flow velocities without excessive flow noise. The acoustic properties of the porous materials used in the airfoil sensor and their effects on the frequency response of the sensor were analyzed and tested. An accurate airfoil was selected, having a smaller thickness-to-chord ratio and an airfoil sensor was designed. The sensor was calibrated acoustically and its flow noise evaluated in the quiet BBN wind tunnel at flow velocities up to 70 m/sec. Results are presented.

Noiseux, D. U.↗

Architectures for reasoning in parallel

The research conducted has dealt with rule-based expert systems. The algorithms that may lead to effective parallelization of them were investigated. Both the forward and backward chained control paradigms were investigated in the course of this work. The best computer architecture for the developed and investigated algorithms has been researched. Two experimental vehicles were developed to facilitate this research. They are Backpac, a parallel backward chained rule-based reasoning system and Datapac, a parallel forward chained rule-based reasoning system. Both systems have been written in Multilisp, a version of Lisp which contains the parallel construct, future. Applying the future function to a function causes the function to become a task parallel to the spawning task. Additionally, Backpac and Datapac have been run on several disparate parallel processors. The machines are an Encore Multimax with 10 processors, the Concert Multiprocessor with 64 processors, and a 32 processor BBN GP1000. Both the Concert and the GP1000 are switch-based machines. The Multimax has all its processors hung off a common bus. All are shared memory machines, but have different schemes for sharing the memory and different locales for the shared memory. The main results of the investigations come from experiments on the 10 processor Encore and the Concert with partitions of 32 or less processors. Additionally, experiments have been run with a stripped down version of EMYCIN.

Hall, Lawrence O.↗

Evaluating human performance modeling for system assessment: Promise and problems

The development and evaluation of computational human performance models is examined. An intention is to develop models which can be used to interact with system prototypes and simulations to perform system assessment. Currently LR is working on a set of models emulating cognitive, psychomotor, auditory, and visual activity for multiple operator positions of a command and control simulation system. These models, developed in conjunction with BBN Systems and Technologies, function within the simulation environment and allow for both unmanned system assessment and manned (human-in-loop) assessment of system interface and team interactions. These are relatively generic models with built-in flexibility which allows modification of some model parameters. These models have great potential for improving the efficiency and effectiveness of system design, test, and evaluation. However, the extent of the practical utility of these models is unclear. Initial verification efforts comparing model performance within the simulation to actual human operators on a similar, independent simulation have been performed and current efforts are directed at comparing human and model performance within the same simulation environment.

Patterson, Robert W.↗

Light element nucleosynthesis - A false clue?

It is proposed that the dynamically estimated value for the cosmological density parameter, Omega(dy) = 0.15 x 10 exp +/- 0.20, reflects the baryon density at decoupling, resulting in lower initial, primordial values of D and the He-3 than are observed. An early generation of massive stars, forming somewhat after decoupling, collapses to black holes with masses of about 10 exp 6.5 solar masses. If they later accrete gas and emit a quasarlike (X, gamma)-ray spectrum, then (gamma, (He-4)) photodisintegration reactions will increase D and He-3 to the observed range, leaving a high-energy background radiation field similar to that observed. The massive black holes become the dynamically observed dark matter galactic halos. This scenario obviates the need for nonbaryonic dark matter and provides a specific form for the requisite baryonic dark matter; it thus reduces the number of density parameters: Omega(0) - Omega(dy) = Omega(BBN) is approximately equal to 0.15.

Gnedin, N. IU.↗

Reciprocity-based experimental determination of dynamic forces and moments: A feasibility study

BBN Systems and Technologies has been tasked by the Georgia Tech Research Center to carry Task Assignment No. 7 for the NASA Langley Research Center to explore the feasibility of 'In-Situ Experimental Evaluation of the Source Strength of Complex Vibration Sources Utilizing Reciprocity.' The task was carried out under NASA Contract No. NAS1-19061. In flight it is not feasible to connect the vibration sources to their mounting points on the fuselage through force gauges to measure dynamic forces and moments directly. However, it is possible to measure the interior sound field or vibration response caused by these structureborne sound sources at many locations and invoke principle of reciprocity to predict the dynamic forces and moments. The work carried out in the framework of Task 7 was directed to explore the feasibility of reciprocity-based measurements of vibration forces and moments.

Ver, Istvan L.↗

Coupling of 3,8-Dibromo-1,10-Phenanthroline With 3,5-Diethynylheptyloxybenzene: A Suzuki/Miyaura Versus a Sonogashira Perspective

We report a new application of the Suzuki-Miyaura reaction whereas two bifunctional reactants, 3,8-dibromo-1,10-phenanthroline and 3,5-diethynylheptyloxylbenzene (9), yield 3,8-bis (3-ethynyl-5-heptyloxyphenylethynyl)-1,10-phenanthroline (2) efficiently (74% yield) without polymerization. This was achieved by reacting a stoichiometric amount of 9 and (Me3Si)2NLi to obtain quantitatively the monoacetylide anion of 9 (10). The latter was activated with B-methoxy-9-BBN and reacted in analogy to the alkynyl copper complex of a Sonogashira route. However, in the Sonogashira reaction, the alkynyl copper complex is present in small equilibrium concentrations and polymerization takes place even when reagents are mixed slowly. Actually the Sonogashira route gave no desired product 2, as the latter polymerizes easily via homo-coupling in the presence of air and Cu(I). Sonogashira coupling involves the palladium(0) catalyzed reaction of terminal alkynes.

Yang, Jinhua↗