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At least 19 records

Biospheric feedback effects in a synchronously coupled model of human and Earth systems

Fossil fuel combustion and land-use change are the first and second largest contributors to industrial-era increases in atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration, which is itself the largest driver of present-day climate change1. Projections of fossil fuel consumption and land-use change are thus fundamental inputs for coupled Earth system models (ESM) used to estimate the physical and biological consequences of future climate system forcing2,3. While empirical datasets are available to inform historical analyses4,5, assessments of future climate change have relied on projections of energy and land use based on energy economic models, constrained using historical and present-day data and forced with assumptions about future policy, land-use patterns, and socio-economic development trajectories6. Here we show that the influence of biospheric change – the integrated effect of climatic, ecological, and geochemical processes – on land ecosystems has a significant impact on energy, agriculture, and land-use projections for the 21st century. Such feedbacks have been ignored in previous ESM studies of future climate. We find that synchronous exposure of land ecosystem productivity in the economic system to biospheric change as it develops in an ESM results in a 10% reduction of land area used for crop cultivation; increased managed forest area and land carbon; a 15-20% decrease in global crop price; and a 17% reduction in fossil fuel emissions for a low-mid range forcing scenario7. These simulation results demonstrate that biospheric change can significantly alter primary human system forcings to the climate system. This synchronous two-way coupling approach removes inconsistencies in description of climate change between human and biosphere components of the coupled model, mitigating a major source of uncertainty identified in assessments of future climate projections8-10.

climate change↗

Decadal trends in the seasonal-cycle amplitude of terrestrial CO 2 exchange resulting from the ensemble of terrestrial biosphere models

The seasonal-cycle amplitude (SCA) of the atmosphere–ecosystem carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) exchange rate is a useful metric of the responsiveness of the terrestrial biosphere to environmental variations. It is unclear, however, what underlying mechanisms are responsible for the observed increasing trend of SCA in atmospheric CO 2 concentration. Using output data from the Multi-scale Terrestrial Model Intercomparison Project (MsTMIP), we investigated how well the SCA of atmosphere–ecosystem CO 2 exchange was simulated with 15 contemporary terrestrial ecosystem models during the period 1901–2010. Also, we made attempt to evaluate the contributions of potential mechanisms such as atmospheric CO 2 , climate, land-use, and nitrogen deposition, through factorial experiments using different combinations of forcing data. Under contemporary conditions, the simulated global-scale SCA of the cumulative net ecosystem carbon flux of most models was comparable in magnitude with the SCA of atmospheric CO 2 concentrations. Results from factorial simulation experiments showed that elevated atmospheric CO 2 exerted a strong influence on the seasonality amplification. When the model considered not only climate change but also land-use and atmospheric CO 2 changes, the majority of the models showed amplification trends of the SCAs of photosynthesis, respiration, and net ecosystem production (+0.19 % to +0.50 % yr -1 ). In the case of land-use change, it was difficult to separate the contribution of agricultural management to SCA because of inadequacies in both the data and models. The simulated amplification of SCA was approximately consistent with the observational evidence of the SCA in atmospheric CO 2 concentrations. Large inter-model differences remained, however, in the simulated global tendencies and spatial patterns of CO 2 exchanges. Further studies are required to identify a consistent explanation for the simulated and observed amplification trends, including their underlying mechanisms. Nevertheless, this study implied that monitoring of ecosystem seasonality would provide useful insights concerning ecosystem dynamics.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Effect of tectonic processes on biosphere–geosphere feedbacks across a convergent margin

The subsurface is among Earth’s largest biomes, but the extent to which microbial communities vary across tectonic plate boundaries or interact with subduction-scale geological processes remains unknown. Here we compare bacterial community composition with deep-subsurface geochemistry from 21 hot springs across the Costa Rican convergent margin. We find that cation and anion compositions of the springs reflect the dip angle and position of the underlying tectonic structure and also correlate with the bacterial community. Co-occurring microbial cliques related to cultured chemolithoautotrophs that use the reverse tricarboxylic acid cycle (rTCA) as well as abundances of metagenomic rTCA genes correlate with concentrations of slab-volatilized carbon. This, combined with carbon isotope evidence, suggests that fixation of slab-derived CO2 into biomass may support a chemolithoautotrophy-based subsurface ecosystem. We calculate that this forearc subsurface biosphere could sequester 1.4 × 10 9 to 1.4 × 10 10 mol of carbon per year, which would decrease estimates of the total carbon delivered to the mantle by 2 to 22%. Furthermore, based on the observed correlations, we suggest that distribution and composition of the subsurface bacterial community are probably affected by deep tectonic processes across the Costa Rican convergent margin and that, by sequestering carbon volatilized during subduction, these chemolithoautotrophic communities could in turn impact the geosphere.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Geologic Disposal Safety Assessment (GDSA) Biosphere Model Development

The Spent Fuel and Waste Science and Technology Campaign of the U.S. Department of Energy Office of Nuclear Energy, Office of Spent Fuel and Waste Disposition is conducting research and development on geologic disposal of spent nuclear fuel and high-level nuclear waste. This work includes the Geologic Disposal Safety Assessment (GDSA) program which is charged with development of generic deep geologic repository concepts and system performance assessment models. One part of the GDSA framework is the development of a biosphere model capable of assessing doses to potential receptors exposed to radionuclides released from geologic disposal sites. As part of the GDSA framework, a biosphere model compatible with the PFLOTRAN massively parallel subsurface flow and reactive transport code is under development. The PFLOTRAN model provides the radionuclide source term for the biosphere model. The GDSA Biosphere model then assesses the potential movement of radionuclides through the surface biosphere and the subsequent exposure to a human receptor living in the biosphere. The biosphere model includes pathways originating from the groundwater as well as pathways originating from surface water bodies that have a water exchange with a contaminated groundwater body. The pathways for human exposure include consumption of drinking water, irrigated crops, meat animals, aquatic vegetation, and animals, etc.; external exposure from irrigated ground surfaces, surface water bodies, recreational activities, etc.; and inadvertent exposures such as ingestion of contaminated soils or shower water, etc. The GDSA Biosphere model was designed to be flexible and generic in order to accommodate a variety of different sites and climate states. This presentation will present the on the purpose, design, and development progress of the GDSA Biosphere Model.

GDSA, biosphere, repository↗

Biosphere Futures: a database of social-ecological scenarios

T. Biosphere Futures (https://biospherefutures.net/) is a new online database to collect and discover scenario studies from across the world, with a specific focus on scenarios that explicitly incorporate interdependencies between humans and their supporting ecosystems. It provides access to a globally diverse collection of case studies that includes most ecosystems and regions, enabling exploration of the multifaceted ways in which the future might unfold. Together, the case studies illuminate the diversity and plurality of people’s expectations and aspirations for the future. The objective of Biosphere Futures is to promote the use of scenarios for sustainable development of the biosphere and to foster a community of practice around social-ecological scenarios. We do so by facilitating the assessment, synthesis, and comparative analysis of scenario case studies, pointing to relevant resources, and by helping practitioners and researchers to disseminate and showcase their own work. This article begins by outlining the rationale behind the creation of the database, followed by an introduction to its functionality and the criteria employed for selecting case studies. Subsequently, we present a synthesis of the first 100 case studies included in the scenarios database, highlighting emerging patterns and identifying potential avenues for further research. Finally, given that broader utilization and contributions to the database will enhance the achievement of Biosphere Futures’ objectives, we invite the creators of social-ecological scenarios to contribute additional case studies. By expanding the database’s breadth and depth, we can collectively foster a more nuanced understanding of the possible trajectories of our biosphere and enable better decision making for sustainable development.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Developing a predictive science of the biosphere requires the integration of scientific cultures

Increasing the speed of scientific progress is urgently needed to address the many challenges associated with the biosphere in the Anthropocene. Consequently, the critical question becomes: How can science most rapidly progress to address large, complex global problems? We suggest that the lag in the development of a more predictive science of the biosphere is not only because the biosphere is so much more complex, or because we do not have enough data, or are not doing enough experiments, but, in large part, because of unresolved tension between the three dominant scientific cultures that pervade the research community. We introduce and explain the concept of the three scientific cultures and present a novel analysis of their characteristics, supported by examples and a formal mathematical definition/representation of what this means and implies. The three cultures operate, to varying degrees, across all of science. However, within the biosciences, and in contrast to some of the other sciences, they remain relatively more separated, and their lack of integration has hindered their potential power and insight. Our solution to accelerating a broader, predictive science of the biosphere is to enhance integration of scientific cultures. The process of integration—Scientific Transculturalism—recognizes that the push for interdisciplinary research, in general, is just not enough. Unless these cultures of science are formally appreciated and their thinking iteratively integrated into scientific discovery and advancement, there will continue to be numerous significant challenges that will increasingly limit forecasting and prediction efforts.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Lignocellulose deconstruction in the biosphere

Microorganisms have evolved different and yet complementary mechanisms to degrade biomass in the biosphere. The chemical biology of lignocellulose deconstruction is a complex and intricate process that appears to vary in response to specific ecosystems. These microorganisms rely on simple to complex arrangements of glycoside hydrolases to conduct most of these polysaccharide depolymerization reactions and also, as discovered more recently, oxidative mechanisms via lytic polysaccharide monooxygenases or non-enzymatic Fenton reactions which are used to enhance deconstruction. It is now clear that these deconstruction mechanisms are often more efficient in the presence of the microorganisms. In general, a major fraction of the total plant biomass deconstruction in the biosphere results from the action of various microorganisms, primarily aerobic bacteria and fungi, as well as a variety of anaerobic bacteria. Beyond carbon recycling, specialized microorganisms interact with plants to manage nitrogen in the biosphere. Understanding the interplay between these organisms within or across ecosystems is crucial to further our grasp of chemical recycling in the biosphere and also enables optimization of the burgeoning plant-based bioeconomy.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗

Role of the Terrestrial Biosphere in Atmospheric Chemistry and Climate

The terrestrial biosphere–atmosphere interface provides a key chemical, biological, and physical lower boundary for the atmosphere. The presence of vegetation itself modifies the physical boundary, or the biogeophysical aspects of the system, by controlling important climate drivers such as soil moisture, light environment, and temperature. The leaf surface area of the terrestrial biosphere provides additional surface area for emissions, and it can be up to 55% of the total Earth’s surface area during the boreal summer. Vegetation also influences the biogeochemical aspects of the system by emitting a broad suite of reactive trace gases such as biogenic volatile organic compound (BVOC) emissions and climate-relevant primary biological aerosol particles (PBAP). Many of these emissions are a function of meteorological and climatological conditions at the surface, including temperature, light environment, soil moisture, and winds. Once emitted, they can be processed in the troposphere through a suite of chemical reactions. BVOC can contribute to the formation of ozone and secondary organic aerosols (SOA), and PBAP can rupture to form smaller particles with climatic relevance. These emissions and subsequent aerosol products can influence atmospheric processes that affect the surface climate, such as the attenuation of radiation, the formation of greenhouse gases such as ozone that can feedback to surface air temperature, and the alteration of clouds and subsequent precipitation. These atmospheric changes can then feedback to the land surface and emissions themselves, creating positive or negative feedback loops that can dampen or amplify the emission response. For the dominant BVOC isoprene, the feedback response to temperature can be positive or negative depending on ambient temperatures that drive isoprene emissions. The feedback response to soil moisture and precipitation can be positive, negative, or uncoupled depending on the moisture content of the soil and the total atmospheric aerosol loading. For light, the isoprene response can be positive or negative depending on the role of diffuse light. Overall, these feedbacks highlight the dynamical response of the biosphere to changing atmospheric conditions across a range of time scales, from minutes for trace gases and aerosols, to months for phenological changes, to years for land cover and land use change. Here, the dynamic aspect of this system requires us to understand, simulate, and predict the complex feedbacks between the biosphere and atmosphere and understand their role in the simulation and understanding of climate and global change. From the observational perspective, these feedbacks are challenging to identify in observations, and predictive modeling tools provide a crucial link for understanding how these feedbacks will change under warming climate scenarios.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

The microbial rare biosphere: current concepts, methods and ecological principles

ABSTRACT Our ability to describe the highly diverse pool of low abundance populations present in natural microbial communities is increasing at an unprecedented pace. Yet we currently lack an integrative view of the key taxa, functions and metabolic activity which make-up this communal pool, usually referred to as the ‘rare biosphere’, across the domains of life. In this context, this review examines the microbial rare biosphere in its broader sense, providing an historical perspective on representative studies which enabled to bridge the concept from macroecology to microbial ecology. It then addresses our current knowledge of the prokaryotic rare biosphere, and covers emerging insights into the ecology, taxonomy and evolution of low abundance microeukaryotic, viral and host-associated communities. We also review recent methodological advances and provide a synthetic overview on how the rare biosphere fits into different conceptual models used to explain microbial community assembly mechanisms, composition and function.

Pascoal, Francisco↗

Preliminary Feasibility Study of a Hybrid Solar and Modular Pumped Storage Hydro System at Biosphere 2

In this study, the preliminary feasibility of a hybrid solar and modular pumped storage system designed for high energy independence at Biosphere 2 is assessed. The system consists of an array of solar PV panels that generate electricity during the day to power both Biosphere 2 and a pump that sends water through a pipe to a tank at a high elevation. When solar power is not available, the water is released back down the pipe towards a tank at a lower elevation, where it passes through a hydraulic water turbine to generate hydroelectricity to power Biosphere 2. The hybrid system is sized to generate and store enough energy to enable Biosphere 2 to operate without a grid interconnection on an average day.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

A Modified Vegetation Photosynthesis and Respiration Model (VPRM) for the Eastern USA and Canada, Evaluated With Comparison to Atmospheric Observations and Other Biospheric Models

Atmospheric CO 2 measurements from a dense surface network can help to evaluate terrestrial biosphere model (TBM) simulations of Net Ecosystem Exchange (NEE) with two key benefits. First, gridded CO 2 flux estimates can be evaluated over regional scales, not possible using flux tower observations at discrete locations for model evaluation. Second, TBM ability to explain atmospheric CO 2 fluctuations due to the biosphere can be directly tested, an important objective for anthropogenic emissions monitoring using atmospheric observations. Here, we customize the Vegetation Photosynthesis and Respiration Model (VPRM) for an eastern North American domain with strong biological activity upwind of urban areas. Parameters are optimized using flux tower observations from a historical database with sites in (and near) the domain. In addition, the respiration model (originally a linear function of temperature) is modified to account for impacts of changing foliage, non-linear temperature, and water stress. Flux estimates from VPRM, the Carnegie-Ames-Stanford Approach (CASA) model and the Simple Biosphere Model v4 (SiB4), are convolved with footprints from atmospheric transport models for evaluation with CO 2 observations at 21 towers in the domain, with roughly half of the towers used here for the first time. Results show that the new respiration model in VPRM helps to correct a growing season sink bias in the atmosphere associated with underestimated summertime respiration using the original model with annual parameters. The new VPRM also better explains fine-scale atmospheric CO 2 variability compared to other TBMs, due to higher resolution diagnostic phenology, the new respiration model, domain-specific parameters, and high-quality input data sets.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Review Guidelines for Biosphere Safety Assessment of Low-Level Waste Disposal Repository in Taiwan - 19606

Conducting reviews of radiological dose assessments is a crucial step toward the approval of long-term radiological safety requirements for low-level radioactive waste (LLW) disposal facilities. However, the concentration of radionuclides released from the near field into the biosphere and the radiation exposure levels to an individual can influence the performance acceptability of the LLW disposal facility and safety of the disposal environment. Therefore, all LLW must be managed and disposed of such that it minimizes risk to individuals and the environment. A dose of 0.25 mSv/year is the limit for individuals expected to receive the highest level of exposure to residual radioactivity. In Taiwan, a review for license applications has been proposed for LLW disposal facilities. These review guidelines are based on the Standard Review Plan (NUREG-1200) and are amended according to the environmental conditions in Taiwan. These guidelines can help reviewers to perform safety assessment reviews of applications for the construction and operation of LLW disposal facilities. The review guidelines for biosphere safety assessment include radiological dose assessment, description of waste characteristics, radionuclide transport characteristics, radiation dose under normal and unusual conditions, radionuclide release into the biosphere, and interpretation of evaluation results in various transfer mechanisms. These guidelines can also serve as references for regulatory departments conducting safety assessments of radiological doses in LLW disposal facilities in Taiwan. (authors)

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

Global gross primary production simulated by three terrestrial biosphere models to analyse smoothing of limiting rates

Processed global terrestrial gross primary production (GPP) from three terrestrial biosphere models (TBMs). Two simulations were run with each model, one that selects the rate limiting process of photosynthesis based on the minimum of the potential rates (following Farquhar et al. 1980) and the other that uses quadratic smoothing between the potential rates (following Collatz et al. 1991). The three TBMs are: 1) the Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM) land model (ELM) (release: v1.1.0) (Burrows et al., 2020), a coupled carbon, nitrogen, and phosphorus model with sun/shade big-leaf canopy photosynthesis scaling. 2) The Functionally Assembled Terrestrial Ecosystem Simulator (FATES, tag: sci.1.30.0_api.8.0.0) (Koven et al., 2019), coupled with the Community Land Model (CLM, version 5; Lawrence et al., 2019), a carbon-only vegetation demography model with multi-leaf and multi-canopy layers for scaling photosynthesis, and with a leaf area index (LAI) optimisation scheme. 3) The Sheffield Dynamic Global Vegetation Model (SDGVM, tag: Walkeretal2020_GCB), a carbon-only model with multi-leaf-layer canopy photosynthesis scaling and also with an LAI optimisation scheme (Walker et al., 2017; Woodward & Lomas, 2004). These data were generated to evaluate the effect of Collatz smoothing of limiting rates on simulated GPP across a range of terrestrial biosphere models. Analysis of results can be found in Walker et al. (2020). This dataset is comprised of R scripts to process data and produce figures and .RDS files, a binary format specific to R and read with the 'readRDS' function.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Exploring the Potential of Using Carbonyl Sulfide to Track the Urban Biosphere Signal

Abstract Cities are implementing additional urban green as a means to capture CO 2 and become more carbon neutral. However, cities are complex systems where anthropogenic and natural components of the CO 2 budget interact with each other, and the ability to measure the efficacy of such measures is still not properly addressed. There is still a high degree of uncertainty in determining the contribution of the vegetation signal, which furthermore confounds the use of CO 2 mole fraction measurements for inferring anthropogenic emissions of CO 2 . Carbonyl sulfide (OCS) is a tracer of photosynthesis which can aid in constraining the biosphere signal. This study explores the potential of using OCS to track the urban biosphere signal. We used the Sulfur Transport and dEposition Model (STEM) to simulate the OCS concentrations and the Carnegie Ames Stanford Approach ecosystem model to simulate global CO 2 fluxes over the Bay Area of San Francisco during March 2015. Two observation towers provided measurements of OCS and CO 2 : The Sutro tower in San Francisco (upwind from the area of study providing background observations), and a tower located at Sandia National Laboratories in Livermore (downwind of the highly urbanized San Francisco region). Our results show that the STEM model works better under stable marine influence, and that the boundary layer height and entrainment are driving the diurnal changes in OCS and CO 2 at the downwind Sandia site. However, the STEM model needs to better represent the transport and boundary layer variability, and improved estimates of gross primary productivity for characterizing the urban biosphere signal are needed.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Are Terrestrial Biosphere Models Fit for Simulating the Global Land Carbon Sink?

The Global Carbon Project estimates that the terrestrial biosphere has absorbed about one-third of anthropogenic CO 2 emissions during the 1959–2019 period. This sink-estimate is produced by an ensemble of terrestrial biosphere models and is consistent with the land uptake inferred from the residual of emissions and ocean uptake. The purpose of our study is to understand how well terrestrial biosphere models reproduce the processes that drive the terrestrial carbon sink. One challenge is to decide what level of agreement between model output and observation-based reference data is adequate considering that reference data are prone to uncertainties. To define such a level of agreement, we compute benchmark scores that quantify the similarity between independently derived reference data sets using multiple statistical metrics. Models are considered to perform well if their model scores reach benchmark scores. Our results show that reference data can differ considerably, causing benchmark scores to be low. Model scores are often of similar magnitude as benchmark scores, implying that model performance is reasonable given how different reference data are. While model performance is encouraging, ample potential for improvements remains, including a reduction in a positive leaf area index bias, improved representations of processes that govern soil organic carbon in high latitudes, and an assessment of causes that drive the inter-model spread of gross primary productivity in boreal regions and humid tropics. The success of future model development will increasingly depend on our capacity to reduce and account for observational uncertainties.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Carboxydotrophy potential of uncultivated Hydrothermarchaeota from the subseafloor crustal biosphere

Abstract The exploration of Earth’s terrestrial subsurface biosphere has led to the discovery of several new archaeal lineages of evolutionary significance. Similarly, the deep subseafloor crustal biosphere also harbors many unique, uncultured archaeal taxa, including those belonging to Candidatus Hydrothermarchaeota, formerly known as Marine Benthic Group-E. Recently, Hydrothermarchaeota was identified as an abundant lineage of Juan de Fuca Ridge flank crustal fluids, suggesting its adaptation to this extreme environment. Through the investigation of single-cell and metagenome-assembled genomes, we provide insight into the lineage’s evolutionary history and metabolic potential. Phylogenomic analysis reveals the Hydrothermarchaeota to be an early-branching archaeal phylum, branching between the superphylum DPANN, Euryarchaeota, and Asgard lineages. Hydrothermarchaeota genomes suggest a potential for dissimilative and assimilative carbon monoxide oxidation (carboxydotrophy), as well as sulfate and nitrate reduction. There is also a prevalence of chemotaxis and motility genes, indicating adaptive strategies for this nutrient-limited fluid-rock environment. These findings provide the first genomic interpretations of the Hydrothermarchaeota phylum and highlight the anoxic, hot, deep marine crustal biosphere as an important habitat for understanding the evolution of early life.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Simulating estimation of California fossil fuel and biosphere carbon dioxide exchanges combining in situ tower and satellite column observations

Here, we report simulation experiments estimating the uncertainties in California regional fossil fuel and biosphere CO 2 exchanges that might be obtained by using an atmospheric inverse modeling system driven by the combination of ground-based observations of radiocarbon and total CO 2 , together with column-mean CO 2 observations from NASA's Orbiting Carbon Observatory (OCO-2). The work includes an initial examination of statistical uncertainties in prior models for CO 2 exchange, in radiocarbon-based fossil fuel CO 2 measurements, in OCO-2 measurements, and in a regional atmospheric transport modeling system. Using these nominal assumptions for measurement and model uncertainties, we find that flask measurements of radiocarbon and total CO 2 at 10 towers can be used to distinguish between different fossil fuel emission data products for major urban regions of California. We then show that the combination of flask and OCO-2 observations yields posterior uncertainties in monthly-mean fossil fuel emissions of ~5–10%, levels likely useful for policy relevant evaluation of bottom-up fossil fuel emission estimates. Similarly, we find that inversions yield uncertainties in monthly biosphere CO 2 exchange of ~6%–12%, depending on season, providing useful information on net carbon uptake in California's forests and agricultural lands. Finally, initial sensitivity analysis suggests that obtaining the above results requires control of systematic biases below approximately 0.5 ppm, placing requirements on accuracy of the atmospheric measurements, background subtraction, and atmospheric transport modeling.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗