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NASA Langley Systems Analysis & Concepts Directorate Technology Assessment/Portfolio Analysis

Systems analysis develops and documents candidate mission and architectures, associated system concepts, enabling capabilities and investment strategies to achieve NASA s strategic objectives. The technology assessment process connects the mission and architectures to the investment strategies. In order to successfully implement a technology assessment, there is a need to collect, manipulate, analyze, document, and disseminate technology-related information. Information must be collected and organized on the wide variety of potentially applicable technologies, including: previous research results, key technical parameters and characteristics, technology readiness levels, relationships to other technologies, costs, and potential barriers and risks. This information must be manipulated to facilitate planning and documentation. An assessment is included of the programmatic and technical risks associated with each technology task as well as potential risk mitigation plans. Risks are assessed and tracked in terms of likelihood of the risk occurring and consequences of the risk if it does occur. The risk assessments take into account cost, schedule, and technical risk dimensions. Assessment data must be simplified for presentation to decision makers. The Systems Analysis and Concepts Directorate (SACD) at NASA Langley Research Center has a wealth of experience in performing Technology Assessment and Portfolio Analysis as this has been a business line since 1978.

Cavanaugh, Stephen↗

A systems approach to the commercialization of space communications technology - The NASA/JPL Mobile Satellite Program

This paper discusss the systems approach taken by NASA and the Jet Propulsion Laboratory in the commercialization of land-mobile satellite services (LMSS) in the United States. As the lead center for NASA's Mobile Satellite Program, JPL was involved in identifying and addressing many of the key barriers to commercialization of mobile satellite communications, including technical, economic, regulatory and institutional risks, or uncertainties. The systems engineering approach described here was used to mitigate these risks. The result was the development and implementation of the JPL Mobile Satellite Experiment Project. This Project included not only technology development, but also studies to support NASA in the definition of the regulatory, market, and investment environments within which LMSS would evolve and eventually operate, as well as initiatives to mitigate their associated commercialization risks. The end result of these government-led endeavors was the acceleration of the introduction of commercial mobile satellite services, both nationally and internationally.

Weber, William J., III↗

Coal gasifier cogeneration powerplant project

Industrial cogeneration and utility pr systems were analyzed and a conceptual design study was conducted to evaluate the economic feasibility of a coal gasifier power plant for NASA Lewis Research Center. Site location, plant size, and electric power demand were considered in criteria developed for screening and selecting candidates that could use a wide variety of coals, including that from Ohio. A fluidized bed gasifier concept was chosen as the baseline design and key components of the powerplant were technically assessed. No barriers to environmental acceptability are foreseen. If funded, the powerplant will not only meet the needs of the research center, but will reduce the commercial risk for utilities and industries by fully verifying and demonstrating the technology, thus accelerating commercialization.

Shure, L. I.↗

Barriers to the utilization of synthetic fuels for transportation

The principal types of engines for transportation uses are reviewed and the specifications for conventional fuels are compared with specifications for synthetic fuels. Synfuel processes nearing the commercialization phase are reviewed. The barriers to using synfuels can be classified into four groups: technical, such as the uncertainty that a new engine design can satisfy the desired performance criteria; environmental, such as the risk that the engine emissions cannot meet the applicable environmental standards; economic, including the cost of using a synfuel relative to conventional transportation fuels; and market, involving market penetration by offering new engines, establishing new distribution systems and/or changing user expectations.

Parker, H. W.↗

Modelling the Risks Remotely Piloted Aircraft Pose to People on the Ground

Worldwide there is much e ort being directed towards the development of a framework of air- worthiness regulations for remotely piloted aircraft systems (RPAS). It is now broadly accepted that regulations should have a strong foundation in, and traceability to, the management of the safety risks. Existing risk models for RPAS operations do not provide a simple means for incorporating the wide range of technical and operational controls into the risk analysis and evaluation processes. This paper describes a new approach for modelling and evaluating the risks associated with RPAS operations near populous areas based on the barrier bow tie (BBT) model. A BBT model is used to structure the underlying risk management problem. The model focuses risk analysis, evaluation, and decision making activities on the devices, people, and processes that can be employed to reduce risk. The BBT model and a comprehensive set of example risk controls are presented. The general model can be applied to any RPAS operation. The foundations for quantitative and qualitative assessments using a BBT model are also presented. The modelling and evaluation framework is illustrated through its application to a case-study rotary wing RPAS for two operational scenarios. The model can be used as a basis for determining airworthiness certification requirements for RPAS.

Barrier bow tie model↗

Commercial use of space - The space business era

Progress and avenues being explored by NASA to hasten the commercialization of space are described. A task force has recommended that the effort begin at once, that bureaucratic barriers to commercial space activities be removed, and that a partnership between government and industry be seriously explored. The government role is to establish links with private industry, invest in high-leverage technologies and space facilities which will be attractive to commercial ventures, and contribute to commercial enterprises where risks are high and significant economic benefits can be foreseen. The government/industry relationship can be legally evinced by MOUs, joint endeavor agreements, technical exchange agreements and industrial guest investigator arrangements. The Space Station is the first step in that it allows Americans to live and work in space. It is expected that international participation in Space Station development and utilization will accelerate the space business era.

Griffin, G. D.↗

Applying Costs, Risks and Values Evaluation (CRAVE) methodology to Engineering Support Request (ESR) prioritization

Given limited budget, the problem of prioritization among Engineering Support Requests (ESR's) with varied sizes, shapes, and colors is a difficult one. At the Kennedy Space Center (KSC), the recently developed 4-Matrix (4-M) method represents a step in the right direction as it attempts to combine the traditional criteria of technical merits only with the new concern for cost-effectiveness. However, the 4-M method was not adequately successful in the actual prioritization of ESRs for the fiscal year 1995 (FY95). This research identifies a number of design issues that should help us to develop better methods. It emphasizes that given the variety and diversity of ESR's one should not expect that a single method could help in the assessment of all ESR's. One conclusion is that a methodology such as Costs, Risks, and Values Evaluation (CRAVE) should be adopted. It also is clear that the development of methods such as 4-M requires input not only from engineers with technical expertise in ESR's but also from personnel with adequate background in the theory and practice of cost-effectiveness analysis. At KSC, ESR prioritization is one part of the Ground Support Working Teams (GSWT) Integration Process. It was discovered that the more important barriers to the incorporation of cost-effectiveness considerations in ESR prioritization lie in this process. The culture of integration, and the corresponding structure of review by a committee of peers, is not conducive to the analysis and confrontation necessary in the assessment and prioritization of ESR's. Without assistance from appropriately trained analysts charged with the responsibility to analyze and be confrontational about each ESR, the GSWT steering committee will continue to make its decisions based on incomplete understanding, inconsistent numbers, and at times, colored facts. The current organizational separation of the prioritization and the funding processes is also identified as an important barrier to the pursuit of cost-effectiveness. Perhaps the greatest barrier is that, at the working level, KSC's culture is so preoccupied with technical concerns that it seems almost oblivious to any cost concerns, let alone cost-effectiveness concerns. It is recommended that we must urgently begin to change that culture and seek a better balance between these two concerns.

Joglekar, Prafulla N.↗

Comparison of Traditional and Innovative Techniques to Solve Technical Challenges

Although NASA has an adequate food system for current missions, research is required to accommodate new requirements for future NASA exploration missions. The Inadequate Food System risk reflects the need to develop requirements and technologies that will enable NASA to provide the crew with a safe, nutritious and acceptable food system while effectively balancing appropriate resources such as mass, volume, and crew time in exploratory missions. As we go deeper into space or spend more time on the International Space Station (ISS), there will be requirements for packaged food to be stored for 3 5 years. New food packaging technologies are needed that have adequate oxygen and water barrier properties to maintain the foods' quality over this extended shelf life. NASA has been unsuccessful in identify packaging materials that meet the necessary requirements when using several traditional routes including literature reviews, workshops, and internal shelf life studies on foods packaged in various packaging materials. Small Business Innovative Research grants were used for accelerating food packaging materials research with limited success. In order to accelerate the process, a theoretical challenge was submitted to InnoCentive resulting in a partial award. A similar food packaging challenge was submitted to Yet2.com and several potential commercial packaging material suppliers were identified that, at least partially, met the requirements. Comparisons and results of these challenges will be discussed.

Perchonok, Michele↗

Overcoming the Adoption Barrier to Electric Flight

Electrically-powered aircraft can enable dramatic increases in efficiency and reliability, reduced emissions, and reduced noise as compared to today's combustion-powered aircraft. This paper describes a novel flight demonstration concept that will enable the benefits of electric propulsion, while keeping the extraordinary convenience and utility of common fuels available at today's airports. A critical gap in airborne electric propulsion research is addressed by accommodating adoption at the integrated aircraft-airport systems level, using a confluence of innovative but proven concepts and technologies in power generation and electricity storage that need to reside only on the airframe. Technical discriminators of this demonstrator concept include (1) a novel, high-efficiency power system that utilizes advanced solid oxide fuel cells originally developed for ultra-long-endurance aircraft, coupled with (2) a high-efficiency, high-power electric propulsion system selected from mature products to reduce technical risk, assembled into (3) a modern, high-performance demonstration platform to provide useful and compelling data, both for the targeted early adopters and the eventual commercial market.

Borer, Nicholas K.↗

Damage Tolerance Testing of a NASA TransHab Derivative Woven Inflatable Module

Current options for Lunar habitat architecture include inflatable habitats and airlocks. Inflatable structures can have mass and volume advantages over conventional structures. Inflatable structures are perceived to carry additional risk because they are at a lower Technical Readiness Level (TRL) than conventional metallic structures. One of the risks associated with inflatable structures is understanding the tolerance to component damage and the resulting behavior of the system after the damage is introduced. The Damage Tolerance Test (DTT) is designed to study the structural integrity of an expandable structure during and subsequent to induced damage. The TransHab Project developed an experimental inflatable module developed at Johnson Space Center in the 1990's. The TransHab design was originally envisioned for use in Mars Transits but was also studied as a potential habitat for the International Space Station (ISS). The design of the TransHab module was based on a woven design using an Aramid fabric. Testing of this design demonstrated a high level of predictability and repeatability and good correlation with analytical predictions of stresses and deflections. Based on JSC's experience with the design and analysis of woven inflatable structures, the Damage Tolerance Test article was designed and fabricated using a woven design. The Damage Tolerance Test Article consists of a load bearing restraint layer, a bladder or gas barrier, and a structural metallic core. The test article restraint layer is fabricated from one inch wide Kevlar webbing that is woven in a basket weave pattern. Underneath the structural restraint layer is the bladder or gas barrier. For this test the bladder was required to maintain pressure for testing only and was not representative of a flight design. The bladder and structural restraint layer attach to the structural core of the module at steel bulkheads at each end. The two bulkheads are separated by a 10 foot center tube which provides the structural support for the module when in a non-inflated state as well as resists a portion of the axial load when pressurized. The longitudinal members of the structural restraint layer are attached to the bulkheads using a series of clevises that are bolted to the bulkheads. Strain gages are placed on the clevises that can measure change in load when the structural restraint is inflated. The test module is 88 inches in diameter and 120 inches in height. The objectives of the DTT are to (1) verify the structural integrity of the assembled and pressurized structure when a section of the structural restraint layer is cut by a foreign object, and (2) verify the load distribution of the structural restraint layer during pressurization, before and after the structural restraint layer is severed. For this test, a longitudinal structural restraint strap will be severed using a linear shape charge. The linear shape charge was designed specifically for this application to cut only a single longitudinal strap, while not damaging the bladder. An array of strain gages were located at the bulkhead mounted clevises where the longitudinal restraint layer straps are attached. The DTT article was inflated to 45 psig, 25% of the ultimate design pressure, and one of the one-inch wide longitudinal structural members was severed. Strain gage measurements of loading in an array of longitudinal straps were taken throughout pressurization of the module to 45 psig, before firing of the linear shape charge, and after firing of the shape charge and separation of the strap. During testing not only were the original objectives met but better than expected results occurred. This paper will discuss space inflatable structures, damage tolerance analysis, test results, and applicability to the Lunar architecture.

Edgecombe, John↗

Assessment of lnternational Space Station (ISS) Lithium-ion Battery Thermal Runaway (TR)

This task was developed in the wake of the Boeing 787 Dreamliner lithium-ion battery TR incidents of January 2013 and January 2014. The Electrical Power Technical Discipline Team supported the Dreamliner investigations and has followed up by applying lessons learned to conduct an introspective evaluation of NASA's risk of similar incidents in its own lithium-ion battery deployments. This activity has demonstrated that historically NASA, like Boeing and others in the aerospace industry, has emphasized the prevention of TR in a single cell within the battery (e.g., cell screening) but has not considered TR severity-reducing measures in the event of a single-cell TR event. center dotIn the recent update of the battery safety standard (JSC 20793) to address this paradigm shift, the NASA community included requirements for assessing TR severity and identifying simple, low-cost severity reduction measures. This task will serve as a pathfinder for meeting those requirements and will specifically look at a number of different lithium-ion batteries currently in the design pipeline within the ISS Program batteries that, should they fail in a Dreamliner-like incident, could result in catastrophic consequences. This test is an abuse test to understand the heat transfer properties of the cell and ORU in thermal runaway, with radiant barriers in place in a flight like test in on orbit conditions. This includes studying the heat flow and distribution in the ORU. This data will be used to validate the thermal runaway analysis. This test does not cover the ambient pressure case. center dotThere is no pass/ fail criteria for this test.

Graika, Jason↗

Modular Open Systems Approach (MOSA) for a Robust Commercial Lunar Ecosystem

Modular Open Systems Approaches (MOSAs) have been adopted worldwide to solve a myriad of challenges. Open systems by their nature maximize accessibility, reduce barriers to entry, and prevent vendor lock. Similarly, modularity speeds innovation, fosters design re-use, and enables incremental development & growth. Architectures developed using a MOSA synergize the benefits of modularity and open systems to produce better products at lower developmental cost and risk, saving the consumer money while allowing greater developer profit margins. Specific to the challenge of lunar exploration, a MOSA will ensure interoperability among diverse commercial, government, and international partners. Complex spaceflight systems can be assembled, upgraded, and serviced far more easily and with greater commercial involvement with the use of a MOSA. By allowing partners to self-limit their scope to key strengths, they can focus on producing premier components without carrying the high risk and associated cost of auxiliary tasks they don’t specialize in. We survey commercial and Department of Defense (DoD) lessons learned in past decades, discuss DoD robotics’ experience in Iraq and Afghanistan (first without then with MOSAs), and analyze the flourishing commercial ecosystem that has resulted from DoD MOSA adoption. We explore the future of lunar operations to demonstrate the criticality of MOSA adoption in key areas at the right time. Two specific lunar technical fields are studied as examples: Power and In-Situ Resource Utilization (ISRU). Finally, recognizing that the lunar ISRU campaign will be an eminently collaborative operation requiring seamless partnering among diverse commercial, government, and international partners, a comprehensive technology development ecosystem is explored aimed at enabling ISRU in a way that systems and components are affordable for commercial partners to design, build, and sustain.

Mathew DeMinico↗

Unmanned Aircraft Systems (UAS) Integration in the National Airspace System (NAS) Project KDP-C Review

The topics discussed are the UAS-NAS project life-cycle and ARMD thrust flow down, as well as the UAS environments and how we operate in those environments. NASA's Armstrong Flight Research Center at Edwards, CA, is leading a project designed to help integrate unmanned air vehicles into the world around us. The Unmanned Aircraft Systems Integration in the National Airspace System project, or UAS in the NAS, will contribute capabilities designed to reduce technical barriers related to safety and operational challenges associated with enabling routine UAS access to the NAS. The project falls under the Integrated Systems Research Program office managed at NASA Headquarters by the agency's Aeronautics Research Mission Directorate. NASA's four aeronautics research centers - Armstrong, Ames Research Center, Langley Research Center, and Glenn Research Center - are part of the technology development project. With the use and diversity of unmanned aircraft growing rapidly, new uses for these vehicles are constantly being considered. Unmanned aircraft promise new ways of increasing efficiency, reducing costs, enhancing safety and saving lives 460265main_ED10-0132-16_full.jpg Unmanned aircraft systems such as NASA's Global Hawks (above) and Predator B named Ikhana (below), along with numerous other unmanned aircraft systems large and small, are the prime focus of the UAS in the NAS effort to integrate them into the national airspace. Credits: NASA Photos 710580main_ED07-0243-37_full.jpg The UAS in the NAS project envisions performance-based routine access to all segments of the national airspace for all unmanned aircraft system classes, once all safety-related and technical barriers are overcome. The project will provide critical data to such key stakeholders and customers as the Federal Aviation Administration and RTCA Special Committee 203 (formerly the Radio Technical Commission for Aeronautics) by conducting integrated, relevant system-level tests to adequately address safety and operational challenges of national airspace access by unmanned aircraft systems, or UAS. In the process, the project will work with other key stakeholders to define necessary deliverables and products to help enable such access. Within the project, NASA is focusing on five sub-projects. These five focus areas include assurance of safe separation of unmanned aircraft from manned aircraft when flying in the national airspace; safety-critical command and control systems and radio frequencies to enable safe operation of UAS; human factors issues for ground control stations; airworthiness certification standards for UAS avionics and integrated tests and evaluation designed to determine the viability of emerging UAS technology. Five Focus Areas of the UAS Integration in the NAS Project Separation Assurance Provide an assessment of how planned Next Generation Air Transportation System (NextGen) separation assurance systems, with different functional allocations, perform for UAS in mixed operations with manned aircraft Assess the applicability to UAS and the performance of NASA NextGen separation assurance systems in flight tests with realistic latencies and uncertain trajectories Assess functional allocations ranging from today's ground-based, controller-provided aircraft separation to fully autonomous airborne self-separation Communications Develop data and rationale to obtain appropriate frequency spectrum allocations to enable safe and efficient operation of UAS in the NAS Develop and validate candidate secure safety-critical command and control system/subsystem test equipment for UAS that complies with UAS international/national frequency regulations, standards and recommended practices and minimum operational and aviation system performance standards for UAS Perform analysis to support recommendations for integration of safety-critical command and control systems and air traffic control communications to ensure safe and efficient operation of UAS in the NAS Human Systems Integration Develop a research test bed and database to provide data and proof of concept for GCS - ground control station - operations in the NAS Coordinate with standards organizations to develop human-factors guidelines for GCS operation in the NAS Certification Define a UAS classification scheme and approach to determining Federal Aviation Regulation airworthiness requirements applicable to all UAS digital avionics Provide hazard and risk-related data to support development of type design criteria and best development practices Integrated Tests and Evaluation Integrate and test mature concepts from technical elements to demonstrate and test viability Evaluate the performance of technology development in a relevant environment (full-mission, human-in-the-loop simulations and flight tests)

outreach↗