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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 19 records

An iterative bidirectional gradient boosting approach for CVR baseline estimation

Here this paper presents a novel Iterative Bidirectional Gradient Boosting Model (IBi-GBM) for estimating the baseline of Conservation Voltage Reduction (CVR) programs. In contrast to many existing methods, we treat CVR baseline estimation as a missing data retrieval problem. The approach involves dividing the load and its corresponding temperature profiles into three periods: pre-CVR, CVR, and post-CVR. To restore the missing load profile during the CVR period, the method employs a three-step process. First, a forward-pass GBM is executed using data from the pre-CVR period as inputs. Subsequently, a backward-pass GBM is applied using data from the post-CVR period. The two restored load profiles are reconciled, considering pre-calculated weights derived from forecasting accuracy, and only the leftmost and rightmost points are retained. The newly restored points are then included as inputs for the subsequent iteration. This iterative procedure continues until the original load data in the CVR period is fully restored. We develop IBi-GBM using actual smart meter and Supervisory Control and Data Acquisition (SCADA) data. Our results demonstrate that IBi-GBM exhibits robust performance across various data resolutions and in different seasons and outperforms existing methods by achieving a 1-2% reduction in normalized Root Mean Square Error (nRMSE).

42 ENGINEERING↗

Methods of correction for the 'wet' atmosphere in estimating baseline lengths from VLBI

The error in VLBI estimates of baseline length caused by unmodelled variations in the propagation path through the atmosphere is greater for longer baselines. Series of estimates of baseline lengths obtained using different methods to correct for the propagation delay caused by atmospheric water vapor are presented and discussed. The main methods are use of data from: a water-vapor radiometer (WVR) and Kalman-filtering of the VLBI data themselves to estimate the propagation delay. Since the longest timespan of WVR data associated with geodetic VLBI experiments was obtained at the Onsala Space Observatory in Sweden, results are presented for the following three baselines: (1) Onsala-Wettzell, FRG (920 km), (2) Onsala-Haystack/Westford, MA (5600 km), and (3) Onsala-Owens Valley (7914 km).

Elgered, G.↗

The effect of tracking network configuration on GPS baseline estimates for the CASA Uno experiment

The effect of the tracking network on long (greater than 100 km) GPS baseline estimates was estimated using various subsets of the global tracking network initiated by the first Central and South America (CASA Uno) experiment. It was found that best results could be obtained with a global tacking network consisting of three U.S. stations, two sites in the southwestern Pacific, and two sites in Europe. In comparison with smaller subsets, this global network improved the baseline repeatability, the resolution of carrier phase cycle ambiguities, and formal errors of the orbit estimates.

Wolf, S. Kornreich↗

Precise regional baseline estimation using a priori orbital information

A solution using GPS measurements acquired during the CASA Uno campaign has resulted in 3-4 mm horizontal daily baseline repeatability and 13 mm vertical repeatability for a 729 km baseline, located in North America. The agreement with VLBI is at the level of 10-20 mm for all components. The results were obtained with the GIPSY orbit determination and baseline estimation software and are based on five single-day data arcs spanning the 20, 21, 25, 26, and 27 of January, 1988. The estimation strategy included resolving the carrier phase integer ambiguities, utilizing an optial set of fixed reference stations, and constraining GPS orbit parameters by applying a priori information. A multiday GPS orbit and baseline solution has yielded similar 2-4 mm horizontal daily repeatabilities for the same baseline, consistent with the constrained single-day arc solutions. The application of weak constraints to the orbital state for single-day data arcs produces solutions which approach the precise orbits obtained with unconstrained multiday arc solutions.

Lindqwister, Ulf J.↗

Baseline estimation from simultaneous satellite laser tracking

Simultaneous Range Differences (SRDs) to Lageos are obtained by dividing the observing stations into pairs with quasi-simultaneous observations. For each of those pairs the station with the least number of observations is identified, and at its observing epochs interpolated ranges for the alternate station are generated. The SRD observables are obtained by subtracting the actually observed laser range of the station having the least number of observations from the interpolated ranges of the alternate station. On the basis of these observables semidynamic single baseline solutions were performed. The aim of these solutions is to further develop and implement the SRD method in the real data environment, to assess its accuracy, its advantages and disadvantages as related to the range dynamic mode methods, when the baselines are the only parameters of interest. Baselines, using simultaneous laser range observations to Lageos, were also estimated through the purely geometric method. These baselines formed the standards the standards of comparison in the accuracy assessment of the SRD method when compared to that of the range dynamic mode methods. On the basis of this comparison it was concluded that for baselines of regional extent the SRD method is very effective, efficient, and at least as accurate as the range dynamic mode methods, and that on the basis of a simple orbital modeling and a limited orbit adjustment. The SRD method is insensitive to the inconsistencies affecting the terrestrial reference frame and simultaneous adjustment of the Earth Rotation Parameters (ERPs) is not necessary.

Dedes, George C.↗

Estimating Baselines From Constrained Data On GPS Orbits

Method of processing measurements of signals received at terrestrial stations from satellites in Global Positioning System (GPS) increases precision of estimates of both orbits of GPS satellites and locations of stations, computed from measurement and orbital data. Involves network of fiducial GPS stations collocated with very-long-baseline-interferometry (VLBI) stations, for which independent VLBI determinations of baselines available. Locations of stations used to establish baselines for geodesy. Potential applications include measurements of seismic and volcanic displacements and movements of tectonic plates.

Lindqwister, Ulf J.↗

Baseline estimation with semidynamic and geometric satellite methods

The potential of a semidynamic method for an estimation of satellite position was investigated in a real data environment, using observations of Lageos collected during the MERIT campaign. In this method, quasi-simultaneous laser range observations of Lageos by pairs of stations were transformed to simultaneous range differences (SRDs), in order to reduce the effects of orbital and observational residual biases. Baselines obtained via the SRD method were compared to those obtained by the geometric method. It was found that, for baselines of regional extent, the SRD method is very efficient and at least as accurate as the more complex dynamic methods.

Dedes, George C.↗

Irrigation Infrastructure and Modernization – Setting a Baseline: Estimates of Irrigation Water Conveyance Infrastructure Extents and Composition and the Potential Water, Energy, and Economic Benefits of Modernization in the Western U.S.

In the Western United States (U.S.), water delivery for irrigation is still largely managed using century-old equipment and designs. Modernization of this vital water conveyance infrastructure, such as piping of earthen canals, is known to improve water availability and water quality for farmers, while saving energy and enabling new hydropower. However, there is sparse information about the extent of irrigation water delivery infrastructure, which makes it challenging to estimate the cost of upgrades at scale and the potential benefits of accelerating modernization work. This report estimates a variety of previously unquantified data points related to irrigation water delivery infrastructure in the Western U.S. to support stakeholders interested in nationwide modernization planning. The findings should be considered approximations, useful for understanding the scale, range, or variability of these indicators. Taken together, the findings of this report illustrate some of the challenges and opportunities involved in modernizing the agricultural water delivery infrastructure in the Western U.S. Accelerating the pace of modernization could strengthen the long-term resilience of U.S. food systems while providing significant economic, energy, water, and environmental benefits.

13 HYDRO ENERGY↗

Geodesy by radio interferometry - Effects of atmospheric modeling errors on estimates of baseline length

Analysis of very long baseline interferometry data indicates that systematic errors in prior estimates of baseline length, of order 5 cm for approximately 8000-km baselines, were due primarily to mismodeling of the electrical path length of the troposphere and mesosphere ('atmospheric delay'). Here observational evidence for the existence of such errors in the previously used models for the atmospheric delay is discussed, and a new 'mapping' function for the elevation angle dependence of this delay is developed. The delay predicted by this new mapping function differs from ray trace results by less than approximately 5 mm, at all elevations down to 5 deg elevation, and introduces errors into the estimates of baseline length of less than about 1 cm, for the multistation intercontinental experiment analyzed here.

Davis, J. L.↗

The Decline of Jupiter's 13-cm Synchrotron Radio Emission During the Year Following the SL-9 Impacts

Measurements of Jupiter's microwave radio emission from 1990 through August 1995 are reported and analyzed to study the rate of decay in the synchrotron radiation following the dramatic increase observed in July 1994 during the week of impacts by fragments of Comet Shoemaker-Levy 9. The observations were made at 2295 MHz as part of the NASA-JPL Jupiter Patrol, a long-term radio astronomy monitoring program begun in 1971. Data from 34-meter and 70-meter antennas at the NASA's Deep Space Communication Complex at Goldstone, CA are used to estimate slope and curvature of plausible 'baselines' for Jupiter's non-thermal flux density over the five-year interval. These 'baseline' estimates are then used to derive decay times for the outburst emission related to the SL-9 impacts.

Jupiter SL-9↗

Myriad World Baseline: Global Geodemographic Estimates

The LandScan Myriad World Baseline (MWB) method produces global, residential (nighttime/home-location) gridded geodemographic estimates based on 5-year age/gender cohorts—at 30-arcsecond (≈1 km) resolution. MWB is designed to fill gaps where detailed, georeferenced survey data (e.g., Demographic and Health Surveys (DHS)) are missing or outdated, and to provide a baseline that can support human security analysis, including consequence assessment, “patterns of life” modeling, and scenario-based population futures. MWB’s workflow spatializes household-level age/gender characteristics from the GLOPOP-S dataset by conflating household and gridded expected relative wealth adapted from Global Gridded Relative Deprivation Index (GRDI), then adjusts them to a target year of interest. Age/gender estimates are then applied to harmonize lowest-administrative-level statistics with LandScan residential counts, yielding final geodemographic estimates. Two validation case studies are presented: Ghana (2021) and Tokyo/Kanagawa, Japan (2020), illustrating spatial variability in demographic cohorts and comparing MWB outputs to official gridded statistics. Results show close overall alignment relative to validation criteria including population pyramids and age-dependency ratios.

Tuccillo, Joe [ORNL] (ORCID:0000000259300943)↗

Contributions of Precipitation and Soil Moisture Observations to the Skill of Soil Moisture Estimates in a Land Data Assimilation System

The contributions of precipitation and soil moisture observations to the skill of soil moisture estimates from a land data assimilation system are assessed. Relative to baseline estimates from the Modern Era Retrospective-analysis for Research and Applications (MERRA), the study investigates soil moisture skill derived from (i) model forcing corrections based on large-scale, gauge- and satellite-based precipitation observations and (ii) assimilation of surface soil moisture retrievals from the Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer for the Earth Observing System (AMSR-E). Soil moisture skill is measured against in situ observations in the continental United States at 44 single-profile sites within the Soil Climate Analysis Network (SCAN) for which skillful AMSR-E retrievals are available and at four CalVal watersheds with high-quality distributed sensor networks that measure soil moisture at the scale of land model and satellite estimates. The average skill (in terms of the anomaly time series correlation coefficient R) of AMSR-E retrievals is R=0.39 versus SCAN and R=0.53 versus CalVal measurements. The skill of MERRA surface and root-zone soil moisture is R=0.42 and R=0.46, respectively, versus SCAN measurements, and MERRA surface moisture skill is R=0.56 versus CalVal measurements. Adding information from either precipitation observations or soil moisture retrievals increases surface soil moisture skill levels by IDDeltaR=0.06-0.08, and root zone soil moisture skill levels by DeltaR=0.05-0.07. Adding information from both sources increases surface soil moisture skill levels by DeltaR=0.13, and root zone soil moisture skill by DeltaR=0.11, demonstrating that precipitation corrections and assimilation of satellite soil moisture retrievals contribute similar and largely independent amounts of information.

Reichle, Rolf H.↗

Stochastic estimation of tropospheric path delays in global positioning system geodetic measurements

Water vapor radiometric and surface meteorological measurements taken during three GPS geodetic experiments are used to calculate process noise levels for random walk and first-order Gauss-Markov temporal models of tropospheric path delays. Entire wet and combined wet and dry zenith delays at each network site are estimated simultaneously with the geodetic parameters without prior calibration. The path delays and corresponding baseline estimates are compared to those obtained with calibrated data and stochastic residual delays. In this manner, the marginal utility of a priori tropospheric calibration is assessed given the ability to estimate the path delays directly using only the GPS data. Estimation of total zenith path delays with appropriate random walk or Gauss-Markov models yields baseline repeatabilities of a few parts in 100 million. Results suggest that GPS data alone have sufficient strength to resolve centimeter-level zenith path delay fluctuations over periods of a few minutes.

Tralli, David M.↗

Estimating the Benefits of Sustainable Aviation Fuel Usage at Chicago O’Hare International Airport on Ultrafine Particle Exposure and Mortalities Reductions

The expanding commercial aviation sector necessitates diverse energy sources, and sustainable aviation fuels (SAFs) have emerged as a promising option. Widespread SAF adoption can help meet transportation fuel demand and offer health benefits for people residing near airports or along airport landing and takeoff (LTO) pathways, where elevated levels of aircraft-derived air pollution often exist. Blending SAF with traditional jet fuels can reduce ultrafine particle (UFP) emissions, which may improve health of near airport population. We analyzed a population of about 8 million people in 1925 census tracts around the Chicago O’Hare International Airport (ORD). We conducted a risk assessment to estimate anticipated UFP reductions for three adoption scenarios using blends of traditional jet fuels with 5, 25, and 50% SAF across all flights landing and taking off from ORD. We calculated baseline estimates of UFP emissions using ORD flight data, a dispersion model, and a calibration function derived from mobile monitoring data. We used this baseline UFP emission profile across the study area to estimate population-weighted UFP, as well as the attributable case reductions (ACRs) and attributable mortality rate reductions (AMRRs) across the demographic distribution around the airport, based on the SAF blending scenarios. We found a positive association of SAF blending with UFP reductions, particularly near the airport and along LTO flight pathways. Our study showed that the population-weighted UFP across different demographics was similar. ACRs were largely dependent on individual demographic populations, while AMRRs for all populations were relatively similar, with an estimated 0.3 (95% range: 0.2−0.3), 1.1 (0.9−1.4), and 1.8 (1.5−2.2) fewer mortalities per 100,000 people per year expected with the adoption of 5, 25, and 50% SAF blends, respectively. This study indicates that communities near ORD, across a range of demographics, may benefit similarly from SAF adoption, thus highlighting how SAF adoption may offer an opportunity to improve health outcomes like aviation UFP-related mortalities around airports.

10 SYNTHETIC FUELS↗

First epoch geodetic measurements with the Global Positioning System across the northern Caribbean plate boundary zone

The first geodetic survey across the northern Caribbean plate boundary zone with GPS was conducted in June 1986. Baseline vectors defined by the six-station regional GPS network ranged from 170 to 1260 km in length. Repeatability of independent daily baseline estimates was better than 8 mm plus 1.3 parts in 10 to the 8th of baseline length for horizontal components. The wet tropospheric path delay during the experiment was both high, sometimes exceeding 30 cm at zenith, and variable, sometimes exceeding 5 cm variation over several hours. Successful carrier phase cycle ambiguity resolution (bias fixing) could not be achieved prior to construction of a regional troposphere model. With optimum troposphere treatment and single-day orbital arcs, most biases on baselines were resolved up to about 550 km in length. With multiday orbital arcs most biases in the network were resolved regardless of baseline length. The results suggest that constraints on plate-boundary zone deformation in the Greater Antilles, and on the North America-Caribbean relative plate motion vector, can be obtained with a series of GPS experiments spanning less than 10 and 15 years, respectively.

Dixon, T. H.↗

SERIES - Satellite Emission Range Inferred Earth Surveying

The Satellite Emission Range Inferred Earth Surveying (SERIES) concept is based on the utilization of NAVSTAR Global Positioning System (GPS) radio transmissions without any satellite modifications and in a totally passive mode. The SERIES stations are equipped with lightweight 1.5 m diameter dish antennas mounted on trailers. A series baseline measurement accuracy demonstration is considered, taking into account a 100 meter baseline estimation from approximately one hour of differential Doppler data. It is planned to conduct the next phase of experiments on a 150 m baseline. Attention is given to details regarding future baseline measurement accuracy demonstrations, aspects of ionospheric calibration in connection with subdecimeter baseline accuracy requirements of geodesy, and advantages related to the use of the differential Doppler or pseudoranging mode.

Macdoran, P. F.↗

Few millimeter precision for baselines in the California Permanent GPS Geodetic Array

Geodetic measurements with Rogue GPS receivers from sites in the California Permanent GPS geodetic Array (PGGA) have been analyzed using the GIPSY orbit-determination and baseline-estimation software. Based on an unbiased selection of 23 daily measurements spanning 8 months, the LF contributions to the long-term repeatabilities of baseline measurements are approximately 5, 3, and 8 mm for the east, north, and vertical components. Short-term contributions to the long-term repeatabilities were evaluated by examining data from the week of October 21, 1990, which showed the lowest short-term scatter. For this week, daily repeatabilities of 2-3 mm in the horizontal and 4 mm in the vertical have been achieved for the 172-km JPL-Pinyon baseline, consistent with carrier phase date noise of about 6 mm. High quality (less than about 5 mm) repeatabilities have been achieved for all components of the other baselines as well.

Lindqwister, Ulf J.↗