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At least 19 records

Basin & Range Investigation for Developing Geothermal Energy

Hidden geothermal systems represent a potentially prolific energy resource that could support critical U.S. public and government energy priorities. Basin and Range Investigations for Developing Geothermal Energy (BRIDGE) addressed some the challenges associated with hidden system exploration by prioritizing cost-effective exploration early on through strategic workflow and informed decision-making that mitigates early risk and shifts resources to later exploration stages (e.g., drilling). Sandia National Laboratories partnered with U.S. Navy Geothermal Office, Geologic Geothermal Group, and independent consultants, with additional collaboration with U.S. Geological Survey and private industry. The primary tool of the BRIDGE project was to deploy a regional-scale airborne electromagnetic method to investigate the shallow resistivity structure in areas with high prospectivity. This was followed up at several prospects by a multidisciplinary exploration approach, including additional geologic, geophysical and geochemical studies. A central tenet to the BRIDGE methodology is that zones of low resistivity frequently occur over geothermal systems in the Basin and Range, and when paired with other data constraints, imaging these zones can enable discovery of these systems. In addition to exploring greenfield areas (i.e., Grover Point), the BRIDGE project also flew HTEM resistivity surveys over known geothermal systems including those with established power plants (Don A. Campbell and Salt Wells) and prospects that are known to the literature but remain undeveloped, at least in part, due to a lack of understanding on the location of their producible reservoirs. BRIDGE produced a comprehensive set of data from prospects identified in the Nevada Play Fairway Analysis along with conceptual models for top ranking prospects, wherein all of the observations are used to inform an interpreted model of the system. These models present a range of possible system parameters such as temperature and size, and they are further informed by system analogues in the Basin and Range province and elsewhere. The results of this work leave space for further exploration that may now occur at prospects ‘down the list’ rather than distribution exploration resources evenly across all prospects.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗

Basin and Range Investigation for Developing Geothermal Energy: Exploration Data

This data package includes exploration material from the Basin & Range Investigation for Developing Geothermal Energy [in Hidden Systems] project (BRIDGE), which is part of a broader initiative to advance the exploration of hidden geothermal resources in the Basin & Range Province of the western U.S. Data modalities include a helicopter-borne time-domain electromagnetic survey, magnetotellurics, 2-meter temperature measurements, ground-based gravity and legacy aeromagnetic surveys, geochemistry, geologic mapping, LiDAR analysis, 3D models, associated geospatial data, and a bibliography of existing data and references utilized in prospect characterization and conceptual modeling. Key files are in CSV, Geosoft, and Geotools formats. Please refer to READMEs for dataset-specific information. Where applicable, acquisition data and inversion models for a particular prospect or area of interest are organized separately. This BRIDGE data package is the product of a collaboration led by Sandia National Laboratories with partners from Geologica Geothermal Group, Inc., the U.S. Navy Geothermal Program Office, and consultants Steven Sewell (Australis Geoscience Ltd) and William Cumming (Cumming Geoscience). The project's areas of interest (AOIs) are based off priority areas of interest in the southwestern portion of the Nevada Play Fairway map, distribution across tectonic provinces, accessibility, and the project team's extensive experience in the region. AOIs cover about a dozen basins that include unexplored prospects, partially explored prospects, and some developed analogue resources that provide validation cases. Many unexplored and partially explored prospects are on U.S. Department of Defense (DoD) land, though adjacent lands are included as well.

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Assessing Seismic Risk for CO2 Geologic Storage: Comparative Analysis of the Delaware Basin and Basin and Range Province Projects

ABSTRACT: Effective management of induced seismicity is critical for safe and sustainable CO2 storage. This study evaluates fault slippage risks in the Delaware Basin (Texas) and Basin and Range Province (Utah), integrating geological, operational, and geomechanical parameters to assess fault stability and seismic hazard mitigation. In the Delaware Basin, two sites were analyzed under an injection rate of 20,000 bbl/day over 25 years. One site showed low fault slip risk, while the other exhibited higher reactivation potential due to proximity to critically stressed faults. Sensitivity analysis revealed that increased pore pressure significantly heightened slip potential, highlighting the necessity of precise pressure control and real-time monitoring. In the Basin and Range Province, fault stability was evaluated at Neck of the Desert, Escalante Desert, Parowan, and Beaver sites under injection rates of 8,750 bbl/day per site over 30 years. Minimal fault slip risk was observed at Neck of the Desert and Escalante Desert sites, whereas Parowan and Beaver sites exhibited elevated slip potential due to semi-critically stressed faults sensitive to modest pore pressure increases. The findings demonstrate that fault slippage analysis, combined with sensitivity analysis of pore pressure and friction coefficients, is essential for understanding seismic risks. Continuous monitoring, adaptive injection management, and rigorous geomechanical analysis are key strategies for minimizing induced seismicity in CO2 sequestration projects.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Regional Geologic Evaluations for Disposal of HLW and SNF: Alluvial Basins of the Basin and Range Province

The DOE Spent Fuel and Waste Technology (SFWT) R&D Campaign supports research on crystalline rock, shale (argillite) and salt as potential host rocks for disposal of HLW and SNF in a mined geologic repository. Modeling involving these host rocks for the generic GDSA reference cases has assumed saturated conditions at repository depths. In order to test two-phase flow capabilities of the GDSA flow and transport models, the SFWT Campaign is developing an unsaturated zone reference case. Alluvial basin-fill deposits within the Basin and Range province have unsaturated zones that can be as thick as 600 meters, although the thickness is typically much less. Basin-fill alluvium has been considered as a potential medium for HLW disposal in the US since the 1950s (NAS,1957; Smyth et al., 1979; Winograd, 1981). Attributes considered favorable for HLW disposal in alluvium in the Basin and Range province include an arid environment, low water flux , high sorption capacity (from clay s and zeolites), and ease of construction and stability of repository openings (Hardin et al., 2012). Hardin et al. (2012) also address the thermal issues inherent in the design of a HLW repository in alluvium with low thermal conductivity, which are not discussed in this report.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

High-Resolution 2D Lg and Pg Attenuation Models in the Basin and Range Region with Implications for Frequency-Dependent Q

Here, we develop high–resolution, laterally varying attenuation models for the regional crustal phases of Pg and Lg in the area surrounding the Basin and Range Province in the western United States. The models are part of the characterization effort for the Source Physics Experiment (SPE), a series of chemical explosions at the Nevada National Security Site designed to improve our understanding of explosion source phenomenology. To aid in SPE modeling efforts, we focus on improving our ability to accurately predict amplitudes in a set of narrow frequency bands ranging from 0.5 to 16.0 Hz. To explore constraints at higher frequencies where data become more sparse, we test the robustness of the empirically observed power–law relationship between quality factor Q and frequency (Q=Q 0 f γ ). Our methodology uses a staged approach to consider attenuation, physics–based source terms, site terms, and geometrical spreading contributions to amplitude measurements. Tomographic inversion results indicate that the frequency dependence is a reasonable assumption as attenuation varies laterally for this region through all frequency bands considered. Our 2D Pg and Lg attenuation models correlate with underlying physiographic provinces, with the highest Q located in the Sierra Nevada Mountains and the Colorado plateau. Compared to a best–fitting 1D model for the region, the 2D model provides an 81% variance reduction overall for Lg residuals and a 75% reduction for Pg . These detailed attenuation maps at high frequencies will facilitate further study of local and regional distance P/S amplitude discriminants that are typically used to distinguish between earthquakes and underground explosions.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Unprecedented Shifts in Hydrology Are Emerging Across California's Critical Basins: An Evaluation From 0.5 to 3.5°C

With advances in climate models and downscaling techniques, stakeholders anticipate high-resolution analysis to inform regional to local changes in water management. Here, we produce hydrologic projections from an ensemble of Earth System Models (ESMs) that were selected and downscaled to support California's 5th Climate Assessment. An ensemble of 19 ESMs was downscaled to a 3-km resolution across California using a statistical-dynamical downscaling approach and subsequently run through two calibrated hydrology models. Although California has been extensively studied in the context of climate change, we provide the first evaluation of the warming thresholds at which hydroclimate metrics demonstrate statistically significant shifts. We show that present-day to near-term warming levels in Klamath and Northern Sierra Nevada basins, which serve as a critical source of water for California, show statistically significant decreases in snowfall and peak snowpack and associated decreases in summer snowmelt and runoff. More generally, shifts in these hydroclimate metrics occur for intermediate elevation basins ranging from 1,315 to 1,455 m (4,314.3–4,773.6 ft), while the warming level of emergence is delayed for lower and higher elevation basins. We also find that several basins already demonstrate significant increases in 5- to 100-year runoff intensities, primarily due to the increasing influence of precipitation falling as rain. Hydroclimate metrics with trends that demonstrate near-term warming levels of emergence are reflected in reanalysis-based observations, suggesting California is entering a fundamentally different hydroclimate regime. While this will likely stress California's water management, the research provided can support when to implement adaptation efforts.

Bass, B. [Univ. of California, Los Angeles, CA (Un↗

Error Characteristics and Scale Dependence of Current Satellite Precipitation Estimates Products in Hydrological Modeling

Satellite precipitation estimates (SPEs) are promising alternatives to gauge observations for hydrological applications (e.g., streamflow simulation), especially in remote areas with sparse observation networks. However, the existing SPEs products are still biased due to imperfections in retrieval algorithms, data sources and post-processing, which makes the effective use of SPEs a challenge, especially at different spatial and temporal scales. In this study, we used a distributed hydrological model to evaluate the simulated discharge from eight quasi-global SPEs at different spatial scales and explored their potential scale effects of SPEs on a cascade of basins ranging from approximately 100 to 130,000 km 2 . The results indicate that, regardless of the difference in the accuracy of various SPEs, there is indeed a scale effect in their application in discharge simulation. Specifically, when the catchment area is larger than 20,000 km2, the overall performance of discharge simulation emerges an ascending trend with the increase of catchment area due to the river routing and spatial averaging. Whereas below 20,000 km 2 , the discharge simulation capability of the SPEs is more randomized and relies heavily on local precipitation accuracy. Our study also highlights the need to evaluate SPEs or other precipitation products (e.g., merge product or reanalysis data) not only at the limited station scale, but also at a finer scale depending on the practical application requirements. Here we have verified that the existing SPEs are scale-dependent in hydrological simulation, and they are not enough to be directly used in very fine scale distributed hydrological simulations (e.g., flash flood). More advanced retrieval algorithms, data sources and bias correction methods are needed to further improve the overall quality of SPEs.

DTVGM↗

Distribution and migration mechanism of fluoride in groundwater in the Manas River Basin, Northwest China

Elevated fluoride (F) concentration in groundwater is posing a public health risk in the Manas River Basin (MRB), Northwest China. Based on the characterization of regional groundwater flow, 90 groundwater samples from aquifers were analyzed, along with top-soil leachate and pore-water samples from aquitards. Stable oxygen (δ{sup 18}O) and hydrogen isotopes, radiocarbon and hydrochemical analyses of the groundwater and pore-water samples were conducted to trace groundwater hydrological and hydrochemical processes and thereby understand the distribution and migration mechanism of F. The groundwater is recharged by meteoric precipitation through vapor condensation processes in the Tianshan Mountains. The F concentration in groundwater samples from this basin ranged from 0.11 to 48.15 mg/L (mean 2.56 mg/L). In 37 of the 90 groundwater samples, the F concentrations were above the safe level for drinking water. The F concentrations progressively increased with the residence time and well depths in the northwest of the alluvial-fluvial plain, where groundwater is overexploited for agricultural and domestic use. Positive correlations between F and sodium (Na)/calcium (Ca) indicate that the enrichment and migration of F are influenced by cation exchange processes under high-Na and alkaline pH conditions. The relationships between δ{sup 18}O and F and chloride (Cl) concentrations were nonlinear due to leaching and mixing processes. This shows that vertical leaching by irrigation return flow and mixing with pore water are the dominant processes driving the migration of F in the groundwater flow system of MRB, in addition to geochemical processes.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Causes of Missing Snowmelt Following Drought

Abstract Water management in snowy mountainous regions hinges on forecasting snowmelt runoff. However, droughts are altering snowpack‐runoff relationships with ongoing debate about the driving mechanisms. For example, in 2021 in California, less than half of predicted streamflow arrived. Mechanisms proposed for this “missing” streamflow included changes in evapotranspiration ( ET ), rainfall, and subsurface moisture conditions. Here, we demonstrate that ET in drought years generates dry subsurface conditions that reduce runoff in subsequent years. A model including this legacy of depleted moisture storage reduced median error in 2021 forecasts from 60% to 20% at 15 minimally disturbed basins and from 18% to 2% at 6 water supply basins in the Sierra Nevada (basins range in area from 5 to 23,051 km 2 and mean annual precipitation from 814 to 1,549 mm). Our findings indicate that the relationship between snowpack and runoff will evolve as plant ecosystems respond to climate change and alter subsurface water storage dynamics.

Lapides, Dana A.↗

Assessing Suitable Geologic Carbon Storage Sites Across Utah

Utah has a wealth of potential geological reservoirs for carbon dioxide storage (CS) and a long history of geologic research resulting in an abundance of available subsurface data to evaluate CS potential. Reservoirs may include sandstone, carbonate, and basalt; these rock types are plentiful in Utah’s subsurface and the complex Phanerozoic history throughout the state requires evaluating each geologic region individually for promising reservoir-seal pairs for CO2 storage. Classifying Utah by geologic provinces (or “geo-regions”) allows for customized thinking about suitable CS reservoir and seal distribution, CO2 point sources, land use, and existing infrastructure. Preliminary results from this study highlight the geologic CS potential across 15 geo-regions. Four regions stand out as having high CS potential: the Uinta Basin, San Rafael Swell, Paradox Basin, and the southern Basin and Range Province. The Uinta Basin and San Rafael Swell geo-regions are well suited for CS and have several projects ongoing to evaluate Cretaceous Frontier and Naturita Formations, Jurassic Navajo Sandstone and Entrada Sandstone, and Permian Weber Sandstone reservoir units that lie beneath robust sealing units like the ~5000-ft-thick Mancos Shale and Carmel Formation. Reservoirs such as the Navajo and Weber Sandstones have been demonstrated to be suitable reservoirs through a long history of oil and gas exploration in Utah. New areas of interest include the southern Basin and Range in southwest Utah, where the Jurassic Navajo Sandstone is overlain by the sealing Carmel Formation at suitable depths (>3000 ft), and has good porosities based on outcrop analogue data. Just to the north (e.g., central Basin and Range), legacy wells and 2D seismic data show possible salt and subsurface basalt flows that may provide additional possible CS reservoirs and seals. This geo-region also has the advantage of being coupled with geothermal energy resources that may be used to power burgeoning direct air capture technologies. In the Paradox Basin of southeastern Utah, the Leadville Limestone is a potential storage reservoir beneath the thick (4000–5000 ft), salt-bearing Pennsylvanian Paradox Formation. Although the northern and western parts of Utah offer CS potential, these areas typically contain less infrastructure and subsurface penetrations, creating geologic uncertainty associated with subsurface seals and reservoirs due to a lack of data. Overall, this statewide assessment and ranking is the first step to aid in evaluating CS potential across Utah and provides a foundation for future research in the most favorable locations.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Analysis of the 2021 Milford, Utah earthquake swarm: Enhanced earthquake catalog and migration patterns

An earthquake swarm occurred in Spring 2021 in south-central Utah near the town of Milford. The University of Utah Seismograph Stations located 125 earthquakes between March 19 and May 10 with magnitudes ranging from 0.5 to 3.2. We implement a matched-filter technique in order to identify additional earthquakes that went undetected during the routine network location. The 125 network-located earthquakes are used as templates and are cross-correlated with continuous data for the dates Feb 17—June 10. This time period corresponds to approximately 1 month before the earthquake swarm began through 1 month after it ended. For the matched-filter analysis, we rely heavily on station FOR1, which is located within 5 km of most template events. Four other stations within 20–30 km of most template events provide a supplement to the closest station. The matched-filter implementation results in the detection of over 600 earthquakes in addition to the original 125 catalog events. This is one of the largest swarms ever recorded in Utah, and no previous large swarms have been recorded in this location. We use HypoDD to obtain relative double-difference locations of the catalog events. Both routine locations and HypoDD relocations of the catalog events suggest a fault dipping west beneath the mountain range, opposite of typical Basin and Range normal faults that dip beneath alluvial valleys. Moment tensors for the largest five events show normal faulting consistent with the west-dipping fault seen in the seismicity. Hydrothermal features in the area, including a geothermal power plant, suggest that fluids may be a contributing factor to the earthquake swarm triggering. We examine the role of fluids by exploring bounds on diffusion parameters and investigating spatial migration characteristics of the swarm seismicity. We conclude that this swarm is the result of heterogenous stress conditions in a prefractured region.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Play-fairway analysis for geothermal resources and exploration risk in the Modoc Plateau region

The region surrounding the Modoc Plateau, encompassing parts of northeastern California, southern Oregon, and northwestern Nevada, lies at an intersection between two tectonic provinces; the Basin and Range province and the Cascade volcanic arc. Both of these provinces have substantial geothermal resource base and resource potential. Geothermal systems with evidence of magmatic heat, associated with Cascade arc magmatism, typify the western side of the region. Systems on the eastern side of the region appear to be fault controlled with heat derived from high crustal heat flow, both of which are typical of the Basin and Range. As it has the potential to host Cascade arc-type geothermal resources, Basin and Range-type geothermal resources, and/or resources with characteristics of both provinces, and because there is relatively little current development, the Modoc Plateau region represents an intriguing potential for undiscovered geothermal resources. It remains unclear however, what specific set(s) of characteristics are diagnostic of Modoc-type geothermal systems and how or if those characteristics are distinct from Basin and Range-type or Cascade arc-type geothermal systems. In order to evaluate the potential for undiscovered geothermal resources in the Modoc area, we integrate a wide variety of existing data in order to evaluate geothermal resource potential and exploration risk utilizing ‘play-fairway’ analysis. Here, we consider that the requisite parameters for hydrothermal circulation are: 1) heat that is sufficient to drive circulation, and 2) permeability that is sufficient to allow for fluid circulation in the subsurface. We synthesize data that indicate the extent and distribution of these parameters throughout the Modoc region. ‘Fuzzy logic’ is used to incorporate expert opinion into the utility of each dataset as an indicator of either heat or permeability, and thus geothermal favorability. The results identify several geothermal prospects, areas that are highly favorable for the occurrence of both heat and permeability. These are also areas where there is sufficient data coverage, quality, and consistency that the exploration risk is relatively low. These unknown, undeveloped, and under-developed prospects are well-suited for continued exploration efforts. The results also indicate to what degree the two ‘play-types,’ i.e. Cascade arc-type or Basin and Range-type, apply to each of the geothermal prospects, a useful guide in exploration efforts.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗

Geology and in situ stress of the MH-2 borehole, Idaho, USA: Insights into western Snake River Plain structure from geothermal exploration drilling

Project HOTSPOT, the Snake River Scientific Drilling Project (International Continental Scientific Drilling Program), tested for deep geothermal resources and examined the petrology of volcanic rocks with three drillholes in the central and western Snake River Plain (western USA). The MH-2 drillhole targeted fractured crystalline and hydrothermally altered basalt in the area of the Mountain Home Air Force Base (Idaho) to a total depth of 1821 m. At 1745 m depth the drillhole encountered flowing artesian hydrothermal fluids of at least 150 °C. We integrate geological analyses of core, image log, and borehole geophysical data, and in situ stress analyses to describe the structural environment that produces permeability for artesian flow. The rocks in the lower 540 m of the drillhole consist of basalt flows as much as 30 m thick, altered basalt, and thin sedimentary horizons. The mechanical stratigraphy is defined by nine mechanical horizons that are in three ranges of rock strength on the basis of experimentally determined strength data, core logging, and geophysical log signatures. Hydrothermal alteration products and mineralization in the core are associated with three highly faulted sections; the lowermost section is associated with the zone of flowing thermal water. Shear slip indicators on faults observed in core indicate slip ranging from pure strike slip to normal failure mechanisms in the stronger horizons. The borehole breakouts indicate that the maximum horizontal stress, SH, is oriented 047° ± 7°, and drilling-induced tensile fractures indicate that SH is oriented at 67° ± 21°. The in situ stress orientations exhibit little variation over the depth of the measured interval, but the SH magnitude varies with depth, and is best explained by an oblique normal fault stress regime. The geomechanical model indicates that if pore pressures at depth are elevated above the normal hydrostatic gradient, as observed here, the system has the potential to deform by mixed normal and strike-slip failure. Our observations and interpretations suggest that the MH-2 borehole was drilled into oblique normal faults that intersect a buried 300°-trending fault block masked by the basaltic volcanic complex. These data indicate that the transition from the central to western Snake River Plain is characterized by complex structures developed in response to a transitional stress state related to Snake River Plain and western Basin and Range stress regimes. Furthermore, the western Basin and Range stress and tectonic regime may extend from northern Nevada into western Idaho and may enhance the potential for geothermal resources by creating interconnected fracture and fault-related permeability at depth.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗