Search NASA⌕ Search

SEARCH · Search NASA

Results for “Bayes”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 19 records
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2024

Monsoonal MCS Initiation, Rainfall, and Diurnal Gravity Waves over the Bay of Bengal: Observation and a Linear Model

Abstract Previous observational studies have indicated that mesoscale convective systems (MCSs) contribute the majority of precipitation over the Bay of Bengal (BoB) during the summer monsoon season, yet their initiation and propagation remain incompletely understood. To fill this knowledge gap, we conducted a comprehensive study using a combination of 20-yr satellite observations, MCS tracking, reanalysis data, and a theoretical linear model. Satellite observations reveal clear diurnal propagation signals of MCS initiation frequency and rainfall from the west coast of the BoB toward the central BoB, with the MCS rainfall propagating slightly slower than the MCS initiation frequency. Global reanalysis data indicate a strong association between the offshore-propagating MCS initiation frequency/rainfall and diurnal low-level wind perturbations, implying the potential role of gravity waves. To verify the hypothesis, we developed a 2D linear model that can be driven by realistic meteorological fields from reanalysis. The linear model realistically reproduces the characteristics of offshore-propagating diurnal wind perturbations. The wind perturbations, as well as the offshore propagation signals of MCS initiation frequency and rainfall, are associated with diurnal gravity waves emitted from the coastal regions, which in turn are caused by the diurnal land–sea thermal contrast. The ambient wind speed and vertical wind shear play crucial roles in modulating the timing, propagation, and amplitude of diurnal gravity waves. Using the linear model and satellite observations, we further show that the stronger monsoonal flows lead to faster offshore propagation of diurnal gravity waves, which subsequently control the offshore propagation signals of MCS initiation and rainfall. Significance Statement Rainfall over the Bay of Bengal (BoB) is primarily contributed by large and organized rainfall systems in the summer monsoon season. During this season, these systems are commonly observed over the east coast of India around midnight, the western BoB in the morning, and the central BoB in the afternoon. This eastward rainfall propagation is confirmed by observations, reanalysis data, and a theoretical model to have a strong association with atmospheric diurnal gravity waves. These waves are caused by land–sea thermal contrast and can trigger rainfall systems over the offshore regions. We also found that the diurnal gravity waves, as well as their triggered rainfall systems, can be greatly modulated by the large-scale monsoonal flows. All the above findings improve our understanding of diurnal rainfall cycle over the BoB and may contribute to the future improvement of rainfall forecast over the region.

Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences↗
DOE OSTI2024

Clear Sky Tampa Bay: Tampa Bay Regional Policy Landscape Analysis (Florida Energy Resilience Policy Landscape) [Slides]

This deck focuses on policies and programs that may enable, constrain, or inform the deployment of solar and storage for resilience in the Tampa Bay Region. This deck also reviews planning approaches within the Tampa Bay Region to ensure that resources developed under the Clear Sky Tampa Bay project are consistent with established practice and relevant to regional practitioners.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2025

A Closed Bay-Breeze Circulation and Its Lifecycle From TRACER With a New Orienteering Tape Recorder Diagram

A closed bay-breeze circulation (BBC) followed by a gulf-breeze front (GBF) was observed on 10 September 2022 during the Department of Energy's (DOE) Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) TRACER campaign. Using high-resolution X-band Scanning Cloud Radar (XSACR) and a newly developed orienteering tape recorder diagram, the study analyzed radar reflectivity and Doppler velocity to identify anomalies and track the evolution of these circulations. The BBC, a mesoscale system approximately 30-km long, 30-km wide, and 2-km deep, formed from enhanced horizontal convective rolls along the Galveston Bay coast, progressing northwestward under a 6 m s−1 onshore flow anomaly and reaching 1.5 km depth with return flow aloft. The inland penetration speed was 2 m s−1, driven by an observed 6-9 K land-water temperature contrast. The GBF, coupled to the BBC, intensified with additional southerly flow, penetrating further inland after the BBC collapsed. Passing over the TRACER field site, both fronts significantly impacted boundary layer thermodynamics, dynamics, and aerosol concentration. The BBC event exhibited four lifecycle stages-formation, development, maturation, and dissipation-driven by solar heating, wind field rotation, and interactions with convective eddies and the GBF. This study provides insights into the inland evolution of coastal breeze circulations and their interactions with environmental processes.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Bay capping via acetylene addition to polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons: Mechanism and kinetics

The bay-capping mechanism on PAH armchair edges and the kinetics of acetylene addition to 6–6–5 and 5–6–5 bays have been explored by ab initio/RRKM-ME calculations. The bays on the edges were modeled by C 21 H 11 and C 20 H 9 radicals produced by H abstractions from 7H-benzo[c]cyclopenta[e]pyrene and dicyclopenta[cf]pyrene. The C 20 H 9 + C 2 H 2 reaction is shown to have a low entrance barrier and to rapidly form the capped product, indaceno[2,1,8,7-cdefg]pyrene, along with ethynyl substituted dicyclopenta[cf]pyrene at temperatures above 1400 K. The reactivity of C 21 H 11 is shown to be governed by the location of the unpaired electron; the π radical R1 formed by H abstraction from the CH 2 group in 7H-benzo[c]cyclopenta[e]pyrene reacts with C 2 H 2 very slowly owing to a high entrance barrier, with the bay-capping rate constant approaching 10 -16 cm 3 molecule -1 s -1 only at temperatures above 2000K. Further, this result reaffirms that the growth of π aryl radicals via acetylene addition is inefficient and reflects the generally low reactivity of such radicals where the spin density is highly delocalized over the entire polyaromatic system. Alternatively, the σ C 21 H 11 radical R2 produced by H abstraction from the five-membered ring at the bay rapidly reacts with C 2 H 2 forming the bay-capped product, with the rate constant on the order of 10 -12 cm 3 molecule -1 s -1 at T≥1500K. Rate constants for the capping reactions at the 6–6–5 and 5–6–5 bays are compared with those at the 6–0–6, 6–6–6, and 6–5–6 bays. The site-specific bay-capping rate constants have been utilized in kMC simulations of the PAH growth and the results showed measurable differences when the 6–6–5 and 5–6–5 bay-capping reactions are taken into account, including an increase of the growth rate and the formation of closed-shell PAH and a rise of the number of embedded five-membered rings accompanied with a slight decrease of their overall amount.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2023

Geogenic, Anthropogenic, and Authigenic Minerals Hosting Arsenic and Antimony in Yellowknife Bay Sediments

Abstract Yellowknife Bay (Great Slave Lake, Northwest Territories, Canada) is a water body valued by surrounding communities for its subsistence, recreational, and cultural use. Located directly downstream of the former Giant Mine and Con Mine, Yellowknife Bay has received inputs from mine waste streams enriched in arsenic (As), antimony (Sb), and metals since the late 1930s. Lake sediments in Yellowknife Bay provide a record of metal(loid) contamination from aerially deposited roaster stack emissions, mine effluent, and Giant Mine tailings. A sediment sampling program was conducted in Yellowknife Bay to characterize As and Sb mineralogy using scanning electron microscopy-mineral liberation analysis. Mineralogical analysis of As- and Sb-hosted minerals in nine sediment cores suggests that arsenic trioxide (As2O3), originally deposited during the period of peak-mining emissions, has since been transformed into authigenic sulfides (interpreted to be realgar) down core from peak-mining emissions. Arsenic has also been attenuated by iron (Fe)-oxyhydroxides and roaster-generated iron oxides up-core from peak-mining emissions, near the sediment–water interface. The Sb-bearing minerals appear to be stable in Yellowknife Bay sediments, with no conclusive evidence of post-depositional mobility having been identified. The observed prevalence of arsenic trioxide in surface sediments proximal to Giant Mine suggests that As and Sb contamination is ongoing, likely from terrestrial weathering of contaminated soils and shoreline outcrops. Arsenic-bearing oxide minerals prevalent in surface sediments may become unstable should redox conditions in the hypolimnion change; prolonged anoxia could destabilize the As hosting minerals and release As to bottom waters. Therefore, long-term monitoring of the water column, including hypolimnion conditions, in Yellowknife Bay is recommended.

Mineralogy↗
DOE OSTI2024

Observed Variability in Convective Cell Characteristics and Near-Storm Environments across the Sea- and Bay-Breeze Fronts in Southeast Texas

Abstract During the DOE Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) Tracking Aerosol Convection Interactions Experiment (TRACER) IOP spanning June–September 2022, two fixed ARM sites and a mobile team concurrently sampled the airmass heterogeneity across sea- and bay-breeze fronts around the greater Houston metropolitan region. Here, we quantify the spatiotemporal variability between maritime (coastal/bay side of breeze fronts) and continental (inland side of breeze fronts) air masses over 15 IOP days characterized by strong sea-breeze forcing. We analyze environmental profile data from 177 radiosondes and use S- and C-band radar data to track and quantify the variability in attributes of more than 2300 shallow and transitioning cells across different air masses. The composite analysis of environmental profiles indicates that during the early afternoon, the sea-breeze maritime air mass exhibits lower convective available potential energy (CAPE) than the bay-breeze maritime air mass. As the sea breeze advances inland with time, CAPE within the maritime air mass exceeds that of the continental air mass to the north of the breeze fronts. In general, maritime cells have a larger mean composite reflectivity and cell widths than continental cells; however, the response varies between shallow and transitioning cells. Mean composite 20-dB Z echo-top heights, however, are similar across air masses for both shallow and transitioning cells. The continental and maritime inflow air mass for transitioning cells has significantly different mean values for mixed-layer entrainment CAPE, lifted condensation level, level of free condensation, boundary layer depth, and diluted equilibrium level. For shallow cells, only total precipitable water shows a significant difference. Significance Statement The greater Houston metropolitan area is a natural laboratory for understanding the individual impacts of background meteorology and aerosols on convective clouds. Due to its proximity to the Gulf Coast and Galveston Bay, the Houston region experiences a diurnal precipitation cycle in the summer, driven by convection triggered from sea- and bay-breeze fronts. These fronts act as a boundary between air masses with distinct thermodynamic and environmental characteristics. Convergence along these fronts and interactions between storm outflow and the fronts facilitate convection initiation in different mesoscale air masses. This study quantifies the heterogeneity among these air masses while investigating their influence on cloud microphysics. We find that the effect of airmass heterogeneity is more pronounced for the bulk microphysical properties in shallow clouds.

Sharma, Milind↗
DOE OSTI2021

Transportation Fuel Resiliency: Case Study of Tampa Bay

Here, this case study presents findings from an analysis of the emergency preparation and response for Hurricane Irma, the most recent hurricane impacting the Tampa Bay region. The Tampa Bay region, in particular, is considered one of the most vulnerable areas in the United States to hurricanes and severe tropical weather. A particular vulnerability stems from how all petroleum fuel comes to the area by marine transport through Port Tampa Bay, which can be (and has been in the past) impacted by hurricanes and tropical storms. The case study discussed in this paper covers previous fuel challenges, vulnerabilities, and lessons learned by key Tampa Bay public agency fleets during the past 10 years (mainly as a result of the most recent 2017 Hurricane Irma) to explore ways to improve the area’s resilience to natural disasters. Some of the strategies for fuel-supply resiliency include maintaining emergency fuel supply, prioritizing fuel use, strategically placing the assets around the region to help with recovery, investing in backup generators (including generators powered by alternative fuels), planning for redundancies in fuel supply networks, developing more efficient communication procedures between public fleets, hurricane preparedness-planning, and upgrading street drainage systems to reduce the threat of local flooding.

33 ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗
DOE OSTI2026

The 1990 San Francisco Bay Area Metropolitan Transportation Commission Household Survey

The San Francisco Bay Area's Metropolitan Transportation Commission (MTC) and the regional transportation planning agency for the nine-county Bay Area conducted the survey. The basic purpose for the survey was for the development of travel demand models to simulate the various components of travel behavior: auto ownership, trip frequency (trip generation), and the distribution of trips between origins and destinations by travel mode. Planners at MTC envisioned the 1990 survey as the first wave of a multi-wave household panel survey designed to capture both short- and long-term changes in regional travel behavior. The 1990 survey collected single-weekday travel data from nearly 9,900 Bay Area households and multiple-weekday travel data from nearly 1,500 households. The 1990 survey effort also included a separate sub-project, funded by the Bay Area Rapid Transit (BART) District, to collect multiple-weekday travel data from 1,000 BART-using households. The BART survey and the MTC multiple-weekday survey were completed in the spring of 1990; the MTC single-weekday survey was continued and completed during the autumn of 1990.

1Hz data↗
DOE OSTI2026

1996 Bay Area Travel Study Wave 2

The 1996 Bay Area Travel Study, conducted by the Metropolitan Transportation Commssion, collected demographic, socioeconomic, and travel data for 3,618 households in California's nine-county Bay Area: Alameda, Contra Costa, Marin, Napa, San Francisco, San Mateo, Santa Clara, Solano, and Sonoma counties. The goal of the study was to collect information on activities for all people in each household, regardless of age or relationship. Respondents were asked to record all activities, including trips, over a two-day period. The data gathered during the survey will be used for the area's long-term transportation and air quality planning needs. The survey collected both weekday and weekend multi-day data and was the first activity-based survey conducted in the Bay Area. It also included separate sub-projects. A stated preference congestion pricing survey was administered to 150 of the respondents with a follow-up survey conducted with 110 participants. A follow-up survey was also completed by over half of the 3,618 respondent households to update contact and demographic information. These participants were then used as a panel sample for the 2000 Bay Area Travel Survey (NuStats Research and Consulting 1999).

1Hz data↗
DOE OSTI2026

2000 Bay Area Travel Survey

In 2000, the San Fransisco Bay Area Metropolitan Transportation Commission launched its fifth travel survey effort in the nine-county Bay Area. More than 15,000 households participated. The survey was an activity-based travel survey that collected information on all in-home and out-of-home activities over a two-day period, including weekday and weekend pursuits. Like the 1990 survey, the 2000 Bay Area Travel Survey also included an additional sample of 3,000 households using Bay Area Rapid Transit. Respondents were asked to report detailed information regarding their travel, including trip locations, mode of transportation, trip start and end times, trip purpose, and trip activities. Demographic variables include gender, age, employment status, occupation, income, education level, ethnicity, as well as whether a respondent held a valid driver's license, was a student, and had a disability.

1Hz data↗
DOE OSTI2021

REopt ® Lite Overview - Resilience Analysis: Clear Sky Tampa Bay [Slides]

Through the Solar Energy Innovation Network (SEIN), the Clear Sky Tampa Bay team, led by the Tampa Bay Regional Planning Council (TBRPC), developed a toolkit to help local governments prioritize sites for solar photovoltaics (PV) and battery energy storage in the context of resilience and emergency management. At a high level, the Clear Sky Tampa Bay process involves: (1) Identifying sites based on community resilience needs and priorities ("Where do we need a resilient energy solution?"); (2) Screening and prioritizing sites for solar PV and storage suitability based on site conditions and other factors; and (3) Using REopt Lite to screen down-selected facilities to prioritize sites based on resilience project economics. This slide deck focuses on Step 3 above, and provides a general overview of REopt Lite and suggestions and examples tailored to the Clear Sky Tampa Bay team about how to use REopt Lite for additional analysis.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2024

Cosmogenic surface exposure ( 10 Be) dating of raised beaches in Marguerite bay, Antarctic Peninsula: Implications for relative sea-level history

Understanding the dynamics of ice mass loss in polar regions is crucial for deciphering climate change and Glacio Isostatic Adjustment patterns. This study focuses on Marguerite Bay, located in the south-central Antarctic Peninsula. We dated raised beaches to investigate relative sea-level changes using the cosmogenic surface exposure ( 10 Be) method. Previous studies have provided valuable insights into the region's glacial history, but limitations in dating techniques and age estimates necessitate further investigation. By analysing raised shingle beaches in Gaul Cove of Horseshoe Island and the southern coast of Calmette Bay, this research aims to contribute relative sea-level change history for these areas. In Horseshoe Island's Gaul Cove, raised beaches clustered on prominent steps reveal a 15 m relative sea-level change over the last 3.31 ka. Differently, Calmette Bay exhibits a 36 m relative sea-level fall over the last 7.29 ka. Finally, these findings indicate significant and differential glacial-isostatic adjustments in both regions during the middle and late Holocene. Additionally, our data reveal accelerated sea-level fall periods corresponding to Holocene deglaciation and glacial advance events, indicating the shorelines' relative sea-level change sensitivity to climate change.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Impacts of Sea‐Level Rise on Hypoxia and Phytoplankton Production in Chesapeake Bay: Model Prediction and Assessment

In this study, the influence of sea-level rise (SLR) on seasonal hypoxia and phytoplankton production in Chesapeake Bay is investigated using a 3D unstructured grid model. Three SLR scenarios (0.17, 0.5, and 1.0 m) were conducted from 1991 to 1995. Results show that the summer hypoxic volume (HV) increases about 2%, 8%, and 16%, respectively, for these three scenarios, compared with Base Scenario. The contributions of physical and biological processes on the increase in the HV were analyzed. With the projected SLR, enhanced gravitational circulation transports more oxygen-rich water in the bottom layer from the mouth. However, the pycnocline moves upwards along with increasing water depth, which largely prolongs the time for dissolved oxygen (DO) to be transported to the bottom. The altered physical processes contribute greatly to a larger HV bay-wide. Besides, SLR increases the whole Bay phytoplankton production, with a larger increase in shallow areas (e.g., 53% in areas with depth <1 m under SLR of 0.5 m). Enhanced light availability is suggested to be the major driver of blooming phytoplankton under SLR in shallow areas. While increased DO production over the euphotic zone is mostly released to the atmosphere and transported downstream, the increase in settled organic matter greatly promotes DO consumption in the water column. The increased respiration is another major cause of the HV increase besides the physical contributions.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Biophysical model of eelgrass and water quality in Coos Bay, OR shows greater mitigation potential for ocean acidification than hypoxia

Seagrass beds provide important ecosystem services and are valued, in part, for their potential to mediate stressors such as ocean acidification and hypoxia (OAH) for sensitive species. However, the susceptibility of seagrasses to anthropogenic impacts and recent declines motivate the need to better understand the drivers of seagrass and the water quality consequences that occur with variation in seagrass abundance. To meet this need, we leveraged existing monitoring data (water quality and seagrass), hydrodynamic circulation model, and biogeochemical model framework with seagrass submodel, to produce a biophysical model of Coos Bay estuary, Oregon, U.S. The model includes biogeochemical processes involving water quality, plankton, seagrass, and sediment-water interactions. Ecosystem models like this are useful for evaluating complex estuarine systems because they allow us to extend our understanding of system dynamics beyond existing observations and perform experiments to identify the processes driving observed patterns. We used the biophysical model of Coos Bay to evaluate the dynamics of water quality and native eelgrass (Zostera marina) under three eelgrass abundance scenarios (zero eelgrass, current extent, and maximum observed extent) to elucidate the relationship between eelgrass and OAH. Including eelgrass in the Coos Bay model produced results that more closely resembled water quality observations - dissolved oxygen (DO) and pH were more dynamic in simulations with eelgrass, often having both higher highs and lower lows. While there were some areas of the estuary where DO improved with the addition of eelgrass to the model there was overall a small net increase in harmful DO conditions (based on a salmon physiological threshold). In contrast, ocean acidification conditions, pH and calcium carbonate saturation state for aragonite (Ω), were improved (based on oyster requirements) with the addition of eelgrass - although the magnitude of improvement differed seasonally and spatially. Our new model represents a useful tool - one which accounts for and controls the relevant physical and biogeochemical processes - to evaluate conditions that confer resilience or enhance vulnerability to OAH in an important Pacific Northwest coastal estuary and results can inform the OAH-related dynamics occurring in other eastern boundary current estuaries.

FVCOM-ICM↗
DOE OSTI2024

Bayes_Opt-SWMM: A Gaussian process-based Bayesian optimization tool for real-time flood modeling with SWMM

Real-time flood model plays a pivotal role in averting urban flood damage, particularly when there is minimal lead time for preparatory measures. However, urban flood modeling in real-time often contends with inherent uncertainties arising from input data uncertainty and parameter ambiguities. Here this study introduces a real-time calibration (RTC) tool called Bayes_Opt-SWMM, specifically tailored for real-time urban flood modeling and uncertainty optimization. This tool leverages the Gaussian process-based Bayesian optimization algorithm and interfaces seamlessly with the Stormwater Management Model (SWMM). It integrates real-time model forcing data and flood monitoring collected through sensors and gauges which are strategically placed within critical locations of urban drainage systems. Our approach hinges on the Surrogate Model based Uncertainty Optimization (SMUO) concept, providing an avenue for enhancing real-time flood modeling. Bayes_Opt-SWMM runs the optimization process using a surrogate model called Gaussian Process emulator with two inference methods: (1) the Gaussian Process (GP) model and (2) Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithm in GP model (GP_MCMC). Furthermore, three acquisition functions, namely Expected Improvement (EI), Maximum Probability of Improvement (MPI), and Lower Confidence Bound (LCB), facilitate optimal parameter fitting within the surrogate models. The efficiency of GP-based surrogate models in learning SWMM model parameters, leads to an improved uncertainty quantification and accelerated real-time flood modeling in urban areas. Overall, Bayes_Opt-SWMM emerges as a cost-effective and valuable tool for real-time flood modeling and monitoring, with significant potential for managing intelligent storm water systems in urban environments.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗