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Results for “Bayesian optimisation”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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Learning and meta-learning of stochastic advection–diffusion–reaction systems from sparse measurements

Physics-informed neural networks (PINNs) were recently proposed in [18] as an alternative way to solve partial differential equations (PDEs). A neural network (NN) represents the solution, while a PDE-induced NN is coupled to the solution NN, and all differential operators are treated using automatic differentiation. Here, we first employ the standard PINN and a stochastic version, sPINN, to solve forward and inverse problems governed by a non-linear advection–diffusion–reaction (ADR) equation, assuming we have some sparse measurements of the concentration field at random or pre-selected locations. Subsequently, we attempt to optimise the hyper-parameters of sPINN by using the Bayesian optimisation method (meta-learning) and compare the results with the empirically selected hyper-parameters of sPINN. In particular, for the first part in solving the inverse deterministic ADR, we assume that we only have a few high-fidelity measurements, whereas the rest of the data is of lower fidelity. Hence, the PINN is trained using a composite multi-fidelity network, first introduced in [12], that learns the correlations between the multi-fidelity data and predicts the unknown values of diffusivity, transport velocity and two reaction constants as well as the concentration field. For the stochastic ADR, we employ a Karhunen–Loève (KL) expansion to represent the stochastic diffusivity, and arbitrary polynomial chaos (aPC) to represent the stochastic solution. Correspondingly, we design multiple NNs to represent the mean of the solution and learn each aPC mode separately, whereas we employ a separate NN to represent the mean of diffusivity and another NN to learn all modes of the KL expansion. For the inverse problem, in addition to stochastic diffusivity and concentration fields, we also aim to obtain the (unknown) deterministic values of transport velocity and reaction constants. The available data correspond to 7spatial points for the diffusivity and 20 space–time points for the solution, both sampled 2000 times. We obtain good accuracy for the deterministic parameters of the order of 1–2% and excellent accuracy for the mean and variance of the stochastic fields, better than three digits of accuracy. In the second part, we consider the previous stochastic inverse problem, and we use Bayesian optimisation to find five hyper-parameters of sPINN, namely the width, depth and learning rate of two NNs for learning the modes. Here, we obtain much deeper and wider optimal NNs compared to the manual tuning, leading to even better accuracy, i.e., errors less than 1% for the deterministic values, and about an order of magnitude less for the stochastic fields.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Tokamak divertor plasma emulation with machine learning

Abstract Future tokamak devices that aim to create conditions relevant to power plant operations must consider strategies for mitigating damage to plasma facing components in the divertor. One of the goals of MAST-U tokamak operations is to inform these considerations by researching advanced divertor configurations that aid stable plasma detachment. Machine design, scenario planning and detachment control would all greatly benefit from tools that enable rapid calculation of scenario-relevant quantities given some input parameters. This paper presents a method for generating large, simulated scrape-off layer data sets, which was applied to generate a data set of steady-state Hermes-3 simulations of the MAST-U tokamak. A machine learning model was constructed using a Bayesian approach to hyperparameter optimisation to predict diagnosable output quantities given control-relevant input features. The resulting best-performing model, which is based on a feedforward neural network, achieves high accuracy when predicting electron temperature at the divertor target and carbon impurity radiation front position and runs in around 1 ms in inference mode. Techniques for interpreting the predictions made by the model were applied, and a high-resolution parameter scan of upstream conditions was performed to demonstrate the utility of rapidly generating accurate predictions using the emulator. This work represents a step forward in the design of machine learning-driven emulators of tokamak exhaust simulation codes in operational modes relevant to divertor detachment control and plasma scenario design.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

A comparison between residential relocation timing of Sydney and Chicago residents: A Bayesian survival analysis

We report that understanding households' behaviour in residential relocation timing is of great importance in the field of transport engineering and economics. This research aims to develop a residential relocation model by considering the potential dynamic impacts of other households' decisions and variables, including economic and demographic attributes, housing features, intra-household decision-making structures, travel mode choice, and other life-course attributes. A multivariate parametric survival model with both fixed and time-varying covariates is developed. To the best of the authors' knowledge, this study is the first paper in the literature of residential relocation timing to propose the use of a Bayesian model in contrast to the widely used classic frequentist approach and have conducted a discussion on its advantages. An emerging residential relocation dataset collected for two cities in Australia and the USA (Sydney and Chicago cities) has been used, which covers residence, vehicle ownership, occupation, education, economic and demographic attributes of respondents. A comprehensive comparison between the results of two cities and a comparison between two Bayesian and frequentist approaches are made. This study confirms the impact of life-course variables, intra-household decision-making behaviours, and sociodemographic attributes on home mobility. According to the model outputs, the accelerating or decelerating impact of explanatory variables on the relocation timing has been almost the same in the two cities. The Bayesian model was confirmed to have some advantages over the frequentist model, including being straightforward to interpret, availability of making inferences on the results, and ease of handling complex models, and optimisation convergence complexities.

99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗

Inferring fracture dilation and shear slip from surface deformation utilising trained surrogate models

An important task in energy and CO 2 storage (sequestration) in the subsurface is to verify that the surrounding fractures and faults are not activated, acting as leakage pathways. This is achievable through effective and efficient Measurement, Monitoring and Verification (MMV) plans. In this work, two surrogate models are trained to captures dilation (opening) and shear deformation of fractures, and the associated surface deformation. The trained surrogate model, based on conditional Generative-Adversarial Networks (cGAN) receives fracture apertures from dilational fractures together with fracture slips from shear fractures and predicts the combined surface deformation. An inversion algorithm based on Bayesian framework is proposed to identify the geometry of both types of fractures, as well as volume of dilational fractures and deformation moment induced by shear fractures, all from the measured surface deformation data. The inversion algorithm utilises the Differential Evolution (DE) optimisation technique that has the superior performance in finding the global minimum of cost function. The proposed surrogate-assisted inversion successfully inferred the unknown dip, dip direction and the volume of the dilational fractures as well as the induced deformation moment in shear fractures. The model was further tested for the inversion of a field hydraulic fracturing tilt dataset applying different scenarios with varying unknowns to show the model's performance, as well as incorporating shear deformation for better match with the observed data.

Dilation and shear↗