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At least 19 records
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NASA NTRS2005

Bayesian Retrieval of Complete Posterior PDFs of Oceanic Rain Rate From Microwave Observations

This paper presents a new Bayesian algorithm for retrieving surface rain rate from Tropical Rainfall Measurements Mission (TRMM) Microwave Imager (TMI) over the ocean, along with validations against estimates from the TRMM Precipitation Radar (PR). The Bayesian approach offers a rigorous basis for optimally combining multichannel observations with prior knowledge. While other rain rate algorithms have been published that are based at least partly on Bayesian reasoning, this is believed to be the first self-contained algorithm that fully exploits Bayes Theorem to yield not just a single rain rate, but rather a continuous posterior probability distribution of rain rate. To advance our understanding of theoretical benefits of the Bayesian approach, we have conducted sensitivity analyses based on two synthetic datasets for which the true conditional and prior distribution are known. Results demonstrate that even when the prior and conditional likelihoods are specified perfectly, biased retrievals may occur at high rain rates. This bias is not the result of a defect of the Bayesian formalism but rather represents the expected outcome when the physical constraint imposed by the radiometric observations is weak, due to saturation effects. It is also suggested that the choice of the estimators and the prior information are both crucial to the retrieval. In addition, the performance of our Bayesian algorithm is found to be comparable to that of other benchmark algorithms in real-world applications, while having the additional advantage of providing a complete continuous posterior probability distribution of surface rain rate.

Chiu, J. Christine↗
NASA NTRS2020

Bayesian retrieval of optically relevant properties from hyperspectral water-leaving reflectances

Current methods to retrieve optically relevant properties from ocean color observations do not explicitly make use of prior knowledge about property distributions. Here we implement a simplified Bayesian approach that takes into account prior probability distributions on two sets of five optically relevant parameters, and conduct a retrieval of these parameters using hyperspectral simulated water-leaving reflectances. We focus specifically on the ability of the model to distinguish between two optically similar phytoplankton taxa, diatoms and Noctiluca scintillans. The inversion retrieval gives most-likely concentrations and uncertainty estimates, and we find that the model is able to probabilistically predict the occurrence of Noctiluca scintillans blooms using these metrics. We discuss how this method can be expanded to include a priori covariances between different parameters, and show the effect of varying measurement uncertainty and spectral resolution on Noctiluca scintillans bloom predictions.

Zachary K Erickson↗
NASA NTRS2008

GPM Pre-Launch Algorithm Development for Physically-Based Falling Snow Retrievals

In this work we compare and correlate the long time series (Nov.-March) n~easurements of precipitation rate from the Parsivels and 2DVD to the passive (89, 150, 183+/-1, +/-3, +/-7 GHz) observations of NOAA's AMSU-B radiometer. There are approximately 5-8 AMSU-B overpass views of the CARE site a day. We separate the comparisons into categories of no precipitation, liquid rain and falling snow precipitation. Scatterplots between the Parsivel snowfall rates and AMSU-B brightness temperatures (TBs) did not show an exploitable relationship for retrievals. We further compared and contrasted brightness temperatures to other surface measurements such as temperature and relative humidity with equally unsatisfying results. We found that there are similar TBs (especially at 89 and 150 GHz) for cases with falling snow and for non-precipitating cases. The comparisons indicate that surface emissivity contributions to the satellite observed TB over land can add uncertainty in detecting and estimating falling snow. The newest results show that the cloud icc scattering signal in the AMSU-B data call be detected by computing clear air TBs based on CARE radiosonde data and a rough estimate of surface emissivity. That is the differences in computed TI3 and AMSU-B TB for precipitating and nonprecipitating cases are unique such that the precipitating versus ~lon-precipitating cases can be identified. These results require that the radiosonde releases are within an hour of the AMSU-B data and allow for three surface types: no snow on the ground, less than 5 cm snow on the ground, and greater than 5 cm on the ground (as given by ground station data). Forest fraction and measured emissivities were combined to calculate the surface emissivities. The above work and future work to incorporate knowledge about falling snow retrievals into the framework of the expected GPM Bayesian retrievals will be described during this presentation.

Gail Skofronick-Jackson↗
NASA NTRS2024

Large Interferometer For Exoplanets (LIFE) XIII. The value of Combining Thermal Emission and Reflected Light for the Characterization of Earth Twins

Context. Following the recommendations to NASA (in the Astro2020 Decadal survey) and ESA (through the Voyage2050 process), the search for life on exoplanets will be a priority in the next decades. Two concepts for direct imaging space missions are being developed for this purpose: the Habitable Worlds Observatory (HWO) and the Large Interferometer for Exoplanets (LIFE). These two concepts operate in different spectral regimes: HWO is focused on reflected light spectra in the ultraviolet, visible, and near-infrared (UV/VIS/NIR), while LIFE will operate in the mid-infrared (MIR) to capture the thermal emission of temperate exoplanets. Aims. In this study, we aim to assess the potential of HWO and LIFE to characterize a cloud-free Earth twin orbiting a Sun-like star at a distance of 10 pc, both as separate missions and in synergy with each other. We aim to quantify the increase in information that can be gathered by joint atmospheric retrievals on a habitable planet. Methods. We performed Bayesian retrievals on simulated data obtained by an HWO-like mission and a LIFE-like one separately, then jointly. We considered the baseline spectral resolutions currently assumed for these concepts and used two increasingly complex noise simulations, obtained using state-of-the-art noise simulators. Results. An HWO-like concept would allow one to strongly constrain H 2 O, O 2 , and O 3 in the atmosphere of a cloud-free Earth twin, while the atmospheric temperature profile is not well constrained (with an average uncertainty ≈100 K). LIFE-like observations would strongly constrain CO 2 , H 2 O, and O 3 and provide stronger constraints on the thermal atmospheric structure and surface temperature (down to ≈10 K uncertainty). For all the investigated scenarios, both missions would provide an upper limit on CH 4 . A joint retrieval on HWO and LIFE data would accurately define the atmospheric thermal profile and planetary parameters. It would decisively constrain CO 2 , H 2 O, O 2 , and O 3 and find weak constraints on CO and CH 4 . The significance of the detection is in all cases greater than or equal to the single-instrument retrievals. Conclusions. Both missions provide specific information that is relevant for the characterization of a terrestrial habitable exoplanet, but the scientific yield can be maximized by considering synergistic studies of UV/VIS/NIR+MIR observations. The use of HWO and LIFE together will provide stronger constraints on biosignatures and life indicators, with the potential to be transformative for the search for life in the Universe.

E Alei↗
NASA NTRS2019

Uncertainty in Soil Moisture Retrievals: an Ensemble Approach Using SMOS L-Band Microwave Data

The uncertainty of soil moisture (SM) retrievals from satellite brightness temperature (TB) observations depends primarily on the choice of radiative transfer model (RTM) parameters, prior SM information and TB inputs. This paper studies the sensitivity of several (quasi-)operational and experimental SM retrieval products from the Soil Moisture Ocean Salinity (SMOS) mission to these choices at 11 reference sites, located in 7 watersheds across the United States (US). Different literature-based RTM parameter sets cause large biases between retrievals. Whereas typical RTM parameter sets are calibrated for SM retrievals, it is shown that a parameter set carefully optimized for TB forward modeling can also be used for retrieving SM. It is also shown that the inclusion of dynamic prior SM estimates in a Bayesian retrieval scheme can strongly improve SM retrievals, regardless of the choice of RTM parameters, and that the use of multi-angular and multi-polarization TB does not necessarily lead to superior retrievals compared to retrievals based on TB data at a single incidence angle and polarization. The second part of this paper evaluates ensemble uncertainty metrics for SM retrievals obtained by propagating a wide range of RTM parameters through the RTM. As expected for bounded variables, the spread in the ensemble SM retrievals is smallest for wet and dry SM values and highest for intermediate SM values. After removal of the strong long-term mean bias associated with the RTM parameter values for individual ensemble members, the remaining anomaly ensemble SM spread of 0.037 cu m/cu m approximates the actual time series unbiased root-mean-square-difference of 0.042 cu m/cu m between ensemble mean retrievals and in situ reference data across the reference sites. However, the temporal variability in the anomaly ensemble spread reveals higher-order biases in the retrieval error, which should be accounted for when characterizing retrieval error.

Jan Quets↗
NASA NTRS2019

First Steps in the Creation of a Joint MISR/MODIS Ocean Color Atmospheric Correction Algorithm

We are creating a new algorithm that combines observations from MISR and MODIS (both on the NASA Terra spacecraft) to improve atmospheric correction and coverage for ocean color data products. The algorithm utilizes information rich, multi-angle MISR observations for atmospheric correction, applied to MODIS. Our goal is to produce atmospherically corrected Remote Sensing Reflectance from MODIS with enhanced coverage and accuracy, for input to downstream bio-optical ocean parameter retrieval algorithms.An important aspect of this work is the utilization of multi-angle views of the reflected ocean surface sun glint. Usually, such observations are avoided, since the intensity of the glint overwhelms any contribution from the ocean body. However, MISR's multi-angle observations see varying degrees of glint, which means they can be used to better determine aerosol optical properties (Kaufman et al., 2002, Ottaviani et al., 2013), and to identify surface wind speeds that govern the glint pattern. The latter could be utilized to replace the wind speeds taken from ancillary sources that are currently used to conservatively mask potential glint contamination in MODIS observations.To assess this capability, and to identify the appropriate parameterization, we present an analysis using the Generalized Nonlinear Retrieval Analysis (GENRA, Vukicevic et al., 2009) information content assessment. This technique is also easily modified to act as a Bayesian retrieval algorithm, for which initial results are discussed. Finally, we describe the status of integrating MISR data into the processing capabilities of the Ocean Biology Processing Group (OBPG) at NASA, and show the first ocean color vicarious calibration (Franz et al., 2007) of the MISR instrument.

Knobelspiesse, Kirk↗
NASA NTRS2022

On the Effects of Cloud Water Content on Passive Microwave Snowfall Retrievals

The Bayesian passive microwave retrievals of snowfall often rely on mathematical matching of the observed vectors of brightness temperature with an a priori database of precipitation profiles and their corresponding brightness temperatures. Mathematical proximity does not necessarily lead to consistent retrievals due to limited information content of passive microwave observations. This paper defines imposter (genuine) vectors of brightness temperature as those that are mathematically close but physically inconsistent (consistent) and characterizes them through the Silhouette Coefficient (SC) analysis. The Neyman–Pearson (NP) hypothesis testing is used to separate the imposter and genuine brightness temperatures based on their associated values of cloud ice (IWP) and liquid water path (LWP), given by coincidences of CloudSat Profiling Radar (CPR) and the Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM) Microwave Imager (GMI). The study determines thresholds for IWP and LWP that allow optimal identification of imposter brightness temperatures of non-snowing and snowing clouds, which can mislead the passive microwave retrieval algorithms to falsely detect or miss the snowfall events. It is demonstrated that emission signal of supercooled liquid water in snowing clouds can lead to improved passive microwave retrieval of snowfall and conditioning the retrievals to the cloud IWP and LWP can result in marginal correction of the snowfall detection probability; however, reduce the probability of false alarm by 6%–8% over sea ice and open oceans.

Snowfall↗
NASA NTRS2008

A Physical Model to Estimate Snowfall over Land using AMSU-B Observations

In this study, we present an improved physical model to retrieve snowfall rate over land using brightness temperature observations from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's (NOAA) Advanced Microwave Sounder Unit-B (AMSU-B) at 89 GHz, 150 GHz, 183.3 +/- 1 GHz, 183.3 +/- 3 GHz, and 183.3 +/- 7 GHz. The retrieval model is applied to the New England blizzard of March 5, 2001 which deposited about 75 cm of snow over much of Vermont, New Hampshire, and northern New York. In this improved physical model, prior retrieval assumptions about snowflake shape, particle size distributions, environmental conditions, and optimization methodology have been updated. Here, single scattering parameters for snow particles are calculated with the Discrete-Dipole Approximation (DDA) method instead of assuming spherical shapes. Five different snow particle models (hexagonal columns, hexagonal plates, and three different kinds of aggregates) are considered. Snow particle size distributions are assumed to vary with air temperature and to follow aircraft measurements described by previous studies. Brightness temperatures at AMSU-B frequencies for the New England blizzard are calculated using these DDA calculated single scattering parameters and particle size distributions. The vertical profiles of pressure, temperature, relative humidity and hydrometeors are provided by MM5 model simulations. These profiles are treated as the a priori data base in the Bayesian retrieval algorithm. In algorithm applications to the blizzard data, calculated brightness temperatures associated with selected database profiles agree with AMSU-B observations to within about +/- 5 K at all five frequencies. Retrieved snowfall rates compare favorably with the near-concurrent National Weather Service (NWS) radar reflectivity measurements. The relationships between the NWS radar measured reflectivities Z(sub e) and retrieved snowfall rate R for a given snow particle model are derived by a histogram matching technique. All of these Z(sub e)-R relationships fall in the range of previously established Z(sub e)-R relationships for snowfall. This suggests that the current physical model developed in this study can reliably estimate the snowfall rate over land using the AMSU-B measured brightness temperatures.

Kim, Min-Jeong↗
NASA NTRS2012

Parametric 3D Atmospheric Reconstruction in Highly Variable Terrain with Recycled Monte Carlo Paths and an Adapted Bayesian Inference Engine

We describe a method for accelerating a 3D Monte Carlo forward radiative transfer model to the point where it can be used in a new kind of Bayesian retrieval framework. The remote sensing challenge is to detect and quantify a chemical effluent of a known absorbing gas produced by an industrial facility in a deep valley. The available data is a single low resolution noisy image of the scene in the near IR at an absorbing wavelength for the gas of interest. The detected sunlight has been multiply reflected by the variable terrain and/or scattered by an aerosol that is assumed partially known and partially unknown. We thus introduce a new class of remote sensing algorithms best described as "multi-pixel" techniques that call necessarily for a 3D radaitive transfer model (but demonstrated here in 2D); they can be added to conventional ones that exploit typically multi- or hyper-spectral data, sometimes with multi-angle capability, with or without information about polarization. The novel Bayesian inference methodology uses adaptively, with efficiency in mind, the fact that a Monte Carlo forward model has a known and controllable uncertainty depending on the number of sun-to-detector paths used.

Monte Carlo↗
NASA NTRS2011

A Grobner Basis Solution for Lightning Ground Flash Fraction Retrieval

A Bayesian inversion method was previously introduced for retrieving the fraction of ground flashes in a set of flashes observed from a (low earth orbiting or geostationary) satellite lightning imager. The method employed a constrained mixed exponential distribution model to describe the lightning optical measurements. To obtain the optimum model parameters, a scalar function was minimized by a numerical method. In order to improve this optimization, we introduce a Grobner basis solution to obtain analytic representations of the model parameters that serve as a refined initialization scheme to the numerical optimization. Using the Grobner basis, we show that there are exactly 2 solutions involving the first 3 moments of the (exponentially distributed) data. When the mean of the ground flash optical characteristic (e.g., such as the Maximum Group Area, MGA) is larger than that for cloud flashes, then a unique solution can be obtained.

Solakiewicz, Richard↗
NASA NTRS2021

Passive Microwave Signatures and Retrieval of High-Latitude Snowfall Over Open Oceans and Sea Ice: Insights From Coincidences of GPM and CloudSat Satellites

This article studies changes in microwave signals of oceanic snowfall in response to the formation of snow-covered sea ice using active and passive coincident data from the radar and radiometer onboard the CloudSat and the global precipitation measurement satellites. Using reanalysis data of liquid and ice water path as well as satellite retrievals of sea ice snow-cover depth, spectral regions are determined over which the snowfall signatures are likely to be obscured or falsely detected. Relying on an a priori database populated with the active–passive coincidences, a Bayesian snowfall retrieval algorithm is presented that links a k -nearest neighbor matching with the inverse Gaussian estimator used in the Goddard profiling algorithm. Without relying on any ancillary data of air temperature, the results demonstrate that over open oceans (sea ice), we can passively retrieve the CloudSat active snowfalls with a true positive rate of 92 (85%) and the root mean squared error of 0.24 (0.15) mm per h.

Sajad Vahedizade↗
NASA NTRS2019

An Ensemble of Bayesian Neural Networks for Exoplanetary Atmospheric Retrieval

Machine learning (ML) is now used in many areas of astrophysics, from detecting exoplanets in Kepler transit signals to removing telescope systematics. Recent work demonstrated the potential of using ML algorithms for atmospheric retrieval by implementing a random forest (RF) to perform retrievals in seconds that are consistent with the traditional, computationally expensive nested-sampling retrieval method. We expand upon their approach by presenting a new ML model, plan-net, based on an ensemble of Bayesian neural networks (BNNs) that yields more accurate inferences than the RF for the same data set of synthetic transmission spectra. We demonstrate that an ensemble provides greater accuracy and more robust uncertainties than a single model. In addition to being the first to use BNNs for atmospheric retrieval, we also introduce a new loss function for BNNs that learns correlations between the model outputs. Importantly, we show that designing ML models to explicitly incorporate domain-specific knowledge both improves performance and provides additional insight by inferring the covariance of the retrieved atmospheric parameters. We apply plan-net to the Hubble Space Telescope Wide Field Camera 3 transmission spectrum for WASP-12b and retrieve an isothermal temperature and water abundance consistent with the literature. We highlight that our method is flexible and can be expanded to higher resolution spectra and a larger number of atmospheric parameters.

Adam D. Cobb↗
NASA NTRS2010

A Ground Flash Fraction Retrieval Algorithm for GLM

A Bayesian inversion method is introduced for retrieving the fraction of ground flashes in a set of N lightning observed by a satellite lightning imager (such as the Geostationary Lightning Mapper, GLM). An exponential model is applied as a physically reasonable constraint to describe the measured lightning optical parameter distributions. Population statistics (i.e., the mean and variance) are invoked to add additional constraints to the retrieval process. The Maximum A Posteriori (MAP) solution is employed. The approach is tested by performing simulated retrievals, and retrieval error statistics are provided. The approach is feasible for N greater than 2000, and retrieval errors decrease as N is increased.

Koshak, William J.↗
NASA NTRS1995

A Bayesian approach to microwave precipitation profile retrieval

A multichannel passive microwave precipitation retrieval algorithm is developed. Bayes theorem is used to combine statistical information from numerical cloud models with forward radiative transfer modeling. A multivariate lognormal prior probability distribution contains the covariance information about hydrometeor distribution that resolves the nonuniqueness inherent in the inversion process. Hydrometeor profiles are retrieved by maximizing the posterior probability density for each vector of observations. The hydrometeor profile retrieval method is tested with data from the Advanced Microwave Precipitation Radiometer (10, 19, 37, and 85 GHz) of convection over ocean and land in Florida. The CP-2 multiparameter radar data are used to verify the retrieved profiles. The results show that the method can retrieve approximate hydrometeor profiles, with larger errors over land than water. There is considerably greater accuracy in the retrieval of integrated hydrometeor contents than of profiles. Many of the retrieval errors are traced to problems with the cloud model microphysical information, and future improvements to the algorithm are suggested.

Evans, K. Franklin↗
NASA NTRS2004

Precipitation and Latent Heating Distributions from Satellite Passive Microwave Radiometry: Method and Uncertainties - Part 1

A revised Bayesian algorithm for estimating surface rain rate, convective rain proportion, and latent heating/drying profiles from satellite-borne passive microwave radiometer observations over ocean backgrounds is described. The algorithm searches a large database of cloud-radiative model simulations to find cloud profiles that are radiatively consistent with a given set of microwave radiance measurements. The properties of these radiatively consistent profiles are then composited to obtain best estimates of the observed properties. The revised algorithm is supported by an expanded and more physically consistent database of cloud-radiative model simulations. The algorithm also features a better quantification of the convective and non-convective contributions to total rainfall, a new geographic database, and an improved representation of background radiances in rain-free regions. Bias and random error estimates are derived from applications of the algorithm to synthetic radiance data, based upon a subset of cloud resolving model simulations, and from the Bayesian formulation itself. Synthetic rain rate and latent heating estimates exhibit a trend of high (low) bias for low (high) retrieved values. The Bayesian estimates of random error are propagated to represent errors at coarser time and space resolutions, based upon applications of the algorithm to TRMM Microwave Imager (TMI) data. Errors in instantaneous rain rate estimates at 0.5 deg resolution range from approximately 50% at 1 mm/h to 20% at 14 mm/h. These errors represent about 70-90% of the mean random deviation between collocated passive microwave and spaceborne radar rain rate estimates. The cumulative algorithm error in TMI estimates at monthly, 2.5 deg resolution is relatively small (less than 6% at 5 mm/day) compared to the random error due to infrequent satellite temporal sampling (8-35% at the same rain rate).

Olson, William S.↗