Bayesian Search of Massive Scalar Fields from LIGO-Virgo-KAGRA Binaries
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Yiqi Xie↗
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Inertial Confinement Fusion Design Search Using Bayesian Optimization
Inertial confinement fusion (ICF) experiments rely on complex multi-physics simulation codes such as the Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory-developed HYDRA to guide design work. However, these simulations have several dozen tunable parameters and can be computationally expensive. This makes searching the parameter space challenging and time-consuming. Recently developed automated tools utilize Bayesian optimization to search these high-dimensional parameter spaces for optimal designs. The optimization tools run 2D integrated simulations in HYDRA to converge on a design that produces specified scalar or vector outputs. In this paper, we apply the Bayesian optimization tools to two common tuning scenarios. First, we tune simulation inputs to match measurements of a well-characterized experiment at the National Ignition Facility. This type of tuning is commonly performed to compensate for the use of simplified simulation settings (e.g. reduced resolution) or to account for missing physics in the simulations. Second, we search for an ICF simulation design that has a particular radiation drive profile. These optimizations replicate the kinds of tuning researchers routinely perform, but do so with significantly reduced manual effort. This approach demonstrates a powerful and efficient pathway toward autonomous, high-fidelity design optimization for future ICF experiments.
Bayesian optimization↗
BATSE gamma-ray burst line search. 2: Bayesian consistency methodology
We describe a Bayesian methodology to evaluate the consistency between the reported Ginga and Burst and Transient Source Experiment (BATSE) detections of absorption features in gamma-ray burst spectra. Currently no features have been detected by BATSE, but this methodology will still be applicable if and when such features are discovered. The Bayesian methodology permits the comparison of hypotheses regarding the two detectors' observations and makes explicit the subjective aspects of our analysis (e.g., the quantification of our confidence in detector performance). We also present non-Bayesian consistency statistics. Based on preliminary calculations of line detectability, we find that both the Bayesian and non-Bayesian techniques show that the BATSE and Ginga observations are consistent given our understanding of these detectors.
Band, D. L.↗
Remote Sensing-Driven Hydrodynamic Modeling in Data-Scarce Regions: Integrating ICESat-2, Sentinel-2, SWOT and Re-analysis Models for Coastal Monitoring
Hydrodynamic models in coastal and estuarine systems are typically constrained by sparse bathymetry, boundary, and validation data, especially in regions where field campaigns are costly or impractical. Here we develop and test a fully satellite-driven framework for hydrodynamic modeling in South Africa’s Langebaan Lagoon without using any local in situ measurements. Bathymetry is derived by training multispectral Sentinel-2 reflectance against ICESat-2 ATL24 photon-derived depths using an XGBoost model optimized with Bayesian search. The final satellite-derived bathymetry reproduces independent ATL24 points with RMSE = 0.45 m and R 2 = 0.97. This bathymetry was used in a depth-averaged Delft3D Flexible Mesh model driven at the open boundary by TPXO tidal harmonics and by ERA5 winds. We validate modeled water surface elevation against 16 SWOT low-rate (250 m, unsmoothed) passes in 2023. SWOT–model comparisons yield an overall RMSE of 0.11 m and R 2 = 0.61, with typical point differences <0.10 m (∼7% of the 1.5 m tidal range), and showed consistent spatial gradients in water level from the offshore boundary, through Saldanha Bay, and into the lagoon. At the offshore boundary, TPXO and SWOT sea surface heights agree closely (R 2 = 0.86). A simple phase adjustment of ∼26,min between TPXO and SWOT lowers the RMSE from 0.18,m to 0.11,m, showing that phase offset accounts for some of the discrepancy, with additional errors likely linked to non-tidal signals. Our results demonstrate that combining passive optical, photon-counting LiDAR, radar interferometry, and global tidal/atmospheric models enables robust, transferrable hydrodynamic modeling in data-scarce coastal systems, offering a cost-effective pathway for monitoring.
ICESat-2↗
Stochastic machine learning via sigma profiles to build a digital chemical space
This work establishes a different paradigm on digital molecular spaces and their efficient navigation by exploiting sigma profiles. To do so, the remarkable capability of Gaussian processes (GPs), a type of stochastic machine learning model, to correlate and predict physicochemical properties from sigma profiles is demonstrated, outperforming state-of-the-art neural networks previously published. The amount of chemical information encoded in sigma profiles eases the learning burden of machine learning models, permitting the training of GPs on small datasets which, due to their negligible computational cost and ease of implementation, are ideal models to be combined with optimization tools such as gradient search or Bayesian optimization (BO). Gradient search is used to efficiently navigate the sigma profile digital space, quickly converging to local extrema of target physicochemical properties. While this requires the availability of pretrained GP models on existing datasets, such limitations are eliminated with the implementation of BO, which can find global extrema with a limited number of iterations. A remarkable example of this is that of BO toward boiling temperature optimization. Holding no knowledge of chemistry except for the sigma profile and boiling temperature of carbon monoxide (the worst possible initial guess), BO finds the global maximum of the available boiling temperature dataset (over 1,000 molecules encompassing more than 40 families of organic and inorganic compounds) in just 15 iterations (i.e., 15 property measurements), cementing sigma profiles as a powerful digital chemical space for molecular optimization and discovery, particularly when little to no experimental data is initially available.
37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
Neglecting Model Parametric Uncertainty Can Drastically Underestimate Flood Risks
Abstract Floods drive dynamic and deeply uncertain risks for people and infrastructures. Uncertainty characterization is a crucial step in improving the predictive understanding of multi‐sector dynamics and the design of risk‐management strategies. Current approaches to estimate flood hazards often sample only a relatively small subset of the known unknowns, for example, the uncertainties surrounding the model parameters. This approach neglects the impacts of key uncertainties on hazards and system dynamics. Here we mainstream a recently developed method for Bayesian inference to calibrate a computationally expensive distributed hydrologic model. We compare three different calibration approaches: (a) stepwise line search, (b) precalibration or screening, and (c) the Fast Model Calibrations (FaMoS) approach. FaMoS deploys a particle‐based approach that takes advantage of the massive parallelization afforded by modern high‐performance computing systems. We quantify how neglecting parametric uncertainty and data discrepancy can drastically underestimate extreme flood events and risks. Precalibration improves prediction skill score over a stepwise line search. The Bayesian calibration improves the uncertainty characterization of model parameters and flood risk projections.
54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
Initialization and Restart in Stochastic Local Search: Computing a Most Probable Explanation in Bayesian Networks
For hard computational problems, stochastic local search has proven to be a competitive approach to finding optimal or approximately optimal problem solutions. Two key research questions for stochastic local search algorithms are: Which algorithms are effective for initialization? When should the search process be restarted? In the present work we investigate these research questions in the context of approximate computation of most probable explanations (MPEs) in Bayesian networks (BNs). We introduce a novel approach, based on the Viterbi algorithm, to explanation initialization in BNs. While the Viterbi algorithm works on sequences and trees, our approach works on BNs with arbitrary topologies. We also give a novel formalization of stochastic local search, with focus on initialization and restart, using probability theory and mixture models. Experimentally, we apply our methods to the problem of MPE computation, using a stochastic local search algorithm known as Stochastic Greedy Search. By carefully optimizing both initialization and restart, we reduce the MPE search time for application BNs by several orders of magnitude compared to using uniform at random initialization without restart. On several BNs from applications, the performance of Stochastic Greedy Search is competitive with clique tree clustering, a state-of-the-art exact algorithm used for MPE computation in BNs.
Mengshoel, Ole J.↗
Descriptor Aided Bayesian Optimization for Many-Level Qualitative Variables With Materials Design Applications
Abstract Engineering design often involves qualitative and quantitative design variables, which requires systematic methods for the exploration of these mixed-variable design spaces. Expensive simulation techniques, such as those required to evaluate optimization objectives in materials design applications, constitute the main portion of the cost of the design process and underline the need for efficient search strategies—Bayesian optimization (BO) being one of the most widely adopted. Although recent developments in mixed-variable Bayesian optimization have shown promise, the effects of dimensionality of qualitative variables have not been well studied. High-dimensional qualitative variables, i.e., with many levels, impose a large design cost as they typically require a larger dataset to quantify the effect of each level on the optimization objective. We address this challenge by leveraging domain knowledge about underlying physical descriptors, which embody the physics of the underlying physical phenomena, to infer the effect of unobserved levels that have not been sampled yet. We show that physical descriptors can be intuitively embedded into the latent variable Gaussian process approach—a mixed-variable GP modeling technique—and used to selectively explore levels of qualitative variables in the Bayesian optimization framework. This physics-informed approach is particularly useful when one or more qualitative variables are high dimensional (many-level) and the modeling dataset is small, containing observations for only a subset of levels. Through a combination of mathematical test functions and materials design applications, our method is shown to be robust to certain types of incomplete domain knowledge and significantly reduces the design cost for problems with high-dimensional qualitative variables.
Engineering↗
Bayesian forecasts for dark matter substructure searches with mock pulsar timing data
Dark matter substructure, such as primordial black holes (PBHs) and axion miniclusters, can induce phase shifts in pulsar timing arrays (PTAs) measurements due to gravitational effects. In order to gain a more realistic forecast for the detectability of such models of dark matter with PTAs, we propose a Bayesian inference framework to search for phase shifts generated by PBHs and perform the analysis on mock PTA data. Furthermore, for most PBH masses the constraints on the dark matter abundance agree with previous (frequentist) analyses (without mock data) to $\mathcal{O}$(1) factors. This further motivates a dedicated search for PBHs (and dense small scale structures) in the mass range from 10 -8 M ⊙ to well above 10 2 M ⊙ with the Square Kilometer Array. Moreover, with a more optimistic set of timing parameters, future PTAs are predicted to constrain PBHs down to 10 -11 M ⊙ . Lastly, we discuss the impact of backgrounds, such as Supermassive Black Hole Mergers, on detection prospects, suggesting a future program to separate a dark matter signal from other astrophysical sources.
79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
Adaptive Interface-PINNs (AdaI-PINNs) for inverse problems: Determining material properties for heterogeneous systems
Here, we determine spatially varying discontinuous material properties using a domain-decomposition based physics-informed neural networks (PINNs) framework named the Adaptive Interface-PINNs or AdaI-PINNs (Roy et al., 2024). We propose the use of distinct neural networks for the field variables and material properties within each material, utilizing adaptive activation functions. While the neural networks across different materials share the same weights and biases, their activation functions are uniquely tailored using a hyperparameter that influences the slope of the activation function. The proposed framework is tested on several one-dimensional and two-dimensional benchmark examples, and its performance is compared with conventional PINNs and existing domain-decomposition PINNs frameworks, namely, the Multi-domain physics-informed neural network (M-PINN), and the eXtended physics-informed neural networks (XPINNs). The results demonstrate that the proposed approach can determine randomly distributed discontinuous material properties with an L 2 error of $\mathscr{O}$ (10 -3 ) for the material property and the root-mean-square error of $\mathscr{O}$ (10 -3 ) for the primary variable while the other approaches yield errors that are approximately two orders of magnitude larger (that is, $\mathscr{O}$ (10 -1 )). Moreover, the spatial distribution of material properties obtained using the proposed framework is in close agreement with the true distribution, whereas the other approaches fare much worse. Additionally, the proposed approach is approximately 40% faster than its competitors, indicating its potential as a robust alternative for solving inverse problems in heterogeneous materials.
36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
Training Spiking Neural Networks with Synaptic Plasticity under Integer Representation
Neuromorphic computing is emerging as a promising Beyond Moore computing paradigm that employs event-triggered computation and non-von Neumann hardware. Spike Timing Dependent Plasticity (STDP) is a well-known bio-inspired learning rule that relies on activities of locally connected neurons to adjust the weights of their respective synapses. In this work, we analyze a basic STDP rule and its sensitivity on the different hyperparameters for training spiking neural networks (SNNs) with supervision, customized for a neuromorphic hardware implementation with integer weights. We compare the classification performance on four UCI datasets (iris, wine, breast cancer and digits) that depict varying levels of complexity. We perform a search for optimal set of hyperparameters using both grid search and Bayesian optimization. Through the use of Bayesian optimization, we show the general trends in hyperparameter sensitivity in SNN classification problem. With the best sets of hyperparameters, we achieve accuracies comparable to some of the best performing SNNs on these four datasets. With a highly optimized supervised STDP rule we show that these accuracies can be achieved with just 20 epochs of training.
Kulkarni, Shruti↗
Portfolios in Stochastic Local Search: Efficiently Computing Most Probable Explanations in Bayesian Networks
Portfolio methods support the combination of different algorithms and heuristics, including stochastic local search (SLS) heuristics, and have been identified as a promising approach to solve computationally hard problems. While successful in experiments, theoretical foundations and analytical results for portfolio-based SLS heuristics are less developed. This article aims to improve the understanding of the role of portfolios of heuristics in SLS. We emphasize the problem of computing most probable explanations (MPEs) in Bayesian networks (BNs). Algorithmically, we discuss a portfolio-based SLS algorithm for MPE computation, Stochastic Greedy Search (SGS). SGS supports the integration of different initialization operators (or initialization heuristics) and different search operators (greedy and noisy heuristics), thereby enabling new analytical and experimental results. Analytically, we introduce a novel Markov chain model tailored to portfolio-based SLS algorithms including SGS, thereby enabling us to analytically form expected hitting time results that explain empirical run time results. For a specific BN, we show the benefit of using a homogenous initialization portfolio. To further illustrate the portfolio approach, we consider novel additive search heuristics for handling determinism in the form of zero entries in conditional probability tables in BNs. Our additive approach adds rather than multiplies probabilities when computing the utility of an explanation. We motivate the additive measure by studying the dramatic impact of zero entries in conditional probability tables on the number of zero-probability explanations, which again complicates the search process. We consider the relationship between MAXSAT and MPE, and show that additive utility (or gain) is a generalization, to the probabilistic setting, of MAXSAT utility (or gain) used in the celebrated GSAT and WalkSAT algorithms and their descendants. Utilizing our Markov chain framework, we show that expected hitting time is a rational function - i.e. a ratio of two polynomials - of the probability of applying an additive search operator. Experimentally, we report on synthetically generated BNs as well as BNs from applications, and compare SGSs performance to that of Hugin, which performs BN inference by compilation to and propagation in clique trees. On synthetic networks, SGS speeds up computation by approximately two orders of magnitude compared to Hugin. In application networks, our approach is highly competitive in Bayesian networks with a high degree of determinism. In addition to showing that stochastic local search can be competitive with clique tree clustering, our empirical results provide an improved understanding of the circumstances under which portfolio-based SLS outperforms clique tree clustering and vice versa.
Mengshoel, Ole J.↗
Physicochemical and Performance Characterization of Six Commercial Organic Solvent Nanofiltration Membranes
This work introduces a novel, gradient-free metamaterial design method based on Gaussian process regression to represent the density field of a unit cell. The dimension of the design space is determined by the covariance matrix dimension in the Gaussian process regression. We propose compressing this matrix using an autoencoder, enabling the decoder to generate the density field and effectively reduce the originally large design space to a lower-dimensional subspace. In this compressed space, we employ an active learning method, Bayesian Adaptive Direct Search (BADS), for efficient exploration of the design space. We demonstrate that for simple 2D designs aimed at maximizing unit cell stiffness, our method yields results comparable to those of standard topology optimization. Furthermore, we extend our approach to various mechanical problems, from linear elasticity to hyperelastic large deformation and elasto-plasticity under finite deformation, to 3D metamaterial design. This illustrates the method’s versatility and effectiveness across a range of applications.
Wu, Haoran↗
Guided search for desired functional responses via Bayesian optimization of generative model: Hysteresis loop shape engineering in ferroelectrics
Advances in theoretical modeling across multiple disciplines have yielded generative models capable of high veracity in predicting macroscopic functional responses of materials emerging as a result of complex non-local interactions. Correspondingly, of interest is the inverse problem of finding the model parameter that will yield desired macroscopic responses, such as stress–strain curves, ferroelectric hysteresis loops, etc. Here, we suggest and implement Gaussian process based methods that allow to effectively sample the degenerate parameter space of a complex non-local model to output regions of parameter space which yield desired functionalities. In this work, we discuss the specific adaptation of the acquisition function and sampling function to make the process efficient and balance the efficient exploration of parameter space for multiple possible minima and exploitation to densely sample the regions of interest where target behaviors are optimized. Additionally, this approach is illustrated via the hysteresis loop engineering in ferroelectric materials but can be adapted to other functionalities and generative models.
75 CONDENSED MATTER PHYSICS, SUPERCONDUCTIVITY AND↗
Search for low mass dark matter in DarkSide-50: the bayesian network approach
Abstract We present a novel approach for the search of dark matter in the DarkSide-50 experiment, relying on Bayesian Networks. This method incorporates the detector response model into the likelihood function, explicitly maintaining the connection with the quantity of interest. No assumptions about the linearity of the problem or the shape of the probability distribution functions are required, and there is no need to morph signal and background spectra as a function of nuisance parameters. By expressing the problem in terms of Bayesian Networks, we have developed an inference algorithm based on a Markov Chain Monte Carlo to calculate the posterior probability. A clever description of the detector response model in terms of parametric matrices allows us to study the impact of systematic variations of any parameter on the final results. Our approach not only provides the desired information on the parameter of interest, but also potential constraints on the response model. Our results are consistent with recent published analyses and further refine the parameters of the detector response model.
72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗
Hybrid Parameter Search and Dynamic Model Selection for Mixed-Variable Bayesian Optimization
Herein this article presents a new type of hybrid model for Bayesian optimization (BO) adept at managing mixed variables, encompassing both quantitative (continuous and integer) and qualitative (categorical) types. Our proposed new hybrid models (named hybridM) merge the Monte Carlo Tree Search structure (MCTS) for categorical variables with Gaussian Processes (GP) for continuous ones. hybridM leverages the upper confidence bound tree search (UCTS) for MCTS strategy, showcasing the tree architecture’s integration into Bayesian optimization. Our innovations, including dynamic online kernel selection in the surrogate modeling phase and a unique UCTS search strategy, position our hybrid models as an advancement in mixed-variable surrogate models. Numerical experiments underscore the superiority of hybrid models, highlighting their potential in Bayesian optimization.
97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
PMU-data-driven Event Classification in Power Transmission Grids
This paper presents an event classification in transmission grids. The convolutional neural network (CNN)-based classifier is proposed to capture the temporal similarity of time-synchronized data stream from phasor measurement units (PMUs). The proposed CNN is trained using Bayesian optimization to search for the best hyperparameters. The effectiveness of the proposed event classification is validated through the real-world dataset from the U.S. transmission grids. This dataset includes line outage, transformer outage, frequency, and oscillation events. The validation process also includes different PMU outputs, such as voltage magnitude, phase angle, current magnitude, frequency, and rate of change of frequency (ROCOF). The results show that ROCOF gives the best classification performance compared to other PMU outputs. In addition, it is shown that the classifier trained with a larger dataset has higher accuracy. Moreover, the superiority of the proposed method is validated through comparison with other state-of-the-art classification methods.
Niazazari, Iman↗
CAFQA: A Classical Simulation Bootstrap for Variational Quantum Algorithms
Classical computing plays a critical role in the advancement of quantum frontiers in the NISQ era. In this spirit, this work uses classical simulation to bootstrap Variational Quantum Algorithms (VQAs). VQAs rely upon the iterative optimization of a parameterized unitary circuit (ansatz) with respect to an objective function. Since quantum machines are noisy and expensive resources, it is imperative to classically choose the VQA ansatz initial parameters to be as close to optimal as possible to improve VQA accuracy and accelerate their convergence on today’s devices. This work tackles the problem of finding a good ansatz initialization, by proposing CAFQA, a Clifford Ansatz For Quantum Accuracy. The CAFQA ansatz is a hardware-efficient circuit built with only Clifford gates. In this ansatz, the parameters for the tunable gates are chosen by searching efficiently through the Clifford parameter space via classical simulation. The resulting initial states always equal or outperform traditional classical initialization (e.g., Hartree-Fock), and enable high-accuracy VQA estimations. CAFQA is well-suited to classical computation because: a) Clifford-only quantum circuits can be exactly simulated classically in polynomial time, and b) the discrete Clifford space is searched efficiently via Bayesian Optimization. For the Variational Quantum Eigensolver (VQE) task of molecular ground state energy estimation (up to 18 qubits), CAFQA’s Clifford Ansatz achieves a mean accuracy of nearly 99% and recovers as much as 99.99% of the molecular correlation energy that is lost in Hartree-Fock initialization. CAFQA achieves mean accuracy improvements of 6.4x and 56.8x, over the state-of-the-art, on different metrics. Here, the scalability of the approach allows for preliminary ground state energy estimation of the challenging chromium dimer (Cr2) molecule. With CAFQA’s high-accuracy initialization, the convergence of VQAs is shown to accelerate by 2.5x, even for small molecules. Furthermore, preliminary exploration of allowing a limited number of non-Clifford (T) gates in the CAFQA framework, shows that as much as 99.9% of the correlation energy can be recovered at bond lengths for which Clifford-only CAFQA accuracy is relatively limited, while remaining classically simulable.
bayesian optimization↗