Bayesian Search of Massive Scalar Fields from LIGO-Virgo-KAGRA Binaries
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Yiqi Xie↗
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BATSE gamma-ray burst line search. 2: Bayesian consistency methodology
We describe a Bayesian methodology to evaluate the consistency between the reported Ginga and Burst and Transient Source Experiment (BATSE) detections of absorption features in gamma-ray burst spectra. Currently no features have been detected by BATSE, but this methodology will still be applicable if and when such features are discovered. The Bayesian methodology permits the comparison of hypotheses regarding the two detectors' observations and makes explicit the subjective aspects of our analysis (e.g., the quantification of our confidence in detector performance). We also present non-Bayesian consistency statistics. Based on preliminary calculations of line detectability, we find that both the Bayesian and non-Bayesian techniques show that the BATSE and Ginga observations are consistent given our understanding of these detectors.
Band, D. L.↗
Remote Sensing-Driven Hydrodynamic Modeling in Data-Scarce Regions: Integrating ICESat-2, Sentinel-2, SWOT and Re-analysis Models for Coastal Monitoring
Hydrodynamic models in coastal and estuarine systems are typically constrained by sparse bathymetry, boundary, and validation data, especially in regions where field campaigns are costly or impractical. Here we develop and test a fully satellite-driven framework for hydrodynamic modeling in South Africa’s Langebaan Lagoon without using any local in situ measurements. Bathymetry is derived by training multispectral Sentinel-2 reflectance against ICESat-2 ATL24 photon-derived depths using an XGBoost model optimized with Bayesian search. The final satellite-derived bathymetry reproduces independent ATL24 points with RMSE = 0.45 m and R 2 = 0.97. This bathymetry was used in a depth-averaged Delft3D Flexible Mesh model driven at the open boundary by TPXO tidal harmonics and by ERA5 winds. We validate modeled water surface elevation against 16 SWOT low-rate (250 m, unsmoothed) passes in 2023. SWOT–model comparisons yield an overall RMSE of 0.11 m and R 2 = 0.61, with typical point differences <0.10 m (∼7% of the 1.5 m tidal range), and showed consistent spatial gradients in water level from the offshore boundary, through Saldanha Bay, and into the lagoon. At the offshore boundary, TPXO and SWOT sea surface heights agree closely (R 2 = 0.86). A simple phase adjustment of ∼26,min between TPXO and SWOT lowers the RMSE from 0.18,m to 0.11,m, showing that phase offset accounts for some of the discrepancy, with additional errors likely linked to non-tidal signals. Our results demonstrate that combining passive optical, photon-counting LiDAR, radar interferometry, and global tidal/atmospheric models enables robust, transferrable hydrodynamic modeling in data-scarce coastal systems, offering a cost-effective pathway for monitoring.
ICESat-2↗
Initialization and Restart in Stochastic Local Search: Computing a Most Probable Explanation in Bayesian Networks
For hard computational problems, stochastic local search has proven to be a competitive approach to finding optimal or approximately optimal problem solutions. Two key research questions for stochastic local search algorithms are: Which algorithms are effective for initialization? When should the search process be restarted? In the present work we investigate these research questions in the context of approximate computation of most probable explanations (MPEs) in Bayesian networks (BNs). We introduce a novel approach, based on the Viterbi algorithm, to explanation initialization in BNs. While the Viterbi algorithm works on sequences and trees, our approach works on BNs with arbitrary topologies. We also give a novel formalization of stochastic local search, with focus on initialization and restart, using probability theory and mixture models. Experimentally, we apply our methods to the problem of MPE computation, using a stochastic local search algorithm known as Stochastic Greedy Search. By carefully optimizing both initialization and restart, we reduce the MPE search time for application BNs by several orders of magnitude compared to using uniform at random initialization without restart. On several BNs from applications, the performance of Stochastic Greedy Search is competitive with clique tree clustering, a state-of-the-art exact algorithm used for MPE computation in BNs.
Mengshoel, Ole J.↗
Portfolios in Stochastic Local Search: Efficiently Computing Most Probable Explanations in Bayesian Networks
Portfolio methods support the combination of different algorithms and heuristics, including stochastic local search (SLS) heuristics, and have been identified as a promising approach to solve computationally hard problems. While successful in experiments, theoretical foundations and analytical results for portfolio-based SLS heuristics are less developed. This article aims to improve the understanding of the role of portfolios of heuristics in SLS. We emphasize the problem of computing most probable explanations (MPEs) in Bayesian networks (BNs). Algorithmically, we discuss a portfolio-based SLS algorithm for MPE computation, Stochastic Greedy Search (SGS). SGS supports the integration of different initialization operators (or initialization heuristics) and different search operators (greedy and noisy heuristics), thereby enabling new analytical and experimental results. Analytically, we introduce a novel Markov chain model tailored to portfolio-based SLS algorithms including SGS, thereby enabling us to analytically form expected hitting time results that explain empirical run time results. For a specific BN, we show the benefit of using a homogenous initialization portfolio. To further illustrate the portfolio approach, we consider novel additive search heuristics for handling determinism in the form of zero entries in conditional probability tables in BNs. Our additive approach adds rather than multiplies probabilities when computing the utility of an explanation. We motivate the additive measure by studying the dramatic impact of zero entries in conditional probability tables on the number of zero-probability explanations, which again complicates the search process. We consider the relationship between MAXSAT and MPE, and show that additive utility (or gain) is a generalization, to the probabilistic setting, of MAXSAT utility (or gain) used in the celebrated GSAT and WalkSAT algorithms and their descendants. Utilizing our Markov chain framework, we show that expected hitting time is a rational function - i.e. a ratio of two polynomials - of the probability of applying an additive search operator. Experimentally, we report on synthetically generated BNs as well as BNs from applications, and compare SGSs performance to that of Hugin, which performs BN inference by compilation to and propagation in clique trees. On synthetic networks, SGS speeds up computation by approximately two orders of magnitude compared to Hugin. In application networks, our approach is highly competitive in Bayesian networks with a high degree of determinism. In addition to showing that stochastic local search can be competitive with clique tree clustering, our empirical results provide an improved understanding of the circumstances under which portfolio-based SLS outperforms clique tree clustering and vice versa.
Mengshoel, Ole J.↗
Bayesian Genetic Programming Based Symbolic Regression with Preferential Search
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Karl Garbrecht↗
Exoplanet Biosignatures: Future Directions
We introduce a Bayesian method for guiding future directions for detection of life on exoplanets. We describe empirical and theoretical work necessary to place constraints on the relevant likelihoods, including those emerging from better understanding stellar environment, planetary climate and geophysics, geochemical cycling, the universalities of physics and chemistry, the contingencies of evolutionary history, the properties of life as an emergent complex system, and the mechanisms driving the emergence of life. We provide examples for how the Bayesian formalism could guide future search strategies, including determining observations to prioritize or deciding between targeted searches or larger lower resolution surveys to generate ensemble statistics and address how a Bayesian methodology could constrain the prior probability of life with or without a positive detection.
Bayesian analysis↗
Perceptual learning through optimization of attentional weighting: human versus optimal Bayesian learner
Human performance in visual detection, discrimination, identification, and search tasks typically improves with practice. Psychophysical studies suggest that perceptual learning is mediated by an enhancement in the coding of the signal, and physiological studies suggest that it might be related to the plasticity in the weighting or selection of sensory units coding task relevant information (learning through attention optimization). We propose an experimental paradigm (optimal perceptual learning paradigm) to systematically study the dynamics of perceptual learning in humans by allowing comparisons to that of an optimal Bayesian algorithm and a number of suboptimal learning models. We measured improvement in human localization (eight-alternative forced-choice with feedback) performance of a target randomly sampled from four elongated Gaussian targets with different orientations and polarities and kept as a target for a block of four trials. The results suggest that the human perceptual learning can occur within a lapse of four trials (<1 min) but that human learning is slower and incomplete with respect to the optimal algorithm (23.3% reduction in human efficiency from the 1st-to-4th learning trials). The greatest improvement in human performance, occurring from the 1st-to-2nd learning trial, was also present in the optimal observer, and, thus reflects a property inherent to the visual task and not a property particular to the human perceptual learning mechanism. One notable source of human inefficiency is that, unlike the ideal observer, human learning relies more heavily on previous decisions than on the provided feedback, resulting in no human learning on trials following a previous incorrect localization decision. Finally, the proposed theory and paradigm provide a flexible framework for future studies to evaluate the optimality of human learning of other visual cues and/or sensory modalities.
Non-NASA Center↗
Fermi-GBM GRBs with Characteristics Similar to GRB 170817A
We present a search for gamma-ray bursts in the Fermi-GBM (Gamma Burst Monitor) 10-year catalog that show similar characteristics to GRB170817A, the first electromagnetic counterpart to a GRB (Gamma-Ray Burst) identified as a binary neutron star (BNS) merger via gravitational wave observations. Our search is focused on a nonthermal pulse, followed by a thermal component,as observed for GRB 170817A. We employ search methods based on the measured catalog parameters and Bayesian Block analysis. Our multipronged approach, which includes examination of the localization and spectral properties of the thermal component, yields a total of 13 candidates, including GRB170817A and the previously reported similar burst, GRB 150101B. The similarity of the candidates is likely caused by the same processes that shaped the gamma-ray signal of GRB170817A, thus providing evidence of a nearby sample of short GRBs resulting from BNS merger events. Some of the newly identified counterparts were observed by other space telescopes and ground observatories, but none of them have a measured redshift. We present an analysis of this subsample, and we discuss two models. From uncovering 13 candidates during a time period of 10 years we predict that Fermi-GBM will trigger on-board on about one burst similar to GRB170817A per year.
von Kienlin, A.↗
Parameter and Structure Inference for Nonlinear Dynamical Systems
A great many systems can be modeled in the non-linear dynamical systems framework, as x = f(x) + xi(t), where f() is the potential function for the system, and xi is the excitation noise. Modeling the potential using a set of basis functions, we derive the posterior for the basis coefficients. A more challenging problem is to determine the set of basis functions that are required to model a particular system. We show that using the Bayesian Information Criteria (BIC) to rank models, and the beam search technique, that we can accurately determine the structure of simple non-linear dynamical system models, and the structure of the coupling between non-linear dynamical systems where the individual systems are known. This last case has important ecological applications.
Morris, Robin D.↗
Decision-Tree Program
IND computer program introduces Bayesian and Markov/maximum-likelihood (MML) methods and more-sophisticated methods of searching in growing trees. Produces more-accurate class-probability estimates important in applications like diagnosis. Provides range of features and styles with convenience for casual user, fine-tuning for advanced user or for those interested in research. Consists of four basic kinds of routines: data-manipulation, tree-generation, tree-testing, and tree-display. Written in C language.
Buntine, Wray↗
Thermoplastic Matrix Composite Design for Cryotanks Using Multiscale Modeling and Bayesian Optimization
Designing lightweight, robust cryogenic storage tanks is critical for future launch vehicles, in-space propellant storage, and hydrogen powered aircraft. This work presents a multiscale modeling and Bayesian optimization framework for the design of thermoplastic matrix composite cryotanks. Molecular dynamics simulations are first used to determine temperature-dependent constituent properties for candidate thermoplastic matrices, which are homogenized to the lamina scale using NASA’s Multiscale Analysis Tool (NASMAT). These lamina properties, in combination with laminate family generation rules, are evaluated in HyperX structural optimization software to identify stacking sequences that meet all cryogenic load requirements. A Bayesian optimization framework is applied, with HyperX in the loop (via the HyperX API) to efficiently search across material and laminate design variables, yielding an optimized cryotank configuration with significant reductions in design cycle time compared to exhaustive search approaches.
thermoplastics↗
Experiments with a decision-theoretic scheduler
This paper describes DTS, a decision-theoretic scheduler designed to employ state-of-the-art probabilistic inference technology to speed the search for efficient solutions to constraint-satisfaction problems. Our approach involves assessing the performance of heuristic control strategies that are normally hard-coded into scheduling systems, and using probabilistic inference to aggregate this information in light of features of a given problem. BPS, the Bayesian Problem-Solver, introduced a similar approach to solving single-agent and adversarial graph search problems, yielding orders-of-magnitude improvement over traditional techniques. Initial efforts suggest that similar improvements will be realizable when applied to typical constraint-satisfaction scheduling problems.
Hansson, Othar↗
Decision-theoretic control of EUVE telescope scheduling
This paper describes a decision theoretic scheduler (DTS) designed to employ state-of-the-art probabilistic inference technology to speed the search for efficient solutions to constraint-satisfaction problems. Our approach involves assessing the performance of heuristic control strategies that are normally hard-coded into scheduling systems and using probabilistic inference to aggregate this information in light of the features of a given problem. The Bayesian Problem-Solver (BPS) introduced a similar approach to solving single agent and adversarial graph search patterns yielding orders-of-magnitude improvement over traditional techniques. Initial efforts suggest that similar improvements will be realizable when applied to typical constraint-satisfaction scheduling problems.
Hansson, Othar↗
Separating Gravitational Wave Signals from Instrument Artifacts
Central to the gravitational wave detection problem is the challenge of separating features in the data produced by astrophysical sources from features produced by the detector. Matched filtering provides an optimal solution for Gaussian noise, but in practice, transient noise excursions or "glitches" complicate the analysis. Detector diagnostics and coincidence tests can be used to veto many glitches which may otherwise be misinterpreted as gravitational wave signals. The glitches that remain can lead to long tails in the matched filter search statistics and drive up the detection threshold. Here we describe a Bayesian approach that incorporates a more realistic model for the instrument noise allowing for fluctuating noise levels that vary independently across frequency bands, and deterministic "glitch fitting" using wavelets as "glitch templates", the number of which is determined by a trans-dimensional Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithm. We demonstrate the method's effectiveness on simulated data containing low amplitude gravitational wave signals from inspiraling binary black hole systems, and simulated non-stationary and non-Gaussian noise comprised of a Gaussian component with the standard LIGO/Virgo spectrum, and injected glitches of various amplitude, prevalence, and variety. Glitch fitting allows us to detect significantly weaker signals than standard techniques.
Littenberg, Tyson B.↗
Development and Execution of the RUNSAFE Runway Safety Bayesian Belief Network Model
One focus area of the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) is to improve aviation safety. Runway safety is one such thrust of investigation and research. The two primary components of this runway safety research are in runway incursion (RI) and runway excursion (RE) events. These are adverse ground-based aviation incidents that endanger crew, passengers, aircraft and perhaps other nearby people or property. A runway incursion is the incorrect presence of an aircraft, vehicle or person on the protected area of a surface designated for the landing and take-off of aircraft; one class of RI events simultaneously involves two aircraft, such as one aircraft incorrectly landing on a runway while another aircraft is taking off from the same runway. A runway excursion is an incident involving only a single aircraft defined as a veer-off or overrun off the runway surface. Within the scope of this effort at NASA Langley Research Center (LaRC), generic RI, RE and combined (RI plus RE, or RUNSAFE) event models have each been developed and implemented as a Bayesian Belief Network (BBN). Descriptions of runway safety issues from the literature searches have been used to develop the BBN models. Numerous considerations surrounding the process of developing the event models have been documented in this report. The event models were then thoroughly reviewed by a Subject Matter Expert (SME) panel through multiple knowledge elicitation sessions. Numerous improvements to the model structure (definitions, node names, node states and the connecting link topology) were made by the SME panel. Sample executions of the final RUNSAFE model have been presented herein for baseline and worst-case scenarios. Finally, a parameter sensitivity analysis for a given scenario was performed to show the risk drivers. The NASA and LaRC research in runway safety event modeling through the use of BBN technology is important for several reasons. These include: 1) providing a means to clearly understand the cause and effect patterns leading to safety issues, incidents and accidents, 2) enabling the prioritization of specialty areas needing more attention to improve aviation safety, and 3) enabling the identification of gaps within NASA's Aviation Safety funding portfolio
Green, Lawrence L.↗
Development of a Bayesian Belief Network Runway Incursion and Excursion Model
In a previous work, a statistical analysis of runway incursion (RI) event data was conducted to ascertain the relevance of this data to the top ten Technical Challenges (TC) of the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) Aviation Safety Program (AvSP). The study revealed connections to several of the AvSP top ten TC and identified numerous primary causes and contributing factors of RI events. The statistical analysis served as the basis for developing a system-level Bayesian Belief Network (BBN) model for RI events, also previously reported. Through literature searches and data analysis, this RI event network has now been extended to also model runway excursion (RE) events. These RI and RE event networks have been further modified and vetted by a Subject Matter Expert (SME) panel. The combined system-level BBN model will allow NASA to generically model the causes of RI and RE events and to assess the effectiveness of technology products being developed under NASA funding. These products are intended to reduce the frequency of runway safety incidents/accidents, and to improve runway safety in general. The development and structure of the BBN for both RI and RE events are documented in this paper.
Green, Lawrence L.↗
Using Bayesian Networks for Candidate Generation in Consistency-based Diagnosis
Consistency-based diagnosis relies heavily on the assumption that discrepancies between model predictions and sensor observations can be detected accurately. When sources of uncertainty like sensor noise and model abstraction exist robust schemes have to be designed to make a binary decision on whether predictions are consistent with observations. This risks the occurrence of false alarms and missed alarms when an erroneous decision is made. Moreover when multiple sensors (with differing sensing properties) are available the degree of match between predictions and observations can be used to guide the search for fault candidates. In this paper we propose a novel approach to handle this problem using Bayesian networks. In the consistency- based diagnosis formulation, automatically generated Bayesian networks are used to encode a probabilistic measure of fit between predictions and observations. A Bayesian network inference algorithm is used to compute most probable fault candidates.
Narasimhan, Sriram↗