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Results for “Bayesian statistical modeling”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 19 records
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS2020

Bayesian Statistical Models for Community Annoyance Survey Data

This paper demonstrates the use of two Bayesian statistical models to analyze single-event sonic boom exposure and human annoyance data from community response surveys. Each model is fit to data from a NASA pilot study.Unlike many community noise surveys, this study used a panel sample to collect multiple observations per participant instead of a single observation. Thus, a multilevel (also known as hierarchical or mixed-effects) model is used to account for the within-subject correlation in the panel sample data. This paper describes a multilevel logistic regression model and a multilevel ordinal regression model. The paper also proposes a method for calculating a summary dose-response curve from the multilevel models that represents the population. The two models’ summary dose-response curves are visually similar. However, their estimates differ when calculating the noise dose at a fixed percent highly annoyed.

Musical instruments↗
DOE OSTI2024

Statistical modelling and Bayesian inversion for a Compton imaging system: application to radioactive source localization

Abstract This paper presents a statistical forward model for a Compton imaging system, called Compton imager. This system, under development at the University of Illinois Urbana Champaign, is a variant of Compton cameras with a single type of sensors which can simultaneously act as scatterers and absorbers. This imager is convenient for imaging situations requiring a wide field of view. The proposed statistical forward model is then used to solve the inverse problem of estimating the location and energy of point-like sources from observed data. This inverse problem is formulated and solved in a Bayesian framework by using a Metropolis within Gibbs algorithm for the estimation of the location, and an expectation-maximization algorithm for the estimation of the energy. This approach leads to more accurate estimation when compared with the deterministic standard back-projection approach, with the additional benefit of uncertainty quantification in the low photon imaging setting.

Tarpau, Cécilia (ORCID:0000000286539490)↗
DOE OSTI2022

Differentiable Preisach Modeling for Characterization and Optimization of Particle Accelerator Systems with Hysteresis

Future improvements in particle accelerator performance are predicated on increasingly accurate online modeling of accelerators. Hysteresis effects in magnetic, mechanical, and material components of accelerators are often neglected in online accelerator models used to inform control algorithms, even though reproducibility errors from systems exhibiting hysteresis are not negligible in high precision accelerators. Here, we combine the classical Preisach model of hysteresis with machine learning techniques to efficiently create nonparametric, high-fidelity models of arbitrary systems exhibiting hysteresis. We experimentally demonstrate how these methods can be used in situ, where a hysteresis model of an accelerator magnet is combined with a Bayesian statistical model of the beam response, allowing characterization of magnetic hysteresis solely from beam-based measurements. Finally, we explore how using these joint hysteresis-Bayesian statistical models allows us to overcome optimization performance limitations that arise when hysteresis effects are ignored.

43 PARTICLE ACCELERATORS↗
DOE OSTI2012

Crossing statistic: Bayesian interpretation, model selection and resolving dark energy parametrization problem

By introducing Crossing functions and hyper-parameters I show that the Bayesian interpretation of the Crossing Statistics [1] can be used trivially for the purpose of model selection among cosmological models. In this approach to falsify a cosmological model there is no need to compare it with other models or assume any particular form of parametrization for the cosmological quantities like luminosity distance, Hubble parameter or equation of state of dark energy. Instead, hyper-parameters of Crossing functions perform as discriminators between correct and wrong models. Using this approach one can falsify any assumed cosmological model without putting priors on the underlying actual model of the universe and its parameters, hence the issue of dark energy parametrization is resolved. It will be also shown that the sensitivity of the method to the intrinsic dispersion of the data is small that is another important characteristic of the method in testing cosmological models dealing with data with high uncertainties.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
NASA NTRS2015

Online Dectection and Modeling of Safety Boundaries for Aerospace Application Using Bayesian Statistics

The behavior of complex aerospace systems is governed by numerous parameters. For safety analysis it is important to understand how the system behaves with respect to these parameter values. In particular, understanding the boundaries between safe and unsafe regions is of major importance. In this paper, we describe a hierarchical Bayesian statistical modeling approach for the online detection and characterization of such boundaries. Our method for classification with active learning uses a particle filter-based model and a boundary-aware metric for best performance. From a library of candidate shapes incorporated with domain expert knowledge, the location and parameters of the boundaries are estimated using advanced Bayesian modeling techniques. The results of our boundary analysis are then provided in a form understandable by the domain expert. We illustrate our approach using a simulation model of a NASA neuro-adaptive flight control system, as well as a system for the detection of separation violations in the terminal airspace.

Statistics↗
DOE OSTI2017

Modeling Soot Oxidation and Gasification with Bayesian Statistics

This paper presents a statistical method for model calibration using data collected from literature. The method is used to calibrate parameters for global models of soot consumption in combustion systems. This consumption is broken into two different submodels: first for oxidation where soot particles are attacked by certain oxidizing agents; second for gasification where soot particles are attacked by H 2 O or CO 2 molecules. Rate data were collected from 19 studies in the literature and evaluated using Bayesian statistics to calibrate the model parameters. Bayesian statistics are valued in their ability to quantify uncertainty in modeling. The calibrated consumption model with quantified uncertainty is presented here along with a discussion of associated implications. The oxidation results are found to be consistent with previous studies. Significant variation is found in the CO 2 gasification rates.

01 COAL, LIGNITE, AND PEAT↗
DOE OSTI2015

Adaptive Bayesian Inference for Prediction

Performing rigorous predictive simulation necessitates that all available data be incorporated into the modeling process in order to accurately quantify uncertainties in predictions of the model. Statistical Bayesian inference is the most commonly used approach for incorporating data into uncertainty estimates. Statistical Bayesian inference uses data and an assumed error model to inform posterior distributions of model input variables and model discrepancies. An explicit characterization of the posterior distribution is not formed, but rather methods such as Markov chain Monte-Carlo (MCMC) are used to draw samples from the posterior. These samples are then used to evaluate statistics, such as integrals, of predicted quantities of interest (QoI). Recently the authors have developed an alternative reformulation of Bayesian inference based upon a measure-theoretic inversion technique. Unlike traditional statistical Bayesian inference, this reformulation allows us to directly interrogate the posterior distribution and, consequently, to generate samples from the posterior without MCMC. In this work we use forward propagation uncertainty quantification techniques to reduce the cost of approximating the posterior distribution. Specifically we investigate goal-oriented adaptive sparse grid approximation methods. These adaptive methods concentrate high-fidelity model evaluations in regions of the parameter space that both significantly contribute to the uncertainty in specified QoI and are informed by the available data. Numerical results are presented to compare our approach with the standard statistical Bayesian approach and to demonstrate the effectiveness of the goal-oriented adaptivity.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2020

Fast strength model characterization using Bayesian statistics

A variety of flow stress models exist with new models constantly being developed. These models aim to approximate the strength of materials in a variety of regimes from quasistatic loading through shock scenarios. All models contain an array of parameters which need to be tuned to the material under study. Some models perform well under limited conditions, requiring adjustment of the parameters when venturing outside of those predefined ranges. Other models perform well over a wide range of conditions with a set of parameters, but may be outperformed by other models optimized on a tighter range of conditions. Recent research by Los Alamos demonstrated the ability to optimize the Johnson Cook (JC) model using a set of 3 plate-impact experiments on Aluminum. They utilized Bayesian statistics and emulation to determine optimal parameters for the model with a quantification of parameter uncertainty. We present an extension of this capability to incorporate velocimetry from plate-impact tests, stress-strain data from split Hopkinson pressure bar and quasistatic compression tests, plus profiles from Taylor cylinders in a unified fashion. Statistically robust comparisons of the performance and uncertainty of different realizations of the JC flow stress model were carried out based on calibration to several possible combinations of these three different experiment types.

75 CONDENSED MATTER PHYSICS, SUPERCONDUCTIVITY AND↗
DOE OSTI2022

Estimation of pollen productivity and dispersal: How pollen assemblages in small lakes represent vegetation

Abstract Quantitative understanding of vegetation dynamics over timespans beyond a century remains limited. In this regard, the pollen‐based reconstruction of past vegetation enables unique research opportunities by quantifying changes in plant community compositions during hundreds to thousands of years. Critically, the methodological basis for most reconstruction approaches rests upon estimates of pollen productivity and dispersal. Previous studies, however, have reached contrasting conclusions concerning these estimates, which may be perceived to challenge the applicability and reliability of pollen‐based reconstruction. Here we show that conflicting estimates of pollen production and dispersal are, at least in part, artifacts of fixed assumptions of pollen dispersal and insufficient spatial resolution of vegetation data surrounding the pollen‐collecting lake. We implemented a Bayesian statistical model that related pollen assemblages in surface sediments of 33 small lakes (<2 ha) in the northeastern United States, with surrounding vegetation ranging from 10 1 to >10 5 m from the lake margin. Our analysis revealed three key insights. First, pollen productivity is largely conserved within taxa and across forest types. Second, when local (within a 1‐km radius) vegetation abundances are not considered, pollen‐source areas may be overestimated for some common taxa (Cupressaceae, Pinus , Quercus , and Tsuga ). Third, pollen dispersal mechanisms may differ between local and regional scales; this is missed by pollen‐dispersal models used in previous studies. These findings highlight the complex interactions between vegetation heterogeneity on the landscape and pollen dispersal. We suggest that, when estimating pollen productivity and dispersal, both detailed local and extended regional vegetation must be taken into account. Also, both deductive (mechanistic models) and inductive (statistical models) approaches are needed to better understand the emergent properties of pollen dispersal in heterogeneous landscapes.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Hot Droughts and Forest Tree Dynamics in the Amazon - Statistical Models, Scripts, Data, and Outputs

This package contains data, outputs, equations, and R scripts for analyses for manuscript entitled "Hot droughts in the Amazon: A window to a future hypertropical climate" by J. Chambers et al., in particular it contains statistical models and analyses for the INPA BIONTE tree mortality study. The Models folder contains details for all statistical models in PDF files. The Scripts folder contains the R scripts for Bayesian Hierarchical Models (two text files) and SEMs (one text file) are separate and reasonably annotated. All data associated with these scripts are in the data folder. The Data folder contains two of the three CSV files used for the analyses and are called by the R scripts. Two of them are part of published datasets (`BIONTE_mortality-rates.csv` from Lima et al. 2024, DOI:10.15486/ngt/1898910 and `SPEI.csv` from Pastorello et al. 2023 DOI:10.15486/ngt/1958257) and also provided in this package for convenience (please see the corresponding datasets for usage and citation terms). The third dataset (`BIONTE_gapfilled_wd.csv`) contains sensitive information and can be obtained by contacting the manuscript lead author. The Outputs folder contains the two output files that provide extra information about the analyses. The file `figuresFeb2025d.pdf` contains all the figures from the manuscript - captions are in the manuscript. The file `ChambersMS.pdf` contains primary results from Bayesian statistical models, regression analyses, and validation steps applied to the tree mortality data from the INPA experiments. The document includes visual summaries, model diagnostics, and leave-one-out (LOO) validation results. A breakdown of file contents can be found in the README file that is part of this package.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Developing and applying quantifiable metrics for diagnostic and experiment design on Z

This project applies methods in Bayesian inference and modern statistical methods to quantify the value of new experimental data, in the form of new or modified diagnostic configurations and/or experiment designs. We demonstrate experiment design methods that can be used to identify the highest priority diagnostic improvements or experimental data to obtain in order to reduce uncertainties on critical inferred experimental quantities and select the best course of action to distinguish between competing physical models. Bayesian statistics and information theory provide the foundation for developing the necessary metrics, using two high impact experimental platforms on Z as exemplars to develop and illustrate the technique. We emphasize that the general methodology is extensible to new diagnostics (provided synthetic models are available), as well as additional platforms. We also discuss initial scoping of additional applications that began development in the last year of this LDRD.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2015

UNSUPERVISED TRANSIENT LIGHT CURVE ANALYSIS VIA HIERARCHICAL BAYESIAN INFERENCE

Historically, light curve studies of supernovae (SNe) and other transient classes have focused on individual objects with copious and high signal-to-noise observations. In the nascent era of wide field transient searches, objects with detailed observations are decreasing as a fraction of the overall known SN population, and this strategy sacrifices the majority of the information contained in the data about the underlying population of transients. A population level modeling approach, simultaneously fitting all available observations of objects in a transient sub-class of interest, fully mines the data to infer the properties of the population and avoids certain systematic biases. We present a novel hierarchical Bayesian statistical model for population level modeling of transient light curves, and discuss its implementation using an efficient Hamiltonian Monte Carlo technique. As a test case, we apply this model to the Type IIP SN sample from the Pan-STARRS1 Medium Deep Survey, consisting of 18,837 photometric observations of 76 SNe, corresponding to a joint posterior distribution with 9176 parameters under our model. Our hierarchical model fits provide improved constraints on light curve parameters relevant to the physical properties of their progenitor stars relative to modeling individual light curves alone. Moreover, we directly evaluate the probability for occurrence rates of unseen light curve characteristics from the model hyperparameters, addressing observational biases in survey methodology. We view this modeling framework as an unsupervised machine learning technique with the ability to maximize scientific returns from data to be collected by future wide field transient searches like LSST.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2022

How Bayesian methods can improve R -matrix analyses of data: The example of the d t reaction

The 3 H(d, n) 4 He reaction is of significant interest in nuclear astrophysics and nuclear applications. It is an important, early step in big-bang nucleosynthesis and a key process in nuclear fusion reactors. We use one- and two-level R-matrix approximations to analyze data on the cross section for this reaction at center-of-mass energies below 215 keV. We critically examine the data sets using a Bayesian statistical model that allows for both common-mode and additional point-to-point un- certainties. We use Markov Chain Monte Carlo sampling to evaluate this R-matrix-plus-statistical model and find two-level R-matrix results that are stable with respect to variations in the channel radii. The S factor at 40 keV evaluates to 25.36(19) MeV b (68% credibility interval). We discuss our Bayesian analysis in detail and provide guidance for future applications of Bayesian methods to R-matrix analyses. We also discuss possible paths to further reduction of the S-factor uncertainty.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗
NASA NTRS2014

The New NASA Orbital Debris Engineering Model ORDEM 3.0

The NASA Orbital Debris Program Office (ODPO) has released its latest Orbital Debris Engineering Model, ORDEM 3.0. It supersedes ORDEM 2.0. This newer model encompasses the Earth satellite and debris flux environment from altitudes of low Earth orbit (LEO) through geosynchronous orbit (GEO). Debris sizes of 10 microns through 1 m in non-GEO and 10 cm through 1 m in GEO are modeled. The inclusive years are 2010 through 2035. The ORDEM model series has always been data driven. ORDEM 3.0 has the benefit of many more hours from existing data sources and from new sources that weren't available to past versions. Returned surfaces, ground tests, and remote sensors all contribute data. The returned surface and ground test data reveal material characteristics of small particles. Densities of fragmentation debris particles smaller than 10 cm are grouped in ORDEM 3.0 in terms of high-, medium-, and lowdensities, along with RORSAT sodium-potassium droplets. Supporting models have advanced significantly. The LEO-to-GEO ENvironment Debris model (LEGEND) includes an historical and a future projection component with yearly populations that include launched and maneuvered intacts, mission related debris (MRD), and explosion and collision fragments. LEGEND propagates objects with ephemerides and physical characteristics down to 1 mm in size. The full LEGEND yearly population acts as an a priori condition for a Bayesian statistical model. Specific, well defined populations are added like the Radar Ocean Reconnaissance Satellite (RORSAT) sodium-potassium (NaK) droplets, recent major accidental and deliberate collision fragments, and known anomalous debris event fragments. For microdebris of sizes 10 microns to 1 mm the ODPO uses an in-house Degradation/Ejecta model in which a MLE technique is used with returned surface data to estimate populations. This paper elaborates on the upgrades of this model over previous versions highlighting the material density splits and consequences of that to the penetration risk to spacecraft.

Krisko, P. H.↗
NASA NTRS2014

The New NASA Orbital Debris Engineering Model ORDEM 3.0

The NASA Orbital Debris Program Office (ODPO) has released its latest Orbital Debris Engineering Model, ORDEM 3.0. It supersedes ORDEM 2000, now referred to as ORDEM 2.0. This newer model encompasses the Earth satellite and debris flux environment from altitudes of low Earth orbit (LEO) through geosynchronous orbit (GEO). Debris sizes of 10 micron through larger than 1 m in non-GEO and 10 cm through larger than 1 m in GEO are available. The inclusive years are 2010 through 2035. The ORDEM model series has always been data driven. ORDEM 3.0 has the benefit of many more hours of data from existing sources and from new sources than past ORDEM versions. The object data range in size from 10 μm to larger than 1 m, and include in situ and remote measurements. The in situ data reveals material characteristics of small particles. Mass densities are grouped in ORDEM 3.0 in terms of 'high-density', represented by 7.9 g/cc, 'medium-density' represented by 2.8 g/cc and 'low-density' represented by 1.4 g/cc. Supporting models have also advanced significantly. The LEO-to-GEO ENvironment Debris model (LEGEND) includes an historical and a future projection component with yearly populations that include launched and maneuvered intact spacecraft and rocket bodies, mission related debris, and explosion and collision event fragments. LEGEND propagates objects with ephemerides and physical characteristics down to 1 mm in size. The full LEGEND yearly population acts as an a priori condition for a Bayesian statistical model. Specific populations are added from sodium potassium droplet releases, recent major accidental and deliberate collisions, and known anomalous debris events. This paper elaborates on the upgrades of this model over previous versions. Sample validation results with remote and in situ measurements are shown, and the consequences of including material density are discussed as it relates to heightened risks to crewed and robotic spacecraft

Krisko, P. H.↗
DOE OSTI2015

Sparing Healthy Tissue and Increasing Tumor Dose Using Bayesian Modeling of Geometric Uncertainties for Planning Target Volume Personalization

Objective: To develop a mathematical tool that can update a patient's planning target volume (PTV) partway through a course of radiation therapy to more precisely target the tumor for the remainder of treatment and reduce dose to surrounding healthy tissue. Methods and Materials: Daily on-board imaging was used to collect large datasets of displacements for patients undergoing external beam radiation therapy for solid tumors. Bayesian statistical modeling of these geometric uncertainties was used to optimally trade off between displacement data collected from previously treated patients and the progressively accumulating data from a patient currently partway through treatment, to optimally predict future displacements for that patient. These predictions were used to update the PTV position and margin width for the remainder of treatment, such that the clinical target volume (CTV) was more precisely targeted. Results: Software simulation of dose to CTV and normal tissue for 2 real prostate displacement datasets consisting of 146 and 290 patients treated with a minimum of 30 fractions each showed that re-evaluating the PTV position and margin width after 8 treatment fractions reduced healthy tissue dose by 19% and 17%, respectively, while maintaining CTV dose. Conclusion: Incorporating patient-specific displacement patterns from early in a course of treatment allows PTV adaptation for the remainder of treatment. This substantially reduces the dose to healthy tissues and thus can reduce radiation therapy–induced toxicities, improving patient outcomes.

62 RADIOLOGY AND NUCLEAR MEDICINE↗