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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2023

Predicting High Energy Arcing Fault Zones of Influence for Aluminum Using an Arc Flash Modeling Approach: Evaluation of a model bias, uncertainty, parameter sensitivity and zone of influence estimation

This report documents the development of an arc flash hazard model to calculate the incident energy and zone of influence from high energy arcing faults involving aluminum. The NRC has identified the potential for (HEAFs) involving aluminum to increase the damage zone beyond what is currently postulated in fire probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) methodologies. To estimate the hazard from HEAFs involving aluminum an arc flash model was developed. Differences between the initial model and nuclear power plant (NPP) fire PRA scenarios were identified. Modification of the initial model established from existing literature and test data was used to minimize these differences. The developed model was evaluated against NRC datasets to understand the model prediction and relative uncertainties. Finally, a range of fire PRA zone of influences (ZOI) were developed based on the developed model, target fragility estimates and update HEAF PRA methodology. The results were developed to support an NRC LIC-504 evaluation in tandem with other modeling efforts. The report documents the effort and provides a reference for any future advancements in arc flash modeling.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗
NASA NTRS1986

An additional source of uncertainty and bias in digital spectral estimates near the Nyquist frequency

An additional source of bias and uncertainty in digital spectral estimates near the Nyquist frequency is discovered which is produced by the fact that the finite width main lobe of the spectral window is periodic with period of 2(omega sub c), equal to 4pi times the Nyquist frequency. For estimates near omega sub c, contributions from frequencies near -(omega sub c) are found to appear even for a sufficiently sampled bandlimited time history. In real-world applications, this source should be significant if the number of data points is small, and it should be of even more importance if the signal is not strictly bandlimited.

Hardin, J. C.↗
DOE OSTI2020

VADER: A Tool for Criticality Safety Validation

The purpose of criticality safety is to prevent any inadvertent criticality from occurring during the handling or storage of fissile material. Calculations are frequently used to demonstrate that a sufficient subcritical margin exists. Validation is a key aspect of the evaluation process, establishing the suitability, accuracy, and associated uncertainty of the computational method and data to be used for the intended application. The validation process is performed by comparing the results of critical experiments with the calculated results from models of the experiments using the computational method to be validated. Laboratory critical experiments are controlled systems that achieve a k eff of approximately 1 in order to investigate the parameters at which such a critical condition is achieved. The validation parameters that are traditionally applied to safety analysis calculations are the bias and the bias uncertainty . The bias is the deviation of the average k eff of the validation suite from unity. The bias uncertainty accounts for the statistical uncertainty in the bias based on the standard deviation, sample size, and distribution of k eff values of the validation suite. The values of bias and bias uncertainty ensure that the systems predicted to be subcritical by the computational method will indeed be subcritical. The bias and bias uncertainty are often combined to determine an upper subcritical limit (USL) or computational margin that can then be applied to safety analysis calculations. Many methods have been developed by different organizations to calculate the bias and bias uncertainty for various types of criticality analyses. Each of these methods typically requires that the validity of various underpinning statistical assumptions be confirmed to demonstrate that the method is appropriate for the analysis of a given validation suite. An example of the validation decision making flow is shown in Fig.1. As shown in Fig. 1, the analyst performing the validation fits a trend line to the data and performs a test to determine if the trend was a statistically better representation of the data than if it were treated as an uncorrelated sample. If the trend line is a better representation of the data, then the analyst uses any one of a number of trending techniques to determine the bias and bias uncertainty. If a trend is not an appropriate representation of the data, then the analyst proceeds to perform a normality assessment for the data. If the normal assumption can be shown to be acceptable, then the analyst calculates the bias and bias uncertainty with the parametric technique. If the assumption of normality cannot be justified, then the nonparametric technique is used. Once the decision flow has been followed and the appropriate technique has been selected, the bias and bias uncertainty is typically combined with an administrative margin to determine a USL below which calculated values of k eff for safety analysis models can be considered subcritical. The calculations used in each decision are often performed with spreadsheets or with small programs available at various sites performing criticality analyses. Expertise in understanding and interpreting the results must be maintained to perform these calculations. This can often be an error-prone process. Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL) is currently developing the Validation and Data Evaluation Resource (VADER) to simplify and automate the criticality safety validation process and to provide a software quality assurance pedigree to the calculational methods used. This paper discusses the use of the Fulcrum user interface with VADER, the anticipated initial capabilities of VADER to perform validation analyses, and the output from the code.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗
NASA NTRS1999

Uncertainty Analysis of Instrument Calibration and Application

Experimental aerodynamic researchers require estimated precision and bias uncertainties of measured physical quantities, typically at 95 percent confidence levels. Uncertainties of final computed aerodynamic parameters are obtained by propagation of individual measurement uncertainties through the defining functional expressions. In this paper, rigorous mathematical techniques are extended to determine precision and bias uncertainties of any instrument-sensor system. Through this analysis, instrument uncertainties determined through calibration are now expressed as functions of the corresponding measurement for linear and nonlinear univariate and multivariate processes. Treatment of correlated measurement precision error is developed. During laboratory calibration, calibration standard uncertainties are assumed to be an order of magnitude less than those of the instrument being calibrated. Often calibration standards do not satisfy this assumption. This paper applies rigorous statistical methods for inclusion of calibration standard uncertainty and covariance due to the order of their application. The effects of mathematical modeling error on calibration bias uncertainty are quantified. The effects of experimental design on uncertainty are analyzed. The importance of replication is emphasized, techniques for estimation of both bias and precision uncertainties using replication are developed. Statistical tests for stationarity of calibration parameters over time are obtained.

Tripp, John S.↗
DOE OSTI2021

Performance Comparison of Circular and Spherical Error Probable Estimators

This report compares the performance of three Circular Error Probable (CEP) estimators: the Grubbs-Patnaik estimator, a new, non-iterative, radial-integration estimator, and a median estimator. It also compares the performance of two Spherical Error Probable (SEP) estimators. The performance of each estimator is assessed in terms of bias, uncertainty, robustness, and computational complexity. Robustness is evaluated with respect to outliers, variations in the underlying statistical distribution characterizing munition impact positions, and impact-position measurement errors. The performance assessments indicate the radial-integration and Grubbs-Patnaik estimators perform nearly identically providing the statistical distribution of impact-position coordinates is jointly normal with zero means. In that case, both estimators outperform the median estimator by about 2% relative to the true CEP in terms of estimator uncertainty. The bias performance of the radial-integration and median estimators is close to zero for jointly normal impacts, however, the Grubbs-Patnaik estimator can be significantly biased for jointly normal impacts with non-zero means. When the statistical distribution characterizing impact positions is known, but not jointly normal, the radial-integration estimator is superior. In this case, the median estimator also outperforms the Grubbs-Patnaik estimator but is not quite as good as the radial-integration estimator. If the statistical distribution characterizing impacts is unknown and not jointly normal, or if distribution parameters are difficult or impractical to estimate, or if test data is corrupted with outliers, then the median estimator dramatically outperforms the other estimators, especially in terms of estimation bias. Unexpectedly, measurement noise did not significantly degrade the performance of any of the estimators, except for cases with signal to noise ratios less than five. Although the Grubbs-Patnaik estimator has remained the gold standard for CEP estimation for over half a century, the performance assessments indicate the new, non-iterative, radial-integration estimator and the median estimator offer significant advantages and, in most practical real-world conditions, are superior estimators. These estimators are also useful for SEP estimation whereas the Grubbs-Patnaik estimator does not extend to three dimensions.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
NASA NTRS1995

Impact of uncertainty on modeling and testing

A thorough understanding of the uncertainties associated with the modeling and testing of the Space Shuttle Main Engine (SSME) Engine will greatly aid decisions concerning hardware performance and future development efforts. This report will describe the determination of the uncertainties in the modeling and testing of the Space Shuttle Main Engine test program at the Technology Test Bed facility at Marshall Space Flight Center. Section 2 will present a summary of the uncertainty analysis methodology used and discuss the specific applications to the TTB SSME test program. Section 3 will discuss the application of the uncertainty analysis to the test program and the results obtained. Section 4 presents the results of the analysis of the SSME modeling effort from an uncertainty analysis point of view. The appendices at the end of the report contain a significant amount of information relative to the analysis, including discussions of venturi flowmeter data reduction and uncertainty propagation, bias uncertainty documentations, technical papers published, the computer code generated to determine the venturi uncertainties, and the venturi data and results used in the analysis.

Coleman, Hugh W.↗
DOE OSTI2023

Redshifting galaxies from DESI to JWST CEERS: Correction of biases and uncertainties in quantifying morphology

Observations of high-redshift galaxies with unprecedented detail have now been rendered possible with the James Webb Space Telescope (JWST). However, accurately quantifying their morphology remains uncertain due to potential biases and uncertainties. To address this issue, we used a sample of 1816 nearby DESI galaxies, with a stellar mass range of 10 9.75 - 11.25 M ⊙ , to compute artificial images of galaxies of the same mass located at 0.75 ≤ z ≤ 3 and observed at rest-frame optical wavelength in the Cosmic Evolution Early Release Science (CEERS) survey. We analyzed the effects of cosmological redshift on the measurements of Petrosian radius (R p ), half-light radius (R 50 ), asymmetry (A), concentration (C), axis ratio (q), and Sérsic index (n). Our results show that R p and R 50 , calculated using non-parametric methods, are slightly overestimated due to PSF smoothing, while R 50 , q, and n obtained through fitting a Sérsic model does not exhibit significant biases. By incorporating a more accurate noise effect removal procedure, we improve the computation of A over existing methods, which often overestimate, underestimate, or lead to significant scatter of noise contributions. Due to PSF asymmetry, there is a minor overestimation of A for intrinsically symmetric galaxies. However, for intrinsically asymmetric galaxies, PSF smoothing dominates and results in an underestimation of A, an effect that becomes more significant with higher intrinsic A or at lower resolutions. Moreover, PSF smoothing also leads to an underestimation of C, which is notably more pronounced in galaxies with higher intrinsic C or at lower resolutions. We developed functions based on resolution level, defined as R p /FWHM, for correcting these biases and the associated statistical uncertainties. Applying these corrections, we measured the bias-corrected morphology for the simulated CEERS images and we find that the derived quantities are in good agreement with their intrinsic values – except for A, which is robust only for angularly large galaxies where R p /FWHM ≥ 5. Our correction functions can be applied to other surveys, offering valuable tools for future studies.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2021

Uniformly Ordered Binary Decision Algorithm for Benchmark Experiment Correlations in Whisper Validation

When performing a validation exercise for determining the upper subcritical limit of a nuclear criticality safety application, an analyst should select and perform a statistical analysis on a population of benchmark experiments that are neutronically similar to the application. The size of this population should be sufficiently large such that the statistical analysis has a high degree of confidence that the bias plus bias uncertainty (calculational margin) has been accurately quantified. A complication arises because many benchmark experiments share common components, leading to correlations in their measured effective multiplication factors. Correlations between benchmark experiments within the population reduces its predictive power. This motivates the need for methods that consider benchmark experiment correlations and ensure adequate statistical significance of results. The Whisper code is a statistical analysis pack- age that incorporates nuclear data sensitivity coefficients from MCNP to assess benchmark experiment similarity and then performs an extreme-value analysis to estimate the bias plus bias uncertainty. The original methodology in Whisper does not consider the effect of benchmark experiment correlations when making this estimation, and this summary proposes the uniformly ordered binary decision algorithm to address this shortcoming. The original methodology in Whisper computes similarity coefficients ck for an application compared to all benchmark experiments in its library and develops weighting factors for a selected population proportional to the ck values. The methodology can be interpreted as statistically emulating a validation exercise for a particular application where the weighting factors may be viewed as the likelihood that an analyst would include a particular benchmark experiment within the population. The effective sample size of the population is the expected or mean number of benchmark experiments in the population. The uniformly ordered binary decision algorithm identifies clusters of correlated benchmark experiments within the population and then computes adjusted weighting factors based on the magnitude of the correlation coefficients within the cluster to compute a reduced effective sample size accounting for the lower information content because of correlations. Benchmark experiments within the cluster are ordered randomly with equal probability and probabilistic decisions are made as to whether a benchmark. experiment within the cluster should treated as redundant with a previous one; if two redundant benchmark experiments are included, then the conservative worst case bias plus bias uncertainty is used and the pair is counted as a single benchmark experiment in the population. Results are provided for HEU solutions in a research version of the Whisper software using benchmark experiment correlations provided by DICE, the Database for the International Criticality Safety Benchmark Evaluation Project (ICSBEP). These show that there can be a significant increase in the bias plus bias uncertainty because the effective sample size is reduced, and therefore the algorithm, needing to meet sample size requirements, expands the benchmark experiment population by accepting less similar benchmark experiments that would have otherwise not been included.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗
NASA NTRS1990

Bias and uncertainty in the absorption emission measurement of atomic sodium density in the SSME exit plane

The measurement of atomic sodium concentration in the TTB 019 firing of April 1990 is significant in that it represents the first measurement of density at the exit plane of the space shuttle main engine. The knowledge of the sodium density, combined with the certainty that the exit plane of the plume is optically thin at the sodium D-line wavelengths, provides essential information for evaluation of diagnostic techniques using sodium atoms, such as resonant Doppler velocimetry for temperature, pressure, and velocity through high resolution fluorescent lineshape analysis. The technique used for the sodium atom line transmission (SALT) measurements is that of resonant absorption emission using a hollow cathode lamp as the reference source. Through the use of two-dimensional kinetic (TDK) predictions of temperature and density for the flight engine case and radiative transfer calculations, this line-of-sight spectrally integrated transmission indicates a sodium atom concentration, i.e., mole fraction, of 0.91e-10. The subject of this paper is the assumptions and measurement uncertainties tied into the calculation. Because of the narrow shape of the source emission, the uncertainties in the absorption profile could introduce considerable bias in the measurement. The following were investigated: (1) the inclusion of hyperfine splitting of the D-lines in the calculation; (2) the use of the flight engine predictions of plume temperature and density versus those for the large throat engine; (3) the assumption of a Gaussian, i.e., Doppler, distribution for the source radiance with a temperature of 400 K; (4) the use of atomic collisional shift and width values for the work by Jongerius; and (5) a Doppler shift for a 7 degree outward velocity vector at the plume edge. Also included in the study was the bias introduced by an uncertainty in the measurement of the D1/D2 line ratio in the source.

Bauman, Leslie E.↗
DOE OSTI2021

An overview of wind-energy-production prediction bias, losses, and uncertainties

Abstract. The financing of a wind farm directly relates to the preconstruction energy yield assessments which estimate the annual energy production for the farm. The accuracy and the precision of the preconstruction energy estimates can dictate the profitability of the wind project. Historically, the wind industry tended to overpredict the annual energy production of wind farms. Experts have been dedicated to eliminating such prediction errors in the past decade, and recently the reported average energy prediction bias is declining. Herein, we present a literature review of the energy yield assessment errors across the global wind energy industry. We identify a long-term trend of reduction in the overprediction bias, whereas the uncertainty associated with the prediction error is prominent. We also summarize the recent advancements of the wind resource assessment process that justify the bias reduction, including improvements in modeling and measurement techniques. Additionally, because the energy losses and uncertainties substantially influence the prediction error, we document and examine the estimated and observed loss and uncertainty values from the literature, according to the proposed framework in the International Electrotechnical Commission 61400-15 wind resource assessment standard. From our findings, we highlight opportunities for the industry to move forward, such as the validation and reduction of prediction uncertainty and the prevention of energy losses caused by wake effect and environmental events. Overall, this study provides a summary of how the wind energy industry has been quantifying and reducing prediction errors, energy losses, and production uncertainties. Finally, for this work to be as reproducible as possible, we include all of the data used in the analysis in appendices to the article.

17 WIND ENERGY↗
NASA NTRS1999

Uncertainty Analysis of Inertial Model Attitude Sensor Calibration and Application with a Recommended New Calibration Method

Statistical tools, previously developed for nonlinear least-squares estimation of multivariate sensor calibration parameters and the associated calibration uncertainty analysis, have been applied to single- and multiple-axis inertial model attitude sensors used in wind tunnel testing to measure angle of attack and roll angle. The analysis provides confidence and prediction intervals of calibrated sensor measurement uncertainty as functions of applied input pitch and roll angles. A comparative performance study of various experimental designs for inertial sensor calibration is presented along with corroborating experimental data. The importance of replicated calibrations over extended time periods has been emphasized; replication provides independent estimates of calibration precision and bias uncertainties, statistical tests for calibration or modeling bias uncertainty, and statistical tests for sensor parameter drift over time. A set of recommendations for a new standardized model attitude sensor calibration method and usage procedures is included. The statistical information provided by these procedures is necessary for the uncertainty analysis of aerospace test results now required by users of industrial wind tunnel test facilities.

Tripp, John S.↗
DOE OSTI2022

Sensitivity/Uncertainty Comparison Study Involving IRSN, LANL, and ORNL Tools to Support Validation

Under a DOE Nuclear Criticality Safety Program (NCSP) task involving Analytical Methods, three Laboratories collaborated in a comparison of results obtained from Sensitivity/Uncertainty (S/U) packages relevant to validation of transport codes. The task involves Institut de Radioprotection et de Sûreté Nucléaire (IRSN), Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL), and Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL) comparing results of MORET 5/MACSENS V3.0, MCNP6.2/Whisper-1.1, and SCALE 6.2.3/TSUNAMI/USLSTATS respectively. All Monte Carlo transport code results utilize nuclear data from ENDF/B-VII.1 evaluation. This study examines five cases from the International Handbook of Evaluated Criticality Safety Benchmark Experiments (ICSBEP Handbook) selected as application models: IEU-MET- FAST-002-001, LEU-COMP-THERM-001-001, LEU-SOL-THERM-004-001, MIX-COMP- THERM-001-001, and U233-SOL-THERM-001-001. This is a continuation of a previous study to examine Pu and HEU cases: HEU-MET-FAST-013-001, HEU-SOL-THERM-001-008, PU-MET- FAST-022-001, and PU-SOL-THERM-001-001. Ultimately, comparison is made between Upper Subcritical Limits (USLs) obtained using each code package for each application case. Since differences exist in whether packages take into account margin of subcriticality (MOS), the USL is computed using only bias and bias uncertainty, also known as the calculational margin (CM) in ANSI/ANS-8.24. Results comparison appears to show that benchmark selection has a greater influence on the USL than the method used for calculation of bias and bias uncertainty.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2020

MAPPER – A NOVEL CAPABILITY TO SUPPORT NUCLEAR MODEL VALIDATION AND MAPPING OF BIASES AND UNCERTAINTIES

This paper overviews the initial results of a new project at the Oak Ridge National Laboratory -- supported via an internal seed funding program -- focused on the development of a novel computational capability, called MAPPER, to support model validation. The MAPPER development aims to eliminate the need for empirical criteria, such as similarity indices, often employed to identify applicable experiments for given application conditions. To achieve that, MAPPER employs an information-theoretic-based approach, based on the Kullback-Leibler (KL) divergence principle, to combine responses of available or to-be-built experiments with application responses of interest using a training set of samples generated using randomized execution of the experiments and the application high fidelity analysis models. These samples are condensed using reduced order modeling techniques in the form of a joint probability distribution function (PDF) connecting each application response of interest with a new effective experimental response. The initial focus of the MAPPER capability will be to support the confirmatory analysis required for criticality safety analysis of storage facilities which require k-eff biases to be known for safe operation. This paper reports some of the initial results obtained with MAPPER as applied to a set of critical experiments for which existing similarity-based methods have been shown to provide inaccurate estimates of the biases.

Mertyurek, Ugur↗
DOE OSTI2022

High-burnup isotopics bias and uncertainty estimations for LANCR02

Calculated nuclide concentrations are compared against destructive radiochemical assays of modern, high-burnup BWR fuel to validate the LANCR02 lattice physics code. Good agreement is observed between different lattice physics methodologies - including the LANCR02 implementation of Method of Characteristics neutron and gamma transport solver and the TGBLA06 methodology - and against measurements. (authors)

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗
NASA NTRS2023

A Framework for Estimating Global River Discharge From the Surface Water and Ocean Topography Satellite Mission

The Surface Water and Ocean Topography (SWOT) mission will vastly expand measurements of global rivers, providing critical new data sets for both gaged and ungaged basins. SWOT discharge products (available approximately 1 year after launch) will provide discharge for all river that reaches wider than 100 m. In this paper, we describe how SWOT discharge produced and archived by the US and French space agencies will be computed from measurements of river water surface elevation, width, and slope and ancillary data, along with expected discharge accuracy. We present for the first time a complete estimate of the SWOT discharge uncertainty budget, with separate terms for random (standard error) and systematic (bias) uncertainty components in river discharge time series. We expect that discharge uncertainty will be less than 30% for two-thirds of global reaches and will be dominated by bias. Separate river discharge estimates will combine both SWOT and in situ data; these “gage-constrained” discharge estimates can be expected to have lower systematic uncertainty. Temporal variations in river discharge time series will be dominated by random error and are expected to be estimated within 15% for nearly all reaches, allowing accurate inference of event flow dynamics globally, including in ungaged basins. We believe this level of accuracy lays the groundwork for SWOT to enable breakthroughs in global hydrologic science.

Michael Durand↗