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Cost-Benefit Analysis of Electricity Resilience Projects: State of the Art and Gap Analysis

Utilities and regulators must weigh the benefits of electricity resilience projects against their costs, which would be passed on to customers. Cost-benefit analysis (CBA) is an appropriate method for assessing this tradeoff. Here, in this paper we review the literature on CBA of electricity resilience projects and analyze gaps in the available methods and tools. The costs of resilience projects are typically straightforward to estimate but their benefits — particularly the avoided costs of power interruptions — are complex to quantify and monetize. A common perception among practitioners is that current CBA tools are not sufficiently mature to be adopted into real-world practice. We propose an electricity resilience CBA framework consisting of several elements: risks, physical impacts, power interruptions, economic impacts, and resilience projects. While methods for some elements are well-developed, there is a need for novel approaches to value avoided power interruptions, integrate multiple risks and benefit streams, and incorporate uncertainty.

Cost-benefit analysis

A Guide for Aircraft Certification by Analysis

Analysis-based means of compliance for airplane and engine certification, commonly known as "Certification by Analysis" (CbA), provides a strong motivation for the development and maturation of current and future flight and engine modeling technology. The many benefits of CbA include streamlined product certification testing programs at lower cost while maintaining equivalent levels of safety. Flight and engine testing represent a substantial cost to airplane and engine development programs. This report provides a far-reaching vision for CbA and presents a research roadmap for computational technology development to enable CbA.

certification by analysis

Cost-Benefit Analysis for Alternatives to Aliphatic Isocyanate Polyurethanes

NASA and Air Force Space Command (AFSPC) have similar missions and therefore similar facilities and structures in similar environments. The standard practice for protecting metallic substrates in atmospheric environments is the application of an applied coating system. The most common topcoats used in coating systems are polyurethanes that contain isocyanates. Isocyanates are classified as potential human carcinogens and are known to cause cancer in animals. The primary objective of this effort was to demonstrate and validate alternatives to aliphatic isocyanate polyurethanes resulting in one or more isocyanate-free coatings qualified for use at AFSPC and NASA installations participating in this project. This Cost-Benefit Analysis (CBA) quantifies the estimated capital and process costs of coating alternatives and cost savings relative to the current coatings. The estimates in this CBA are to be used for assessing the relative merits of the selected alternatives. The actual economic effects at any specific facility will depend on the alternative material or technology implemented, the number of actual applications converted, future workloads, and other factors . The participants initially considered eighteen (18) alternative coatings as described in the Potential Alternatives Report entitled Potential Alternatives Report for Validation of Alternatives to Aliphatic Isocyanate Polyurethanes, prepared by ITB. Of those, 8 alternatives were selected for testing in accordance with the Joint Test Protocol entitled Joint Test Protocol for Validation of Alternatives to Aliphatic Isocyanate Polyurethanes, and the Field Test Plan entitled Field Evaluations Test Plan for Validation of Alternatives 10 Aliphatic Isocyanate Polyurethanes, both of which were prepared by ITB. A joint Test Report entitled Joint Test Report for Validation of Alternatives to Aliphatic Isocyanate Polyurethanes, prepared by ITB, documents the results of the laboratory and field testing, as well as any test modifications made during the execution of the testing. The coatings selected for evaluation in this CBA are shown in the table below. Only one control coating system is considered in this analysis. These coatings were either downselected for Phase II or performed well enough to be included in the Qualified Products List in the NASA technical standard NASA-STD-5008, Protective Coating of Carbon Steel, Stainless Steel, and Aluminum on Launch Structures, Facilities, and Ground Support Equipment.

Lewis, Pattie

The plasma wave environment of an auroral arc. III - VLF hiss

Auroral hiss in the vicinity of a quiet arc is studied by comparing the data obtained from a sounding rocket with predictions of the convective beam amplification (CBA) model of auroral hiss generation. It is concluded that the VLF auroral hiss observed by the payload appears to have been natural in origin. The CBA model produces predicted hiss spectra that are in good agreement with the data. The hiss intensity above the ionosphere was greater equatorward of the arc than within the arc; this pattern appears to be the result of emission geometry and refraction. Hiss intensity was not found to be better correlated with 0.1-0.7 keV fluxes than with more energetic electrons. No evidence is found for a three-wave parametric decay process. The data are consistent with a weak hiss source located at an altitude of 110-120 km.

Bering, E. A.

Positronium formation in e+ plus H- collisions

Cross sections for positronium formation by capture from the negative hydrogen ion are given. Orthogonalization corrections to the Coulomb (First) Born Approximation (CBA) differential and total cross sections are calculated using approximate H- wave functions of both Lowdin and Chandrasekhar. Various methods of orthogonalizing the unbound projectile to the possible bound states are considered. It is found that treating the atomic nuclei as if they were isotopic spin projections of a single type of nucleon gives cross sections that are an improvement over the CBA.

Straton, Jack C.

Post-Flight Sampling and Loading Characterization of Trace Contaminant Control Subassembly Charcoal

Trace chemical contaminants produced by equipment offgassing and human metabolic processes are removed from the atmosphere of the International Space Station s U.S. Segment by a trace contaminant control subassembly (TCCS). The TCCS employs a combination of physical adsorption, thermal catalytic oxidation, and chemical adsorption processes to accomplish its task. A large bed of granular activated charcoal is a primary component of the TCCS. The charcoal contained in this bed, known as the charcoal bed assembly (CBA), is expendable and must be replaced periodically. Pre-flight engineering analyses based upon TCCS performance testing results established a service life estimate of 1 year. After nearly 1 year of cumulative in-flight operations, the first CBA was returned for refurbishment. Charcoal samples were collected and analyzed for loading to determine the best estimate for the CBAs service life. A history of in-flight TCCS operations is presented as well as a discussion of the charcoal sampling procedures and chemical analysis results. A projected service life derived from the observed charcoal loading is provided. Recommendations for better managing TCCS resources are presented.

Perry, J. L.

Cost-Benefit Analysis For Alternative Low-Emission Surface Preparation/ Depainting Technologies for Structural Steel

Stennis Space Center (SSC), Kennedy Space Center (KSC) and Air Force Space Command (AFSPC) identified particulate emissions and waste generated from the depainting process of steel structures as hazardous materials to be eliminated or reduced. A Potential Alternatives Report, Potential Alternatives Report for Validation of Alternative Low Emission Surface Preparation/Depainting Technologies for Structural Steel, provided a technical analyses of identified alternatives to the current coating removal processes, criteria used to select alternatives for further analysis, and a list of those alternatives recommended for testing. The initial coating removal alternatives list was compiled using literature searches and stakeholder recommendations. The involved project participants initially considered approximately 13 alternatives. In late 2003, core project members selected the following depainting processes to be further evaluated: (1) Plastic Blast Media-Quickstrip(R)-A. (2) Hard Abrasive-Steel-Magic(R). (3) Sponge Blasting-Sponge-Jet(R). (4) Liquid Nitrogen-NItroJet(R). (5) Mechanical Removal with Vacuum Attachment-DESCO and OCM Clean-Air (6) Laser Coating Removal Alternatives were tested in accordance with the Joint Test Protocol for Validation of Alternative Low-Emission Surface Preparation/Depainting Technologies for Structural Steel, and the Field Evaluation Test Plan for Validation of Alternative Low-Emission Surface Preparation/Depainting Technologies for Structural Steel. Results of the testing are documented in the Joint Test Report. This Cost-Benefit Analysis (CBA) focuses on the three alternatives (Quickstrip(R)-A, SteelMagic (R), and Sponge-Jet(R)) that were considered viable alternatives for large area operations based on the results of the field demonstration and lab testing. This CBA was created to help participants determine if implementation of the candidate alternatives is economically justified. Each of the alternatives examined reduced Environmental Activity (EA) Costs-those costs associated with complying with environmental regulations. One alternative, Steel-Magic(R), also showed reduced Direct Costs and reduced total costs.

Lewis, Pattie

Certification-Based Process Analysis

Space mission architects are often challenged with knowing which investment in technology infusion will have the highest return. Certification-based analysis (CBA) gives architects and technologists a means to communicate the risks and advantages of infusing technologies at various points in a process. Various alternatives can be compared, and requirements based on supporting streamlining or automation can be derived and levied on candidate technologies. CBA is a technique for analyzing a process and identifying potential areas of improvement. The process and analysis products are used to communicate between technologists and architects. Process means any of the standard representations of a production flow; in this case, any individual steps leading to products, which feed into other steps, until the final product is produced at the end. This sort of process is common for space mission operations, where a set of goals is reduced eventually to a fully vetted command sequence to be sent to the spacecraft. Fully vetting a product is synonymous with certification. For some types of products, this is referred to as verification and validation, and for others it is referred to as checking. Fundamentally, certification is the step in the process where one insures that a product works as intended, and contains no flaws.

Knight, Russell L.

Proton and Fe Ion-Induced Early and Late Chromosome Aberrations in Different Cell Types

An early stage of cancer development is believed to be genomic instability (GI) which accelerates the mutation rate in the descendants of the cells surviving radiation exposure. To investigate GI induced by charged particles, we exposed human lymphocytes, human fibroblast cells, and human mammary epithelial cells to high energy protons and Fe ions. In addition, we also investigated GI in bone marrow cells isolated from CBA/CaH (CBA) and C57BL/6 (C57) mice, by analyzing cell survival and chromosome aberrations in the cells after multiple cell divisions. Results analyzed so far from the experiments indicated different sensitivities to charged particles between CBA/CaH (CBA) and C57BL/6 (C57) mouse strains, suggesting that there are two main types of response to irradiation: 1) responses associated with survival of damaged cells and 2) responses associated with the induction of non-clonal chromosomal instability in the surviving progeny of stem cells. Previously, we reported that the RBE for initial chromosome damages was high in human lymphocytes exposed to Fe ions. Our results with different cell types demonstrated different RBE values between different cell types and between early and late chromosomal damages. This study also attempts to offer an explanation for the varying RBE values for different cancer types.

Wu, Honglu

Dependence of Early and Late Chromosomal Aberrations on Radiation Quality and Cell Types

Exposure to radiation induces different types of DNA damage, increases mutation and chromosome aberration rates, and increases cellular transformation in vitro and in vivo. The susceptibility of cells to radiation depends on genetic background and growth condition of cells, as well as types of radiation. Mammalian cells of different tissue types and with different genetic background are known to have different survival rate and different mutation rate after cytogenetic insults. Genomic instability, induced by various genetic, metabolic, and environmental factors including radiation, is the driving force of tumorigenesis. Accurate measurements of the relative biological effectiveness (RBE) is important for estimating radiation-related risks. To further understand genomic instability induced by charged particles and their RBE, we exposed human lymphocytes ex vivo, human fibroblast AG1522, human mammary epithelial cells (CH184B5F5/M10), and bone marrow cells isolated from CBA/CaH(CBA) and C57BL/6 (C57) mice to high energy protons and Fe ions. Normal human fibroblasts AG1522 have apparently normal DNA damage response and repair mechanisms, while mammary epithelial cells (M10) are deficient in the repair of DNA DSBs. Mouse strain CBA is radio-sensitive while C57 is radio-resistant. Metaphase chromosomes at different cell divisions after radiation exposure were collected and chromosome aberrations were analyzed as RBE for different cell lines exposed to different radiations at various time points up to one month post irradiation.

Lu, Tao

Development Strategies for Uncertainty Quantification to Enable Aircraft Certification by Analysis

Aircraft Certification by Analysis (CbA) is a broad term that describes the process by which engineering analysis tools are used to supplement flight testing to demonstrate compliance with regulatory requirements. For each requirement that is to be met through this process, the analysis tools must be sufficiently accurate to ensure that an equivalent level of safety is obtained as if the aircraft to be certified had been flight tested for the requirement. In recent decades, the ability of analysis tools to accurately predict aircraft performance has improved dramatically, leading to increasing interest and limited early adoption of Certification by Analysis across the aerospace industry. However, rigorously demonstrating the credibility of analysis tools remains a challenge for many types of certification requirements, yet is necessary for widespread adoption of CbA approaches in the future. The field of uncertainty quantification is well-suited to address this problem, but will require substantial advances in order to achieve the ambitious industry goals for Certification by Analysis. The objective of this position paper is to highlight gaps in the current technical and programmatic state of uncertainty quantification. Four main categories – Mindset & Awareness, Tools & Capabilities, Data and Benchmarks for V&V, and Applied Research & Established Processes – will be introduced. Each of these categories contains several shortcomings and impediments which, if overcome, will enable more widespread possibilities for Certification by Analysis in the 2040-2050 timeframe.

Uncertainty Quantification

CCS Control Box and Phasing Analysis Tool

This presentation will discuss the mathematics and future enhancements to the CCS Control Box and Phasing Analysis Tool (CBA). Various plots will be analyzed to show how maneuvers are detected in the user selected ephemerides and how the violation epoch dates are calculated when a control box violation occurs.

MOWG

The formation and structure of iron-dominated planetesimals

Metal-rich asteroids and iron meteorites are considered core remnants of differentiated planetesimals and/or products of oxygen-depleted accretion. Investigating the origins of iron-rich planetesimals could provide key insights into planet formation mechanisms. Using differentiation models, we evaluate the interior structure and composition of representative-sized planetesimals (~200 km diameter), while varying oxygen fugacity and initial bulk meteoritic composition. Under the oxygen-poor conditions that likely existed early in the inner regions of the Solar System and other protoplanetary disks, core fractions remain relatively consistent across a range of bulk compositions (CI, H, EH, and CBa). Some of these cores could incorporate significant amounts of silicon (10–30 weight%) and explain the metal fractions of Fe-rich bodies in the absence of mantle stripping. Conversely, planetesimals forming under more oxidizing conditions, such as beyond snow lines, could exhibit smaller cores, enriched in carbon, sulfur (>1 wt%), and oxides. Sulfur-rich cores, like those formed from EH and H bulk compositions, could remain partly molten, sustain dynamos, and even drive sulfur-rich volcanism. Additionally, bodies with high carbon contents, such as CI compositions, can form graphitic outer layers. These variations highlight the importance of initial formation conditions in shaping planetesimal structures. Future missions, such as NASA’s Psyche mission, offer an opportunity to measure the relative abundances of key elements (Fe, Ni, Si, and S) necessary to distinguish among formation scenarios and structure models for Fe-rich and reduced planetesimals.

meteorites

Growth and formation of the foreleg skeleton inbred mice and rats under conditions of hypo-, normo- and hyperdynamia

Inbred 1 month old males of C57B 1/6, CBA, CC57Br/Mw interlinear hybrid mice of the first generation and rats of the August and Wistar lines were subjected to conditions of hypo-, normo- and hyperdynamia for 2 months. The statistically reliable dependence is shown between mechanical underloadings and overloadings and macro microscopic changes in the hind limb skeleton of animals. Genetic determination of growth and formation of the forelimb skeleton is established. Hereditary susceptibility and the phenomenon of heterosis are preserved under all motor conditions.

Kogan, B. I.

Lunar and Planetary Science XXXV: Carbonaceous Chondrites

The titles in this section include: 1) A Quantitative NMR Analysis of Phosphorus in Carbonaceous and Ordinary Chondrites; 2) An Infrared Study of the Matrices of CI1 and CM2 Chondrites; 3) A Study of the Morphology, Composition and Mineral Associations of Fe-Ni Sulphides in CM Carbonaceous Chondrites; 4) Aqueous Alteration Mineralogy in CM Carbonaceous Chondrites; 5) In Situ Location and Characterization of Carbon-bearing Phases in Carbonaceous; 6) Chondrites: Insights from Yamato 791198, a Weakly-altered CM2 Chondrite; 7) Unique Texture in EET 83389: Clues to Formation of Fine Grained Rims in CM Chondrites; 8) Amoeboid Olivine Aggregates in the NWA 760 CV3 Chondrite; 9) Petrologic Type of CV3 Chondrites as Revealed by Raman Spectroscopy of Organic Matter; 10) A First Look at Acfer 324: Evidence for Another CR 3 Chondrite? 11) Hydrogen Isotopic Composition of the Bencubbin Meteorite; 12) The Fountain Hills Meteorite: A New CBa Chondrite from Arizona; 13) Shock Effects in the Metal-rich Chondrites QUE 94411, Hammadah al Hamra 237 and Bencubbin; 14) Mineralogy and Petrology of Al-rich Objects in the CH Carbonaceous Chondrite North West Africa 739.

Source record

Petrology and Raman Spectroscopy of Shocked Phases in the Gujba CB Chondrite and the Shock History of the CB Parent Body

The CB chondrites are metal-rich chondritic meteorites having characteristics that sharply distinguish them from other chondrites [1], including (1) high metal abundances (60-80 vol.% metal), (2) most chondrules have cryptocrystalline or barred textures, (3) moderately volatile lithophile elements are highly depleted and (4) nitrogen is enriched in the heavy isotope. Similarities in mineral composition, as well as oxygen and nitrogen isotopic compositions of the CB to CR and CH chondrites are consistent with derivation of these chondrite groups from a common nebular reservoir, hence their grouping in the CR clan [1, 2, 3, 4]. CB chondrites have been divided into CBa (Gujba, Bencubbin, Weatherford) and CBb (Hammadah al Hamra 237 and QUE 94411) subgroups based on petrologic characteristics.

Weisberg, M. K.