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DOE OSTI2025

Monthly Quality-filtered Aggregation of NOAA Climate Data Record (CDR) of AVHRR Leaf Area Index (LAI) and Fraction of Absorbed Photosynthetically Active Radiation (FAPAR), Version 5

This dataset contains gridded monthly Leaf Area Index (LAI) derived from the daily NOAA Climate Data Record (CDR) of AVHRR Leaf Area Index (LAI) and Fraction of Absorbed Photosynthetically Active Radiation (FAPAR), Version 5. This data record spans from 1981 to 2018 using data from eight NOAA polar orbiting satellites: NOAA-7, -9, -11, -14, -16, -17, -18 and -19. The data are projected on a 0.05 degree x 0.05 degree global grid, as in the original CDR. The original CDR is one of the Land Surface CDR Version 5 products produced by the NASA Goddard Space Flight Center (GSFC) and the University of Maryland (UMD), which is accompanied by algorithm documentation, data flow diagram and source code for the NOAA CDR Program. This dataset is in the netCDF-4 file format following ACDD and CF Conventions. This dataset has applied quality assurance information to only include "OK" data from the original CDR in the monthly aggregation.

Vermote, Eric [NASA Goddard Space Flight Center (G↗

DOE OSTI2026

Monthly Quality-filtered Aggregation of NOAA Climate Data Record (CDR) of AVHRR (Version 5) and VIIRS (Version 1) Leaf Area Index (LAI) and Fraction of Absorbed Photosynthetically Active Radiation (FAPAR)

This dataset contains gridded monthly Leaf Area Index (LAI) derived from the daily NOAA Climate Data Record (CDR) of AVHRR (Version 5) and VIIRS (Version 1) Leaf Area Index (LAI) and Fraction of Absorbed Photosynthetically Active Radiation (FAPAR). This data record spans from 1981 to 2024 using data from NOAA polar orbiting satellites: NOAA-7, -9, -11, -14, -16, -17, -18, -19 and S-NPP. The data are projected on a 0.05 degree x 0.05 degree global grid, as in the original CDR. The original CDR is one of the Land Surface CDR products produced by the NASA Goddard Space Flight Center (GSFC) and the University of Maryland (UMD), which is accompanied by algorithm documentation, data flow diagram and source code for the NOAA CDR Program. This dataset is in the netCDF-4 file format following ACDD and CF Conventions. This dataset has applied quality assurance information to only include "OK" data from the original CDR in the monthly aggregation.

Vermote, Eric [NASA Goddard Space Flight Center (G↗

DOE OSTI2025

Technical and Community Foundations for High-Integrity CDR MRV Standards (Final Report)

The goal of this project (hereafter referred to as the “umbrella project”) was to establish cross-cutting technical foundations for carbon dioxide removal (CDR) accounting decisions. These cross-cutting and science driven technical foundations are necessary to increase trust in standards-setting and protocol development. According to key stakeholders in the industry, establishment of trusted standards is necessary to unlock and catalyze investment in the CDR industry as well as commercialization and deployment of verified, accepted high quality CDR technologies. Additionally, our umbrella project served as the lead coordinator of the cohort of three additional CDR pathway-focused projects funded under this award. In this role, we brought together the project teams to share insights, industry feedback, and approaches to CDR accounting standards development.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2021

PERSIANN-CCS-CDR, a 3-hourly 0.04° global precipitation climate data record for heavy precipitation studies

Accurate long-term global precipitation estimates, especially for heavy precipitation rates, at fine spatial and temporal resolutions is vital for a wide variety of climatological studies. Most of the available operational precipitation estimation datasets provide either high spatial resolution with short-term duration estimates or lower spatial resolution with long-term duration estimates. Furthermore, previous research has stressed that most of the available satellite-based precipitation products show poor performance for capturing extreme events at high temporal resolution. Therefore, there is a need for a precipitation product that reliably detects heavy precipitation rates with fine spatiotemporal resolution and a longer period of record. Precipitation Estimation from Remotely Sensed Information using Artificial Neural Networks-Cloud Classification System-Climate Data Record (PERSIANN-CCS-CDR) is designed to address these limitations. This dataset provides precipitation estimates at 0.04° spatial and 3-hourly temporal resolutions from 1983 to present over the global domain of 60°S to 60°N. Evaluations of PERSIANN-CCS-CDR and PERSIANN-CDR against gauge and radar observations show the better performance of PERSIANN-CCS-CDR in representing the spatiotemporal resolution, magnitude, and spatial distribution patterns of precipitation, especially for extreme events.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2023

The smallest functional antibody fragment: Ultralong CDR H3 antibody knob regions potently neutralize SARS-CoV-2

Cows produce antibodies with a disulfide-bonded antigen-binding domain embedded within ultralong heavy chain third complementarity determining regions. This “knob” domain is analogous to natural cysteine-rich peptides such as knottins in that it is small and stable but can accommodate diverse loops and disulfide bonding patterns. We immunized cattle with SARS-CoV-2 spike and found ultralong CDR H3 antibodies that could neutralize several viral variants at picomolar IC 50 potencies in vitro and could protect from disease in vivo. The independent CDR H3 peptide knobs were expressed and maintained the properties of the parent antibodies. The knob interaction with SARS-CoV-2 spike was revealed by electron microscopy, X-ray crystallography, NMR spectroscopy, and mass spectrometry and established ultralong CDR H3-derived knobs as the smallest known recombinant independent antigen-binding fragment. Unlike other vertebrate antibody fragments, these knobs are not reliant on the immunoglobulin domain and have potential as a new class of therapeutics.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2025

Carbon Dioxide Removal Measurement, Reporting, and Verification Simulation toolkit (CDR MRVSim) v0.1

CDR MRVSim is a statistical software toolkit for techno-economic analysis of measurement, reporting, and verification of multiple carbon dioxide removal technologies. The current version applies Monte Carlo simulation to existing datasets estimate the cost and uncertainty of measuring the soil organic carbon (SOC) content of agricultural land, accounting for multiple sources of uncertainty, using data from field measurements. We are planning to incorporate enhanced rock weathering and other technologies into the software. The current model leverages existing data to characterize underlying variability in soil organic carbon and related parameters, including bulk density, in an agricultural field attempting to increase its SOC. We then simulate baseline and post-intervention "measurement campaigns" in which some number of SOC and bulk density measurements are conducted using a selected technology. This enables estimates of the cost and accuracy of measuring changes in SOC in the simulated field. The primary advantages over similar software are: 1) ability to quantify tradeoffs between cost and uncertainty in MRV across a range of possible MRV approaches 2) focus on guiding development of novel sensors by determining desirable sets of characteristics

Sherwin, Evan [Lawrence Berkeley National Laborato↗

DOE OSTI2026

Data for The Value of Reversible Carbon Storage in a Zero-Emissions World

Atmospheric carbon dioxide removal (CDR) is required to stabilize global temperature. CDR can be achieved via ecosystem-based approaches that are cost-effective but reversible (e.g., soil and forest management) or by more durable but expensive approaches (e.g., direct air capture coupled with geologic storage). Here, we examine trade-offs between these approaches, focusing on timing, climate impacts, and cost. We simulated reversible carbon accrual for a range of CDR contract structures using a general minimalist model of ecosystem carbon cycling, and parameterized it to simulate US agricultural soil management─specifically cover cropping─as a case study. We then quantified the resulting impact on atmospheric carbon and global temperature using a climate model emulator. We find that maintaining a patchwork of reversible CDR projects by replacing lapsed projects with new projects can reduce warming by 22–195 μ°C in 2100 and that the magnitude of this cooling effect depends on how effectively the patchwork is maintained. Long-term maintenance of reversible CDR projects requires institutional stability that cannot be guaranteed over multiple decades. Consequently, effective CDR ultimately requires replacing reversible projects with durable projects. To address this problem, we modeled the cost of replacing reversible agricultural soil CDR with geologic CDR. We found that using reversible CDR as a bridge to durable CDR is potentially more cost-effective as a global cooling strategy (0.20–0.81 billion USD per μ°C avoided) than perpetual maintenance of reversible CDR (0.32–1.31 billion USD per μ°C avoided) or an immediate transition to durable CDR (1.37–2.19 billion USD per μ°C avoided). However, we emphasize that institutional commitments to maintain reversible CDR projects cannot be guaranteed. Reliance on reversible CDR as a bridge to durable CDR therefore carries an unknown amount of risk and will only function if efforts to maintain reversible CDR are robust.

Carbon↗

DOE OSTI2026

The Value of Reversible Carbon Storage in a Zero-Emissions World

carbon capture and storage↗

DOE OSTI2024

The impact of regional resources and technology availability on carbon dioxide removal potential in the United States

To achieve net zero carbon emissions by mid-century, the United States may need to rely on carbon dioxide removal (CDR) to offset emissions from difficult-to-decarbonize sectors and/or shortfalls in near-term mitigation efforts. CDR can be delivered using many approaches with different requirements for land, water, geologic carbon storage capacity, energy, and other resources. The availability of these resources varies by region in the U.S. suggesting that CDR deployment will be uneven across the country. Using the global change analysis model for the United States (GCAM-USA), we modeled six classes of CDR and explored their potential using four scenarios: a scenario where all the CDR pathways are available (Full Portfolio), a scenario with restricted carbon capture and storage (Low CCS), a scenario where the availability of bio-based CDR options is limited (Low Bio), and a scenario with constraints on enhanced rock weathering (ERW) capabilities (Low ERW). We find that by employing a diverse set of CDR approaches, the U.S. could remove between 1 and 1.9 GtCO 2 /yr by midcentury. In the Full Portfolio scenario, direct air carbon capture and storage (DACCS) predominates, delivering approximately 50% of CO 2 removal, with bioenergy with carbon capture and storage contributing 25%, and ERW delivering 11.5%. Texas and the agricultural Midwest lead in CDR deployment due to their abundant agricultural land and geological storage availability. In the Low CCS scenario, reliance on DACCS decreases, easing pressure on energy systems but increasing pressure on the land. In all cases CDR deployment was found to drive important impacts on energy, land, or materials supply chains (to supply ERW, for example) and these effects were generally more pronounced when fewer CDR technologies were available.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2025

Applying equity principles leads to higher carbon removal obligations in Canada

Despite net-zero pledges, consensus on national responsibilities for carbon dioxide removal (CDR) strategies is lacking. Here, we use integrated assessment modeling to examine equity-informed estimates of Canada’s remaining carbon budgets, exploring CDR’s role at net-zero and beyond. Gigaton-scale CDR efforts post-2050 are needed to address Canada’s carbon debt under various burden-sharing principles. Cumulative negative emissions (2050-2100) could increase from 7.5 GtCO 2 in the Net-Zero scenario to 20.3 GtCO 2 in equity-informed scenarios. By 2100, a CDR portfolio, including bioenergy with carbon capture and storage, direct air capture, and enhanced weathering could contribute up to ~500 MtCO 2 /year of removals. The projected average CDR growth rates, 2.8%-16%/year, align with the historical adoption rates of ammonia synthesis and biomass consumption in Canada, underscoring the importance of drawing lessons from past successes. Socio-economic and technological sensitivity analysis highlights that, despite variations in the role of individual CDR technologies, CDR remains essential for Canada’s post-net-zero commitments.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2024

Ambitious efforts on residual emissions can reduce CO 2 removal and lower peak temperatures in a net-zero future

Carbon dioxide removal (CDR) is expected to play a critical role in reaching net zero CO 2 and especially net zero greenhouse gase (GHG) emissions. However, the extent to which the role of CDR in counterbalancing residual emissions can be reduced has not yet been fully quantified. Here, we use a state-of-the-art integrated assessment model to develop a 'Maximum Sectoral Effort' scenario which features global emissions policies alongside ambitious effort across sectors to reduce their gross GHG emissions and thereby the CDR required for offsets. We find that these efforts can reduce CDR by over 50% globally, increase both the relative and absolute role of the land sink in storing carbon, and more evenly distribute CDR contributions and associated side-effects across regions compared to CO 2 pricing alone. Furthermore, the lower cumulative CO 2 and nonCO 2 emissions leads to earlier and lower peak temperatures. Emphasizing reductions in gross, in addition to net emissions while disallowing the substitution of less durable CDR for offsets can therefore reduce both physical and transition risks associated with high CDR deployment and temperature overshoot.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2024

Carbon Removal Accounting for a Sustainable Future: Distributing CO 2 Flows in Multiservice Systems

Carbon dioxide removal (CDR) systems are an integral part of sustainable pathways limiting global warming to less than 2.0 °C. When the sole purpose of CDR is capturing and storing atmospheric CO 2 , carbon registries offer detailed procedures to calculate the carbon removal credits. However, the registries do not address how to distribute CO 2 flows when CDR provides additional services. Standardized, transparent rules for distributing CO 2 flows among CDR services are required for the formation of efficient private and public carbon markets. The lack of such rules could result in double counting if those reductions are allocated to more than one service, decreasing the trustworthiness of carbon removal credits or deterring the delivery of an additional low-carbon service, thus limiting the economic viability and deployment of CDR. We examine allocation rules in carbon registries and carbon accounting guidelines, including their life cycle assessment (LCA) principles. We evaluate physical (mass-based) and non-physical (economic) allocation methods using a generic CDR system and find both to be unworkable. We then develop a mass balance (MB) approach which can reliably allocate captured and stored carbon (CSC) between carbon removal credits and other services based on the value CO 2 removal in those markets. This practical approach to allocation can be used in a transparent way to provide flexibility that would allow CDR services to capture the value of the multiple services they provide and, through this, promote the deployment of these sustainable alternatives.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2020

Carbon-Negative Biofuel Production

Achievement of the 1.5 °C limit for global temperature increase relies on the large-scale deployment of carbon dioxide removal (CDR) technologies. In this article, we explore two CDR technologies: soil carbon sequestration (SCS), and carbon capture and storage (CCS) integrated with cellulosic biofuel production. These CDR technologies are applied as part of decentralized biorefinery systems processing corn stover and unfertilized switchgrass grown in riparian zones in the Midwestern United States. Cover crops grown on corn-producing lands are chosen from the SCS approach, and biogenic CO 2 in biorefineries is captured, transported by pipeline, and injected into saline aquifers. The decentralized biorefinery system using SCS, CCS, or both can produce carbon-negative cellulosic biofuels (≤-22.2 gCO 2 MJ –1 ). Meanwhile, biofuel selling prices increase by 15–45% due to CDR costs. Economic incentives (e.g., cover crop incentives and/or a CO 2 tax credit) can mitigate price increases caused by CDR technologies. Lastly, a combination of different CDR technologies in decentralized biorefinery systems is the most efficient method for greenhouse gas (GHG) mitigation, and its total GHG mitigation potential in the Midwest is 0.16 GtCO 2 year –1 .

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗

DOE OSTI2024

Deployment expectations of multi-gigatonne scale carbon removal could have adverse impacts on Asia’s energy-water-land nexus

Abstract Existing studies indicate that future global carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) removal (CDR) efforts could largely be concentrated in Asia. However, there is limited understanding of how individual Asian countries and regions will respond to varying and uncertain scales of future CDR concerning their energy-land-water system. We address this gap by modeling various levels of CDR-reliant pathways under climate change ambitions in Asia. We find that high CDR reliance leads to residual fossil fuel and industry emissions of about 8 Gigatonnes CO 2 yr −1 (GtCO 2 yr −1 ) by 2050, compared to less than 1 GtCO 2 yr −1 under moderate-to-low CDR reliance. Moreover, expectations of multi-gigatonne CDR could delay the achievement of domestic net zero CO 2 emissions for several Asian countries and regions, and lead to higher land allocation and fertilizer demand for bioenergy crop cultivation. Here, we show that Asian countries and regions should prioritize emission reduction strategies while capitalizing on the advantages of carbon removal when it is most viable.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

DOE OSTI2025

Transforming US agriculture for carbon removal with enhanced weathering

Abstract Enhanced weathering (EW) with agriculture uses crushed silicate rocks to drive carbon dioxide removal (CDR) 1,2 . If widely adopted on farmlands, it could help achieve net-zero emissions by 2050 2–4 . Here we show, with a detailed US state-specific carbon cycle analysis constrained by resource provision, that EW deployed on agricultural land could sequester 0.16–0.30 GtCO 2 yr −1 by 2050, rising to 0.25–0.49 GtCO 2 yr −1 by 2070. Geochemical assessment of rivers and oceans suggests effective transport of dissolved products from EW from soils, offering CDR on intergenerational timescales. Our analysis further indicates that EW may temporarily help lower ground-level ozone and concentrations of secondary aerosols in agricultural regions. Geospatially mapped CDR costs show heterogeneity across the USA, reflecting a combination of cropland distance from basalt source regions, timing of EW deployment and evolving CDR rates. CDR costs are highest in the first two decades before declining to about US$100–150 tCO 2 −1 by 2050, including for states that contribute most to total national CDR. Although EW cannot be a substitute for emission reductions, our assessment strengthens the case for EW as an overlooked practical innovation for helping the USA meet net-zero 2050 goals 5,6 . Public awareness of EW and equity impacts of EW deployment across the USA require further exploration 7,8 and we note that mobilizing an EW industry at the necessary scale could take decades.

Science & Technology - Other Topics↗

DOE OSTI2022

Hydrolytic Softening of Ocean Water for Carbon Dioxide Removal

This project provided the proof of concept testing for hydrolytic softening, a process for ocean carbon dioxide removal (CDR) based on precipitation softening, where the hydrated lime used to initiate carbonate precipitation is regenerated using a low-energy thermochemical cycle. These proof of concept tests demonstrated each key step of the hydrolytic CDR process including: 1) precipitation of dissolved carbon dioxide from seawater using hydrated lime, 2) decomposing the precipitated calcium carbonate to separate a high-purity stream of carbon dioxide, and 3) regenerating hydrated lime from the decomposition products to complete the cycle. The experimental results were used as the basis for a chemical process model of hydrolytic CDR, which was then used to estimate the techno-economic performance of a conceptual full-scale system. Results included a total energy consumption estimate of 248 kJ per mole of separated and compressed CO 2 . The predicted levelized cost of ocean CDR using hydrolytic softening could reach the Department of Energy’s Carbon Negative Shot target of $\$$100/tCO 2 assuming optimally-sited wind power resources with a power cost of $\$$26/MWh. If developed further, hydrolytic CDR could be a near-term, scalable, and cost-effective method to draw down legacy carbon dioxide emissions that have been absorbed in the oceans. Offshore operations would create highly skilled jobs directly at the CDR facilities in addition to supporting a wider network of coastal service providers and their communities.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

DOE OSTI2026

Large-Scale Carbon Removal Will Create Public Health, Economic, and Climate Tradeoffs

Economy-wide efforts to achieve net-zero emissions offer both climate and air quality-related public health benefits from reducing fossil fuel combustion. We explore the expected costs and benefits if carbon dioxide removal (CDR) is deployed at scale in support of these efforts. Six leading forms of CDR at two levels of deployment are compared to a scenario with no U.S. climate action. We find that heavy reliance on CDR avoids a $2.5-5.8 trillion USD2020 in climate damages, provides $2.8-6.5 trillion USD2020 public health benefits, returns $5-6 trillion USD2020 in CDR revenues, but requires $11-13 trillion USD2020 CO2 mitigation cost, cumulatively by 2050 in the U.S. In contrast, lower reliance on CDR requires much deeper near-term fossil-fuel reductions, which increases mitigation costs by 52% but also creates 26% higher public health benefits from reductions in particulate matter- and ozone-related mortality and morbidity, preventing about 12,600 premature deaths by mid-century in the U.S.

Javadi, Parisa↗

DOE OSTI2024

Biochar as a carbon dioxide removal strategy in integrated long-run mitigation scenarios

Abstract Limiting global warming to under 2 °C would require stringent mitigation and likely additional carbon dioxide removal (CDR) to compensate for otherwise unabated emissions. Because of its technology readiness, relatively low cost, and potential co-benefits, the application of biochar to soils could be an effective CDR strategy. We use the Global Change Analysis Model, a global multisector model, to analyze biochar deployment in the context of energy system uses of biomass with CDR under different carbon price trajectories. We find that biochar can create an annual sink of up to 2.8 GtCO 2 per year, reducing global mean temperature increases by an additional 0.5%–1.8% across scenarios by 2100 for a given carbon price path. In our scenarios, biochar’s deployment is dependent on potential crop yield gains and application rates, and the competition for resources with other CDR measures. We find that biochar can serve as a competitive CDR strategy, especially at lower carbon prices when bioenergy with carbon capture and storage is not yet economical.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗