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Dynamic Linking of Upstream Energy and Freight Demands for Bio and Fossil Energy Pathways in the Global Change Analysis Model
Comprehensive study of the environmental impacts associated with demand for an energy resource or carrier in any one sector requires a full consideration of the direct and indirect impacts on the rest of the regional and global energy system. It is important to consider the energy that is consumed in producing primary energy resources and energy consumed in transporting these energy resources internationally and domestically in order to produce a complete picture of these impacts. Biofuels are especially complex since they have feedbacks not just to the energy system but also to regional and global crop markets. Different modeling and analysis strategies have been applied to consider these impacts, which occur “upstream” of final energy consumption, with some success. Traditional life cycle models allow for rich technological detail in linking upstream impacts of energy demand with downstream final consumption; however, they cannot by themselves represent dynamic economic feedbacks across multiple sectors and regions over time. Computable general equilibrium (CGE) modeling does account for economic feedback among all sectors and regions; however, CGE modeling does not lend itself to physical representation of technological detail. Partial equilibrium (PE) modeling is a heterogeneous category describing economic models that focus on a subset of the economy, and they differ in coverage and ease in incorporating more sectors and economic links. In this study, we present a strategy for dynamically including the direct and indirect impacts of energy demand with physical and technology detail by explicitly adding these upstream energy and transportation links to GCAM, a PE model of global energy, land use, and emissions. We incorporate the following inter-sectoral linkages: energy inputs to crop production, energy inputs to fossil resource production, and freight transport requirements of energy and agricultural commodities. We assess the implications of explicitly including these links by measuring the global impacts of increased corn ethanol demand in the United States with and without these links included. Although the net global impact of the upstream links on energy and emissions are relatively modest in the scenarios we studied, the inclusion of these links illustrates interesting trade-offs in energy and transportation demand among fossil fuel and agriculture sectors. These sectoral interactions suggest that this level of modeling detail could be important in evaluating future analytical questions.
Modeling Sectoral Labor Transitions with WiNDC
This presentation details the data and calibration behind sector specific labor transitions in a CGE model.
Hydrogen-rich syngas production from the steam co-gasification of low-density polyethylene and coal refuse
Gasification provides a promising pathway for transforming waste materials into valuable products, such as fuels and chemicals. Here, this study investigates the steam co-gasification of low-density polyethylene (LDPE) and compressed thickener underflow, representative of coal refuse (CR), in a drop tube reactor. The effects of feed blend ratio (0–100 wt% LDPE) and temperature (800–1000 °C) on syngas composition, tar formation, and process efficiency are examined. The high volatility of LDPE makes it more reactive than CR but also promotes the formation of 2–7 ring aromatic tars. Increasing temperature improves carbon conversion efficiency (CCE), cold gas efficiency (CGE), and syngas yield, although the lower heating value (LHV) of syngas decreases. Hydrogen is the dominant gas product, reaching 59 vol% with the H 2 /CO molar ratio ranging from 2.27 to 4.74. Synergistic effects from alkali and alkali earth metals (AAEMs), particularly K and Ca, in CR ash enhance syngas yield by catalyzing char gasification and tar cracking. Hematite (Fe 2 O 3 ) and ash from sub-bituminous/bituminous coals are explored as tar reforming catalysts. Fe 2 O 3 achieves 100 % tar reforming efficiency, while coal ash, with a lower Fe 2 O 3 content (15 wt%), is less effective at cracking polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons, particularly naphthalene. These findings demonstrate the flexibility of co-gasification, allowing precise tuning of syngas characteristics for specific downstream applications. Further optimization of waste-derived catalysts could enhance the economic viability of gasification in waste-to-energy processes.
Regional Economic Impacts of the Los Angeles 100% Renewable Energy Transition
To help mitigate greenhouse gas (GHGs) generation from burning fossil fuels, many state and local governments are requiring utilities to dramatically increase the share of electricity generated from renewable sources. The City of Los Angeles has set a target of 100% renewable energy by 2045 and has formulated a plan that considers nine potential alternative scenarios that differ by technology, location, and timing. Each scenario has a unique set of local investments, operating and maintenance (O&M) costs, and concomitant rate structures. In this study we develop and apply a computable general equilibrium (CGE) model built specifically for LA to estimate and compare the economic impacts for each of the scenarios over time relative to a reference case. We find differences in economic impacts across scenarios, depending on the level and timing of investment and O&M expenditures, as well as differences in the relative rate changes across scenarios. Results show that employment and economic output are positively correlated with greater capital and O&M spending, while higher electricity rates can dampen economic activity. Several scenarios generate positive economic impacts relative to the reference case, showing that the transition need not have harmful economic impacts, and all scenarios generate a number of other positive co-benefits, such as reduced damage to health from the reduction of ordinary air pollutants. The net employment impacts from 2026 to 2045 across the scenarios range from a low of 3,600 job-year losses annually to 4,700 job-year gains, both around only 0.1% of the baseline average annual employment in the city over that period. The analysis also indicates that lower-income households are relatively more affected than others by the scenarios. Overall, even in the most negatively impactful case, the economic output and employment effects are quite small when taken in the context of the overall size of the regional economy and the large reduction in GHGs.
Reduced legacy precipitation decreases microbial community growth efficiency and alters soil organic carbon in a California grassland
Changes in global patterns can leave a lasting legacy in semiarid grasslands by reshaping microbial growth dynamics and carbon cycling during the first wet-up in the autumn—a period known for intense microbial activity and significant carbon emissions. To study the lasting impacts of decreased winter rain, we implemented two precipitation regimes (100% vs. 50% mean annual precipitation) in California Mediterranean-climate grassland field plots. After the dry season, soils were rewetted in the laboratory with H 2 18 O and sampled at 0 h, 3 h, 24 h, 48 h, 72 h, and 168 h post rewet. We quantified CO 2 efflux, measured microbial growth and mortality via quantitative 18 O stable isotope probing and 16S rRNA gene amplicon sequencing, and characterized the soil organic carbon chemical composition, metagenomes, and metatranscriptomes.