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New York City Panel on Climate Change 2019 Report Chapter 9: Perspectives on a City in a Changing Climate 2008-2018
Cities experience multiple environmental shifts, stresses, and shocks—such as air and water pollution—and a variety of extreme events simultaneously and continuously. Current urban programs have focused on limiting the impacts of these conditions through a portfolio of multifaceted strategies, such as regulations and codes, management and restoration projects, and citizen engagement. Global climate change represents a new environmental dynamic to which cities now have to respond. While global climate change by definition has impacts world wide, residents and managers of cities, like New York, typically perceive changes in their own local environments. In most cities, temperature is warming with increasingly hotter and longer heatwaves, and heavier downpours are leading to more frequent inland flooding. In coastal cities, sea levels are rising, exacerbating coastal flooding. Analyzing and understanding the impacts of climate change on cities is important because of the dramatic growth in urban populations throughout the world. An estimated nearly 4.0 billion people reside in urban areas, accounting for 52% of the world’s population (UN, 2017). That percentage will increase dramatically in the coming decades as almost all of the growth to take place up to 2050 will be in urban areas (UN, 2017). The New York City metropolitan region (NYMR)—the five boroughs (equivalent to counties) of New York City and the adjacent 26 counties in the states of New York, New Jersey, and Connecticut—is an ideal model of an urban agglomeration. Approximately 8.6 million people live in the five boroughs and more than 15 million people live in the neighboring smaller cities, towns, and villages (City of New York, 2018a; US Census, 2017). The population of the five boroughs is projected to add 1 million people by 2030, while the total region is projected to reach 26.1 million (NYTC, 2015).
Changing Climate, Changing Data: Exposing Climate Data to New Users Through GeoPlatform.gov’s Resilience Community
Over 700 climate related datasets were curated by subject matter experts into 9 thematic areas as a part of the Climate Data Initiative (CDI). NASA was tasked with maintaining the collection’s data inventory and supporting web pages at data.gov/climate. Today, the Data Curation for Discovery (DCD) team at MSFC continues to support the CDI collection. In order to expose the collection to a new and growing user community, the DCD team has partnered with GeoPlatform.gov to develop the Resilience community. The Resilience community serves as an interactive, topically-focused web portal that further promotes and shares CDI web content, datasets, services, maps, and other tools relevant to global resilience and change. This poster focuses on the team’s efforts to leverage GeoPlatform’s semantic applications to link CDI objects within the platform to improve discoverability. This poster also provides insights as to how this effort may serve as an example for building and expanding future Geoplatform.gov communities..
Challenges and priorities for modelling livestock health and pathogens in the context of climate change
Climate change has the potential to impair livestock health, with consequences for animal welfare, productivity, greenhouse gas emissions, and human livelihoods and health. Modelling has an important role in assessing the impacts of climate change on livestock systems and the efficacy of potential adaptation strategies, to support decision making for more efficient, resilient and sustainable production. However, a coherent set of challenges and research priorities for modelling livestock health and pathogens under climate change has not previously been available. To identify such challenges and priorities, researchers from across Europe were engaged in a horizon-scanning study, involving workshop and questionnaire based exercises and focussed literature reviews. Eighteen key challenges were identified and grouped into six categories based on subject-specific and capacity building requirements. Across a number of challenges, the need for inventories relating model types to different applications (e.g. the pathogen species, region, scale of focus and purpose to which they can be applied) was identified, in order to identify gaps in capability in relation to the impacts of climate change on animal health. The need for collaboration and learning across disciplines was highlighted in several challenges, e.g. to better understand and model complex ecological interactions between pathogens, vectors, wildlife hosts and livestock in the context of climate change. Collaboration between socio-economic and biophysical disciplines was seen as important for better engagement with stakeholders and for improved modelling of the costs and benefits of poor livestock health. The need for more comprehensive validation of empirical relationships, for harmonising terminology and measurements, and for building capacity for under-researched nations, systems and health problems indicated the importance of joined up approaches across nations. The challenges and priorities identified can help focus the development of modelling capacity and future research structures in this vital field. Well-funded networks capable of managing the long-term development of shared resources are required in order to create a cohesive modelling community equipped to tackle the complex challenges of climate change. - Highlights: • Experts identified challenges for health and pathogen modelling under climate change. • Eighteen key challenges and associated research priorities were identified. • Increasing capacity will require improved organisation and sharing knowledge. • Better communication across the diverse topics and approaches in this field is needed.
Attributing human mortality from fire PM 2.5 to climate change
Climate change intensifies fire smoke, emitting hazardous air pollutants that impact human health. However, the global influence of climate change on fire-induced health impacts remains unquantified. Here, in this study, we used three well-tested fire-vegetation models in combination with a chemical transport model and health risk assessment framework to attribute global human mortality from fire fine particulate matter (PM 2.5 ) emissions to climate change. Of the 46401 (1960s) –to 98748 (2010s) annual fire PM 2.5 mortalities, 669 (1.2%, 1960s) –to 12566 (12.8%, 2010s) were attributed to climate change. The most substantial influence of climate change on fire mortality occurred in South America, Australia, and Europe, coinciding with decreased relative humidity, and in boreal forests with increased air temperature. Increasing relative humidity lowered fire mortality in other regions, like South Asia. Our study highlights the role of climate change in fire mortality, aiding public health authorities in spatial targeting adaptation measures for sensitive fire-prone areas.
Pervasive alterations to snow-dominated ecosystem functions under climate change
Climate change projections consistently demonstrate that warming temperatures and dwindling seasonal snowpack will elicit cascading effects on ecosystem function and water resource availability. Despite this consensus, little is known about potential changes in the variability of ecohydrological conditions, which is also required to inform climate change adaptation and mitigation strategies. Considering potential changes in ecohydrological variability is critical to evaluating the emergence of trends, assessing the likelihood of extreme events such as floods and droughts, and identifying when tipping points may be reached that fundamentally alter ecohydrological function. Using a single-model Large Ensemble with sophisticated terrestrial ecosystem representation, we characterize projected changes in the mean state and variability of ecohydrological processes in historically snow-dominated regions of the Northern Hemisphere. Widespread snowpack reductions, earlier snowmelt timing, longer growing seasons, drier soils, and increased fire risk are projected for this century under a high-emissions scenario. In addition to these changes in the mean state, increased variability in winter snowmelt will increase growing-season water deficits and increase the stochasticity of runoff. Thus, with warming, declining snowpack loses its dependable buffering capacity so that runoff quantity and timing more closely reflect the episodic characteristics of precipitation. This results in a declining predictability of annual runoff from maximum snow water equivalent, which has critical implications for ecosystem stress and water resource management. So our results suggest that there is a strong likelihood of pervasive alterations to ecohydrological function that may be expected with climate change.
Climate Analogues Suggest Limited Potential for Intensification of Production on Current Croplands Under Climate Change
Climate change could pose a major challenge to efforts towards strongly increase food production over the coming decades. However, model simulations of future climate-impacts on crop yields differ substantially in the magnitude and even direction of the projected change. Combining observations of current maximum-attainable yield with climate analogues, we provide a complementary method of assessing the effect of climate change on crop yields. Strong reductions in attainable yields of major cereal crops are found across a large fraction of current cropland by 2050. These areas are vulnerable to climate change and have greatly reduced opportunity for agricultural intensification. However, the total land area, including regions not currently used for crops, climatically suitable for high attainable yields of maize, wheat and rice is similar by 2050 to the present-day. Large shifts in land-use patterns and crop choice will likely be necessary to sustain production growth rates and keep pace with demand.
Climate analogues suggest limited potential for intensification of production on current croplands under climate change
Climate change could pose a major challenge to efforts towards strongly increase food production over the coming decades. However, model simulations of future climate-impacts on crop yields differ substantially in the magnitude and even direction of the projected change. Combining observations of current maximum-attainable yield with climate analogues, we provide a complementary method of assessing the effect of climate change on crop yields. Strong reductions in attainable yields of major cereal crops are found across a large fraction of current cropland by 2050. These areas are vulnerable to climate change and have greatly reduced opportunity for agricultural intensification. However, the total land area, including regions not currently used for crops, climatically suitable for high attainable yields of maize, wheat and rice is similar by 2050 to the present-day. Large shifts in land-use patterns and crop choice will likely be necessary to sustain production growth rates and keep pace with demand.
Limited potential of irrigation to prevent potato yield losses in Germany under climate change
Climate models project higher temperatures and a substantial net water deficit during the summer months over Germany until the end of the 21st century. The agricultural sector is particularly vulnerable to changing weather and climate conditions. In this study, we examine the role of irrigation for potato yields as a climate change adaptation measure in Northeast Lower Saxony (Germany). The region represents the largest irrigated area in Germany and is one of the main growing areas of potatoes. We develop a statistical multivariate regression model to investigate whether regional climate and irrigation data at the monthly and county level are suitable to describe potato yield variability from 1978 to 2018. Irrigation is estimated based on the climatic water balance and crop water demand. These estimates are calibrated against irrigation data from local agencies to account for realistic monthly water withdrawals. We analyze future yield changes based on climate model projections for the 21st century and different irrigation scenarios. We find that the potato yield will decrease significantly by 18% on average until 2050 with climate projection uncertainty of ±6.4% under the high emission scenario RCP 8.5 and without irrigation. Irrigation at current levels could compensate for about 54% of these yield losses. Doubling the amount of irrigation minimizes yield losses by as much as 80%. Under the low (middle) emission scenario RCP 2.6 (RCP 4.5), potato yield are projected to decrease moderately by 4.5% ± 3.4% (5.4% ± 2.8%) with irrigation at current levels. We show that the yield losses mainly originate from higher temperatures during the summer. Our analysis indicates that the capacity of irrigation to minimize yield losses is limited. Strengthening climate change mitigation efforts may be more effective in preventing yield losses. However, the effect of elevated CO 2 might buffer the high yield losses, especially in RCP 8.5. The studies supports farmers and decision makers in assessing future risks in potato yields. It can guide policymakers in allocating economic resources to cope with climate change.
Interactions of Mean Climate Change and Climate Variability on Food Security Extremes
Recognizing that climate change will affect agricultural systems both through mean changes and through shifts in climate variability and associated extreme events, we present preliminary analyses of climate impacts from a network of 1137 crop modeling sites contributed to the AgMIP Coordinated Climate-Crop Modeling Project (C3MP). At each site sensitivity tests were run according to a common protocol, which enables the fitting of crop model emulators across a range of carbon dioxide, temperature, and water (CTW) changes. C3MP can elucidate several aspects of these changes and quantify crop responses across a wide diversity of farming systems. Here we test the hypothesis that climate change and variability interact in three main ways. First, mean climate changes can affect yields across an entire time period. Second, extreme events (when they do occur) may be more sensitive to climate changes than a year with normal climate. Third, mean climate changes can alter the likelihood of climate extremes, leading to more frequent seasons with anomalies outside of the expected conditions for which management was designed. In this way, shifts in climate variability can result in an increase or reduction of mean yield, as extreme climate events tend to have lower yield than years with normal climate.C3MP maize simulations across 126 farms reveal a clear indication and quantification (as response functions) of mean climate impacts on mean yield and clearly show that mean climate changes will directly affect the variability of yield. Yield reductions from increased climate variability are not as clear as crop models tend to be less sensitive to dangers on the cool and wet extremes of climate variability, likely underestimating losses from water-logging, floods, and frosts.
Envisioning a future with climate change
Climate change research and assessments, including the most recent IPCC report, paint an increasingly dire picture of the future. However, though, the assumption that the future will be worse than the present may be wrong for many aspects of human well-being.
Climate Services for Agriculture: Tools for Informing Decisions Relating to Climate Change and Climate Variability in the Wine Industry
Australia’s changing climate is already impacting the agriculture sector and will continue to do so in the future. To help respond to these impacts, the Climate Services for Agriculture (CSA) platform presents readily accessible climate data, including future climate projections, relevant to specific agricultural commodities. This wine industry example aims to demonstrate the functionality and utility of the CSA for national use across a broad range of commodities. Methods and Results. The platform includes commodity-relevant climate indices designed in consultation with experts to ensure that they are as salient to producers as possible; the wine-grape specific indices include measures of growing season temperature, rainfall, extreme heat, and frost. Here, we describe the research behind the wine-grape specific indices and present sample outputs from the CSA platform for a site within a selected winegrowing region. We note the CSA platform has been developed through an extensive and continuing user engagement initiative, ensuring it meets the needs of the agriculture community as they grapple with how to make decisions based on longer term climate projections. Conclusions. Provision of past, seasonal outlook, and future climate information for Australia and for a range of important agricultural commodities can help improve on-farm planning and decision-making to respond to climate risks. The wine industry provides a leading example of how to use these data for decision-making, noting ongoing adjustments will be needed. Significance of the Study. The CSA platform brings together historical climate data, seasonal climate outlooks, and future climate projections to assist agricultural producers to better manage climate variability and climate change. It aims to nationalise this information for all major agricultural commodities in Australia. We use wine production as a demonstration case here.
Impacts of Atmosphere-Ocean Coupling on Southern Hemisphere Climate Change
Climate in the Southern Hemisphere (SH) has undergone significant changes in recent decades. These changes are closely linked to the shift of the Southern Annular Mode (SAM) towards its positive polarity, which is driven primarily by Antarctic ozone depletion. There is growing evidence that Antarctic ozone depletion has significant impacts on Southern Ocean circulation change. However, it is poorly understood whether and how ocean feedback might impact the SAM and climate change in the SH atmosphere. This outstanding science question is investigated using the Goddard Earth Observing System Coupled Atmosphere-Ocean-Chemistry Climate Model(GEOS-AOCCM).We perform ensemble simulations of the recent past (1960-2010) with and without the interactive ocean. For simulations without the interactive ocean, we use sea surface temperatures and sea ice concentrations produced by the interactive ocean simulations. The differences between these two ensemble simulations quantify the effects of atmosphere-ocean coupling. We will investigate the impacts of atmosphere-ocean coupling on stratospheric processes such as Antarctic ozone depletion and Antarctic polar vortex breakup. We will address whether ocean feedback affects Rossby wave generation in the troposphere and wave propagation into the stratosphere. Another focuson this study is to assess how ocean feedback might affect the tropospheric SAM response to Antarctic ozone depletion
Climate Change 2022: Mitigation of Climate Change. Contribution of Working Group III to the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Chapter 11
The AR5 was published in 2014. The Paris Agreement and the 17 Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) were adopted in 2015. An increasing number of countries have since announced ambitions to be carbon neutral by 2045–2060. The COVID-19 pandemic shocked the global economy in 2020 and motivated economic stimulus with demands for green recovery and concerns for economic security. All this has created a new context and a growing recognition that all industry, including the energy and emissions intensive industries, need to reach net zero GHG emissions. There is an ongoing mind shift around the opportunities to do so, with electrification and hydrogen emerging among key mitigation options as a result of renewable electricity costs falling rapidly. On the demand side there has been renewed attention to end-use demand, material efficiency, and more and better-quality recycling measures. This chapter takes its starting point in this new context and emphasizes the need for deploying innovative processes and practices in order to limit the global warming to 1.5°C or 2°C (IPCC 2018a).
A mixture of grass–legume cover crop species may ameliorate water stress in a changing climate
Climate change models predict increasing precipitation variability in the mid-latitude regions of Earth, generating a need to reduce the negative impacts of these changes on crop production. Despite considerable research on how cover crops support agriculture in a changing climate, understanding is limited of how climate change influences the growth of cover crops. We investigated the early development of two common cover crop species—crimson clover (Trifolium incarnatum) and rye (Secale cereale)—and hypothesized that growing them in the mixture would ameliorate stress from drought or waterlogging. This hypothesis was tested in a 25-day greenhouse experiment, where the two factors (species number and water stress) were fully crossed in randomized blocks, and plant responses were quantified through survival, growth rate, biomass production and root morphology. Water stress negatively influenced the early growth of these two species in contrasting ways: crimson clover was susceptible to drought while rye performed poorly under waterlogging. Per-plant biomass in rye was always greater in mixture than in monoculture, while per-plant biomass of crimson clover was greater in mixture under drought. Both species grew longer roots in mixture than in monoculture under drought, and total biomass of mixtures did not differ significantly from the more-productive monoculture (rye) in any water condition. In the face of increasingly variable precipitation, growing crimson clover and rye together has potential to ameliorate water stress, a possibility that should be further investigated in field experiments.
Differentiation strategies of soil rare and abundant microbial taxa in response to changing climatic regimes
Despite the important roles of soil microbes, especially the most diverse rare taxa in maintaining community diversity and multifunctionality, how different climate regimes alter the stability and functions of the rare microbial biosphere remains unknown. We reciprocally transplanted field soils across a latitudinal gradient to simulate climate change and sampled the soils annually after harvesting the maize over the following 6 years (from 2005 to 2011). By sequencing microbial 16S ribosomal RNA gene amplicons, we found that changing climate regimes significantly altered the composition and dynamics of soil microbial communities. A continuous succession of the rare and abundant communities was observed. Rare microbial communities were more stable under changing climatic regimes, with lower variations in temporal dynamics, and higher stability and constancy of diversity. More nitrogen cycling genes were detected in the rare members than in the abundant members, including amoA, napA, nifH, nirK, nirS, norB and nrfA. Random forest analysis and receiver operating characteristics analysis showed that rare taxa may act as potential contributors to maize yield under changing climatics. The study indicates that the taxonomically and functionally diverse rare biosphere has the potential to increase functional redundancy and enhance the ability of soil communities to counteract environmental disturbances. With ongoing global climate change, exploring the succession process and functional changes of rare taxa may be important in elucidating the ecosystem stability and multifunctionality that are mediated by microbial communities.
Impacts of climate change and climate extremes on major crops productivity in China at a global warming of 1.5 and 2.0 °C
A new temperature goal of “holding the increase in global average temperature well below 2°C above pre-industrial levels and pursuing efforts to limit the temperature increase to 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels” has been established in the Paris Agreement, which calls for an understanding of climate risk under 1.5 and 2.0°C warming scenarios. Here, we evaluated the effects of climate change on growth and productivity of three major crops (i.e. maize, wheat, rice) in China during 2106–2115 in warming scenarios of 1.5 and 2.0°C using a method of ensemble simulation with well-validated Model to capture the Crop–Weather relationship over a Large Area (MCWLA) family crop models, their 10 sets of optimal crop model parameters and 70 climate projections from four global climate models.
Addressing Coldwater Temperature Impairment in a Changing Climate
Climate change is concerning for fisheries professionals because increased water temperatures threaten coldwater habitats, which are vital to recreational and commercial fisheries and keystone species. The Clean Water Act provides a legal framework to identify and address water quality impairments including those associated with temperature. However, although this framework provides a basic strategy to identify impairments, develop total maximum daily loads, and reduce pollution, it does not explicitly consider the challenges of a changing climate in addressing water quality impairments. Clean Water Act administrators and fisheries professionals can facilitate temperature restoration planning and implementation using the Clean Water Act framework to link stakeholders to the management of coldwater resources. Stakeholder engagement and collaboration, robust local monitoring, and incorporating climate resilience into restoration planning and implementation will promote comprehensive management of temperature impairments and the effects of climate change on fisheries.