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At least 19 records

Charging-management And Infrastructure-planning (cmip) Model

CMIP model explores various charging infrastructure network designs to serve a free-floating car-sharing fleet and determine the charging downtime experienced by the fleet for each design. Development of the CMIP model had two major steps: (1) describing modeling assumptions and (2) developing an integer program (IP) that jointly optimizes decisions about locations to install DC fast chargers and EV-to-charger assignments. The CMIP model integrates an EV charging model, EV energy consumption model, and heterogeneous, real-world vehicle use data with an integer programming optimization model to identify optimal location of new charging stations and calculate vehicle downtime for charging. The CMIP model can be applied to understand: (a) the reduction of EV fleet downtime if an additional fast-charging station is added to the current infrastructure and (b) to what extent total vehicle downtime would be sensitive to additional charging infrastructure.

Roni, MohammadS↗

Progress in Simulating the Quasi–Biennial Oscillation in CMIP Models

The quasi–biennial oscillation (QBO) of the zonal mean zonal wind is the primary mode of variability in the tropical lower stratosphere. The QBO is characterized by alternating easterly westerly shear layers that descend down from ~10 to 100 hPa. The QBO is also seen in lower stratospheric tropical temperature, water vapor, and ozone and affects tropospheric variability through various teleconnections. We examine here the progress in simulating the QBO in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP) models, more specifically in CMIP3, CMIP5, and CMIP6 models. We show that the number of models that are able to simulate the QBO has increased from 0 in CMIP3, to 5 in CMIP5, to 15 in CMIP6. While the number of models with an internally generated QBO has tripled from CMIP5 to CMIP6, the fidelity of the simulation averaged over the CMIP models has not improved. We show that CMIP5 and CMIP6 models represent the QBO period and latitudinal extent quite well; however the QBO amplitude is shifted upwards relative to observations resulting in large underestimation of QBO amplitude at all levels below 20 hPa. As a result, the underestimation of QBO amplitude in the lowermost stratosphere and lack of variations downward to the tropopause and below will likely impact the quality of teleconnections seen in the current generation Earth system models.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Evaluation of Ocean Biogeochemistry and Carbon Cycling in CMIP Earth System Models With the International Ocean Model Benchmarking (IOMB) Software System

Abstract The International Ocean Model Benchmarking (IOMB) software package is a new community resource that we use here to evaluate surface and upper ocean biogeochemical variables and integrated anthropogenic carbon uptake from earth system models (ESMs) contributing to the 5th and 6th phases of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5 and CMIP6). IOMB generates graphics and tables for systematically comparing model predictions against multiple datasets. Our analysis reveals some improvement in the multi‐model mean from CMIP5 to CMIP6 for most of the variables we examined. Compared to data‐constrained estimates of ocean anthropogenic carbon uptake for the 1994–2007 period, negative biases exist for many models between 30 and 50°S. Global model estimates of anthropogenic carbon uptake for the same period do not change significantly from CMIP5 to CMIP6, with the combined ensemble mean estimate of 27.8 ± 0.5 Pg C lower than a data‐constrained estimate of 33.0 ± 4.0 Pg C. At the same time, the change in the natural carbon inventory from CMIP is estimated to be a source of 0.7 ± 0.3 Pg C, which is considerably smaller in magnitude than a data‐constrained estimate of 5.0 ± 3.0 Pg C. With chlorofluorocarbon (CFC) predictions available for several models, we demonstrate that negative anthropogenic dissolved inorganic carbon biases coincide with negative biases in CFC concentration, highlighting the importance of weak exchange between the surface and interior ocean in regulating rates of anthropogenic carbon uptake. To examine the robustness of this attribution across the CMIP models, we calculate the global vertical temperature gradient between 200 and 1,000 m as a metric for global stratification and exchange between the surface and deeper waters. We find a linear relationship between the bias of the vertical temperature gradients and the bias in global anthropogenic carbon uptake, consistent with the hypothesis that model biases in anthropogenic carbon uptake are related to biases in surface‐to‐interior exchange by physical processes.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Benchmarking performance changes in the simulation of extratropical modes of variability across CMIP generations

In this work, we evaluate extratropical modes of variability in the three most recent phases of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP3, 5, and 6) to gauge improvement of climate models over time. A suite of high-level metrics is employed to objectively evaluate how well climate models simulate the qobserved Northern Annular Mode (NAM), North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), Pacific North America pattern (PNA), Southern Annular Mode (SAM), Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), North Pacific Oscillation (NPO), and North Pacific Gyre Oscillation (NPGO). We apply a Common Basis Function (CBF) approach that projects model anomalies onto observed empirical orthogonal functions (EOFs), together with the traditional EOF approach, to CMIP Historical and AMIP models. We find simulated spatial patterns of those modes have been significantly improved in the newer models, although the skill improvement is sensitive to the mode and season considered. We identify some potential contributions to the pattern improvement of certain modes (e.g., the Southern Hemisphere jet and High-top vertical coordinate), however the performance changes are likely attributed to gradual improvement of the base climate and multiple relevant processes. Less performance improvement is evident in the mode amplitude of these modes and systematic overestimation of the mode amplitude in spring remains in the newer climate models. We find that the post-dominant season amplitude errors in atmospheric modes are not limited to coupled runs but are often already evident in AMIP simulations. This suggests that rectifying the egregious post-dominant season amplitude errors found in many models can be addressed in an atmospheric-only framework making it more tractable to address in the model development process.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

An Evaluation of the Large‐Scale Atmospheric Circulation and Its Variability in CESM2 and Other CMIP Models

Abstract The Community Earth System Model 2 (CESM2) is the latest Earth System Model developed by the National Center for Atmospheric Research in collaboration with the university community and is significantly advanced in most components compared to its predecessor (CESM1). Here, CESM2's representation of the large‐scale atmospheric circulation and its variability is assessed. Further context is providedthrough comparison to the CESM1 large ensemble and other models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5 and CMIP6). This includes an assessment of the representation of jet streams and storm tracks, stationary waves, the global divergent circulation, the annular modes, the North Atlantic Oscillation, and blocking. Compared to CESM1, CESM2 is substantially improved in the representation of the storm tracks, Northern Hemisphere (NH) stationary waves, NH winter blocking and the global divergent circulation. It ranks within the top 10% of CMIP class models in many of these features. Some features of the Southern Hemisphere (SH) circulation have degraded, such as the SH jet strength, stationary waves, and blocking, although the SH jet stream is placed at approximately the correct location. This analysis also highlights systematic deficiencies in these features across the new CMIP6 archive, such as the continued tendency for the SH jet stream to be placed too far equatorward, the North Atlantic westerlies to be too strong over Europe, the storm tracks as measured by low‐level meridional wind variance to be too weak and a lack of blocking in the North Atlantic sector.

Simpson, Isla R.↗

Evaluation of Leading Modes of Climate Variability in the CMIP Archives

The adequate simulation of internal climate variability is key for our understanding of climate as it underpins efforts to attribute historical events, predict on seasonal and decadal time scales, and isolate the effects of climate change. Here the skill of models in reproducing observed modes of climate variability is assessed, both across and within the CMIP3, CMIP5, and CMIP6 archives, in order to document model capabilities, progress across ensembles, and persisting biases. A focus is given to the well-observed tropical and extratropical modes that exhibit small intrinsic variability relative to model structural uncertainty. These include El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO), the Pacific decadal oscillation (PDO), the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), and the northern and southern annular modes (NAM and SAM). Significant improvements are identified in models’ representation of many modes. Canonical biases, which involve both amplitudes and patterns, are generally reduced across model generations. For example, biases in ENSO-related equatorial Pacific sea surface temperature, which extend too far westward, and associated atmospheric teleconnections, which are too weak, are reduced. Stronger tropical expression of the PDO in successive CMIP generations has characterized their improvement, with some CMIP6 models generating patterns that lie within the range of observed estimates. For the NAO, NAM, and SAM, pattern correlations with observations are generally higher than for other modes and slight improvements are identified across successive model generations. Finally, for ENSO and PDO spectra and extratropical modes, changes are small compared to internal variability, precluding definitive statements regarding improvement.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

input4MIPs.CMIP7.uoexeter.UOEXETER-CMIP-2-0-0

CMIP7 Forcing Datasets (input4MIPs). The dataset is available at: https://esgf-node.llnl.gov/search/input4mips/?mip_era=CMIP7&target_mip=CMIP&activity_id=input4MIPs&institution_id=uoexeter&source_id=UOEXETER-CMIP-2-0-0 This dataset Source ID: UOEXETER-CMIP-2-0-0 is part of input4MIPs under " ['aerosolProperties', 'emissions'] " category. More information about the dataset can be found at the following links: https://input4mips-controlled-vocabularies-cvs.readthedocs.io/en/latest/dataset-overviews/stratospheric-volcanic-so2-emissions-aod/ https://input4mips-controlled-vocabularies-cvs.readthedocs.io/en/stable/database-views/input4MIPs_source-id_CMIP7.html https://input4mips-controlled-vocabularies-cvs.readthedocs.io/en/stable/dataset-overviews/

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

input4MIPs.CMIP7.SOLARIS-HEPPA.SOLARIS-HEPPA-CMIP-4-6

CMIP7 Forcing Datasets (input4MIPs). The dataset is available at : https://esgf-node.ornl.gov/search/input4mips/?mip_era=CMIP7&target_mip=CMIP&activity_id=input4MIPs&institution_id=SOLARIS-HEPPA&source_id=SOLARIS-HEPPA-CMIP-4-6 This dataset Source ID: SOLARIS-HEPPA-CMIP-4-6 is part of input4MIPs under " solar " category. More information about the dataset can be found at the following links: http://solarisheppa.geomar.de/cmip7 https://input4mips-cvs.readthedocs.io/en/latest/dataset-overviews/solar/ https://input4mips-controlled-vocabularies-cvs.readthedocs.io/en/stable/database-views/input4MIPs_source-id_CMIP7.html https://input4mips-controlled-vocabularies-cvs.readthedocs.io/en/stable/dataset-overviews/

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

input4MIPs.CMIP7.DRES.DRES-CMIP-BB4CMIP7-2-0

CMIP7 Forcing Datasets (input4MIPs). The dataset is available at: https://esgf-node.llnl.gov/search/input4mips/?mip_era=CMIP7&target_mip=CMIP&activity_id=input4MIPs&institution_id=DRES&source_id=DRES-CMIP-BB4CMIP7-2-0 This dataset Source ID: DRES-CMIP-BB4CMIP7-2-0 is part of input4MIPs under " ['emissions'] " category. More information about the dataset can be found at the following links: https://www.globalfiredata.org https://input4mips-controlled-vocabularies-cvs.readthedocs.io/en/stable/database-views/input4MIPs_source-id_CMIP7.html https://input4mips-controlled-vocabularies-cvs.readthedocs.io/en/stable/dataset-overviews/

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

input4MIPs.CMIP7.PIK.PIK-CMIP-1-0-0

CMIP7 Forcing Datasets (input4MIPs). This dataset PIK-CMIP-1-0-0 is part of input4MIPs under dataset_category: "['population']". More information about the dataset can be found at the following links: https://github.com/HORIZON-COMPASS/Exposure-and-vulnerability-modelling https://input4mips-controlled-vocabularies-cvs.readthedocs.io/en/stable/database-views/input4MIPs_source-id_CMIP7.html https://input4mips-controlled-vocabularies-cvs.readthedocs.io/en/stable/dataset-overviews/ The dataset is available at: https://esgf-node.ornl.gov/search/input4mips/?mip_era=CMIP7&activity_id=input4MIPs&institution_id=PIK&source_id=PIK-CMIP-1-0-0

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

input4MIPs.CMIP7.FZJ.FZJ-CMIP-nitrogen-1-1

CMIP7 Forcing Datasets (input4MIPs). This dataset FZJ-CMIP-nitrogen-1-1 is part of input4MIPs under dataset_category: "['surfaceFluxes']". More information about the dataset can be found at the following links: https://input4mips-cvs.readthedocs.io/en/latest/dataset-overviews/nitrogen-deposition https://input4mips-controlled-vocabularies-cvs.readthedocs.io/en/stable/database-views/input4MIPs_source-id_CMIP7.html https://input4mips-controlled-vocabularies-cvs.readthedocs.io/en/stable/dataset-overviews/ The dataset is available at: https://esgf-node.ornl.gov/search/input4mips/?mip_era=CMIP7&activity_id=input4MIPs&institution_id=FZJ&source_id=FZJ-CMIP-nitrogen-1-1

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

input4MIPs.CMIP7.FZJ.FZJ-CMIP-ozone-1-2

CMIP7 Forcing Datasets (input4MIPs). This dataset FZJ-CMIP-ozone-1-2 is part of input4MIPs under dataset_category: "['ozone']". More information about the dataset can be found at the following links: https://input4mips-cvs.readthedocs.io/en/latest/dataset-overviews/ozone https://input4mips-controlled-vocabularies-cvs.readthedocs.io/en/stable/database-views/input4MIPs_source-id_CMIP7.html https://input4mips-controlled-vocabularies-cvs.readthedocs.io/en/stable/dataset-overviews/ The dataset is available at: https://esgf-node.ornl.gov/search/input4mips/?mip_era=CMIP7&activity_id=input4MIPs&institution_id=FZJ&source_id=FZJ-CMIP-ozone-1-2

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Quantifying Progress Across Different CMIP Phases With the ESMValTool

Abstract More than 40 model groups worldwide are participating in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6), providing a new and rich source of information to better understand past, present, and future climate change. Here, we use the Earth System Model Evaluation Tool (ESMValTool) to assess the performance of the CMIP6 ensemble compared to the previous generations CMIP3 and CMIP5. While CMIP5 models did not capture the observed pause in the increase in global mean surface temperature between 1998 and 2013, the historical CMIP6 simulations agree well with the observed recent temperature increase, but some models have difficulties in reproducing the observed global mean surface temperature record of the second half of the twentieth century. While systematic biases in annual mean surface temperature and precipitation remain in the CMIP6 multimodel mean, individual models and high‐resolution versions of the models show significant reductions in many long‐standing biases. Some improvements are also found in the vertical temperature, water vapor, and zonal wind speed distributions, and root‐mean‐square errors for selected fields are generally smaller with reduced intermodel spread and higher average skill in the correlation patterns relative to observations. An emerging property of the CMIP6 ensemble is a higher effective climate sensitivity with an increased range between 2.3 and 5.6 K. A possible reason for this increase in some models is improvements in cloud representation resulting in stronger shortwave cloud feedbacks than in their predecessor versions.

Bock, L.↗

Towards provision of regularly updated climate data from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project

The Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP) is a flagship of the World Climate Research Programme (WCRP). CMIP has become a recognised ‘brand’ in climate circles evolving over the last thirty years from a targeted research activity by a small number of climate modelling centres intercomparing their Earth System Model (ESM) simulations to a broad international coordinated research effort (Durack et al, 2025). CMIP is organized as a research activity leveraging funded and in-kind contributions from experts within modelling centres and the broader scientific community supported more recently by a fully-funded International Project Office. Within CMIP, Model Intercomparison Projects (MIPs) are community-designed to understand past, present and future climate. CMIP data provides a valuable resource for climate research and is routinely used to assess model representation of climate processes and test scientific hypotheses in the context of model uncertainty and (forced and internal) variability as evident from its prolific use in scientific publications1 . The impact relies on enabling infrastructure (most prominently via the Earth System Grid Federation (ESGF)), which allows sharing of simulation output, provision of the boundary conditions used in each simulation, and definition of the data standards that are essential to facilitating wide use of the data. The impact is supplemented by the wide-ranging scrutiny to which model simulations are subjected. Beyond its use in research, CMIP data is a key resource for communities producing derived climate information from downscaling and impact studies, such as the Coordinated Regional Downscaling Experiment (CORDEX; Gutowski et al., 2016) and the Intersectoral Impacts MIP (ISIMIP; Frieler et al., 2024). Government, academic and commercial entities also increasingly rely on CMIP and its downstream data for climate risk assessments and climate services (for example, Copernicus Climate Change Service and World Bank portal). This means that, although CMIP is a research activity, it increasingly serves a secondary and very relevant role as a provider of climate data – a long-recognised dichotomy (Stevens, 2024). Research and applications have distinct needs, with the former requiring flexibility and generality and the latter consistency. Here we explain how the design of the research activity has been adapted to reduce the burdens imposed by applications and how the research infrastructure might evolve to further enable scientific inquiry. We propose one possible approach to consistently providing model information and projections for applications in the future.

Environmental sciences↗

Uncertainty-informed selection of CMIP6 Earth System Model subsets for use in multisectoral and impact models

Earth system models (ESMs) and general circulation models (GCMs) are heavily used to provide inputs to sectoral impact and multisector dynamic models, which include representations of energy, water, land, economics, and their interactions. Therefore, representing the full range of model uncertainty, scenario uncertainty, and interannual variability that ensembles of these models capture is critical to the exploration of the future co-evolution of the integrated human–Earth system. The pre-eminent source of these ensembles has been the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP). With more modeling centers participating in each new CMIP phase, the size of the model archive is rapidly increasing, which can be intractable for impact modelers to effectively utilize due to computational constraints and the challenges of analyzing large datasets. In this work, we present a method to select a subset of the latest phase, CMIP6, featuring models for use as inputs to a sectoral impact or multisector dynamics models, while prioritizing preservation of the range of model uncertainty, scenario uncertainty, and interannual variability in the full CMIP6 ensemble results. This method is intended to help impact modelers select climate information from the CMIP archive efficiently for use in downstream models that require global coverage of climate information. This is particularly critical for large-ensemble experiments of multisector dynamic models that may be varying additional features beyond climate inputs in a factorial design, thus putting constraints on the number of climate simulations that can be used. We focus on temperature and precipitation outputs of CMIP6 models, as these are two of the most used variables among impact models, and many other key input variables for impacts are at least correlated with one or both of temperature and precipitation (e.g., relative humidity). Besides preserving the multi-model ensemble variance characteristics, we prioritize selecting CMIP6 models in the subset that preserve the very likely distribution of equilibrium climate sensitivity values as assessed by the latest Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) report. This approach could be applied to other output variables of climate models and, possibly when combined with emulators, offers a flexible framework for designing more efficient experiments on human-relevant climate impacts. It can also provide greater insight into the properties of existing CMIP6 models.

Snyder, Abigail C.↗

Baseline Climate Variables for Earth System Modelling

The Baseline Climate Variables for Earth System Modelling (ESM-BCVs) are defined as a list of 135 variables which have high utility for the evaluation and exploitation of climate simulations. The list reflects the most frequently used elements of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) archive. Successive phases of CMIP have supported strong results in science and substantially influence international climate policy formulation. This paper responds to both interest in exploiting CMIP data standards in a broader range of climate modelling activities and a need to achieve greater clarity about the significance and intention of variables in the CMIP Data Request. As Earth system modelling archives grow in scale and complexity, there are emerging problems associated with weak standardisation at the variable collection level. That is, there are good standards covering how specific variables should be archived, but this paper fills a gap in the standardisation of which variables should be archived. The ESM-BCV list is intended as a resource for ESM intercomparison projects (MIPs) developing requests to enable greater consistency among MIPs and as a reference for modelling centres to enhance consistency within MIPs. Provisional planning for the CMIP7 Data Request exploits the ESM-BCVs as a core element. The baseline variable list includes 98 variables which have modest or minor data volume footprints and could be generated systematically when simulations are produced and archived for exploitation by the World Climate Research Programme (WCRP) community. A further 35 variables are classed as “high volume” and are only suitable for production when the resource implications are justified.

Juckes, Martin [University of Oxford (United Kingd↗

Observations for Model Intercomparison Project (Obs4MIPs): status for CMIP6

The Observations for Model Intercomparison Project (Obs4MIPs) was initiated in 2010 to facilitate the use of observations in climate model evaluation and research, with a particular target being the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP), a major initiative of the World Climate Research Programme (WCRP). To this end, Obs4MIPs (1) targets observed variables that can be compared to CMIP model variables; (2) utilizes dataset formatting specifications and metadata requirements closely aligned with CMIP model output; (3) provides brief technical documentation for each dataset, designed for nonexperts and tailored towards relevance for model evaluation, including information on uncertainty, dataset merits, and limitations; and (4) disseminates the data through the Earth System Grid Federation (ESGF) platforms, making the observations searchable and accessible via the same portals as the model output. Taken together, these characteristics of the organization and structure of obs4MIPs should entice a more diverse community of researchers to engage in the comparison of model output with observations and to contribute to a more comprehensive evaluation of the climate models. At present, the number of obs4MIPs datasets has grown to about 80; many are undergoing updates, with another 20 or so in preparation, and more than 100 are proposed and under consideration. A partial list of current global satellite-based datasets includes humidity and temperature profiles; a wide range of cloud and aerosol observations; ocean surface wind, temperature, height, and sea ice fraction; surface and top-of-atmosphere longwave and shortwave radiation; and ozone (O 3 ), methane (CH 4 ), and carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) products. A partial list of proposed products expected to be useful in analyzing CMIP6 results includes the following: alternative products for the above quantities, additional products for ocean surface flux and chlorophyll products, a number of vegetation products (e.g., FAPAR, LAI, burned area fraction), ice sheet mass and height, carbon monoxide (CO), and nitrogen dioxide (NO 2 ). While most existing obs4MIPs datasets consist of monthly-mean gridded data over the global domain, products with higher time resolution (e.g., daily) and/or regional products are now receiving more attention. Along with an increasing number of datasets, obs4MIPs has implemented a number of capability upgrades including (1) an updated obs4MIPs data specifications document that provides additional search facets and generally improves congruence with CMIP6 specifications for model datasets, (2) a set of six easily understood indicators that help guide users as to a dataset's maturity and suitability for application, and (3) an option to supply supplemental information about a dataset beyond what can be found in the standard metadata. With the maturation of the obs4MIPs framework, the dataset inclusion process, and the dataset formatting guidelines and resources, the scope of the observations being considered is expected to grow to include gridded in situ datasets as well as datasets with a regional focus, and the ultimate intent is to judiciously expand this scope to any observation dataset that has applicability for evaluation of the types of Earth system models used in CMIP.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Systematic and objective evaluation of Earth system models: PCMDI Metrics Package (PMP) version 3

Systematic, routine, and comprehensive evaluation of Earth system models (ESMs) facilitates benchmarking improvement across model generations and identifying the strengths and weaknesses of different model configurations. By gauging the consistency between models and observations, this endeavor is becoming increasingly necessary to objectively synthesize the thousands of simulations contributed to the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP) to date. The Program for Climate Model Diagnosis and Intercomparison (PCMDI) Metrics Package (PMP) is an open-source Python software package that provides quick-look objective comparisons of ESMs with one another and with observations. The comparisons include metrics of large- to global-scale climatologies, tropical inter-annual and intra-seasonal variability modes such as the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and Madden–Julian Oscillation (MJO), extratropical modes of variability, regional monsoons, cloud radiative feedbacks, and high-frequency characteristics of simulated precipitation, including its extremes. The PMP comparison results are produced using all model simulations contributed to CMIP6 and earlier CMIP phases. An important objective of the PMP is to document the performance of ESMs participating in the recent phases of CMIP, together with providing version-controlled information for all datasets, software packages, and analysis codes being used in the evaluation process. Among other purposes, this also enables modeling groups to assess performance changes during the ESM development cycle in the context of the error distribution of the multi-model ensemble. Quantitative model evaluation provided by the PMP can assist modelers in their development priorities. In this paper, we provide an overview of the PMP, including its latest capabilities, and discuss its future direction.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗