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DOE OSTI2020

Contrasting growth responses of Qilian juniper ( Sabina przewalskii ) and Qinghai spruce ( Picea crassifolia ) to CO2 fertilization despite common water-use efficiency increases at the northeastern Qinghai–Tibetan plateau

Abstract Rising atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) may enhance tree growth and mitigate drought impacts through CO2 fertilization. However, multiple studies globally have found that rising CO2 has not translated into greater tree growth despite increases in intrinsic water-use efficiency (iWUE). The underlying mechanism discriminating between these two general responses to CO2 fertilization remains unclear. We used two species with contrasting stomatal regulation, the relatively anisohydric Qilian juniper (Sabina przewalskii) and the relatively isohydric Qinghai spruce (Picea crassifolia), to investigate the long-term tree growth and iWUE responses to climate change and elevated CO2 using tree ring widths and the associated cellulose stable carbon isotope ratios (δ13C). We observed a contrasting growth trend of juniper and spruce with juniper growth increasing while the spruce growth declined. The iWUE of both species increased significantly and with similar amplitude throughout the trees’ lifespan, though the relatively anisohydric juniper had higher iWUE than the relatively isohydric spruce throughout the period. Additionally, with rising CO2, the anisohydric juniper became less sensitive to drought, while the relatively isohydric spruce became more sensitive to drought. We hypothesized that rising CO2 benefits relatively anisohydric species more than relatively isohydric species due to greater opportunity to acquire carbon through photosynthesis despite warming and droughts. Our findings suggest the CO2 fertilization effect depends on the isohydric degree, which could be considered in future terrestrial ecosystem models.

Wang, Wenzhi↗

NASA NTRS2021

Response to Comments on “Recent global decline of CO2 fertilization effects on vegetation photosynthesis”

Our study suggests that the global CO2 fertilization effect (CFE) on vegetation photosynthesis has declined during the past four decades. The Comments suggest that the temporal inconsistency in AVHRR data and the attribution method undermine the results’ robustness. Here, we provide additional evidence that these arguments did not affect our finding and that the global decline in CFE is robust.

evapotranspiration↗

NASA NTRS2020

Causes of slowing‐down seasonal CO2 amplitude at Mauna Loa

Changing amplitude of the seasonal cycle of atmospheric CO2 (SCA) in the northern hemisphere is an emerging carbon cycle property. Mauna Loa (MLO) station (20°N, 156°W), which has the longest continuous northern hemisphere CO2 record, shows an increasing SCA before the 1980s (p < .01), followed by no significant change thereafter. We analyzed the potential driving factors of SCA slowing‐down, with an ensemble of dynamic global vegetation models (DGVMs) coupled with an atmospheric transport model. We found that slowing‐down of SCA at MLO is primarily explained by response of net biome productivity (NBP) to climate change, and by changes in atmospheric circulations. Through NBP, climate change increases SCA at MLO before the 1980s and decreases it afterwards. The effect of climate change on the slowing‐down of SCA at MLO is mainly exerted by intensified drought stress acting to offset the acceleration driven by CO2 fertilization. This challenges the view that CO2 fertilization is the dominant cause of emergent SCA trends at northern sites south of 40°N. The contribution of agricultural intensification on the deceleration of SCA at MLO was elusive according to land–atmosphere CO2 flux estimated by DGVMs and atmospheric inversions. Our results also show the necessity to adequately account for changing circulation patterns in understanding carbon cycle dynamics observed from atmospheric observations and in using these observations to benchmark DGVMs.

Mauna Loa↗

DOE OSTI2021

Assessing climate change impacts on live fuel moisture and wildfire risk using a hydrodynamic vegetation model

Abstract. Live fuel moisture content (LFMC) plays a critical role in wildfire dynamics, but little is known about responses of LFMC to multivariate climate change, e.g., warming temperature, CO2 fertilization, and altered precipitation patterns, leading to a limited prediction ability of future wildfire risks. Here, we use a hydrodynamic demographic vegetation model to estimate LFMC dynamics of chaparral shrubs, a dominant vegetation type in fire-prone southern California. We parameterize the model based on observed shrub allometry and hydraulic traits and evaluate the model's accuracy through comparisons between observed and simulated LFMC of three plant functional types (PFTs) under current climate conditions. Moreover, we estimate the number of days per year of LFMC below 79 % (which is a critical threshold for wildfire danger rating of southern California chaparral shrubs) from 1960 to 2099 for each PFT and compare the number of days below the threshold for medium and high greenhouse gas emission scenarios (RCP4.5 and 8.5). We find that climate change could lead to more days per year (5.2 %–14.8 % increase) with LFMC below 79 % between the historical (1960–1999) and future (2080–2099) periods, implying an increase in wildfire danger for chaparral shrubs in southern California. Under the high greenhouse gas emission scenario during the dry season, we find that the future LFMC reductions mainly result from a warming temperature, which leads to 9.1 %–18.6 % reduction in LFMC. Lower precipitation in the spring leads to a 6.3 %–8.1 % reduction in LFMC. The combined impacts of warming and precipitation change on fire season length are equal to the additive impacts of warming and precipitation change individually. Our results show that the CO2 fertilization will mitigate fire risk by causing a 3.5 %–4.8 % increase in LFMC. Our results suggest that multivariate climate change could cause a significant net reduction in LFMC and thus exacerbate future wildfire danger in chaparral shrub systems.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

NASA NTRS2014

Birch Stands Growth Increase in Western Siberia

Birch (Betula pendula Roth) growth within the Western Siberia forest-steppe was analyzed based on long-term (1897-2006) inventory data (height, diameter at breast height [dbh], and stand volume). Analysis of biometry parameters showed increased growth at the beginning of twenty-first century compared to similar stands (stands age = 40-60 years) at the end of nineteenth century. Mean height, dbh, and stem volume increased from 14 to 20 m, from 16 to 22 cm, and from approx. 63 to approx. 220 cu m/ha, respectively. Significant correlations were found between the stands mean height, dbh, and volume on the one hand, and vegetation period length (r(sub s) = 0.71 to 0.74), atmospheric CO2 concentration (r(sub s) = 0.71 to 0.76), and drought index (Standardized Precipitation-Evapotranspiration Index, r(sub s) = −0.33 to −0.51) on the other hand. The results obtained have revealed apparent climate-induced impacts (e.g. increase of vegetation period length and birch habitat drying due to drought increase) on the stands growth. Along with this, a high correlation of birch biometric parameters and [CO2] in ambient air indicated an effect of CO2 fertilization. Meanwhile, further drought increase may switch birch stand growth into decline and greater mortality as has already been observed within the Trans-Baikal forest-steppe ecotone.

climate-induced tree growth↗

NASA NTRS1994

Elevated CO2: Impact on diurnal patterns of photosynthesis in natural microbial ecosystems

Algae, including blue-green algae (cyanobacteria), are the major source of fixed carbon in many aquatic ecosystems. Previous work has shown that photosynthetic carbon fixation is often enhanced in the presence of additional carbon dioxide (CO2). This study was undertaken to determine if this CO2 fertilization effect extended to microbial mats, and, if so, at what times during the day might the addition of CO2 affect carbon fixation. Four microbial mats from diverse environments were selected, including mats from a hypersaline pond (area 5, Exportadora de Sal, Mexico), the marine intertidal (Lyngbya, Laguna Ojo de Liebre, Mexico), an acidic hotspring (Cyanidium, Nymph Creek, Yellowstone National Park), and an acidic stream at ambient temperature (Zygogonium, Yellowstone National Park). Carbon fixation in the absence of additional CO2 essentially followed the rising and falling sunlight levels, except that during the middle of the day there was a short dip in carbon fixation rates. The addition of CO2 profoundly enhanced carbon fixation rates during the daylight hours, including during the midday dip. Therefore, it is unlikely that the midday dip was due to photoinhibition. Surprisingly, enhancement of carbon fixation was often greatest in the early morning or late afternoon, times when carbon fixation would be most likely to be light limited.

Rothschild, L. J.↗

DOE OSTI2021

Impact of vegetation physiology and phenology on watershed hydrology in a semiarid watershed in the Pacific Northwest in a changing climate

Concurrent with changes in climate conditions, increases in atmospheric composition and transport can affect land surface processes by regulating physiological and phenological responses of plants, and consequently perturb water, carbon, and nitrogen (N) dynamics at multiple scales. Howerver, the relationships bwtween plants physiological and phenological and land surface processes in a changing climate are less well known due to the limitation of representing palnts properties in traditional hydrological models. In this study, we use the Community Land Model version 5 (CLM5) to investigate how projected changes in large scale atmospheric conditions can affect hydrologic and biogeochemical dynamics in the Upper Columbia-Priest Rapids (UCPR) watershed, a typical semi-arid watershed located in the north-western United States dominated by croplands. Six numerical experiments considering climate change, CO2 concentration, and N deposition consistent with the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) 4.5 and 8.5 are performed at 1-km resolution over the period of 2015-2099. Our results show that, compared with historical results (1985-2014), the elevated CO2 directly increases plants N uptake rates that provide additional leaf N to enhance photosynthesis by the end of 21st century (2070-2099). The higher GPP leads to changes in stomatal resistance and increased leaf area index (LAI) that affect evaporatranspiration (ET) and its components. As a result of stomatal responses to a higher CO2 concentration, ET over corn fields declines by 24.6 mm yr-1 under RCP4.5, and by 64.0 mm yr-1 under RCP8.5, respectively by the end of the century from its historical mean of 428 mm yr-1. Meanwhile, ET over soybean fields increases by 27.7 mm yr-1 under RCP4.5 and 9.98 mm yr-1 under RCP8.5 from its historical mean of 507 mm yr-1 as a result of CO2 fertilization as soybeans are able to uptake more N to increase LAI significantly. Furtherfore, the changes in physiological and phenological in corn and soybean can strongly modulate water budget terms over the watershed in response to expected changes in greenhouse gas concentrations and atmospheric composition. Additionally, increases in CO2 concentration and N deposition are beneficial for improving water use efficiency of corn and soybean, therefore lead to less water consumption per unit gram of carbon produced from these crops. Our study elucidates the need to jointly consider effects of surface climate and atmospheric composition and transport in understanding and predicting watershed hydrologic and biogeochemical responses, especially for an agricultural watershed.

Zhu, Bowen↗

DOE OSTI2019

Increasing impacts of extreme droughts on vegetation productivity under climate change

Terrestrial gross primary production (GPP) is the basis of food production and vegetation growth globally1 and plays a critical role in regulating atmospheric CO2 through its impact on ecosystem carbon balance. Even though higher CO2 concentrations in future decades can increase GPP2, low soil water availability, heat stress and disturbances associated with droughts could reduce the benefits of such CO2 fertilization. Here we analysed outputs of 13 Earth system models to show an increasingly stronger impact on GPP by extreme droughts than by mild and moderate droughts over the twenty-first century. Due to a dramatic increase in the frequency of extreme droughts, the magnitude of globally averaged reductions in GPP associated with extreme droughts was projected to be nearly tripled by the last quarter of this century (2075–2099) relative to that of the historical period (1850–1999) under both high and intermediate GHG emission scenarios. By contrast, the magnitude of GPP reduction associated with mild and moderate droughts was not projected to increase substantially. Our analysis indicates a high risk of extreme droughts to the global carbon cycle with atmospheric warming; however, this risk can be potentially mitigated by positive anomalies of GPP associated with favourable environmental conditions.

Xu, Chonggang↗

DOE OSTI2021

CO2 refixation is higher in leaves of woody species with high mesophyll and stomatal resistances to CO2 diffusion

Abstract The percentage of respiratory and photorespiratory CO2 refixed in leaves (Pr) represents part of the CO2 used in photosynthesis. The importance of Pr as well as differences between species and functional types are still not well investigated. In this study, we examine how Pr differs between six temperate and boreal woody species: Betula pendula, Quercus robur, Larix decidua, Pinus sylvestris, Picea abies and Vaccinium vitis-idaea. The study covers early and late successional species, deciduous broadleaves, deciduous conifers, evergreen conifers and evergreen broadleaves. We investigated whether some species or functional types had higher refixation percentages than others, whether leaf traits could predict higher Pr and whether these traits and their impact on Pr changed during growing seasons. Photosynthesis CO2 response (A/Ci)-curves, measured early, mid and late season, were used to estimate and compare Pr, mesophyll resistance (rm) and stomatal resistance (rs) to CO2 diffusion. Additionally, light images and transmission electron microscope images were used to approximate the fraction of intercellular airspace and cell wall thickness. We found that evergreens, especially late successional species, refixed a significantly higher amount of CO2 than the other species throughout the entire growing season. In addition, rm, rs and leaf mass per area, traits that typically are higher in evergreen species, were also significantly, positively correlated with Pr. We suggest that this is due to higher rm decreasing diffusion of (photo) respiratory CO2 out of the leaf. Cell wall thickness had a positive effect on Pr and rm, while the fraction of intercellular airspace had no effect. Both were significantly different between evergreen conifers and other types. Our findings suggest that species with a higher rm use a greater fraction of mitochondria-derived CO2, especially when stomatal conductance is low. This should be taken into account when modeling the overall CO2 fertilization effect for terrestrial ecosystems dominated by high rm species.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2024

Tropical root traits in response to global changes from 1984 to 2023

This dataset is a compilation of tropical root traits data in response to different global changes in tropical sites, considering 23.50N and S as latitudinal boundaries. The global changes considered are warming, drought, flooding, cyclones, nitrogen addition, CO2 fertilization, and fire. This dataset contains 266 root trait observations from 93 studies across 24 tropical countries. The full citation from where the data was taken from is provided in the dataset, as well as the global change, the ecosystem type, location, coordinates, the root traits measured, and the direction of their response after the global change. Additional information such as the duration of the experiment, the intensity of the global change, the soil layers from where the roots were collected, the root orders, and the type of experiment are also shown. We obtained this dataset by performing a systematic literature review on Web of Science using standardized keywords in English, Spanish, and Portuguese (Yaffar, Lugli et al. in press).

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2023

Global evaluation of terrestrial biogeochemistry in the Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM) and the role of the phosphorus cycle in the historical terrestrial carbon balance

Abstract. The importance of carbon (C)–nutrient interactions to the prediction of future C uptake has long been recognized. The Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM) land model (ELM) version 1 is one of the few land surface models that include both N and P cycling and limitation (ELMv1-CNP). Here we provide a global-scale evaluation of ELMv1-CNP using the International Land Model Benchmarking (ILAMB) system. We show that ELMv1-CNP produces realistic estimates of present-day carbon pools and fluxes. Compared to simulations with optimal P availability, simulations with ELMv1-CNP produce better performance, particularly for simulated biomass, leaf area index (LAI), and global net C balance. We also show ELMv1-CNP-simulated N and P cycling is in good agreement with data-driven estimates. We compared the ELMv1-CNP-simulated response to CO2 enrichment with meta-analysis of observations from similar manipulation experiments. We show that ELMv1-CNP is able to capture the field-observed responses for photosynthesis, growth, and LAI. We investigated the role of P limitation in the historical balance and show that global C sources and sinks are significantly affected by P limitation, as the historical CO2 fertilization effect was reduced by 20 % and C emission due to land use and land cover change was 11 % lower when P limitation was considered. Our simulations suggest that the introduction of P cycle dynamics and C–N–P coupling will likely have substantial consequences for projections of future C uptake.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

NASA NTRS2011

Sensitivity of Terrestrial Water and Energy Budgets to CO2-Physiological Forcing: An Investigation Using an Offline Land Model

Increasing concentrations of atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) influence climate by suppressing canopy transpiration in addition to its well-known greenhouse gas effect. The decrease in plant transpiration is due to changes in plant physiology (reduced opening of plant stomata). Here, we quantify such changes in water flux for various levels of CO2 concentrations using the National Center for Atmospheric Research s (NCAR) Community Land Model. We find that photosynthesis saturates after 800 ppmv (parts per million, by volume) in this model. However, unlike photosynthesis, canopy transpiration continues to decline at about 5.1% per 100 ppmv increase in CO2 levels. We also find that the associated reduction in latent heat flux is primarily compensated by increased sensible heat flux. The continued decline in canopy transpiration and subsequent increase in sensible heat flux at elevated CO2 levels implies that incremental warming associated with the physiological effect of CO2 will not abate at higher CO2 concentrations, indicating important consequences for the global water and carbon cycles from anthropogenic CO2 emissions. Keywords: CO2-physiological effect, CO2-fertilization, canopy transpiration, water cycle, runoff, climate change 1.

Gopalakrishnan, Ranjith↗

NASA NTRS2014

Climate Change Effects on Agriculture: Economic Responses to Biophysical Shocks

Agricultural production is sensitive to weather and thus directly affected by climate change. Plausible estimates of these climate change impacts require combined use of climate, crop, and economic models. Results from previous studies vary substantially due to differences in models, scenarios, and data. This paper is part of a collective effort to systematically integrate these three types of models. We focus on the economic component of the assessment, investigating how nine global economic models of agriculture represent endogenous responses to seven standardized climate change scenarios produced by two climate and five crop models. These responses include adjustments in yields, area, consumption, and international trade. We apply biophysical shocks derived from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change's representative concentration pathway with end-of-century radiative forcing of 8.5 W/m(sup 2). The mean biophysical yield effect with no incremental CO2 fertilization is a 17% reduction globally by 2050 relative to a scenario with unchanging climate. Endogenous economic responses reduce yield loss to 11%, increase area of major crops by 11%, and reduce consumption by 3%. Agricultural production, cropland area, trade, and prices show the greatest degree of variability in response to climate change, and consumption the lowest. The sources of these differences include model structure and specification; in particular, model assumptions about ease of land use conversion, intensification, and trade. This study identifies where models disagree on the relative responses to climate shocks and highlights research activities needed to improve the representation of agricultural adaptation responses to climate change.

farm crops↗

NASA NTRS2016

Similar Estimates of Temperature Impacts on Global Wheat Yield by Three Independent Methods

The potential impact of global temperature change on global crop yield has recently been assessed with different methods. Here we show that grid-based and point-based simulations and statistical regressions (from historic records), without deliberate adaptation or CO2 fertilization effects, produce similar estimates of temperature impact on wheat yields at global and national scales. With a 1 C global temperature increase, global wheat yield is projected to decline between 4.1% and 6.4%. Projected relative temperature impacts from different methods were similar for major wheat-producing countries China, India, USA and France, but less so for Russia. Point-based and grid-based simulations, and to some extent the statistical regressions, were consistent in projecting that warmer regions are likely to suffer more yield loss with increasing temperature than cooler regions. By forming a multi-method ensemble, it was possible to quantify 'method uncertainty' in addition to model uncertainty. This significantly improves confidence in estimates of climate impacts on global food security.

Climate impacts↗

NASA NTRS2017

Temperature Increase Reduces Global Yields of Major Crops in Four Independent Estimates

Wheat, rice, maize, and soybean provide two-thirds of human caloric intake. Assessing the impact of global temperature increase on production of these crops is therefore critical to maintaining global food supply, but different studies have yielded different results. Here, we investigated the impacts of temperature on yields of the four crops by compiling extensive published results from four analytical methods: global grid-based and local point-based models, statistical regressions, and field-warming experiments. Results from the different methods consistently showed negative temperature impacts on crop yield at the global scale, generally underpinned by similar impacts at country and site scales. Without CO2 fertilization, effective adaptation, and genetic improvement, each degree-Celsius increase in global mean temperature would, on average, reduce global yields of wheat by 6.0%, rice by 3.2%, maize by 7.4%, and soybean by 3.1%. Results are highly heterogeneous across crops and geographical areas, with some positive impact estimates. Multi-method analyses improved the confidence in assessments of future climate impacts on global major crops and suggest crop- and region-specific adaptation strategies to ensure food security for an increasing world population.

Zhao, Chuang↗

NASA NTRS2018

Amplification of Heat Extremes by Plant CO2 Physiological Forcing

Plants influence extreme heat events by regulating land-atmosphere water and energy exchanges. The contribution of plants to changes in future heat extremes will depend on the responses of vegetation growth and physiology to the direct and indirect effects of elevated CO2. Here we use a suite of earth system models to disentangle the radiative versus vegetation effects of elevated CO2 on heat wave characteristics. Vegetation responses to a quadrupling of CO2 increase summer heat wave occurrence by 20 days or more-30-50% of the radiative response alone-across tropical and mid-to-high latitude forests. These increases are caused by CO2 physiological forcing, which diminishes transpiration and its associated cooling effect, and reduces clouds and precipitation. In contrast to recent suggestions, our results indicate CO2-driven vegetation changes enhance future heat wave frequency and intensity in most vegetated regions despite transpiration-driven soil moisture savings and increases in aboveground biomass from CO2 fertilization.

Skinner, Christopher B.↗

NASA NTRS2014

Constraints and Potentials of Future Irrigation Water Availability on Agricultural Production Under Climate Change

Freshwater availability is relevant to almost all socioeconomic and environmental impacts of climate and demographic change and their implications for sustainability. We compare ensembles of water supply and demand projections driven by ensemble output from five global climate models. Our results suggest reasons for concern. Direct climate impacts to maize, soybean, wheat, and rice involve losses of 400–2,600 Pcal (8–43% of present-day total). Freshwater limitations in some heavily irrigated regions could necessitate reversion of 20–60 Mha of cropland from irrigated to rainfed management, and a further loss of 600–2,900 Pcal. Freshwater abundance in other regions could help ameliorate these losses, but substantial investment in infrastructure would be required. We compare ensembles of water supply and demand projections from 10 global hydrological models and six global gridded crop models. These are produced as part of the Inter-Sectoral Impacts Model Intercomparison Project, with coordination from the Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project, and driven by outputs of general circulation models run under representative concentration pathway 8.5 as part of the Fifth Coupled Model Intercomparison Project. Models project that direct climate impacts to maize, soybean, wheat, and rice involve losses of 400–1,400 Pcal (8–24% of present-day total) when CO2 fertilization effects are accounted for or 1,400–2,600 Pcal (24–43%) otherwise. Freshwater limitations in some irrigated regions (western United States; China; and West, South, and Central Asia) could necessitate the reversion of 20–60 Mha of cropland from irrigated to rainfed management by end-of-century, and a further loss of 600–2,900 Pcal of food production. In other regions (northern/eastern United States, parts of South America, much of Europe, and South East Asia) surplus water supply could in principle support a net increase in irrigation, although substantial investments in irrigation infrastructure would be required.

agriculture↗

NASA NTRS2019

Increasing Impacts of Extreme Droughts on Vegetation Productivity Under Climate Change

Terrestrial gross primary production (GPP) is the basis of vegetation growth and food production globally and plays a critical role in regulating atmospheric CO2 through its impact on ecosystem carbon balance. Even though higher CO2 concentrations in future decades can increase GPP, low soil water availability, heat stress and disturbances associated with droughts could reduce the benefits of such CO2 fertilization. Here we analysed outputs of 13 Earth system models to show an increasingly stronger impact on GPP by extreme droughts than by mild and moderate droughts over the twenty-first century. Due to a dramatic increase in the frequency of extreme droughts, the magnitude of globally averaged reductions in GPP associated with extreme droughts was projected to be nearly tripled by the last quarter of this century (2075-2099) relative to that of the historical period (1850-1999) under both high and intermediate GHG emission scenarios. By contrast, the magnitude of GPP reductions associated with mild and moderate droughts was not projected to increase substantially. Our analysis indicates a high risk of extreme droughts to the global carbon cycle with atmospheric warming; however, this risk can be potentially mitigated by positive anomalies of GPP associated with favourable environmental conditions.

Xu, Chonggang↗