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Results for “COLLISION PROBABILITY METHOD”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 19 records

All sources NASA NTRS DOE OSTI

DOE OSTI2022

Cell Dancoff-based embedded self-shielding capability for doubly heterogeneous particulate fuels in SCALE/Polaris

Polaris is a two-dimensional (2D) transport lattice physics capability in the SCALE code system for light-water reactor (LWR) analysis. SCALE/Polaris is being extended to treat doubly heterogeneous particulate fuels in LWRs with accident-tolerant fuels and prismatic high-temperature gas-cooled reactor (HTGR) fuel. Recently, a Dancoff-based Wigner-Seitz approximation capability based on the embedded self-shielding method (DWA-ESSM) was implemented into Polaris for efficient computation. A new double heterogeneity treatment capability based on DWA-ESSM in conjunction with the Hebert's collision probability method for double heterogeneity was developed and implemented for Polaris. The new capability was verified by performing benchmark calculations for the prismatic HTGR fuel compact problems with various design parameters through a code-to-code comparison between the Polaris and continuous-energy Monte Carlo results. (authors)

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗

DOE OSTI2022

Verification of the LOTUS code with C5G7 benchmark

In this study, the verification of the neutron transport code LOTUS through the well-known C5G7 benchmark is performed. LOTUS uses the current coupled collision probability method with the expansion of the flux by orthogonal polynomials (CCCPO) for the solution of the neutron transport equation. The expansion of the flux by orthogonal polynomials allows one to avoid discretization of the calculation regions and significantly decreases the simulation time. The results of the LOTUS calculations are compared with the results of the reference OpenMC Monte Carlo simulations. The results of the comparison demonstrate almost perfect agreement with Monte-Carlo for the second order of the flux expansion. Even though the results obtained in the presented study agree well with the results of reference Monte Carlo calculations, further investigations are necessary for a better understanding of the stability and limitations of the code.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

DOE OSTI2022

Particulate Fuel Modeling of MC 2 -3 using Iterative Local Spatial Self-shielding Method

We report a new spatial self-shielding method for particulate fuels has been developed based on disadvantage factors and implemented in the MC 2 -3 code. This method named the iterative local spatial self-shielding (ILSS) method considers the shadowing effect of randomly distributed particles on spatial self-shielding in particles through a homogenized composition region added outside the particle of interest at the center. The self-shielded cross sections of the central particle are determined iteratively since they are used in determining the cross sections of the homogenized composition region. The ILSS method was verified for infinite stochastic medium problems of single and multiple types of particles, VHTR unit cell problems, and HTTR assembly problems. The verification test results show that the ILSS method accurately predicts the stochastic particle shadowing effect and reaction rates in particles, whereas the regular array model and the stochastic collision probability method underpredict the particle shadowing effect and overestimate reaction rates in particles.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

NASA NTRS1991

New method for estimating low-earth-orbit collision probabilities

An unconventional but general method is described for estimating the probability of collision between an earth-orbiting spacecraft and orbital debris. This method uses a Monte Caralo simulation of the orbital motion of the target spacecraft and each discrete debris object to generate an empirical set of distances, each distance representing the separation between the spacecraft and the nearest debris object at random times. Using concepts from the asymptotic theory of extreme order statistics, an analytical density function is fitted to this set of minimum distances. From this function, it is possible to generate realistic collision estimates for the spacecraft.

Vedder, John D.↗

NASA NTRS1972

Probability of satellite collision

A method is presented for computing the probability of a collision between a particular artificial earth satellite and any one of the total population of earth satellites. The collision hazard incurred by the proposed modular Space Station is assessed using the technique presented. The results of a parametric study to determine what type of satellite orbits produce the greatest contribution to the total collision probability are presented. Collision probability for the Space Station is given as a function of Space Station altitude and inclination. Collision probability was also parameterized over miss distance and mission duration.

Mccarter, J. W.↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

A Multistep Probability of Collision Computation Algorithm

The two-dimensional probability of collision calculation method is both widely used and computationally efficient. However, Monte Carlo simulations show that this method sometimes fails to provide sufficiently accurate estimates for Earthorbiting satellites. This study presents a multistep algorithm that calculates collision probabilities for all conjunctions, regardless if affected by curvilinear trajectory or time varying covariance dynamics. The algorithm sequentially applies increasingly accurate estimation methods, but only as required for efficiency. Evaluating usage violations for the two-dimensional probability of collision method represents one of the most important steps. Extensive testing demonstrates the efficiency and reliability of the multistep algorithm.

Doyle T. Hall↗

DOE OSTI2022

New modelling capabilities in IDT

This work concerns the enhanced modelling capabilities of the discrete ordinates transport solver IDT. The novelties introduced allow for modelling unstructured geometries composed by a collection of X/Y segments and circles, and the use of reciprocity and conservation relations reduce the memory imprint as well as the computational cost of the method. IDT decomposes geometries in modular Cartesian patterns, which are the so-called Heterogeneous Cartesian Cells (HCCs), containing a chunk of the original unstructured geometries. Each HCC can be then discretized by superimposing a XY grid to refine locally the HCC. Unlike the most popular MOC, IDT performs the spatial sweeping by directional collision probabilities instead of trajectories. The sources and interface angular fluxes are expanded up to linear order. The accuracy of ray-tracing, the memory imprints together with the novel mesh refinement capabilities have been verified. A first set of preliminary results on PWR lattice problems will be presented in this paper.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

NASA NTRS1975

Calculation of rotational transition probabilities in molecular collisions - Application to N2 + N2

A computational method is proposed to obtain rotational transition probabilities in collisions between two diatomic molecules. The potential method of Rabitz and an exponential approximation are used to solve the semiclassical coupled equations without invoking any perturbational technique. The collision trajectory is determined in the classical modified-wave-number approximation. The method can treat systems involving strong interactions and provide probabilities for transitions even with a multiquantum jump. A simultaneous transition in the rotational states of both molecules, i.e., the rotational-rotational energy transfer, is taken into account. An application to the system N2 + N2 is presented.

Itikawa, Y.↗

NASA NTRS2016

Bayesian Methods for Longitudinal Trending in Probabilities of Collision

Satellites have become an integral part of modern life, supporting phone communication, television and radio broadcasting, internet access, and military activities. Indeed, it is difficult to imagine modern society without many of these technologies, especially in an age when the world is increasingly interconnected via long-distance communications. As of 2013, there were over one thousand operational satellites in orbit about Earth. About half of these active satellites are in Low-Earth Orbit (LEO, meaning an orbital period less than 225 minutes), which is where the International Space Station (ISS) conducts operations, along with other commercial missions such as earth observation and satellite telephone communications. An increasing amount of attention is being placed on protecting satellites in LEO, as the frequency of object launches and satellite fragmentation events has contributed to the proliferation of space debris, resulting in increased congestion.

Conjunction↗

DOE OSTI2022

Linear source method of characteristics in HELIOS2

The Studsvik Scandpower code HELIOS2 is a fast lattice transport code that has gained wide use for reactor fuel cycle analysis in commercial, regulatory, and research environments. It contains two transport solvers - Collision Probabilities (CP) and Method of Characteristics (MoC) - with a general geometry ability and generalized depletion for a variety of fuel types, experimental facilities, and isotope production applications. The HELIOS2 lattice code has been extended with the development of a linear source MoC option. The linear source equations are derived within the scope of the HELIOS2 general geometry and non-cyclic ray tracing. The implementation was tested for fine and coarse spatial mesh models of the 2D C5G7 MOX computational benchmark, which provides a pure and extreme test of a transport solver. The linear source yields at least comparable accuracy with reduced computational resource requirements relative to the flat-source approximation.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

NASA NTRS1974

Predicting the probability that earth-orbiting spacecraft will collide with man-made objects in space

A probabilistic approach to the problem of collisions is made possible by basing a model of the relevant characteristics of the total population on the known properties of a fraction of the total. A method of determining collision probability for objects in any two different but potentially intersecting orbits is derived. Collision probabilities for earth-orbital missions are investigated parametrically as a function of orbital characteristics and a hypothetical projection of the results to future orbital missions is discussed.

Brooks, D. R.↗

NASA NTRS1965

The sudden approximation applied to molecular problems. I - Non-reactive collisions

Sudden approximation for calculating transition probabilities for energy transfer during collisions between molecules and atoms

ATOMIC COLLISION↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Determining Appropriate Risk Remediation Thresholds from Empirical Conjunction Data Using Survival Probability Methods

Satellites sometimes maneuver before conjunctions to remediate the risk of an on-orbit collision. Many missions use probability of collision (P_c) thresholds to decide when such maneuvers should be performed. These thresholds tend to be conservative because of policies that require satellites survive their lifetimes without collision with high confidence (e.g., 99.9%). This study presents a semi-empirical method to estimate remediation P_c thresholds that satisfy such lifetime risk requirements. The formulation combines survival probability analysis with empirical conjunction histories to estimate remediation thresholds as a function of satellite size, remaining on-orbit duration, lifetime collision probability limit, collision consequence, and other parameters.

Risk Remediation↗

NASA NTRS2019

Determining Appropriate Risk Remediation Thresholds from Empirical Conjunction Data Using Survival Probability Methods

Satellites sometimes maneuver before conjunctions to remediate the risk of an on-orbit collision. Many missions use probability of collision (P(sub c)) thresholds to decide when such maneuvers should be performed. These thresholds tend to be conservative because of policies that require satellites survive their lifetimes without collision with high confidence (e.g., 99.9%). This study presents a semi-empirical method to estimate remediation P(sub c) thresholds that satisfy such lifetime risk requirements. The formulation combines survival probability analysis with empirical conjunction histories to estimate remediation thresholds as a function of satellite size, remaining on-orbit duration, lifetime collision probability limit, collision consequence, and other parameters.

Risk remediation thresholds↗

NASA NTRS1991

Vibrational relaxation and dissociation in nitrogen

Calculations of the vibrational and dissociation transition probabilities are made for N2-N2 and N2-N collisions by means of a semiclassical N-state approximation. The flaws in previous techniques are reviewed, with special attention given to the prediction of overtones. The method presented ignores the effects of molecular rotation and employs a revised extended Rydberg intermolecular potential to describe diatom-diatom and diatom-atom collisions. The collision velocities investigated exhibit probabilities of less than unity by means of the N-state method. The continuum is quantized to treat dissociation, and the collision results demonstrate probability enhancements for V-V-T transitions in both bound-bound and bound-free transitions. The technique is of particular interest for the theoretical modeling of reentry flows such as those encountered in aerobraking maneuvers.

Varghese, Philip L.↗

NASA NTRS1987

Predicting Close Satellite Encounters

Method for predicting probabilities of collisions between nominally geosynchronous satellites gives results without large computer resources. Realistically assesses possibility of collision between expired, drifting satellite and active, station-keeping satellite. Mathematical techniques in paper useful in analysis of such terrestrial risks as floods and nuclear accidents.

Mccormick, B. R.↗

NASA NTRS2019

Implementation Recommendations and Usage Boundaries for the Two-Dimensional Probability of Collision Calculation

The two-dimensional (2D) probability of collision (𝑃𝑐) estimation method relies on several assumptions that must be satisfied for accurate results. Monte Carlo analysis of ~44,000 conjunctions indicates that 2D-𝑃(sub 𝑐) pro-vides accurate estimates for most typical conjunctions, but occasionally underestimates 𝑃(sub 𝑐) significantly, indicating an assumption violation. A test to detect large-amplitude underestimation inaccuracies can be based on how much “offset-from-TCA” 2D-𝑃(sub 𝑐) values vary during a well-defined time interval bracketing closest approach. The test successfully detects all large-amplitude 2D-𝑃(sub 𝑐) underestimations found to date, but with a high false-alarm rate. The analysis also provides implementation recommendations and usage boundaries for the 2D-𝑃(sub 𝑐) method.

Hall, Doyle T.↗

NASA NTRS2019

Implementation Recommendations and Usage Boundaries for the Two-Dimensional Probability of Collision Calculation

Hall, Doyle T.↗