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At least 19 records

Benchmarking Near-Surface Winds in the HRRR Analyses Using Multisource Observations over Complex Terrain in the Southeastern United States

Wind energy plays a crucial role in sustainable power generation, yet its full potential in the southeast United States (SEUS) remains underexplored. This study advances wind resource assessment in the SEUS using existing regional modeling and multisource observations. We find that terrain complexity, influenced by orography and forest canopy, significantly impacts the accuracy of modeled wind speed. While the High-Resolution Rapid Refresh (HRRR) model effectively simulates wind profiles over flat, nonforested terrain, larger errors are produced above forest canopies, and particularly for those stands in hilly and mountainous terrain where there are no observations aloft that could be used by HRRR’s data assimilation software. Seasonal variations, e.g., changes in the leaf area index, further complicate the relationship between terrain complexity and simulation errors. Here, our findings emphasize the critical need for comprehensive wind profile measurements, extending from below the canopy to height above the canopy and through the lower planetary boundary layer, to fully quantify model performance over and near forests, and for improving wind resource assessment, planning, and management. This study provides valuable insights not only for further model development but also for future field campaign deployment with the goal of further improving our understanding of wind resources in the region.

Complex terrain↗

Wind Farm Simulation and Layout Optimization in Complex Terrain: Preprint

This work reports on incorporating complex terrain into wind farm simulations for the purpose of layout optimization. Adding complex terrain boundary conditions to NREL's medium fidelity computational fluid dynamics model, WindSE, produces significant separation, flow curvature, and speedup effects that would otherwise be difficult to capture with lower-fidelity models or a flat-terrain assumption. These flow features, in turn, can significantly impact the optimal turbine array layout. We demonstrate the impact of complex terrain on flow in both an idealized and real-world setting, and discuss modifications to the code that enable gradient-based optimization using terrain-aware adjoint gradients. Through several optimization case studies, we show that the layout optimization process takes advantage of speedup effects on terrain high points, and leverages flow curvature effects that modify wake trajectories. This yields substantial power improvements over gridded layouts, and hints at future research directions in simulation and optimization for wake trajectories in complex terrain.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

Spatiotemporal Variability of Turbulence Kinetic Energy Budgets in the Convective Boundary Layer over Both Simple and Complex Terrain

The assumption of sub-grid scale (SGS) horizontal homogeneity within a model grid cell, which forms the basis of SGS turbulence closures used by mesoscale models, becomes increasingly tenuous as grid spacing is reduced to a few kilometers or less, such as in many emerging high-resolution applications. Herein, we use the turbulence kinetic energy (TKE) budget equation to study the spatio-temporal variability in two types of terrain—complex (Columbia Basin Wind Energy Study [CBWES] site, north-eastern Oregon) and flat (ScaledWind Farm Technologies [SWiFT] site, west Texas) using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model. In each case six-nested domains (three domains each for mesoscale and large-eddy simulation [LES]) are used to downscale the horizontal grid spacing from 10 km to 10 m using the WRF model framework. The model output was used to calculate the values of the TKE budget terms in vertical and horizontal planes as well as the averages of grid cells contained in the four quadrants (a quarter area) of the LES domain. The budget terms calculated along the planes and the mean profile of budget terms show larger spatial variability at CBWES site than at the SWiFT site. The contribution of the horizontal derivative of the shear production term to the total production shear was found to be 45% and 15% of the total shear, at the CBWES and SWiFT sites, respectively, indicating that the horizontal derivatives applied in the budget equation should not be ignored in mesoscale model parameterizations, especially for cases with complex terrain with <10 km scale.

convective boundary layer↗

Wind power curve modeling in complex terrain using statistical models

The simplest power curves model wind power only as a function of the wind speed at the turbine hub height. While the latter is an essential predictor of power output, wind speed information in other parts of the vertical profile, as well as additional atmospheric variables, are also important determinants of power. The goal of this work was to determine the gain in predictive ability afforded by adding wind speed information at other heights, as well as other atmospheric variables, to the power prediction model. Using data from a wind farm with a moderately complex terrain in the Altamont Pass region in California, we trained three statistical models—a neural network, a random forest and a Gaussian process model—to predict power output from various sets of aforementioned predictors. The comparison of these predictions to the observed power data revealed that considerable improvements in prediction accuracy can be achieved both through the addition of predictors other than the hub-height wind speed and the use of statistical models. To our knowledge, the use of the Gaussian process model in this context is new, in contrast to neural networks and random forests. The advantage of this model over the other two models is that it provides a much more natural way to estimate the uncertainty associated with its predictions. In addition, this study presents one of the most comprehensive analyses to date of the relative importance of various wind power curve inputs.

Bulaevskaya, V.↗

Validation of Wind Power Plant Modeling Approaches in Complex Terrain: Preprint

The effect of terrain on wind-plant aerodynamics is often neglected due to the complex dynamics that make up terrain-atmosphere-turbine interactions and the computational effort required to adequately resolve the relevant physics. In this work, a comprehensive set of measurements (from the Wind Forecast Improvement Project 2) and two distinct modeling approaches are used to investigate the effects of topography on plant performance. The first approach consists of high-fidelity large-eddy simulations conducted for a one- hour period on a terrain-resolving mesh, and producing unsteady, heterogeneous flow that is sensitive to the local topography. The second approach makes use of a steady-state engineering model that has been modified to account for terrain effects. In situ and remote- sensing measurements upstream of the wind plant are used to prescribe initial and boundary conditions to the models, while wind turbine power measurements are used to assess the ability of the different models to capture the effects of terrain on turbine wake dynamics and therefore power production. The full paper will quantify the degree to which our high-fidelity and engineering models are able to capture realistic wind plant aerodynamics in complex terrain, and through improved understanding of the underlying physics, inform our model development efforts.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

Comparison of Measured and Numerically Simulated Turbulence Statistics in a Convective Boundary Layer Over Complex Terrain

High resolution numerical simulation can provide insight into important physical processes that occur within the planetary boundary layer (PBL). The present work employs large eddy simulation (LES) nested within the Weather Forecasting and Research (WRF) framework to simulate real conditions in the convective PBL over an area of complex terrain. A multiple nesting approach has been used to downsize the grid spacing size from 12.15 km (mesoscale) to 0.03 km (LES). To minimize artifacts in theWRF-LES solutions resulting from using an inappropriate grid spacing on the WRF-Meso domain, a careful selection of grid spacing has been conducted. The WRF-LES results have been evaluated with in situ and remote sensing observations collected during the US Department of Energy supported Columbia BasinWind Energy Study (CBWES). The comparison for the first and second order moments, turbulence spectrum, and probability density function (pdf) of wind speed show good agreement between the simulation and data. Furthermore, the WRF-LES variables show a great deal of variability in space and time caused by the complex topography in the LES domain. The WRF-LES results show that the flow structures, such as roll vortices and convective cells, over the domain vary depending on both the spatial location and time of the day. In addition to basic studies related to boundary-layer meteorology, results from these simulations can be used in other applications, such as studying the wind energy resources.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Evaluating the WFIP2 updates to the HRRR model using scanning Doppler lidar measurements in the complex terrain of the Columbia River Basin

The wind-energy (WE) industry relies on numerical weather prediction (NWP) forecast models as foundational or base models for many purposes, including wind-resource assessment and wind-power forecasting. During the Second Wind Forecast Improvement Project (WFIP2) in the Columbia River Basin of Oregon and Washington, a significant effort was made to improve NWP forecasts through focused model development, to include experimental refinements to the High Resolution Rapid Refresh (HRRR) model physics and horizontal grid spacing. In this study, the performance of an experimental version of HRRR that includes these refinements is tested against a control version, which corresponds to that of the operational HRRR run by National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration/National Centers for Environmental Protection at the outset of WFIP2. Furthermore, the effects of horizontal grid resolution were also tested by comparing wind forecasts from the HRRR (with 3-km grid spacing) with those from a finer-resolution HRRR nest with 750-m grid spacing. Model forecasts are validated against accurate wind-profile measurements by three scanning, pulsed Doppler lidars at sites separated by a total distance of 71 km. Model skill and improvements in model skill, attributable to physics refinements and improved horizontal grid resolution, varied by season, by site, and during periods of atmospheric phenomena relevant to WE. In general, model errors were the largest below 150 m above ground level (AGL). Experimental HRRR refinements tended to reduce the mean absolute error (MAE) and other error metrics for many conditions, but degradation in skill (increased MAE) was noted below 150 m AGL at the two lowest-elevation sites at night. Finer resolution was found to produce the most significant reductions in the error metrics.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

Efficacy of the Cell Perturbation Method in Large-Eddy Simulations of Boundary Layer Flow over Complex Terrain

A challenge to simulating turbulent flow in multiscale atmospheric applications is the efficient generation of resolved turbulence motions over an area of interest. One approach is to apply small perturbations to flow variables near the inflow planes of turbulence-resolving simulation domains nested within larger mesoscale domains. While this approach has been examined in numerous idealized and simple terrain cases, its efficacy in complex terrain environments has not yet been fully explored. Here, we examine the benefits of the stochastic cell perturbation method (CPM) over real complex terrain using data from the 2017 Perdigão field campaign, conducted in an approximately 2-km wide valley situated between two nearly parallel ridges. Following a typical configuration for multiscale simulation using nested domains within the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model to downscale from the mesoscale to a large-eddy simulation (LES), we apply the CPM on a domain with horizontal grid spacing of 150 m. At this resolution, spurious coherent structures are often observed under unstable atmospheric conditions with moderate mean wind speeds. Results from such an intermediate resolution grid are often nested down for finer, more detailed LES, where these spurious structures adversely affect the development of turbulence on the subsequent finer grid nest. We therefore examine the impacts of the CPM on the representation of turbulence within the nested LES domain under moderate mean flow conditions in three different stability regimes: weakly convective, strongly convective, and weakly stable. In addition, two different resolutions of the underlying terrain are used to explore the role of the complex topography itself in generating turbulent structures. We demonstrate that the CPM improves the representation of turbulence within the LES domain, relative to the use of high-resolution complex terrain alone. During the convective conditions, the CPM improves the rate at which smaller-scales of turbulence form, while also accelerating the attenuation of the spurious numerically generated roll structures near the inflow boundary. During stable conditions, the coarse mesh spacing of the intermediate LES domain used herein was insufficient to maintain resolved turbulence using CPM as the flow develops downstream, highlighting the need for yet higher resolution under even weakly stable conditions, and the importance of accurate representation of flow on intermediate LES grids.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

Evaluation of Model Summertime Boundary Layer Cloud Development over Complex Terrain in New York State

Weather forecasting over complex terrain with diverse land cover is challenging. Utilizing the high-resolution observations from New York State Mesonet (NYSM), we are able to evaluate the surface processes of the Weather Research Forecast (WRF) Model in a detailed, scale-dependent manner. Here, in the study, possible impacts of land–atmosphere interaction on surface meteorology and boundary layer cloud development are investigated with different model resolutions, land surface models (LSMs), and planetary boundary layer (PBL) physical parameterizations. The High-Resolution Rapid Refresh, version 3 (HRRR), forecasting model is used as a reference for the sensitivity evaluation. Results show that over complex terrain, the high-resolution simulations (1 km × 60 vertical levels) generally perform better compared to low-resolution (3 km × 50 levels) in both surface meteorology and cloud fields. LSMs play a more important role in surface meteorology compared to PBL schemes. The NoahMP land surface model exhibits daytime warmer and drier biases compared to the Rapid Update Cycle (RUC) due to better prediction of the Bowen ratio in RUC. The PBL schemes would affect the convective strength in the boundary layer. The Shin–Hong (SH) scale-aware scheme tends to produce the strongest convective strength in the PBL, while the ACM2 PBL scheme rarely resolved convection even at 1-km resolution. By considering the radiation effect of subgrid-scale (SGS) clouds, the Mellor–Yamada–Nakanishi–Niino eddy diffusivity mass flux (MYNN-EDMF) predicted the highest cloud coverage and lowest surface solar radiation bias. The configuration of SGS clouds in MYNN-EDMF would not only significantly reduce shortwave radiation bias, but also affect the convection behaviors through land surface–cloud–radiation interaction.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Wind Gust Characterization at Wind Turbine Relevant Heights in Moderately Complex Terrain

Improved understanding of wind gusts in complex terrain is critically important to wind engineering and specifically the wind energy industry. Observational data from 3D sonic anemometers deployed at 3 and 65 m at a site in moderately complex terrain within the northeastern United States are used to calculate 10 descriptors of wind gusts and to determine the parent distributions that best describe these parameters. It is shown that the parent distributions exhibit consistency across different descriptors of the gust climate. Specifically, the parameters that describe the gust intensity (gust amplitude, rise magnitude, and lapse magnitude; i.e., properties that have units of length per time) fit the two-parameter Weibull distribution, those that are unitless ratios (gust factor and peak factor) are described by log-logistic distributions, and all other properties (peak gust, rise and lapse times, gust asymmetric factor, and gust length scale) are lognormally distributed. It is also shown that gust factors scale with turbulence intensity, but gusts are distinguishable in power spectra of the longitudinal wind component (i.e., they have demonstrably different length scales than the average eddy length scale). Gust periods at the lower measurement height (3 m) are consistent with shear production, whereas at 65 m they are not. At this site, there is only a weak directional dependence of gust properties on site terrain and land cover variability along sectorial transects, but large gust length scales and gust factors are more likely to be observed in unstable atmospheric conditions.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

Crossing Multiple Gray Zones in the Transition from Mesoscale to Microscale Simulation over Complex Terrain

This review paper explores the field of mesoscale to microscale modeling over complex terrain as it traverses multiple so-called gray zones. In an attempt to bridge the gap between previous large-scale and small-scale modeling efforts, atmospheric simulations are being run at an unprecedented range of resolutions. The gray zone is the range of grid resolutions where particular features are neither subgrid nor fully resolved, but rather are partially resolved. The definition of a gray zone depends strongly on the feature being represented and its relationship to the model resolution. This paper explores three gray zones relevant to simulations over complex terrain: turbulence, convection, and topography. Taken together, these may be referred to as the gray continuum. The focus is on horizontal grid resolutions from ∼10 km to ∼10 m. In each case, the challenges are presented together with recent progress in the literature. A common theme is to address cross-scale interaction and scale-awareness in parameterization schemes. How numerical models are designed to cross these gray zones is critical to complex terrain applications in numerical weather prediction, wind resource forecasting, and regional climate modeling, among others.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Characterizing wind gusts in complex terrain

Abstract. Wind gusts are a key driver of aerodynamic loading, especially for tall structures such a bridges and wind turbines. However, gust characteristics in complex terrain are not well understood and common approximations used to describe wind gust behavior may not be appropriate at heights relevant to wind turbines and other structures. Data collected in the Perdigão experiment are analyzed herein to provide a foundation for improved wind gust characterization and process-level understanding of flow intermittency in complex terrain. High-resolution observations from sonic anemometers and vertically pointing Doppler lidars are used to conduct a detailed study of gust characteristics with a specific focus on the parent distributions of nine gust parameters (that describe velocity, time, and length scales), their joint distributions, height variation, and coherence in the vertical and horizontal planes. Best-fit distributional forms for varying gust properties show good agreement with those from previous experiments in moderately complex terrain but generate nonconservative estimates of the gust properties that are of key importance to structural loading. Probability distributions of gust magnitude derived from vertically pointing Doppler lidars exhibit good agreement with estimates from sonic anemometers despite differences arising from volumetric averaging and the terrain complexity. Wind speed coherence functions during gusty periods (which are important to structural wind loading) are similar to less complex sites for small vertical displacements (10 to 40 m), but do not exhibit an exponential form for larger horizontal displacements (800 to 1500 m).

Letson, Frederick (ORCID:0000000192750359)↗

Large Eddy Simulations of Turbulent and Buoyant Flows in Urban and Complex Terrain Areas Using the Aeolus Model

Fast and accurate predictions of the flow and transport of materials in urban and complex terrain areas are challenging because of the heterogeneity of buildings and land features of different shapes and sizes connected by canyons and channels, which results in complex patterns of turbulence that can enhance material concentrations in certain regions. To address this challenge, we have developed an efficient three-dimensional computational fluid dynamics (CFD) code called Aeolus that is based on first principles for predicting transport and dispersion of materials in complex terrain and urban areas. The model can be run in a very efficient Reynolds average Navier–Stokes (RANS) mode or a detailed large eddy simulation (LES) mode. The RANS version of Aeolus was previously validated against field data for tracer gas and radiological dispersal releases. As a part of this work, we have validated the Aeolus model in LES mode against two different sets of data: (1) turbulence quantities measured in complex terrain at Askervein Hill; and (2) wind and tracer data from the Joint Urban 2003 field campaign for urban topography. As a third set-up, we have applied Aeolus to simulate cloud rise dynamics for buoyant plumes from high-temperature explosions. For all three cases, Aeolus LES predictions compare well to observations and other models. These results indicate that Aeolus LES can be used to accurately simulate turbulent flow and transport for a wide range of applications and scales.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Large-Eddy Simulation over Complex Terrain Using an Improved Immersed Boundary Method in the Weather Research and Forecasting Model

Abstract The Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model is increasingly being used for higher-resolution atmospheric simulations over complex terrain. With increased resolution, resolved terrain slopes become steeper, and the native terrain-following coordinates used in WRF result in numerical errors and instability. The immersed boundary method (IBM) uses a nonconformal grid with the terrain surface represented through interpolated forcing terms. Lundquist et al.’s WRF-IBM implementation eliminates the limitations of WRF’s terrain-following coordinate and was previously validated with a no-slip boundary condition for urban simulations and idealized terrain. This paper describes the implementation of a log-law boundary condition into WRF-IBM to extend its applicability to general atmospheric complex terrain simulations. The implementation of the improved WRF-IBM boundary condition is validated for neutral flow over flat terrain and the complex terrain cases of Askervein Hill, Scotland, and Bolund Hill, Denmark. First, comparisons are made to similarity theory and standard WRF results for the flat terrain case. Then, simulations of flow over the moderately sloped Askervein Hill are used to demonstrate agreement between the IBM and terrain-following WRF results, as well as agreement with observations. Finally, Bolund Hill simulations show that WRF-IBM can handle steep topography (standard WRF fails) and compares well to observations. Overall, the new WRF-IBM boundary condition shows improved performance, though the leeside representation of the flow can be potentially further improved.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Mesoscale to Microscale Simulations over Complex Terrain with the Immersed Boundary Method in the Weather Research and Forecasting Model

Improvements to the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model are made to enable multiscale simulations over highly complex terrain with dynamically downscaled boundary conditions from the mesoscale to the microscale. Over steep terrain, the WRF Model develops numerical errors that are due to grid deformation of the terrain-following coordinates. An alternative coordinate system, the immersed boundary method (IBM), has been implemented into WRF, allowing for simulations over highly complex terrain; however, the new coordinate system precluded nesting within mesoscale simulations using WRF’s native terrain-following coordinates. Here, the immersed boundary method and WRF’s grid-nesting framework are modified to seamlessly work together. This improved framework for the first time allows for large-eddy simulation over complex (urban) terrain with IBM to be nested within a typical mesoscale WRF simulation. Simulations of the Joint Urban 2003 field campaign in Oklahoma City, Oklahoma, are performed using a multiscale five-domain nested configuration, spanning horizontal grid resolutions from 6 km to 2 m. These are compared with microscale-only simulations with idealized lateral boundary conditions and with observations of wind speed/direction and SF 6 concentrations from a controlled release from intensive observation period 3. The multiscale simulation, which is configured independent of local observations, shows similar model skill predicting wind speed/direction and improved skill predicting SF 6 concentrations when compared with the idealized simulations, which require use of observations to set mean flow conditions. Use of this improved multiscale framework shows promise for enabling large-eddy simulation over highly complex terrain with dynamically downscaled boundary conditions from mesoscale models.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Investigation of model parameters for high-resolution wind energy forecasting: case studies over simple and complex terrain

We report that wind power forecasting, turbine micrositing, and turbine design require high-resolution simulations of atmospheric flow. Case studies at two West Coast North American wind farms, one with simple and one with complex terrain, are explored using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model. Both synoptically and locally driven events that include some ramping are considered. The performance of the model with different grid nesting configurations, turbulence closures, and grid resolutions is investigated through comparisons with observation data. For the simple terrain site, no significant improvement in the simulation results is found when using higher resolution. In contrast, for the complex terrain site, there is significant improvement when using higher resolution, but only during the locally driven event. This suggests the possibility that computational resources could be spared under certain conditions, for example when the topography is adequately resolved at coarser resolutions. Physical parameters such as soil moisture have a very large effect, but mostly for the locally forced events for both simple and complex terrain. The effect of the PBL scheme choice varies significantly depending on the meteorological forcing and terrain. On average, prognostic TKE equation schemes perform better than non-local eddy viscosity schemes.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

Mapping tree height in complex terrain of northern China using ultra-high-resolution images

Tree height is a key parameter for estimating forest biomass and carbon sequestration. In recent years, notable progress has been made in mapping tree height using satellite imagery. However, existing tree height products show low accuracy in mountainous and complex terrains, and few studies typically addressed tree height estimations in mountain areas. This study examines the Mentougou district of Beijing, China, characterized by complex terrain and mountainous landscapes. We analyzed two methods for estimating tree height: one using only spectral features and another combining spectral features with topographic factors (elevation, slope, aspect). We used 3-m resolution PlanetScope 8-band multispectral imagery, with 710 field-measured individual tree heights averaged to obtain 471 pixel-level tree height values as ground-truth, to develop tree height prediction models using eXtreme Gradient Boosting (XGBoost), Random Forest (RF), and Gradient Boosting Machine (GBM) models. The results show that the XGBoost model consistently presented the highest accuracy for both methods evaluated. Specifically, the XGBoost model that combined spectral data with elevation and slope variables with an R² of 0.75 and an RMSE of 2.69 m. Using the XGBoost model, we generated the tree height map for the Mentougou area at 3 m resolution, showing tree heights ranging from 0.5 to 30.4 m, and the model’s prediction error standard deviations ranged from 2.50 to 4.71 m, indicating reliable performance across varied terrain. Additionally, we compared and evaluated the global tree height products, identifying limitations in the accuracy within complex terrains. This study demonstrates the potential for accurately predicting tree heights by combining high-resolution multispectral satellites with a terrain factor modeling approach.

Complex terrain↗