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At least 19 records
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS2009

Sunspot Activity Near Cycle Minimum and What it Might Suggest for Cycle 24, the Next Sunspot Cycle

In late 2008, 12-month moving averages of sunspot number, number of spotless days, number of groups, area of sunspots, and area per group were reflective of sunspot cycle minimum conditions for cycle 24, these values being of or near record value. The first spotless day occurred in January 2004 and the first new-cycle, high-latitude spot was reported in January 2008, although old-cycle, low-latitude spots have continued to be seen through April 2009, yielding an overlap of old and new cycle spots of at least 16 mo. New-cycle spots first became dominant over old-cycle spots in September 2008. The minimum value of the weighted mean latitude of sunspots occurred in May 2007, measuring 6.6 deg, and the minimum value of the highest-latitude spot followed in June 2007, measuring 11.7 deg. A cycle length of at least 150 mo is inferred for cycle 23, making it the longest cycle of the modern era. Based on both the maximum-minimum and amplitude-period relationships, cycle 24 is expected to be only of average to below-average size, peaking probably in late 2012 to early 2013, unless it proves to be a statistical outlier.

Wilson, Robert M.↗
NASA NTRS1972

An investigation of strain cycling behavior of 7075-T6 aluminum under combined state of strain: The effects of out-of-phase, biaxial strain cycling on low cycle fatigue

The effect of out-of-phase strain cycling on the low cycle fatigue of biaxially loaded specimens is discussed. A method to apply phase angles between two strains imposed in two different directions was developed. The data and the proposed theoretical analysis are part of a research program on biaxial strain cycling effect on fatigue life of structural materials.

Zamrik, S. Y.↗
NASA NTRS1996

On the Importance of Cycle Minimum in Sunspot Cycle Prediction

The characteristics of the minima between sunspot cycles are found to provide important information for predicting the amplitude and timing of the following cycle. For example, the time of the occurrence of sunspot minimum sets the length of the previous cycle, which is correlated by the amplitude-period effect to the amplitude of the next cycle, with cycles of shorter (longer) than average length usually being followed by cycles of larger (smaller) than average size (true for 16 of 21 sunspot cycles). Likewise, the size of the minimum at cycle onset is correlated with the size of the cycle's maximum amplitude, with cycles of larger (smaller) than average size minima usually being associated with larger (smaller) than average size maxima (true for 16 of 22 sunspot cycles). Also, it was found that the size of the previous cycle's minimum and maximum relates to the size of the following cycle's minimum and maximum with an even-odd cycle number dependency. The latter effect suggests that cycle 23 will have a minimum and maximum amplitude probably larger than average in size (in particular, minimum smoothed sunspot number Rm = 12.3 +/- 7.5 and maximum smoothed sunspot number RM = 198.8 +/- 36.5, at the 95-percent level of confidence), further suggesting (by the Waldmeier effect) that it will have a faster than average rise to maximum (fast-rising cycles have ascent durations of about 41 +/- 7 months). Thus, if, as expected, onset for cycle 23 will be December 1996 +/- 3 months, based on smoothed sunspot number, then the length of cycle 22 will be about 123 +/- 3 months, inferring that it is a short-period cycle and that cycle 23 maximum amplitude probably will be larger than average in size (from the amplitude-period effect), having an RM of about 133 +/- 39 (based on the usual +/- 30 percent spread that has been seen between observed and predicted values), with maximum amplitude occurrence likely sometime between July 1999 and October 2000.

Wilson, Robert M.↗
NASA NTRS1998

Estimating the Size and Timing of Maximum Amplitude for Cycle 23 from Its Early Cycle Behavior

On the basis of the lowest observed smoothed monthly mean sunspot number, cycle 23 appears to have conventionally begun in May 1996, in conjunction with the first appearance of a new cycle, high-latitude spot-group. Such behavior, however, is considered rather unusual, since, previously (based upon the data- available cycles 12-22), the first appearance of a new cycle, high-latitude spot- group has always preceded conventional onset by at least 3 months. Furthermore, accepting May 1996 as the official start for cycle 23 poses a dilemma regarding its projected size and timing of maximum amplitude. Specifically, from the max-min and amplitude-period relationships we infer that cycle 23 should be above average in size and a fast riser, with maximum amplitude occurring before May 2000 (being in agreement with projections for cycle 23 based on precursor information), yet from its initial languid rate of rise (during the first 6 months of the cycle) we infer that it should be below average in size and a slow riser, with maximum amplitude occurring after May 2000. The dilemma vanishes, however, when we use a slightly later-occurring onset. For example, using August 1996, a date associated with a local secondary minimum prior to the rapid rise that began shortly thereafter (in early 1997), we infer that cycle 23's rate of rise is above that for the mean of cycles 1-22, the mean of cycles 10-22 (the modern era cycles), the mean of the modern era'fast risers,' and the largest of the modern era 'slow risers' (i.e., cycle 20), thereby, suggesting that cycle 23 will be both fast-rising and above average in size, peaking before August 2000. Additionally, presuming cycle 23 to be a well- behaved fast-rising cycle (regardless of whichever onset date is used), we also infer that its maximum amplitude likely will measure about 144.0 q+/- 28.8 (from the general behavior found for the bulk of modern era fast risers; i.e., 5 of 7 have had their maximum amplitude to lie within 20% of the mean curve for modern era fast risers). It is apparent, then, that sunspot number growth during 1998 will prove crucial for correctly establishing the size and shape of cycle 23.

Wilson, Robert M.↗
NASA NTRS1996

Prelude to Cycle 23: The Case for a Fast-Rising, Large Amplitude Cycle

For the common data-available interval of cycles 12 to 22, we show that annual averages of sunspot number for minimum years (R(min)) and maximum years (R(max)) and of the minimum value of the aa geomagnetic index in the vicinity of sunspot minimum (aa(min)) are consistent with the notion that each has embedded within its respective record a long-term, linear, secular increase. Extrapolating each of these fits to cycle 23, we infer that it will have R(min) = 12.7 +/- 5.7, R(max) = 176.7 +/- 61.8, and aa(min) = 21.0 +/- 5.0 (at the 95-percent level of confidence), suggesting that cycle 23 will have R(min) greater than 7.0, R(max) greater than 114.9, and aa(min) greater than 16.0 (at the 97.5-percent level of confidence). Such values imply that cycle 23 will be larger than average in size and, consequently (by the Waidmeier effect), will be a fast riser. We also infer from the R(max) and aa(min) records the existence of an even- odd cycle effect, one in which the odd-following cycle is numerically larger in value than the even-leading cycle. For cycle 23, the even-odd cycle effect suggests that R(max) greater than 157.6 and aa(min) greater than 19.0, values that were recorded for cycle 22, the even-leading cycle of the current even-odd cycle pair (cycles 22 and 23). For 1995, the annual average of the aa index measured about 22, while for sunspot number, it was about 18. Because aa(min) usually lags R(min) by 1 year (true for 8 of 11 cycles) and 1996 seems destined to be the year of R(min) for cycle 23, it may be that aa(min) will occur in 1997, although it could occur in 1996 in conjunction with R(min) (true for 3 of 11 cycles). Because of this ambiguity in determining aa(min), no formal prediction based on the correlation of R(max) against aa(min), having r = 0.90, or of R(max) against the combined effects of R(min) and aa(min)-the bivariate technique-having r = 0.99, is possible until 1997, at the earliest.

Wilson, Robert M.↗
NASA NTRS1992

NLS cycle 1 and NLS 2 base heating technical notes. Appendix 3: Preliminary cycle 1 NLS base heating environments. Cycle 1 NLS base heating environments. NLS 2 650K STME base heating environments

A preliminary analysis of National Launch System ascent plume induced base heating environments has been completed to support the Induced Environments Panel's objective to assist in maturing the NLS vehicle (1.5 stage and heavy launch lift vehicle) design. Environments during ascent have been determined from this analysis for a few selected locations on the engine nozzles and base heat shield for both vehicles. The environments reflect early summer 1991 configurations and performance data and conservative methodology. A more complete and thorough analysis is under way to update these environments for the cycle 1 review in January 1992.

Bender, Robert L.↗
DOE OSTI2025

Voltage cycling as a dynamic operation mode for high temperature electrolysis solid oxide cells

Solid Oxide Electrolysis Cells (SOECs) have emerged as a promising technology for the efficient production of H2 via high-temperature electrolysis. However, power input from dynamic energy sources remains a significant challenge for their long-term stability. It is important to analyze the tolerance of cells under dynamic operation conditions. This study focuses on evaluating the impact of voltage cycling on the performance and durability of electrode-supported SOECs. We explore the operational limits and degradation mechanisms of SOECs subjected to various voltage conditions and find that the cells have high tolerance for dynamic voltage. Voltage cycling between 1.3 V and 1.5 V for 9000 cycles does not damage the cell. Conversely, cycling to higher voltages (≥1.7 V) results in accelerated degradation. Advanced characterization is used to screen for various degradation modes post operation. Within the oxygen electrode, XRD and STEM EDS find compositional and phase evolution in all voltage cycled samples including increased decomposition of the air electrode resulting in cation migration. Microstructural analysis of the fuel electrode from nano-CT data shows minimal change throughout the sample set and no evidence of Ni migration, indicating the fuel electrode is stable and not impacted by cycling to higher voltages within the timeframe studied.

Zhu, Zhikuan↗
NASA NTRS1987

On 'Bimodality of the solar cycle' and the duration of cycle 21

Data from the well-observed cycles 8-20 are used to study the duration of cycle 21 and the bimodality of the solar cycle which is clearly seen in the scatter diagrams of descent versus ascent durations. A linear fit for long-period cycles suggests that cycle 21 will have a 141-month cycle duration. Like cycle 11, cycle 21 is found to occur on the downward envelope of the sunspot number curve, yet to be associated with an upward first difference in amplitude. Similarities between the two cycles suggest that cycle 21 may also have an extended tail of sustained, low smoothed sunspot number, with the cycle 22 minimum occurring either in late 1987 or early 1988.

Wilson, Robert M.↗
NASA NTRS2004

An Improved Solar Cycle Statistical Model for the Projection of Near Future Sunspot Cycles

Since the current solar cycle 23 has progressed near the end of the cycle and accurate solar minimum and maximum occurrences have been defined, a statistical model based on the odd-even behavior of historical sunspot cycles was reexamined. Separate calculations of activity levels were made for the rising and declining phases in solar cycle 23, which resulted in improved projection of sunspots in the remainder of cycle 23. Because a fundamental understanding of the transition from cycle to cycle has not been developed, at this time it is assumed for projection purposes that solar cycle 24 will continue at the same activity level in the declining phase of cycle 23. Projection errors in solar cycle 24 can be corrected as the cycle progresses and observations become available because this model is shown to be self-correcting.

Kim, Myung-Hee Y.↗
NASA NTRS2009

Meridional Flow Variations Over Three Solar Cycles - What Happened in Cycle 23?

The meridional flow speed determines the strength of the Sun s polar fields in both surface flux transport models and in flux transport dynamos. The polar fields produced during cycle 23 were half as strong as those produced in the previous two cycles. Helioseismic measurements of the meridional flow over the rising phase of cycle 23 indicated a decrease in flow velocity. This observation was used in flux transport dynamo models to predict a delayed start for cycle 24 and was consistent with weak polar fields and a slower equatorward drift of the active latitudes during cycle 23. On the other hand, the surface flux transport models require a faster meridional flow to produce the weak polar fields. We have begun measurements of the surface meridional flow by tracking the motions of weak (outside active regions) magnetic field elements in magnetograms from SOHO/MDI over cycle 23 and from NSO/Kitt Peak over cycles 21 to 23. We confirm the slowdown of the meridional flow over the rising phase of cycle 23 but find that the flow speed returned to its previous level during the declining phase of cycle 23. Furthermore, this appears to be a normal feature of the meridional flow during sunspot cycles. The flow is fast at minima and slow at maxima. The lack of a significantly different meridional flow during cycle 23 is very problematic for both surface flux transport models and flux transport dynamos.

Hathaway, David H.↗
DOE OSTI2025

Multi-cycle reload analysis of a long cycle gas-cooled fast modular reactor

There is currently significant interest in deploying HALEU-fueled fast reactors, including the General Atomics (GA) Fast Modular Reactor (FMR). Such reactors can achieve very long fuel cycles, but with multi-batch loading will take decades to reach equilibrium. This motivates design and analysis of both the initial core and multi-cycle reload, which is typically performed using fast-running, deterministic fast reactor codes such as the Argonne Reactor Computation (ARC) codes. In this paper, multicycle reload of the GA FMR is analyzed using the ARC codes. The GA FMR utilizes 19.75 % enriched fuel in a 16 year cycle with a three-batch strategy, with twice-burned fuel placed on the core periphery. The GA FMR has a softened neutron spectrum due to reflecting elements in the core, so the neutronic solution is first benchmarked against the OpenMC Monte Carlo code. Discrepancy on k eff is 400–600 pcm, likely due to the softened neutron spectrum, heterogeneous fuel assembly design and central reflector. However, the rms discrepancy on the assembly power distribution is only 0.6 %, despite the presence of the central reflector. A reload strategy is devised for the first three cycles of such a reactor, ultimately spanning the first 45–48 years of its operation. The fresh core uses 19.75 %, 19.25 % and 16.75 % enriched fuel in place of fresh, once-burned and twice-burned and is then subsequently refueled with only 19.75 % enriched fuel. The cycle length is varied over 3 cycles of operation to balance fuel utilization and reactor availability, specifically with use of an extended 18-year Cycle 1, followed by a shortened 11-year Cycle 2. Cycle 3 is close to the target 16-year length. Finally, placing twice burned assemblies next to the GA FMR central reflector can reduce power peaking by 3 %, at the expense of slightly reducing the cycle length.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗
NASA NTRS1988

KOH concentration effect on cycle life of nickel-hydrogen cells. III - Cycle life test

A cycle life test of Ni/H2 cells containing electrolytes of various KOH concentrations and a sintered type nickel electrode was carried out at 23 C using a 45 min accelerated low earth orbit (LEO) cycle regime at 80 percent depth of discharge. One of three cells containing 26 percent KOH has achieved over 28,000 cycles, and the other two 19,000 cycles, without a sign of failure. Two other cells containing 31 percent KOH electrolyte, which is the concentration presently used in aerospace cells, failed after 2,979 and 3,620 cycles. This result indicates that the cycle life of the present type of Ni/H2 cells may be extended by a factor of 5 to 10 simply by lowering the KOH concentration. Long cycle life of a Ni/H2 battery at high depth-of-discharge operation is desired, particularly for an LEO spacecraft application. Typically, battery life of about 30,000 cycles is required for a five year mission in an LEO. Such a cycle life with presently available cells can be assured only at a very low depth-of-discharge operation. Results of testing already show that the cycle life of an Ni/H2 cell is tremendously improved by simply using an electrolyte of low KOH concentration.

Lim, H. S.↗
NASA NTRS1985

Interaction of High-cycle and Low-cycle Fatigue of Haynes 188 Alloy at 1400 F Deg

The interaction of low-cycle fatigue (LCF) and high-cycle fatigue (HCF) was evaluated at the NASA Lewis Research Center on Haynes 188 alloy at 1400 F. Completely reversed, axial-load, strain-controlled fatigue tests were performed to determine the baseline data for this study. Additional specimens for interaction tests were cycled first at a high strain range for various small portions of expected LCF life followed by a step change to a low strain range to failure in HCF. Failure was defined as complete specimen separation. The resultant lives varied between 10 and 5000 cycles for the low-cycle fatigue tests and between 4500 and 3 million for the high-cycle fatigue tests. For the interaction tests the low-cycle-life portion ranged from 30 and 1000 applied cycles while the high-frequency life ranged from 300 and 300,000 cycles to failure. The step change results showed a significant nonlinear interaction in expected life. Application of a small part of the LCF life drastically decreased the available HCF life as compared with what would have been expected by the classical linear damage rule (LDR).

Peter T Bizon↗
NASA NTRS1998

Comment on the Predicted Size of Cycle 23 Based on the Inferred Three-Cycle Quasi-Periodicity of the Planetary Index Ap

Recently, Ahluwalia [1998] reviewed the solar and geomagnetic data for the last 6 decades and remarked that these data "indicate the existence of a three-solar-activity-cycle quasi-periodicity in them." Futhermore, on the basis of this inferred quasi-periodicity, he asserted that cycle 23 represents the initial cycle in a new 3-cycle string, implying that it "will be more modest (a la cycle 17) with an annual mean sunspot number count of 119.3 +/- 30 at the maximum," a prediction that is considerably below the consensus prediction of 160 +/- 30 by Joselyn et al. [1997] and of similar predictions by others based on a variety of predictive techniques. Several major sticking points of Ahluwalia's presentation, however, must be redressed, and these issues form the basis of this comment. In particular, it is shown that Ahluwalia used inappropriate values of the Ap index in his analysis, that the inferred 3-cycle relationship which Ahluwalia claims for both Ap and SSN does not exist for the previous 6-cycle interval (prior to cycle 17) for SSN, that his inferred fit is only of marginal statistical significance (having r = 0.81), and that two alternative precursor fits (both with r = 0.96 or greater) exist which strongly suggest that R max for cycle 23 will be much larger than forecast by Ahluwalia (namely, about 168-187). Thus, caution must be exercised in accepting Ahluwalia's findings.

Hathaway, David H.↗
NASA NTRS1999

Comment on "The Predicted Size of Cycle 23 Based on the Inferred three-cycle Quasiperiodicity of the Planetary Index Ap"

Recently, Ahluwalia reviewed the solar and geomagnetic data for the last 6 decades and remarked that these data "indicate the existence of a three-solar-activity-cycle quasiperiodicity in them." Furthermore, on the basis of this inferred quasiperiodicity, he asserted that cycle 23 represents the initial cycle in a new three-cycle string, implying that it "will be more modest (a la cycle 17) with an annual mean sunspot number count of 119.3 +/- 30 at the maximum", a prediction that is considerably below the consensus prediction of 160 +/- 30 by Joselin et al. and of similar predictions by others based on a variety of predictive techniques. Several major sticking points of Ahluwalia's presentation, however, must be readdressed, and these issues form the basis of this comment. First, Ahluwalia appears to have based his analysis on a data set of Ap index values that is erroneous. For example, he depicts for the interval of 1932-1997 the variation of the Ap index in terms of annual averages, contrasting them against annual averages of sunspot number (SSN), and he lists for cycles 17-23 the minimum and maximum value of each, as well as the years in which they occur and a quantity which he calls "Amplitude" (defined as the numeric difference between the maximum and minimum values). In particular, he identifies the minimum Ap index (i.e., the minimum value of the Ap index in the vicinity of sunspot cycle minimum, which usually occurs in the year following sunspot minimum and which will be called hereafter, simply, Ap min) and the year in which it occur for cycles 17 - 23 respectively.

Wilson, Robert M.↗
NASA NTRS2011

An Estimate of the Size and Shape of Sunspot Cycle 24 Based on its Early Cycle Behavior using the Hathaway-Wilson-Reichmann Shape-Fitting Function

On the basis of 12-month moving averages (12-mma) of monthly mean sunspot number (R), sunspot cycle 24 had its minimum amplitude (Rm = 1.7) in December 2008. At 12 mo past minimum, R measured 8.3, and at 18 mo past minimum, it measured 16.4. Thus far, the maximum month-to-month rate of rise in 12-mma values of monthly mean sunspot number (AR(t) max) has been 1.7, having occurred at elapsed times past minimum amplitude (t) of 14 and 15 mo. Compared to other sunspot cycles of the modern era, cycle 24?s Rm and AR(t) max (as observed so far) are the smallest on record, suggesting that it likely will be a slow-rising, long-period sunspot cycle of below average maximum amplitude (RM). Supporting this view is the now observed relative strength of cycle 24?s geomagnetic minimum amplitude as measured using the 12-mma value of the aa-geomagnetic index (aam = 8.4), which also is the smallest on record, having occurred at t equals 8 and 9 mo. From the method of Ohl (the inferred preferential association between RM and aam), one predicts RM = 55 +/- 17 (the ?1 se prediction interval) for cycle 24. Furthermore, from the Waldmeier effect (the inferred preferential association between the ascent duration (ASC) and RM) one predicts an ASC longer than 48 mo for cycle 24; hence, maximum amplitude occurrence should be after December 2012. Application of the Hathaway-Wilson-Reichmann shape-fitting function, using an RM = 70 and ASC = 56 mo, is found to adequately fit the early sunspot number growth of cycle 24.

Wilson, Robert M.↗
NASA NTRS1995

Probabilistic material strength degradation model for Inconel 718 components subjected to high temperature, high-cycle and low-cycle mechanical fatigue, creep and thermal fatigue effects

This report presents the results of both the fifth and sixth year effort of a research program conducted for NASA-LeRC by The University of Texas at San Antonio (UTSA). The research included on-going development of methodology for a probabilistic material strength degradation model. The probabilistic model, in the form of a postulated randomized multifactor equation, provides for quantification of uncertainty in the lifetime material strength of aerospace propulsion system components subjected to a number of diverse random effects. This model is embodied in the computer program entitled PROMISS, which can include up to eighteen different effects. Presently, the model includes five effects that typically reduce lifetime strength: high temperature, high-cycle mechanical fatigue, low-cycle mechanical fatigue, creep and thermal fatigue. Statistical analysis was conducted on experimental Inconel 718 data obtained from the open literature. This analysis provided regression parameters for use as the model's empirical material constants, thus calibrating the model specifically for Inconel 718. Model calibration was carried out for five variables, namely, high temperature, high-cycle and low-cycle mechanical fatigue, creep and thermal fatigue. Methodology to estimate standard deviations of these material constants for input into the probabilistic material strength model was developed. Using an updated version of PROMISS, entitled PROMISS93, a sensitivity study for the combined effects of high-cycle mechanical fatigue, creep and thermal fatigue was performed. Then using the current version of PROMISS, entitled PROMISS94, a second sensitivity study including the effect of low-cycle mechanical fatigue, as well as, the three previous effects was performed. Results, in the form of cumulative distribution functions, illustrated the sensitivity of lifetime strength to any current value of an effect. In addition, verification studies comparing a combination of high-cycle mechanical fatigue and high temperature effects by model to the combination by experiment were conducted. Thus, for Inconel 718, the basic model assumption of independence between effects was evaluated. Results from this limited verification study strongly supported this assumption.

Bast, Callie C.↗
DOE OSTI2025

Time-resolved targeted metabolomics shows an abrupt switch from Calvin-Benson-Bassham cycle to tricarboxylic acid cycle when the light is turned off

Abstract In leaves, major CO₂ fluxes alternate between fixation by the Calvin-Benson-Bassham (CBB) cycle during light and release by the tricarboxylic acid (TCA) cycle in darkness. The speed at which leaf metabolism transitions between these pathways likely influences plant tolerance to fluctuating light conditions. To investigate these rapid metabolic shifts, we exposed leaves to ¹³CO₂ for 20 min to establish a quasi-steady state before abruptly turning off the light while maintaining ¹³CO₂ feeding. Within 10 s of dark transition, 3-phosphoglycerate levels rose significantly while most other CBB cycle intermediates decreased by more than 90%. Simultaneously, carbon accumulated in alanine, likely via pyruvate. Over the subsequent 10 min, six- and five-carbon TCA cycle intermediates steadily increased. In contrast, four-carbon TCA intermediates peaked at one minute, declined at three minutes, and rose again at 10 min, a pattern mirrored by most measured amino acids. These results reveal an exceptionally rapid metabolic reconfiguration from CO₂ fixation by the CBB cycle in light to TCA cycle activation for energy production in darkness, accompanied by substantial changes in amino acid metabolism.

Plant Sciences↗