Impact of Iceberg Calving on the Retreat of Thwaites Glacier, West Antarctica Over the Next Century With Different Calving Laws and Ocean Thermal Forcing
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Hongju Yu↗
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Alaska Ecological Conservation II: Using NASA Earth Observations to Identify Recent Changes in Vegetation Phenology and Its Impacts on Caribou Calving and Migration
Caribou are known for their long-distance migrations from wintering grounds to specified calving zones. Notably, the Western Arctic Herd (WAH) is the largest caribou herd in Northwestern Alaska that exhibits this behavior. These calving zones are highly predictable, and research suggests that calving and the availability of high-quality vegetation are correlated. We partnered with the U.S. National Park Service in Northwestern Alaska to use Terra and Aqua Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer(MODIS)and Harmonized Landsat and Sentinel-2 (HLS) imagery to derive Normalized Difference Vegetated Index (NDVI) values and assess vegetation phenology in calving zones from 2000 –2024. Our partners seek to understand if observed changes in caribou migration patterns and calving events correlate with shifts in the availability of nutrient-rich vegetation. Our results showed spatial variations of highly vegetated zones and annual shifts in the timing and length of growing seasons. While limitations existed in the MODIS and HLS datasets, we demonstrated feasibility using National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA)Earth observations for NDVI analysis over the study region. Using location data, our results may further research into caribou calving behaviors.
NDVI↗
Development of Ice-Shelf Estuaries Promotes Fractures and Calving
As the global climate warms, increased surface meltwater production on ice shelves may trigger ice-shelf collapse and enhance global sea-level rise. The formation of surface rivers could help prevent ice-shelf collapse if they can efficiently evacuate meltwater. Here we present observations of the evolution of a surface river into an ice-shelf estuary atop the Petermann Ice Shelf in northwest Greenland and identify a second estuary at the nearby Ryder Ice Shelf. This surface-hydrology process can foster fracturing and enhance calving. At the Petermann estuary, sea ice was observed converging at the river mouth upstream, indicating a flow reversal. Seawater persists in the estuary after the surrounding icescape is frozen. Along the base of Petermann estuary, linear fractures were initiated at the calving front and propagated upstream along the channel. Similar fractures along estuary channels shaped past large rectilinear calving events at the Petermann and Ryder ice shelves. Increased surface melting in a warming world will enhance fluvial incision, promoting estuary development and longitudinal fracturing orthogonal to ice-shelf fronts, and increase rectilinear calving. Estuaries could develop in Antarctica within the next half-century, resulting in increased calving and accelerating both ice loss and global sea-level rise.
Cryospheric science↗
Microbial inoculum effects on the rumen epithelial transcriptome and rumen epimural metatranscriptome in calves
Manipulation of the rumen microbial ecosystem in early life may affect ruminal fermentation and enhance the productive performance of dairy cows. The objective of this experiment was to evaluate the effects of dosing three different types of microbial inoculum on the rumen epithelium tissue (RE) transcriptome and the rumen epimural metatranscriptome (REM) in dairy calves. For this objective, 15 Holstein bull calves were enrolled in the study at birth and assigned to three different intraruminal inoculum treatments dosed orally once weekly from three to six weeks of age. The inoculum treatments were prepared from rumen contents collected from rumen fistulated lactating cows and were either autoclaved (control; ARF), processed by differential centrifugation to create the bacterial-enriched inoculum (BE), or through gravimetric separation to create the protozoal-enriched inoculum (PE). Calves were fed 2.5 L/d pasteurized waste milk 3x/d from 0 to 7 weeks of age and texturized starter until euthanasia at 9 weeks of age, when the RE tissues were collected for transcriptome and microbial metatranscriptome analyses, from four randomly selected calves from each treatment. The different types of inoculum altered the RE transcriptome and REM. Compared to ARF, 9 genes were upregulated in the RE of BE and 92 in PE, whereas between BE and PE there were 13 genes upregulated in BE and 114 in PE. Gene ontology analysis identified enriched GO terms in biological process category between PE and ARF, with no enrichment between BE and ARF. The RE functional signature showed different KEGG pathways related to BE and ARF, and no specific KEGG pathway for PE. We observed a lower alpha diversity index for RE microbiome in ARF (observed genera and Chao1 (p < 0.05)). Five microbial genera showed a significant correlation with the changes in host gene expression: Roseburia (25 genes), Entamoeba (two genes); Anaerosinus, Lachnospira, and Succiniclasticum were each related to one gene. sPLS-DA analysis showed that RE microbial communities differ among the treatments, although the taxonomic and functional microbial profiles show different distributions. Co-expression Differential Network Analysis indicated that both BE and PE had an impact on the abundance of KEGG modules related to acyl-CoA synthesis, type VI secretion, and methanogenesis, while PE had a significant impact on KEGGs related to ectoine biosynthesis and D-xylose transport. Our study indicated that artificial dosing with different microbial inocula in early life alters not only the RE transcriptome, but also affects the REM and its functions.
59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
Using dorsal surface for individual identification of dairy calves through 3D deep learning algorithms
Advances in machine learning techniques have allowed the development of computer vision systems (CVS) that can accurately predict several phenotypes of interest for livestock operations. In this context, 3D images taken from a top-down view are particularly useful for estimating body condition score, growth development, and body biometrics in cattle. Frequently, such CVS rely on identification (ID) systems, such as electronic tags, as a way to match animal ID and the predicted phenotype. However, the same 3D images used to predict body weight and other animal biometrics could be adopted for animal recognition as well. Such alternative would optimize CVS to recognize animal ID and monitor growth development simultaneously while leveraging the same hardware infrastructure. Furthermore, this strategy could be used to recognize animals with similar color patterns. Nonetheless, growing animals are continuously changing body shape, which could limit its use as an invariant feature for pattern recognition. Thus, the objectives of this study were: (1) to compare algorithms for different 3D object representations to identify individual animals; and (2) to evaluate how short-term changes in body shape due to animal growth affect the predictive performance of these algorithms. For objective 1, the algorithms were trained (n = 4,558) and tested (n = 1,139) using images from 38 Holstein calves. For objective 2, we designed three different experiments using images (n = 2,347) from five Holstein calves taken over six weeks during their growing period, always training and testing on different weeks. Each experiment evaluated how changing a different parameter of the image capturing procedure affected the predictive ability of the trained algorithms. In the first experiment, we varied the total number of images per animal in the training set; in the second experiment, we varied the number of weeks while keeping a fixed number of images in the training set; and in the third experiment, we skipped weeks between images in the training and test sets. The F 1 score for objective (1) was up to 0.804 when testing with the last frames of each video, and up to 0.959 when using random frames for testing. For objective (2), the F 1 score was up to 0.947 for the first experiment when using 130 images per animal; up to 0.979 for the second experiment when using all five weeks; and up to 0.917 when not skipping weeks between training and testing. In conclusion, these results show that deep learning algorithms can be used to identify individual animals through their dorsal area 3D surfaces, and, from our experiments using calves in their growing period, that they are robust enough to account for changes in body shape and size, making them a promising tool for animal recognition during growth.
3D neural networks↗
Experimental Senecavirus A Infection of Bovine Cell Lines and Colostrum-Deprived Calves
Senecavirus A (SVA) is a causative agent for vesicular disease in swine, which is clinically indistinguishable from other vesicular diseases of swine including foot-and-mouth disease (FMD). Recently, it was reported that buffalo in Guangdong, China were experiencing clinical symptoms similar to FMD including mouth ulcers and lameness tested positive for SVA. The objective of this study was to determine the susceptibility of cattle (Bos taurus) to SVA infection. Initial in vitro work using the PrimeFlow assay demonstrated that bovine cell lines and peripheral blood mononuclear cells from cattle were susceptible to SVA infection. Subsequently, six colostrum-deprived Holstein calves were challenged with SVA intranasally. No vesicular lesions were observed after challenge. Serum, oral, nasal, and rectal swabs tested for SVA nucleic acid did not support significant viral replication and there was no evidence of seroconversion. Therefore, demonstrating cattle from this study were not susceptible to experimental SVA infection.
60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
Do atmospheric rivers trigger tabular iceberg calving?
Not Available
Rendfrey, Tristan (ORCID:0000000259423097)↗
Virus strain influenced the interspecies transmission of influenza D virus between calves and pigs
Not Available
Kaplan, Bryan S.↗
Implementing Calving Laws in Ice-Sheet Models using Level Set Methods.
Abstract not provided.
Sockwell, Kenneth Chadwick↗
External influences on the Mertz Glacier Tongue (East Antarctica) in the decade leading up to its calving in 2010
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Robert A. Massom↗
An intranasal recombinant NDV-BRSV F opt vaccine is safe and reduces lesion severity in a colostrum-deprived calf model of RSV infection
Human respiratory syncytial virus (HRSV) is a major cause of severe lower respiratory tract disease in infants and the elderly, yet no safe, effective vaccine is commercially available. Closely related bovine RSV (BRSV) causes respiratory disease in young calves, with many similar features to those seen in HRSV. We previously showed that a Newcastle disease virus (NDV)-vectored vaccine expressing the F glycoprotein of HRSV reduced viral loads in lungs of mice and cotton rats and protected from HRSV. However, clinical signs and pathogenesis of disease in laboratory animals following HRSV infection differs from that observed in human infants. Thus, we examined whether a similar vaccine would protect neonatal calves from BRSV infection. Codon-optimized rNDV vaccine (rNDV-BRSV F opt ) was constructed and administered to colostrum-deprived calves. The rNDV-BRSV F opt vaccine was well-tolerated and there was no evidence of vaccine-enhanced disease in the upper airways or lungs of these calves compared to the non-vaccinated calves. We found two intranasal doses reduces severity of gross and microscopic lesions and decreases viral load in the lungs. Furthermore, serum neutralizing antibodies were generated in vaccinated calves. Finally, reduced lung CXC chemokine levels were observed in vaccinated calves after BRSV challenge. In summary, we have shown that rNDV-BRSV F opt vaccine is safe in colostrum-deprived calves, and is effective in reducing lung lesions, and decreasing viral load in upper respiratory tract and lungs after challenge.
60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
The contribution of Humboldt Glacier, northern Greenland, to sea-level rise through 2100 constrained by recent observations of speedup and retreat
Abstract. Humboldt Glacier, northern Greenland, has retreated and accelerated through the 21st century, raising concerns that it could be a significant contributor to future sea-level rise. We use a data-constrained ensemble of three-dimensional higher-order ice sheet model simulations to estimate the likely range of sea-level rise from the continued retreat of Humboldt Glacier. We first solve for basal traction using observed ice thickness, bed topography, and ice surface velocity from the year 2007 in a PDE-constrained (partial differential equation) optimization. Next, we impose calving rates to match mean observed retreat rates from winter 2007–2008 to winter 2017–2018 in a transient calibration of the exponent in the power-law basal friction relationship. We find that power-law exponents in the range of 1/7–1/5 – rather than the commonly used 1/3–1 – are necessary to reproduce the observed speedup over this period. We then tune an iceberg calving parameterization based on the von Mises stress yield criterion in another transient-calibration step to approximate both observed ice velocities and terminus position in 2017–2018. Finally, we use the range of basal friction relationship exponents and calving parameter values to generate the ensemble of model simulations from 2007–2100 under three climate forcing scenarios from CMIP5 (two RCP8.5 forcings, Representative Concentration Pathway) and CMIP6 (one SSP5-8.5 forcing, Shared Socioeconomic Pathway). Our simulations predict 5.2–8.7 mm of sea-level rise from Humboldt Glacier, significantly higher than a previous estimate (∼ 3.5 mm) and equivalent to a substantial fraction of the 40–140 mm predicted by ISMIP6 from the whole Greenland Ice Sheet. Our larger future sea-level rise prediction results from the transient calibration of our basal friction law to match the observed speedup, which requires a semi-plastic bed rheology. In many simulations, our model predicts the growth of a sizable ice shelf in the middle of the 21st century. Thus, atmospheric warming could lead to more retreat than predicted here if increased surface melt promotes hydrofracture of the ice shelf. Our data-constrained simulations of Humboldt Glacier underscore the sensitivity of model predictions of Greenland outlet glacier response to warming to choices of basal shear stress and iceberg calving parameterizations. Further, transient calibration of these parameterizations, which has not typically been performed, is necessary to reproduce observed behavior. Current estimates of future sea-level rise from the Greenland Ice Sheet could, therefore, contain significant biases.
54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
Genomic and phenotypic comparison of two variants of multidrug-resistant Salmonella enterica serovar Heidelberg isolated during the 2015–2017 multi-state outbreak in cattle
Salmonella enterica subspecies enterica serovar Heidelberg (Salmonella Heidelberg) has caused several multistate foodborne outbreaks in the United States, largely associated with the consumption of poultry. However, a 2015–2017 multidrug-resistant (MDR) Salmonella Heidelberg outbreak was linked to contact with dairy beef calves. Traceback investigations revealed calves infected with outbreak strains of Salmonella Heidelberg exhibited symptoms of disease frequently followed by death from septicemia. To investigate virulence characteristics of Salmonella Heidelberg as a pathogen in bovine, two variants with distinct pulse-field gel electrophoresis (PFGE) patterns that differed in morbidity and mortality during the multistate outbreak were genotypically and phenotypically characterized and compared. Strain SX 245 with PFGE pattern JF6X01.0523 was identified as a dominant and highly pathogenic variant causing high morbidity and mortality in affected calves, whereas strain SX 244 with PFGE pattern JF6X01.0590 was classified as a low pathogenic variant causing less morbidity and mortality. Comparison of whole-genome sequences determined that SX 245 lacked ~200 genes present in SX 244, including genes associated with the IncI1 plasmid and phages; SX 244 lacked eight genes present in SX 245 including a second YdiV Anti-FlhC(2)FlhD(4) factor, a lysin motif domain containing protein, and a pentapeptide repeat protein. RNA-sequencing revealed fimbriae-related, flagella-related, and chemotaxis genes had increased expression in SX 245 compared to SX 244. Furthermore, SX 245 displayed higher invasion of human and bovine epithelial cells than SX 244. These data suggest that the presence and up-regulation of genes involved in type 1 fimbriae production, flagellar regulation and biogenesis, and chemotaxis may play a role in the increased pathogenicity and host range expansion of the Salmonella Heidelberg isolates involved in the bovine-related outbreak.
59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
The role of föhn winds in eastern Antarctic Peninsula rapid ice shelf collapse
Ice shelf collapse reduces buttressing and enables grounded glaciers to contribute more rapidly to sea-level rise in a warming climate. The abrupt collapses of the Larsen A (1995) and B (2002) ice shelves on the Antarctic Peninsula (AP) occurred, at least for Larsen B, when long-period ocean swells damaged the calving front and the ice shelf was inundated with melt lakes that led to large-scale hydrofracture cascades. During collapse, field and satellite observations indicate föhn winds were present on both ice shelves. Here we use a regional climate model and machine learning analyses to evaluate the contributory roles of föhn winds and associated melt events prior to and during the collapses for ice shelves on the AP. Föhn winds caused about 25 % ± 3 % of the total annual melt in just 9 d on Larsen A prior to and during collapse and were present during the Larsen B collapse, which helped form extensive melt lakes. At the same time, the off-coast wind direction created by föhn winds helped melt and physically push sea ice away from the ice shelf calving fronts that allowed long-period ocean swells to reach and damage the front, which has been theorized to have ultimately triggered collapse. Collapsed ice shelves experienced enhanced surface melt driven by föhn winds over a large spatial extent and near the calving front, whereas SCAR inlet and the Larsen C ice shelves are affected less by föhn-wind-induced melt and do not experience large-scale melt ponds. These results suggest SCAR inlet and the Larsen C ice shelves may be less likely to experience rapid collapse due to föhn-driven melt so long as surface temperatures and föhn occurrence remain within historical bounds.
58 GEOSCIENCES↗
Sea-level response to ice sheet evolution: An ocean perspective
The ocean's influence upon and response to Antarctic ice sheet changes is considered in relation to sea level rise over recent and future decades. Assuming present day ice fronts are in approximate equilibrium, a preliminary budget for the ice sheet is estimated from accumulation vs. iceberg calving and the basal melting that occurs beneath floating ice shelves. Iceberg calving is derived from the volume of large bergs identified and tracked by the Navy/NOAA Joint Ice Center and from shipboard observations. Basal melting exceeds 600 cu km/yr and is concentrated near the ice fronts and ice shelf grounding lines. An apparent negative mass balance for the Antarctic ice sheet may result from an anomalous calving rate during the past decade, but there are large uncertainties associated with all components of the ice budget. The results from general circulation models are noted in the context of projected precipitation increases and ocean temperature changes on and near the continent. An ocean research program that could help refine budget estimates is consistent with goals of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet Initiative.
Jacobs, Stanley S.↗
Petermann Glacier on the Brink: Progress, Challenges and Insights
Petermann Glacier, the largest marine-terminating glacier in northern Greenland based on catchment area and ice discharge, plays a key role in regulating ice discharge from the Greenland Ice Sheet into the Arctic Ocean. With an upstream catchment connected to the ice sheet interior via a deep subglacial canyon, its future stability has major implications for sea level rise. In this review, we synthesize recent advances in understanding Petermann’s dynamics across three critical interfaces: the ice–ocean, ice–atmosphere, and ice–bed boundaries. At the surface, observations show that reanalysis products underestimate air temperatures and melt, while regional climate models diverge significantly in their estimates of surface mass balance, underscoring the need for improved in situ data and models. At the ocean boundary, enhanced basal melting driven by both subglacial runoff and Atlantic water intrusions is identified as the dominant driver of recent mass loss of Petermann Glacier, with continued warming posing a serious threat to the stability of the floating tongue. At the bed, new geophysical synthesis reveals complex geology, likely spatial variability in geothermal heat flux, and the influence of the megacanyon on seasonal hydrology and velocity fluctuations. Petermann’s mass balance has been negative in recent decades without corresponding flow acceleration. However, the glacier has undergone significant calving events, and the current rifting that began in September 2025 highlights its vulnerability. This upcoming calving event underscores the timeliness of this review, as it will put Petermann Glacier’s terminus at its most retreated position since records began in 1923. The anticipated retreat of the ice tongue also reduces buttressing and brings the terminus closer to the grounding zone, and modeling studies suggest that calving within 12 km of the grounding zone could potentially trigger dynamic retreat, accelerating ice discharge, and a doubling of flow speeds. We conclude that improved observations, sustained monitoring of oceanographic and atmospheric properties, and high-resolution modeling are critical to constraining projections of Petermann Glacier’s future and its role in the stability of the Greenland Ice Sheet.
Dominik Fahrner↗
Mapping brucellosis risk in Kenya and its implications for control strategies in sub-Saharan Africa
In Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA), effective brucellosis control is limited, in part, by the lack of long-term commitments by governments to control the disease and the absence of reliable national human and livestock population-based data to inform policies. Therefore, we conducted a study to establish the national prevalence and develop a risk map for Brucella spp. in cattle to contribute to plans to eliminate the disease in Kenya by the year 2040. We randomly generated 268 geolocations and distributed them across Kenya, proportionate to the area of each of the five agroecological zones and the associated cattle population. Cattle herds closest to each selected geolocation were identified for sampling. Up to 25 cattle were sampled per geolocation and a semi-structured questionnaire was administered to their owners. We tested 6,593 cattle samples for Brucella immunoglobulin G (IgG) antibodies using an Enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (ELISA). We assessed potential risk factors and performed spatial analyses and prevalence mapping using approximate Bayesian inference implemented via the integrated nested Laplace approximation (INLA) method. The national Brucella spp. prevalence was 6.8% (95% CI: 6.2–7.4%). Exposure levels varied significantly between agro-ecological zones, with a high of 8.5% in the very arid zone with the lowest agricultural potential relative to a low of 0.0% in the agro-alpine zone with the highest agricultural potential. Additionally, seroprevalence increased with herd size, and the odds of seropositivity were significantly higher for females and adult animals than for males or calves. Similarly, animals with a history of abortion, or with multiple reproductive syndromes had higher seropositivity than those without. At the herd level, the risk of Brucella spp. transmission was higher in larger herds, and herds with a history of reproductive problems such as abortion, giving birth to weak calves, or having swollen testes. Geographic localities with high Brucella seroprevalence occurred in northern, eastern, and southern regions of Kenya all primarily characterized by semi-arid or arid agro-ecological zones dominated by livestock pastoralism interspersed with vast areas with mixed livestock-wildlife systems. The large spatial extent of our survey provides compelling evidence for the widespread geographical distribution of brucellosis risk across Kenya in a manner easily understandable for policymakers. Our findings can provide a basis for risk-stratified pilot studies aiming to investigate the cost-effectiveness and efficacy of singular and combined preventive intervention strategies that seek to inform Kenya’s Brucellosis Control Policy.
60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
Assessing Global Ocean Circulation Sensitivity to Changes in Antarctic Ice Discharge
The principal goal of this research is to assess how projected increases in meltwater discharge and iceberg calving from the Antarctic Ice Sheet will impact climate in the next 250 years. In short, the sensitivity of the global ocean circulation and climate, and in particular the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC), to large increases in iceberg calving and meltwater discharges to the Southern Ocean are poorly understood. The requirement to investigate this topic is heightened by growing evidence that the West Antarctic Ice Sheet (WAIS) is vulnerable to rapid retreat and collapse through marine-ice-sheet-instability (MISI) on multidecadal-to-centennial timescales. Future model simulations of the AIS show the potential for rapid ice sheet retreat in the next 50 – 300 years, with such a collapse associated with the discharge of enormous volumes of ice and meltwater to the Southern Ocean. This project uses a combination of an ice sheet/shelf model and a fully coupled (ocean-atmosphere-seaice) model (CESM 1.2) to explore the sensitive of global climate to future changes in runoff from the Antarctic continent under future greenhouse gas emissions scenarios IPCC RCP4.5 and 8.5. Overall, accounting for Antarctic meltwater reduces the projected global mean anthropogenic greenhouse warming by up to 2 deg C. during peak WAIS collapse and by ~1 deg. for most of the simulation. In addition, the increased meltwater contribution raises sub-surface ocean temperatures at the Antarctic ice sheet margin by more than 1ºC, such that the ice shelf basal melt rates increase beyond those currently projected. In contrast, the model predicts a strong cooling of both the surface air and ocean temperatures over the Southern Ocean that results in a massive expansion and thickening of the perennial sea-ice. The slow-down in anthropogenic warming also results in the onset of ice-free conditions in the Arctic being delayed in the model by several decades, and the projected slowdown in the AMOC to reduce.
58 GEOSCIENCES↗