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Managing Lunar and Mars Mission Radiation Risks: Cancer Risks, Uncertainties, and Shielding Effectiveness - Part 1

This document addresses calculations of probability distribution functions (PDFs) representing uncertainties in projecting fatal cancer risk from galactic cosmic rays (GCR) and solar particle events (SPEs). PDFs are used to test the effectiveness of potential radiation shielding approaches. Monte-Carlo techniques are used to propagate uncertainties in risk coefficients determined from epidemiology data, dose and dose-rate reduction factors, quality factors, and physics models of radiation environments. Competing mortality risks and functional correlations in radiation quality factor uncertainties are treated in the calculations. The cancer risk uncertainty is about four-fold for lunar and Mars mission risk projections. For short-stay lunar missins (<180 d), SPEs present the most significant risk, but one effectively mitigated by shielding. For long-duration (>180 d) lunar or Mars missions, GCR risks may exceed radiation risk limits. While shielding materials are marginally effective in reducing GCR cancer risks because of the penetrating nature of GCR and secondary radiation produced in tissue by relativisitc particles, polyethylene or carbon composite shielding cannot be shown to significantly reduce risk compared to aluminum shielding. Therefore, improving our knowledge of space radiobiology to narrow uncertainties that lead to wide PDFs is the best approach to ensure radiation protection goals are met for space exploration.

Cucinotta, Francis A.↗

Probabilistic Assessment of Cancer Risk from Solar Particle Events

For long duration missions outside of the protection of the Earth s magnetic field, space radiation presents significant health risks including cancer mortality. Space radiation consists of solar particle events (SPEs), comprised largely of medium energy protons (less than several hundred MeV); and galactic cosmic ray (GCR), which include high energy protons and heavy ions. While the frequency distribution of SPEs depends strongly upon the phase within the solar activity cycle, the individual SPE occurrences themselves are random in nature. We estimated the probability of SPE occurrence using a non-homogeneous Poisson model to fit the historical database of proton measurements. Distributions of particle fluences of SPEs for a specified mission period were simulated ranging from its 5 th to 95th percentile to assess the cancer risk distribution. Spectral variability of SPEs was also examined, because the detailed energy spectra of protons are important especially at high energy levels for assessing the cancer risk associated with energetic particles for large events. We estimated the overall cumulative probability of GCR environment for a specified mission period using a solar modulation model for the temporal characterization of the GCR environment represented by the deceleration potential (^). Probabilistic assessment of cancer fatal risk was calculated for various periods of lunar and Mars missions. This probabilistic approach to risk assessment from space radiation is in support of mission design and operational planning for future manned space exploration missions. In future work, this probabilistic approach to the space radiation will be combined with a probabilistic approach to the radiobiological factors that contribute to the uncertainties in projecting cancer risks.

Kim, Myung-Hee Y.↗

Describing patterns of familial cancer risk in subfertile men using population pedigree data

STUDY QUESTION Can we simultaneously assess risk for multiple cancers to identify familial multicancer patterns in families of azoospermic and severely oligozoospermic men? SUMMARY ANSWER Here, distinct familial cancer patterns were observed in the azoospermia and severe oligozoospermia cohorts, suggesting heterogeneity in familial cancer risk by both type of subfertility and within subfertility type. WHAT IS KNOWN ALREADY Subfertile men and their relatives show increased risk for certain cancers including testicular, thyroid, and pediatric. STUDY DESIGN, SIZE, DURATION A retrospective cohort of subfertile men (N = 786) was identified and matched to fertile population controls (N = 5674). Family members out to third-degree relatives were identified for both subfertile men and fertile population controls (N = 337 754). The study period was 1966–2017. Individuals were censored at death or loss to follow-up, loss to follow-up occurred if they left Utah during the study period. PARTICIPANTS/MATERIALS, SETTING, METHODS Azoospermic (0 × 10 6 /mL) and severely oligozoospermic (<1.5 × 10 6 /mL) men were identified in the Subfertility Health and Assisted Reproduction and the Environment cohort (SHARE). Subfertile men were age- and sex-matched 5:1 to fertile population controls and family members out to third-degree relatives were identified using the Utah Population Database (UPDB). Cancer diagnoses were identified through the Utah Cancer Registry. Families containing ≥10 members with ≥1 year of follow-up 1966–2017 were included (azoospermic: N = 426 families, 21 361 individuals; oligozoospermic: N = 360 families, 18 818 individuals). Unsupervised clustering based on standardized incidence ratios for 34 cancer phenotypes in the families was used to identify familial multicancer patterns; azoospermia and severe oligospermia families were assessed separately. MAIN RESULTS AND THE ROLE OF CHANCE Compared to control families, significant increases in cancer risks were observed in the azoospermia cohort for five cancer types: bone and joint cancers hazard ratio (HR) = 2.56 (95% CI = 1.48–4.42), soft tissue cancers HR = 1.56 (95% CI = 1.01–2.39), uterine cancers HR = 1.27 (95% CI = 1.03–1.56), Hodgkin lymphomas HR = 1.60 (95% CI = 1.07–2.39), and thyroid cancer HR = 1.54 (95% CI = 1.21–1.97). Among severe oligozoospermia families, increased risk was seen for three cancer types: colon cancer HR = 1.16 (95% CI = 1.01–1.32), bone and joint cancers HR = 2.43 (95% CI = 1.30–4.54), and testis cancer HR = 2.34 (95% CI = 1.60–3.42) along with a significant decrease in esophageal cancer risk HR = 0.39 (95% CI = 0.16–0.97). Thirteen clusters of familial multicancer patterns were identified in families of azoospermic men, 66% of families in the azoospermia cohort showed population-level cancer risks, however, the remaining 12 clusters showed elevated risk for 2-7 cancer types. Several of the clusters with elevated cancer risks also showed increased odds of cancer diagnoses at young ages with six clusters showing increased odds of adolescent and young adult (AYA) diagnosis [odds ratio (OR) = 1.96–2.88] and two clusters showing increased odds of pediatric cancer diagnosis (OR = 3.64–12.63). Within the severe oligozoospermia cohort, 12 distinct familial multicancer clusters were identified. All 12 clusters showed elevated risk for 1–3 cancer types. An increase in odds of cancer diagnoses at young ages was also seen in five of the severe oligozoospermia familial multicancer clusters, three clusters showed increased odds of AYA diagnosis (OR = 2.19–2.78) with an additional two clusters showing increased odds of a pediatric diagnosis (OR = 3.84–9.32). LIMITATIONS, REASONS FOR CAUTION Although this study has many strengths, including population data for family structure, cancer diagnoses and subfertility, there are limitations. First, semen measures are not available for the sample of fertile men. Second, there is no information on medical comorbidities or lifestyle risk factors such as smoking status, BMI, or environmental exposures. Third, all of the subfertile men included in this study were seen at a fertility clinic for evaluation. These men were therefore a subset of the overall population experiencing fertility problems and likely represent those with the socioeconomic means for evaluation by a physician. WIDER IMPLICATIONS OF THE FINDINGS This analysis leveraged unique population-level data resources, SHARE and the UPDB, to describe novel multicancer clusters among the families of azoospermic and severely oligozoospermic men. Distinct overall multicancer risk and familial multicancer patterns were observed in the azoospermia and severe oligozoospermia cohorts, suggesting heterogeneity in cancer risk by type of subfertility and within subfertility type. Describing families with similar cancer risk patterns provides a new avenue to increase homogeneity for focused gene discovery and environmental risk factor studies. Such discoveries will lead to more accurate risk predictions and improved counseling for patients and their families. STUDY FUNDING/COMPETING INTEREST(S) This work was funded by GEMS: Genomic approach to connecting Elevated germline Mutation rates with male infertility and Somatic health (Eunice Kennedy Shriver National Institute of Child Health and Human Development (NICHD): R01 HD106112). The authors have no conflicts of interest relevant to this work.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

Space Radiation Cancer Risks and Uncertainities for Different Mission Time Periods

Space radiation consists of solar particle events (SPEs), comprised largely of medium energy protons (less than several hundred MeV); and galactic cosmic ray (GCR), which includes high energy protons and high charge and energy (HZE) nuclei. For long duration missions, space radiation presents significant health risks including cancer mortality. Probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) is essential for radiation protection of crews on long term space missions outside of the protection of the Earth s magnetic field and for optimization of mission planning and costs. For the assessment of organ dosimetric quantities and cancer risks, the particle spectra at each critical body organs must be characterized. In implementing a PRA approach, a statistical model of SPE fluence was developed, because the individual SPE occurrences themselves are random in nature while the frequency distribution of SPEs depends strongly upon the phase within the solar activity cycle. Spectral variability of SPEs was also examined, because the detailed energy spectra of protons are important especially at high energy levels for assessing the cancer risk associated with energetic particles for large events. An overall cumulative probability of a GCR environment for a specified mission period was estimated for the temporal characterization of the GCR environment represented by the deceleration potential (theta). Finally, this probabilistic approach to space radiation cancer risk was coupled with a model of the radiobiological factors and uncertainties in projecting cancer risks. Probabilities of fatal cancer risk and 95% confidence intervals will be reported for various periods of space missions.

Kim,Myung-Hee Y.↗

Skin-Based DNA Repair Phenotype for Cancer Risk from GCR in Genetically Diverse Populations

Predicting cancer risk associated with cosmic radiation remains a mission-critical challenge for NASA radiation health scientists and mission planners. Epidemiological data are lacking and risk methods do not take individual radiation sensitivity into account. In our approach we hypothesize that genetic factors strongly influence risk of cancer from space radiation and that biomarkers reflecting DNA damage and cell death are ideal tools to predict risk and monitor potential health effects post-flight. At this workshop, we will be reporting the work we have done over the first 9 months of this proposal. Skin cells from 15 different strains of mice already characterized for radiation-induced cancer sensitivity (B6C3F; BALB/cByJ, C57BL/6J, CBA/CaJ, C3H/HeMsNrsf), and 10 strains from the DOE collaborative cross-mouse model were expanded from ear biopsy and cultivated until Passage 3. On average, 3 males and 3 females for each strain were expanded and frozen for further characterization at the NSRL beam line during the NSRL16C run for three LET (350 MeV/n Si, 350 MeV/n Ar and 600 MeV/n Fe) and two ion fluences (1 and 3 particles per cell). The mice work has established new metrics for the usage of Radiation Induced Foci as a marker for various aspect of DNA repair deficiencies. In year 2, we propose to continue characterization of the mouse lines with low LET to identify loci specific to high- versus low- LET and establish genetic linkage for the various DNA repair biomarkers. Correlation with cancer risk from each animals strain and gender will also be investigated. On the human side, we will start characterizing the DNA damage response induced ex-vivo in 200 human's blood donors for radiation sensitivity with a tentative 500 donors by the end of this project. All ex-vivo phenotypic data will be correlated to genetic characterization of each individual human donors using SNP arrays characterization as done for mice. Similarly, ex-vivo phenotypic features from mice will be associated to cancer risk, to identify which biomarkers correlate the most with cancer risk. Genetic traits across humans will also be associated to radiation phenotypic features as a function of age and gender.

radiation space biology↗

Adipose tissue levels of polybrominated diphenyl ethers and breast cancer risk in Chinese women: A case–control study

Highlights: • Associations between adipose tissue PBDE levels and breast cancer risk were assessed. • Levels of most individual PBDE congeners were higher in breast-cancer cases than controls. • Breast-cancer risk was increased with both 2nd and 3rd tertiles of BDE-47 and BDE-209 levels with a trend. • Breast-cancer risk was also increased with the 3rd tertile of BDE-28, 99, 100, 138, 153, 154, and ∑PBDE levels. • PBDE concentrations are associated with breast-cancer risk in women in Chaoshan, China. Polybrominated diphenyl ethers (PBDEs) are suspected to be associated with breast cancer risk because of their estrogenic potencies. Epidemiological studies of PBDEs and breast cancer are scarce. Our study aimed to estimate the association between adipose-tissue PBDE concentrations and breast cancer risk. A total of 209 breast cancer cases and 165 controls were recruited from hospitals between January 2014 and May 2016 in Shantou, Chaoshan area, China. Concentrations of 14 PBDE congeners were measured in adipose tissues obtained from the breast for cases and the abdomen/breast for controls during surgery. Demographic and clinicopathologic characteristics were obtained from medical records. Breast cancer risk as well as clinicopathologic characteristics were evaluated by adipose-tissue PBDE level. Odds ratios (ORs) and 95% confidence intervals (95% CIs) for breast cancer risk associated with levels of PBDE congeners were estimated from logistic regression models for all cases and stratified by estrogen receptor (ER) status. Level of total PBDEs (∑PBDE) and most individual PBDE congeners were higher in breast cancer cases than controls (median ∑PBDE, 94.99 vs 73.72 ng/g lipid). In the adjusted univariate model for all cases, breast cancer risk was increased with both 2nd and 3rd tertiles versus the 1st tertile of BDE-47 level (OR 2.05 [95% CI 1.08–3.92]; 5.47 [2.96–10.11]) and BDE-209 level (2.48 [1.30–4.73]; 4.72 [2.52–8.83]) with trend (both P < 0.001) and with the 3rd tertile of BDE-28 level (2.83 [1.63–4.92]), BDE-99 (3.22 [1.85–5.60]), BDE-100 (5.45 [2.90–10.23]), BDE-138 (2.40 [1.37–4.20]), BDE-153 (1.74 [1.02–2.97]), BDE-154 (1.84 [1.05–3.22]), and ∑PBDE levels (1.83 [1.07–3.14]) but decreased with the 3rd tertile of BDE-71 level (0.38 [0.22–0.65]) with trend (all P < 0.01). After stratifying by ER-positive or -negative status, the adjusted results were similar for ER-positive patients except for BDE-153 and BDE-154, with no statistical significance. In the multivariate model for all cases, age, menarche age, BDE-47, 71, 99, 100, 183 and 209 were independent factors associated with breast-cancer risk. ∑PBDE and most individual PBDE congeners investigated were positively associated with breast cancer risk in women from the Chaoshan area, China. PBDE may play a role in the occurrence and development of breast cancer.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

A New View of Radiation-Induced Cancer: Integrating Short- and Long-Term Processes. Part II: Second Cancer Risk Estimation

As the number of cancer survivors grows, prediction of radiotherapy-induced second cancer risks becomes increasingly important. Because the latency period for solid tumors is long, the risks of recently introduced radiotherapy protocols are not yet directly measurable. In the accompanying article, we presented a new biologically based mathematical model, which, in principle, can estimate second cancer risks for any protocol. The novelty of the model is that it integrates, into a single formalism, mechanistic analyses of pre-malignant cell dynamics on two different time scales: short-term during radiotherapy and recovery; long-term during the entire life span. Here, we apply the model to nine solid cancer types (stomach, lung, colon, rectal, pancreatic, bladder, breast, central nervous system, and thyroid) using data on radiotherapy-induced second malignancies, on Japanese atomic bomb survivors, and on background US cancer incidence. Potentially, the model can be incorporated into radiotherapy treatment planning algorithms, adding second cancer risk as an optimization criterion.

Shuryak, Igor↗

The association between neighborhood obesogenic factors and prostate cancer risk and mortality: the Southern Community Cohort Study

Background: Prostate cancer is one of the leading causes of cancer-related mortality among men in the United States. We examined the role of neighborhood obesogenic attributes on prostate cancer risk and mortality in the Southern Community Cohort Study (SCCS). Methods: From the total of 34,166 SCCS male participants, 28,356 were included in the analysis. We assessed the relationship between neighborhood obesogenic factors [neighborhood socioeconomic status (nSES) and neighborhood obesogenic environment indices including the restaurant environment index, the retail food environment index, parks, recreational facilities, and businesses] and prostate cancer risk and mortality by controlling for individual-level factors using a multivariable Cox proportional hazards model. We further stratified prostate cancer risk analysis by race and body mass index (BMI). Results: Median follow-up time was 133 months [interquartile range (IQR): 103, 152], and the mean age was 51.62 (SD: ± 8.42) years. There were 1,524 (5.37%) prostate cancer diagnoses and 98 (6.43%) prostate cancer deaths during follow-up. Compared to participants residing in the wealthiest quintile, those residing in the poorest quintile had a higher risk of prostate cancer (aHR = 1.32, 95% CI 1.12–1.57, p = 0.001), particularly among non-obese men with a BMI < 30 (aHR = 1.46, 95% CI 1.07–1.98, p = 0.016). The restaurant environment index was associated with a higher prostate cancer risk in overweight (BMI ≥ 25) White men (aHR = 3.37, 95% CI 1.04–10.94, p = 0.043, quintile 1 vs. None). Obese Black individuals without any neighborhood recreational facilities had a 42% higher risk (aHR = 1.42, 95% CI 1.04–1.94, p = 0.026) compared to those with any access. Compared to residents in the wealthiest quintile and most walkable area, those residing within the poorest quintile (aHR = 3.43, 95% CI 1.54–7.64, p = 0.003) or the least walkable area (aHR = 3.45, 95% CI 1.22–9.78, p = 0.020) had a higher risk of prostate cancer death. Conclusion: Living in a lower-nSES area was associated with a higher prostate cancer risk, particularly among Black men. Restaurant and retail food environment indices were also associated with a higher prostate cancer risk, with stronger associations within overweight White individuals. Finally, residing in a low-SES neighborhood or the least walkable areas were associated with a higher risk of prostate cancer mortality.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

Smoking, Alcohol, and Biliary Tract Cancer Risk: A Pooling Project of 26 Prospective Studies

Abstract Background Tobacco and alcohol are well-established risk factors for numerous cancers, yet their relationship to biliary tract cancers remains unclear. Methods We pooled data from 26 prospective studies to evaluate associations of cigarette smoking and alcohol consumption with biliary tract cancer risk. Study-specific hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) for associations with smoking and alcohol consumption were calculated. Random-effects meta-analysis produced summary estimates. All statistical tests were two-sided. Results Over a period of 38 369 156 person-years of follow-up, 1391 gallbladder, 758 intrahepatic bile duct, 1208 extrahepatic bile duct, and 623 ampulla of Vater cancer cases were identified. Ever, former, and current smoking were associated with increased extrahepatic bile duct and ampulla of Vater cancers risk (eg, current vs never smokers HR = 1.69, 95% CI = 1.34 to 2.13 and 2.22, 95% CI = 1.69 to 2.92, respectively), with dose-response effects for smoking pack-years, duration, and intensity (all Ptrend < .01). Current smoking and smoking intensity were also associated with intrahepatic bile duct cancer (eg, >40 cigarettes per day vs never smokers HR = 2.15, 95 % CI = 1.15 to 4.00; Ptrend = .001). No convincing association was observed between smoking and gallbladder cancer. Alcohol consumption was only associated with intrahepatic bile duct cancer, with increased risk for individuals consuming five or more vs zero drinks per day (HR = 2.35, 95%CI = 1.46 to 3.78; Ptrend = .04). There was evidence of statistical heterogeneity among several cancer sites, particularly between gallbladder cancer and the other biliary tract cancers. Conclusions Smoking appears to increase the risk of developing all biliary tract cancers except gallbladder cancer. Alcohol may increase the risk of intrahepatic bile duct cancer. Findings highlight etiologic heterogeneity across the biliary tract.

McGee, Emma E.↗

Space Radiation Cancer Risks and Uncertainties for Mars Missions

Projecting cancer risks from exposure to space radiation is highly uncertain because of the absence of data for humans and because of the limited radiobiology data available for estimating late effects from the high-energy and charge (HZE) ions present in the galactic cosmic rays (GCR). Cancer risk projections involve many biological and physical factors, each of which has a differential range of uncertainty due to the lack of data and knowledge. We discuss an uncertainty assessment within the linear-additivity model using the approach of Monte Carlo sampling from subjective error distributions that represent the lack of knowledge in each factor to quantify the overall uncertainty in risk projections. Calculations are performed using the space radiation environment and transport codes for several Mars mission scenarios. This approach leads to estimates of the uncertainties in cancer risk projections of 400-600% for a Mars mission. The uncertainties in the quality factors are dominant. Using safety standards developed for low-Earth orbit, long-term space missions (>90 days) outside the Earth's magnetic field are currently unacceptable if the confidence levels in risk projections are considered. Because GCR exposures involve multiple particle or delta-ray tracks per cellular array, our results suggest that the shape of the dose response at low dose rates may be an additional uncertainty for estimating space radiation risks.

NASA Discipline Radiation Health↗

Space Radiation Cancer Risk Projections for Exploration Missions: Uncertainty Reduction and Mitigation

In this paper we discuss expected lifetime excess cancer risks for astronauts returning from exploration class missions. For the first time we make a quantitative assessment of uncertainties in cancer risk projections for space radiation exposures. Late effects from the high charge and energy (HZE) ions present in the galactic cosmic rays including cancer and the poorly understood risks to the central nervous system constitute the major risks. Methods used to project risk in low Earth orbit are seen as highly uncertain for projecting risks on exploration missions because of the limited radiobiology data available for estimating HZE ion risks. Cancer risk projections are described as a product of many biological and physical factors, each of which has a differential range of uncertainty due to lack of data and knowledge. Monte-Carlo sampling from subjective error distributions represents the lack of knowledge in each factor to quantify risk projection overall uncertainty. Cancer risk analysis is applied to several exploration mission scenarios. At solar minimum, the number of days in space where career risk of less than the limiting 3% excess cancer mortality can be assured at a 95% confidence level is found to be only of the order of 100 days.

Cucinotta, Francis↗

The additive to background assumption in cancer risk assessment: A reappraisal

The assumption that chemical and radiation induced cancers act in a manner that is additive to background was proposed in the mid-1970s. It was adopted by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) in 1986 and then subsequently by other regulatory agencies worldwide for cancer risk assessment. It ensured that cancer risks at low doses act in a linear fashion. The additive to background process assumes that the mechanism(s) resulting in induced (i.e., treatment related) and spontaneous (i.e., control group) cancers are identical. This assumption could not be properly evaluated due to inadequate mechanistic data when it was proposed in the 1970s. Using the findings of modern molecular toxicology, including oncogene activation/mutation, gene regulation, and molecular pathway analyses, the additive to background assumption was evaluated in the present paper. Based on published studies with 45 carcinogens over 13 diverse mammalian models and for a broad range of tumor types compelling evidence indicates that carcinogen-induced tumors are mediated in general via mechanisms that are not identical to those affecting the occurrence of the same type of spontaneous tumors in appropriate control groups. These findings, which challenge a fundamental assumption of the additive to background concept, have significant implications for cancer risk assessment policy, regulatory agency practices, as well as fundamental concepts of cancer biology.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Plausible Biological Mechanisms Underlying Sex Differences in Radiation-Induced Lung Cancer Risk

Some epidemiological studies suggest that women are at greater risk for radiation-induced lung cancer than men, but this observation is not consistent across all studies. A scientific committee formed by the National Council on Radiation Protection and Measurement evaluated evidence for a sex difference in lung cancer risk from radiation exposuresby reviewing animal studies and assessing the biological plausibility that such a difference might exist. The committee identified four mechanisms that could potentially result in greater radiogenic lung cancer risks for women. The first of these is that radiation exposure increases the relative risk for a molecular subtype of spontaneous lung cancer that occurs predominantly in women. The second is that is that sex chromosome or gene expression differences between men and women places women at greater risk. The third is that hormonal differences between men and women, particularly for estrogen levels, puts women at greater risk. The fourth mechanism is that sex differences in immune system function underlie a sex difference in radiation associated lung cancer risk.None of these mechanisms hasyet been proven to play a role in radiogenic lung cancer risk.

radiation↗

Cancer Risk Map for the Surface of Mars

We discuss calculations of the median and 95th percentile cancer risks on the surface of Mars for different solar conditions. The NASA Space Radiation Cancer Risk 2010 model is used to estimate gender and age specific cancer incidence and mortality risks for astronauts exploring Mars. Organ specific fluence spectra and doses for large solar particle events (SPE) and galactic cosmic rays (GCR) at various levels of solar activity are simulated using the HZETRN/QMSFRG computer code, and the 2010 version of the Badhwar and O Neill GCR model. The NASA JSC propensity model of SPE fluence and occurrence is used to consider upper bounds on SPE fluence for increasing mission lengths. In the transport of particles through the Mars atmosphere, a vertical distribution of Mars atmospheric thickness is calculated from the temperature and pressure data of Mars Global Surveyor, and the directional cosine distribution is implemented to describe the spherically distributed atmospheric distance along the slant path at each elevation on Mars. The resultant directional shielding by Mars atmosphere at each elevation is coupled with vehicle and body shielding for organ dose estimates. Astronaut cancer risks are mapped on the global topography of Mars, which was measured by the Mars Orbiter Laser Altimeter. Variation of cancer risk on the surface of Mars is due to a 16-km elevation range, and the large difference is obtained between the Tharsis Montes (Ascraeus, Pavonis, and Arsia) and the Hellas impact basin. Cancer incidence risks are found to be about 2-fold higher than mortality risks with a disproportionate increase in skin and thyroid cancers for all astronauts and breast cancer risk for female astronauts. The number of safe days on Mars to be below radiation limits at the 95th percent confidence level is reported for several Mission design scenarios.

Kim, Myung-Hee Y.↗

CHRNA5 rs16969968 polymorphism is associated with lung cancer risk: A meta‐analysis

Abstract Objective To evaluate the genetic association between rs16969968 and lung cancer risk by meta‐analysis. Data source We searched eligible studies from MEDLINE, Web of Science and EMBASE up to Dec, 2017. Study selection Association studies concerning rs16969968 and lung cancer risk were included. We assessed the association strength between this polymorphism and risk of lung cancer by calculating odds ratios (OR) and 95% confidence interval (95%CI). Results A total of 26 data sets comprising 30 772 lung cancers and 90 954 controls were included. rs16969968 was found to be associated with lung cancer risk in population of European ancestry in all models (A vs. G: OR = 1.30, 95%CI 1.27‐1.33, P < 0.001; AA + GA vs. GG: OR = 1.38, 95%CI 1.33‐1.43, P < 0.001; AA vs. GG + GA: OR = 1.45, 95%CI 1.38‐1.53, P < 0.001), consistent with previous genome‐wide association study (GWAS). However, no association was observed in Asians (A vs. G: OR = 1.19. 95%CI 0.95‐1.49, P = 0.131). The minor allele A may increase the risk of lung cancer in both smokers (OR = 1.33, 95%CI 1.29‐1.39, P < 0.001) and nonsmokers (OR = 1.25, 95%CI 1.12‐1.39, P < 0.001). There was no obvious publication bias in all analyses. Conclusions Our analysis provided more evidence that rs16969968 is a susceptibility locus of lung cancer in the Caucasians and that it may be not associated with the risk in the Asians.

Zhou, Wei↗

Evaluating Shielding Effectiveness for Reducing Space Radiation Cancer Risks

We discuss calculations of probability distribution functions (PDF) representing uncertainties in projecting fatal cancer risk from galactic cosmic rays (GCR) and solar particle events (SPE). The PDF s are used in significance tests of the effectiveness of potential radiation shielding approaches. Uncertainties in risk coefficients determined from epidemiology data, dose and dose-rate reduction factors, quality factors, and physics models of radiation environments are considered in models of cancer risk PDF s. Competing mortality risks and functional correlations in radiation quality factor uncertainties are treated in the calculations. We show that the cancer risk uncertainty, defined as the ratio of the 95% confidence level (CL) to the point estimate is about 4-fold for lunar and Mars mission risk projections. For short-stay lunar missions (<180 d), SPE s present the most significant risk, however one that is mitigated effectively by shielding, especially for carbon composites structures with high hydrogen content. In contrast, for long duration lunar (>180 d) or Mars missions, GCR risks may exceed radiation risk limits, with 95% CL s exceeding 10% fatal risk for males and females on a Mars mission. For reducing GCR cancer risks, shielding materials are marginally effective because of the penetrating nature of GCR and secondary radiation produced in tissue by relativistic particles. At the present time, polyethylene or carbon composite shielding can not be shown to significantly reduce risk compared to aluminum shielding based on a significance test that accounts for radiobiology uncertainties in GCR risk projection.

Cucinotta, Francis A.↗