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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 19 records
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS2020

Fuel availability not fire weather controls boreal wildfire severity and carbon emissions

Carbon (C) emissions from wildfires are a key terrestrial–atmosphere interaction that influences global atmospheric composi-tion and climate. Positive feedbacks between climate warming and boreal wildfires are predicted based on top-down controls of fire weather and climate, but C emissions from boreal fires may also depend on bottom-up controls of fuel availability related to edaphic controls and overstory tree composition. Here we synthesized data from 417 field sites spanning six ecoregions in the northwestern North American boreal forest and assessed the network of interactions among potential bottom-up and top-down drivers of C emissions. Our results indicate that C emissions are more strongly driven by fuel availability than by fire weather, highlighting the importance of fine-scale drainage conditions, overstory tree species composition and fuel accumulation rates for predicting total C emissions. By implication, climate change-induced modification of fuels needs to be considered for accu-rately predicting future C emissions from boreal wildfires.

X J Walker↗
DOE OSTI2017

Black carbon emissions in Russia: A critical review

Russia has a particularly important role regarding black carbon (BC) emissions given the extent of its territory above the Arctic Circle, where BC emissions have a particularly pronounced effect on the climate. This study presents a comprehensive review of BC estimates from a range of studies. We assess underlying methodologies and data sources for each major emissions source based on their level of detail, accuracy and extent to which they represent current conditions. We then present reference values for each major emissions source. In the case of flaring, the study presents new estimates drawing on data on Russian associated petroleum gas and the most recent satellite data on flaring. We also present estimates of organic carbon (OC) for each source, either based on the reference studies or from our own calculations. In addition, the study provides uncertainty estimates for each source. Total BC emissions are estimated at 689 Gg in 2014, with an uncertainty range between (407-1,416), while OC emissions are 9,228 Gg (with uncertainty between 5,595 and 14,728). Wildfires dominated and contributed about 83% of the total BC emissions, however the effect on radiative forcing is mitigated by OC emissions. We also present an adjusted estimate of Arctic forcing from Russian OC and BC emissions. In recent years, Russia has pursued policies to reduce flaring and limit particulate emissions from on-road transport, both of which appear to significantly contribute to the lower emissions and forcing values found in this study.

Black carbon↗
DOE OSTI2016

Russia's black carbon emissions: focus on diesel sources

Black carbon (BC) is a significant climate forcer with a particularly pronounced forcing effect in polar regions such as the Russian Arctic. Diesel combustion is a major global source of BC emissions, accounting for 25–30 % of all BC emissions. While the demand for diesel is growing in Russia, the country's diesel emissions are poorly understood. This paper presents a detailed inventory of Russian BC emissions from diesel sources. Drawing on a complete Russian vehicle registry with detailed information about vehicle types and emission standards, this paper analyzes BC emissions from diesel on-road vehicles. We use the COPERT emission model (COmputer Programme to calculate Emissions from Road Transport) with Russia-specific emission factors for all types of on-road vehicles. On-road diesel vehicles emitted 21 Gg of BC in 2014: heavy-duty trucks account for 60% of the on-road BC emissions, while cars represent only 5% (light commercial vehicles and buses account for the remainder). Using Russian activity data and fuel-based emission factors, the paper also presents BC emissions from diesel locomotives and ships, off-road engines in industry, construction and agriculture, and generators. The study also factors in the role of superemitters in BC emissions from diesel on-road vehicles and off-road sources. The total emissions from diesel sources in Russia are estimated to be 49 Gg of BC and 17 Gg of organic carbon (OC) in 2014. Off-road diesel sources emitted 58% of all diesel BC in Russia.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2013

Final Report: Wireless Instrument for Automated Measurement of Clean Cookstove Usage and Black Carbon Emissions

Black carbon (BC) emissions from traditional cooking fires and other sources are significant anthropogenic drivers of radiative forcing. Clean cookstoves present a more energy-efficient and cleaner-burning vehicle for cooking than traditional wood-burning stoves, yet many existing cookstoves reduce emissions by only modest amounts. Further research into cookstove use, fuel types, and verification of emissions is needed as adoption rates for such stoves remain low. Accelerated innovation requires techniques for measuring and verifying such cookstove performance. The overarching goal of the proposed program was to develop a low-cost, wireless instrument to provide a high-resolution profile of the cookstove BC emissions and usage in the field. We proposed transferring the complexity of analysis away from the sampling hardware at the measurement site and to software at a centrally located server to easily analyze data from thousands of sampling instruments. We were able to build a low-cost field-based instrument that produces repeatable, low-cost estimates of cookstove usage, fuel estimates, and emission values with low variability. Emission values from our instrument were consistent with published ranges of emissions for similar stove and fuel types.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗
DOE OSTI2016

Potential carbon emissions dominated by carbon dioxide from thawed permafrost soils

Increasing temperatures in northern high latitudes are causing permafrost to thaw, making large amounts of previously frozen organic matter vulnerable to microbial decomposition. Permafrost thaw also creates a fragmented landscape of drier and wetter soil conditions that determine the amount and form (carbon dioxide (CO2), or methane (CH4)) of carbon (C) released to the atmosphere. The rate and form of C release control the magnitude of the permafrost C feedback, so their relative contribution with a warming climate remains unclear. We quantified the effect of increasing temperature and changes from aerobic to anaerobic soil conditions using 25 soil incubation studies from the permafrost zone. Here we show, using two separate meta-analyses, that a 10 C increase in incubation temperature increased C release by a factor of 2.0 (95% confidence interval (CI), 1.8 to 2.2). Under aerobic incubation conditions, soils released 3.4 (95% CI, 2.2 to 5.2) times more C than under anaerobic conditions. Even when accounting for the higher heat trapping capacity of CH4, soils released 2.3 (95% CI, 1.5 to 3.4) times more C under aerobic conditions. These results imply that permafrost ecosystems thawing under aerobic conditions and releasing CO2 will strengthen the permafrost C feedback more than waterlogged systemsreleasingCO2 andCH4 for a given amount of C.

Schadel, Christina↗
DOE OSTI2021

The effect of price-based demand response on carbon emissions in European electricity markets: The importance of adequate carbon prices

Price-based demand response (PBDR) has recently been attributed great economic but also environmental potential. However, the determination of its short-term effects on carbon emissions requires the knowledge of marginal emission factors (MEFs), which compared to grid mix emission factors (XEFs), are cumbersome to calculate due to the complex characteristics of national electricity markets. This study, therefore, proposes two merit order-based methods to approximate hourly MEFs and applies them to readily available datasets from 20 European countries for the years 2017–2019. Based on the calculated electricity prices, standardized daily load shifts were simulated which indicated that carbon emissions increased for 8 of the 20 countries and by 2.1% on average. Thus, under specific circumstances, PBDR leads to carbon emissions increases, mainly due to the economic advantage fuel sources such as lignite and coal have in the merit order. MEF-based load shifts reduced the mean resulting carbon emissions by 35%, albeit with 56% lower monetary cost savings compared to price-based load shifts. Finally, by repeating the load shift simulations for different carbon price levels, the impact of the carbon price on the resulting carbon emissions was analyzed. The Spearman correlation coefficient between carbon intensity and marginal cost along the German merit order substantially increased with increasing carbon price. The coefficients were -0.13 for the 2019 carbon price of 24.9 €/t, 0 for 42.6 €/t, and 0.4 for 100.0 €/t. Therefore, with adequate carbon prices, PBDR can be an effective tool for both economical and environmental improvement.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2015

Research on impacts of population-related factors on carbon emissions in Beijing from 1984 to 2012

Carbon emissions related to population factors have aroused great attention around the world. A multitude of literature mainly focused on single demographic impacts on environmental issues at the national level, and comprehensive studies concerning population-related factors at a city level are rare. This paper employed STIRPAT (Stochastic Impacts by Regression on Population, Affluence and Technology) model incorporating PLS (Partial least squares) regression method to examine the influence of population-related factors on carbon emissions in Beijing from 1984 to 2012. Empirically results manifest that urbanization is the paramount driver. Changes in population age structure have significantly positive impacts on carbon emissions, and shrinking young population, continuous expansion of working age population and aging population will keep on increasing environmental pressures. Meanwhile, shrinking household size and expanding floating population boost the discharge of carbon emissions. Besides, per capita consumption is an important contributor of carbon emissions, while industry energy intensity is the main inhibitory factor. Based upon these findings and the specific circumstances of Beijing, policies such as promoting clean and renewable energy, improving population quality and advocating low carbon lifestyles should be enhanced to achieve targeted emissions reductions. - Highlights: • We employed the STIRPAT model to identify population-related factors of carbon emissions in Beijing. • Urbanization is the paramount driver of carbon emissions. • Changes in population age structure exert significantly positive impacts on carbon emissions. • Shrinking household size, expanding floating population and improving consumption level increase carbon emissions. • Industry energy intensity decreases carbon emissions.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2019

Variability, timescales, and nonlinearity in climate responses to black carbon emissions

Black carbon (BC) particles exert a potentially large warming influence onthe Earth system. Reductions in BC emissions have attracted attention as apossible means to moderate near-term temperature changes. For the first time,we evaluate regional climate responses, nonlinearity, and short-termtransient responses to BC emission perturbations in the Arctic, midlatitudes,and globally based on a comprehensive set of emission-driven experimentsusing the Community Earth System Model (CESM). Surface temperature responsesto BC emissions are complex, with surface warming over land from midlatitudeBC perturbations partially offset by ocean cooling. Climate responses do notscale linearly with emissions. While stronger BC emission perturbations havea higher burden efficiency, their temperature sensitivity is lower. BCimpacts temperature much faster than greenhouse gas forcing, with transienttemperature responses in the Arctic and midlatitudes approaching aquasi-equilibrium state with a timescale of 2–3 years. We find largevariability in BC-induced climate changes due to background model noise. As aresult, removing present-day BC emissions results in discernible surfacetemperature changes for only limited regions of the globe. In order to betterunderstand the climatic impacts of BC emissions, both the drivers ofnonlinear responses and response variability need to be assessed acrossclimate models.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Black carbon emissions and reduction potential in China: 2015–2050

Black carbon is a product of the incomplete combustion of carbonaceous fuels and has significant adverse effects on climate change, air quality, and human health. China has been a major contributor to global anthropogenic black carbon emissions. This study develops a black carbon inventory in China, using 2015 as the base year, and projects annual black carbon emissions in China for the period 2016–2050, under two scenarios: a Reference scenario and an Accelerated Reduction scenario. The study estimates that the total black carbon emissions in China in 2015 were 1100 thousand tons (kt), with residential use being the biggest contributor, accounting for more than half of the total black carbon emissions, followed by coke production, industry, agricultural waste burning, and transportation. This study then projects the total black carbon emissions in China in 2050 to be 278 kt in the Reference scenario and 86 kt in the Accelerated Reduction Scenario. Compared to the Reference scenario, the Accelerated Reduction scenario will achieve much faster and deeper black carbon reductions in all the sectors. The dramatic reductions can be attributed to the fuel switching in the residential sector, faster implementation of high-efficiency emission control measures in the industry, transportation, and coke production sectors, and faster phase-out of agricultural waste open burning. This analysis reveals the high potential of black carbon emission reductions across multiple sectors in China through the next thirty years.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2018

Can urbanization process and carbon emission abatement be harmonious? New evidence from China

Highlights: • We study the effect and its mechanism of urbanization process on carbon emissions. • We use threshold regression and mediating effect models at China's provincial-level. • Urbanization and carbon emission abatement in China can achieve a harmonious state. • Abatement effect of urbanization on carbon emissions weakens with a deepening urbanization. • The relationship between urbanization and carbon emissions is mediated by some factors. - Abstract: As the largest carbon emitter and developing country in the world, China's rapid urbanization in recent decades plays a significant role in carbon emissions. However, there is still no consensus on whether urbanization process and carbon emission abatement in China can achieve a harmonious state. Based on the panel data of China's 30 provincial-level regions during 2001–2014, this paper uses the threshold regression model and the mediating effect model to investigate the effect and its mechanism of urbanization process on carbon emissions measured by three indicators: carbon emission scale, per capita carbon emissions, and carbon intensity. The results show that urbanization can contribute to declines in carbon emission scale, per capita carbon emissions, and carbon intensity. That is to say, urbanization can present an abatement effect on carbon emissions. However, such an abatement effect is diminishing with a deepening urbanization. Moreover, the relationship between urbanization and carbon emissions is mediated by four mediating variables, i.e., technological progress, industrial structure, energy consumption structure, and foreign direct investment. Therefore, a harmonious relationship between urbanization and carbon emission abatement can be achieved if policy-makers attempt to arouse the positive mediation roles of such factors when formulating relevant policies.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Widespread underestimation of rain-induced soil carbon emissions from global drylands

Dryland carbon fluxes, particularly those driven by ecosystem respiration, are highly sensitive to water availability and rain pulses. However, the magnitude of rain-induced carbon emissions remains unclear globally. Here we quantify the impact of rain-pulse events on the carbon balance of global drylands and characterize their spatiotemporal controls. Using eddy-covariance observations of carbon, water and energy fluxes from 34 dryland sites worldwide, we produce an inventory of over 1,800 manually identified rain-induced CO2 pulse events. Based on this inventory, a machine learning algorithm is developed to automatically detect rain-induced CO2 pulse events. Our findings show that existing partitioning methods underestimate ecosystem respiration and photosynthesis by up to 30% during rain-pulse events, which annually contribute 16.9 ± 2.8% of ecosystem respiration and 9.6 ± 2.2% of net ecosystem productivity. We show that the carbon loss intensity correlates most strongly with annual productivity, aridity and soil pH. Finally, we identify a universal decay rate of rain-induced CO2 pulses and use it to bias-correct respiration estimates. Our research highlights the importance of rain-induced carbon emissions for the carbon balance of global drylands and suggests that ecosystem models may largely underrepresent the influence of rain pulses on the carbon cycle of drylands.

Nguyen, Ngoc B↗
DOE OSTI2015

Russian anthropogenic black carbon: Emission reconstruction and Arctic black carbon simulation

Development of reliable source emission inventories is needed to advance the understanding of the origin of Arctic haze using chemical transport modeling. This paper develops a regional anthropogenic black carbon (BC) emission inventory for the Russian Federation, the largest country by land area in the Arctic Council. Activity data from combination of local Russia information and international resources, emission factors based on either Russian documents or adjusted values for local conditions, and other emission source data are used to approximate the BC emissions. Emissions are gridded at a resolution of 0.1° × 0.1° and developed into a monthly temporal profile. Total anthropogenic BC emission of Russia in 2010 is estimated to be around 224 Gg. Gas flaring, a commonly ignored black carbon source, contributes a significant fraction of 36.2% to Russia's total anthropogenic BC emissions. Other sectors, i.e., residential, transportation, industry, and power plants, contribute 25.0%, 20.3%, 13.1%, and 5.4%, respectively. Three major BC hot spot regions are identified: the European part of Russia, the southern central part of Russia where human population densities are relatively high, and the Urals Federal District where Russia's major oil and gas fields are located but with sparse human population. BC simulations are conducted using the hemispheric version of Community Multi-scale Air Quality Model with emission inputs from a global emission database EDGAR (Emissions Database for Global Atmospheric Research)-HTAPv2 (Hemispheric Transport of Air Pollution) and EDGAR-HTAPv2 with its Russian part replaced by the newly developed Russian BC emissions, respectively. The simulation using the new Russian BC emission inventory could improve 30–65% of absorption aerosol optical depth measured at the AERONET sites in Russia throughout the whole year as compared to that using the default HTAPv2 emissions. At the four ground monitoring sites (Zeppelin, Barrow, Alert, and Tiksi) in the Arctic Circle, surface BC simulations are improved the most during the Arctic haze periods (October–March). The poor performance of Arctic BC simulations in previous studies may be partly ascribed to the Russian BC emissions built on out-of-date and/or missing information, which could result in biases to both emission rates and the spatial distribution of emissions. Finally, this study highlights that the impact of Russian emissions on the Arctic haze has likely been underestimated, and its role in the Arctic climate system needs to be reassessed. The Russian black carbon emission source data generated in this study can be obtained via http://abci.ornl.gov/download.shtml or http://acs.engr.utk.edu/Data.php.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2018

Reducing energy consumption and carbon emissions of magnesia refractory products: A life-cycle perspective

China is the largest producer of magnesia refractory materials and products in the world, resulting in significant energy consumption and carbon emissions. This paper analyzes measures to reduce both the energy consumption and carbon emissions in the production phase and use phase, providing a theoretical basis for a sustainable magnesia refractory industry. Results show that the total carbon emissions of carbon-containing magnesia bricks produced with fused magnesia are much higher than those of other products, and the total carbon emissions of both general magnesia brick and magnesia-carbon spray are lower than those of other products. Carbon emissions of magnesia products are mainly concentrated in the production process of magnesia. Manufacturers should select materials with lower environmental impacts and emphasize saving energy and reducing carbon emissions in the magnesia production process. Through scenario analysis we found that CO 2 capture is an effective measure to reduce carbon emissions compared with just improving energy consumption. However, a robust CO 2 market does not currently exist. Policy makers should plan on integrating CO 2 capture in the magnesia industry into a regional CO 2 capture and storage development planning in the long term. In particular, magnesia production is concentrated in a single geographical area which would and thus could take advantage of significant scale effects. Finally, in the use phase, extending the service lifetime reduces carbon emissions over the product lifetime, thus users should attempt to extend the service lifetime of a furnace as a whole. However, results show that it is not advisable to add a large number of repair refractories to extend the lifetime of existing furnaces.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
DOE OSTI2012

The impacts of population change on carbon emissions in China during 1978-2008

This study examines the impacts of population size, population structure, and consumption level on carbon emissions in China from 1978 to 2008. To this end, we expanded the stochastic impacts by regression on population, affluence, and technology model and used the ridge regression method, which overcomes the negative influences of multicollinearity among independent variables under acceptable bias. Results reveal that changes in consumption level and population structure were the major impact factors, not changes in population size. Consumption level and carbon emissions were highly correlated. In terms of population structure, urbanization, population age, and household size had distinct effects on carbon emissions. Urbanization increased carbon emissions, while the effect of age acted primarily through the expansion of the labor force and consequent overall economic growth. Shrinking household size increased residential consumption, resulting in higher carbon emissions. Households, rather than individuals, are a more reasonable explanation for the demographic impact on carbon emissions. Potential social policies for low carbon development are also discussed. - Highlights: Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer We examine the impacts of population change on carbon emissions in China. Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer We expand the STIRPAT model by containing population structure factors in the model. Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer The population structure includes age structure, urbanization level, and household size. Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer The ridge regression method is used to estimate the model with multicollinearity. Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer The population structure plays a more important role compared with the population size.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Decarbonizing the grid: Utilizing demand-side flexibility for carbon emission reduction through locational marginal emissions in distribution networks

Decarbonization of the electric grid has become an important world-wide priority and is actively happening in many ways by introducing innovations and new technologies from the generation sectors to the demand sectors. In particular, one promising pathway toward such net-zero carbon emissions is to utilize the demand-side flexibility with the increasing number of flexible loads in distribution networks. In this paper, we explore a load shifting strategy with the emerging concept of location marginal emissions (LMEs) to reduce carbon emissions. LMEs measure the impact of carbon emissions including the locational aspect in more granular way and thus provide a novel mechanism for the system operator and load aggregators to design the LME-based load shifting strategy, which can efficiently guide consumers and thus adjust their consumption behaviors. Simulation case studies on the IEEE test networks are performed to validate the capability of the proposed load shifting method to reduce carbon emissions. We also compare this with other relevant strategies to discuss multiple scenarios and corresponding results. Finally, while each provides a different level of flexibility, all the explored strategies tested have led to solutions that have lower carbon emissions, indicating the great potential of demand-side flexibility in reducing carbon emissions for future distribution networks.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
NASA NTRS2017

Forest Carbon Emissions from Cropland Expansion in the Brazilian Cerrado Biome

Land use, land use change, and forestry accounted for two-thirds of Brazil's greenhouse gas emissions profile in 2005. Amazon deforestation has declined by more than 80% over the past decade, yet Brazil's forests extend beyond the Amazon biome. Rapid expansion of cropland in the neighboring Cerrado biome has the potential to undermine climate mitigation efforts if emissions from dry forest and woodland conversion negate some of the benefits of avoided Amazon deforestation. Here, we used satellite data on cropland expansion, forest cover, and vegetation carbon stocks to estimate annual gross forest carbon emissions from cropland expansion in the Cerrado biome. Nearly half of the Cerrado met Brazil's definition of forest cover in 2000 (greater than or equal to 0.5 ha with greater than or equal to 10% canopy cover). In areas of established crop production, conversion of both forest and non-forest Cerrado formations for cropland declined during 2003-2013. However, forest carbon emissions from cropland expansion increased over the past decade in Matopiba, a new frontier of agricultural production that includes portions of Maranhao, Tocantins, Piau­, and Bahia states. Gross carbon emissions from cropland expansion in the Cerrado averaged 16.28 Tg C yr (exp -1) between 2003 and 2013, with forest-to-cropland conversion accounting for 29% of emissions. The fraction of forest carbon emissions from Matopiba was much higher; between 2010-2013, large-scale cropland conversion in Matopiba contributed 45% of total Cerrado forest carbon emissions. Carbon emissions from Cerrado-tocropland transitions offset 5-7% of the avoided emissions from reduced Amazon deforestation rates during 2011-2013. Comprehensive national estimates of forest carbon fluxes, including all biomes, are critical to detect cross-biome leakage within countries and achieve climate mitigation targets to reduce emissions from land use, land use change, and forestry.

remote sensing↗
DOE OSTI2022

Feasibility Study of Real-Time Carbon Emission Responsive Electric Vehicle Charging Control in Buildings: Preprint

With the progressing electrification of the transportation sector, the source of carbon emissions is gradually shifting from fossil fuel to grid electricity because of electric vehicles (EVs). The carbon intensity of the grid can fluctuate significantly within hours due to the time-varying power generation mix. Therefore, shifting EV charging loads to cleaner hours in response to the carbon intensity signals can reduce carbon emissions. Existing EV charging control methods typically consider the electricity price or the available generation by distributed energy resources (e.g., photovoltaics) to inform decision-making. Such methods tend to reduce energy costs but may neglect the environmental impact of EV charging activities. We propose and compare four carbon emission responsive EV charging controllers with various control rules. The proposed controllers are evaluated based on simulation experiments using metrics such as carbon emission reduction potential, state of charge (SOC) at departure, and peak demand. We found that the need of EV owners to have full batteries at departure could lead to an emission increase when the curtailed EV charge was compensated before departure. Further, up to 12.7% of carbon emission reduction can be achieved if the EV owners reduce the target SOC at departure by less than 15%.

carbon emission↗