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Results for “Cascading effects”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 19 records
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2023

Grassland intensification effects cascade to alter multifunctionality of wetlands within metaecosystems

Sustainable agricultural intensification could improve ecosystem service multifunctionality, yet empirical evidence remains tenuous, especially regarding consequences for spatially coupled ecosystems connected by flows across ecosystem boundaries (i.e., metaecosystems). Here we aim to understand the effects of land-use intensification on multiple ecosystem services of spatially connected grasslands and wetlands, where management practices were applied to grasslands but not directly imposed to wetlands. We synthesize long-term datasets encompassing 53 physical, chemical, and biological indicators, comprising >11,000 field measurements. Our results reveal that intensification promotes high-quality forage and livestock production in both grasslands and wetlands, but at the expense of water quality regulation, methane mitigation, non-native species invasion resistance, and biodiversity. Land-use intensification weakens relationships among ecosystem services. The effects on grasslands cascade to alter multifunctionality of embedded natural wetlands within the metaecosystems to a similar extent. These results highlight the importance of considering spatial flows of resources and organisms when studying land-use intensification effects on metaecosystems as well as when designing grassland and wetland management practices to improve landscape multifunctionality.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2026

The Cascade Effectiveness of 3-Terminal Tandem Photocathode Architectures as Applied to CO 2 Reduction

Cascade catalysis for photoelectrochemical CO 2 reduction (CO 2 R) decouples the overall reaction into sequential steps occurring on separately optimized catalysts (for example, Ag and Cu) between which an intermediate species such as CO is transferred. A 3-terminal tandem (3TT) photovoltaic architecture advantageously holds two different catalytic regions at different potentials under a single illumination source, but its overall efficiency is low. Using a stochastic reaction-diffusion model, we have examined 3TT photocathode design principles, focusing on the coupling of surface chemistry and transport of CO both inside the boundary layer and outward, into the bulk electrolyte. We find that ensuring that the lateral diffusion distance within the boundary layer is short compared to the boundary layer thickness and controlling bulk flow are key, with interdigitated designs showing an overall conversion efficiency improvement by 2 orders of magnitude compared to the side-by-side case without flow. These findings can be adapted for other cascaded architectures.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2025

Effects cascade debris and helium bubbles on the strength of aged plutonium

The radioactive decay of aging Pu is dominated by α-decay. This persistent α-decay produces crystalline defects in the form of dislocation loops and helium bubbles that evolve with time. Comparable defects are produced in other metallic alloys when subject to neutron irradiation, and these defects are known to modify the plastic deformation of irradiated materials. Models have been developed for these irradiated materials and validated against experimental confirmations of yield strength and the concomitant microstructural evolution. In this paper, we deploy those previously developed models and apply their mechanics to plutonium aging.

Chemical elements↗
DOE OSTI2026

Reaction Diffusion Modelling of 3D Pillar Electrodes in Single-Catalyst CO 2 Reduction Cascades

Effective electrochemical CO 2 reduction to liquid fuels requires that the local catalytic environment facilitates the desired reactivity, yet a microscopic understanding of this environment is difficult to achieve from experiment alone. In this work, a 3D reaction-diffusion model was developed to explore the effects of electrode surface area and local geometry on the performance of a heterogeneous catalyst that performs a two-step CO 2 reduction cascade reaction to CO and then CH 3 OH under aqueous conditions. Kinetic parameters for the model were inspired by experimental results using a cobalt phthalocyanine (CoPc) catalyst. Three-dimensional architectures composed of arrays of square pillars with varying dimensions and either smooth or periodically modulated surfaces were tested, revealing the extent to which geometry modulates the performance of the cascade reactions. Although structural variations modulate local concentration gradients, we find that electrochemically active surface area predominantly governs the overall cascade reaction. Moreover, the results suggest that supersaturation of CO, with concentrations up to ten-fold higher than the equilibrium solubility limit, might be critical for more efficient conversion to CH 3 OH. For any given geometry, the spatially averaged ratio of [CO] to [CO 2 ] is dictated by the electrochemically active surface area and determines the yield of CH 3 OH. For a fixed surface area, geometries that spatially confine the electrolyte yield moderate local [CO] to [CO 2 ] ratios within small volumes. In contrast, less confining geometries result in a broader distribution of local ratios spread over larger volumes, with both configurations yielding the same spatially averaged [CO] to [CO 2 ] ratio. These insights provide valuable design principles—highlighting the critical importance of surface area and possibly CO supersaturation—for engineering advanced electrode architectures that leverage intermediate trapping and CO supersaturation to enhance overall performance in tandem CO 2 reduction systems.

COMSOL↗
DOE OSTI2023

Molecular Rotations, Multiscale Order, Hyperuniformity, and Signatures of Metastability during the Compression/Decompression Cycles of Amorphous Ices

We model, via large-scale molecular dynamics simulations, the isothermal compression of low-density amorphous ice (LDA) to generate high-density amorphous ice (HDA) and the corresponding decompression extending to negative pressures to recover the low-density amorphous phase (LDA HDA ). Both LDA and HDA are nearly hyperuniform and are characterized by a dynamical HBN, showing that amorphous ices are nonstatic materials and implying that nearly hyperuniformity can be accommodated in dynamical networks. In correspondence with both the LDA-to-HDA and the HDA-to-LDA HDA phase transitions, the (partial) activation of rotational degrees of freedom activates a cascade effect that induces a drastic change in the connectivity and a pervasive reorganization of the HBN topology which, ultimately, break the samples’ hyperuniform character. Key to this effect is the rapid rate at which changes occur, and not their magnitude. The inspection of structural properties from the short- to the long-range shows that signatures of metastability are present at all length-scales, hence providing further solid evidence in support of the liquid–liquid critical point scenario. LDA and LDA HDA differ in terms of HBN and structural properties, implying that they are distinct low-density glasses. Our work unveils the role of molecular rotations in the phase transitions between amorphous ices and shows how the unfreezing of rotational degrees of freedom generates a cascade effect that propagates over multiple length-scales. Our findings greatly improve our basic understanding of water and amorphous ices and can potentially impact the field of molecular network-forming materials at large.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗
DOE OSTI2023

Further understanding “severe” climate risk

What makes one climate risk more “severe” or “dangerous” than others? Acknowledging that the notion of dangerousness can substantially vary from one sociocultural context to another, this Perspective paper builds on recent literature to explore three notions that are estimated to be foundational to climate risk severity: the physical, ecological and social thresholds leading to transformational and possibly abrupt changes; the irreversibility of these changes; and the cascading effects within and across the systems affected. While not necessarily the most determining dimensions of risk, they deserve more attention and integration into frameworks to assess “severe” climate risk, such frameworks remaining under-developed. The paper also takes stock of issues related to the spatial scale(s) of and the evidence base for severe climate risks. It lands on four intertwined research directions across geographies, sectors and populations, that are hypothesized to play a critical role in the coming decade, from feeding the next IPCC cycle to more broadly supporting the development of anticipatory adaptation policies.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Impacts of humic substances, elevated temperature, and UVB radiation on bacterial communities of the marine sponge Chondrilla sp

Abstract Sponges are abundant components of coral reefs known for their filtration capabilities and intricate interactions with microbes. They play a crucial role in maintaining the ecological balance of coral reefs. Humic substances (HS) affect bacterial communities across terrestrial, freshwater, and marine ecosystems. However, the specific effects of HS on sponge-associated microbial symbionts have largely been neglected. Here, we used a randomized-controlled microcosm setup to investigate the independent and interactive effects of HS, elevated temperature, and UVB radiation on bacterial communities associated with the sponge Chondrilla sp. Our results indicated the presence of a core bacterial community consisting of relatively abundant members, apparently resilient to the tested environmental perturbations, alongside a variable bacterial community. Elevated temperature positively affected the relative abundances of ASVs related to Planctomycetales and members of the families Pseudohongiellaceae and Hyphomonadaceae. HS increased the relative abundances of several ASVs potentially involved in recalcitrant organic matter degradation (e.g., the BD2-11 terrestrial group, Saccharimonadales, and SAR202 clade). There was no significant independent effect of UVB and there were no significant interactive effects of HS, heat, and UVB on bacterial diversity and composition. The significant, independent impact of HS on the composition of sponge bacterial communities suggests that alterations to HS inputs may have cascading effects on adjacent marine ecosystems.

Stuij, Tamara M. (ORCID:0000000152170798)↗
DOE OSTI2026

Synergy and antagonism in a genome-scale model of metabolic hijacking by bacteriophages

Bacteriophage auxiliary metabolic genes (AMGs) alter host metabolism by hijacking reactions, but previous studies mostly inferred their roles from annotations, ignoring system-wide impacts and phage production. Here we integrate AMGs and phage assembly into a genome-scale metabolic model of Prochloroccocus marinus MED4 infected by P-HM2. We show that 17 directly hijacked reactions substantially affect more than 30% of the reactions in MED4 metabolism, including carbon fixation, photosynthesis, and nucleotide synthesis, distinguishing these AMGs as either phage aligned—shifting feasible reaction velocities in accordance with maximal phage production—or phage antialigned. Pareto optimization reveals that phage-aligned reactions alter phage-host growth trade-offs, while phage-antialigned reactions do not. We experimentally validate our predictions of system-level AMG impacts by measuring the N-dependent effect of P-HM2 cp12 expression on growth in a model relative of the genetically intractable MED4, Synechococcus elongatus. We also show that AMGs’ indirect impacts are synergistically and antagonistically coupled, providing systems-level insight into AMG perturbations and highlighting how nontrivial cascading effects shape host metabolism.

Rozum, Jordan C. [Pacific Northwest National Labor↗
DOE OSTI2026

Integrative analysis of CAM photosynthesis reveals its impact on primary metabolism in Yucca

Crassulacean Acid Metabolism (CAM) is an adaptation that temporally separates carbon uptake at night from photosynthesis during the day. CAM has evolved repeatedly across vascular plants, as its emergence may depend on simple regulatory changes to deeply conserved metabolic pathways. Modern CAM research relies heavily on interpretation of transcriptomic data, though regulation occurs at multiple levels following transcription. Additionally, while most research to date has focused on a handful of genes and metabolites in the core CAM pathway, the co-option of conserved regulatory and functional genes is bound to have wide-ranging effects on other aspects of primary metabolism. In this study, we integrate transcriptomic, proteomic, and metabolomic data to compare primary metabolism between the CAM species Yucca aloifolia and closely related C 3 species, Y. filamentosa. We observe minimal correlation between protein abundance and mRNA expression, suggesting significant post-transcriptional regulation in CAM species. We also find evidence of shifts in gene expression and metabolite accumulation outside of the central CAM pathway, suggesting that the shift to CAM has cascading effects across primary metabolism, especially nitrogen metabolism. Our findings provide insights into the metabolic shifts associated with CAM evolution, and highlight the complexity of its regulation at multiple biological levels.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Rapidly Changing Range Limits in a Warming World: Critical Data Limitations and Knowledge Gaps for Advancing Understanding of Mangrove Range Dynamics in the Southeastern USA

Climate change is altering species’ range limits and transforming ecosystems. For example, warming temperatures are leading to the range expansion of tropical, cold-sensitive species at the expense of their cold-tolerant counterparts. In some temperate and subtropical coastal wetlands, warming winters are enabling mangrove forest encroachment into salt marsh, which is a major regime shift that has significant ecological and societal ramifications. Here, we synthesized existing data and expert knowledge to assess the distribution of mangroves near rapidly changing range limits in the southeastern USA. We used expert elicitation to identify data limitations and highlight knowledge gaps for advancing understanding of past, current, and future range dynamics. Mangroves near poleward range limits are often shorter, wider, and more shrublike compared to their tropical counterparts that grow as tall forests in freeze-free, resource-rich environments. The northern range limits of mangroves in the southeastern USA are particularly dynamic and climate sensitive due to abundance of suitable coastal wetland habitat and the exposure of mangroves to winter temperature extremes that are much colder than comparable range limits on other continents. Thus, there is need for methodological refinements and improved spatiotemporal data regarding changes in mangrove structure and abundance near northern range limits in the southeastern USA. Advancing understanding of rapidly changing range limits is critical for foundation plant species such as mangroves, as it provides a basis for anticipating and preparing for the cascading effects of climate-induced species redistribution on ecosystems and the human communities that depend on their ecosystem services.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Metabolically diverse microorganisms mediate methylmercury formation under nitrate-reducing conditions in a dynamic hydroelectric reservoir

Brownlee Reservoir is a mercury (Hg)-impaired hydroelectric reservoir that exhibits dynamic hydrological and geochemical conditions and is located within the Hells Canyon Complex in Idaho, USA. Methylmercury (MeHg) contamination in fish is a concern in the reservoir. While MeHg production has historically been attributed to sulfate-reducing bacteria and methanogenic archaea, microorganisms carrying the hgcA gene are taxonomically and metabolically diverse and the major biogeochemical cycles driving mercury (Hg) methylation are not well understood. In this study, Hg speciation and redox-active compounds were measured throughout Brownlee Reservoir across the stratified period in four consecutive years (2016–2019) to identify the location where and redox conditions under which MeHg is produced. Metagenomic sequencing was performed on a subset of samples to characterize the microbial community with hgcA and identify possible links between biogeochemical cycles and MeHg production. Biogeochemical profiles suggested in situ water column Hg methylation was the major source of MeHg. These profiles, combined with genome-resolved metagenomics focused on hgcA-carrying microbes, indicated that MeHg production occurs in this system under nitrate- or manganese-reducing conditions, which were previously thought to preclude Hg-methylation. Using this multidisciplinary approach, we identified the cascading effects of interannual variability in hydrology on the redox status, microbial metabolic strategies, abundance and metabolic diversity of Hg methylators, and ultimately MeHg concentrations throughout the reservoir. This work expands the known conditions conducive to producing MeHg and suggests that the Hg-methylation mitigation efforts by nitrate or manganese amendment may be unsuccessful in some locations.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Unified 0.25-degree gridded infrastructure-critical extreme weather for the United States from 1979 to 2100

Extreme weather events can severely disrupt critical infrastructure, triggering cascading effects on power, transportation, and essential services. However, standard weather and climate datasets often lack specialized variables necessary for hazard assessments. We present a unified dataset of infrastructure-critical weather and climate variables across the United States at 0.25° resolution, covering daily or sub-daily intervals from 1979 to 2100. The dataset includes temperature, dew point, wind gusts, precipitation partitioned by rain, snow, and freezing rain or ice pellets, lightning, and wildfire metrics. Historical conditions (1979-2023) are synthesized from observations and reanalysis products, while future projections are derived from 14 CMIP6 global climate models (historical, SSP245, and SSP585 experiments). Physically based and data-driven methods are used to estimate variables not directly provided by existing models. By integrating these variables into a single unified dataset, we enable consistent, high-resolution assessments of weather-related infrastructure risks across past and future periods, supporting wide-ranging applications in energy, transportation, water resources, emergency management, and beyond.

Climate and Earth system modelling↗
DOE OSTI2025

Observed declines in upper ocean phosphate-to-nitrate availability

Climate warming is increasing ocean stratification, which in turn should decrease the nutrient flux to the upper ocean. This may slow marine primary productivity, causing cascading effects throughout food webs. However, observing changes in upper ocean nutrients is challenging because surface concentrations are often below detection limits. We show that the nutricline depth, where nutrient concentrations reach well-detected levels, is tied to productivity and upper ocean nutrient availability. Next, we quantify nutricline depths from a global database of observed vertical nitrate and phosphate profiles to assess contemporary trends in global nutrient availability (1972–2022). We find strong evidence that the P-nutricline (phosphacline) is mostly deepening, especially throughout the southern hemisphere, but the N-nutricline (nitracline) remains mostly stable. Earth System Model (ESM) simulations support the hypothesis that reduced iron stress and increased nitrogen fixation buffer the nitracline, but not phosphacline, against increasing stratification. These contemporary trends are expected to continue in the coming decades, leading to increasing phosphorus but not nitrogen stress for marine phytoplankton, with important ramifications for ocean biogeochemistry and food web dynamics.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

The impacts of rising vapour pressure deficit in natural and managed ecosystems

Abstract An exponential rise in the atmospheric vapour pressure deficit (VPD) is among the most consequential impacts of climate change in terrestrial ecosystems. Rising VPD has negative and cascading effects on nearly all aspects of plant function including photosynthesis, water status, growth and survival. These responses are exacerbated by land–atmosphere interactions that couple VPD to soil water and govern the evolution of drought, affecting a range of ecosystem services including carbon uptake, biodiversity, the provisioning of water resources and crop yields. However, despite the global nature of this phenomenon, research on how to incorporate these impacts into resilient management regimes is largely in its infancy, due in part to the entanglement of VPD trends with those of other co‐evolving climate drivers. Here, we review the mechanistic bases of VPD impacts at a range of spatial scales, paying particular attention to the independent and interactive influence of VPD in the context of other environmental changes. We then evaluate the consequences of these impacts within key management contexts, including water resources, croplands, wildfire risk mitigation and management of natural grasslands and forests. We conclude with recommendations describing how management regimes could be altered to mitigate the otherwise highly deleterious consequences of rising VPD.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2026

A System-Level Cost Modeling Framework for Design for Remanufacturing: A Case Study of an Agricultural Machine Transmission

Remanufacturing offers significant environmental and economic benefits by restoring end-of-life products to as-new conditions. Although extensive research has been conducted on the topic, the adoption of remanufacturing practices remains limited across various industries. A primary barrier to broader implementation is the substantial upfront investment required, which necessitates reliable cost modeling to justify potential future savings. Most existing models treat components independently and ignore inter-component dependencies. We develop a probabilistic, system-level cost modeling framework that integrates reliability, reusability, and a dependency matrix to capture cascading effects across components over multiple life cycles. Our model identifies those critical components that maximize remanufacturing benefits across a product's many lives. A toy example and an industry case study (John Deere PowrQuad transmission subassembly) illustrate how design alternatives affect cumulative cost. Using a Monte Carlo simulation (MCS) to perform life cycle cost analysis on the system with different design changes, we show the normalized average cost savings after three remanufacturing cycles. Accounting for dependencies meaningfully alters cost projections and ignoring them underestimates accumulated cost by up to 20% in our examples. Furthermore, the results of our study confirm that accounting for component interdependencies is necessary to produce cost estimates that meet industry standards.

Life Cycle Analysis and Design↗
DOE OSTI2023

Understanding and Predictability of Integrated Mountain Hydroclimate (Workshop Report)

Mountainous systems cover approximately 23% of Earth’s land and are distributed across all continents. They can capture and store atmospheric moisture that is then cycled through the terrestrial surface and subsurface system, released to downstream communities, and cycled back to the atmosphere. Mountain hydroclimate—characterized by steep gradients, geological, ecological, and biogeochemical diversity—is influenced by topographic forcing and elevated warming and susceptible to large subseasonal to multidecadal variability and rapid changes. Terrestrial hydrological and biogeochemical cycles also experience cascading effects from global warming impacts, such as multidecadal declines in mountain snowpack, longer growing seasons, and increased frequency and severity of extreme events like droughts and wildfires. However, little is known about the effects of these impacts and their feedbacks on climate systems and surface-subsurface compartments. Also unknown are the full implications of changing hydroclimate and extreme events on hydro biogeochemical cycles across atmosphere, terrestrial, and human systems in mountain regions and beyond. This knowledge gap is critical, given human reliance on mountain systems for stable water supply and quality. Mountain systems’ increasing vulnerability to climate change and human perturbations motivates the need to improve understanding of integrated mountain hydroclimate (IMHC) systems and their feedbacks and impacts on humans across scales. However, due to large heterogeneity and strong gradients, coupled natural-human processes in mountain regions present significant challenges for observations, modeling, predictions, and projections. Motivated by gaps in mountain hydroclimate understanding, observations, and modeling and the need for credible projections of future changes, the U.S. Department of Energy’s (DOE) Biological and Environmental Research (BER) program organized a virtual workshop on “Understanding and Predictability of Integrated Mountain Hydroclimate.” Sponsored by BER’s Earth and Environmental Systems Sciences Division (EESSD), the workshop aimed to inform and catalyze EESSD’s growing interests in enhancing predictive understanding of IMHC. Organizers structured the workshop to identify (1) knowledge gaps, (2) observational and modeling challenges, (3) short-term (1 to 3 years) and long-term (10 years and beyond) research opportunities, and (4) strategies for fostering collaboration and coordination. To address the outstanding challenges of IMHC, the workshop included two sessions organized by disciplinary, cross-disciplinary, and crosscutting science topics. The disciplinary and cross-disciplinary topics focused on essential IMHC elements: atmosphere, terrestrial, and human systems and their interactions. Breakout sessions on disciplinary and cross-disciplinary topics facilitated identification of crosscutting topics and central emerging themes. Session 1 focused on connecting existing DOE investments to accelerate progress related to scientific challenges in understanding mountain hydroclimate. In Session 2, participants further explored key Session 1 takeaways through the lens of multiagency collaborations and coordination.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Best Practices Guide for Energy-Efficient Data Center Design

This guide provides an overview of best practices for energy-efficient data center design which spans the categories of information technology (IT) systems and their environmental conditions, data center air management, cooling and electrical systems, and heat recovery. IT system energy efficiency and environmental conditions are presented first because measures taken in these areas have a cascading effect of secondary energy savings for the mechanical and electrical systems. This guide concludes with a section on metrics and benchmarking values by which a data center and its systems energy efficiency can be evaluated. No design guide can offer “the most energy-efficient” data center design but the guidelines that follow offer suggestions that provide efficiency benefits for a wide variety of data center scenarios.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗