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Organochlorine pesticides and risk of papillary thyroid cancer in U.S. military personnel: a nested case-control study

Background: The effects of organochlorine pesticide (OCP) exposure on the development of human papillary thyroid cancer (PTC) are not well understood. A nested case-control study was conducted with data from the U.S. Department of Defense Serum Repository (DoDSR) cohort between 2000 and 2013 to assess associations of individual OCPs serum concentrations with PTC risk. Methods: This study included 742 histologically confirmed PTC cases (341 females, 401 males) and 742 individually-matched controls with pre-diagnostic serum samples selected from the DoDSR. Associations between categories of lipid-corrected serum concentrations of seven OCPs and PTC risk were evaluated for classical PTC and follicular PTC using conditional logistic regression, adjusted for body mass index category and military branch to compute odds ratios (OR) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs). Effect modification by sex, birth cohort, and race was examined. Results: There was no evidence of associations between most of the OCPs and PTC, overall or stratified by histological subtype. Overall, there was no evidence of an association between hexachlorobenzene (HCB) and PTC, but stratified by histological subtype HCB was associated with significantly increased risk of classical PTC (third tertile above the limit of detection (LOD) vs. <LOD, OR = 1.61, 95% CI, 1.09, 2.38; p for trend = 0.05) and significantly decreased risk of follicular variant PTC (third tertile above the limit of detection (LOD) vs. <LOD, OR = 0.38, 95% CI, 0.16, 0.91; p for trend = 0.04). Further stratified by sex, risk of classical PTC was higher for females (third tertile above LOD vs. <LOD, OR = 2.23, 95% CI: 1.23, 4.06; p-trend = 0.02) than for males (OR = 1.22, 95%CI: 0.72–2.08; p-trend = 0.56), though the test for interaction by sex was not statistically significant (p-interaction = 0.30). Similarly, β-hexachlorocyclohexane (β-HCCH) was associated with a higher risk for classical PTC for women with concentrations ≥LOD versus <LOD (OR = 1.76, 95% CI: 1.07, 2.89), while the effects were null for men. There were no consistent trends when stratified by race or birth year. Conclusions: The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency has classified HCB and other OCPs we studied here as probable human carcinogens. Our findings of increased risks for classical PTC associated with increased concentrations of HCB and β-HCCH, which were stronger among females, should be replicated in future studies of other populations.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

Radiation Toxicity in Patients With Collagen Vascular Disease: A Meta-Analysis of Case-Control Studies

Several retrospective series have reported that patients with collagen vascular disease (CVD) are at increased risk of radiation (RT) toxicity. However, the evidence is mixed, and many series lack control groups. We performed a meta-analysis including only case-cohort or randomized studies that examined the risk of RT toxicity for patients with CVD compared with controls.

62 RADIOLOGY AND NUCLEAR MEDICINE↗

Predicting Postoperative Injury and Military Discharge Status After Knee Surgery in the US Army

Background: Researchers have assessed postoperative injury or disability predictors in the military setting but typically focused on 1 type of surgical procedure at a time, used relatively small sample sizes, or investigated mixed cohorts with civilian populations. Purpose: To identify the relationship between baseline variables and injury incidence or military discharge status in US Army soldiers after knee surgery. Study Design: Case-control study; Level of evidence, 3. Methods: Data were obtained from a repository containing personnel, performance, and medical records for all active-duty US Army soldiers. Multivariate logistic regressions were used to estimate the effects of numerous variables on postoperative injury or on medical discharge. Variable selection and model validation were conducted using the k-fold method. Results: A total of 7567 soldiers underwent knee surgery between 2017 and 2019. Meniscal procedures were the most common type of surgery (39%), and approximately 71% of the cohort had a postoperative injury. Significant predictors for sustaining a postoperative injury included having a previous nonknee injury (odds ratio [OR], 1.5), female sex (OR, 1.3), and Black race (OR, 1.2). Within 4 years after surgery, 17% of soldiers were discharged from the military because of knee-related disability. Significant predictors for discharge from duty included enlisted rank (OR, 2.3), recent fitness test failure (OR, 1.9), number of previous knee surgeries (OR, 1.7), and having a previous nonknee injury (OR, 1.6). Conclusion: After knee surgery, nearly three-fourths of the soldiers in this cohort sustained a postoperative injury and almost one-fifth of soldiers were medically discharged from the military within 4 years. This study identified variables that indicate statistically increased risk for these postoperative outcomes and highlighted potentially modifiable factors.

Orthopedics↗

Familial Associations of Prevalence and Cause-Specific Mortality for Thoracic Aortic Disease and Bicuspid Aortic Valve in a Large-Population Database

Thoracic aortic disease and bicuspid aortic valve (BAV) likely have a heritable component, but large population-based studies are lacking. This study characterizes familial associations of thoracic aortic disease and BAV, as well as cardiovascular and aortic-specific mortality, among relatives of these individuals in a large-population database. In this observational case-control study of the Utah Population Database, we identified probands with a diagnosis of BAV, thoracic aortic aneurysm, or thoracic aortic dissection. Age- and sex-matched controls (10:1 ratio) were identified for each proband. First-degree relatives, second-degree relatives, and first cousins of probands and controls were identified through linked genealogical information. Cox proportional hazard models were used to quantify the familial associations for each diagnosis. We used a competing-risk model to determine the risk of cardiovascular-specific and aortic-specific mortality for relatives of probands. The study population included 3,812,588 unique individuals. Familial hazard risk of a concordant diagnosis was elevated in the following populations compared with controls: first-degree relatives of patients with BAV (hazard ratio [HR], 6.88 [95% CI, 5.62–8.43]); first-degree relatives of patients with thoracic aortic aneurysm (HR, 5.09 [95% CI, 3.80–6.82]); and first-degree relatives of patients with thoracic aortic dissection (HR, 4.15 [95% CI, 3.25–5.31]). In addition, the risk of aortic dissection was higher in first-degree relatives of patients with BAV (HR, 3.63 [95% CI, 2.68–4.91]) and in first-degree relatives of patients with thoracic aneurysm (HR, 3.89 [95% CI, 2.93–5.18]) compared with controls. Dissection risk was highest in first-degree relatives of patients who carried a diagnosis of both BAV and aneurysm (HR, 6.13 [95% CI, 2.82–13.33]). First-degree relatives of patients with BAV, thoracic aneurysm, or aortic dissection had a higher risk of aortic-specific mortality (HR, 2.83 [95% CI, 2.44–3.29]) compared with controls. Our results indicate that BAV and thoracic aortic disease carry a significant familial association for concordant disease and aortic dissection. The pattern of familiality is consistent with a genetic cause of disease. Furthermore, we observed higher risk of aortic-specific mortality in relatives of individuals with these diagnoses. In conclusion, this study provides supportive evidence for screening in relatives of patients with BAV, thoracic aneurysm, or dissection.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

Pre-existing humoral immunity to human common cold coronaviruses negatively impacts the protective SARS-CoV-2 antibody response

SARS-CoV-2 infection causes diverse outcomes ranging from asymptomatic infection to respiratory distress and death. A major unresolved question is whether prior immunity to endemic, human common cold coronaviruses (hCCCoVs) impacts susceptibility to SARS-CoV-2 infection or immunity following infection and vaccination. Therefore, we analyzed samples from the same individuals before and after SARS-CoV-2 infection or vaccination. We found hCCCoV antibody levels increase after SARS-CoV-2 exposure, demonstrating cross-reactivity. However, a case-control study indicates that baseline hCCCoV antibody levels are not associated with protection against SARS-CoV-2 infection. Rather, higher magnitudes of pre-existing betacoronavirus antibodies correlate with more SARS-CoV-2 antibodies following infection, an indicator of greater disease severity. Additionally, immunization with hCCCoV spike proteins before SARS-CoV-2 immunization impedes the generation of SARS-CoV-2-neutralizing antibodies in mice. Together, these data suggest that pre-existing hCCCoV antibodies hinder SARS-CoV-2 antibody-based immunity following infection and provide insight on how pre-existing coronavirus immunity impacts SARS-CoV-2 infection, which is critical considering emerging variants.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

High dimensional predictions of suicide risk in 4.2 million US Veterans using ensemble transfer learning

We present an ensemble transfer learning method to predict suicide from Veterans Affairs (VA) electronic medical records (EMR). A diverse set of base models was trained to predict a binary outcome constructed from reported suicide, suicide attempt, and overdose diagnoses with varying choices of study design and prediction methodology. Each model used twenty cross-sectional and 190 longitudinal variables observed in eight time intervals covering 7.5 years prior to the time of prediction. Ensembles of seven base models were created and fine-tuned with ten variables expected to change with study design and outcome definition in order to predict suicide and combined outcome in a prospective cohort. The ensemble models achieved c-statistics of 0.73 on 2-year suicide risk and 0.83 on the combined outcome when predicting on a prospective cohort of ~4.2 M veterans. The ensembles rely on nonlinear base models trained using a matched retrospective nested case-control (Rcc) study cohort and show good calibration across a diversity of subgroups, including risk strata, age, sex, race, and level of healthcare utilization. In addition, a linear Rcc base model provided a rich set of biological predictors, including indicators of suicide, substance use disorder, mental health diagnoses and treatments, hypoxia and vascular damage, and demographics. Similar content being viewed by others

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

BrainXcan identifies brain features associated with behavioral and psychiatric traits using large-scale genetic and imaging data

Advances in brain MRI have enabled many discoveries in neuroscience. Case-control comparisons of brain MRI features have highlighted potential causes of psychiatric and behavioral disorders. However, due to the cost and difficulty of collecting MRI data, most studies have small sample sizes, limiting their reliability. Furthermore, reverse causality complicates interpretation because many observed brain differences are the result rather than the cause of the disease. Here we propose a method (BrainXcan) that leverages the power of large-scale genomewide association studies (GWAS) and reference brain MRI data to discover new mechanisms of disease etiology and validate existing ones. BrainXcan tests the association with genetic predictors of brain MRI-derived features and complex traits to pinpoint relevant brain-wide and region-specific features. Requiring only genetic data, BrainXcan allows us to test a host of hypotheses on mental illness, across many MRI modalities, using public data resources. For example, our method shows that reduced axonal density across the brain is associated with schizophrenia risk, consistent with the disconnectivity hypothesis. We also find that the hippocampus volume is associated with schizophrenia risk, highlighting the potential of our approach. Taken together, our results show the promise of BrainXcan to provide insights into the biology of GWAS traits.

Association study↗