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At least 19 records

A detailed model for simulation of catchment scale subsurface hydrologic processes

A catchment scale numerical model is developed based on the three-dimensional transient Richards equation describing fluid flow in variably saturated porous media. The model is designed to take advantage of digital elevation data bases and of information extracted from these data bases by topographic analysis. The practical application of the model is demonstrated in simulations of a small subcatchment of the Konza Prairie reserve near Manhattan, Kansas. In a preliminary investigation of computational issues related to model resolution, we obtain satisfactory numerical results using large aspect ratios, suggesting that horizontal grid dimensions may not be unreasonably constrained by the typically much smaller vertical length scale of a catchment and by vertical discretization requirements. Additional tests are needed to examine the effects of numerical constraints and parameter heterogeneity in determining acceptable grid aspect ratios. In other simulations we attempt to match the observed streamflow response of the catchment, and we point out the small contribution of the streamflow component to the overall water balance of the catchment.

Paniconi, Claudio↗

A Catchment-Based Approach to Modeling Land Surface Processes in a GCM: Model Structure - Part 1

A new strategy for modeling the land surface component of the climate system is described. The strategy is motivated by an arguable deficiency in most state-of-the-art land surface models (LSMs), namely the disproportionately higher emphasis given to the formulation of one-dimensional, vertical physics relative to the treatment of horizontal heterogeneity in surface properties -- particularly subgrid soil moisture variability and its effects on runoff generation. The new strategy calls for the partitioning of the continental surface into a mosaic of hydrologic catchments, delineated through analysis of high-resolution surface elevation data. The effective "grid" used for the land surface is therefore not specified by the overlying atmospheric grid. Within each catchment, the variability of soil moisture is related to characteristics of the topography and to three bulk soil moisture variables through a well-established model of catchment processes. This modeled variability allows the partitioning of the catchment into several areas representing distinct hydrological regimes, wherein distinct (regime-specific) evaporation and runoff parameterizations are applied. Care is taken to ensure that the deficiencies of the catchment model in regions of little to moderate topography are minimized.

Koster, Randal D.↗

baseflow: a MATLAB and GNU Octave package for baseflow recession analysis

baseflow is a MATLAB® toolbox designed for baseflow recession analysis, a technique used in hydrologic science to infer aquifer properties from streamflow. By leveraging widely available streamflow data, baseflow can be used to estimate aquifer properties such as hydraulic conductivity and drainable porosity over the modern instrumental stream gage record. The toolbox is intended for analysis of measured streamflow values recorded on a daily timestep, and is tailored for shallow, unconfined riparian aquifers that discharge groundwater laterally into adjacent streams. Additionally, baseflow can analyze the collective behavior of individual hillslope aquifers constituting hydrologic catchments, known as “watersheds”, from a nonlinear dynamical systems perspective. The toolbox incorporates recent advances in baseflow recession analysis to enable objective estimations of aquifer properties, and their sensitivity to methodological decisions, at both hillslope and catchment scales.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

A Catchment-Based Land Surface Model for GCMs and the Framework for its Evaluation

A new GCM-scale land surface modeling strategy that explicitly accounts for subgrid soil moisture variability and its effects on evaporation and runoff is now being explored. In a break from traditional modeling strategies, the continental surface is disaggregated into a mosaic of hydrological catchments, with boundaries that are not dictated by a regular grid but by topography. Within each catchment, the variability of soil moisture is deduced from TOP-MODEL equations with a special treatment of the unsaturated zone. This paper gives an overview of this new approach and presents the general framework for its off-line evaluation over North-America.

Ducharen, A.↗

A Tale of Two Catchments: Causality Analysis and Isotope Systematics Reveal Mountainous Watershed Traits That Regulate the Retention and Release of Nitrogen

Abstract Mountainous watersheds are characterized by variability in functional traits, including vegetation, topography, geology, and geomorphology, which determine nitrogen (N) retention, and release. Coal Creek and East River are two contrasting catchments within the Upper Colorado River Basin that differ markedly in total nitrate (NO 3 − ) export. The East River has a diverse vegetation cover, and sinuous floodplains, and is underlain by N‐rich marine shale. At 0.21 ± 0.14 kg ha −1 yr −1 , the East River exports ∼3.5 times more NO 3 − relative to the conifer‐dominated Coal Creek (0.06 ± 0.02 kg ha −1 yr −1 ). While this can partly be explained by the larger size of the East River, the distinct watershed traits of these two catchments imply different mechanisms controlling the aggregate N‐export signal. A causality analysis shows physical and biogenic processes were critical in determining NO 3 − export from the East River catchment. Stable isotope ratios of NO 3 − (δ 15 N NO3 and δ 18 O NO3 ) show the East River catchment is a strong hotspot for biogeochemical processing of NO 3 − at the hillslope soil‐saprolite. By contrast, the conifer‐dominated Coal Creek retained nearly all atmospherically deposited NO 3 − , and its export was controlled by catchment hydrological traits (i.e., snowmelt periods and water table depth). The conservative N‐cycle within Coal Creek is likely due to the abundance of conifer trees, and smaller riparian regions, retaining more NO 3 − overall and reduced processing prior to export. This study highlights the value of integrating isotope systematics to link watershed functional traits to mechanisms of watershed element retention and release.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

The influence of burn severity on dissolved organic carbon concentrations across a stream network differs based on seasonal wetness conditions

Large, high-severity wildfires in many regions across the globe have increased concerns about their impacts on carbon cycling in watersheds. Altered sources of carbon and changes in catchment hydrology after wildfire can lead to shifts in dissolved organic carbon (DOC) concentrations in streams, which can have negative impacts on aquatic ecosystem health and downstream drinking-water treatment. Despite its importance, post-fire DOC responses remain relatively unconstrained in the literature, and we lack critical knowledge of how burn severity, landscape elements, and climate interact to affect DOC concentrations. To improve our understanding of the impact of burn severity on DOC concentrations, we measured DOC at 129 sites across a stream network extending upstream, within, and downstream of a large, high-severity wildfire in Oregon, USA. We collected samples across the study sub-basin during four distinct seasonal wetness conditions. We used our high-spatial-resolution data to develop spatial stream network (SSN) models to predict DOC across the stream network and to improve our understanding of the controls on DOC concentrations. Spatially, we found no obvious wildfire signal – instead, we observed a pattern of increasing DOC concentrations from the high-elevation headwaters to the sub-basin outlet, while the mainstem maintained consistently low DOC concentrations. This suggests that effects from large wildfires may be “averaged” out at higher stream orders and larger spatial scales. When we grouped DOC concentrations by burn severity group, we observed a significant decrease in the variability of DOC concentrations in the moderate and high burn severity sub-catchments. However, our SSN models were able to predict decreases in DOC concentrations with increases in burn severity across the stream network. Decreases in DOC concentrations were also highly variable across seasonal wetness conditions, with the greatest (–1.40 to –1.64 mg L –1 ) decrease occurring in the high-severity group during the wetting season. Additionally, our models indicated that in all seasons, baseflow index was more influential in predicting DOC concentrations than burn severity was, indicating that groundwater discharge can obscure the impacts of wildfire in a stream network. Overall, our results suggested that landscape characteristics can regulate the DOC response to wildfire. Moreover, our results also indicated that the seasonal timing of sampling can influence the observed response of DOC concentrations to wildfire.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Land Boundary Conditions for the Goddard Earth Observing System Model Version 5 (GEOS-5) Climate Modeling System: Recent Updates and Data File Descriptions

The Earths land surface boundary conditions in the Goddard Earth Observing System version 5 (GEOS-5) modeling system were updated using recent high spatial and temporal resolution global data products. The updates include: (i) construction of a global 10-arcsec land-ocean lakes-ice mask; (ii) incorporation of a 10-arcsec Globcover 2009 land cover dataset; (iii) implementation of Level 12 Pfafstetter hydrologic catchments; (iv) use of hybridized SRTM global topography data; (v) construction of the HWSDv1.21-STATSGO2 merged global 30 arc second soil mineral and carbon data in conjunction with a highly-refined soil classification system; (vi) production of diffuse visible and near-infrared 8-day MODIS albedo climatologies at 30-arcsec from the period 2001-2011; and (vii) production of the GEOLAND2 and MODIS merged 8-day LAI climatology at 30-arcsec for GEOS-5. The global data sets were preprocessed and used to construct global raster data files for the software (mkCatchParam) that computes parameters on catchment-tiles for various atmospheric grids. The updates also include a few bug fixes in mkCatchParam, as well as changes (improvements in algorithms, etc.) to mkCatchParam that allow it to produce tile-space parameters efficiently for high resolution AGCM grids. The update process also includes the construction of data files describing the vegetation type fractions, soil background albedo, nitrogen deposition and mean annual 2m air temperature to be used with the future Catchment CN model and the global stream channel network to be used with the future global runoff routing model. This report provides detailed descriptions of the data production process and data file format of each updated data set.

GEOS-5↗

The Role of Snowmelt and Subsurface Heterogeneity in Headwater Hydrology of a Mountainous Catchment in Colorado: A Model‐Data Integration Approach

Mountainous headwater streams are sustained by both snowmelt‐driven streamflow and groundwater discharge in the Upper Colorado River Basin. However, predicting headwater stream discharge magnitude and peak flow timing is challenging in mountainous terrains, where snowmelt rates vary with vegetation type and elevation, and heterogeneous subsurface physical properties influence groundwater storage and its release. We used a model‐data integration approach to investigate the roles of snowmelt and subsurface structure in stream discharge and groundwater level. We ran an ensemble of 100 integrated surface‐subsurface hydrologic models for a mountainous headwater catchment near Crested Butte, Colorado, USA. We also evaluated and calibrated these models against observed data sets, including snow depth measurements using distributed temperature probes, stream discharge, and groundwater levels. Calibration with multiple data sources using neural density estimators has further constrained uncertainty in subsurface properties and snowmelt rates. Results indicated that observed slower snowmelt rates in evergreen forests delayed the peak flow and baseflow onset. In upstream areas with lower subsurface permeability, water was stored within the subsurface but was not released as interflow or shallow groundwater flow, and thereby not contributing to downstream streamflow during recession limb periods. Double peaks in groundwater occurred in areas with spatial subsurface heterogeneity, in our case due to the contrast between granodiorite and Mancos shale. These process‐based insights into groundwater and snowmelt dynamics in mountainous headwaters will help improve predictions of headwater hydrology.

Wang, Lijing [University of Connecticut, Storrs, C↗

Hydrological Regimes of Small Catchments in the High Tatra Mountains Before and After Extraordinary Wind-Induced Deforestation

The paper presents the results of rainfall-runoff data analysis for small catchments of the upper Poprad River affected by wind-induced deforestation in November 2004. Before-event and afterevent measured data were compared in order to assess the impact of deforestation on hydrological regimes. Several characteristics were used including water balance, minimum and maximum runoff, runoff thresholds, number of runoff events, selected characteristics of events, runoff coefficients, and flashiness indices. Despite increased spring runoff minima, which in one catchment (Velick Creek) exceeded previously observed values after deforestation took place, it can be generally concluded that the impact of the deforestation was not clearly manifested in the analyzed hydrological data.

Holko, Ladislav↗

The sensitivity of runoff generation to spatial snowpack uniformity in an alpine watershed: Green Lakes Valley, Niwot Ridge Long-Term Ecological Research station

Seasonal water storage in high-elevation alpine catchments are critical sources of water for mountainous regions like the western U.S. The spatial distribution of snow in these topographically complex catchments is primarily governed by orography, solar radiation, and wind redistribution. While the effect of solar shading is relatively consistent from year-to-year, the redistribution of snow due to wind is more variable–capable of producing snowpacks that have varying degrees of uniformity across these hydrologically-important catchments. A reasonable hypothesis is that a warmer climate will cause snowfall to become more dense (i.e. wetter and heavier), possibly leading to less wind redistribution and thus produce a more uniformly distributed snowpack across the landscape. In this study, we investigate the role of increasingly uniform spatial snowpack distributions on streamflow generation in the Green Lakes Valley Niwot Ridge Long Term Ecological Research station, within the headwaters of the Boulder Creek watershed in Colorado. A set of idealized hydrologic simulation experiments driven by reconstructed snowpacks spanning 2001–2014 show that more a more uniform spatial snowpack distribution leads to an earlier melt-out of31 days on average and tends to produce less total streamflow, with maximum decreases as large as 7.5%. Isolating the role of snowpack heterogeneity from melt-season precipitation, we find that snowpack uniformity reduces total streamflow by as much as 13.2%. Reductions in streamflow are largely explained by greater expo-sure to solar radiation in the uniformly distributed case relative to a more heterogeneous snowpack, with this exposure driving shifts towards earlier snowmelt and changes in soil water storage. Overall, we find that the runoff efficiency from shallower snowpacks is more sensitive to the effects of uniformity than deeper snowpacks, which has potential implications for a warming climate where shallower snowpacks and enhanced sensitivities may be present.

Alpine catchment↗

Assimilation of Sentinel 1 and SMAP – Based Satellite Soil Moisture Retrievals into SWAT Hydrological Model: the Impact of Satellite Revisit Time and Product Spatial Resolution on Flood Simulations in Small Basins

In runoff generation process, soil moisture plays an important role as it controls the magnitude of the flood events to the rainfall inputs. In this study, we investigated the ability of a new era of satellite soil moisture retrievals to improve the Soil & Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) daily discharge simulations via soil moisture data assimilation for two small (< 500 km2) and hydrologically different catchments located in Central Italy. We ingested 1) the Soil Moisture Active and Passive (SMAP) Enhanced L3 Radiometer Global Daily 9 km EASE-Grid soil moisture, 2) the Advanced SCATterometer (ASCAT) H113 soil moisture product released within the EUMETSAT Satellite Application Facility on Support to Operational Hydrology and Water Management (H-SAF) which has a nearly daily temporal resolution and sampling of 12.5 km, and 3) a fused ASCAT/Sentinel-1 (S1) satellite soil moisture product named SCATSAR-SWI with temporal and spatial sampling of 1 day and 1 km, respectively into SWAT hydrological model via Ensemble Kalman Filter (EnKF). Different configurations were tested with the aim of exploring the effect of the hydrological regime, the land use conditions, the spatial sampling and the revisit time of the products (which controls the amount of available data to be potentially ingested). Results show a general improvement of SWAT discharge simulations for all products in terms of error and Nash Sutcliffe efficiency index. In particular, we found a relatively good behavior of both the active and the passive products in terms of low flows improvement especially for the catchment characterized by a higher baseflow component. The benefit of the higher spatial resolution of SCATSAR obtained via S1 over ASCAT was small likely due to very challenging areas for S1 retrieval. Eventually, better performances were obtained for the passive product in the more forested catchment. With the aim of exploring the benefit of having more frequent satellite soil moisture observations to be ingested, we tested the performance of the ASCAT product with a reduced temporal sampling obtained by temporally matching ASCAT observations to that of SMAP. The results show a significant reduction of the performance of ASCAT, suggesting that the correction frequency (due to the higher number of observations available) for small catchments is an important aspect for improving flood forecasting as it helps to adjust more frequently the soil moisture pre-storm conditions.

Small basins↗

Assimilation of Sentinel 1 and SMAP–based satellite soil moisture retrievals into SWAT hydrological model: the impact of satellite revisit time and product spatial resolution on flood simulations in small basins

In runoff generation process, soil moisture plays an important role as it controls the magnitude of the flood events in response to the rainfall inputs. In this study, we investigated the ability of a new era of satellite soil moisture retrievals to improve the Soil & Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) daily discharge simulations via soil moisture data assimilation for two small (< 500 km2) and hydrologically different catchments located in Central Italy. We ingested 1) the Soil Moisture Active and Passive (SMAP) Enhanced L3 Radiometer Global Daily 9 km EASE-Grid soil moisture, 2) the Advanced SCATterometer (ASCAT) H113 soil moisture product released within the EUMETSAT Satellite Application Facility on Support to Operational Hydrology and Water Management (HSAF) which has a nearly daily temporal resolution and sampling of 12.5 km, and 3) a fused ASCAT/Sentinel-1 (S1) satellite soil moisture product named SCATSAR-SWI with temporal and spatial sampling of 1 day and 1 km, respectively into SWAT hydrological model via the Ensemble Kalman Filter (EnKF). Different configurations were tested with the aim of exploring the effect of the hydrological regime, the land use conditions, the spatial sampling and the revisit time of the products (which controls the amount of available data to be potentially ingested). Results show a general improvement of SWAT discharge simulations for all products in terms of error and Nash Sutcliffe efficiency index. In particular, we found a relatively good behavior of both the active and the passive products in terms of low flows improvement especially for the catchment characterized by a higher baseflow component. The benefit of the higher spatial resolution of SCATSAR-SWI obtained via S1 over ASCAT was small, likely due to very challenging areas for the S1 retrieval. Eventually, better performances were obtained for the passive product in the more forested catchment. With the aim of exploring the benefit of having more frequent satellite soil moisture observations to be ingested, we tested the performance of the ASCAT product with a reduced temporal sampling obtained by temporally matching ASCAT observations to that of SMAP. The results show a significant reduction of the performance of ASCAT, suggesting that the correction frequency (due to the higher number of observations available) for small catchments is an important aspect for improving flood forecasting as it helps to adjust more frequently the pre-storm soil moisture conditions.

Shima Azimi↗

Understanding the hydrological response of a headwater-dominated catchment by analysis of distributed surface–subsurface interactions

Abstract We computationally explore the relationship between surface–subsurface exchange and hydrological response in a headwater-dominated high elevation, mountainous catchment in East River Watershed, Colorado, USA. In order to isolate the effect of surface–subsurface exchange on the hydrological response, we compare three model variations that differ only in soil permeability. Traditional methods of hydrograph analysis that have been developed for headwater catchments may fail to properly characterize catchments, where catchment response is tightly coupled to headwater inflow. Analyzing the spatially distributed hydrological response of such catchments gives additional information on the catchment functioning. Thus, we compute hydrographs, hydrological indices, and spatio-temporal distributions of hydrological variables. The indices and distributions are then linked to the hydrograph at the outlet of the catchment. Our results show that changes in the surface–subsurface exchange fluxes trigger different flow regimes, connectivity dynamics, and runoff generation mechanisms inside the catchment, and hence, affect the distributed hydrological response. Further, changes in surface–subsurface exchange rates lead to a nonlinear change in the degree of connectivity—quantified through the number of disconnected clusters of ponding water—in the catchment. Although the runoff formation in the catchment changes significantly, these changes do not significantly alter the aggregated streamflow hydrograph. This hints at a crucial gap in our ability to infer catchment function from aggregated signatures. We show that while these changes in distributed hydrological response may not always be observable through aggregated hydrological signatures, they can be quantified through the use of indices of connectivity.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Evaluation of distributed process-based hydrologic model performance using only a priori information to define model inputs

Fully distributed, integrated surface–subsurface hydrological models (ISSHMs) have seen renewed interest due to availability of better software, high performance computing facilities, and high-resolution, spatially extensive data products. ISSHMs are valuable as tools for advancing system understanding as they can resolve multiple processes defined on the plot scale including three-dimensional interaction of surface water and groundwater. Here, we evaluated the performance of an ISSHM, the Advanced Terrestrial Simulator (ATS), on seven diverse catchments across the continental US using widely available data products to define model inputs without calibration. We compare the ATS-simulated streamflow and evapotranspiration with gauge observations and MODIS-derived evapotranspiration, respectively. Using the Kling-Gupta Efficiency (KGE) as metric, ATS with default data products performed reasonably well at 6 of 7 catchments for streamflow. However, in one of those 6 catchments ATS had poor performance on baseflow and ATS’s overall performance was thus judged to be inadequate despite the acceptable KGE. ATS performance for evapotranspiration was good in all 7 catchments using default data products. In the two catchments where ATS streamflow performance using default data products was not acceptable, the performance was significantly improved by using local information on subsurface properties below the soil. We also compare the model-simulated streamflow and evapotranspiration with the Sacramento soil moisture accounting (SAC-SMA) model, a semi-distributed model that was calibrated on a catchment-by-catchment basis. Uncalibrated ATS performance is comparable to the calibrated SAC-SMA model in terms of streamflow while ATS performance is similar to or better (much better in certain catchments) in reproducing MODIS-derived evapotranspiration. Reasonably good performance of ATS without catchment-specific calibration provides new confidence in the ISSHM class of models and community data products as tools for advancing understanding of watershed function in a changing environment.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Manganese in drinking-water reservoirs: a multi-disciplinary review of current issues, biogeochemical controls, and oxygenation-based management

Decreased water quality and increased treatment costs due to excess manganese (Mn) in drinking-water supplies are critical issues globally. To combat on-going and emerging taste and odour issues with Mn and other contaminants (e.g., algal toxins), many utilities are using engineered oxygenation or aeration (EOA) systems to improve water quality in lakes and reservoirs. Resultant shifts in key biogeochemical and physical processes are still poorly understood, often leading to inefficiently managed systems. Paired with knowledge gaps regarding environmental drivers of Mn and the complexity of Mn redox kinetics, Mn problems persist. This review presents the state of current research in areas critical to optimisation of EOA mitigation of Mn, with focus on i) Mn biogeochemical cycling within drinking-water reservoirs; ii) influences of local catchment geology, hydrology, and land use on Mn dynamics; and iii) Mn management using different EOA approaches. The importance of considering the combined implications of these factors for successful Mn management in reservoirs is highlighted by an evaluation of relevant field-based studies; a wide range in EOA performance is observed, from a 97 % decrease in soluble Mn up to a ∼400 % increase in total Mn. Despite the breadth of studies that consider Mn in water-supply systems, there are still several areas of research which warrant further investigation, including: the influence of natural sources and anthropogenic activities on Mn within a given catchment, Mn speciation and transport in stratified and destratified lakes and reservoirs, and optimal site-specific EOA strategies for Mn mitigation.

Aeration↗

Advancing the Representation of Human Actions in Large‐Scale Hydrological Models: Challenges and Future Research Directions

Characterizing the impact of human actions on terrestrial water fluxes and storages at multi-basin, continental, and global scales has long been on the agenda of scientists engaged in climate science, hydrology, and water resources systems analysis. This need has resulted in a variety of modeling efforts focused on the representation of water infrastructure operations. Yet, the representation of human-water interactions in large-scale hydrological models is still relatively crude, fragmented across models, and often achieved at coarse resolutions (~10–100 km) that cannot capture local water management decisions. In this commentary, we argue that the concomitance of four drivers and innovations is poised to change the status quo: “hyper-resolution” hydrological models (~0.1–1 km), multi-sector modeling, satellite missions able to monitor the outcome of human actions, and machine learning are creating a fertile environment for human-water research to flourish. We then outline four challenges that chart future research in hydrological modeling: (a) creating hyper-resolution global data sets of water management practices, (b) improving the characterization of anthropogenic interventions on water quantity, stream temperature, and sediment transport, (c) improving model calibration and diagnostic evaluation, and (d) reducing the computational requirements associated with the successful exploration of these challenges. Overcoming them will require addressing modeling, computational, and data development needs that cut across the hydrology community, thereby requiring a major communal effort.

catchment hydrology↗

Soil physical and chemical measurements for topsoils collected during NEON campaign in East River, CO (06/14/2018-06/28/2018)

The package is part of the DOE Watershed Function Science Focus Area (SFA) project and includes soil physical and chemical measurements from topsoils collected at the East River, Colorado, in conjunction with the National Ecological Observatory Network (NEON) Airborne Observation Platform (AOP) survey conducted in June 2018. The soil measurements include soil bulk density, soil volumetric water content, soil microbial biomass C (Carbon), N (Nitrogen) and C:N (C to N ratio), soil DNA yield, soil total extractable organic C, soil total extractable N, soil extractable nitrate, soil extractable ammonium, soil dissolved inorganic N, soil dissolved organic N, soil pH, soil TOC400 (total organic carbon at 400°C), soil ROC (residual oxidizable carbon), soil TIC (total inorganic carbon), soil TOC (total organic carbon), soil TC (total carbon), soil N, soil OM (organic matter) loss on ignition. Additional associated site metadata can be found in the ESS-DIVE package 10.15485/1618130. The dataset includes (1) 2018_NEON_soil_physical_chemical_measurements.csv: soil physical and chemical measurements indexed by soil sample IGSNs; (2) samples.csv: sample metadata file used to register International Generic Sample Numbers (IGSNs); (3) flmd.csv: file level metadata file; and (4) dd.csv: data dictionary file. This work was supported by the Watershed Function Science Focus Area at Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory funded by the US Department of Energy, Office of Science, Biological and Environmental Research under Contract No. DE-AC02-05CH11231.

2018 NEON and 2025 CHESS (Catchment Hydrology and ↗

GEOS-5 Seasonal Forecast System: ENSO Prediction Skill and Bias

The GEOS-5 AOGCM known as S2S-1.0 has been in service from June 2012 through January 2018 (Borovikov et al. 2017). The atmospheric component of S2S-1.0 is Fortuna-2.5, the same that was used for the Modern-Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications (MERRA), but with adjusted parameterization of moist processes and turbulence. The ocean component is the Modular Ocean Model version 4 (MOM4). The sea ice component is the Community Ice CodE, version 4 (CICE). The land surface model is a catchment-based hydrological model coupled to the multi-layer snow model. The AGCM uses a Cartesian grid with a 1 deg × 1.25 deg horizontal resolution and 72 hybrid vertical levels with the upper most level at 0.01 hPa. OGCM nominal resolution of the tripolar grid is 1/2 deg, with a meridional equatorial refinement to 1/4 deg. In the coupled model initialization, selected atmospheric variables are constrained with MERRA. The Goddard Earth Observing System integrated Ocean Data Assimilation System (GEOS-iODAS) is used for both ocean state and sea ice initialization. SST, T and S profiles and sea ice concentration were assimilated.

GEOS-↗