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Calibration of the Diffusivity Predictions of Centipede Using Approximate Bayesian Computation and Applications in Nyx (Engineering Scale) and Xolotl-MARMOT (Meso-Scale) Simulations

Fission gas evolution and release in UO 2 nuclear fuel are important fuel performance metrics and occur in several distinct stages: 1) nucleation, growth and resolution of intra-granular bubbles, 2) diffusion to grain boundaries and 3) nucleation and growth of bubbles at grain boundaries, which eventually form a connected network (percolation) enabling release of gas from grain boundaries through connections to triple junctions, grain edges or free surfaces. The NE-SciDAC project is developing several computational tools to model this problem, which are connected in a hierarchical multi-scale framework. The information transfer in the multi-scale framework is a critical step that, in addition to best-estimates, should include uncertainty quantification. Despite taking a first-principles multi-scale approach, there is a need to perform parameter calibration to ensure consistency with available experimental data. In the present study, uncertainty quantification (UQ) and parameter calibration is demonstrated for one of the lower length scale codes in the multi-scale framework (Centipede) and then the results, including instances of the propagated uncertainties, are used in other codes within the framework, specifically Nyx and Xolotl-MARMOT. We calibrated the model parameters in Centipede, a computer code used to predict diffusivities of uranium (U) and xenon (Xe) in the context of the simulation of fission gas in uranium oxide (UO 2 ) nuclear fuel. The Centipede code depends on 183 parameters, all of which are subject to uncertainty. The three data sets used in our calibration effort are taken from the literature. This data is available as a set of measurements, including measurement errors. Our goal is to calibrate a statistical model that predicts both the value of the measurement and the uncertainty associated with the measurement. We perform a Bayesian calibration of the model parameters using a dedicated approximate Bayesian computation (ABC) likelihood function. To avoid excessive computational costs, we replace the expensive Centipede simulation code by a higher-order surrogate model, constructed using only the 9 most important parameters. These important parameters are identified by a preliminary global sensitivity analysis (GSA) study. Among the important parameters are T0 (the temperature at which UO 2 is perfectly stoichiometric) and Hf_pO2 (the temperature dependence of the oxygen (O) partial pressure) that should be considered as operating conditions to be estimated along with the other parameters. We consider two different cases: one where we define one set of these operating conditions for all data sets, and one where we define distinct operating condition parameters for each data set. The Xe diffusivities predicted by the latter case show distinct features that could not be observed in the former. Next, we use the diffusivity predictions by Centipede as input to Nyx, a reduced order fuel performance code focused on gas behavior alone, in order to estimate quantities associated with inter-granular bubble formation at conditions specified by the experiments. Finally, the diffusivities obtained from the calibrated Centipede runs were used in coupled Xolotl-MARMOT simulations of intra- and inter-granular gas evolution. The results are compared to simulations using the baseline diffusivities from Turnbull et al.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

Cluster dynamics simulation of xenon diffusion during irradiation in UO 2

Diffusion of fission gas in UO 2 nuclear fuel impacts several important performance metrics, such as fission gas release, swelling, and thermal conductivity. Current empirical models of fission gas release have significant uncertainty, some of which derives from the bulk diffusion rate and its dependence on, for example, fuel chemistry and irradiation. In this work, we have applied the previously-developed Free Energy Cluster Dynamics (FECD) methodology in the code Centipede to calculate xenon cluster concentrations in UO 2 under intrinsic (high temperature) and irradiation-enhanced (intermediate temperature) conditions in order to develop a model of the xenon diffusion coefficient based on the atomic scale mechanisms responsible for transport. While the diffusion mechanism for xenon in UO 2 is adequately described by the Xe + U 2 O vacancy cluster for intrinsic conditions, a similar process is not capable of capturing measured in-pile fission gas diffusivity at intermediate temperatures. Therefore, a different diffusion mechanism must dominate under this regime. Using calculated atomistic data, we have shown that irradiation-enhanced diffusion at intermediate temperatures occurs via the larger Xe + U 4 O y vacancy clusters, which have lower migration barriers and increase in concentration by several orders of magnitude compared to intrinsic conditions. This mechanism is enabled by the increased uranium vacancy concentration under irradiation due to Frenkel pair production. In addition, the fast migration of uranium interstitials with two attached oxygen interstitials lowers the total uranium interstitial concentration through reactions with sinks. This allows the extended defects, such as Xe + U 4 O y vacancy clusters, to maintain high concentrations by limiting annihilation with attached vacancies. Furthermore, predictions using the Xe + U 4 O y diffusion mechanism are in good agreement with experiment, albeit with some differences in the Arrhenius slope, which we believe may be related to either experimental or model parameter uncertainty. Lastly, an analytical expression suitable for application in fuel performance simulations was derived to capture the predictions of the Centipede simulations.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

Development of Mechanistic Fission Gas Release and Swelling Models for UN Fuels in BISON

This report describes the work in NEAMS (Nuclear Energy Advanced Modeling and Simulation) to develop a mechanistic fission gas model for uranium nitride fuels in BISON. The existing Sifgrs (Simple integrated fission gas release and swelling) model tracks the average properties of two bubble populations in the bulk and at the grain boundaries. It was recognized that dislocations play a crucial role in the fission gas swelling of UN, and an irradiation-induced dislocation density model was needed, as well as a model describing how fission gas interacts with dislocations creating a third population of bubbles along dislocations. A mechanistic model that tracks dislocation bubbles was implemented in Sifgrs. This model was used to simulate fission gas swelling and release in UN. Lower-length-scale calculations and experimental observations from carbide fuel were leveraged to help populate the model with essential parameters. As a placeholder, an empirical function was formulated for the evolution of the dislocation network. Because of the difference in evolution of this network at different temperatures, the dislocation bubbles are able to capture behavior that the bulk intragranular bubbles cannot. It was found that the bulk bubbles dominate microscopic swelling at low temperatures, and the dislocation bubbles dominate at higher temperatures. Based on this model, the transition between the two bubble types is the main factor behind the breakaway swelling phenomenon in UN. In order to test the model, a couple of assessments were run. For the lower temperature JOYO pins, the model produces reasonable fission gas release and swelling values. For the higher temperature SP1 pin, the model dramatically underestimates the fission gas release. This issue is attributed to the gas being trapped inside dislocation bubbles, unable to escape to grain boundaries to cause fission gas release, and could be remedied by a mechanistic dislocation model that allows the dislocation density to decrease at very high temperatures. A preliminary mechanistic dislocation model was developed supported by first-principle calculations. These calculations provided valuable insight into how interstitial defects cluster in UN in the {110} orientation, and may eventually form dislocation loops, leading to the conclusion that dislocation loops may nucleate from these clusters. An estimate of the dislocation line energy in UN was obtained and will be improved in future work. The free-energy cluster dynamics code Centipede was used to track interstitial and vacancy absorption at dislocation loops and calculate their growth. In addition, improvements to Centipede were made including new convergence criteria for transient simulations and sink driving force updates.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

Cluster Dynamics Simulations of Intra-Granular Fission Gas Bubble Size and Pressure Evolution in UO 2

Fission gases such as xenon (Xe) play a critical role in determining the behavior and response of nuclear fuel. Given that Xe has little solubility in UO 2 , it accumulates and forms bubbles, which significantly impact fuel performance. Intra- and inter-granular bubble nucleation and growth can lead to fuel swelling, and once bubbles interconnect at grain boundaries, fission gas can be released into the plenum. At low temperatures, limited uranium vacancy mobility can restrict swelling, therefore causing the bubbles to become highly pressurized. Consequently, this can induce micro-cracking, promote fission gas release (increasing the likelihood of cladding failure), and even lead to fuel pulverization under accident conditions such as a loss of coolant accident. As bubble evolution is strongly influenced by local temperature and fission rate, markedly different behavior occurs across the radial profile of the fuel pellet. Capturing the mechanisms that underpin bubble evolution is therefore important to predict these behaviors in the fuel. Previous models describing important mechanisms informed by lower length scale simulations have been developed under the NEAMS program. These can describe the evolution of a single bubble type (i.e., single value for radius and pressure) at each position in the pellet, for instance using the Centipede cluster dynamic code. However, in reality, a full distribution in bubble sizes and pressures exists within the microstructure at a given position in the pellet. To address this the cluster dynamics code Xolotl, which can predict Xe and vacancy phase space (i.e., bubble distributions) for intra-granular bubbles, has been used before. Prior work benchmarked the Xolotl code against the Centipede cluster dynamics code to ensure compatibility and to verify that mobile defect properties are adequately transferred between the two codes, along with some physics improvements. In this work, we go further by introducing a physics-based set of improvements that will allow us to accurately predict bubble size distributions and internal bubble pressures under representative UO 2 irradiation conditions. The improvements include (i) coupling bubble-defect reaction energies to a virial equation of state (EOS), (ii) including a bubble surface tension contribution, (iii) incorporating radiation-induced re-solution of Xe and vacancies, (iv) enabling pressure-driven dislocation loop punching through an effective emission of interstitial clusters informed by interstitial loop energetics, (v) accounting for radiation induced athermal diffusion of Xe, and (vi) implementing a Booth-type grain boundary sink representation for all mobile defects and defect clusters. After these modifications, we observe good agreement of Xolotl fission gas bubble size and concentration predictions with legacy experimental measurements. Additionally, it allows the distribution of Xe bubble pressures and radius to also be predicted and compared to data produced through the Advanced Fuels Campaign (AFC) program. Here, we have done this by running simulations under conditions similar to the AFC post-irradiation examination (PIE) samples irradiated at North Anna 2 light water reactor (LWR). Our results shows excellent agreement with these experimental measurements.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

Atomistic and cluster dynamics modeling of fission gas (Xe) diffusivity in TRISO fuel kernels

TRISO fuel particles are candidates for use in next generation reactors including gas reactors, fluoride salt-cooled high temperature reactors, and micro-reactors. The UCO fuel kernel consists of a uranium dioxide (UO) and uranium carbide mixture. The addition of UC helps suppress the formation of carbon monoxide gas, which led to failures during initial TRISO development. The addition of uranium carbide alters the chemistry of the UO kernel, which is known to influence performance parameters such as fission gas diffusivity, although the impact has not been quantified and no models exist that take the change in chemistry into account. Therefore, better understanding and more accurate models of the impact of chemistry on fuel performance are of high priority. In this paper, a first-principles density functional theory (DFT) and empirical potential based multi-scale study has been carried out to model the diffusivity of fission gas xenon (Xe) in UCO TRISO fuel kernels. The focus is on the UO component in the UCO fuel kernels, as that represents the largest volume fraction of the fuel kernels. The study relies on DFT and empirical potential calculations to determine Xe and point defect properties, which are then used in thermodynamic and kinetic models to predict diffusion for intrinsic conditions. In addition, the information is utilized in cluster dynamics simulations using the Centipede code to estimate the impact of irradiation on defect transport. Additionally, the presence of UC or UC in the UCO fuel kernels is shown to have a substantial impact on the UO non-stoichiometry by inducing oxygen vacancies and driving UO sub-stoichiometric, which causes much slower Xe diffusion in UCO compared to light water reactor UO fuel. The application of this model in fuel performance simulations using the Bison code is also demonstrated.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

Modeling of fission gas diffusion and release for Gd 2 O 3 doped UO 2

Uranium dioxide (UO 2 ) is the primary nuclear fuel in light water reactors, and its excess neutronic reactivity can be controlled by adding burnable absorbers, such as Gd 2 O 3 . This burnable absorber has a large neutron absorption cross-section, lowering the high reactivity of the reactor's initial fuel load. However, there needs to be more understanding of how added Gd 2 O 3 influences the properties of UO 2 under irradiation. To understand the behavior of defects and fission gas in the UO 2 /Gd 2 O 3 system under irradiation, we use cluster dynamics modeling supported by density functional theory calculations. First, we calculate the formation energies of Gd point and cluster defects, and evaluate the temperature-dependent defect concentrations using the defect formation energies and entropies. We show that Gd is soluble in UO 2 , introducing a negative charge in the system. Using this information, we adapted the cluster dynamics code Centipede to model the influence of Gd on U self-diffusion and Xe diffusion in UO 2 with 10 wt% Gd 2 O 3 . Also, we analyzed the Xe diffusion as a function of Gd 2 O 3 concentration, showing that the Xe diffusivity is decreased, which means that the athermal diffusivity due to electronic stopping persists at higher temperatures. In conclusion, the decrease in Xe diffusion means that more Xe stays in the matrix, decreasing the Xe release, and lowering its influence of fission gas release on the thermomechanical properties of UO 2 .

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Cluster dynamics simulations of tritium and helium diffusion in lithium ceramics

Tritium (T) and He diffusion in LiAlO 2 and LiAl 5 O 8 phases influences the performance of tritium producing burnable absorber rods (TPBARs) by affecting the gas release, swelling and thermal conductivity of Li-bearing ceramic pellets. Frenkel pair defects and clusters created by irradiation can attract T and He interstitials and form clusters of the type He i x Li, He i x Al, He i x O, T i x Li, T i x Al, and T i x O, 1 ≤ x ≤ 4 in a Li, Al or O vacancy site (notation denotes x He or T atoms in a 1 Li, 1 Al or 1 O vacant site). The concentration and mobility of each of these clusters collectively contribute to the diffusion of the He and T gases in LiAlO 2 and LiAl 5 O 8 . Here, in this work, free energy cluster dynamics simulations implemented in the Centipede code, are used to obtain the concentration and diffusivities of these clusters which are then used to calculate the total diffusivity of T and He gases in LiAlO 2 and LiAl 5 O 8 . The results show that diffusivity of T is at least one order of magnitude higher in LiAlO 2 as compared to that in LiAl 5 O 8 whereas He diffusion is 2–13 orders of magnitude higher in LiAlO 2 as compared to that in LiAl 5 O 8 . There is a higher concentration of highly diffusive species (T interstitials and T i 03 Li for the case of tritium and He i 01 Li, He i 02 Li, and He i 03 Li for the case of He) in LiAlO 2 than in LiAl 5 O 8 which increase the total diffusion of T and He in LiAlO 2 .

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

The role of irradiation-enhanced interstitial diffusion in over-pressurizing fission gas bubbles in UO 2

Fission gas bubbles in UO 2 nuclear fuel have been observed to exhibit pressures in excess of the equilibrium bubble pressure; however, the cause of bubble over-pressurization has not yet been demonstrated. The mechanical interaction between a bubble and the surrounding matrix or grain boundary depends on the internal pressure of the bubble and local stress state, such that over-pressurized bubbles are thought to be responsible for fragmentation and pulverization, when exposed to a temperature ramp. Here, in this work, we investigate the role of U interstitials, produced through irradiation, in over-pressurizing bubbles by using a combined molecular dynamics (MD) and cluster dynamics approach. Firstly, the energies for the capture of interstitials and vacancies by bubbles have been determined from MD as a function of the ratio of gas atoms to vacancies that make up the bubble. Secondly, these reaction energies have been implemented in the cluster dynamics code Centipede to predict bubble over-pressurization as a function of temperature for typical fission rates. It was found that there is a transition from low pressure bubbles (at high temperatures) to high pressure bubbles (at lower temperatures). The cause of this behavior was shown to be the creation of irradiation-induced interstitials that are highly mobile relative to vacancies at low temperature; whereas, vacancies are sufficiently mobile at high temperatures to limit bubble pressures. This result supports the hypothesis that over-pressurized bubbles form during steady-state operation and that this behavior is highly sensitive to the local pellet temperature.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

Effect of Mg and Ni impurities on tritium diffusion in lithium ceramics through cluster dynamics simulations

This study investigates the impact of Mg and Ni doping on tritium diffusion in LiAlO 2 and LiAl 5 O 8 ceramics, that are used in tritium-producing burnable absorber rods (TPBARs). Utilizing Centipede simulations across a broad temperature range (500 K to 1250 K), we explore the interplay between defect dynamics, cluster formation, and tritium mobility. In LiAlO 2 , Mg doping significantly enhances tritium diffusivity by increasing tritium interstitial concentrations and diffusion coefficients of key species, thereby doubling the overall tritium diffusivity. Ni doping, while shifting the dominant defect to Li vacancies, maintains high tritium mobility due to the low binding energy of Li vacancy-tritium complexes, which ensures effective tritium migration. In LiAl 5 O 8 , Mg and Ni doping results in a slight reduction in the diffusion coefficients of key species, yet the dramatic increase in tritium interstitial concentrations compensates, leading to a net small increase in tritium diffusivity. In conclusion, the findings highlight the critical role of defects in tritium transport and the effect of Mg and Ni defects on the performance of these ceramics in demanding nuclear environments.

Cluster dynamics↗

Mechanistic Multiscale Uncertainty Propagation in Support of Accelerated Fuel Qualification

Taking a nuclear fuel concept through the research, development, and qualification stages has historically taken on the order of 20 to 25 years because of extensive irradiation tests required for a variety of conditions. The concept of accelerated fuel qualification (AFQ) has been proposed to increase the innovation pace for nuclear fuels. The goal of AFQ is not to replace the traditional qualification approach but rather to reduce the total number of experiments required to ensure approval from the regulatory authority. Of the many AFQ approaches being explored, advanced modeling—and, in particular, mechanistic modeling—is in a uniquely cross-cutting position to reduce the number of required integral tests through the inclusion of separate-effects testing, while helping to extrapolate reactor performance during rare events. We make the case that propagation of uncertainty through various computational length scales helps contextualize mechanistic modeling. We will utilize UO 2 fission gas diffusion predictions from the atomistically informed cluster dynamics code Centipede to inform fuel performance rodlet simulations using the BISON finite element code as the metric for showing how multiscale mechanistic uncertainty quantification can help reduce uncertainty in fuel performance. In conclusion, by quantifying uncertainty and its reduction through multiscale modeling, the qualification process may be accelerated through the reduction of costly irradiation experiments.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

Investigating bubble pressures in irradiated UO 2 for understanding fragmentation of high burnup structure

This report summarized work carried out to investigate mechanisms relevant to fragmentation of high burnup UO 2 fuel. High pressure bubbles that form in high burnup structure are thought to be responsible for fragmentation and pulverization, when exposed to a temperature ramp during a transient. The over-pressurization of the bubbles during normal operation is a pre-requisite for this mechanism to occur. Therefore, in this work we investigate the role of interstitials, produced through irradiation, in over-pressurizing the bubbles by using a combined molecular dynamics (MD) and cluster dynamics approach. Firstly, the energies for the annihilation of interstitials and vacancies at bubbles have been determined from MD as a function of bubble pressure. Secondly, these reaction energies have been implemented in the cluster dynamics code Centipede to determine the steady-state defect concentrations and bubble pressure under irradiation. It was found that there is a transition from low pressure bubbles, at high temperature, to high pressure bubbles, at low temperatures. This indicates the formation of over-pressurized bubbles in the low temperature periphery of the pellet, where high burnup structure forms. This result supports the hypothesis that over-pressurized bubbles form during steady-state operation and can then contribute to fragmentation during a transient. Future work will examine the influence of bubble pressure on Xe diffusion and study the impact of other sinks (e.g. grain boundaries and dislocations) that are relevant to high burnup structure. Ultimately, the goal is to provide predictions of the bubble pressure as a function of burnup that can be used to derive a more mechanistic fragmentation threshold for use in BISON.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

Mechanistic nuclear fuel performance modeling of uranium nitride

Uranium mononitride (UN) is a nuclear fuel candidate for advanced reactor designs and an alternative being considered for light water reactors due to its higher thermal conductivity and uranium density than UO 2 . As with any nuclear fuel, swelling and fission gas release are important factors for safety, while also being some of the hardest phenomena to predict with a high degree of confidence. Getting a grasp on the gas swelling behavior and release is crucial to lower the barrier for UN utilization. An accelerated swelling rate at high temperatures observed experimentally, sometimes referred to as “breakaway swelling,” further complicates the prediction of fuel performance of UN. A mechanistic model has been developed using a multiscale approach to describe the intragranular and intergranular fission gas behavior. Lower-length-scale calculations have been employed to inform models of the gas and self-diffusion behavior, resolution rate, and bubble shape. Leveraging previous work on high burnup UO 2 , two populations of intragranular bubbles are considered; small bulk bubbles and larger bubbles located along dislocations. The dislocation bubbles were found to be crucial to the overall swelling behavior, and the breakaway swelling transition was associated with the transition in the gas atom diffusion mechanism from an irradiation-induced athermal diffusion regime at lower temperatures to an intrinsic thermal equilibrium regime at higher temperatures, accelerating the growth of the dislocation bubbles. Similarly, the threshold for fission gas release was associated with the grain boundary vacancy diffusivity surpassing the gas atom diffusivity at sufficiently high temperatures, allowing the over-pressurized grain boundary bubble to grow in size and interconnect. Using thermo-mechanical models with the fission gas model, two integral fuel pin assessment cases were simulated. Finally, this work demonstrates the ability of a multiscale approach to accelerate the understanding of advanced fuel forms when experimental data is limited.

11 - NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗