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NASA NTRS2010

Coming Climate Crisis? Perhaps, but Beware the Solutions

Over the past several decades, there has been a growing awareness that climate changes in substantial ways, that human activities are having an impact on climate change, and that climate change can have major consequences for human societies. Unfortunately, along with this realization has come a strong polarization within the scientific community and outside of it regarding what if anything should be done to reduce negative human impacts and/or to attempt to control climate. This book places recent climate change in the context of the very long term history of change on planet Earth and warns that our understanding of climate change remains sufficiently incomplete that we should be extremely cautious about implementing proposed massive geoengineering schemes intended to alter future climate conditions. The book treats with respect the various viewpoints in the highly polarized discussions regarding climate change, following a basic assumption that the major scientists on each side of the issues have valuable points to bring to the table. The topic is too important to become endlessly mired in contentious polarization.

Parkinson, Claire L.↗

NASA NTRS2023

Chapter 7: Food systems

Food systems - including food production, distribution, consumption, and waste disposal - are critical to sustaining livelihoods and delivering nutrition worldwide. However, food systems contribute significantly to the climate crisis, accounting for over 30 percent of human-caused global greenhouse gas emissions (e.g., methane, carbon dioxide, and nitrous oxide). Climate change, in turn, has a significant and growing impact on food systems. Climate change increases heat stress and can lead to deteriorating soil health, for example, slowing agricultural productivity and reducing the nutritional content of crops and livestock. The cascading impacts of climate extremes on agricultural production are likely to destabilize global food security, endangering the livelihoods of billions of people and threatening public health.

Food systems↗

NASA NTRS2013

Response to Comment by Rabilloud on 'prevented Mortality and Greenhouse Gas Emissions from Historical and Projected Nuclear Power'

The critique by Rabilloud-whose only listed professional affiliation is an antinuclear activist groupis grossly biased and contains numerous misleading, hyperbolic, and erroneous claims about our paper2 and about nuclear energy in general. The nature of his comments bears a striking resemblance to the fallacious reasoning commonly employed by climate change deniers to try to undermine public concern about the climate crisis. Specifically, he resorts to cherry-picking of information and diversionary (red herring) arguments, demands unrealistic exactness, and cites untrustworthy sources. None of his claims undermine any of the key results of our paper, most notably our conclusion that nuclear energy has prevented, and can continue to prevent, a very high number of fatalities and very large greenhouse gas emissions due to fossil fuel burning. It follows that, as uncomfortable as it is for many well-intentioned environmentalists to admit, efforts to undermine nuclear energy also undermine mitigation of climate change and air pollution, with a heavy cost in human lives and potentially disastrous future climate change.

claiming↗

NASA NTRS2023

Drought-Tolerant Succulent Plants as an Alternative Crop Under Future Global Warming Scenarios in Sub-Saharan Africa

Globally, we are facing an emerging climate crisis, with impacts to be notably felt in semiarid regions across the world. Cultivation of drought-adapted succulent plants has been suggested as a nature-based solution that could: (i) reduce land degradation, (ii) increase agricultural diversification and provide both economic and environmentally sustainable income through derived bioproducts and bioenergy, (iii) help mitigate atmospheric CO 2 emissions and (iv) increase soil sequestration of CO 2 . Identifying where succulents can grow and thrive is an important prerequisite for the advent of a sustainable alternative ‘bioeconomy’. Here, we first explore the viability of succulent cultivation in Africa under future climate projections to 2100 using species distribution modelling to identify climatic parameters of greatest importance and regions of environmental suitability. Minimum temperatures and temperature variability are shown to be key controls in defining the theoretical distribution of three succulent species explored, and under both current and future SSP5 8.5 projections, the conditions required for the growth of at least one of the species are met in most parts of sub-Saharan Africa. These results are supplemented with an analysis of potentially available land for alternative succulent crop cultivation. In total, up to 1.5 billion ha could be considered ecophysiologically suitable and available for succulent cultivation due to projected declines in rangeland biomass and yields of traditional crops. These findings may serve to highlight new opportunities for farmers, governments and key stakeholders in the agriculture and energy sectors to invest in sustainable bioeconomic alternatives that deliver on environmental, social and economic goals.

agriculture↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

CyanoSCape: Freshwater Phytoplankton and Floating Aquatic Vegetation Biodiversity

In Southern Africa, the impacts of anthropogenic activities on biodiversity and ecosystem services are exacerbated by the climate crisis. Rapid land use change and the lack of emphasis on environmentally sustainable agricultural practices has hindered hydrological processes and compromised riverine and aquatic ecosystems. This poses obvious risks to natural/indigenous aquatic biodiversity and long-term ecosystem sustainability. Phytoplankton serve as the foundation of the freshwater food web with zooplankton as consumers, which feed fish, invertebrates, and so on up the food chain that comprises the biodiversity of the freshwater system that serves as habitat for biodiversity as well. The diversity of phytoplankton (microscopic organisms) includes photosynthesizing bacteria (cyanobacteria), plant-like diatoms, dinoflagellates, and green algae. Nutrient run-off from agricultural fertilizers and urban overflows, warm temperatures, abundant light availability and compromised hydrological systems provide an ideal environment for cyanobacteria to flourish. Increased prevalence of cyanobacteria, due to both natural and anthropogenic causes, can incur significant effects on the biodiversity of the overall phytoplankton assemblage. These bloom forming algae can significantly outcompete other phytoplankton classes in warmer and eutrophic waters where they are quick to dominate the freshwater system. Eutrophication and toxic cyanobacteria blooms (cyanoHABs) in the inland waters of the Greater Cape Floristic Region (GCFR) incur significant effects on the biodiversity of the overall phytoplankton assemblage and provide a favorable environment forthe overgrowth of floating aquatic vegetation (FAV), which is often invasive and associated with reduced aquatic biodiversity. The algal biodiversity of the GCFR’s freshwater systems is not well characterized. Hyperspectral optical observations are expected to facilitate the improvement of current phytoplankton functional type retrievals significantly, as the sensitivity is sufficient that the distinctive, fine spectral features of different phytoplankton groups can be detected. This will enable testing emerging algorithms and inform the development of new algorithms for use with upcoming hyperspectral satellite missions in this decade. Innovations in optical sensor sensitivity and next generation machine learning capabilities considerably enhance the potential for accurate and rapid detection of phytoplankton, namely the presence, extent, and diversity of cyanobacteria present in cyanoHABs and additionally, invasive FAV. Upcoming hyperspectral satellite missions such as NASA’s Surface Biology and Geology (SBG), Plankton, Aerosol, Cloud, ocean Ecosystem (PACE), and the European Space Agency’s Copernicus Hyperspectral Imaging Mission (CHIME) will provide imagery with unprecedented spectral and spatial resolution which will further enable the discovery of linkages between the seasonality and dynamics of HABs and FAV. The overarching goal of this project is to utilize hyperspectral data, with recently developed and next-generation algorithms, to determine the biodiversity of freshwater systems phytoplankton assemblage with emphasis on genus level distinction, as well as monitor the prevalence and diversity of FAV.

CyanoSCape↗

NASA NTRS1988

Cretaceous-Tertiary boundary in the Antarctic: Climatic cooling precedes biotic crisis

Stable isotopic investigations were conducted on calcareous microfossils across two deep sea Cretaceous-Tertiary boundary sequences on Maud Rise, Weddell Sea, Antarctica. The boundary is taken at the level of massive extinctions in calcareous planktonic microfossils, and coincides with a sharp lithologic change from pure calcareous ooze to calcareous ooze with a large volcanic clay component. The uppermost Maestrichtian is marked by a long-term decrease in delta value of 0 to 18 which spans most of the lower and middle A. mayaroensis Zone and represents a warming trend which culminated in surface water temperatures of about 16 C. At approximately 3 meters below the K-T boundary this warming trend terminates abruptly and benthic and planktonic isotopic records exhibit a rapid increase in delta value of 0 to 18 that continues up to the K-T boundary. The trend towards cooler surface water temperatures stops abruptly at the K-T boundary and delta value of 0 to 18 values remain relatively stable through the Paleocene. Comparison of the Antarctic sequence with the previously documented deep sea records in the South Atlantic reveal shifts of similar magnitude in the latest Maestrichtian. It is indicated that the Southern Ocean underwent the most significant, and apparently permanent, climatic change. The latest Cretaceous oxygen isotopic shift recorded at Maud Rise and other deep sea sites is similar in magnitude to large positive delta valve of 0 to 18 shifts in the middle Eocene, at the Eocene/Oligocene boundary and in the middle Miocene that marked large scale climatic transitions which ultimately lead to cryospheric development of the Antarctic. The climatic shift at the end of the Cretaceous represents one of the most significant climatic transitions recorded in the latest Phanerozoic and had a profound effect on global climate as well as oceanic circulation.

Stott, Lowell D.↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Systemic Risk From the Perspective of Climate, Environmental and Disaster Risk Science and Practice

Understanding and managing systemic risk is more important than ever due to our immense global connectivity (e.g., between sectors, such as food-health-water-energy, countries and continents, down to individuals). Despite the fact that the notion of systemic risk is several decades old, the term is used in diverse ways across different disciplines (e.g., financial systems, medicine, earth system sciences, disaster risk research and climate science). Triggered by the repercussions of the global financial crisis of the late 2000s, and more recently the COVID-19 pandemic, which are clear realization of systemic risk, the perception of systemic risk has often been focused on global and catastrophic or even existential risks. Systemic risk, however, can be seen as a feature of systems at all possible scales (e.g., global, national, regional, local) with system boundaries varying depending on the context. Addressing current societal challenges, such as climate change, in terms of systemic risk requires integrating different systems perspectives and fostering system thinking, while implementing key intergovernmental agendas, such as the Paris Agreement, the Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction and the Sustainable Development Goals. Based on insights gained and knowledge collected from an expert workshop, literature review and expert elicitation, we give an integrated perspective of climate, environmental and disaster risk science and practice on systemic risk as summarized in a Briefing Note to the International Science Council. We provide an overview of concepts of systemic risk that have evolved over time and identify commonalities across terminologies and perspectives associated with systemic risk used in different contexts. Key attributes of systemic risk are outlined without prescribing a single definition, and information and data requirements are discussed that are essential for a better and more actionable understanding of the systemic nature of risk. Finally, the opportunities to connect research and policy for addressing systemic risk are highlighted.

systemic risk↗

NASA NTRS1988

Step-wise extinctions at the Cretaceous-Tertiary boundary and their climatic implications

A comparative study of planktonic foraminifera and radiolarian assemblages from the Cretaceous-Tertiary (K-T) boundary section of the Beloc Formation in the southern Peninsula of Haiti, and the lowermost Danian sequence of the Micara Formation in southern Cuba reveals a remarkable pattern of step-wise extinctions. This pattern is consistent in both places despite the widely different lithologies of the two formations. Because of a step-wise extinction and the delayed disappearance of taxa known to be more representative of cooler water realms, it is inferred that a cooling trend which characterized the close of the Maastrichtian and the onset of the Tertiary had the major adverse effect on the existing biota. Although repetitive lithologic and faunal fluctuations throughout the Maastrichtian sediments found at Deep Sea Drilling Project (DSDP) site 146/149 in the Caribbean Sea indicate variations reminiscent of known climatically induced cycles in the Cenozoic, rapid biotic succession appears to have taken place during a crisis period of a duration greater than 2 mission years. Widespread and abundant volcanic activities recorded in the Caribbean area during the crisis period gives further credence to earlier contention that intense volcanism may have played a major role in exhacerbating pre-existing climatic conditions during that time.

Maurrasse, Florentin J-M. R.↗

NASA NTRS2021

COVID-19 Crisis Reduces Free Tropospheric Ozone Across the Northern Hemisphere

Throughout spring and summer 2020, ozone stations in the northern extratropics recorded unusually low ozone in the free troposphere. From April to August, and from 1 to 8 kilometers altitude, ozone was on average 7% (≈4 nmol/mol) below the 2000–2020 climatological mean. Such low ozone, over several months, and at so many stations, has not been observed in any previous year since at least 2000. Atmospheric composition analyses from the Copernicus Atmosphere Monitoring Service and simulations from the NASA GMI model indicate that the large 2020 springtime ozone depletion in the Arctic stratosphere contributed less than one-quarter of the observed tropospheric anomaly. The observed anomaly is consistent with recent chemistry-climate model simulations, which assume emissions reductions similar to those caused by the COVID-19 crisis. COVID-19 related emissions reductions appear to be the major cause for the observed reduced free tropospheric ozone in 2020.

COVID-19↗

NASA NTRS2011

Earth Science Data and Models for Improved Targeting of Humanitarian Aid

Humanitarian assistance to developing countries has long focused on countries that have political, economic and strategic interest to the United States. Recent changes in global security concerns have heightened the perception that humanitarian action is becoming increasingly politicized. This is seen to be largely driven by the 'global war on terror' along with a push by donors and the United Nations for closer integration between humanitarian action and diplomatic, military and other spheres of engagement in conflict and crisis-affected states (HPG 2010). As we enter an era of rising commodity prices and increasing uncertainty in global food production due to a changing climate, scientific data and analysis will be increasingly important to improve the targeting of humanitarian assistance. Earth science data enables appropriate humanitarian response to complex food emergencies that arise in regions outside the areas of current strategic and security focus. As the climate changes, new places will become vulnerable to food insecurity and will need emergency assistance. Earth science data and multidisciplinary models will enable an information-based comparison of need that goes beyond strategic and political considerations to identify new hotspots of food insecurity as they emerge. These analyses will improve aid targeting and timeliness while reducing strategic risk by highlighting new regions at risk of crisis in a rapidly changing world. Improved targeting with respect to timing and location could reduce cost while increasing the likelihood that those who need aid get it.

Brown, Molly E.↗

NASA NTRS2006

Precipitation Measurements from Space: Why Do We Need Them?

Water is fundamental to the life on Earth and its phase transition between the gaseous, liquid, and solid states dominates the behavior of the weather/climate/ecological system. Precipitation, which converts atmospheric water vapor into rain and snow, is central to the global water cycle. It regulates the global energy balance through interactions with clouds and water vapor (the primary greenhouse gas), and also shapes global winds and dynamic transport through latent heat release. Surface precipitation affects soil moisture, ocean salinity, and land hydrology, thus linking fast atmospheric processes to the slower components of the climate system. Precipitation is also the primary source of freshwater in the world, which is facing an emerging freshwater crisis in many regions. Accurate and timely knowledge of global precipitation is essential for understanding the behavior of the global water cycle, improving freshwater management, and advancing predictive capabilities of high-impact weather events such as hurricanes, floods, droughts, and landslides. With limited rainfall networks on land and the impracticality of making extensive rainfall measurements over oceans, a comprehensive description of the space and time variability of global precipitation can only be achieved from the vantage point of space. This presentation will examine current capabilities in space-borne rainfall measurements, highlight scientific and practical benefits derived from these observations to date, and provide an overview of the multi-national Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM) Mission scheduled to be launched in the early next decade.

Hou, Arthur Y.↗

NASA NTRS2007

Precipitation Measurements from Space: The Global Precipitation Measurement Mission

Hou, Arthur Y.↗

NASA NTRS1973

Urban and regional land use analysis: CARETS and Census Cities experiment package

The author has identified the following significant results. The arrival of the so-called energy crisis makes the portion of this experiment dealing with land use climatology of more immediate significance than before, since in addition to helping to understand the processes of climatic change associated with urbanization, the knowledge obtained may be useful in assigning an energy balance impact factor to proposed changes in land use in and around cities. Thermal maps derived from S-192 data are to be used as a measure of the energy being radiated into space from the mosaic of different surfaces in and around the city. While presenting excellent spatial sampling potential for a metropolitan area tests site, the Skylab data permit a very poor temporal sampling opportunity, owing to the large number of factors beyond the investigator's control that determine when data will be taken over a given test site. The strategy is to augment the thermal maps derived from S-192 with a modeling technique which enables the simulation of a number of components of the surface energy balance, calculated at regular time intervals throughout the day or year. Preliminary tests on the performance of the model are still underway, using airborne MSS data from NASA aircraft flights. Results look extremely promising.

Alexander, R. H.↗

NASA NTRS2020

Climate and Anthropogenic Controls on Blue Carbon Sequestration in Hudson River Tidal Marsh, Piermont, New York

Tidal marshes globally are experiencing erosion with sea level rise. In order to adaptively plan for essential marsh preservation, we recognize the importance of the investigation of marsh archives for the perspective they provide toward resilience. Our objective in this study is to examine the relationship of tidal marsh carbon sequestration with both climate change and human impact throughout past centuries and millennia. A Hudson River marsh sediment core spanning the last 2000 years is analyzed for bulk loss on ignition (LOI), bulk density, sedimentation rate, carbon (C) and mineral flux, and x-ray fluorescence (XRF) analysis including lead, copper, titanium and potassium. We compare this record to previously established pollen and spore stratigraphy from the same site, along with an extensive macrofossil based AMS 14C chronology based upon both cores. Carbon accumulation generally follows sediment accumulation rates, which were higher than 200 g C m−2 yr−1 prior to 1500 years ago. Declines in carbon storage rate during the Medieval Warm Period (MWP) are linked to drought, fire, and charcoal, while lesser declines during the Little Ice Age (LIA) are linked to cooling and a shorter growing season. Subsequent human impact with marsh haying practices also led to carbon accumulation rate decline to 100 g C m−2 yr−1. Increases in C sequestration rates in recent decades may be attributable to nitrogen pollution of the estuary, invasive plants, and/or increased flooding, but the lack of mineral sediment threatens their stability. Ecosystem function is declining with the loss of foundational species, and the crisis is deepening for preservation of this habitat. We strongly recommend strategies for minimizing marsh loss.

Climate controls↗

NASA NTRS2021

Flood Monitoring and Crop Damage Assessment

In recent years, the occurrence and impact of inland and coastal flood events have become more frequent and damaging, especially within agricultural fields, due to the global climate change and consistent sea level rise. Monitoring and measuring the magnitude of flood events in a timely manner and assessing the subsequent crop damages accurately are precursors in minimizing detrimental consequences that could potentially lead to a global food security crisis. Traditional gauge-based measurements with sophisticated hydrological models are capable of monitoring flood events precisely but limited within the smaller spatial extent, time-consuming, and costly. In recent decades, advancement in airborne- and satellite-based remote sensing technologies offering products at a daily global spatial extent with various spectral resolution helps address the shortcomings of the traditional in situ approaches in flood monitoring. Furthermore, the methods such as classification and band ratioing using remote sensing products are simple and effective in assessing flood-induced agricultural damages. The combination of remote sensing products and geographic information systems along with the current development in web mapping, users now can get near real-time flood monitoring and crop damage assessments, albeit dependent upon the quality of available data. A case study to quantify the impact of the 2011 Missouri Mississippi River flooding on the surrounding cornfield was performed through a regression model. The model was trained using historical daily NDVI and corn yield across Nebraska and Missouri, and the overall accuracy in estimating corn yield was about 90%. The method implemented in this localized case study could be extended at a larger geographical scale.

Flood monitoring↗

NASA NTRS2013

Toward Global Drought Early Warning Capability - Expanding International Cooperation for the Development of a Framework for Monitoring and Forecasting

Drought has had a significant impact on civilization throughout history in terms of reductions in agricultural productivity, potable water supply, and economic activity, and in extreme cases this has led to famine. Every continent has semiarid areas, which are especially vulnerable to drought. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change has noted that average annual river runoff and water availability are projected to decrease by 10 percent-13 percent over some dry and semiarid regions in mid and low latitudes, increasing the frequency, intensity, and duration of drought, along with its associated impacts. The sheer magnitude of the problem demands efforts to reduce vulnerability to drought by moving away from the reactive, crisis management approach of the past toward a more proactive, risk management approach that is centered on reducing vulnerability to drought as much as possible while providing early warning of evolving drought conditions and possible impacts. Many countries, unfortunately, do not have adequate resources to provide early warning, but require outside support to provide the necessary early warning information for risk management. Furthermore, in an interconnected world, the need for information on a global scale is crucial for understanding the prospect of declines in agricultural productivity and associated impacts on food prices, food security, and potential for civil conflict. This paper highlights the recent progress made toward a Global Drought Early Warning Monitoring Framework (GDEWF), an underlying partnership and framework, along with its Global Drought Early Warning System (GDEWS), which is its interoperable information system, and the organizations that have begun working together to make it a reality. The GDEWF aims to improve existing regional and national drought monitoring and forecasting capabilities by adding a global component, facilitating continental monitoring and forecasting (where lacking), and improving these tools at various scales, thereby increasing the capacity of national and regional institutions that lack drought early warning systems or complementing existing ones. A further goal is to improve coordination of information delivery for drought-related activities and relief efforts across the world. This is especially relevant for regions and nations with low capacity for drought early warning. To do this requires a global partnership that leverages the resources necessary and develops capabilities at the global level, such as global drought forecasting combined with early warning tools, global real-time monitoring, and harmonized methods to identify critical areas vulnerable to drought. Although the path to a fully functional GDEWS is challenging, multiple partners and organizations within the drought, forecasting, agricultural, and water-cycle communities are committed to working toward its success.

GDEWS↗

NASA NTRS2022

Groundwater Variability Across India, Under Contrasting Human and Natural Conditions

Characterizing local to regional scale water cycles and water resources will be crucial for achieving the United Nations' water-related Sustainable Developmental Goals. However, quantification and understanding of groundwater extraction across scales have been hampered by inadequate water usage reporting and limited information on irrigation practices. Here we analyze observations from ∼15,000 groundwater monitoring wells and the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment satellites together with irrigation, agricultural, and meteorological datasets to show how drought-induced coupling between natural and anthropogenic groundwater storage variations has caused sustainability challenges in India, the world's biggest consumer of groundwater for irrigation. Notably, the mechanisms and consequences of such coupling differ significantly depending on aquifer types. In Andhra Pradesh's hard rock aquifer, groundwater declines have been limited, despite the nearly constant water scarcity that its farmers face. Moreover, its free farm power policy involves an annual irrigation energy consumption of 26 billion kWh that costs US$ 2.5 billion, possibly unparalleled compared to any other part of the world of similar size (0.27 million km2). In West Bengal's highly permeable alluvial aquifer, the water table is declining rapidly (15 cm/yr) due to a policy that encourages irrigation. Situated between these two states, Odisha's aquifer shows substantial resilience to drought, owing to the state's relatively natural landscape and forest restoration policy. The findings of this study provide new insights to understand the divergent aspects of groundwater irrigation in north versus south India, which can enable development of adaptation and mitigation strategies to avert the looming water crisis.

Dileep K Panda↗