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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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The Economics of Farming Expansion in the Brazilian Cerrado Under Possible Effects of Climate Change

This analysis assesses the financial viability of legally investing in native Cerrado vegetation deforestation for crop production, considering climate change. The study uses data from twelve different crop models based on three different climate models to predict potential future crop yields in cleared land for growing soy and maize. The outcomes show that in many micro-regions, investments in clearing land for crop production would destroy economic value, that is, generate a negative net present value because of low/negative and volatile cashflows driven primarily by future yields as affected by climate. Our analysis was carried out based on present agricultural practices and technology. As climate changes, farmers may adapt their practices, which can lead to more resilient and productive crops, or grow different crops, which could provide better returns on investment in clearing land than the ones resulting from our analysis. Despite various uncertainties, farmers, policy makers and financial institutions should be aware of the climatic and financial risks associated with land clearing in Brazil, mainly in micro-regions in which all scenarios resulted in negative outcomes in the investment analysis.

agricultural expansion↗

Compound Effects of Climate Change on Future Transboundary Water Issues in the Middle East

The Middle East is one of the world’s most vulnerable areas to climate change, which has exacerbated environmental, agricultural, water conflict, and public health issues in the region. Here we analyze the latest climate model projections of precipitation and temperature for the very high emissions scenario, SSP5-8.5,to detect potential future changes in this region. A baseline period (1981-2010) is compared with the middle(2040-2069) and end (2070-2099) of the 21stcentury. The results, representing the worst-case scenario, identify the Tigris-Euphrates headwaters as the hotspot of future compounding effects of climate change in the Middle East. Those effects result from the coincidence of elevated temperature, reduced precipitation, and enhanced interannual variability of precipitation. The hotspot overlays the location of the Southeastern Anatolia Project (in Turkish, GAP) irrigation initiative. In this climate context, risks to GAP viability and downstream water security, and associated potential for water-related conflicts and migration are considerable and demand a reconsideration of the risk-benefit assessment of GAP. This need has become more urgent after the recent widespread and deadly climate-related conflicts and wildfires in summer 2021 across the Middle East that further underlined vulnerability of the region to climate extremes.

Tigris-Euphrates headwater↗

Drought-Tolerant Succulent Plants as an Alternative Crop Under Future Global Warming Scenarios in Sub-Saharan Africa

Globally, we are facing an emerging climate crisis, with impacts to be notably felt in semiarid regions across the world. Cultivation of drought-adapted succulent plants has been suggested as a nature-based solution that could: (i) reduce land degradation, (ii) increase agricultural diversification and provide both economic and environmentally sustainable income through derived bioproducts and bioenergy, (iii) help mitigate atmospheric CO 2 emissions and (iv) increase soil sequestration of CO 2 . Identifying where succulents can grow and thrive is an important prerequisite for the advent of a sustainable alternative ‘bioeconomy’. Here, we first explore the viability of succulent cultivation in Africa under future climate projections to 2100 using species distribution modelling to identify climatic parameters of greatest importance and regions of environmental suitability. Minimum temperatures and temperature variability are shown to be key controls in defining the theoretical distribution of three succulent species explored, and under both current and future SSP5 8.5 projections, the conditions required for the growth of at least one of the species are met in most parts of sub-Saharan Africa. These results are supplemented with an analysis of potentially available land for alternative succulent crop cultivation. In total, up to 1.5 billion ha could be considered ecophysiologically suitable and available for succulent cultivation due to projected declines in rangeland biomass and yields of traditional crops. These findings may serve to highlight new opportunities for farmers, governments and key stakeholders in the agriculture and energy sectors to invest in sustainable bioeconomic alternatives that deliver on environmental, social and economic goals.

agriculture↗

Assimilation of GRACE Terrestrial Water Storage Observations into a Land Surface Model for the Assessment of Regional Flood Potential

We evaluate performance of the Catchment Land Surface Model (CLSM) under flood conditions after the assimilation of observations of the terrestrial water storage anomaly (TWSA) from NASA's Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE). Assimilation offers three key benefits for the viability of GRACE observations to operational applications: (1) near-real time analysis; (2) a downscaling of GRACE's coarse spatial resolution; and (3) state disaggregation of the vertically-integrated TWSA. We select the 2011 flood event in the Missouri river basin as a case study, and find that assimilation generally made the model wetter in the months preceding flood. We compare model outputs with observations from 14 USGS groundwater wells to assess improvements after assimilation. Finally, we examine disaggregated water storage information to improve the mechanistic understanding of event generation. Validation establishes that assimilation improved the model skill substantially, increasing regional groundwater anomaly correlation from 0.58 to 0.86. For the 2011 flood event in the Missouri river basin, results show that groundwater and snow water equivalent were contributors to pre-event flood potential, providing spatially-distributed early warning information.

flood↗

Mapping Oyster Reef Habitats in Mobile Bay

Oyster reefs around the world are declining rapidly, and although they haven t received as much attention as coral reefs, they are just as important to their local ecosystems and economies. Oyster reefs provide habitats for many species of fish, invertebrates, and crustaceans, as well as the next generations of oysters. Oysters are also harvested from many of these reefs and are an important segment of many local economies, including that of Mobile Bay, where oysters rank in the top five commercial marine species both by landed weight and by dollar value. Although the remaining Mobile Bay oyster reefs are some of the least degraded in the world, projected climate change could have dramatic effects on the health of these important ecosystems. The viability of oyster reefs depends on water depth and temperature, appropriate pH and salinity levels, and the amount of dissolved oxygen in the water. Projected increases in sea level, changes in precipitation and runoff patterns, and changes in pH resulting from increases in the amount of carbon dioxide dissolved in the oceans could all affect the viability of oyster reefs in the future. Human activities such as dredging and unsustainable harvesting practices are also adversely impacting the oyster reefs. Fortunately, several projects are already under way to help rebuild or support existing or previously existing oyster reefs. The success of these projects will depend on the local effects of climate change on the current and potential habitats and man s ability to recognize and halt unsustainable harvesting practices. As the extent and health of the reefs changes, it will have impacts on the Mobile Bay ecosystem and economy, changing the resources available to the people who live there and to the rest of the country, since Mobile Bay is an important national source of seafood. This project identified potential climate change impacts on the oyster reefs of Mobile Bay, including the possible addition of newly viable habitats in the southeastern regions of the Bay.

Bolte, Danielle↗

Projecting the Local Impacts of Climate Change on a Central American Montane Avian Community

Significant changes in the climates of Central America are expected over the next century. Lowland rainforests harbor high alpha diversity on local scales (<1 km2), yet montane landscapes often support higher beta diversity on 10-100 km2 scales. Climate change will likely disrupt the altitudinal zonation of montane communities that produces such landscape diversity. Projections of biotic response to climate change have often used broad-scale modelling of geographical ranges, but understanding likely impacts on population viability is also necessary for anticipating local and global extinctions. We model species abundances and estimate range shifts for birds in the Tilaran Mountains of Costa Rica, asking whether projected changes in temperature and rainfall could be sufficient to imperil high-elevation endemics and whether these variables will likely impact communities similarly. We find that nearly half of 77 forest bird species can be expected to decline in the next century. Almost half of species projected to decline are endemic to Central America, and seven of eight species projected to become locally extinct are endemic to the highlands of Costa Rica and Panam . Logistic-regression modelling of distributions and similarity in projections produced by temperature and rainfall models suggest that changes in both variables will be important. Although these projections are probably conservative because they do not explicitly incorporate biological or climate variable interactions, they provide a starting point for incorporating more realistic biological complexity into community-change models. Prudent conservation planning for tropical mountains should focus on regions with room for altitudinal reorganization of communities comprised of ecological specialists.

Gasner, Matthew R.↗

The Viability of Trajectory Analysis for Diagnosing Dynamical and Chemical Influences on Ozone Concentrations in the UTLS

The viability of trajectory analysis for diagnosing the interplay between chemistry and dynamics is investigated by comparing ozone mixing ratios modelled using air-parcel pathways to values observed along flight tracks during ATTREX (Airborne Tropical TRopopause EXperiment). Trajectories are initiated at the locations of ozone observations and tracked backward in time to their sources at termini of backward trajectories. The modelled values of ozone utilize 3-dimensional analysis fields from WACCM (Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model) (a chemical-climate model with dynamical fields nudged towards MERRA (Modern-Era Retrospective Analysis and Research Applications) reanalysis) and ERA-interim (product of ECMWF - the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts) to determine source mixing ratios with chemical production and loss terms derived from the ozone chemistry used in WACCM. A statistical base of modelled ozone is constructed with 6 trajectory platforms (adiabatic, diabatic, and kinematic forced by ERA-interim and MERRA), two chemical models (WACCM chemistry and no chemistry), and 4 trajectory lengths (5, 10, 20, and 30 days). Linear regression is employed to separate systematic errors from random errors and to characterize the impact of source mixing ratios, path length, vertical motion, and chemistry on modelled ozone errors. Errors in the analysis ozone fields are large, if not dominant, contributors to model error. Random errors are particularly large for point-by-point comparisons, however averaging over 800 km (75 minutes) flight segments substantially reduces random error and exposes systematic errors. Of the two analysis ozone data sets, WACCM, which incorporates detailed chemistry, provides the smaller systematic errors while ERA-interim, which has crude chemistry but assimilates observational data, has the smaller random errors. Of the different trajectory platforms, adiabatic calculations produce the smaller random errors (irrespective of the use of chemistry) but both vertical motion and chemistry are required to optimally reduce systematic errors. These results suggest that meaningful analysis of dynamical and chemical interactions that control ozone mixing ratios are viable on spatial scales larger than a few reanalysis grid spaces, that errors in the analyzed ozone data sets are large but not prohibitively so, and that vertical velocities and heating rates from reanalysis data, while problematic, contain useful information [on the ozone concentrations in the UTLS (Upper Troposphere/Lower Stratosphere)].

ozone↗

Enhanced Weathering Strategies for Stabilizing Climate and Averting Ocean Acidification

Chemical breakdown of rocks, weathering, is an important but very slow part of the carbon cycle that ultimately leads to CO2 being locked up in carbonates on the ocean floor. Artificial acceleration of this carbon sink via distribution of pulverized silicate rocks across terrestrial landscapes may help offset anthropogenic CO2 emissions. We show that idealized enhanced weathering scenarios over less than a third of tropical land could cause significant drawdown of atmospheric CO2 and ameliorate ocean acidification by 2100. Global carbon cycle modelling driven by ensemble Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) projections of twenty-first-century climate change (RCP8.5, business-as-usual; RCP4.5, medium-level mitigation) indicates that enhanced weathering could lower atmospheric CO2 by 30-300 ppm by 2100, depending mainly on silicate rock application rate (1 kg or 5 kg m(exp -2) yr (exp -1)) and composition. At the higher application rate, end-of-century ocean acidification is reversed under RCP4.5 and reduced by about two-thirds under RCP8.5. Additionally, surface ocean aragonite saturation state, a key control on coral calcification rates, is maintained above 3.5 throughout the low latitudes, thereby helping maintain the viability of tropical coral reef ecosystems. However, we highlight major issues of cost, social acceptability, and potential unanticipated consequences that will limit utilization and emphasize the need for urgent efforts to phase down fossil fuel emissions.

Taylor, Lyla L.↗

Enhanced Weathering Strategies for Stabilizing Climate and Averting Ocean Acidification - Supplementary Information

Chemical breakdown of rocks, weathering, is an important but very slow part of the carbon cycle that ultimately leads to CO2 being locked up in carbonates on the ocean floor. Artificial acceleration of this carbon sink via distribution of pulverized silicate rocks across terrestrial landscapes may help offset anthropogenic CO2 emissions. We show that idealized enhanced weathering scenarios over less than a third of tropical land could cause significant drawdown of atmospheric CO2 and ameliorate ocean acidification by 2100. Global carbon cycle modelling driven by ensemble Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) projections of twenty-first-century climate change (RCP8.5, business-as-usual; RCP4.5, medium-level mitigation) indicates that enhanced weathering could lower atmospheric CO2 by 30-300 ppm by 2100, depending mainly on silicate rock application rate (1 kg or 5 kg m(exp. -2) yr (exp -1)) and composition. At the higher application rate, end-of-century ocean acidification is reversed under RCP4.5 and reduced by about two-thirds under RCP8.5. Additionally, surface ocean aragonite saturation state, a key control on coral calcification rates, is maintained above 3.5 throughout the low latitudes, thereby helping maintain the viability of tropical coral reef ecosystems. However, we highlight major issues of cost, social acceptability, and potential unanticipated consequences that will limit utilization and emphasize the need for urgent efforts to phase down fossil fuel emissions.

Taylor, Lyla L.↗

A 30/20 GHz FSS feasibility study

The near term feasibility of direct-to-subscriber services were determined using the 30/20 GHz Fixed Satellite Service (FSS) frequency bands. Those technologies which need to be further developed before such a system can be implemented, were identified. To determine this feasibility, dozens of potential applications were examined for their near-term viability, and the subscriber base of three promising applications were estimated. The system requirements, terminal design, and satellite architecture were all investigated to determine whether a 30/20 GHz FSS system is technically and economically feasible by mid-1990s. It was concluded that such a system is feasible, although maturation of some technologies is needed. This system would likely consist of one or two multibeam satellites serving hub/spoke networks of simple user terminals and more complex, mutli-channel terminals of the service providers. Rain compensation would be accomplished non-adaptively through the use of coding, nonuniform satellite TWT power that is a function of a beam's anticipated downlink fading, and signal regeneration of traffic to the wettest climate regions. It was estimated that a potential market of almost two million users could exist in in the mid-1990s time frame for home banking and financial services via Ka-band satellites.

Source record↗

Warming Early Mars by Impact Degassing of Reduced Greenhouse Gases

Reducing greenhouse gases are once again the latest trend in finding solutions to the early Mars climate dilemma. In its current form collision induced absorptions (CIA) involving H2 and/or CH4 provide enough extra greenhouse power in a predominately CO2 atmosphere to raise global mean surface temperatures to the melting point of water provided the atmosphere is thick enough and the reduced gases are abundant enough. Surface pressures must be at least 500 mb and H2 and/or CH4 concentrations must be at or above the several percent level for CIA to be effective. Atmospheres with 1-2 bars of CO2 and 2- 10% H2 can sustain surface environments favorable for liquid water. Smaller concentrations of H2 are sufficient if CH4 is also present. If thick CO2 atmospheres with percent level concentrations of reduced gases are the solution to the faint young Sun paradox for Mars, then plausible mechanisms must be found to generate and sustain the gases. Possible sources of reducing gases include volcanic outgassing, serpentinization, and impact delivery; sinks include photolyis, oxidation, and escape to space. The viability of the reduced greenhouse hypothesis depends, therefore, on the strength of these sources and sinks. In this paper we focus on impact delivered reduced gases.

Haberle, R. M.↗

Impact Delivery of Reduced Greenhouse Gases on Early Mars

Reducing greenhouse gases are once again the latest trend in finding solutions to the early Mars climate dilemma. In its current form - as proposed by Ramirez et al. [1], later refined by Wordsworth et al. [2], and confirmed by Ramirez [3] - collision induced absorptions between CO2-H2 or CO2-CH4 provide enough extra greenhouse power to raise global mean surface temperatures to the melting point of water provided the atmosphere is thick enough and the reduced gases are abundant enough. To raise surface temperatures significantly by this mechanism, surface pressures must be at least 500 mb and H2 and/or CH4 concentrations must be at or above the several percent level. Both Wordsworth et al. [2] and Ramirez [3] show that the melting point can be reached in atmospheres with 1-2 bars of CO2 and 2-10% H2; smaller concentrations of H2 will suffice if CH4 is also present. If thick weakly reducing atmospheres are the solution to the faint young Sun paradox, then plausible mechanisms must be found to generate and sustain the gases. Possible sources of reducing gases include volcanic outgassing, serpentinization, and impact delivery; sinks include photolyis, oxidation, and escape to space. The viability of the reduced greenhouse hypothesis depends, therefore, on the strength of these sources and sinks.

greenhose gases↗

Cytology of long-term desiccation in the desert cyanobacterium Chroococcidiopsis (Chroococcales)

Young and old cultures (up to 66 months) of two Chroococcidiopsis sp. strains isolated from the Negev desert, Israel, were examined by epifluorescence and electron microscopy. In old cultures, cell viability and autofluorescence were lower than in young cultures. An increase was seen with age in the polysaccharide content of the sheaths of nanocytes and nanocyte mother cells, and a decrease of phycobiliproteins was also seen. In the oldest cultures most of the cells were dead and in various stages of degeneration. Single living cells were scattered among the dead ones. No resting cells were formed in the oldest cultures, but many cell groups showed highly electron-dense sheaths and, in the cytoplasm, ribosomes and glycogen. These changes in cell structure may have a role in preventing water loss from the cell.

NASA Discipline Exobiology↗

Higher Flux from the Young Sun as an Explanation for Warm Temperatures for Early Earth and Mars

Observations indicate that the Earth was at least warm enough for liquid water to exist as far back as 4 Gyr ago, namely, as early as half a billion years after the formation of the Earth; in fact, there is evidence suggesting that Earth may have been even warmer then than it is now. These relatively warm temperatures required on early Earth are in apparent contradiction to the dimness of the early Sun predicted by the standard solar models. This problem has generally been explained by assuming that Earth's early atmosphere contained huge amounts of carbon dioxide (CO2), resulting in a large enough greenhouse effect to counteract the effect of a dimmer Sun. However, recent work places an upper limit of 0.04 bar on the partial pressure of CO2 in the period from 2.75 to 2.2 Gyr ago, based on the absence of siderite in paleosols; this casts doubt on the viability of a strong CO2 greenhouse effect on early Earth. The existence of liquid water on early Mars has been even more of a puzzle; even the maximum possible CO2 greenhouse effect cannot yield warm enough Martian surface temperatures. These problems can be resolved simultaneously for both Earth and Mars, if the early Sun was brighter than predicted by the standard solar models. This could be accomplished if the early Sun was slightly more massive than it is now, i.e., if the solar wind was considerably stronger in the past than at present. A slightly more massive young Sun would have left fingerprints on the internal structure of the present Sun. Today, helioseismic observations exist that can measure the internal structure of the Sun with very high precision. The task undertaken here was to compute solar models with the highest precision possible at this time, starting with slightly greater initial masses. These were evolved to the present solar age, where comparisons with the helioseismic observations could be made. Our computations also yielded the time evolution of the solar flux at the planets - a key input to the climates of early Earth and Mars. Early solar mass loss is not the only influence that can alter the internal structure of the present Sun. There are minor uncertainties in the physics of the solar models and in the key observed solar parameters that also affect the present Sun's internal structure. It was therefore imperative to obtain an understanding of the effects of these other uncertainties, in order to disentangle them from the fingerprints that might be left by early solar mass loss. From these considerations, our work was divided into two parts: (1) We first computed the evolution of standard solar models with input parameters varied within their uncertainties, to determine their effect on the observable helioseismic quantities; (2) We then computed non-standard solar models with higher initial masses to test against the helioseismological observations.

Sackmann, I.-Juliana↗

Using DSCOVR EPIC as an Additional Calibration Reference to Radiometrically Scale the Geo Imagers for the NASA CERES Project

The NASA CERES project provides climate-quality observed TOA and calculated surface fluxes to the climate community. The CERES instruments are mounted on the Aqua, Terra, NPP, and NOAA-20 low earth orbiting (LEO) satellites, where they are used alongside the VIIRS and MODIS based cloud properties necessary for converting CERES radiance observations into fluxes. The CERES SYN1deg product provides the regional hourly fluxes in between the Terra and Aqua/NOAA-20-CERES observations based on geostationary imager (GEO) radiances. The GEO radiances are radiometrically scaled to the MODIS or VIIRS calibration references. The GEO and MODIS inter-calibration events are limited by the Aqua-MODIS or VIIRS local equator crossing time of 1:30 PM. The DSCOVR satellite orbits the Lagrange-1 (L1) point about 1.5 million kilometers from Earth, and the Earth Polychromatic Imaging Camera (EPIC) instrument onboard DSCOVR has a constant view of the sunlit side of the Earth while taking images ranging from the UV to the NIR throughout the day. While the EPIC sensor has no onboard calibration systems, multiple inter-calibration studies have indicated that EPIC is radiometrically stable, which allows it to potentially be used as a transfer radiometer between imagers. This study will assess the viability of using EPIC as a consistent and stable calibration source for GEO imagers. EPIC will be inter-calibrated with Himawari-8 that has been radiometrically scaled with Aqua. The Himawari-8 based EPIC calibration gains will be verified by the EPIC calibration gains determined directly from Aqua-MODIS matches. The EPIC calibration gains based on Himawari-8 will be stratified by local time to determine any diurnal dependence of the GEO/EPIC calibration strategy.

C O Haney↗

Investigating the Relationship between the Cell Wall Integrity Pathway and Unfolded Protein Response

Plants have made significant contributions to astronaut health in spaceflight missions. To further spaceflight research in optimizing plant viability, this study aims to understand the factors involved in maintaining cell wall integrity, which is vital to plant morphology and structural stability. Spaceflight can negatively impact the cell wall; thus, it is crucial to investigate how to mitigate spaceflight stressors to maintain the integrity of the cell wall. The structural integrity of plants’ cell walls depends on secondary cell wall biogenesis, which enables the repair and architectural support of plants like A. thaliana. This biogenesis is triggered by a signal transduction cascade: first initiated by cell wall stress, the CWI (cell wall integrity) pathway is activated, followed by the UPR (unfolded protein response), then the cell wall’s integrity is maintained through secondary cell wall biogenesis. Through a re-analysis of GeneLab Dataset 321 (GLDS-321), a study from NASA’s Open Science Data Repository that investigates the effects of spaceflight on the UPR, several genes were found to be associated with the cell wall. This proposal postulates a relationship between the UPR and the CWI pathway and their direct effect on secondary cell wall biogenesis by investigating IRX7, a gene associated with secondary cell wall biogenesis. The predicted outcome of overexpressing IRX7 is increased resilience of the cell wall by upregulating both the UPR and the CWI pathway, while silencing IRX7 is predicted to compromise the cell wall integrity by downregulating the UPR and the CWI pathway. This study will give insight into the needed measures to increase cell wall resilience in stressful environments: As spaceflight durations increase and uncertain climate change events progress on Earth, understanding how to optimize cell wall resilience – a fundamental pillar of plant health – can effectively enhance mass crop production and quality and ensure the physical and psychological health of astronauts in long-term space missions.

GL4HS↗

Inter-Calibrating CERES Instrument Fluxes Utilizing the CERES Instrument Geostationary Scan Mode Observations

The NASA Clouds and the Earth’s Radiant Energy System (CERES) project provides the scientific community observed top-of-atmosphere (TOA) fluxes to monitor the Earth’s energy imbalance and validate climate models. The CERES instruments onboard the Terra, Aqua, SNPP and NOAA-20 satellites need to be inter-calibrated to provide a continuous and consistent TOA flux record contained in the CERES Energy Balanced and Filled (EBAF) product. The SNPP and NOAA-20 satellites are positioned a half an orbit apart within the same sun-synchronous orbit (1:30 PM equatorial crossing time) thus preventing any direct time-matched observations. The CERES project designed the geostationary scan mode (GEOscan) to inter-calibrate the Geostationary Earth Radiation Budget (GERB) broadband measurement onboard the Meteosat 8-11 satellites. By rotating the orientation of the CERES instrument scan to match the angular configuration of the geostationary scan mode, the comparison of both angle and time matched observations suitable for inter-calibration is possible. To determine if the GEOscan mode is useful for inter-calibrating two CERES instruments placed in the same 16-day repeating orbit, the CERES project placed the Terra and Aqua CERES instruments in GEOscan mode once every 6 days over a rotation of five geostationary domains beginning in February 2023. The GEO imager narrowband to broadband derived radiances are used as transfer radiometers to compare the Terra and Aqua CERES observed radiances. Since both the Terra and Aqua CERES instruments are in GEOscan mode over the same GEO domain and day, the GEO imager calibration is expected to be consistent between the Terra and Aqua overpass times. Any GEO imager narrowband to broadband regional biases should be similar for the Terra and Aqua overpasses. The GEOscan mode Terra and Aqua CERES inter-calibration coefficients for both shortwave and longwave broadband radiances will be compared against the CERES instrument team’s coefficients to determine the viability of this approach. Improvements in the GEO imager narrowband to broadband approaches will also be investigated and verified within this framework.

Kyle Itterly↗