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Retrieval of cloud optical depth, cloud drop effective radius, liquid water path from Cimel Sun-Photometer zenith radiances and MODIS spectral surface albedos at 3 wavelengths (440 nm, 870 nm, and 1640 nm).
A new three-channel (440, 870, and 1640 nm) retrieval algorithm for cloud optical depth has recently been developed by Christine Chiu and her co-workers [Chiu et al., 2012]. This VAP is to implement the three-channel cloud optical depth retrieval algorithm as an ARM operational VAP. First, simultaneously retrieved cloud optical depth and effective radius datasets will be generated by using the pre-calibrated zenith radiance measurements taken from the ARM Sun-Photometer (SPHOT) and the NASA AERONET and Satellite-based surface albedo derived from MODSI. Finally, the algorithm produces uncertainties along with the retrieval products. This VAP outputs a daily NetCDF file.
The output of ground-based, solar power generation systems is strongly dependent on cloud cover, which is the main contributor to solar power variability and uncertainty. Cloud optical properties are typically over-simplified in forecasting applications due to the lack of realtime, accurate estimates. In this work, we introduce a method, the Spectral Cloud Optical Property Estimation (SCOPE), for estimating cloud optical properties directly from high-resolution (5-min, 2 km) imagery from Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite (GOES)-R, which is the newest generation of the GOES system. The SCOPE method couples a two-stream, spectrally resolved radiative model with the longwave GOES-R sensor output to simultaneously estimate the cloud optical depth, cloud top height, and cloud thickness during both day and night at 5-min intervals. The accuracy of SCOPE is evaluated using one year (2018) of downwelling longwave (DLW) radiation measurements from the Surface Radiation Budget Network, which consists of seven sites spread across climatically diverse regions of the contiguous United States. During daytime clear-sky periods, SCOPE predicts DLW within instrument uncertainty (10 W m -2 ) for four of the seven locations, with the remaining locations yielding errors of the order of 11.2, 17.7, and 20.2 W m -2 . For daytime cloudy-sky, daytime all-sky (clear or cloudy), and nighttime all-sky periods, SCOPE achieves root mean square error values of 23.0–34.5 W m -2 for all seven locations. These results, together with the low-latency of the method (1 s per sample), show that SCOPE provides a viable solution to real-time, accurate estimation of cloud optical properties for both day and night.
An approach to drive Lagrangian large eddy simulation (LES) of boundary layer clouds with reanalysis data is presented and evaluated using satellite (Spinning Enhanced Visible and Infrared Imager, SEVIRI) and aircraft (Cloud-Aerosol-Radiation Interactions and Forcing, CLARIFY) measurements. The simulations follow trajectories of the boundary layer flow. They track the formation and evolution of a pocket of open cells (POC) underneath a biomass burning aerosol layer in the free troposphere. The simulations reproduce the evolution of observed stratocumulus cloud morphology, cloud optical depth, and cloud drop effective radius, and capture the timing of the cloud state transition from closed to open cells seen in the satellite imagery on the three considered trajectories. They reproduce a biomass burning aerosol layer identified by the in-situ aircraft measurements above the inversion of the POC. Entrainment of aerosol from the biomass burning layer into the POC is limited to the extent of having no impact on cloud- or boundary layer properties, in agreement with the CLARIFY observations. The two-moment bin microphysics scheme used in the simulations reproduces the in-situ cloud microphysical properties reasonably well. A two-moment bulk microphysics scheme reproduces the satellite observations in the non-precipitating closed-cell state, but overestimates liquid water path and cloud optical depth in the precipitating open-cell state due to insufficient surface precipitation. A boundary layer cold and dry bias occurring in LES can be counteracted by reducing the grid aspect ratio and by tightening the large scale wind speed nudging towards the surface.
This study quantifies the contribution of individual cloud feedbacks to the total short-term cloud feedback in satellite observations over the period 2002–2014 and evaluates how they are represented in climate models. The observed positive total cloud feedback is primarily due to positive high-cloud altitude, extratropical high- and low-cloud optical depth, and land cloud amount feedbacks partially offset by negative tropical marine low-cloud feedback. Seventeen models from the Atmosphere Model Intercomparison Project of the sixth Coupled Model Intercomparison Project are analyzed. The models generally reproduce the observed moderate positive short-term cloud feedback. However, compared to satellite estimates, the models are systematically high-biased in tropical marine low-cloud and land cloud amount feedbacks and systematically low-biased in high-cloud altitude and extratropical high- and low-cloud optical depth feedbacks. Errors in modeled short-term cloud feedback components identified in this analysis highlight the need for improvements in model simulations of the response of high clouds and tropical marine low clouds. Our results suggest that skill in simulating interannual cloud feedback components may not indicate skill in simulating long-term cloud feedback components.
The objective of this research is to develop a hybrid physics-based/data-driven forecast model to improve direct normal and global horizontal irradiance (DNI and GHI) prediction for horizons ranging from 1 to 72 hours. Project objectives also address key gaps in state-of-the-art solar forecasting: accurate probabilistic solar forecasts and the forecasting of large irradiance ramps (ramp onset and magnitude). The proposed model ensembles Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) forecasts, determinist physics-based algorithms, and new-generation cloud cover products (high-resolution rapid refresh satellite images and Large Eddy Simulations). The result is the Hybrid Adaptive Input Model Objective Selection (HAIMOS) ensemble model. HAIMOS blends state of the art machine learning methodologies with physics-based models for cloud cover and cloud optical depth forecasts. The technical activities followed a two-pronged strategy. First, the preprocessing of data, the selection of inputs to the nonlinear approximators, the type of approximator and objective functions, and post-processing ensembling techniques included in HAIMOS were all optimized adaptively to find the best model for a specific goal (reduce DNI/GHI forecast error, improve the prediction of ramp onset, etc.). Second, a large effort was put in improving cloud identification and the forecast of cloud cover and cloud optical depth. To this end, new-generation cloud parametrization products were developed in this work. These include improved algorithms to assist in cloud identification, cloud classification and cloud parametrization from satellite images – three key factors in the accuracy of 1 to 6-hours irradiance forecasts and prediction of ramp onset. Furthermore, we also included cloud information extracted from high resolution rapid refresh satellite images (GOES-16) and Large Eddy Simulations (LES). LES was used to model the atmosphere in detail over locations of interest and produce cloud optical depth forecasts. Once these data streams were validated, they were used as input data to the HAIMOS forecast. The model was developed using data from several climatologically distinct locations with potential for high solar penetration. In the last year of the project, we conducted a validation campaign according to the guidelines stipulated by the Topic Area 1 project as described in the FOA. This effort brings, for the first time, proven machine-learning methodologies for generating state-of-the-art solar forecasts interweaved with detailed physics-based models for cloud detection, and cloud optical depth forecasts. HAIMOS will generate accurate irradiance probabilistic forecast to assist in reducing solar generation prediction error. Globally optimized solar forecast models are more likely to impact solar energy stakeholders. The goal of this project was to increase the state-of-the-art forecast skill from their present values of 10 to 35%. At the end of the project, we achieved between 30% and 50% forecast skill across a wide range of horizons for both GHI and DNI.
he Areal Averaged Albedo VAP yields areal averaged surface spectral albedo estimates from MFRSR measurements collected under fully overcast conditions via a simple one-line equation (Barnard et al., 2008), which links cloud optical depth, normalized cloud transmittance, asymmetry parameter, and areal averaged surface albedo under fully overcast conditions.
The Areal Averaged Albedo VAP yields areal averaged surface spectral albedo estimates from MFRSR measurements collected under fully overcast conditions via a simple one-line equation (Barnard et al., 2008), which links cloud optical depth, normalized cloud transmittance, asymmetry parameter, and areal averaged surface albedo under fully overcast conditions.
The dataset consists of calibrated zenith shortwave spectral radiances (440-1700 nm) and cloud optical depth (COD) retrievals approximately every second. Retrievals of cloud droplet effective radius and thermodynamic phase are currently done offline, but some of these retrievals are included in the dataset. Effective radius and phase are included for days with periods of sufficiently high COD. Effective radius and phase retrievals in the data set were computed at approximately 5-10 second intervals to reduce computation time. The retrievals can be performed at the full sample rate. The field of view is 0.5 degree.
Improving the accuracy of day-ahead solar forecasts using numerical weather prediction models requires improving the forecasting of cloud occurrence and properties. Validating cloud forecasts is challenging because this requires evaluating different types of clouds over a wide variety of regions. This study analyzes the cloud occurrence (or cloud mask) over the contiguous United States (CONUS), predicted by the Weather Research and Forecasting-Solar Ensemble Prediction System (WRF-Solar EPS), to identify the strengths and limitations of the model in reproducing cloud fields. To enable the in-depth analysis of cloud mask forecasts covering CONUS, we use satellite observations from the National Solar Radiation Database (NSRDB). Two evaluation methods are implemented to consider all clouds and partially removed clouds from the 2-km NSRDB in evaluating the 9-km WRF-Solar EPS cloud mask. Cloud detection metrics as well as the frequency of cloud occurrence are used to quantify the monthly performance of WRF-Solar EPS. Mismatched cloud frequency (MCF) is used to assess the model's capability to predict different types of clouds, which are classified using three levels of cloud optical depth (COD) and cloud top height (CTH). The day-ahead forecasts covering the full year of 2018 demonstrate that WRF-Solar EPS produces MCFs ranging from 27%-46%, 13%-34%, and 8%-19% for thin, mid-thickness, and thick clouds, respectively. For three CTH levels, the model shows MCFs ranging from 19%-46%, 16%-33%, and 8%-27% for low-level, middle-level, and high-level clouds, respectively. This comprehensive characterization of model performance helps identify model weakness and will eventually lead to improvements in cloud and solar radiation forecasting.
This study investigates marine and continental stratocumulus (Sc) cloud properties obtained from an automated implementation of a multispectral photometer retrieval. Photometer methods simultaneously retrieve cloud optical depth (τ) and cloud droplet effective radius (r e ), with estimates for liquid water path (LWP) calculated on the availability of those quantities. These applied methods evaluate retrieved cloud properties for Sc identified during a recent 6 year period over the U.S. Department of Energy Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) program sites in Oklahoma, USA (SGP) and in the Azores, Portugal (ENA). Modest agreement in key quantity retrievals is found between the routine photometer products and multisensor collocated profiling references. Cumulative breakdowns contingent on cloud thickness indicate increases in all retrieved quantities in thicker clouds, with larger discrepancies in the relative performance between the retrievals collected in the presence of drizzle. Under continental cloud conditions, the clouds of a similar thickness and r e to those sampled under marine conditions report a factor of 1.5 larger τ and LWP. An r 2 ≅0.65 is found between photometer τ retrievals and shadowband radiometer measurements, with photometer retrievals reporting a high (relative) bias. The τ intercomparisons indicate that variability between retrievals is a factor of three larger than errors reported from individual retrieval input perturbation tests. Photometer r e retrievals suggest a low r 2 (< 0.1) having a standard deviation ≅ 3 µm when compared to ARM baseline multi-sensor radar/radiometer references (accounting for offsets in the cloud droplet number concentration assumptions of the latter). However, photometer LWP calculations remain relatively unbiased in non-drizzling conditions, with errors O (50 g m −2 ) and r 2 ≅0.5 to collocated radiometer and interferometer references. Additional sensitivity tests for island influences on marine Sc properties suggest that while island-influenced winds may promote larger cloud LWP or thickness, the influence could be within retrieval method uncertainty and/or collocated instrument variability.
Cloud droplet spectral relative dispersion is critical to parameterizations of cloud radiative properties, warm-rain initiation, and aerosol-cloud interactions in models; however, there is no consistent relationship between relative dispersion and volume-mean radius in literature, which hinders improving relative dispersion parameterization and calls for physical explanation. Here we show, by analyzing aircraft observations of cumulus clouds during Routine AAF [Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) Aerial Facility] Clouds with Low Optical Water Depths (CLOWD) Optical Radiative Observations, that the correlation between relative dispersion and volume-mean radius changes from positive to negative as volume-mean radius increases. With the new observation, we postulate that the sign of the correlation is determined by whether or not condensation (evaporation) occurs simultaneously with significant new activation (deactivation). The hypothesis is validated by simulations of both an adiabatic cloud parcel model and a parcel model accounting for entrainment-mixing. A new quantity, first bin strength, is introduced to quantify this new observation. Theoretical analysis of truncated gamma and modified gamma size distributions further supports the hypothesis and reconciles the contrasting relationships between relative dispersion and volume-mean radius, including the results in polluted fog observations. The results could shed new light on the so-called “twilight zone” between cloudy and cloud-free air, which in turn affects evaluation of aerosol-cloud interactions and retrieval of aerosol optical depth.
A primary source of uncertainty in Earth system model (ESM) predictions is the representation of cloud processes and associated cloud feedback. Several fundamental cloud properties critical to the understanding of aerosol-cloud interactions are poorly constrained by observations, with key deficiencies in our observations of cloud and precipitation droplet sizes and cloud optical depth. Observations of these cloud properties are often challenging to estimate from remote-sensing platforms and costly to obtain from in situ aircraft. Nevertheless, observations of boundary-layer clouds, and improved knowledge of stratocumulus cloud (Sc) processes, are especially important to ESM advancement. This is because these clouds have extensive coverage and exert controls on boundary-layer dynamics and the global radiative energy balance.
The data set consists of calibrated zenith shortwave spectral radiances (400-950 nm and 940-1665 nm) and cloud optical depth (COD) retrievals every 2 seconds. The field of view is 0.5 degree. Retrievals of cloud droplet effective radius and thermodynamic phase are currently experimental and done offline. Effective radius and phase are not in this data set.
The effective climate sensitivity in the Department of Energy's Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM) has decreased from 5.3 K in version 1 to 4.0 K in version 2. This reduction is mainly due to a weaker positive cloud feedback that leads to a stronger negative radiative feedback. Present-day atmosphere-only experiments with uniform 4 K sea surface temperature warming are used to separate the contributions of individual model modifications to the reduced cloud feedback. We find that the reduced cloud feedback is mostly driven by changes over the tropical marine low cloud regime, mainly related to a new trigger function for the deep convection scheme and modifications in the cloud microphysics scheme. The new trigger function helps weaken the low cloud reduction by increasing the cloud water detrainment at low levels from deep convection under warming. Changes to the formula of autoconversion rate from liquid to rain and an introduced minimum cloud droplet number concentration threshold in cloud microphysical calculations help sustain clouds against dissipation by suppressing precipitation generation with warming. In the midlatitudes, the increased Wegener-Bergeron-Findeisen (WBF) efficiency strongly reduces present-day liquid water and leads to a stronger negative cloud optical depth feedback. The reduced trade cumulus cloud feedback in v2 is closer to estimates from recent observational and large-eddy modeling studies but might not be due to the right physical reasons. The reduced mid-latitude cloud feedback may be more plausible because more realistic present-day mixed-phase clouds are produced through the change in the WBF efficiency.
The ice cloud detection sensitivity of the millimeter cloud radar (MMCR) and the Ka-band Zenith radar (KAZR) is investigated using a collocated Raman lidar (RL) at the Atmospheric Radiation Measurement Program Southern Great Plains site. Only profiles that are transparent to the RL with ice clouds only are considered in this study. The MMCR underestimates the RL ice cloud optical depth (COD) by 20%. The MMCR detects no ice clouds in 37% of the profiles. These profiles where ice cloud goes undetected by the MMCR typically contain very optically thin clouds, with a mean RL ice COD of 0.03. Higher ice cloud detection sensitivity is found for the KAZR, which underestimates the RL ice COD by 15%. The decrease in the ice COD bias for the KAZR compared to the MMCR is largely due to a decrease in the ice COD bias for the situation where the transparent profiles with ice clouds are detected by both the RL and cloud radar. The climatic net ice cloud radiative effects (CREs) from the RL at the top of the atmosphere (TOA) and the surface are 3.2 W m−2 and −0.6 W m−2, respectively. The ice CREs at the TOA and surface are underestimated for the MMCR by 0.7 W m−2 and 0.16 W m−2 (21% and 29%) and underestimated for the KAZR by 0.6 W m−2 and 0.14 W m−2 (17% and 24%). The ice clouds undetected by the cloud radars led to underestimating the climatic net cloud heating rates below 150 hPa by about 0–0.04 K day−1.
The turbulent entrainment-mixing process in the Community Earth System Model version 1.2 (CESM1.2) is assumed to follow the extremely inhomogeneous entrainment-mixing. However, different entrainment-mixing scenarios can occur in real clouds. To address this deficiency, a unifying parameterization that represents different entrainment-mixing processes is implemented and evaluated in CESM1.2. The results indicate that the homogeneous mixing degree values simulated by the new parameterization in CESM1.2 are predominantly greater than 50%, suggesting a tendency toward homogeneous mixing. Compared to the extremely inhomogeneous mixing mechanism, the new parameterization increases the cloud droplet number concentration (Nc). More importantly, the new parameterization improves low-cloud fraction (CLDLOW) simulation in Northwest Pacific (NWP) and Southeast Pacific (SEP) regions, with relative improvements of 2.95% and 4.17%, respectively. Furthermore, the improvements reach up to 44.6% and 16.2% in the NWP and SEP regions, respectively, when considering the relationship between N c and CLDLOW. Further analysis reveals that the new parameterization enhances cloud optical depth, longwave radiative cooling effect, net condensation rate, cloud water mixing ratio, lower-troposphere stability, and CLDLOW by increasing N c . Additionally, these results underscore the importance of improving entrainment-mixing parameterization in climate models.
This study addresses the longstanding question of the reliability of gridded visible/infrared satellite cloud properties in partially cloudy scenes. By using in-situ cloud probes and airborne Research Scanning Polarimeter (RSP) observations, we analyze bias changes in satellite retrievals from the Spinning Enhanced Visible Infra-Red Imager (SEVIRI) geostationary sensor during the ORACLES campaign. Biases in cloud optical depth (τ) and droplet effective radius (r e ) modestly change for cloud area fraction greater than 35%. The agreement between SEVIRI and RSP r e substantially improves when the retrievals are averaged after removing pixels with τ < 3.0, yielding biases indistinguishable from overcast scenes. In addition, satellite and RSP show an excellent agreement for closed- and open-cell stratocumulus clouds, showing that the satellite retrievals capture spatial changes of r e , and confirming that satellites can faithfully reproduce real physical features for optically thick and partially cloudy scenes. We demonstrate that a simple methodology can minimize uncertainties in satellite-based climate studies.