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17 records
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2025

Implications of Changes in Water Stress and Precipitation Extremes for Cocoa Production in Côte D'ivoire and Ghana

ABSTRACT Climate change induces high variability in drought patterns and extreme precipitation indices in rainfed cocoa farming, impacting cocoa production. This study evaluated water stress, meteorological and agricultural drought conditions, and critical extreme precipitation indices in the world's two largest cocoa‐producing nations from 1981 to 2022. The results revealed a significant reduction in total annual precipitation (PRCPTOT), in the last three decades, with the greatest decline in the 1991–2000 and 2011–2022 periods. Ghana experienced the most significant reduction up to 15% (200 mm/year) in the last decade, attributed to a substantial decrease in wet days number (RR1) up to 25 days per year, a reduction in maximum consecutive wet days (CWD) up to 6 days per year, and an increase in maximum consecutive dry days (CDD) up to 15 days per year. Moreover, there was a notable decline in the Simple Daily Intensity Index (SDII), with reductions of up to 4 mm/day in certain areas, contributing to increased drought frequency, severity, and duration. In the most recent decade (2011–2022), particularly during the extremely dry years of 2013 and 2015, cocoa‐growing regions in Ghana (GHA) and eastern Côte d'Ivoire (CIV) experienced prolonged agricultural drought expressed by soil moisture deficit, typically extending from May to September. Additionally, large portions of central and eastern Ghana, as well as northeastern Côte d'Ivoire experienced sustained water stress, with over three consecutive months of total monthly precipitation falling below 100 mm, negatively impacting cocoa productivity. The decrease in the yield in the range of 2.5% to 37% was noted in the dry years and the following years, varying according to the country depending on the severity of the drought. Sensitivity analysis highlights cocoa yield's responsiveness to drought and water stress, particularly in specific years when water stress occurred, such as 1984,1985, 1989, 1995, 1999, 2000, and 2008. Considering the observed trends in precipitation patterns and their impact on cocoa production, it is crucial to acknowledge the inherent uncertainty of future precipitation patterns due to climate change. To address this challenge effectively, our study underscores the importance of identifying and closely monitoring regions currently facing water stress, as determined by precipitation and drought indicators. Over the analysed period (1981–2022), we have noted shifts in the distribution of water‐stressed areas, highlighting the dynamic nature of this issue. Consequently, we advocate for a targeted approach to implement cocoa supplementary irrigation in consistently water‐stressed regions.

Obahoundje, Salomon [International Water Managemen↗
DOE OSTI2023

Tropical Tree Crop Simulation with a Process-Based, Daily Timestep Simulation Model (ALMANAC): Description of Model Adaptation and Examples with Coffee and Cocoa Simulations

Coffee (Coffea species) and Cocoa (Theobroma cacao) are important cash crops grown in the tropics but traded globally. This study was conducted to apply the ALMANAC model to these crops for the first time, and to test its ability to simulate them under agroforestry management schemes and varying precipitation amounts. To create this simulation, coffee was grown on a site in Kaua’i, Hawai’i, USA, and cocoa was grown on a site in Sefwi Bekwai, Ghana. A stand-in for a tropical overstory tree was created for agroforestry simulations using altered parameters for carob, a common taller tropical tree for these regions. For both crops, ALMANAC was able to realistically simulate yields when compared to the collected total yield data. On Kaua’i, the mean simulated yield was 2% different from the mean measured yield, and in all three years, the simulated values were within 10% of the measured values. For cocoa, the mean simulated yield was 3% different from the mean measured yield and the simulated yield was within 10% of measured yields for all four available years. When precipitation patterns were altered, in Ghana, the wetter site showed lower percent changes in yield than the drier site in Hawai’i. When agroforestry-style management was simulated, a low Leaf Area Index (LAI) of the overstory showed positive or no effect on yields, but when LAI climbed too high, the simulation was able to show the detrimental effect this competition had on crop yields. These simulation results are supported by other literature documenting the effects of agroforestry on tropical crops. This research has applied ALMANAC to new crops and demonstrated its simulation of different management and environmental conditions. The results show promise for ALMANAC’s applicability to these scenarios as well as its potential to be further tested and utilized in new circumstances.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

COCOA: A compact Compton camera for astrophysical observation of MeV-scale gamma rays

COCOA (COmpact COmpton cAmera) is a next-generation gamma-ray telescope designed for astrophysical observations in the MeV energy range. The detector comprises a scatterer volume employing the LiquidO detection technology and an array of scintillating crystals acting as absorber. Surrounding plastic scintillator panels serve as a veto system for charged particles. The detector's compact, scalable design enables flexible deployment on microsatellites or high-altitude balloons. Gamma rays at MeV energies have not been well explored historically (the so-called "MeV gap") and COCOA has the potential to improve the sensitivity in this energy band.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2024

Advancing set-conditional set generation: Diffusion models for fast simulation of reconstructed particles

The computational intensity of detector simulation and event reconstruction poses a significant difficulty for data analysis in collider experiments. This challenge inspires the continued development of machine learning techniques to serve as efficient surrogate models. We propose a fast emulation approach that combines simulation and reconstruction. In other words, a neural network generates a set of reconstructed objects conditioned on input particle sets. To make this possible, we advance set-conditional set generation with diffusion models. Using a realistic, generic, and public detector simulation and reconstruction package (COCOA), we show how diffusion models can accurately model the complex spectrum of reconstructed particles inside jets.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗
DOE OSTI2023

Degradation of Monocrystalline Silicon Photovoltaic Modules From a 10-Year-Old Rooftop System in Florida

A system of 180 monocrystalline aluminum back-surface field modules were installed in Cocoa, Florida, for 10 years. In total, 156 modules are characterized and compared to 3 controls. Power degradation rates vary between – 0.14% to – 3.22% per year, with median and average rates of –0.92% and –1.05% per year, respectively. The losses are primarily resistive with minor optical and recombination loss contributions. Electroluminescence imaging shows a characteristic pattern, which is shown to be resistive in nature when compared to photoluminescence. Resistive losses are due to corrosion of the rear contact Ag/solder interface and, to a much lesser degree, gridline Ag oxidation. Moisture ingress through the backsheet is likely responsible for mediating corrosion. Optical losses are due mostly to a combination of antireflection coating degradation, minor encapsulant browning, and delamination. Minor front contact corrosion may contribute to recombination. Furthermore, this study expands upon previous work on this vintage of the module by examining a large sample set, comprehensive characterization including techniques not previously used on these modules, and a comparison between two other systems of different climates.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2023

A Comparison of Emerging and Industry Benchmark Photovoltaic Backsheets Between Different Outdoor Locations

Recent interest within the photovoltaic (PV) module industry is largely directed toward enhanced lifetimes in the field, balanced with improved recyclability. Traditionally, fluoropolymer-based backsheets have been used, however, are difficult to recycle. Emerging polyolefin (PO)-based backsheets are more recyclable and can be formulated to be robust. Properties of different fluoropolymer- and non-fluoropolymer-based backsheet coupons and in encapsulated silicon mini modules that have been fielded in Albuquerque, NM and Cocoa, FL are reported here. Seven backsheets were examined: two novel PO's, TPT, APO, PPE, AAA, and KPf. Methods of examination include module electrical performance (I - V flash test), surface morphology (optical microscope and gloss), polymer chemical structure (FTIR), EL imaging, mechanical tensile testing, DC breakdown voltage, DSC (phase transitions), and optical performance (reflectance spectra).

industries↗
DOE OSTI2024

Enhanced Machine-Learning Flow for Microwave-Sensing Systems for Contaminant Detection in Food

The presence of foreign bodies in packaged food is a serious concern for both fnal consumers (allergies, injuries, choking) and food manufacturers (reputation and economic losses). In particular, low-density plastics, glass and wood splinters are hard to detect even by the most advanced X-ray imagers. One solution is Machine-Learning-based Microwave Sensing (MLMWS): a non-invasive, contactless, and real-time method which uses a machine-learning (ML) classifer to analyze the scattered microwaves from the irradiated target object. In this paper, we want to extend our previous work about contaminant detection in cocoa-hazelnut spread jars by proposing an enhanced ML flow to increase the accuracy of the ML classifier. For the first time in this case study, we use a multi-class classifier, we train it with scattering parameters measured at multiple microwave frequencies, with a new pre-processing scaler, data augmentation, quantization-aware training and a pruning schedule. The results show a contaminant detection multi-class accuracy of 94.167% with a latency of 26 µs when targeting an AMD/Xilinx Kria K26 FPGA. Finally, we released our datasets publicly to OpenML.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗
DOE OSTI2024

Summary Report of the SOS26 Workshop held March 11-14, 2024

The SOS26 workshop was organized by Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL) and held March 11-14, 2024, at Cocoa Beach, Florida. The SOS is a workshop organized annually, with a focus on distributed high performance computing (HPC). The technical program of the workshop was developed jointly by Sandia National Laboratories (SNL), ORNL and the Swiss National Supercomputing Center (CSCS). The 2024 SOS26 workshop theme was "Versatile HPC for the evolving and expanding needs of science" and had seven technical sessions covering HPC, data and machine learning (ML) topics. Each session consisted of four or five presentations, followed by a panel discussion. This report documents the workshop proceedings covering all the technical sessions.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2025

Ultraviolet Fluorescence Imaging for Photovoltaic Module Metrology: Best Practices and Survey of Features Observed in Fielded Modules

As the photovoltaics (PV) industry grows in sophistication, so must the extent to which systems are characterized. UV Fluorescence (UVF) imaging is a valuable, easy-to-perform, high-throughput, nonintrusive technique for characterizing modules in the field and in the lab. However, UVF is still a relatively new technique, and many in the PV industry are still unaware of its potential. We provide a guideline for obtaining, processing, and interpreting UVF images. We have provided a list of considerations for imaging hardware and settings, a suggested pipeline for image processing, and details on a survey of features shown in UVF images. As a result, a new database with UVF images of 7190 modules and another database curated by BrightSpot Automation are publicly available.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2025

Comparing Outdoor to Indoor Performance for Bifacial Modules Affected by Polarization-Type Potential-Induced Degradation

Bifacial photovoltaic (PV) modules have the advantage of using light reflected off of the ground to contribute to power production. Predicting the energy gain is challenging and requires complex models to do so accurately. Often, module degradation over time is neglected in models for the sake of simplicity or is underestimated. Comparing outdoor and indoor current–voltage (I–V) performance for bifacial modules is more challenging than for monofacial modules, as there are additional variables to consider such as rear albedo non-uniformity, cell mismatch, and their effects on temperature. This challenge is compounded when heterogeneous degradation modes occur, such as polarization-type potential-induced degradation (PID-p). To examine the effects of PID-p on I–V predictions using an empirical data-driven approach, 16 bifacial PERC modules are installed outdoors on racks with different albedo conditions. A subset is exposed to high-voltage biases of −1500 V or +1500 V. Outdoor data are traced at irradiance ranges of 150–250 W/m 2 , 500–600 W/m 2 , and 900–1000 W/m 2 . These curves are corrected using control module temperature, wire resistivity, and module resistance measured indoors. We examine several methods to transform indoor I–V curves to accurately, and more simply than existing methods, approximate outdoor performance for bifacial modules without and with varying levels of PID-p degradation. This way, bifacial performance modeling can be more accessible and informed by fielded, degraded modules. Distributions of percent errors between indoor and outdoor performance parameters and Mean Absolute Percent Errors (MAPEs) are used to assess method quality. Results including low-irradiance data (150–250 W/m 2 ) are discussed but are filtered for quantifying method quality as these data introduce substantial errors. The method with the most optimal tradeoff between low MAPE and analysis simplicity involves measuring the front side of a module indoors at an irradiance equal to plane-of-array irradiance plus the product of module bifaciality and albedo irradiance. This method gives MAPE values of 1–6.5% for non-degraded and 1.6–5.9% for PID-p degraded module performance.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2026

Reimagining Heating, Ventilation, and Air Conditioning for New Manufactured Homes

Manufactured homes represent one of the most affordable paths to home ownership for American households, but minimum-efficiency equipment and poor-quality home installation can lead to excess energy use and high operating costs. Slipstream, with partners from the Florida Solar Energy Center (FSEC), Northwest Energy Works, and Washington State University, identified and tested manufactured home HVAC innovations targeted for new construction offering the most promising mix of improved energy performance and likelihood of industry uptake.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
DOE OSTI2026

Evidence of Polarization‐Type Potential‐Induced Degradation (PID‐p) in the Field and Investigation of the Recovery Mechanism on Bifacial p ‐PERC Modules

This study investigates the polarization-type potential-induced degradation (PID-p) of bifacial glass/glass p-type passivated emitter rear contact (p-PERC) modules in the field and their recovery behavior. Modules were installed with three mounting configurations providing different albedo conditions. System voltage (–600, –1500, and +1500 V) was applied to the cell circuits, with respect to the grounded module frames. No degradation was observed for positively biased modules, but PID-p was identified on the rear side when cells are negatively biased, with maximum power dropping during the first days and stabilizing at values up to 8% loss. Electroluminescence images revealed a variation of the cells' PID-p susceptibility within a module. Three parameters were shown to impact the degradation rate: rear albedo light, voltage, and wetness conditions. Degraded modules were recovered either by (1) a positive bias (+1500 V), (2) outdoor illumination with the front side facing sun, (3) outdoor illumination with the rear side facing sun, or (4) dark storage. A recovery pattern was identified with I–V parameters decreasing to a local minimum before increasing to full recovery. The proposed mechanism is based on the band bending at the rear p-type Si/AlO x/SiN x interface, going from inversion to depletion and accumulation states. Full recovery was achieved in 2–7 h for the modules recovered with the rear side facing sun, four to eight nights for the modules positively biased at night, and 10–20 days for the modules with the front side facing sun. Dark storage showed slower recovery rates as I–V parameters were not improving even after 1 month. Here, the recovery rates were correlated with the net Coulombs transferred during the preceding PID stress: When more Coulombs are transferred during the degradation, the extent of degradation is greater, leading to slower recovery rates.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2025

Polarization-type potential-induced degradation in bifacial PERC modules in the field

This study examines the susceptibility of bifacial glass/glass passivated emitter and rear cell (PERC) modules to potential-induced degradation-polarization (PID-p) in the field. While there are several studies showing PID-p occurring on both front and back faces of bifacial PERC in accelerated tests, we address the yet unclarified behavior in fielded modules. We examine the effects of mounting configuration; specifically, comparing modules mounted near ground and in elevated ground rack configurations. Modules with the cell circuit in -1500 V system voltage configuration, whether mounted on racks about 30 cm above the ground or elevated 2 m high showed mean degradation of 4.5% to 6% in power under standard test conditions over about 2.5 weeks as measured from the front side of the module. This extent of degradation remained sustained for a duration of about 6 months analyzed. Average daytime temperatures of modules in the various mounting configurations were similar and therefore judged to be insufficient to be a primary influence for the modest PID-p rate differences that we observed among mounting configurations. Increased leakage current in the morning suggests morning dew was sustained longer on modules near the ground measured over six months which would be expected to increase the PID-p rate over the long term. However, the main difference seen between the modules on the various mountings during the initial period with up to 6% mean degradation by PID-p was the approximately two times the irradiance from albedo on the rear of modules mounted in elevated ground rack compared to those on the near ground rack. This difference in incident albedo led to a modestly reduced rate of the development of PID-p of the modules on the elevated ground rack. The difference is attributed to the dissipation of PID-p-causing electrical charge by the albedo incident on the module rear. The behavior could be modeled by a sigmoidal equation with consideration of the differences in the insolation on the module rear.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2025

Market Driven Residential Energy Codes: Comparing Performance in a Changing Technological Environment

The research project is undertaken to better understand the changing relationship between the two basic methods of building energy code compliance – prescriptive and performance – and how those methods relate to each other with respect to advancements in building energy computer simulation standards and capabilities. The International Energy Efficiency Code (IECC) is a model code adopted by many jurisdictions across the United States. Historically, the prescriptive compliance methodology has been preferred in most jurisdictions. The prescriptive methodology requires meeting or exceeding specific efficiency minimums for each envelope component. This tends to be a simple method to teach and verify. A more involved prescriptive alternative called the Total UA alternative is sometimes used. This method requires some multiplication, summing, and comparison to compute, so it is done with a fairly simple computer program. However, advances in computer and building energy simulation technology have resulted in increased use of more detailed performance compliance methods. The performance compliance method establishes the annual energy cost threshold via hourly simulation models. The compliance threshold is determined with a comparison building model simulation with geometry similar to the proposed home and with energy feature parameters and efficiencies as specified in the IECC. This project examines relationships between the two methods of building energy code compliance, including: • Overall annual energy use based on utility bill analysis by compliance method • Code official work processes with respect to compliance methods • Gaps and issues associated with building code compliance methods • Simulated energy use difference between compliance methods • Code compliance cost as a function of compliance method • Code compliance labeling effectiveness for high performance residences • Getting to net zero energy use and net zero greenhouse gas emissions through high performance code alternatives • Electronic code permitting and compliance alternatives

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2025

Field Testing of PID-p Susceptible Bifacial PERC Modules: Impact of Light, Voltage and Module History ​

This work investigates the potential induced degradation-polarization (PID-p) of bifacial passivated emitter and rear contact (PERC) modules installed in the field at the Florida Solar Energy Center. 22 modules were stressed over 1 year under various voltage (-1500V, -3500, +1500V) and mounting configurations (close to ground, 2 meters from ground, close to roof). The positively stressed modules were anticipated to have experiences PID-p on their front side. However, no degradation was observed, as the light-induced recovery effect effectively counteracted the degradation. The negatively stressed modules experienced Pmax drops during 2 weeks before stabilizing at 5-6% loss. I-V and EL characteristics suggest a PID-p degradation on the rear side. Lower degradation rates are observed with lower voltage and when the mounting configuration allows more albedo light on the rear side to compensate for the degradation. PID-p is observed to stabilize at similar level for the voltage and mounting configuration tested with slightly lower Pmax in winter. EL imaging reveals that cells are not degrading at the same rate across a module. Some cells get darker and then brighter which corresponds to the silicon/passivation interface going through depletion and then inversion when enough positive charges are accumulated. After full light-recovery, the modules were tested again along with 22 brand-new ones to assess the impact of the module history. Results confirmed the trends observed in the first year with PID-p occurring at voltage as low as -600V and recovered modules degrading faster than brand-new ones.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2025

Overview of the SCEC/USGS Community Stress Drop Validation Study Using the 2019 Ridgecrest Earthquake Sequence

We present initial findings from the ongoing Community Stress Drop Validation Study to compare spectral stress-drop estimates for earthquakes in the 2019 Ridgecrest, California, sequence. This study uses a unified dataset to independently estimate earthquake source parameters through various methods. Stress drop, which denotes the change in average shear stress along a fault during earthquake rupture, is a critical parameter in earthquake science, impacting ground motion, rupture simulation, and source physics. Spectral stress drop is commonly derived by fitting the amplitude-spectrum shape, but estimates can vary substantially across studies for individual earthquakes. Sponsored jointly by the U.S. Geological Survey and the Statewide (previously, Southern) California Earthquake Center our community study aims to elucidate sources of variability and uncertainty in earthquake spectral stress-drop estimates through quantitative comparison of submitted results from independent analyses. The dataset includes nearly 13,000 earthquakes ranging from M 1 to 7 during a two-week period of the 2019 Ridgecrest sequence, recorded within a 1° radius. Here, in this article, we report on 56 unique submissions received from 20 different groups, detailing spectral corner frequencies (or source durations), moment magnitudes, and estimated spectral stress drops. Methods employed encompass spectral ratio analysis, spectral decomposition and inversion, finite-fault modeling, ground-motion-based approaches, and combined methods. Initial analysis reveals significant scatter across submitted spectral stress drops spanning over six orders of magnitude. However, we can identify between-method trends and offsets within the data to mitigate this variability. Averaging submissions for a prioritized subset of 56 events shows reduced variability of spectral stress drop, indicating overall consistency in recovered spectral stress-drop values.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Open data sets for assessing photovoltaic system reliability

Photovoltaic (PV) systems have become a cornerstone of renewable energy strategies, particularly due to the significant reduction in solar power costs over the past decade. However, the long-term reliability of PV installations presents a persistent challenge, requiring the development of advanced monitoring and predictive maintenance strategies. A wide range of data types is used to evaluate the health of PV systems, including environmental conditions, electrical performance, and inspection imagery. These data enable methodologies such as machine learning (ML) models for lifetime prediction and computer vision techniques for defect detection. However, the acquisition of high-quality and comprehensive data is difficult, particularly in terms of long-term consistency and data variety. Publicly available data sets serve as valuable resources for addressing these challenges, but they often suffer from fragmentation and are difficult to access. This paper presents a comprehensive review of existing open-source data sets related to PV degradation, analyzing their features, functionalities, and potential applications. We categorize these data sets based on the specific aspects of PV system information they cover, such as environmental conditions, operational monitoring, image inspection and module materials, and propose relevant tools and ML models for processing them. In addition, we propose practices for future data collection and usage, while also discussing potential directions in data-driven research. Our aim is to enhance data utilization and publication among researchers and industry professionals, promoting a deeper understanding of the role of data in enhancing the performance and durability of PV systems.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗