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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 19 records
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS2014

Combined Uncertainty and A-Posteriori Error Bound Estimates for General CFD Calculations: Theory and Software Implementation

This workshop presentation discusses the design and implementation of numerical methods for the quantification of statistical uncertainty, including a-posteriori error bounds, for output quantities computed using CFD methods. Hydrodynamic realizations often contain numerical error arising from finite-dimensional approximation (e.g. numerical methods using grids, basis functions, particles) and statistical uncertainty arising from incomplete information and/or statistical characterization of model parameters and random fields. The first task at hand is to derive formal error bounds for statistics given realizations containing finite-dimensional numerical error [1]. The error in computed output statistics contains contributions from both realization error and the error resulting from the calculation of statistics integrals using a numerical method. A second task is to devise computable a-posteriori error bounds by numerically approximating all terms arising in the error bound estimates. For the same reason that CFD calculations including error bounds but omitting uncertainty modeling are only of limited value, CFD calculations including uncertainty modeling but omitting error bounds are only of limited value. To gain maximum value from CFD calculations, a general software package for uncertainty quantification with quantified error bounds has been developed at NASA. The package provides implementations for a suite of numerical methods used in uncertainty quantification: Dense tensorization basis methods [3] and a subscale recovery variant [1] for non-smooth data, Sparse tensorization methods[2] utilizing node-nested hierarchies, Sampling methods[4] for high-dimensional random variable spaces.

CFD↗
NASA NTRS2014

Combined Uncertainty and A-Posteriori Error Bound Estimates for CFD Calculations: Theory and Implementation

Simulation codes often utilize finite-dimensional approximation resulting in numerical error. Some examples include, numerical methods utilizing grids and finite-dimensional basis functions, particle methods using a finite number of particles. These same simulation codes also often contain sources of uncertainty, for example, uncertain parameters and fields associated with the imposition of initial and boundary data,uncertain physical model parameters such as chemical reaction rates, mixture model parameters, material property parameters, etc.

CFD↗
NASA NTRS2023

Reducing Aerosol Forcing Uncertainty by Combining Models With Satellite and Within-The-Atmosphere Observations: A Three-Way Street

Aerosol forcing uncertainty represents the largest climate forcing uncertainty overall. Its magnitude has remained virtually undiminished over the past 20 years despite considerable advances in understanding most of the key contributing elements. Recent work has produced modest increases only in the confidence of the uncertainty estimate itself. This review summarizes the contributions toward reducing the uncertainty in the aerosol forcing of climate made by satellite observations, measurements taken within the atmosphere, as well as modeling and data assimilation. We adopt a more measurement-oriented perspective than most reviews of the subject in assessing the strengths and limitations of each; gaps and possible ways to fill them are considered. Currently planned programs supporting advanced, global-scale satellite and surface-based aerosol, cloud, and precursor gas observations, climate modeling, and intensive field campaigns aimed at characterizing the underlying physical and chemical processes involved, are all essential. But in addition, new efforts are needed: (a) to obtain systematic aircraft in situ measurements capturing the multi-variate probability distribution functions of particle optical, microphysical, and chemical properties (and associated uncertainty estimates), as well as co-variability with meteorology, for the major aerosol airmass types; (b) to conceive, develop, and implement a suborbital (aircraft plus surface-based) program aimed at systematically quantifying the cloud-scale microphysics, cloud optical properties, and cloud-related vertical velocities associated with aerosol-cloud interactions; and (c) to focus much more research on integrating the unique contributions of satellite observations, suborbital measurements, and modeling, to reduce the persistent uncertainty in aerosol climate forcing.

aerosol climate forcing↗
NASA NTRS2013

Assessing the Temperature Dependence of Narrow-Band Raman Water Vapor Lidar Measurements: A Practical Approach

Narrow-band detection of the Raman water vapor spectrum using the lidar technique introduces a concern over the temperature dependence of the Raman spectrum. Various groups have addressed this issue either by trying to minimize the temperature dependence to the point where it can be ignored or by correcting for whatever degree of temperature dependence exists. The traditional technique for performing either of these entails accurately measuring both the laser output wavelength and the water vapor spectral passband with combined uncertainty of approximately 0.01 nm. However, uncertainty in interference filter center wavelengths and laser output wavelengths can be this large or larger. These combined uncertainties translate into uncertainties in the magnitude of the temperature dependence of the Raman lidar water vapor measurement of 3% or more. We present here an alternate approach for accurately determining the temperature dependence of the Raman lidar water vapor measurement. This alternate approach entails acquiring sequential atmospheric profiles using the lidar while scanning the channel passband across portions of the Raman water vapor Q-branch. This scanning is accomplished either by tilt-tuning an interference filter or by scanning the output of a spectrometer. Through this process a peak in the transmitted intensity can be discerned in a manner that defines the spectral location of the channel passband with respect to the laser output wavelength to much higher accuracy than that achieved with standard laboratory techniques. Given the peak of the water vapor signal intensity curve, determined using the techniques described here, and an approximate knowledge of atmospheric temperature, the temperature dependence of a given Raman lidar profile can be determined with accuracy of 0.5% or better. A Mathematica notebook that demonstrates the calculations used here is available from the lead author.

Raman lidar↗
NASA NTRS2019

Exploring Oxidation in the Remote Free Troposphere: Insights From Atmospheric Tomography (ATom)

Earth's atmosphere oxidizes the greenhouse gas methane and other gases, thus determining their lifetimes and oxidation products. Much of this oxidation occurs in the remote, relatively clean free troposphere above the planetary boundary layer, where the oxidation chemistry is thought to be much simpler and better understood than it is in urban regions or forests. The NASA airborne Atmospheric Tomography study (ATom) was designed to produce cross sections of the detailed atmospheric composition in the remote atmosphere over the Pacific and Atlantic Oceans during four seasons. As part of the extensive ATom data set, measurements of the atmosphere's primary oxidant, hydroxyl (OH), and hydroperoxyl (HO2) are compared to a photochemical box model to test the oxidation chemistry. Generally, observed and modeled median OH and HO2 agree to within combined uncertainties at the 2σ confidence level, which is ~±40%. For some seasons, this agreement is within ~±20% below 6-km altitude. While this test finds no significant differences, OH observations increasingly exceeded modeled values at altitudes above 8 km, becoming ~35% greater, which is near the combined uncertainties. Measurement uncertainty and possible unknown measurement errors complicate tests for unknown chemistry or incorrect reaction rate coefficients that would substantially affect the OH and HO2 abundances. Future analysis of detailed comparisons may yield additional discrepancies that are masked in the median values.

atmosphere's primary oxidant, hydroxyl (OH), and h↗
NASA NTRS2011

Assessment of Radiative Heating Uncertainty for Hyperbolic Earth Entry

This paper investigates the shock-layer radiative heating uncertainty for hyperbolic Earth entry, with the main focus being a Mars return. In Part I of this work, a baseline simulation approach involving the LAURA Navier-Stokes code with coupled ablation and radiation is presented, with the HARA radiation code being used for the radiation predictions. Flight cases representative of peak-heating Mars or asteroid return are de ned and the strong influence of coupled ablation and radiation on their aerothermodynamic environments are shown. Structural uncertainties inherent in the baseline simulations are identified, with turbulence modeling, precursor absorption, grid convergence, and radiation transport uncertainties combining for a +34% and ..24% structural uncertainty on the radiative heating. A parametric uncertainty analysis, which assumes interval uncertainties, is presented. This analysis accounts for uncertainties in the radiation models as well as heat of formation uncertainties in the flow field model. Discussions and references are provided to support the uncertainty range chosen for each parameter. A parametric uncertainty of +47.3% and -28.3% is computed for the stagnation-point radiative heating for the 15 km/s Mars-return case. A breakdown of the largest individual uncertainty contributors is presented, which includes C3 Swings cross-section, photoionization edge shift, and Opacity Project atomic lines. Combining the structural and parametric uncertainty components results in a total uncertainty of +81.3% and ..52.3% for the Mars-return case. In Part II, the computational technique and uncertainty analysis presented in Part I are applied to 1960s era shock-tube and constricted-arc experimental cases. It is shown that experiments contain shock layer temperatures and radiative ux values relevant to the Mars-return cases of present interest. Comparisons between the predictions and measurements, accounting for the uncertainty in both, are made for a range of experiments. A measure of comparison quality is de ned, which consists of the percent overlap of the predicted uncertainty bar with the corresponding measurement uncertainty bar. For nearly all cases, this percent overlap is greater than zero, and for most of the higher temperature cases (T >13,000 K) it is greater than 50%. These favorable comparisons provide evidence that the baseline computational technique and uncertainty analysis presented in Part I are adequate for Mars-return simulations. In Part III, the computational technique and uncertainty analysis presented in Part I are applied to EAST shock-tube cases. These experimental cases contain wavelength dependent intensity measurements in a wavelength range that covers 60% of the radiative intensity for the 11 km/s, 5 m radius flight case studied in Part I. Comparisons between the predictions and EAST measurements are made for a range of experiments. The uncertainty analysis presented in Part I is applied to each prediction, and comparisons are made using the metrics defined in Part II. The agreement between predictions and measurements is excellent for velocities greater than 10.5 km/s. Both the wavelength dependent and wavelength integrated intensities agree within 30% for nearly all cases considered. This agreement provides confidence in the computational technique and uncertainty analysis presented in Part I, and provides further evidence that this approach is adequate for Mars-return simulations. Part IV of this paper reviews existing experimental data that include the influence of massive ablation on radiative heating. It is concluded that this existing data is not sufficient for the present uncertainty analysis. Experiments to capture the influence of massive ablation on radiation are suggested as future work, along with further studies of the radiative precursor and improvements in the radiation properties of ablation products.

Johnston, Christopher O.↗
NASA NTRS1982

A tutorial assessment of atmospheric height uncertainties for high-precision satellite altimeter missions to monitor ocean currents

Information from a number of sources is synthesized, and an error budget is deduced giving the projected overall height uncertainty correction for a suggested next-generation high-precision radar altimeter. Uncertainties deriving from the wet and dry troposphere, clouds, and the ionosphere are reviewed. It is assumed that the next generation of precision altimeters will be dual-frequency (13.5 and 6 GHz) and will be designed to correct for the ionospheric error. The altimeter-carrying satellite will have a nadir pointing near coincident-beam dual-frequency microwave radiometer for mitigating the wet tropospheric uncertainty. Whereas there are a number of caveats, the combined uncertainty in the height correction due to the atmosphere for the suggested system should be nominally 3 cm rms compared with at least 6 cm associated with the Seasat-A mission. Improvements in height resolution of the kind discussed here are considered vital for future satellite missions designed to monitor ocean currents.

Goldhirsh, J.↗
NASA NTRS2010

Development of an Uncertainty Model for the National Transonic Facility

This paper introduces an uncertainty model being developed for the National Transonic Facility (NTF). The model uses a Monte Carlo technique to propagate standard uncertainties of measured values through the NTF data reduction equations to calculate the combined uncertainties of the key aerodynamic force and moment coefficients and freestream properties. The uncertainty propagation approach to assessing data variability is compared with ongoing data quality assessment activities at the NTF, notably check standard testing using statistical process control (SPC) techniques. It is shown that the two approaches are complementary and both are necessary tools for data quality assessment and improvement activities. The SPC approach is the final arbiter of variability in a facility. Its result encompasses variation due to people, processes, test equipment, and test article. The uncertainty propagation approach is limited mainly to the data reduction process. However, it is useful because it helps to assess the causes of variability seen in the data and consequently provides a basis for improvement. For example, it is shown that Mach number random uncertainty is dominated by static pressure variation over most of the dynamic pressure range tested. However, the random uncertainty in the drag coefficient is generally dominated by axial and normal force uncertainty with much less contribution from freestream conditions.

Walter, Joel A.↗
NASA NTRS2016

On the Calculation of Uncertainty Statistics with Error Bounds for CFD Calculations Containing Random Parameters and Fields

This chapter discusses the ongoing development of combined uncertainty and error bound estimates for computational fluid dynamics (CFD) calculations subject to imposed random parameters and random fields. An objective of this work is the construction of computable error bound formulas for output uncertainty statistics that guide CFD practitioners in systematically determining how accurately CFD realizations should be approximated and how accurately uncertainty statistics should be approximated for output quantities of interest. Formal error bounds formulas for moment statistics that properly account for the presence of numerical errors in CFD calculations and numerical quadrature errors in the calculation of moment statistics have been previously presented in [8]. In this past work, hierarchical node-nested dense and sparse tensor product quadratures are used to calculate moment statistics integrals. In the present work, a framework has been developed that exploits the hierarchical structure of these quadratures in order to simplify the calculation of an estimate of the quadrature error needed in error bound formulas. When signed estimates of realization error are available, this signed error may also be used to estimate output quantity of interest probability densities as a means to assess the impact of realization error on these density estimates. Numerical results are presented for CFD problems with uncertainty to demonstrate the capabilities of this framework.

Uncertainty↗
NASA NTRS1999

SeaWiFS Postlaunch Technical Report Series: The SeaWiFS Solar Radiation-Based Calibration and the Transfer-to-Orbit Experiment - Volume 5

The solar radiation-based calibration (SRBC) of the Sea-viewing Wide Field-of-view Sensor (SeaWiFS) was performed on 1 November 1993. Measurements were made outdoors in the courtyard of the instrument manufacturer. SeaWiFS viewed the solar irradiance reflected from the sensor's diffuser in the same manner as viewed on orbit. The calibration included measurements using a solar radiometer designed to determine the transmittances of principal atmospheric constituents. The primary uncertainties in the outdoor measurements are the transmission of the atmosphere and the reflectance of the diffuser. Their combined uncertainty is about 5 or 6%. The SRBC also requires knowledge of the extraterrestrial solar spectrum. Four solar models are used. When averaged over the responses of the SeaWiFS bands, the irradiance models agree at the 3.6% level, with the greatest difference for SeaWiFS band 8. The calibration coefficients from the SRBC are lower than those from the laboratory calibration of the instrument in 1997. For a representative solar model, the ratios of the SRBC coefficients to laboratory values average 0.962 with a standard deviation of 0.012. The greatest relative difference is 0.946 for band 8. These values are within the estimated uncertainties of the calibration measurements. For the transfer-to-orbit experiment, the measurements in the manufacturer's courtyard are used to predict the digital counts from the instrument on its first day on orbit (August 1, 1997). This experiment requires an estimate of the relative change in the diffuser response for the period between the launch of the instrument and its first solar measurements on orbit (September 9, 1997). In relative terms, the counts from the instrument on its first day on orbit averaged 1.3% higher than predicted, with a standard deviation of 1.2% and a greatest difference of 2.4% or band 7. The estimated uncertainty for the transfer-to-orbit experiment is about 3 or 4%.

Hooker, Stanford B.↗
NASA NTRS2019

Uncertainty Analysis of the CE-22 Advanced Nozzle Test Facility

This paper presents methods and results of a detailed measurement uncertainty analysis that was performed for the Advanced Nozzle Test Facility, CE-22, located at the NASA Glenn Research Center. Results for the uncertainty in thrust and flow coefficients, in addition to other variables of interest, are provided. Results are presented separately as random uncertainty (characterizing errors inherent to instrument or measurement environment, impacting repeatability), systematic uncertainty (capturing inaccuracies due to measurement process, calibration, installation effects or other sources which may introduce bias), and total combined uncertainty. The statistical methods and engineering judgments used to estimate elemental uncertainties are described. The analysis tool MANTUS (Measurement Analysis Tool for Uncertainty in Systems) was used to quantify instrumentation system uncertainty, and statistical analysis and engineering judgment were used to quantify other random and systematic uncertainty sources. The Monte Carlo method was used to propagate systematic and random elemental uncertainties to determine the uncertainties of various calculated variables of interest.

data quality↗
NASA NTRS1992

Rhenium-osmium-isotope constraints on the age of iron meteorites

Rhenium and osmium concentrations and the osmium isotopic compositions of iron meteorites were determined by negative thermal ionization mass spectrometry. Data for the IIA iron meteorites define an isochron with an uncertainty of approximately +/-31 million years for meteorites about 4500 million years old. Although an absolute rhenium-osmium closure age for this iron group cannot be as precisely constrained because of uncertainty in the decay constant of Re-187, an age of 4460 million years ago is the minimum permitted by combined uncertainties. These age constraints imply that the parent body of the IIAB magmatic irons melted and subsequently cooled within 100 million years after the formation of the oldest portions of chondrites. Other iron meteorites plot above the IIA isochron, indicating that the planetary bodies represented by these iron groups may have cooled significantly later than the parent body of the IIA irons.

Horan, M. F.↗
NASA NTRS2023

Uncertainty Analysis of the NASA Glenn 8- by 6-Foot Supersonic Wind Tunnel 2019 Characterization Test 14-Foot, 5.8 Percent Test Section Porosity

This paper presents methods and results of a measurement uncertainty analysis that was performed for the 8- by 6-foot Supersonic Wind Tunnel located at the NASA Glenn Research Center. The uncertainty analysis is based on data collected during a characterization test following major structural modifications to the facility and upgrades to the facility’s data and control systems. The statistical methods and engineering judgments used to estimate elemental uncertainties are described in this report. The Monte Carlo method of propagating uncertainty was selected to determine the uncertainty of calculated variables of interest. A description of the Monte Carlo method as applied for this analysis is provided. The primary variable of interest (VOI) for this facility is free stream Mach number. In addition to determining the uncertainty in Mach number, the uncertainty in free stream values of static pressure, total pressure, dynamic pressure, total temperature, static temperature, Reynolds number, and air speed were also calculated. Uncertainty results are presented as random (unpredictable variation in repeated measurements), systematic (potential offset between observed and true value), and total (random and systematic combined) uncertainty for Mach number. Systematic uncertainty results are presented for the other VOIs. Individual uncertainty sources are presented both dimensionally and as percent contributions to uncertainty in all VOIs, to aid in the identification of primary uncertainty sources.

Uncertainty Analysis↗
NASA NTRS1992

Theoretical study of transition-metal ions bound to benzene

Theoretical binding energies are reported for all first-row and selected second-row transition metal ions (M+) bound to benzene. The calculations employ basis sets of at least double-zeta plus polarization quality and account for electron correlation using the modified coupled-pair functional method. While the bending is predominantly electrostatic, the binding energies are significantly increased by electron correlation, because the donation from the metal d orbitals to the benzene pi* orbitals is not well described at the self-consistent-field level. The uncertainties in the computed binding energies are estimated to be about 5 kcal/mol. Although the calculated and experimental binding energies generally agree to within their combined uncertainties, it is likely that the true binding energies lie in the lower portion of the experimental range. This is supported by the very good agreement between the theoretical and recent experimental binding energies for AgC6H6(+).

Bauschlicher, Charles W., Jr.↗
NASA NTRS1976

A demonstration of a transportable radio interferometric surveying system with 3-cm accuracy on a 307-m base line

A precision geodetic measurement system (Aries, for Astronomical Radio Interferometric Earth Surveying) based on the technique of very long base line interferometry has been designed and implemented through the use of a 9-m transportable antenna and the NASA 64-m antenna of the Deep Space Communications Complex at Goldstone, California. A series of experiments designed to demonstrate the inherent accuracy of a transportable interferometer was performed on a 307-m base line during the period from December 1973 to June 1974. This short base line was chosen in order to obtain a comparison with a conventional survey with a few-centimeter accuracy and to minimize Aries errors due to transmission media effects, source locations, and earth orientation parameters. The base-line vector derived from a weighted average of the measurements, representing approximately 24 h of data, possessed a formal uncertainty of about 3 cm in all components. This average interferometry base-line vector was in good agreement with the conventional survey vector within the statistical range allowed by the combined uncertainties (3-4 cm) of the two techniques.

Ong, K. M.↗
NASA NTRS1988

Advanced probabilistic methods for quantifying the effects of various uncertainties in structural response

The effects of actual variations, also called uncertainties, in geometry and material properties on the structural response of a space shuttle main engine turbopump blade are evaluated. A normal distribution was assumed to represent the uncertainties statistically. Uncertainties were assumed to be totally random, partially correlated, and fully correlated. The magnitude of these uncertainties were represented in terms of mean and variance. Blade responses, recorded in terms of displacements, natural frequencies, and maximum stress, was evaluated and plotted in the form of probabilistic distributions under combined uncertainties. These distributions provide an estimate of the range of magnitudes of the response and probability of occurrence of a given response. Most importantly, these distributions provide the information needed to estimate quantitatively the risk in a structural design.

Nagpal, Vinod K.↗
NASA NTRS1996

Validation of UARS Microwave Limb Sounder ClO Measurements

Validation of stratospheric ClO measurements by the Microwave Limb Sounder (MLS) on the Upper Atmosphere Research Satellite (UARS) is described. Credibility of the measurements is established by (1) the consistency of the measured ClO spectral emission line with the retrieved ClO profiles and (2) comparisons of ClO from MLS with that from correlative measurements by balloon-based, ground-based, and aircraft-based instruments. Values of "noise" (random), "scaling" (multiplicative), and "bias" (additive) uncertainties are determined for the Version 3 data, in the first version public release of the known artifacts in these data are identified. Comparisons with correlative measurements indicate agreement to within the combined uncertainties expected for MLS and the other measurements being compared. It is concluded that MLS Version 3 ClO data, with proper consideration of the uncertainties and "quality" parameters produced with these data, can be used for scientific analyses at retrieval surfaces between 46 and 1 hPa (approximately 20-50 km in height). Future work is planned to correct known problems in the data and improve their quality.

Waters, J. W.↗