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Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) Radiation Hazard Scale (Expanded Data Product Feedback Report)

During radiation emergencies, it is important to communicate clearly as radiation risks are often unfamiliar to many members of the general public and emergency responders, including public health workers. To partially address this issue, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) developed the Radiation Hazard Scale to communicate radiation risk to the general public, community leaders, and decision makers. The simple numeric scale does not require a background in radiation physics or health effects and can be used to assist people in understanding their risk and motivate protective action compliance. Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory has assisted the US Department of Energy National Nuclear Security Administration and the CDC in the development of Radiation Hazard Scale data products. This report documents the feedback received from Federal response officials on an expanded data product set. This expanded set accounts for the effects of building protection on radiation exposure and allows for the comparison between different response actions, including sheltering in place, based on the LLNL developed Regional Shelter Analysis methodology.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Nematic cell alignment directs calcium waves in an epithelial monolayer

Tissues rely on supracellular signals to coordinate their cells over a long range. Two such tissuescale cues are calcium waves and patterns of cell-cell alignment or nematic order. During wound healing, for example, calcium waves propagate across a tissue to guide directed cell migration and reepithelialization. Defects in long-range cell-cell alignment, or nematic orientation, can act to localize morphogenetic events in a tissue. Although these two cues have been considered in isolation, we demonstrate a relationship in epithelial tissue between long-range calcium signaling and the cell’s nematic order: The speed of a wound-induced calcium wave depends monotonically on the angle between the wave vector and cell axis, with maximal wave speed occurring perpendicular to the tissue’s orientation. Including anisotropic di↵usive coupling between cells in a canonical reactiondi↵usion model recapitulates our measured calcium wave dynamics. Our model demonstrates how orientation defects can desynchronize information propagation across a tissue. A calcium wave front is bent around nematic defects, therefore cells the same distance from a wound can receive the calcium signal at di↵erent times. Our work elucidates how spatial patterns in global cell alignment can control collective communication via calcium signaling during development, wound healing, and disease.

Winterstrain, Annemarie C. [Brandeis University, W↗

Prevalence and scalable control of localized networks

The ability to control network dynamics is essential for ensuring desirable functionality of many technological, biological, and social systems. Such systems often consist of a large number of network elements, and controlling large-scale networks remains challenging because the computation and communication requirements increase prohibitively fast with network size. Here, we introduce a notion of network locality that can be exploited to make the control of networks scalable, even when the dynamics are nonlinear. We show that network locality is captured by an information metric and is almost universally observed across real and model networks. In localized networks, the optimal control actions and system responses are both shown to be necessarily concentrated in small neighborhoods induced by the information metric. This allows us to develop localized algorithms for determining network controllability and optimizing the placement of driver nodes. This also allows us to develop a localized algorithm for designing local feedback controllers that approach the performance of the corresponding best global controllers, while incurring a computational cost orders-of-magnitude lower. Here, we validate the locality, performance, and efficiency of the algorithms in Kuramoto oscillator networks, as well as three large empirical networks: synchronization dynamics in the Eastern US power grid, epidemic spreading mediated by the global air-transportation network, and Alzheimer’s disease dynamics in a human brain network. Taken together, our results establish that large networks can be controlled with computation and communication costs comparable to those for small networks.

42 ENGINEERING↗

The Ephb2 Receptor Uses Homotypic, Head-to-Tail Interactions within Its Ectodomain as an Autoinhibitory Control Mechanism

The Eph receptor tyrosine kinases and their ephrin ligands direct axon pathfinding and neuronal cell migration, as well as mediate many other cell–cell communication events. Their dysfunctional signaling has been shown to lead to various diseases, including cancer. The Ephs and ephrins both localize to the plasma membrane and, upon cell–cell contact, form extensive signaling assemblies at the contact sites. The Ephs and the ephrins are divided into A and B subclasses based on their sequence conservation and affinities for each other. The molecular details of Eph–ephrin recognition have been previously revealed and it has been documented that ephrin binding induces higher-order Eph assemblies, which are essential for full biological activity, via multiple, distinct Eph–Eph interfaces. One Eph–Eph interface type is characterized by a homotypic, head-to-tail interaction between the ligand-binding and the fibronectin domains of two adjacent Eph molecules. While the previous Eph ectodomain structural studies were focused on A class receptors, we now report the crystal structure of the full ectodomain of EphB2, revealing distinct and unique head-to-tail receptor–receptor interactions. The EphB2 structure and structure-based mutagenesis document that EphB2 uses the head-to-tail interactions as a novel autoinhibitory control mechanism for regulating downstream signaling and that these interactions can be modulated by posttranslational modifications.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Predictive performance of multi-model ensemble forecasts of COVID-19 across European nations

Background: Short-term forecasts of infectious disease burden can contribute to situational awareness and aid capacity planning. Based on best practice in other fields and recent insights in infectious disease epidemiology, one can maximise the predictive performance of such forecasts if multiple models are combined into an ensemble. Here, we report on the performance of ensembles in predicting COVID-19 cases and deaths across Europe between 08 March 2021 and 07 March 2022. Methods: We used open-source tools to develop a public European COVID-19 Forecast Hub. We invited groups globally to contribute weekly forecasts for COVID-19 cases and deaths reported by a standardised source for 32 countries over the next 1–4 weeks. Teams submitted forecasts from March 2021 using standardised quantiles of the predictive distribution. Each week we created an ensemble forecast, where each predictive quantile was calculated as the equally-weighted average (initially the mean and then from 26th July the median) of all individual models’ predictive quantiles. We measured the performance of each model using the relative Weighted Interval Score (WIS), comparing models’ forecast accuracy relative to all other models. We retrospectively explored alternative methods for ensemble forecasts, including weighted averages based on models’ past predictive performance. Results: Over 52 weeks, we collected forecasts from 48 unique models. We evaluated 29 models’ forecast scores in comparison to the ensemble model. We found a weekly ensemble had a consistently strong performance across countries over time. Across all horizons and locations, the ensemble performed better on relative WIS than 83% of participating models’ forecasts of incident cases (with a total N=886 predictions from 23 unique models), and 91% of participating models’ forecasts of deaths (N=763 predictions from 20 models). Across a 1–4 week time horizon, ensemble performance declined with longer forecast periods when forecasting cases, but remained stable over 4 weeks for incident death forecasts. In every forecast across 32 countries, the ensemble outperformed most contributing models when forecasting either cases or deaths, frequently outperforming all of its individual component models. Among several choices of ensemble methods we found that the most influential and best choice was to use a median average of models instead of using the mean, regardless of methods of weighting component forecast models. Conclusions: Our results support the use of combining forecasts from individual models into an ensemble in order to improve predictive performance across epidemiological targets and populations during infectious disease epidemics. Our findings further suggest that median ensemble methods yield better predictive performance more than ones based on means. Our findings also highlight that forecast consumers should place more weight on incident death forecasts than incident case forecasts at forecast horizons greater than 2 weeks. Funding: AA, BH, BL, LWa, MMa, PP, SV funded by National Institutes of Health (NIH) Grant 1R01GM109718, NSF BIG DATA Grant IIS-1633028, NSF Grant No.: OAC-1916805, NSF Expeditions in Computing Grant CCF-1918656, CCF-1917819, NSF RAPID CNS-2028004, NSF RAPID OAC-2027541, US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention 75D30119C05935, a grant from Google, University of Virginia Strategic Investment Fund award number SIF160, Defense Threat Reduction Agency (DTRA) under Contract No. HDTRA1-19-D-0007, and respectively Virginia Dept of Health Grant VDH-21-501-0141, VDH-21-501-0143, VDH-21-501-0147, VDH-21-501-0145, VDH-21-501-0146, VDH-21-501-0142, VDH-21-501-0148. AF, AMa, GL funded by SMIGE - Modelli statistici inferenziali per governare l'epidemia, FISR 2020-Covid-19 I Fase, FISR2020IP-00156, Codice Progetto: PRJ-0695. AM, BK, FD, FR, JK, JN, JZ, KN, MG, MR, MS, RB funded by Ministry of Science and Higher Education of Poland with grant 28/WFSN/2021 to the University of Warsaw. BRe, CPe, JLAz funded by Ministerio de Sanidad/ISCIII. BT, PG funded by PERISCOPE European H2020 project, contract number 101016233. CP, DL, EA, MC, SA funded by European Commission - Directorate-General for Communications Networks, Content and Technology through the contract LC-01485746, and Ministerio de Ciencia, Innovacion y Universidades and FEDER, with the project PGC2018-095456-B-I00. DE., MGu funded by Spanish Ministry of Health / REACT-UE (FEDER). DO, GF, IMi, LC funded by Laboratory Directed Research and Development program of Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL) under project number 20200700ER. DS, ELR, GG, NGR, NW, YW funded by National Institutes of General Medical Sciences (R35GM119582; the content is solely the responsibility of the authors and does not necessarily represent the official views of NIGMS or the National Institutes of Health). FB, FP funded by InPresa, Lombardy Region, Italy. HG, KS funded by European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control. IV funded by Agencia de Qualitat i Avaluacio Sanitaries de Catalunya (AQuAS) through contract 2021-021OE. JDe, SMo, VP funded by Netzwerk Universitatsmedizin (NUM) project egePan (01KX2021). JPB, SH, TH funded by Federal Ministry of Education and Research (BMBF; grant 05M18SIA). KH, MSc, YKh funded by Project SaxoCOV, funded by the German Free State of Saxony. Presentation of data, model results and simulations also funded by the NFDI4Health Task Force COVID-19 ( https://www.nfdi4health.de/task-force-covid-19-2 ) within the framework of a DFG-project (LO-342/17-1). LP, VE funded by Mathematical and Statistical modelling project (MUNI/A/1615/2020), Online platform for real-time monitoring, analysis and management of epidemic situations (MUNI/11/02202001/2020); VE also supported by RECETOX research infrastructure (Ministry of Education, Youth and Sports of the Czech Republic: LM2018121), the CETOCOEN EXCELLENCE (CZ.02.1.01/0.0/0.0/17-043/0009632), RECETOX RI project (CZ.02.1.01/0.0/0.0/16-013/0001761). NIB funded by Health Protection Research Unit (grant code NIHR200908). SAb, SF funded by Wellcome Trust (210758/Z/18/Z).

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

Zinc: From Biological Functions to Therapeutic Potential

The trace element zinc (Zn) displays a wide range of biological functions. Zn ions control intercellular communication and intracellular events that maintain normal physiological processes. These effects are achieved through the modulation of several Zn-dependent proteins, including transcription factors and enzymes of key cell signaling pathways, namely those involved in proliferation, apoptosis, and antioxidant defenses. Efficient homeostatic systems carefully regulate intracellular Zn concentrations. However, perturbed Zn homeostasis has been implicated in the pathogenesis of several chronic human diseases, such as cancer, diabetes, depression, Wilson’s disease, Alzheimer’s disease, and other age-related diseases. This review focuses on Zn’s roles in cell proliferation, survival/death, and DNA repair mechanisms, outlines some biological Zn targets, and addresses the therapeutic potential of Zn supplementation in some human diseases.

Costa, Maria Inês↗

Argonaute and Dicer are essential for communication between Trichoderma atroviride and fungal hosts during mycoparasitism

ABSTRACT Trichoderma species are known for their mycoparasitic activity against phytopathogenic fungi that cause significant economic losses in agriculture. During mycoparasitism, Trichoderma spp. recognize molecules produced by the host fungus and release secondary metabolites and hydrolytic enzymes to kill and degrade the host’s cell wall. Here, we explored the participation of the Trichoderma atroviride RNAi machinery in the interaction with six phytopathogenic fungi of economic importance. We determined that both Argonaute-3 and Dicer-2 play an essential role during mycoparasitism. Using an RNA-Seq approach, we identified that perception, detox, and cell wall degradation depend on the T. atroviride -RNAi when interacting with Alternaria alternata, Rhizoctonia solani AG2 , and R. solani AG5. Furthermore, we constructed a gene co-expression network that provides evidence of two gene modules regulated by RNAi, which play crucial roles in essential processes during mycoparasitism. In addition, based on small RNA-seq, we conclude that siRNAs regulate amino acid and carbon metabolism and communication during the Trichoderma -host interaction. Interestingly, our data suggest that siRNAs might regulate allorecognition ( het ) and transport genes in a cross-species manner. Thus, these results reveal a fine-tuned regulation in T. atroviride dependent on siRNAs that is essential during the biocontrol of phytopathogenic fungi, showing a greater complexity of this process than previously established. IMPORTANCE There is an increasing need for plant disease control without chemical pesticides to avoid environmental pollution and resistance, and the health risks associated with the application of pesticides are increasing. Employing Trichoderma species in agriculture to control fungal diseases is an alternative plant protection strategy that overcomes these issues without utilizing chemical fungicides. Therefore, understanding the biocontrol mechanisms used by Trichoderma species to antagonize other fungi is critical. Although there has been extensive research about the mechanisms involved in the mycoparasitic capability of Trichoderma species, there are still unsolved questions related to how Trichoderma regulates recognition, attack, and defense mechanisms during interaction with a fungal host. In this work, we report that the Argonaute and Dicer components of the RNAi machinery and the small RNAs they process are essential for gene regulation during mycoparasitism by Trichoderma atroviride .

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

The United States COVID-19 Forecast Hub dataset

Academic researchers, government agencies, industry groups, and individuals have produced forecasts at an unprecedented scale during the COVID-19 pandemic. To leverage these forecasts, the United States Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) partnered with an academic research lab at the University of Massachusetts Amherst to create the US COVID-19 Forecast Hub. Launched in April 2020, the Forecast Hub is a dataset with point and probabilistic forecasts of incident cases, incident hospitalizations, incident deaths, and cumulative deaths due to COVID-19 at county, state, and national, levels in the United States. Included forecasts represent a variety of modeling approaches, data sources, and assumptions regarding the spread of COVID-19. The goal of this dataset is to establish a standardized and comparable set of short-term forecasts from modeling teams. These data can be used to develop ensemble models, communicate forecasts to the public, create visualizations, compare models, and inform policies regarding COVID-19 mitigation. These open-source data are available via download from GitHub, through an online API, and through R packages.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

A change language for ontologies and knowledge graphs

Ontologies and knowledge graphs (KGs) are general-purpose computable representations of some domain, such as human anatomy, and are frequently a crucial part of modern information systems. Most of these structures change over time, incorporating new knowledge or information that was previously missing. Managing these changes is a challenge, both in terms of communicating changes to users and providing mechanisms to make it easier for multiple stakeholders to contribute. To fill that need, we have created KGCL, the Knowledge Graph Change Language (https://github.com/INCATools/kgcl), a standard data model for describing changes to KGs and ontologies at a high level, and an accompanying human-readable Controlled Natural Language (CNL). This language serves two purposes: a curator can use it to request desired changes, and it can also be used to describe changes that have already happened, corresponding to the concepts of “apply patch” and “diff” commonly used for managing changes in text documents and computer programs. Another key feature of KGCL is that descriptions are at a high enough level to be useful and understood by a variety of stakeholders—e.g. ontology edits can be specified by commands like “add synonym ‘arm’ to ‘forelimb’” or “move ‘Parkinson disease’ under ‘neurodegenerative disease’.” We have also built a suite of tools for managing ontology changes. These include an automated agent that integrates with and monitors GitHub ontology repositories and applies any requested changes and a new component in the BioPortal ontology resource that allows users to make change requests directly from within the BioPortal user interface. Overall, the KGCL data model, its CNL, and associated tooling allow for easier management and processing of changes associated with the development of ontologies and KGs.

96 KNOWLEDGE MANAGEMENT AND PRESERVATION↗