Search NASA⌕ Search

SEARCH · Search NASA

Results for “Community Earth System Model version 2”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 19 records
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2024

Clusters of Regional Precipitation Seasonality Change in the Community Earth System Model, Version 2

Abstract The likely changes to precipitation seasonality with warming are both impactful and not well understood. This work aims to describe areas that experience similar changes to seasonal precipitation irrespective of the original underlying precipitation seasonality. We train a self-organizing map on the difference between the seasonal cycle of precipitation in the past and in a high-warming future climate as represented by the Community Earth System Model, version 2, to create regions with similar changes in precipitation seasonality. This method is applied separately over land and ocean surfaces because of the differing processes leading to precipitation over each. This method indicates that future changes in seasonal precipitation are most varied in the tropics because of a southward shift in the intertropical convergence zone. The seasonal shifts found over midlatitude oceans indicate a poleward shift in atmospheric river activity. We find a correspondence between certain land-based precipitation changes and Köppen climate classification. The seasonality of large-scale and convective precipitation is examined for each region. The relationship between the seasonal changes to precipitation and associated atmospheric processes is discussed. These processes include atmospheric rivers, the intertropical convergence zone, tropical cyclones, and monsoons.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Assessing the Atmospheric Response to Subgrid Surface Heterogeneity in the Single-Column Community Earth System Model, Version 2 (CESM2)

Land-atmosphere interactions are central to the evolution of the atmospheric boundary layer and the subsequent formation of clouds and precipitation. Existing global climate models represent these connections with bulk approximations on coarse spatial scales, but observations suggest that small-scale variations in surface characteristics and co-located turbulent and momentum fluxes can significantly impact the atmosphere. Recent model development efforts have attempted to capture this phenomenon by coupling existing representations of subgrid-scale (SGS) heterogeneity between land and atmosphere models. Such approaches are in their infancy and it is not yet clear if they can produce a realistic atmospheric response to surface heterogeneity. Here, we implement a parameterization to capture the effects of SGS heterogeneity in the Community Earth System Model (CESM2), and compare single-column simulations against high-resolution Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) large-eddy simulations (LESs), which we use as a proxy for observations. The CESM2 experiments increase the temperature and humidity variances in the lowest atmospheric levels, but the response is weaker than in WRF-LES. In part, this is attributed to an underestimate of surface heterogeneity in the land model due to a lack of SGS meteorology, a separation between deep and shallow convection schemes in the atmosphere, and a lack of explicitly represented mesoscale secondary circulations. These results highlight the complex processes involved in capturing the effects of SGS heterogeneity and suggest the need for parameterizations that communicate their influence not only at the surface but also vertically.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2026

Modeling Large Dust Aerosols in the Community Earth System Model Version 2 (CESM2)

Dust aerosols have a wide size distribution from less than 0.1 to over 100 μm and dominate Earth's atmospheric aerosol mass. However, most Earth system models (ESMs) inadequately represent dust aerosols larger than 10 μm in diameter, limiting the accuracy of the simulated dust cycle and climate impacts. Here, we introduce a new modeling framework that captures the full observed size distribution of dust aerosols, incorporating recent advances into a mineral-resolved version of the Community ESM, while addressing known issues in previous versions. Comprehensive evaluation against diverse observations of bulk dust and component minerals demonstrates that the model reproduces the observed dust cycle across particle sizes. Incorporating the previously unrepresented large-dust fractions substantially alters dust budget estimates, highlighting potential changes in simulated climate impacts and underscoring the importance of comprehensive size-resolved dust modeling. Despite these advancements, uncertainties persist. Our results indicate that a size-dependent reduction in settling velocity is required to reproduce the observed dust size distribution downwind of source regions. Specifically, in the new model, the gravitational settling velocity of dust particles larger than 10 μm in diameter must be reduced by as much as 85% to achieve agreement with observations. This empirical reduction serves as a constraint on physics-based models of dust settling. Future developments should address misrepresented physical processes that hinder accurate modeling of the large dust aerosol transport. Expanding observational data sets covering the full-size distribution is also essential to better constrain the dust cycle and improve the representation of dust optical properties and climate effects.

Li, Longlei [Cornell Univ., Ithaca, NY (United Sta↗
NASA NTRS2026

Modeling Large Dust Aerosols in the Community Earth System Model Version 2 (CESM2)

Dust aerosols have a wide size distribution from less than 0.1 to over 100 μm and dominate Earth's atmospheric aerosol mass. However, most Earth system models (ESMs) inadequately represent dust aerosols larger than 10 μm in diameter, limiting the accuracy of the simulated dust cycle and climate impacts. Here, we introduce a new modeling framework that captures the full observed size distribution of dust aerosols, incorporating recent advances into a mineral-resolved version of the Community ESM, while addressing known issues in previous versions. Comprehensive evaluation against diverse observations of bulk dust and component minerals demonstrates that the model reproduces the observed dust cycle across particle sizes. Incorporating the previously unrepresented large-dust fractions substantially alters dust budget estimates, highlighting potential changes in simulated climate impacts and underscoring the importance of comprehensive size-resolved dust modeling. Despite these advancements, uncertainties persist. Our results indicate that a size-dependent reduction in settling velocity is required to reproduce the observed dust size distribution downwind of source regions. Specifically, in the new model, the gravitational settling velocity of dust particles larger than 10 μm in diameter must be reduced by as much as 85% to achieve agreement with observations. This empirical reduction serves as a constraint on physics-based models of dust settling. Future developments should address misrepresented physical processes that hinder accurate modeling of the large dust aerosol transport. Expanding observational data sets covering the full-size distribution is also essential to better constrain the dust cycle and improve the representation of dust optical properties and climate effects.

mineral dust↗
DOE OSTI2025

Observationally constrained analysis on the distribution of fine- and coarse-mode nitrate in global models

Nitrate plays an important role in the Earth system and air quality. A key challenge in simulating the life cycle of nitrate aerosol in global models is to accurately represent mass size distribution of nitrate aerosol. In this study, we evaluate the performance of the Energy Exascale Earth System Model version 2 (E3SMv2) and the Community Earth System Model version 2 (CESM2), along with Aerosol Comparisons between Observations and Models (AeroCom) phase III models, in simulating spatial distribution of fine-mode nitrate, the mass size distribution of fine- and coarse-mode nitrate, and the gas–aerosol partitioning between nitric acid gas and nitrate, using long-term ground-based observations and measurements from multiple aircraft campaigns. We find that most models underestimate the annual mean PM 2.5 (particulate matter with diameter less than 2.5 µm) nitrate surface concentration averaged over all sites. The observed nitrate PM 2.5 / PM 10 and PM 1 / PM 4 ratios are influenced by the relative contribution of fine sulfate or organic particles and coarse dust or sea salt particles. Overall, the ground-based observations give an annual mean surface nitrate PM 2.5 / PM 10 ratio of 0.7. Most models underestimate the annual mean PM 2.5 / PM 10 ratio in all regions. There are large spreads in the modeled nitrate PM 1 / PM 4 ratios, which span the full range from 0 to 1. Most models underestimate the surface molar ratio of nitrate to total inorganic nitrate averaged across all sites. Our study indicates the importance of gas–aerosol partition parameterization and the simulation of dust and sea salt in correctly simulating the mass size distribution of nitrate.

Nitrate↗
DOE OSTI2024

Validating a microphysical prognostic stratospheric aerosol implementation in E3SMv2 using observations after the Mount Pinatubo eruption

Abstract. This paper describes the addition of a stratospheric prognostic aerosol (SPA) capability – developed with the goal of accurately simulating sulfate aerosol formation and evolution in the stratosphere – in the Department of Energy (DOE) Energy Exascale Earth System Model, version 2 (E3SMv2). The implementation includes changes to the four-mode Modal Aerosol Module microphysics in the stratosphere to allow for larger particle growth and more accurate stratospheric aerosol lifetime following the Pinatubo eruption. E3SMv2-SPA reasonably reproduces stratospheric aerosol lifetime, burden, aerosol optical depth, and top-of-atmosphere flux when compared to remote sensing observations. E3SMv2-SPA also has close agreement with the interactive chemistry–climate model CESM2-WACCM (Community Earth System Model version 2–Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model) – which has a more complete chemical treatment – and the observationally constrained, prescribed volcanic aerosol treatment in E3SMv2. Global stratospheric aerosol size distributions identify the nucleation and growth of sulfate aerosol from volcanically injected SO2 from both major and minor volcanic eruptions from 1991 to 1993. The modeled aerosol effective radius is consistently lower than satellite and in situ measurements (max differences of ∼ 30 %). Comparisons with in situ size distribution samples indicate that this simulated underestimation in both E3SMv2-SPA and CESM2-WACCM is due to overly small accumulation and coarse-mode aerosols 6–18 months post-eruption, with E3SMv2-SPA simulating ∼ 50 % of the coarse-mode geometric mean diameters of observations 11 months post-eruption. Effective radii from the models and observations are used to calculate offline scattering and absorption efficiencies to explore the implications of smaller simulated aerosol size for the Pinatubo climate impacts. Scattering efficiencies at wavelengths of peak solar irradiance (∼ 0.5 µm) are 10 %–80 % higher for daily samples in models relative to observations through 1993, suggesting higher diffuse radiation at the surface and a larger cooling effect in the models due to the smaller simulated aerosol; absorption efficiencies at the peak wavelengths of outgoing terrestrial radiation (∼ 10 µm) are 15 %–40 % lower for daily samples in models relative to observations, suggesting an underestimation in stratospheric heating in the models due to the smaller simulated aerosol. These potential biases are based on aerosol size alone and do not take into account differences in the aerosol number. The overall agreement of E3SMv2-SPA with observations and its similar performance to the well-validated CESM2-WACCM makes E3SMv2-SPA a viable alternative to simulating climate impacts from stratospheric sulfate aerosols.

Brown, Hunter York (ORCID:0000000218147874)↗
NASA NTRS2024

An Extensible Perturbed Parameter Ensemble for the Community Atmosphere Model Version 6

This paper documents the methodology and preliminary results from a Perturbed Parameter Ensemble (PPE) technique, where multiple parameters are varied simultaneously and the parameter values are determined with Latin hypercube sampling. This is done with the Community Atmosphere Model version 6 (CAM6), the atmospheric component of the Community Earth System Model version 2 (CESM2). We apply the PPE method to CESM2-CAM6 to understand climate sensitivity to atmospheric physics parameters. The initial simulations vary 45 parameters in the microphysics, convection, turbulence and aerosol schemes with 263 ensemble members. These atmospheric parameters are typically the most uncertain in many climate models. Control simulations are analyzed and targeted simulations to understand climate forcing due to aerosols and fast climate feedbacks. The use of various emulators is explored in the multi- dimensional space mapping input parameters to output metrics. Parameter impacts on various model outputs, such as radiation, cloud and aerosol properties are evaluated. Machine learning is also used to probe optimal parameter values against observations. Our findings show that using PPE is a valuable tool for climate uncertainty analysis. Furthermore, by varying many parameters simultaneously, we find that many different combinations of parameter values can produce results consistent with observations, and thus careful analysis of tuning is important. The CESM2-CAM6 PPE is publicly available, and extensible to other configurations to address questions of other model processes in the atmosphere and other model components (e.g. coupling to the land surface).

Machine learning↗
NASA NTRS2022

LGM Paleoclimate Constraints Inform Cloud Parameterizations and Equilibrium Climate Sensitivity in CESM2

The Community Earth System Model version 2 (CESM2) simulates a high equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS > 5°C) and a Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) that is substantially colder than proxy temperatures. In this study, we examine the role of cloud parameterizations in simulating the LGM cooling in CESM2. Through substituting different versions of cloud schemes in the atmosphere model, we attribute the excessive LGM cooling to the new CESM2 schemes of cloud microphysics and ice nucleation. Further exploration suggests that removing an inappropriate limiter on cloud ice number (NoNimax) and decreasing the time-step size (substepping) in cloud microphysics largely eliminate the excessive LGM cooling. NoNimax produces a more physically consistent treatment of mixed-phase clouds, which leads to an increase in cloud ice content and a weaker shortwave cloud feedback over mid-to-high latitudes and the Southern Hemisphere subtropics. Microphysical substepping further weakens the shortwave cloud feedback. Based on NoNimax and microphysical substepping, we have developed a paleoclimate-calibrated CESM2 (PaleoCalibr), which simulates well the observed twentieth century warming and spatial characteristics of key cloud and climate variables. PaleoCalibr has a lower ECS (∼4°C) and a 20% weaker aerosol-cloud interaction than CESM2. PaleoCalibr represents a physically more consistent treatment of cloud microphysics than CESM2 and is a valuable tool in climate change studies, especially when a large climate forcing is involved. Our study highlights the unique value of paleoclimate constraints in informing the cloud parameterizations and ultimately the future climate projection.

equilibrium climate sensitivity↗
DOE OSTI2024

Modes of Variability in E3SM and CESM Large Ensembles

An adequate characterization of internal modes of climate variability (MoV) is a prerequisite for both accurate seasonal predictions and climate change detection and attribution. Assessing the fidelity of climate models in simulating MoV is therefore essential; however, doing so is complicated by the large intrinsic variations in MoV and the limited span of the observational record. Large ensembles (LEs) provide a unique opportunity to assess model fidelity in simulating MoV and quantify intermodel contrasts. Here, in this work, these goals are pursued in four recently produced LEs: the Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM) versions 1 and 2 LEs, and the Community Earth System Model (CESM) versions 1 and 2 LEs. In general, the representation of global coupled modes is found to improve across successive E3SM and CESM versions in conjunction with the fidelity of the base state climate while the patterns of extratropical modes are well simulated across the ensembles. Various persistent shortcomings for all MoV are however identified and discussed. The results both demonstrate the successes of these recent model versions and suggest the potential for continued improvement in the representation of MoV with advances in model physics.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS2021

Harmonized Emissions Component (HEMCO) 3.0 as a Versatile Emissions Component for Atmospheric Models: Application in the GEOS-Chem, NASA GEOS, WRF-GC, CESM2, NOAA GEFS-Aerosol, and NOAA UFS Models

Emissions are a central component of atmospheric chemistry models. The Harmonized Emissions Component (HEMCO) is a software component for computing emissions from a user-selected ensemble of emission inventories and algorithms. It allows users to re-grid, combine, overwrite, subset, and scale emissions from different inventories through a configuration file and with no change to the model source code. The configuration file also maps emissions to model species with appropriate units. HEMCO can operate in offline stand-alone mode, but more importantly it provides an online facility for models to compute emissions at runtime. HEMCO complies with the Earth System Modeling Framework (ESMF) for portability across models. We present a new version here, HEMCO 3.0, that features an improved three-layer architecture to facilitate implementation into any atmospheric model and improved capability for calculating emissions at any model resolution including multiscale and unstructured grids. The three-layer architecture of HEMCO 3.0 includes (1) the Data Input Layer that reads the configuration file and accesses the HEMCO library of emission inventories and other environmental data, (2) the HEMCO Core that computes emissions on the user-selected HEMCO grid, and (3) the Model Interface Layer that re-grids (if needed) and serves the data to the atmospheric model and also serves model data to the HEMCO Core for computing emissions dependent on model state (such as from dust or vegetation). The HEMCO Core is common to the implementation in all models, while the Data Input Layer and the Model Interface Layer are adaptable to the model environment. Default versions of the Data Input Layer and Model Interface Layer enable straightforward implementation of HEMCO in any simple model architecture, and options are available to disable features such as re-gridding that may be done by independent couplers in more complex architectures. The HEMCO library of emission inventories and algorithms is continuously enriched through user contributions so that new inventories can be immediately shared across models. HEMCO can also serve as a general data broker for models to process input data not only for emissions but for any gridded environmental datasets. We describe existing implementations of HEMCO 3.0 in (1) the GEOS-Chem “Classic” chemical transport model with shared-memory infrastructure, (2) the high-performance GEOS-Chem (GCHP) model with distributed-memory architecture, (3) the NASA GEOS Earth System Model (GEOS ESM), (4) the Weather Research and Forecasting model with GEOS-Chem (WRF-GC), (5) the Community Earth System Model Version 2 (CESM2), and (6) the NOAA Global Ensemble Forecast System – Aerosols (GEFS-Aerosols), as well as the planned implementation in the NOAA Unified Forecast System (UFS). Implementation of HEMCO in CESM2 contributes to the Multi-Scale Infrastructure for Chemistry and Aerosols (MUSICA) by providing a common emissions infrastructure to support different simulations of atmospheric chemistry across scales.

Haipeng Lin↗
DOE OSTI2023

Projections of winter polynyas and their biophysical impacts in the Ross Sea Antarctica

Abstract This study investigates winter polynyas in the southern Ross Sea, Antarctica where several polynyas are known to form. Coastal polynyas are areas of lower sea ice concentration and/or thickness along the coast that are otherwise surrounded by more extensive, thicker sea ice pack. Polynyas are also locations where organisms can exploit both the ice substrate and pelagic resources. Using a self organizing map algorithm, we identify polynya events in the Community Earth System Model Version 2 Large Ensemble (CESM2-LE). The neural network algorithm is able to identify polynya events without imposing an ice concentration or thickness threshold, as is often done when identifying polynyas. The CESM2-LE produces a wintertime polynya feature comparable in size and location to the Ross Sea polynya, and during polynya events there are large turbulent heat fluxes and export of sea ice from the Ross Sea. In the CESM2-LE polynya event frequency is projected to decrease sharply in the later twentyfirst century, leading to increasing sea ice concentrations and thicknesses in the region. The drivers of the polynya frequency decline are likely both large scale circulation changes and local atmosphere and ocean feedbacks. If declines in wintertime polynya frequency over the twentyfirst century do occur they may impact Antarctic Bottom Water formation and local net primary productivity. Thus, better understanding potential local and unexpected sea ice changes in the Ross Sea is important for both assessing climate system impacts and ecological impacts on the Ross Sea ecosystem, which is currently protected by an internationally recognized marine protected area.

Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences↗
DOE OSTI2023

Antarctic Ice Sheet Freshwater Discharge Drives Substantial Southern Ocean Changes Over the 21st Century

Multidecadal satellite observations indicate that the Antarctic Ice Sheet (AIS) is losing mass at an accelerating rate, which has the potential to impact many aspects of the climate system. While previous studies demonstrated the importance of AIS freshwater (FW) discharge for regional and global climate processes using climate model experiments, many have applied unrealistic FW forcings. Here, we explore potential Southern Ocean (SO) impacts of realistic AIS mass loss over the 21st century in the Community Earth System Model version 2 by applying observation-based historical and ice sheet model-based future AIS FW forcing. The added FW reduces wintertime deep convective area by 72% while retaining 83% more sea ice. Congruent with other studies, we find the increased FW discharge extensively impacts local and remote SO surface and subsurface temperature and stratification. These results demonstrate the necessity of accounting for AIS mass loss in global climate models for projecting future climate.

Geology↗
DOE OSTI2023

Anthropogenic Aerosols Contribute to the Recent Decline in Precipitation Over the U.S. Southwest

Abstract The winter‐spring precipitation over the Southwestern United States (SWUS) decreased since 1980. It is frequently attributed to Pacific internal decadal variability, but recent studies found anthropogenic aerosols (AA) can also induce a transition to a negative Pacific Decadal Variability (PDV) phase. We revisit the attribution of SWUS drying by quantifying the contributions of anthropogenically forced decadal Pacific Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs). Applying a low‐frequency component analysis to observations, Community Earth System Model version 2 (CESM2) all‐forcings and single‐forcing large ensembles, we find up to 42% of the observed precipitation trend to be related to the AA‐induced negative PDV‐like pattern, which is driven by the emission shift from the Western to the Eastern Hemisphere. In CESM2, other radiative forcings counteract the influence of AA, but it remains unclear whether the model correctly simulates this balance. This implies that the near‐future trajectories of these forcings, in particular Asian aerosols, are important for projections of SWUS precipitation.

Geology↗
DOE OSTI2023

Investigating Future Arctic Sea Ice Loss and Near–Surface Wind Speed Changes Related to Surface Roughness Using the Community Earth System Model

The Arctic is undergoing a pronounced and rapid transformation in response to changing greenhouse gasses, including reduction in sea ice extent and thickness. There are also projected increases in near-surface Arctic wind. This study addresses how the winds trends may be driven by changing surface roughness and/or stability in different Arctic regions and seasons, something that has not yet been thoroughly investigated. We analyze 50 experiments from the Community Earth System Model Version 2 (CESM2) Large Ensemble and five experiments using CESM2 with an artificially decreased sea ice roughness to match that of the open ocean. We find that with a smoother surface there are higher mean wind speeds and slower mean ice speeds in the autumn, winter, and spring. The artificially reduced surface roughness also strongly impacts the wind speed trends in autumn and winter, and we find that atmospheric stability changes are also important contributors to driving wind trends in both experiments. In contrast to the clear impacts on winds, the sea ice mean state and trends are statistically indistinguishable, suggesting that near-surface winds are not major drivers of Arctic sea ice loss. Two major results of this work are: (a) the near-surface wind trends are driven by changes in both surface roughness and near-surface atmospheric stability that are themselves changing from sea ice loss, and (b) the sea ice mean state and trends are driven by the overall warming trend due to increasing greenhouse gas emissions and not significantly impacted by coupled feedbacks with the surface winds.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Sensitivity of Arctic Surface Temperature to Including a Comprehensive Ocean Interior Reflectance to the Ocean Surface Albedo Within the Fully Coupled CESM2

Abstract Almost all current climate models simplify the ocean surface albedo (OSA) by assuming the reflected solar energy without the ocean interior contribution. In this study, an improved ocean surface albedo scheme is incorporated into the Community Earth System Model version 2 (CESM2) to assess the sensitivity of Arctic surface temperature to including ocean interior reflectance to the OSA. Fully coupled CESM2 simulations with and without ocean interior reflectance are subsequently performed, we focus on the analysis of Arctic surface temperature responses. Incorporating ocean interior reflectance increases absorbed solar radiation and warms the ocean, enhancing seasonal heat storage and release across the Arctic Ocean, and increasing sea ice reduction and positive climate feedbacks that elevates Arctic surface temperature. Seasonal variations in air‐surface temperature differences induce changes in turbulent heat flux patterns, concurrently modifying dynamic advection and moisture processes that affect boundary layer humidity and low clouds, especially in winter. Based on partitioning physical processes in the thermodynamic energy equation, surface air warming is induced primarily through positive heating anomalies of vertical advection, latent heat release, and longwave radiative forcing. Through an examination of the surface energy budget, skin temperature warming is driven predominantly by increased downward longwave radiation, positive surface albedo feedback in summer, and increased conductive heat transport from the ocean particularly in winter. Significant effects of ocean interior reflectance on the Arctic Ocean, including sea surface warming and sea ice reduction, justify the importance of ocean interior reflectance in climate models for better understanding of ongoing Arctic climate changes.

Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences↗
DOE OSTI2024

Land Processes Can Substantially Impact the Mean Climate State

Terrestrial processes influence the atmosphere by controlling land-to-atmosphere fluxes of energy, water, and carbon. Prior research has demonstrated that parameter uncertainty drives uncertainty in land surface fluxes. However, the influence of land process uncertainty on the climate system remains underexplored. Here, we quantify how assumptions about land processes impact climate using a perturbed parameter ensemble for 18 land parameters in the Community Earth System Model version 2 under preindustrial conditions. We find that an observationally-informed range of land parameters generate biogeophysical feedbacks that significantly influence the mean climate state, largely by modifying evapotranspiration. Global mean land surface temperature ranges by 2.2°C across our ensemble (σ = 0.5°C) and precipitation changes were significant and spatially variable. Our analysis demonstrates that the impacts of land parameter uncertainty on surface fluxes propagate to the entire Earth system, and provides insights into where and how land process uncertainty influences climate.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Exploring the Relative Importance of the MJO and ENSO to North Pacific Subseasonal Predictability

Abstract Here we explore the relative contribution of the Madden‐Julian Oscillation (MJO) and El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) to midlatitude subseasonal predictive skill of upper atmospheric circulation over the North Pacific, using an inherently interpretable neural network applied to pre‐industrial control runs of the Community Earth System Model version 2. We find that this interpretable network generally favors the state of ENSO, rather than the MJO, to make correct predictions on a range of subseasonal lead times and predictand averaging windows. Moreover, the predictability of positive circulation anomalies over the North Pacific is comparatively lower than that of their negative counterparts, especially evident when the ENSO state is important. However, when ENSO is in a neutral state, our findings indicate that the MJO provides some predictive information, particularly for positive anomalies. We identify three distinct evolutions of these MJO states, offering fresh insights into opportune forecasting windows for MJO teleconnections.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

More Heavy Precipitation in World Urban Regions Captured Through a Two‐Way Subgrid Land‐Atmosphere Coupling Framework in the NCAR CESM2

Abstract Current global climate models (GCMs), limited to grid‐scale land‐atmosphere coupling, cannot represent subgrid urban‐rural precipitation contrasts. This study develops an innovative two‐way subgrid land‐atmosphere coupling framework in the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) Community Earth System Model version 2 (CESM2) to explicitly resolve land‐atmosphere interaction over subgrid individual land units. Results show that urban heat island (UHI) leads to the urban rainfall effect (URE), which in turn alleviates overestimated UHI over China in CESM2. The URE manifests as a shift toward more heavy precipitation and less light precipitation in world urban areas than in surrounding rural counterparts. This feature is consistent with available observations. In heavy precipitation situations, the UHI promotes atmospheric instability and enhances atmospheric water vapor holding capacity, resulting in more heavy precipitation in urban areas. Conversely, in light precipitation situations, the UHI and decreased evaporation from urban impermeable surfaces diminish atmospheric relative humidity, suppressing light precipitation.

Geology↗