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At least 19 records

Improving Project Management with Simulation and Completion Distribution Functions

Despite the critical importance of project completion timeliness, management practices in place today remain inadequate for addressing the persistent problem of project completion tardiness. A major culprit in late projects is uncertainty, which most, if not all, projects are inherently subject to. This uncertainty resides in the estimates for activity durations, the occurrence of unplanned and unforeseen events, and the availability of critical resources. In response to this problem, this research developed a comprehensive simulation based methodology for conducting quantitative project completion time risk analysis. It is called the Project Assessment by Simulation Technique (PAST). This new tool enables project stakeholders to visualize uncertainty or risk, i.e. the likelihood of their project completing late and the magnitude of the lateness, by providing them with a completion time distribution function of their projects. Discrete event simulation is used within PAST to determine the completion distribution function for the project of interest. The simulation is populated with both deterministic and stochastic elements. The deterministic inputs include planned project activities, precedence requirements, and resource requirements. The stochastic inputs include activity duration growth distributions, probabilities for events that can impact the project, and other dynamic constraints that may be placed upon project activities and milestones. These stochastic inputs are based upon past data from similar projects. The time for an entity to complete the simulation network, subject to both the deterministic and stochastic factors, represents the time to complete the project. Repeating the simulation hundreds or thousands of times allows one to create the project completion distribution function. The Project Assessment by Simulation Technique was demonstrated to be effective for the on-going NASA project to assemble the International Space Station. Approximately $500 million per month is being spent on this project, which is scheduled to complete by 2010. NASA project stakeholders participated in determining and managing completion distribution functions produced from PAST. The first result was that project stakeholders improved project completion risk awareness. Secondly, using PAST, mitigation options were analyzed to improve project completion performance and reduce total project cost.

Cates, Grant R.

A Demonstration that Correcting for Completeness and Reliability Is Critical for Robust Occurrence Rates

A measurement of planetary occurrence rates based on a planet catalog should be robust against details of how initial detections were classified as planets or false positives. This is accomplished by supplying the catalog’s rate of missed planets (completeness) and rate of non-planets incorrectly called planets (reliability). The final Kepler data release (DR25) includes products that can be used with the DR25 planet candidate catalog to correct for completeness and reliability in occurrence rate estimates. This is made possible by the Kepler Robovetter, which algorithmically and uniformly selects planets based on a variety of metrics and thresholds. Completeness, reliability, and occurrence rates potentially depend on these Robovetter thresholds. We study the impact of varying these vetting thresholds using the techniques of Bryson et al. 2019 (arXiv:1906.03575). We explore sets of thresholds that result in more or fewer planets (trading off completeness for reliability), as well as thresholds tuned to pass DR25 false positives identified as possible planets by the Kepler False Positive Working Group. We find that when correcting only for completeness, and not reliability, the resulting occurrence rates have a strong dependence on these threshold sets. For example, the value of SAG13 eta-Earth varies by over a factor of 4 when not corrected for reliability. However, when correcting for both completeness and reliability, occurrence rates using our threshold sets are statistically indistinguishable, with differences being well inside 1-sigma error bars. We present occurrence rates integrated over several period-radius ranges. For example, SAG13 eta-Earth is consistent with 0.127 (+0.094)(-0.054) (from Bryson et al. 2019) for all the Robovetter threshold sets. This result emphasizes the importance of correcting occurrence rates for both completeness and reliability. This suggests that inconsistent completeness and reliability correction may be a significant contributor to the large variation of occurrence rates in recent literature. We plan to make the Robovetter results for our threshold sets available, and encourage the community to use them to examine whether other occurrence rate methods yield similarly robust results.

Bryson, S.

Completable scheduling: An integrated approach to planning and scheduling

The planning problem has traditionally been treated separately from the scheduling problem. However, as more realistic domains are tackled, it becomes evident that the problem of deciding on an ordered set of tasks to achieve a set of goals cannot be treated independently of the problem of actually allocating resources to the tasks. Doing so would result in losing the robustness and flexibility needed to deal with imperfectly modeled domains. Completable scheduling is an approach which integrates the two problems by allowing an a priori planning module to defer particular planning decisions, and consequently the associated scheduling decisions, until execution time. This allows a completable scheduling system to maximize plan flexibility by allowing runtime information to be taken into consideration when making planning and scheduling decision. Furthermore, through the criteria of achievability placed on deferred decision, a completable scheduling system is able to retain much of the goal-directedness and guarantees of achievement afforded by a priori planning. The completable scheduling approach is further enhanced by the use of contingent explanation-based learning, which enables a completable scheduling system to learn general completable plans from example and improve its performance through experience. Initial experimental results show that completable scheduling outperforms classical scheduling as well as pure reactive scheduling in a simple scheduling domain.

Gervasio, Melinda T.

Completeness Index for Earthquake-Induced Landslide Inventories

Understanding the global relation between Earthquake-Induced Landslides (EQILs) and the factors contributing to their initiation is still an open topic within the geomorphological community. Accessing EQIL inventories and analyzing them concerning their potential causes is the key to explore such relation. However, each of the existing EQIL inventories has its level of completeness and associated uncertainty which makes any unified relationship which is challenging to obtain. So far, the completeness of EQIL inventories has never been clearly defined. As a result, it has never been accounted for in global EQIL predictive models. In this technical note, we propose a simple definition for the completeness of EQIL inventories. We analyze 30 digital EQIL for 21 earthquakes and develop a semi-quantitative method to estimate the completeness level, which we refer to as Completeness Index (CI). The CI results from a combination of topographic factors, ground shaking parameters, and a measure derived from landslide size statistics. The proposed CI consists of Low, Moderate, and High completeness classes which can be used to evaluate any landslide inventory. We made the whole procedure to compute the CI accessible in an ArcGIS toolbox together with a test dataset.

Hakan Tanyas

Multiphase complete exchange on Paragon, SP2 and CS-2

The overhead of interprocessor communication is a major factor in limiting the performance of parallel computer systems. The complete exchange is the severest communication pattern in that it requires each processor to send a distinct message to every other processor. This pattern is at the heart of many important parallel applications. On hypercubes, multiphase complete exchange has been developed and shown to provide optimal performance over varying message sizes. Most commercial multicomputer systems do not have a hypercube interconnect. However, they use special purpose hardware and dedicated communication processors to achieve very high performance communication and can be made to emulate the hypercube quite well. Multiphase complete exchange has been implemented on three contemporary parallel architectures: the Intel Paragon, IBM SP2 and Meiko CS-2. The essential features of these machines are described and their basic interprocessor communication overheads are discussed. The performance of multiphase complete exchange is evaluated on each machine. It is shown that the theoretical ideas developed for hypercubes are also applicable in practice to these machines and that multiphase complete exchange can lead to major savings in execution time over traditional solutions.

Bokhari, Shahid H.

Absolute measures of the completeness of the fossil record

Measuring the completeness of the fossil record is essential to understanding evolution over long timescales, particularly when comparing evolutionary patterns among biological groups with different preservational properties. Completeness measures have been presented for various groups based on gaps in the stratigraphic ranges of fossil taxa and on hypothetical lineages implied by estimated evolutionary trees. Here we present and compare quantitative, widely applicable absolute measures of completeness at two taxonomic levels for a broader sample of higher taxa of marine animals than has previously been available. We provide an estimate of the probability of genus preservation per stratigraphic interval, and determine the proportion of living families with some fossil record. The two completeness measures use very different data and calculations. The probability of genus preservation depends almost entirely on the Palaeozoic and Mesozoic records, whereas the proportion of living families with a fossil record is influenced largely by Cenozoic data. These measurements are nonetheless highly correlated, with outliers quite explicable, and we find that completeness is rather high for many animal groups.

Non-NASA Center

NASA’s Space Launch System: Exploration Mission-1 Hardware Nears Completion

The Space Launch System (SLS) Program completed several significant production milestones in 2018 for the launch vehicle’s first mission (Fig. 1) and is poised for greater accomplishments in 2019. With manufacturing and hardware installation finished, Boeing completed the core stage forward join and shipped the liquid hydrogen tank structural test article to Marshall Space Flight Center for testing. The core stage aft join and LOX tank STA are expected to be completed in 2019 on the way to final stage integration. The four EM-1 engines are poised for stage integration in 2019. The Launch Vehicle Stage Adapter completed outfitting at Marshall and will be shipped to Kennedy Space Center in 2019. All solid rocket motor segments for the EM-1 boosters are cast, inspected and ready for shipment to KSC. The upper stage, the Interim Cryogenic Propulsion Stage (ICPS), and the Orion Stage Adapter (OSA), where 13 6U CubeSats will ride to deep space on EM-1, were completed and delivered to Exploration Ground Systems at KSC in 2017 and 2018, respectively. The Program continues to work toward first launch of the nation’s new super heavy lift deep space capability in fiscal 2020. SLS is designed, engineered and tested to launch the most challenging exploration missions, minimizing risk and providing the greatest opportunity for mission success. This paper will discuss the technical and programmatic successes and challenges of the past year and look ahead to plans for 2019.

Honeycutt, John

NASA’s Space Launch System: First Mission Hardware Nears Completion

The Space Launch System (SLS) Program (Fig. 1) completed several significant production milestones in 2018 for its first mission and is poised for greater accomplishments in 2019. With manufacturing and hardware installation complete, Boeing completed the core stage forward join and shipped the liquid hydrogen tank structural test article to Marshall Space Flight Center for testing. The core stage aft join and LOX tank STA are expected to be completed in 2019 on the way to final stage integration. The four EM-1 engines are poised for stage integration in 2019. The Launch Vehicle Stage Adapter completed outfitting at Marshall and will be shipped to Kennedy Space Center in 2019. All solid rocket motor segments for the EM-1 boosters are cast, inspected and ready for shipment to KSC. The Program continues to work toward first launch of the nation’s new super heavy lift deep space capability in fiscal 2020. SLS is designed, engineered and tested to launch the most challenging exploration missions, minimizing risk and providing the greatest opportunity for mission success and scientific discovery. This paper will discuss the technical and programmatic successes and challenges of the past year and look ahead to plans for 2019.

Honeycutt, John

Geographic applications program: Reports completed and in preparation

The purpose of the present compilation is to bring together for ready reference a list of all reports, both completed and in preparation, resulting from NASA sponsorship of the geography program. Wherever possible, complete bibliographic citations are given. Since some of the 141 reports listed are not yet completed, citations can not all be in complete form. The reason for including incomplete citations is the sponsor's need for rather rapid feed-back of information so that it can have a bearing on on-going program planning. This should, therefore, be considered a working bibliography.

Alexander, R. H.

Complete the development and construction of a spaceborne hydrogen maser clock

The objective, to complete the development of an engineering model of a spaceborne hydrogen maser, was successfully achieved. A layout of the maser and detail drawings of the physics package was completed during the first 7 months of the contract. A computer model was made for the maser's thermal design. Using numerical computations, heater resistances were established for 7 temperature controlled zones. The physics package includes: a vacuum manifold that houses four sorption pumps capable of scavenging hydrogen for 4 years, a titanium vacuum tank housing the cavity, metallic seals for all vacuum joints, an RF dissociator within the vacuum envelope, a two-layer printed circuit solenoid and four layers of moly-permalloy magnetic shields. Problems were encountered and overcome in the procurements of the PC solenoid and the magnetic shields. After completion of the fabrication of the maser's components, the maser was assembled using these parts and other components made available by SAO, NRL, and NASA from earlier development work. In March, 1990, the vacuum system was assembled, and by May the maser assembly was completed. The magnetic shielding was poor and the shields were removed, reannealed by a local vendor, and the maser was reassembled. The maser began tests in early June and has been oscillating since that time. The test results of the maser are very good and a life test of the maser is being conducted. It is anticipated that the development and construction of a maser to be tested in space under a new contract from NASA's Marshall Space Flight Center will continue.

Vessot, Robert F. C.

Accelerated complete-linearization method for calculating NLTE model stellar atmospheres

Two approaches to accelerating the method of complete linearization for calculating NLTE model stellar atmospheres are suggested. The first one, the so-called Kantorovich variant of the Newton-Raphson method, consists of keeping the Jacobi matrix of the system fixed, which allows us to calculate the costly matrix inversions only a few times and then keep them fixed during the subsequent computations. The second method is an application of the Ng acceleration. Both methods are extremely easy to implement with any model atmosphere code based on complete linearization. It is demonstrated that both methods, and especially their combination, yield a rapidly and globally convergent algorithm, which takes 2 to 5 times less computer time, depending on the model at hand and the required accuracy, than the ordinary complete linearization. Generally, the time gain is more significant for more complicated models. The methods were tested for a broad range of atmospheric parameters, and in all cases they exhibited similar behavior. Ng acceleration applied on the Kantorovich variant thus offers a significant improvement of the standard complete-linearization method, and may now be used for calculating relatively involved NLTE model stellar atmospheres.

Hubeny, I.

Development of a Climatology of Vertically Complete Wind Profiles from Doppler Radar Wind Profiler Systems

This paper describes in detail the QC and splicing methodology for KSC's 50- and 915-MHz DRWP measurements that generates an extensive archive of vertically complete profiles from 0.20-18.45 km. The concurrent POR from each archive extends from April 2000 to December 2009. MSFC NE applies separate but similar QC processes to each of the 50- and 915-MHz DRWP archives. DRWP literature and data examination provide the basis for developing and applying the automated and manual QC processes on both archives. Depending on the month, the QC'ed 50- and 915-MHz DRWP archives retain 52-65% and 16-30% of the possible data, respectively. The 50- and 915-MHz DRWP QC archives retain 84-91% and 85-95%, respectively, of all the available data provided that data exist in the non- QC'ed archives. Next, MSFC NE applies an algorithm to splice concurrent measurements from both DRWP sources. Last, MSFC NE generates a composite profile from the (up to) five available spliced profiles to effectively characterize boundary layer winds and to utilize all possible 915-MHz DRWP measurements at each timestamp. During a given month, roughly 23,000-32,000 complete profiles exist from 0.25-18.45 km from the composite profiles' archive, and approximately 5,000- 27,000 complete profiles exist from an archive utilizing an individual 915-MHz DRWP. One can extract a variety of profile combinations (pairs, triplets, etc.) from this sample for a given application. The sample of vertically complete DRWP wind measurements not only gives launch vehicle customers greater confidence in loads and trajectory assessments versus using balloon output, but also provides flexibility to simulate different DOL situations across applicable altitudes. In addition to increasing sample size and providing more flexibility for DOL simulations in the vehicle design phase, the spliced DRWP database provides any upcoming launch vehicle program with the capability to utilize DRWP profiles on DOL to compute vehicle steering commands, provided the program applies the procedures that this report describes to new DRWP data on DOL. Decker et al. (2015) details how SLS is proposing to use DRWP data and splicing techniques on DOL. Although automation could enhance the current DOL 50-MHz DRWP QC process and could streamline any future DOL 915-MHz DRWP QC and splicing process, the DOL community would still require manual intervention to ensure that the vehicle only uses valid profiles. If a program desires to use high spatial resolution profiles, then the algorithm could randomly add high-frequency components to the DRWP profiles. The spliced DRWP database provides lots of flexibility in how one performs DOL simulations, and the algorithms that this report provides will assist the aerospace and atmospheric communities that are interested in utilizing the DRWP.

Barbre, Robert E., Jr.

Interim Measures Pilot Study Completion Report, South Repeater Building, Solid Waste Management Unit 121, Hydraulic Containment and Groundwater Treatment System for Per- and Polyfluoroalkyl Substances

This Per- and Polyfluoroalkyl Substances (PFAS) Interim Measures Pilot Study Completion Report was prepared for the National Aeronautics and Space Administration by AECOM Technical Services, Inc. under Contract 80KSC019D0010, Task Order 80KSC021F0096. The purpose of this report is to document the pilot study activities at the South Repeater Building, Solid Waste Management Unit (SWMU) 121. This report details the additional assessment activities completed from June 2023 through November 2023 and the subsequent pilot study completed at the South Repeater Building conducted in December 2023 through February 2024. Initial activities were conducted in accordance with the Pilot Study Work Plan (NASA 2023), submitted to the KSC Remediation Team and accepted by the team on October 26, 2023. The objectives of the pilot study were to: • Provide information on aquifer characteristics and to aid in future modeling and remedial design activities to mitigate off-KSC migration of PFAS compounds. • Develop information on characteristics of the surficial aquifer system, specifically transmissivity, storage coefficient, hydraulic conductivity, and vertical hydraulic conductivity. • Obtain data to support construction and calibration of a groundwater flow model. • Acquire design parameters necessary for future remedial design activities, specifically radius of influence, drawdown, flow rates, and pump settings. The following activities were completed to meet the pilot study objectives: • Groundwater and surface water sampling • Geophysical investigation via Hydraulic Profiling Tool (HPT) and soil sampling • Installation of observation and extraction wells via rotosonic techniques • Slug, step, and pump testing activities • Initial modeling efforts for a groundwater hydraulic containment system. Results of the pilot study and modeling activities are being used in the development of a groundwater containment and treatment system for the site.

PFAS

Single visit completeness optimization

The Terrestrial Planet Finder Coronagraph (TPF-C) is a NASA pre-phase. A orbiting telescope with the goal of detecting and characterizing visible and near-IR light refelected from terrestrial planets. We use observational completeness, defined as the fraction of potentially observable planets that are detected, to determine how well the proposed telescope meets the mission goals. Single visit completeness is optimized by slecting the length of observation per target that maximizes the completeness for the ensemble of stars. In this memo we describe the integration time calculations and two approaches to single visit optimization.

optimization

Tables of Aerodynamic Coefficients Obtained from Developed Newtonian Expressions for Complete and Partial Conic and Spheric Bodies at Combined Angles of Attack and Sideslip with Some Comparisons with Hypersonic Experimental Data

Closed-form expressions and tables composed from these expressions are presented for complete and partial conic and spheric bodies at combined angles of attack and sideslip in Newtonian flow. Aerodynamic coefficients of these bodies are tabulated for various body segments over a range of angles of attack from 1 deg to 85 deg and angles of sideslip from 0 deg to 15 deg. Some comparisons between Newtonian predictions and hypersonic experimental aerodynamic characteristics were made for conic bodies hawing various surface slopes, nose bluntnesses, and body cross sections to indicate the range of validity of the theory. In general, the theory is shown to agree quite well with experimental results for sharp-nose complete cones and for configurations hawing large blunted noses and steep surface slopes. However, agreement between theory and experiment generally is poor for the more slender, slightly blunted complete or half conic bodies and also for sharp-nose half conic bodies where real-flow phenomena such as forebody interference, viscous forces, leeward surface contributions, or leading-edge pressure reductions may have significant effect. The agreement between theory and experiment for the bodies considered can be improved by using the stagnation pressure coefficient behind a normal shock rather than 2 as the Newtonian coefficient, although for the sharp-nose half conic bodies there i s no theoretical justification for this modification.

Armstrong, William O.

Completely modular thermionic reactor ion propulsion system /trips/.

Description of a nuclear reactor powered ion propulsion system which is an advanced completely modularized system lending itself to development of prototype and/or flight type components without the need for complete system tests until late in the development program. This modularity is achieved in all of the subsystems and components of the electric propulsion system, including the thermionic fuel elements, the heat rejection subsystem (head pipes), the power conditioning modules, and the ion thrusters. The use of heat pipes for cooling the collectors and as a means of heat transport to the radiator allows early prototype or flight configuration testing of a small module of the heat rejection subsystem as opposed to full scale liquid metal pumps and radiators in a large vacuum chamber. The power conditioner (p/c) is arranged in modules with passive cooling which allows complete prototype testing. The ion engines are typically matched with one or more p/c modules and are the same size for any power level propulsion system of interest.

Peelgren, M. L.

On the simultaneous analysis of several complete samples - The V/Vmax and Ve/Va variables, with applications to quasars

Methods are derived for applying the V/Vmax variable when several complete samples are analyzed simultaneously. A new, related, variable, V(e)/V(a), which is superior to V/Vmax when sufficient observational data are available, is introduced. It is shown how statistically independent complete samples can be generated from partially overlapping samples such that each observed object appears only once in the analysis. These methods make it possible to combine the information from different complete samples, and to make an efficient use of all available data. Illustrative examples for quasars are given. It is shown how the generalized V/Vmax and V(e)/V(a) can be used to find the amount of cosmological evolution of quasars and its associated range of uncertainty.

Avni, Y.

An example of a harmonizable process whose spectral domain is not complete

The question of completeness of the spectral domain of harmonizable processes has been open for some years. An example is given of a harmonizable process whose spectral domain is not complete. This shows that a recent result which claims the completeness of all such spectral domains is false.

Miamee, A. G.