New Horizons of Systems Science: Systems Dynamics Relationship to Systems Engineering Principles, Complex Systems, Category Theory
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Modern network theory applications to analysis of complex systems
Information theory of complex systems
In the last 15 years, terrestrial geomorphology has been revolutionized by the theories of chaotic systems, fractals, self-organization, and selforganized criticality. Except for the application of fractal theory to the analysis of lava flows and rampart craters on Mars, these theories have not yet been applied to problems of Martian landscape evolution. These complexity theories are elucidated below, along with the methods used to relate these theories to the realities of Martian fluvial systems.
The problem of 'human error' is pervasive in engineering systems in which the human is involved. In contrast to the common engineering approach of dealing with error probabilistically, the present research seeks to alleviate problems associated with error by gaining a greater understanding of causes and contributing factors from a human information processing perspective. The general approach involves identifying conditions which are hypothesized to contribute to errors, and experimentally creating the conditions in order to verify the hypotheses. The conceptual framework which serves as the basis for this research is discussed briefly, followed by a description of upcoming research. Finally, the potential relevance of this research to design, training, and aiding issues is discussed.
Information theory and relevance to study of complex systems
For many systems characterized as "complex" the patterns exhibited on different scales differ markedly from one another. For example the biomass distribution in a human body "looks very different" depending on the scale at which one examines it. Conversely, the patterns at different scales in "simple" systems (e.g., gases, mountains, crystals) vary little from one scale to another. Accordingly, the degrees of self-dissimilarity between the patterns of a system at various scales constitute a complexity "signature" of that system. Here we present a novel quantification of self-dissimilarity. This signature can, if desired, incorporate a novel information-theoretic measure of the distance between probability distributions that we derive here. Whatever distance measure is chosen, our quantification of self-dissimilarity can be measured for many kinds of real-world data. This allows comparisons of the complexity signatures of wholly different kinds of systems (e.g., systems involving information density in a digital computer vs. species densities in a rain-forest vs. capital density in an economy, etc.). Moreover, in contrast to many other suggested complexity measures, evaluating the self-dissimilarity of a system does not require one to already have a model of the system. These facts may allow self-dissimilarity signatures to be used a s the underlying observational variables of an eventual overarching theory relating all complex systems. To illustrate self-dissimilarity we present several numerical experiments. In particular, we show that underlying structure of the logistic map is picked out by the self-dissimilarity signature of time series produced by that map
Systems analysis and control theory consideration are given to simulations of both individual components and total systems, in order to develop a reliable control strategy for a Controlled Ecological Life Support System (CELSS) which includes complex biological components. Because of the numerous nonlinearities and tight coupling within the biological component, classical control theory may be inadequate and the statistical analysis of factorial experiments more useful. The range in control characteristics of particular species may simplify the overall task by providing an appropriate balance of stability and controllability to match species function in the overall design. The ultimate goal of this research is the coordination of biological and mechanical subsystems in order to achieve a self-supporting environment.
The objective is the development of methods, technology, and skills that will enable NASA to cost-effectively specify, build, and manage reliable software which can evolve and be maintained over an extended period. The need for such software is rooted in the increasing integration of software and computing components into NASA systems. Current NASA Software Engineering expertise was applied toward some of the largest reliable systems including: shuttle launch; ground support; shuttle simulation; minor control; satellite tracking; and scientific data systems. Unfortunately, no theory exists for reliable complex software systems. NASA is seeking to fill this theoretical gap through a number of approaches. One such approach is to conduct research on theoretical foundations for managing complex software systems. It includes: communication models, new and modified paradigms, and life-cycle models. Another approach is research in the theoretical foundations for reliable software development and validation. It focuses upon formal specifications, programming languages, software engineering systems, software reuse, formal verification, and software safety. Further approaches involve benchmarking a NASA software environment, experimentation within the NASA context, evolution of present NASA methodology, and transfer of technology to the space station software support environment.
Thirty years of control systems research has produced an enormous body of theoretical results in feedback synthesis. Yet such results see relatively little practical application, and there remains an unsettling gap between classical single-loop techniques (Nyquist, Bode, root locus, pole placement) and modern multivariable approaches (LQG and H infinity theory). Large scale, complex systems, such as high performance aircraft and flexible space structures, now demand efficient, reliable design of multivariable feedback controllers which optimally tradeoff performance against modeling accuracy, bandwidth, sensor noise, actuator power, and control law complexity. A methodology is described which encompasses numerous practical design constraints within a single unified formulation. The approach, which is based upon coupled systems or modified Riccati and Lyapunov equations, encompasses time-domain linear-quadratic-Gaussian theory and frequency-domain H theory, as well as classical objectives such as gain and phase margin via the Nyquist circle criterion. In addition, this approach encompasses the optimal projection approach to reduced-order controller design. The current status of the overall theory will be reviewed including both continuous-time and discrete-time (sampled-data) formulations.
A hierarchy of human activities is derived by analyzing automobile driving in general terms. A structural description leads to a block diagram and a time-sharing computer analogy. The range of applicability of existing mathematical models is considered with respect to the hierarchy of human activities in actual complex tasks. Other mathematical tools so far not often applied to man machine systems are also discussed. The mathematical descriptions at least briefly considered here include utility, estimation, control, queueing, and fuzzy set theory as well as artificial intelligence techniques. Some thoughts are given as to how these methods might be integrated and how further work might be pursued.
A practical method of data assimilation for use with large, nonlinear, ocean general circulation models is explored. A Kalman filter based on approximation of the state error covariance matrix is presented, employing a reduction of the effective model dimension, the error's asymptotic steady state limit, and a time-invariant linearization of the dynamic model for the error integration. The approximations lead to dramatic computational savings in applying estimation theory to large complex systems. We examine the utility of the approximate filter in assimilating different measurement types using a twin experiment of an idealized Gulf Stream. A nonlinear primitive equation model of an unstable east-west jet is studied with a state dimension exceeding 170,000 elements. Assimilation of various pseudomeasurements are examined, including velocity, density, and volume transport at localized arrays and realistic distributions of satellite altimetry and acoustic tomography observations. Results are compared in terms of their effects on the accuracies of the estimation. The approximate filter is shown to outperform an empirical nudging scheme used in a previous study. The examples demonstrate that useful approximate estimation errors can be computed in a practical manner for general circulation models.
Like two enormous steam engines, throttles wide-open, bells clanging and whistles screeching, careening toward each other down the same track, two powerful forces are about to collide and the point of collision will be smack in the middle of the white-collar workplace. Moreover, once the dust has settled, it is quite likely that we will never be able to think about the white-collar workplace in quite the same way again. The forces couldn't be more different. One force, the theory of complex adaptive systems, has its roots in the radical new sciences of chaos and complexity. The other force, the notion of organizations being learning systems, more like living organisms than 'information factories,' is an outgrowth of the new management thinking of leading organizational theorists like the Claremont Graduate School's Peter Drucker, MIT's Peter Senge, and Hitotsubashi University's Ikujiro Nonaka. Nevertheless, both the new science and the new management thinking seem to point to a similar and perhaps even startling conclusion: the business organization of the 21st century will look nothing like the bureaucratic organizational model that prevails in most companies today, a model that has remained largely unchanged since the manufacturing heydays of 1950s. While the details of the new organization remain sketchy, its rough outline is already beginning to take shape. Rather than simply being flatter through the elimination of layer upon layer of 'middle management,' the new organization is likely to be made up of networks of specialists who will be, for all practical purposes, self-managing. Rather than focusing on issues like re-engineering business processes, a holdover from Taylorism, the focus will be on supporting the continuous learning of an organization's specialists, the sharing of this learning with other specialists, and the embedding of this learning in the organization's physical structure. Finally, rather than viewing themselves as going through relatively long periods of stability punctuated by shorts bursts of 'reorganization,' business enterprises will come to realize that their very survival depends upon their being in a state of continuous organization. The implications of the new organization with respect to how companies approach the planning, design, and management of the technology infrastructure that enables individual learning, self-management, and continuous orgsnization, are both numerous and far-reaching. As part of this technology infrastructure, the white-collar workplace exists in the form it does today as a direct result of management's beliefs about how time, space, and tools ought to be organized and managed in order to accomplish useful intellectual work. Obviously, if these beliefs change radically, as both the new science and the new management thinking suggest is about to happen, then it is almost inevitable that the form and function of the white-collar workplace will change radically, as well. Will there even be a white-collar workplace in the 21st century, in the sense of purpose-built facilities designed to support the co-location of large numbers of white-collar workers? Only time will tell. However, the leading indicators seem to suggest that, as the old saying goes, 'We ain't seen nothin' yet!'
An approximate Kalman filter and smoother, based on approximations of the state estimation error covariance matrix, is described. Approximations include a reduction of the effective state dimension, use of a static asymptotic error limit, and a time-invariant linearization of the dynamic model for error integration. The approximations lead to dramatic computational savings in applying estimation theory to large complex systems. Examples of use come from TOPEX/POSEIDON.
A practical method of data assimilation for use with large, nonlinear, ocean general circulation models is explored. A Kalman filter based on approximations of the state error covariance matrix is presented, employing a reduction of the effective model dimension, the error's asymptotic steady-state limit, and a time-invariant linearization of the dynamic model for the error integration. The approximations lead to dramatic computational savings in applying estimation theory to large complex systems. We examine the utility of the approximate filter in assimilating different measurement types using a twin experiment of an idealized Gulf Stream. A nonlinear primitive equation model of an unstable east-west jet is studied with a state dimension exceeding 170,000 elements. Assimilation of various pseudo measurements is examined, including velocity, density, and volume transport at localized arrays, and realistic distributions of satellite altimetry and acoustic tomography observations. Results are compared in terms of their effects on the accuracies of the estimation. The approximate filter is shown to outperform a previous study that used an empirical nudging scheme. The examples demonstrate that useful approximate estimation errors can be computed in a practical manner for general circulation models.
An efficient computer program, called GRID2D/3D was developed to generate single and composite grid systems within geometrically complex two- and three-dimensional (2- and 3-D) spatial domains that can deform with time. GRID2D/3D generates single grid systems by using algebraic grid generation methods based on transfinite interpolation in which the distribution of grid points within the spatial domain is controlled by stretching functions. All single grid systems generated by GRID2D/3D can have grid lines that are continuous and differentiable everywhere up to the second-order. Also, grid lines can intersect boundaries of the spatial domain orthogonally. GRID2D/3D generates composite grid systems by patching together two or more single grid systems. The patching can be discontinuous or continuous. For continuous composite grid systems, the grid lines are continuous and differentiable everywhere up to the second-order except at interfaces where different single grid systems meet. At interfaces where different single grid systems meet, the grid lines are only differentiable up to the first-order. For 2-D spatial domains, the boundary curves are described by using either cubic or tension spline interpolation. For 3-D spatial domains, the boundary surfaces are described by using either linear Coon's interpolation, bi-hyperbolic spline interpolation, or a new technique referred to as 3-D bi-directional Hermite interpolation. Since grid systems generated by algebraic methods can have grid lines that overlap one another, GRID2D/3D contains a graphics package for evaluating the grid systems generated. With the graphics package, the user can generate grid systems in an interactive manner with the grid generation part of GRID2D/3D. GRID2D/3D is written in FORTRAN 77 and can be run on any IBM PC, XT, or AT compatible computer. In order to use GRID2D/3D on workstations or mainframe computers, some minor modifications must be made in the graphics part of the program; no modifications are needed in the grid generation part of the program. This technical memorandum describes the theory and method used in GRID2D/3D.
The advances in theory and computing technology over the last decade have led to enormous progress in applying atomistic molecular dynamics (MD) methods to the characterization, prediction, and design of chemical, biological, and material systems,.
Development of methods for predicting operational readiness of complex systems based on probability theory is discussed. Operational readiness of systems is defined and mathematical relationships involved in determining readiness are presented. Example of reliability engineering and quality control is included.