Future of Managing Complexity
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In order to handle the expected increase in air traffic volume, the next generation air transportation system is moving towards a distributed control architecture, in which groundbased service providers such as controllers and traffic managers and air-based users such as pilots share responsibility for aircraft trajectory generation and management. This paper presents preliminary research investigating a distributed trajectory-oriented approach to manage traffic complexity, based on preserving trajectory flexibility. The underlying hypotheses are that preserving trajectory flexibility autonomously by aircraft naturally achieves the aggregate objective of avoiding excessive traffic complexity, and that trajectory flexibility is increased by collaboratively minimizing trajectory constraints without jeopardizing the intended air traffic management objectives. This paper presents an analytical framework in which flexibility is defined in terms of robustness and adaptability to disturbances and preliminary metrics are proposed that can be used to preserve trajectory flexibility. The hypothesized impacts are illustrated through analyzing a trajectory solution space in a simple scenario with only speed as a degree of freedom, and in constraint situations involving meeting multiple times of arrival and resolving conflicts.
The growing demand for air travel is increasing the need for mitigating air traffic congestion and complexity problems, which are already at high levels. At the same time new surveillance, navigation, and communication technologies are enabling major transformations in the air traffic management system, including net-based information sharing and collaboration, performance-based access to airspace resources, and trajectory-based rather than clearance-based operations. The new system will feature different schemes for allocating tasks and responsibilities between the ground and airborne agents and between the human and automation, with potential capacity and cost benefits. Therefore, complexity management requires new metrics and methods that can support these new schemes. This paper presents metrics and methods for preserving trajectory flexibility that have been proposed to support a trajectory-based approach for complexity management by airborne or ground-based systems. It presents extensions to these metrics as well as to the initial research conducted to investigate the hypothesis that using these metrics to guide user and service provider actions will naturally mitigate traffic complexity. The analysis showed promising results in that: (1) Trajectory flexibility preservation mitigated traffic complexity as indicated by inducing self-organization in the traffic patterns and lowering traffic complexity indicators such as dynamic density and traffic entropy. (2)Trajectory flexibility preservation reduced the potential for secondary conflicts in separation assurance. (3) Trajectory flexibility metrics showed potential application to support user and service provider negotiations for minimizing the constraints imposed on trajectories without jeopardizing their objectives.
The applicability of integrated parametric models for the budgeting and management of complex projects is investigated. Methods for building a very flexible, interactive prototype for a project planning system, and software resources available for this purpose, are discussed and evaluated. The prototype is required to be sensitive to changing objectives, changing target dates, changing costs relationships, and changing budget constraints. To achieve the integration of costs and project and task durations, parametric cost functions are defined by a process of trapezoidal segmentation, where the total cost for the project is the sum of the various project cost segments, and each project cost segment is the integral of a linearly segmented cost loading function over a specific interval. The cost can thus be expressed algebraically. The prototype was designed using Lotus-123 as the primary software tool. This prototype implements a methodology for interactive project scheduling that provides a model of a system that meets most of the goals for the first phase of the study and some of the goals for the second phase.
The Exascale Computing Project (ECP)’s Simplified Interface to Complex Memories (SICM) effort focuses on developing universal interfaces for discovering, managing, and sharing data across complex memory hierarchies. These facilitate the exploitation of emerging memory technologies and support precise control over their various trade-offs such as high-bandwidth versus low-latency, persistent versus ephemeral, high-capacity versus low-capacity, and near-CPU versus near-GPU. SICM comprises three interrelated components: a low-level interface, a high-level interface, and a persistent-heap interface. The low-level SICM interface is intended for system and run-time developers as well as expert application developers who prefer full control of the memory objects used within their application. The high-level SICM interface builds upon the low-level interface, employing application-level profiling and analysis to optimize data management for complex memory hierarchies. The persistent-heap interface provides applications with a persistent memory allocator that can allocate custom C++ data structures in both block-storage and byte-addressable persistent memories.
The complexity of the Mars Science Laboratory (MSL) mission presented the Entry, Descent, and Landing systems engineering team with many challenges in its Verification and Validation (V&V) campaign. This paper describes some of the logistical hurdles related to managing a complex set of requirements, test venues, test objectives, and analysis products in the implementation of a specific portion of the overall V&V program to test the interaction of flight software with the MSL avionics suite. Application-specific solutions to these problems are presented herein, which can be generalized to other space missions and to similar formidable systems engineering problems.
Program Management Summary; Organizational structure is established. Roles and responsibilities are well defined: a) All major contracts are in place. b) All foreign partners are in place, operating under signed Memoranda of Understanding (MOUs). c) Partners include GSFC, NGST, Ball, ITT, ATK, STScI, ESA, CSA, UAz, LM, JPL, MSFC, ARC, JSC, etc. All enabling technologies are at Technical Readiness Level-6. Earned Value Management is being applied to all major contracts consistent with Agency guidance. Schedules are baselined and the project critical path is understood/managed. Budget with reserves established. Liens and threats system in use. Formal Configuration Management (CM) processes are in place. Project-level schedules are maintained within the CM system. Formal Risk Management processes are in place. Requirements are stable and flowed down. Project metrics are established and tracked monthly: a) Includes technical as well as cost and schedule metrics. b) Changes as well as trends are reported each month.
This report describes an analysis of current transport aircraft system-management displays and the initial development of a set of display concepts for providing information about aircraft system status. The new display concepts are motivated by a shift away from the current approach to aircraft system alerting that reports the status of physical components, and towards displaying the implications for mission capability. Specifically, the proposed display concepts describe transport airplane component failures in terms of operational consequences of aircraft system degradations. The research activity described in this report is an effort to examine the utility of different representations of complex systems and operating environments to support real-time decision making during off-nominal situations. A specific focus is to develop display concepts that provide more highly integrated information to allow pilots to more easily reason about the operational consequences of the off-nominal situations. The work can also serve as a foundational element to autonomy-supported decision making since we are developing ideas for integrating information from the airplane and the operational environment to support decision making.
An overview of the James Webb Space Telescope (JWST) project and its status are presented. The JWST is a deployable infrared telescope with a 6.5 meter diameter segmented, adjustable primary mirror. It has a cryogenic temperature telescope and instruments suited for infrared performance. It will be launched in 2013 on an European Space Agency-supplied Ariane 5 rocket 20 Sun-Earth L2 for a 5-year mission. Compared to other telescopes the JWST: has a 2.7 time longer diameter and 2.7 time longer wavelength capability than the Hubble Space Telescope (HST), 38 times increased sensitivity at K band and 8 times increased sensitivity at H band than the HST NICMOS; and, 8-24 times better angular resolution than the Spitzer. An instrument overview and integration and test flow overview are provided. The JWST project management approach, including organizational chart, program phases, technology status, and project critical path summary, are included. Additionally, project management tools and guidelines are are outlined.
As high performance computing technology progresses, computational simulations are becoming more advanced in their capabilities. In the computational aerosciences domain, single discipline steady-state simulations computed on a single grid are far from the state-of-the-art. In their place are complex, time-dependent multidisciplinary simulations that attempt to model a given geometry more realistically. The product of these multidisciplinary simulations is a massive amount of data stored in different formats, grid topologies, units of measure, etc., as a result of the differences in the simulated physical domains. In addition to the challenges posed by setting up and performing the simulation, additional challenges exist in analyzing computational results. Visualization plays an important role in the advancement of multidisciplinary simulations. To date, visualization has been used to aid in the interpretation of large amounts of simulation data. Because the human visual system is effective in digesting a large amount of information presented graphically, visualization has helped simulation scientists to understand complex simulation results. As these simulations become even more complex, integrating several different physical domains, visualization will be critical to digest the massive amount of information. Another important role for visualization is to provide a common communication medium from which the domain scientists can use to develop, debug, and analyze their work. Multidisciplinary analyses are the next step in simulation technology, not only in computational aerosciences, but in many other areas such as global climate modeling. Visualization researchers must understand and work towards the challenges posed by multidisciplinary simulation scenarios. This paper addresses some of these challenges, describing technologies that must be investigated to create a useful visualization analysis tool for domain scientists.
This presentation highlights the challenges in the design of software to support robotic spacecraft. Robotic spacecraft offer a higher degree of autonomy, however currently more capabilities are required, primarily in the software, while providing the same or higher degree of reliability. The complexity of designing such an autonomous system is great, particularly while attempting to address the needs for increased capabilities and high reliability without increased needs for time or money. The efforts to develop programming models for the new hardware and the integration of software architecture are highlighted.
On December 4th, 1998 at 3:36 AM STS-88 (the space shuttle Endeavor) was launched with the "Node 1 Unity Module" in its payload bay. After working on the Space Station program for a very long time, that launch was one of the most beautiful sights I had ever seen! As the Shuttle proceeded to rendezvous with the Russian American module know as Zarya, I returned to Houston quickly to start monitoring the activation of the software I had spent the last 3 years working on. The FGB module (also known as "Zarya"), was grappled by the shuttle robotic arm, and connected to the Unity module. Crewmembers then hooked up the power and data connections between Zarya and Unity. On December 7th, 1998 at 9:49 PM CST the Node Control Software was activated. On December 15th, 1998, the Node-l/Zarya "cornerstone" of the International Space Station was left on-orbit. The Node Control Software (NCS) is the first software flown by NASA for the International Space Station (ISS). The ISS Program is considered the most complex international engineering effort ever undertaken. At last count some 18 countries are active partners in this global venture. NCS has performed all of its intended functions on orbit, over 200 miles above us. I'll be describing how we built the NCS software.
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This document describes preliminary research on a distributed, trajectory-oriented approach for traffic complexity management. The approach is to manage traffic complexity in a distributed control environment, based on preserving trajectory flexibility and minimizing constraints. In particular, the document presents an analytical framework to study trajectory flexibility and the impact of trajectory constraints on it. The document proposes preliminary flexibility metrics that can be interpreted and measured within the framework.
This document describes exploratory research on a distributed, trajectory oriented approach for traffic complexity management. The approach is to manage traffic complexity based on preserving trajectory flexibility and minimizing constraints. In particular, the document presents metrics for trajectory flexibility; a method for estimating these metrics based on discrete time and degree of freedom assumptions; a planning algorithm using these metrics to preserve flexibility; and preliminary experiments testing the impact of preserving trajectory flexibility on traffic complexity. The document also describes an early demonstration capability of the trajectory flexibility preservation function in the NASA Autonomous Operations Planner (AOP) platform.
The complexity of the present system for managing air traffic has led to "discreteness" in approaches to creating new concepts: new concepts are created as point designs, based on experience, expertise, and creativity of the proposer. Discrete point designs may be highly successful but they are difficult to substantiate in the face of equally strong substantiation of competing concepts, as well as the state of the art in concept evaluation via simulations. Hybrid concepts may present a compromise - the golden middle. Yet a hybrid of sometimes in principle incompatible concepts forms another point design that faces the challenge of substantiation and validation. We are faced with the need to re-design the air transportation system ab initio. This is a daunting task, especially considering the problem of transitioning from the present system to any fundamentally new system. However, design from scratch is also an opportunity to reconsider approaches to new concept development. In this position paper we propose an approach, Optimized Parametric Functional Design, for systematic development of concepts for management and control of airspace systems, based on optimization formulations in terms of required system functions and states. This reasoning framework, realizable in the context of ab initio system design, offers an approach to deriving substantiated airspace management and control concepts. With growing computational power, we hope that the approach will also yield a methodology for actual dynamic control of airspace
Inherent complexity in large-scale applications may be impossible to eliminate or even ameliorate despite a number of promising advances. In such cases, the complexity must be tolerated and managed. Such management may be beyond the abilities of humans, or require such overhead as to make management by humans unrealistic. A number of initiatives inspired by concepts in biology have arisen for self-management of complex systems. We present some ideas and techniques we have been experimenting with, inspired by lesser-known concepts in biology that show promise in protecting complex systems and represent a step towards self-management of complexity.