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A Review of Recent Advances in Research on Extreme Heat Events

Reviewing recent literature, we report that changes in extreme heat event characteristics such as magnitude, frequency, and duration are highly sensitive to changes in mean global-scale warming. Numerous studies have detected significant changes in the observed occurrence of extreme heat events, irrespective of how such events are defined. Further, a number of these studies have attributed present-day changes in the risk of individual heat events and the documented global-scale increase in such events to anthropogenic-driven warming. Advances in process-based studies of heat events have focused on the proximate land-atmosphere interactions through soil moisture anomalies, and changes in occurrence of the underlying atmospheric circulation associated with heat events in the mid-latitudes. While evidence for a number of hypotheses remains limited, climate change nevertheless points to tail risks of possible changes in heat extremes that could exceed estimates generated from model outputs of mean temperature. We also explore risks associated with compound extreme events and nonlinear impacts associated with extreme heat.

Heat events↗

Compound High Temperature and Low Chlorophyll Extremes in the Ocean Over the Satellite Period

Ocean extreme events severely impact marine organisms and ecosystems. Of particular concern are compoundevents, i.e., when conditions are extreme for multiple potential ocean ecosystem stressors such as temperature and chlorophyll.Yet, little is known about the occurrence, intensity and duration of such compound high temperature (aka marine heatwaves -MHWs) and low chlorophyll (LChl) extreme events, whether their distributions have changed in the past decades and what thepotential drivers are. Here we use satellite-based sea surface temperature and chlorophyll concentration estimates to provide a5first assessment of such compound extreme events. We reveal hotspots of compound MHW and LChl events in the equatorialPacific, along the boundaries of the subtropical gyres, in the northern Indian Ocean, and around Antarctica. In these regions,compound events that typically last one week occur three to seven times more often than expected under the assumption ofindependence between MHWs and LChl events. The occurrence of compound MHW and LChl events varies on seasonalto interannual timescales. At the seasonal timescale, most compound events occur in summer in both hemispheres. At the10interannual timescale, the frequency of compound MHW and LChl events is strongly modulated by large-scale modes of naturalclimate variability such as the El Niño-Southern Oscillation, whose positive phase is associated with increased compoundevent occurrence in the eastern equatorial Pacific and in the Indian Ocean by a factor of up to four. Our results provide a firstunderstanding of where, when and why compound MHW and LChl events occur. Further studies are needed to identify theexact physical and biological drivers of these potentially harmful events in the ocean and their evolution under global warming.

High Temperature↗

Land–Atmosphere Feedbacks Exacerbate Concurrent Soil Drought and Atmospheric Aridity

Compound extremes such as cooccurring soil drought (low soil moisture) and atmospheric aridity (high vapor pressure deficit) can be disastrous for natural and societal systems. Soil drought and atmospheric aridity are 2 main physiological stressors driving widespread vegetation mortality and reduced terrestrial carbon uptake. Here, we empirically demonstrate that strong negative coupling between soil moisture and vapor pressure deficit occurs globally, indicating high probability of cooccurring soil drought and atmospheric aridity. Using the Global Land Atmosphere Coupling Experiment (GLACE)-CMIP5 experiment, we further show that concurrent soil drought and atmospheric aridity are greatly exacerbated by land– atmosphere feedbacks. The feedback of soil drought on the atmosphere is largely responsible for enabling atmospheric aridity extremes. In addition, the soil moisture–precipitation feedback acts to amplify precipitation and soil moisture deficits in most regions. CMIP5 models further show that the frequency of concurrent soil drought and atmospheric aridity enhanced by land–atmosphere feedbacks is projected to increase in the 21st century. Importantly, land– atmosphere feedbacks will greatly increase the intensity of both soil drought and atmospheric aridity beyond that expected from changes in mean climate alone.

Compound extreme events↗

The Long-term Middle Atmospheric Influence of Very Large Solar Proton Events

Long-term variations in ozone have been caused by both natural and humankind related processes. The humankind or anthropogenic influence on ozone originates from the chlorofluorocarbons and halons (chlorine and bromine) and has led to international regulations greatly limiting the release of these substances. Certain natural ozone influences are also important in polar regions and are caused by the impact of solar charged particles on the atmosphere. Such natural variations have been studied in order to better quantify the human influence on polar ozone. Large-scale explosions on the Sun near solar maximum lead to emissions of charged particles (mainly protons and electrons), some of which enter the Earth's magnetosphere and rain down on the polar regions. "Solar proton events" have been used to describe these phenomena since the protons associated with these solar events sometimes create a significant atmospheric disturbance. We have used the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model (WACCM) to study the long-term (> few months) influences of solar proton events from 1963 through 2004 on stratospheric ozone and temperature. There were extremely large solar proton events in 1972, 1989,2000,2001, and 2003. These events caused very distinctive polar changes in layers of the Earth's atmosphere known as the stratosphere (12-50 km; -7-30 miles) and mesosphere (50-90 km; 30-55 miles). The solar protons connected with these events created hydrogen- and nitrogen-containing compounds, which led to the polar ozone destruction. The nitrogen-containing compounds, called odd nitrogen, lasted much longer than the hydrogen-containing compounds and led to long-lived stratospheric impacts. An extremely active period for these events occurred in the five-year period, 2000- 2004, and caused increases in odd nitrogen which lasted for several months after individual events. Associated stratospheric ozone decreases of >lo% were calculated to last for up to five months past the largest events. However, the computed total column ozone and stratospheric temperature changes connected with the solar events were not found to be statistically significant. Thus, solar proton events do not likely contribute significantly to measured total column ozone fluctuations and stratospheric temperature changes.

Jackman, Charles H.↗

The Extreme 2016 Wheat Failure in France

France suffered in 2016 the most extreme wheat yield decline in recent history, with some districts losing 55% yield. To attribute causes, we combined the largest coherent detailed wheat field experimental dataset with statistical and crop model techniques, climate information and yield physiology. The 2016 yield was composed of up to 40% fewer grains that were up to 30% lighter than expected across eight research stations in France. The flowering stage was affected by prolonged cloud cover and heavy rainfall when 31% of the loss in grain yield was incurred from reduced solar radiation and 19% from floret damage. Grain filling was also affected as 26% of grain yield loss was caused by soil anoxia, 11% by fungal foliar diseases and 10% by ear blight. Compounding climate effects caused the extreme yield decline. The likelihood of these compound factors recurring under future climate change is estimated to change with a higher frequency of extremely low wheat yields.

Extreme weather↗

Portland Urban Development: Quantifying and Visualizing Urban Heat with Compounding Vulnerabilities to Support Community Depaving Initiatives

Urban heat is a pressing concern in Portland, Oregon as climate change induced heat waves increase. Cities experience higher temperatures due to the urban heat island effect (UHI), and environmental injustice and disenfranchisement in minority communities expose low-income and Black, Indigenous, and People of Color (BIPOC) residents to more extreme and debilitating heat events. Our team identified Portland’s communities on the frontlines of urban heat impacts by overlapping environmental and social vulnerabilities using NASA Earth observations. We partnered with Depave, a Portland-based nonprofit that works alongside communities to replace pavement with greenspace in historically disenfranchised areas. Using Landsat 8 Thermal Infrared Sensor (TIRS) imagery, we mapped Land Surface Temperature (LST) and developed a heat-specific Social Vulnerability Index (SVI) through a Principal Component Analysis (PCA) to identify Portland’s communities with the highest potential heat vulnerability. Then, we calculated the temperature change of depaving in six case studies to quantify Depave's efforts in heat mitigation and environmental justice. Our analysis demonstrated that, throughout Portland, there are frontline communities experiencing high potential social vulnerability to extreme temperatures due to environmental injustices and over-pavement. Finally, Depave’s impact on urban heat is observable and quantifiable using remote-sensing data and tools, with an average of 1ºF LST decrease across the six case studies. We illustrated the significance of local urban heat mitigation efforts and propose next steps for conducting inclusive and intentional research that highlights the lived experiences and resilience of frontline communities.

Environmental justice↗

Developing Flexible Discrete Event Simulation Models in an Uncertain Policy Environment

On February 1st, 2010 U.S. President Barack Obama submitted to Congress his proposed budget request for Fiscal Year 2011. This budget included significant changes to the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA), including the proposed cancellation of the Constellation Program. This change proved to be controversial and Congressional approval of the program's official cancellation would take many months to complete. During this same period an end-to-end discrete event simulation (DES) model of Constellation operations was being built through the joint efforts of Productivity Apex Inc. (PAl) and Science Applications International Corporation (SAIC) teams under the guidance of NASA. The uncertainty in regards to the Constellation program presented a major challenge to the DES team, as to: continue the development of this program-of-record simulation, while at the same time remain prepared for possible changes to the program. This required the team to rethink how it would develop it's model and make it flexible enough to support possible future vehicles while at the same time be specific enough to support the program-of-record. This challenge was compounded by the fact that this model was being developed through the traditional DES process-orientation which lacked the flexibility of object-oriented approaches. The team met this challenge through significant pre-planning that led to the "modularization" of the model's structure by identifying what was generic, finding natural logic break points, and the standardization of interlogic numbering system. The outcome of this work resulted in a model that not only was ready to be easily modified to support any future rocket programs, but also a model that was extremely structured and organized in a way that facilitated rapid verification. This paper discusses in detail the process the team followed to build this model and the many advantages this method provides builders of traditional process-oriented discrete event simulations.

Miranda, David J.↗

Volatile chemical product emissions enhance ozone and modulate urban chemistry

Decades of air quality improvements have substantially reduced the motor vehicle emissions of volatile organic compounds (VOCs). Today, volatile chemical products (VCPs) are responsible for half of the petrochemical VOCs emitted in major urban areas. We show that VCP emissions are ubiquitous in US and European cities and scale with population density. We report significant VCP emissions for New York City (NYC), including a monoterpene flux of 14.7 to 24.4 kg ⋅ d−1 ⋅ km−2 from fragranced VCPs and other anthropogenic sources, which is comparable to that of a summertime forest. Photochemical modeling of an extreme heat event, with ozone well in excess of US standards, illustrates the significant impact of VCPs on air quality. In the most populated regions of NYC, ozone was sensitive to anthropogenic VOCs (AVOCs), even in the presence of biogenic sources. Within this VOC-sensitive regime, AVOCs contributed upwards of ∼20 ppb to maximum 8-h average ozone. VCPs accounted for more than 50% of this total AVOC contribution. Emissions from fragranced VCPs, including personal care and cleaning products, account for at least 50% of the ozone attributed to VCPs. We show that model simulations of ozone depend foremost on the magnitude of VCP emissions and that the addition of oxygenated VCP chemistry impacts simulations of key atmospheric oxidation products. NYC is a case study for developed megacities, and the impacts of VCPs on local ozone are likely similar for other major urban regions across North America or Europe.

Matthew M. Coggon↗

Trend Estimates of AERONET-Observed and Model-Simulated AOTs Between 1993 and 2013

Recently, temporal changes in Aerosol Optical Thickness (AOT) have been investigated based on model simulations, satellite and ground-based observations. Most AOT trend studies used monthly or annual arithmetic means that discard details of the generally right-skewed AOT distributions. Potentially, such results can be biased by extreme values (including outliers). This study additionally uses percentiles (i.e., the lowest 5%, 25%, 50%, 75% and 95% of the monthly cumulative distributions fitted to Aerosol Robotic Network (AERONET)-observed and ECHAM/MESSy Atmospheric Chemistry (EMAC)-model simulated AOTs) that are less affected by outliers caused by measurement error, cloud contamination and occasional extreme aerosol events. Since the limited statistical representativeness of monthly percentiles and means can lead to bias, this study adopts the number of observations as a weighting factor, which improves the statistical robustness of trend estimates. By analyzing the aerosol composition of AERONET-observed and EMAC-simulated AOTs in selected regions of interest, we distinguish the dominant aerosol types and investigate the causes of regional AOT trends. The simulated and observed trends are generally consistent with a high correlation coefficient (R = 0.89) and small bias (slope+/-2(sigma) = 0.75 +/- 0.19). A significant decrease in EMAC-decomposed AOTs by water-soluble compounds and black carbon is found over the USA and the EU due to environmental regulation. In particular, a clear reversal in the AERONET AOT trend percentiles is found over the USA, probably related to the AOT diurnal cycle and the frequency of wildfires. In most of the selected regions of interest, EMAC-simulated trends are mainly attributed to the significant changes of the dominant aerosols; e.g., significant decrease in sea salt and water soluble compounds over Central America, increase in dust over Northern Africa and Middle East, and decrease in black carbon and organic carbon over Australia.

AERONET↗

Burning and Suppression of Solids–II (BASS-II) Summary Report

The Burning and Suppression of Solids (BASS) experiment hardware is a small flow duct that provides containment for small scale burning of solid samples within the Microgravity Science Glovebox (MSG) aboard the International Space Station (ISS). A video camera with a data overlay and a 35-mm still camera record the combustion events. The controls (ignition, fan speed, etc.) are operated by an astronaut while the principal investigator team monitors the experiment from the ground and communicates directly with the astronaut. For the first time on ISS, BASS–II utilized MSG working volume dilution with gaseous N2. We developed a perfectly stirred reactor model to determine the N2 flow time and flow rate to obtain the desired reduced O2 concentration in the working volume for each test. We calibrated the model with the Compound Specific Analyzer-Combustion Products (CSA-CP) O2 readings offset using the Major Constituents Analyzer reading of the ISS ambient atmosphere data for that day. This worked out extremely well for operations, and added a new vital variable, ambient O2 level, to our test matrices. The main variables tested in BASS–II were ambient O2 concentration, ventilation flow velocity, and fuel type, thickness, and geometry. BASS–II also utilized the onboard CSA-CP for O2 and CO readings, and the Carbon Dioxide Monitor for CO2 readings before and after each test. Readings from these sensors allow us to evaluate the completeness of the combustion. The O2 and CO2 readings before and after each test were analyzed and compared very well to stoichiometric ratios for a one-step gas-phase reaction. The CO versus CO2 followed a linear trend for some datasets, but not for all the different geometries of fuel and flow tested. We calculated the heat release rates during each test from the O2 consumption and burn times, using the constant 13.1 kJ of heat released per gram of O2 consumed. The results showed that most of the tests had heat release rates well below 100 W. Lastly, the global equivalence ratio for the tests is estimated to be fuel rich, 1.3 on average using mass loss and O2 consumption data.

Microgravity↗

Satellites Support Disaster Response to Storm-Driven Landslides

High winds and flooding storm surges driven by tropical cyclones cause some of the deadliest and most damaging weather-related conditions around the world. The rainfall that cyclones bring compounds these conditions and, in hilly or mountainous areas, can trigger landslides that cause even more widespread and devastating impacts. When extreme precipitation occurs over short time frames, hillslopes may become saturated and critically unstable. The most intense storms can trigger thousands of landslides in mountainous areas, as was dramatically illustrated in Puerto Rico in September 2017, when Hurricane Maria’s rains left the landscape scarred by roughly 40,000 landslides. Before and during a major cyclone, disaster responders need information about where landslides are likely to occur. In the aftermath, locating landslides quickly helps authorities direct resources to where they are most needed to save people and critical infrastructure. However, this information is often unavailable during an event response or is presented only for small regions, constraining the effectiveness of response efforts.

Robert Emberson↗

Impact fracture experiments simulating interstellar grain-grain collisions

Oxide and silicate grains condensing during the early phases of the formation of the solar system or in the outflow of stars are exposed to high partial pressures of the low-z elements H, C, N and O and their simple gaseous compounds. Though refractory minerals are nominally anhydrous and non-carbonate, if they crystallize in the presence of H2O, N2 and CO or CO2 gases, they dissolve traces of the gaseous components. The question arises: How does the presence of dissolved gases or gas components manifest itself when grain-grain collisions occur. What are the gases emitted when grains are shattered during a collision event. Researchers report on fracture experiments in ultrahigh vacuum (UHV, approximately less than 10 to the -8th power mbar) designed to measure (by means of a quadrupole mass spectrometer, QMS, with microns to ms time resolution) the emission of gases and vapors during and after impact (up to 1.5 sec). Two terrestrial materials were chosen which represent structural and compositional extremes: olivine (San Carlos, AZ), a densely packed Mg-Fe(2+) silicate from the upper mantle, available as 6 to 12 mm single crystals, and obsidian (Oregon), a structurally open, alkaline-SiO2-rich volcanic glass. In the olivine crystals OH- groups have been identified spectroscopically, as well as H2 molecules. Obsidian is a water-rich glass containing OH- besides H2O molecules. Olivine from the mantle often contains CO2, either as CO2-rich fluid in fluid inclusions or structurally dissolved or both. By analogy to synthetic glasses CO2 in the obsidian may be present in form of CO2 molecules in voids of molecular dimensions, or as carbonate anions, CO3(2-). No organic molecules have been detected spectroscopically in either material. Results indicate that refractory oxide/silicates which contain dissolved traces of the H2O and CO/CO2 components but no spectroscopically detectable traces of organics may release complex H-C-O (possibly H-C-N-O) molecules upon fracture, plus metal vapor. This points: (1) at complex reaction mechanisms between dissolved H2O, CO/CO2 (and N2) components within the mineral structure or during fracture, and (2) at the possibility that similar emission processes occur following grain-grain collisions in interstellar dust clouds.

Freund, Friedemann↗

Development of a Contingency Gas Analyzer for the Orion Crew Exploration Vehicle

NASA's experience with electrochemical sensors in a hand-held toxic gas monitor serves as a basis for the development of a fixed on-board instrument, the Contingency Gas Analyzer (CGA), for monitoring selected toxic combustion products as well as oxygen and carbon dioxide on the Orion Crew Exploration Vehicle (CEV). Oxygen and carbon dioxide are major components of the cabin environment and accurate measurement of these compounds is critical to maintaining a safe working environment for the crew. Fire or thermal degradation events may produce harmful levels of toxic products, including carbon monoxide (CO), hydrogen cyanide (HCN), and hydrogen chloride (HCl) in the environment. These three components, besides being toxic in their own right, can serve as surrogates for a panoply of hazardous combustion products. On orbit monitoring of these surrogates provides for crew health and safety by indicating the presence of toxic combustion products in the environment before, during and after combustion or thermal degradation events. Issues identified in previous NASA experiences mandate hardening the instrument and components to endure the mechanical and operational stresses of the CEV environment while maintaining high analytical fidelity. Specific functional challenges involve protecting the sensors from various anticipated events- such as rapid pressure changes, low cabin pressures, and extreme vibration/shock exposures- and extending the sensor lifetime and calibration periods far beyond the current state of the art to avoid the need for on-orbit calibration. This paper focuses on lessons learned from the earlier NASA hardware, current testing results, and engineering solutions to the identified problems. Of particular focus will be the means for protecting the sensors, addressing well known cross-sensitivity issues and the efficacy of a novel self monitoring mechanism for extending sensor calibration periods.

Niu, Bill↗

Ocean Carbon From Space: Current Status and Priorities for the Next Decade

The ocean plays a central role in modulating the Earth’s carbon cycle. Monitoring how the ocean carbon cycle is changing is fundamental to managing climate change. Satellite remote sensing is currently our best tool for viewing the ocean surface globally and systematically, at high spatial and temporal resolutions, and the past few decades have seen an exponential growth in studies utilising satellite data for ocean carbon research. Satellite-based observations must be combined with in-situ observations and models, to obtain a comprehensive view of ocean carbon pools and fluxes. To help prioritise future research in this area, a workshop was organised that assembled leading experts working on the topic, from around the world, including remote-sensing scientists, field scientists and modellers, with the goal to articulate a collective view of the current status of ocean carbon research, identify gaps in knowledge, and formulate a scientific roadmap for the next decade, with an emphasis on evaluating where satellite remote sensing may contribute. A total of 449 scientists and stakeholders participated (with balanced gender representation), from North and South America, Europe, Asia, Africa, and Oceania. Sessions targeted both inorganic and organic pools of carbon in the ocean, in both dissolved and particulate form, as well as major fluxes of carbon between reservoirs (e.g., primary production) and at interfaces (e.g., air-sea and land–ocean). Extreme events, blue carbon and carbon budgeting were also key topics discussed. Emerging priorities identified include: expanding the networks and quality of in-situ observations; improved satellite retrievals; improved uncertainty quantification; improved understanding of vertical distributions; integration with models; improved techniques to bridge spatial and temporal scales of the different data sources; and improved fundamental understanding of the ocean carbon cycle, and of the interactions among pools of carbon and light. We also report on priorities for the specific pools and fluxes studied, and highlight issues and concerns that arose during discussions, such as the need to consider the environmental impact of satellites or space activities; the role satellites can play in monitoring ocean carbon dioxide removal approaches; economic valuation of the satellite based information; to consider how satellites can contribute to monitoring cycles of other important climatically-relevant compounds and elements; to promote diversity and inclusivity in ocean carbon research; to bring together communities working on different aspects of planetary carbon; maximising use of international bodies; to follow an open science approach; to explore new and innovative ways to remotely monitor ocean carbon; and to harness quantum computing. Overall, this paper provides a comprehensive scientific roadmap for the next decade on how satellite remote sensing could help monitor the ocean carbon cycle, and its links to the other domains, such as terrestrial and atmosphere.

oceanography↗

The stability of the RNA bases: implications for the origin of life

High-temperature origin-of-life theories require that the components of the first genetic material are stable. We therefore have measured the half-lives for the decomposition of the nucleobases. They have been found to be short on the geologic time scale. At 100 degreesC, the growth temperatures of the hyperthermophiles, the half-lives are too short to allow for the adequate accumulation of these compounds (t1/2 for A and G approximately 1 yr; U = 12 yr; C = 19 days). Therefore, unless the origin of life took place extremely rapidly (<100 yr), we conclude that a high-temperature origin of life may be possible, but it cannot involve adenine, uracil, guanine, or cytosine. The rates of hydrolysis at 100 degreesC also suggest that an ocean-boiling asteroid impact would reset the prebiotic clock, requiring prebiotic synthetic processes to begin again. At 0 degreesC, A, U, G, and T appear to be sufficiently stable (t1/2 >/= 10(6) yr) to be involved in a low-temperature origin of life. However, the lack of stability of cytosine at 0 degreesC (t1/2 = 17, 000 yr) raises the possibility that the GC base pair may not have been used in the first genetic material unless life arose quickly (<10(6) yr) after a sterilization event. A two-letter code or an alternative base pair may have been used instead.

Non-NASA Center↗

Shoulder Postures in EVA Training in Reduced Gravity Analogues

Shoulder Postures in EVA Training in Reduced Gravity Analogues K. Guhl1, L. Vu2, H. Kim3, S. Rajulu4 1KBR Inc., Houston, TX, 2Aegis Aerospace Inc., Houston, TX, 3Leidos Innovations, Houston, TX, 4NASA Johnson Space Center, Houston, TX. During extravehicular activities (EVAs) and EVA training in both the Neutral Buoyancy Laboratory (NBL) and at the Active Response Gravity Offload System (ARGOS), crewmembers perform a variety of hand-intensive tasks with frequent arm/shoulder repositioning while wearing a pressurized spacesuit. As a result, crewmembers may experience ergonomic stressors such as awkward shoulder postures. The ergonomic shoulder risk is also compounded by limited or restricted shoulder mobility of the spacesuit, extreme work positions such as overhead tasks, and tasks with heavy tools and repetitive motions. Prolonged or frequent shoulder elevation and overhead work, in particular, can lead to excessive stresses and musculoskeletal injuries of the shoulder joints. Future EVA missions, specifically lunar surface EVAs, will also be longer in duration and thus increase the exposure to awkward shoulder postures. In this study, we aimed to assess the ergonomic risk of awkward shoulder postures in simulated lunar surface EVAs by quantifying when and how long the arms are raised above the chest level. We assessed video recordings of pilot lunar EVA simulations (3 lunar trials each in the NBL and at ARGOS and 2 microgravity EVA trials in the NBL). These runs consisted of both training and engineering test objectives. Actual demands for shoulder use varied for different EVA types and analogues, but many EVA runs have common tasks and require similar motion components. A video observation and event logging software was used to document the duration and occurrence of the subject’s arms being raised throughout the video recordings of each EVA run. An arm raised instance was classified as the arm being at 90 degrees or above with relation to gravity for lunar EVA training events and with relation to the body for microgravity EVA training events. Such events included EVA hardware maintenance or heavy geology sampling tool operations. Events where the arm load was partially supported by external objects, like climbing a ladder or leaning against a surface were separately identified and excluded. Statistical analysis was performed to summarize the timing, frequency, and durations of the arm raise events and compared across the different EVA tasks and analogue types. Preliminary observations indicated that the total duration and number of arm raised instances were surprisingly smaller for lunar surface EVA training as compared to microgravity EVA training. The observed difference may be attributed to differing task demands and unique environmental characteristics found in lunar EVAs in comparison to microgravity EVAs. A detailed statistical analysis will be performed between lunar surface EVA training events and microgravity EVA training events in the final submission. Overall, this analysis is expected to provide insight into how ergonomic recommendations can be refined for lunar EVA training with pressurized suits. It may also inform task design and influence suit padding design to better protect crewmembers during future lunar training.

Kaitlyn Lea Guhl↗

Flood Hazard Assessment from Storm Tides, Rain and Sea Level Rise for a Tidal River Estuary

Cities and towns along the tidal Hudson River are highly vulnerable to flooding through the combination of storm tides and high streamflows, compounded by sea level rise. Here a three-dimensional hydrodynamic model, validated by comparing peak water levels for 76 historical storms, is applied in a probabilistic flood hazard assessment. In simulations, the model merges streamflows and storm tides from tropical cyclones (TCs), offshore extratropical cyclones (ETCs) and inland "wet extratropical" cyclones (WETCs). The climatology of possible ETC and WETC storm events is represented by historical events (1931-2013), and simulations include gauged streamflows and inferred ungauged streamflows (based on watershed area) for the Hudson River and its tributaries. The TC climatology is created using a stochastic statistical model to represent a wider range of storms than is contained in the historical record. TC streamflow hydrographs are simulated for tributaries spaced along the Hudson, modeled as a function of TC attributes (storm track, sea surface temperature, maximum wind speed) using a statistical Bayesian approach. Results show WETCs are important to flood risk in the upper tidal river (e.g., Albany, New York), ETCs are important in the estuary (e.g., New York City) and lower tidal river, and TCs are important at all locations due to their potential for both high surge and extreme rainfall. The raising of floods by sea level rise is shown to be reduced by approximately 30-60 percent at Albany due to the dominance of streamflow for flood risk. This can be explained with simple channel flow dynamics, in which increased depth throughout the river reduces frictional resistance, thereby reducing the water level slope and the upriver water level.

Tidal river↗

Growth of Megaspherulites In a Rhyolitic Vitrophyre

Megaspherulites occur in the middle zone of a thick sequence of rhyolitic vitrophyre that occupies a small, late Eocene to early Oligocene volcanic-tectonic basin near Silver Cliff, Custer County, Colorado. Diameters of the megaspherulites range from 0.3 m to over 3.66 m, including a clay envelope. The megaspherulites are compound spherulites. consisting of an extremely large number (3.8 x 10(exp 9) to 9.9 x 10(exp 9)) of individual growth cones averaging 3 mm long by 1.25 mm wide at their termination. They are holocrystalline, very fine- to fine-grained, composed of disordered to ordered sanidine (orthoclase) and quartz, and surrounded by a thin K-feldspar, quartz rich rind, an inner clay layer with mordenite, and an outer clay layer composed wholly of 15 A montmorillonite. Whole rock analyses of the megaspherulites show a restricted composition from their core to their outer edge, with an average analyses of 76.3% SiO2, 0.34% CaO, 2.17% Na2O, 6.92% K2O, 0.83% H2O+ compared to the rhyolitic vitrophyre from which they crystallize with 71.07% SiO2, 0.57% CaO, 4.06% Na2O,4.l0% K2O, and 6.40% H2O+. The remaining oxides of Fe2O3 (total Fe), A12O3, MnO,MgO, TiO2, P2O5, Cr2O3, and trace elements show uniform distribution between the megaspherulites and the rhyolitic vitrophyre. Megaspherulite crystallization began soon after the rhyolitic lava ceased to flow as the result of sparse heterogeneous nucleation, under nonequilibrium conditions, due to a high degree of undercooling, delta T. The crystals grow with a fibrous habit which is favored by a large delta T ranging between 245 C and 295 C, despite lowered viscosity, and enhanced diffusion due to the high H2O content, ranging between 5% and 7%. Therefore, megaspherulite growth proceeded in a diffusion controlled manner, where the diffusion, rate lags behind the crystal growth rate at the crystal-liquid interface, restricting fibril lengths and diameters to the 10 micron to 15 micron and 3 micron and 8 micron ranges respectively. Once diffusion reestablishes itself at the crystallization front, a new nucleation event occurs at the terminated tips of the fibril cones and a new cone begins to develop with a similar orientation (small angle branching) to the earlier cones. During crystallization, these fibril cones impinge upon each other, resulting in fibril cone-free areas. These cone-free areas consist of coarser, fine-grained phases, dominated by quartz, which crystallized from the melt as it accumulated between the crystallizing K-feldspar fibrils of the cones. The anhydrous nature of the disordered to ordered sanidine (orthoclase) and quartz, suggests that water in the vitrophyre moved ahead of the crystallization front, resulting in a water rich fluid being enriched in Si, K, Na, Mg, Ca, Sr, Ba, and Y. The clay layers associated with the megaspherulites are therefore, the result of the deuteric alteration between the fractionated water and the vitrophyre, as indicated by the presence of the minerals mordenite and montmorillonite. This silica rich fluid also resulted in the total silicification of the megaspherulites within the upper 3 m of the vitrophyre.

Smith, Robert K.↗