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At least 19 records

A tri-level optimization model for interdependent infrastructure network resilience against compound hazard events

Resilient operation of interdependent infrastructures against compound hazard events is essential for maintaining societal well-being. To address consequence assessment challenges in this problem space, we propose a novel policy-guided tri-level optimization model applied to a proof-of-concept case study with fuel distribution and transportation networks – encompassing one realistic network; one fictitious, yet realistic network; as well as networks drawn from three synthetic distributions. Mathematically, our approach takes the form of a defender-attacker-defender (DAD) model—a multi-agent tri-level optimization, comprised of a defender, attacker, and an operator acting in sequence. Here, in this study, our notional operator may choose proxy actions to operate an interdependent system comprised of fuel terminals and gas stations (functioning as supplies) and a transportation network with traffic flow (functioning as demand) to minimize unmet demand at gas stations. A notional attacker aims to hypothetically disrupt normal operations by reducing supply at the supply terminals, and the notional defender aims to identify best proxy defense policy options which include hardening supply terminals or allowing alternative distribution methods such as trucking reserve supplies. We solve our DAD formulation at a metropolitan scale and present practical defense policy insights against hypothetical compound hazards. We demonstrate the generalizability of our framework by presenting results for a realistic network; a fictitious, yet realistic network; as well as for three networks drawn from synthetic distributions. Additionally, we demonstrate the scalability of the framework by investigating runtime performance as a function of the network size. Steps for future research are also discussed.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS

The critical role of soil moisture in compound hazards

Soil moisture regulates the exchange of energy, water, and carbon across land–vegetation–atmosphere interfaces. Extremes in soil moisture can amplify natural hazards through interactions with diverse Earth system processes. Despite its mechanistic importance, soil moisture remains underrepresented in hazard research and predictive frameworks. Here, in this study, we review our current understanding of the role of soil moisture in the evolution and onset of diverse compound hazards by synthesizing the latest findings from observational and modelling studies. We highlight key soil moisture mechanisms, including atmospheric feedbacks that amplify drought–heatwave–wildfire events, precipitation couplings that promote clustered storms, and threshold responses that drive vegetation die-offs, trigger landslides, and induce flooding. Persistent challenges in observational data, model representation and operational implementation have limited the integration of soil moisture into hazard early-warning systems. Addressing these gaps through advances in observations, data assimilation, and physics-based and data-driven modelling will enhance hazard prediction and preparedness in a rapidly changing world.

Li, Chuxuan [University of California, Los Angeles

NASA’s Mid-Atlantic Communities and Areas at Intensive Risk Demonstration: Translating Compounding Hazards to Societal Risk

Remote sensing provides a unique perspective on our dynamic planet, tracking changes and revealing the course of complex interactions. Long term monitoring and targeted observation combine with modeling and mapping to provide increased awareness of hydro-meteorological and geological hazards. Disasters often follow hazards and the goal of NASA’s Disasters Program is to look at the earth as a highly coupled system to reduce risk and enable resilience. Remote sensing and geospatial science are used as tools to help answer critical questions that inform decisions. Data is not the same as information, nor does understanding of processes necessarily translate into decision support for disaster preparedness, response and recovery. Accordingly, NASA is engaging the scientific and decision-support communities to apply remote sensing, modeling, and related applications in Communities and Areas at Intensive Risk (CAIR). In 2017, NASA’s Applied Sciences Disasters Program hosted a regional workshop to explore these issues with particular focus on coastal Virginia and North Carolina. The workshop brought together partners in academia, emergency management, and scientists from NASA and partnering federal agencies to explore capabilities among the team that could improve understanding of the physical processes related to these hazards, their potential impact to changing communities, and to identify methodologies for supporting emergency response and risk mitigation. The resulting initiative, the mid-Atlantic CAIR project, demonstrates the ability to integrate satellite derived earth observations and physical models into actionable, trusted knowledge. Severe storms and associated storm surge, sea level rise, and land subsidence coupled with increasing populations and densely populated, aging critical infrastructure often leave coastal regions and their communities extremely vulnerable. The integration of observations and models allow for a comprehensive understanding of the compounding risk experienced in coastal regions and enables individuals in all positions make risk-informed decisions. This initiative uses a representative storm surge case as a baseline to produce flood inundation maps. These maps predict building level impacts at current day and for sea level rise (SLR) and subsidence scenarios of the future in order to inform critical decisions at both the tactical and strategic levels. To accomplish this analysis, the mid-Atlantic CAIR project brings together Federal research activities with academia to examine coastal hazards in multiple ways: 1) reanalysis of impacts from 2011 Hurricane Irene, using numerical weather modeling in combination with coastal surge and hydrodynamic, urban inundation modeling to evaluate combined impact scenarios considering SLR and subsidence, 2) remote sensing of flood extent from available optical imagery, 3) adding value to remotely sensed flood maps through depth predictions, and 4) examining coastal subsidence as measured through time-series analysis of synthetic aperture radar observations. Efforts and results are published via ArcGIS story maps to communicate neighborhoods and infrastructure most vulnerable to changing conditions. Story map features enable time-aware flood mapping using hydrodynamic models, photographic comparison of flooding following Hurricane Irene, as well as visualization of heightened risk in the future due to SLR and land subsidence.

Rogers, Laura

Advanced Environmental Monitoring and Control Program: Strategic Plan

Human missions in space, from short-duration shuttle missions lasting no more than several days to the medium-to-long-duration missions planned for the International Space Station, face a number of hazards that must be understood and mitigated for the mission to be carried out safely. Among these hazards are those posed by the internal environment of the spacecraft itself; through outgassing of toxic vapors from plastics and other items, failures or off-nominal operations of spacecraft environmental control systems, accidental exposure to hazardous compounds used in experiments: all present potential hazards that while small, may accumulate and pose a danger to crew health. The first step toward mitigating the dangers of these hazards is understanding the internal environment of the spacecraft and the compounds contained within it. Future spacecraft will have integrated networks of redundant sensors which will not only inform the crew of hazards, but will pinpoint the problem location and, through analysis by intelligent systems, recommend and even implement a course of action to stop the problem. This strategic plan details strategies to determine NASA's requirements for environmental monitoring and control systems for future spacecraft, and goals and objectives for a program to answer these needs.

Schmidt, Gregory

From Ensemble Climate to Ensemble Impacts

Many climate-risk tools rely on ensemble mean projections or endpoint climate snapshots to characterize future hazards. Although convenient for communication, these representations remove the statistical, temporal, and physical information that real infrastructure systems respond to. Infrastructure degradation and failure arise from extremes, sequences, cumulative stress, compound hazards, and nonlinear fragility relationships, none of which survive ensemble averaging or temporal compression. Power-system failure statistics and cascading failure models further show that infrastructure risk is dominated by tail events and path-dependent dynamics rather than by mean conditions. This paper demonstrates why ensemble mean or endpoint-only climate representations are mathematically and physically inconsistent with engineering-grade risk analysis. We outline a model-resolved, time-series-based workflow that preserves extremes, variability, and sequencing by propagating each climate-model realization independently through hazard formation, exposure, fragility, and cascading failure mechanisms. Taking the ensemble of impacts—rather than the ensemble of climate—provides a defensible, physically coherent foundation for infrastructure resilience planning, regulatory compliance, and long-term investment decisions.

54 - ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES/GLOBAL CLIMATE CHANGE

Critical Knowledge Gaps for Coastal Systems: Research Priorities for Coastal Regions of the Southeastern United States

Coastal watersheds and shorelines are home to 52% of the U.S. population and provide trillions of dollars of economic and ecosystem services each year. However, these regions are subject to increasing frequency and intensity of compounding hazards that generate substantial damages. Sea level rise is increasing flooding and salinization of low-lying areas; periodic storm surges push ocean water farther inland and increase salinity in freshwater resources. Changing weather patterns, water management, and land cover all affect water and sediment flow to the coast in ways that exacerbate extreme flooding and drought. These impacts eventually drive systems past tipping points and lead to rapid and often irreversible transformation.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES

A Combustion Products Analyzer for contingency use during thermodegradation events on spacecraft

This paper will describe the Combustion Products Analyzer (CPA), which is being developed under the direction of the Toxicology Laboratory at Johnson Space Center to provide necessary data on air quality in the Shuttle following a thermodegradation incident. Using separate electrochemical sensors, the CPA monitors four gases (hydrogen fluoride/carbonyl fluoride, hydrogen chloride, hydrogen cyanide, and carbon monoxide), which were selected as the most hazardous compounds likely to be released during thermodegradation of synthetic materials. Electrochemical sensors have been available for several years; the CPA sensors, which are unique because of their small size and zero-gravity compatibility, will be described in detail.

Limero, Thomas

A combustion products analyzer for contingency use during thermodegradation events on spacecraft

The Toxicology Laboratory at JSC and Exidyne Instrumentation Technologies (EIT) have developed a prototype Combustion Products Analyzer (CPA) to monitor, in real time, combustion products from a thermodegradation event on board spacecraft. The CPA monitors the four gases that are the most hazardous compounds (based on the toxicity potential and quantity produced) likely to be released during thermodegradation of synthetic materials: hydrogen fluoride (HF), hydrogen chloride (HCl), hydrogen cyanide (HCN), and carbon monoxide (CO). The levels of these compounds serve as markers to assist toxicologists in determining when the cabin atmosphere is safe for the crew to breathe following the contingency event. The CPA is a hand-held, battery-operated instrument containing four electrochemical sensors, one for each target gas, and a pump for drawing air across the sensors. The sensors are unique in their small size and zero-g compatibility. The immobilized electrolytes in each sensor permit the instrument to function in space and eliminate the possibility of electrolye leaks. The sample inlet system is equipped with a particulate filter that prevents clogging from airborne particulate matter. The CPA has a large digital display for gas concentrations and warming signals for low flow and low battery conditions. The CPA has flown on 13 missions beginning with STS 41 in Oct. 1990. Current efforts include the development of a microprocessor, an improved carbon monoxide sensor, and a ground-based test program to evaluate the CPA during actual thermodegradation of selected materials.

Wilson, Steve

Histogrammatic Method for Determining Relative Abundance of Input Gas Pulse

To satisfy the Major Constituents Analysis (MCA) requirements for the Vehicle Cabin Atmosphere Monitor (VCAM), this software analyzes the relative abundance ratios for N2, O2, Ar, and CO2 as a function of time and constructs their best-estimate mean. A histogram is first built of all abundance ratios for each of the species vs time. The abundance peaks corresponding to the intended measurement and any obfuscating background are then separated via standard peak-finding techniques in histogram space. A voting scheme is then used to include/exclude this particular time sample in the final average based on its membership to the intended measurement or the background population. This results in a robust and reasonable estimate of the abundance of trace components such as CO2 and Ar even in the presence of obfuscating backgrounds internal to the VCAM device. VCAM can provide a means for monitoring the air within the enclosed environments, such as the ISS (International Space Station), Crew Exploration Vehicle (CEV), a Lunar Habitat, or another vehicle traveling to Mars. Its miniature pre-concentrator, gas chromatograph (GC), and mass spectrometer can provide unbiased detection of a large number of organic species as well as MCA analysis. VCAM s software can identify the concentration of trace chemicals and whether the chemicals are on a targeted list of hazardous compounds. This innovation s performance and reliability on orbit, along with the ground team s assessment of its raw data and analysis results, will validate its technology for future use and development.

Mandrake, Lukas

Five-Channel Infrared Laser Absorption Spectrometer for Combustion Product Monitoring Aboard Manned Spacecraft

Continuous combustion product monitoring aboard manned spacecraft can prevent chronic exposure to hazardous compounds and also provides early detection of combustion events. As future missions extend beyond low-Earth orbit, analysis of returned environmental samples becomes impractical and safety monitoring should be performed in situ. Here, we describe initial designs of a five-channel tunable laser absorption spectrometer to continuously monitor combustion products with the goal of minimal maintenance and calibration over long-duration missions. The instrument incorporates dedicated laser channels to simultaneously target strong mid-infrared absorption lines of CO, HCl, HCN, HF, and CO2. The availability of low-power-consumption semiconductor lasers operating in the 2 to 5 micron wavelength range affords the flexibility to select absorption lines for each gas with maximum interaction strength and minimal interference from other gases, which enables the design of a compact and mechanically robust spectrometer with low-level sensitivity. In this paper, we focus primarily on absorption line selection based on the availability of low-power single-mode semiconductor laser sources designed specifically for the target wavelength range.

Briggs, Ryan M.

Increased flood exposure in the Pacific Northwest following earthquake-driven subsidence and sea-level rise

Climate-driven sea-level rise is increasing the frequency of coastal flooding worldwide, exacerbated locally by factors like land subsidence from groundwater and resource extraction. However, a process rarely considered in future sea-level rise scenarios is sudden (over minutes) land subsidence associated with great (>M8) earthquakes, which can exceed 1 m. Along the Washington, Oregon, and northern California coasts, the next great Cascadia subduction zone earthquake could cause up to 2 m of sudden coastal subsidence, dramatically raising sea level, expanding floodplains, and increasing the flood risk to local communities. Here, we quantify the potential expansion of the 1% floodplain (i.e., the area with an annual flood risk of 1%) under low (~0.5 m), medium (~1 m), and high (~2 m) earthquake-driven subsidence scenarios at 24 Cascadia estuaries. If a great earthquake occurred today, floodplains could expand by 90 km 2 (low), 160 km 2 (medium), or 300 km 2 (high subsidence), more than doubling the flooding exposure of residents, structures, and roads under the high subsidence scenario. By 2100, when climate-driven sea-level rise will compound the hazard, a great earthquake could expand floodplains by 170 km 2 (low), 240 km 2 (medium), or 370 km 2 (high subsidence), more than tripling the flooding exposure of residents, structures, and roads under the high subsidence scenario compared to the 2023 floodplain. Our findings can support decision-makers and coastal communities along the Cascadia subduction zone as they prepare for compound hazards from the earthquake cycle and climate-driven sea-level rise and provide critical insights for tectonically active coastlines globally.

Science & Technology - Other Topics

Off-line Tests of the DM1200 Thermal Catalytic Oxidation (TCO) Unit (Final Report)

The River Protection Project-Waste Treatment Plant (RPP-WTP) Low-Activity Waste (LAW) and High-Level Waste (HLW) feed streams are listed for a variety of hazardous organic compounds. The permitting basis for the WTP systems may necessitate the demonstration of minimum Destruction/Removal Efficiencies (DREs) of such species from any released emissions of up to 99.99%. Results from a previous study on the fate of hazardous organics in the melter itself indicated, not only that DREs for selected test compounds approached 99.99% only at extreme melter conditions, but also that organic compounds not originally present in the feed were actually produced in the melter, In order to ensure that the required DREs for hazardous organics are met, Thermal Catalytic Oxidation (TCO) units were therefore added to both the HLW and LAW off-gas treatment systems, The extent to which these species can be destroyed or removed in the TCO units is therefore an important issue in the design and permitting of the LAW and HLW off-gas treatment systems. A further consideration is that it would be desirable, if possible, to be able to achieve all of the required DRE across the TCO alone. If that is not the case, the DRE would be distributed across several unit operations, which may then become subject to additional operational constraints that may reduce process flexibility. Compliance with the DRE requirements on the basis of the TCO unit alone is also an approach that lends itself to periodic confirmation during operations, since the TCO is located at the back-end of the off-gas treatment system where radioactivity levels are lowest.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W

Mapping Rare Earths and Toxics in E-Waste via Hyperspectral Imaging and Machine Learning

Electronic waste (e-waste) presents a mounting challenge to environmental sustainability due to its complex composition, which includes high-value rare earth elements, hazardous organic compounds, and non-recyclable plastics. Accurate and scalable material classification is essential for enabling efficient resource recovery and safe recycling practices. This study introduces a confidence-aware classification pipeline that combines mid-infrared hyperspectral imaging (HSI), spectral angle mapping (SAM), and iterative machine learning to perform pixel-level material identification across e-waste devices. A curated spectral library encompassing artificial materials (e.g., plastic iron oxide, galvanized metals), minerals (e.g., allanite, hematite), and organic compounds (e.g., benzanthracene, toluene) was used to generate pseudo-labels, each assigned a confidence score based on SAM-derived spectral similarity. High-confidence samples from seven consumer electronics—digital cameras, keyboards, laptop fans, modems, motherboards, TV remotes, and speakers—were iteratively expanded and classified using models such as Support Vector Machine (SVM), Random Forest, Gradient Boosting Classifier, Partial Least Squares Discriminant Analysis (PLSDA) and Logistic Regression. The best-performing classifiers achieved macro F1 scores approaching 1.0. Results revealed widespread plastic content (dominated by plastic iron oxide), the presence of rare earth-bearing minerals like cerium-containing allanite, and pervasive detection of hazardous organics such as benzanthracene. Principal Component Analysis (PCA) visualizations and confusion matrices confirmed high separability and robust classification performance. This methodology enables precise, non-destructive, and scalable classification of heterogeneous e-waste streams. It supports automated, hazard-aware sorting in recycling workflows, facilitating selective recovery of critical materials and compliance with circular economy goals. The confidence-aware framework provides a foundation for real-time deployment in industrial settings, offering significant implications for smart e-recycling infrastructure and policy-driven material stewardship.

Circular economy

Native Fluorescence Detection Methods and Detectors for Naphthalene and/or Other Volatile Organic Compound Vapors

Naphthalene, benzene, toluene, xylene, and other volatile organic compounds have been identified as serious health hazards. This is especially true for personnel working with JP8 jet fuel and other fuels containing naphthalene as well as other hazardous volatile organic compounds (VOCs). Embodiments of the invention are directed to methods and apparatus for near-real-time in-situ detection and accumulated dose measurement of exposure to naphthalene vapor and other hazardous gaseous VOCs. The methods and apparatus employ excitation of fluorophors native or endogenous to compounds of interest using light sources emitting in the ultraviolet below 300 nm and measurement of native fluorescence emissions in distinct wavebands above the excitation wavelength. The apparatus of some embodiments are cell-phone-sized sensor/dosimeter "badges" to be worn by personnel potentially exposed to naphthalene or other hazardous VOCs. The badge sensor of some embodiments provides both real time detection and data logging of exposure to naphthalene or other VOCs of interest from which both instantaneous and accumulated dose can be determined. The badges employ a new native fluorescence based detection method to identify and differentiate VOCs. The particular focus of some embodiments are the detection and identification of naphthalene while other embodiments are directed to detection and identification of other VOCs like aromatic hydrocarbons such as benzene, toluene, and xylene.

Hug, William F.

Extreme flood return levels in a U.S. mid-Atlantic estuary using 40-year fluvial-coastal model simulations

Using an integrated watershed-coastal modeling framework, we conducted long-term historical simulations (1980-2019) of fluvial and coastal flooding in the Delaware Bay and River, a vulnerable estuarine system in the U.S., at high spatial resolutions. By applying process-based models, we generated physically consistent and spatially detailed estimates of estuarine, riverine, and surge-driven extreme water level compared to previous studies that used field data only. We then evaluated changes in the magnitude of flood events using the 40-year simulations and detrended Floodwater Depth values with stationary extreme value analysis. Our detailed assessment of spatial-varying extreme values revealed how different flood-generation mechanisms can dominate various zones in the estuary. The datasets produced through this work will be valuable for long-term flood hazard mitigation planning in coastal communities in the Delaware Bay and River region. Additionally, this work will serve as a benchmark for other coastal flood hazard modeling communities worldwide, aiding them in systematically modeling long-term and continuous extreme flood events.

Coastal and Riverine Flooding

Longer Life for Steel Structures

IC 531 is a coating manufactured and marketed by Inorganic Coatings, Inc. The coating was developed by Goddard to protect structures at Kennedy Space Center. It is a high ratio potassium silicate formula. The coating is water based, nontoxic, and nonflammable. It generates no volatile organic compounds nor hazardous chemical waste, and bonds to steel in 30 minutes. At the present time, no one can say for sure how long IC 531's effective lifetime is. Some of the original Goddard test applications of 1976 are still going strong after lengthy exposure to the Sun, salt and moisture. Says IC in company literature: 'IC 531 offers virtually permanent protection for steel. We predict it will protect structures for well beyond 25 years. If necessary, it is infinitely maintainable; if damaged, it can easily be touched up with more IC 531.'

Source record

Environmentally-driven Materials Obsolescence: Material Replacements and Lessons Learned from NASA's Space Shuttle Program

The Space Shuttle Program was terminated in 2011 with the last flight of the Shuttle Endeavour. During the 30 years of its operating history, the number of domestic and international environmental regulations increased rapidly and resulted in materials obsolescence risks to the program. Initial replacement efforts focused on ozone depleting substances. As pressure from environmental regulations increased, Shuttle worked on the replacement of heavy metals. volatile organic compounds and hazardous air pollutants. Near the end of the program. Shuttle identified potential material obsolescence driven by international regulations and the potential for suppliers to reformulate materials. During the Shuttle Program a team focused on environmentally-driven materials obsolescence worked to identify and mitigate these risks. Lessons learned from the Shuttle experience can be applied to new NASA Programs as well as other high reliability applications.

Meinhold, Anne

A Five-year Performance Study of Low VOC Coatings over Zinc Thermal Spray for the Protection of Carbon Steel at the Kennedy Space Center

The launch facilities at the Kennedy Space Center (KSC) are located approximately 1000 feet from the Atlantic Ocean where they are exposed to salt deposits, high humidity, high UV degradation, and acidic exhaust from solid rocket boosters. These assets are constructed from carbon steel, which requires a suitable coating to provide long-term protection to reduce corrosion and its associated costs. While currently used coating systems provide excellent corrosion control performance, they are subject to occupational, safety, and environmental regulations at the Federal and State levels that limit their use. Many contain high volatile organic compounds (VOCs), hazardous air pollutants, and other hazardous materials. Hazardous waste from coating operations include vacuum filters, zinc dust, hazardous paint related material, and solid paint. There are also worker safety issues such as exposure to solvents and isocyanates. To address these issues, top-coated thermal spray zinc coating systems were investigated as a promising environmentally friendly corrosion protection for carbon steel in an acidic launch environment. Additional benefits of the combined coating system include a long service life, cathodic protection to the substrate, no volatile contaminants, and high service temperatures. This paper reports the results of a performance based study to evaluate low VOC topcoats (for thermal spray zinc coatings) on carbon steel for use in a space launch environment.

Zinc Thermal Spray