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Results for “Computationally efficient surrogate modeling”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 19 records
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2024

Uncertainty Quantification of Fatigue Behavior of Rough AM Surfaces and Microstructures to Enable Hydrogen Gas Turbine

Modifying fossil-fueled industrial gas turbines to utilize low or zero-carbon fuels, such as hydrogen or hydrogen-natural gas blends, is a complex endeavor. The successful implementation of this technology hinges on three key design criteria: (1) developing new fuel injectors capable of efficiently burning alternative fuels, (2) ensuring manufacturability to meet cost and time-to-market goals, and (3) achieving component durability in the demanding environment of an operating gas turbine. Additive manufacturing (AM) accelerates product development, yet concerns persist regarding the durability of parts with rough AM surfaces. A fully experimental approach to quantify the fatigue performance of rough AM microstructures is both costly and labor-intensive. To address this, ORNL and Solar Turbines Incorporated (Solar) employed a crystal plasticity finite element (CPFE) model to identify the factors influencing AM surface fatigue behavior. These CPFE findings, combined with targeted experimental data, were used to develop a computationally efficient surrogate model suitable for assessing the lifespan of gas turbine engine components.

08 HYDROGEN↗
DOE OSTI2024

Uncertainty Quantification of Fatigue Behavior of Rough AM Surfaces and Microstructures to Enable Hydrogen Gas Turbine Combustion

Modification of fossil-fueled industrial gas turbines to accept no/low carbon fuels (Hydrogen, H2/natural gas blends) is a significant undertaking. Successful deployment of this technology sits at the intersection of three design criteria (1) new functional fuel injectors that can burn these fuels, (2) manufacturability to meet cost and time-to-market targets, and (3) durability in the harsh environment of an operating turbine. Additive manufacturing (AM) provides accelerated product development. However, uncertainty remains around the durability of parts with rough AM surfaces. A fully experimental approach towards quantifying fatigue performance of rough AM microstructures is costly and laborious. Instead, Solar Turbines Incorporated (Solar) proposes the use of a crystal plasticity finite element (CPFE) model to quantify the factors that drive AM surface fatigue behavior. Solar will use the CPFE results, along with targeted experimental data, to train a computationally efficient surrogate model that can be incorporated into existing turbine part lifing methods.

08 HYDROGEN↗
DOE OSTI2025

Intelligent Surrogate Model Development: Boosting Computational Efficiency for Autonomous Control of Advanced Reactors

Advanced reactors promise enhanced safety, greater efficiency, and waste reductions. To fully realize these benefits, it is crucial to address the need for autonomous or semi-autonomous control systems that require fewer operators. This research primarily supports the MARVEL autonomous control system, which requires real-time operation. However, the current RELAP5 reactor thermal hydraulic transient simulation is excessively time-consuming. Therefore, this study aims to leverage deep learning techniques to develop a surrogate model, providing a more efficient and accurate alternative for real-time performance. The model was trained using a combination of one-timestep prediction and scheduled sampling. It was then used for recursive prediction of the reactor state. This developed surrogate model significantly improves computational efficiency, achieving a 12 times acceleration.

46 - INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AN↗
DOE OSTI2025

Examples of Mission-driven Data Science from Jefferson Lab and ACES

This presentation details mission-driven data science initiatives at Jefferson Lab and the Joint Institute for Advanced Computing on Environmental Studies (ACES). JLab, a U.S. Department of Energy Office of Science national laboratory, operates the Continuous Electron Beam Accelerator Facility (CEBAF), and is the lead institute for the new High Performance Data Facility (HPDF) Hub. The Joint Institute for ACES brings together interdisciplinary teams in health informatics, climate modeling, computer science, and physics to address environmental challenges, including flood modeling. The Hampton Roads region, particularly Norfolk and Virginia Beach, faces increasing flood risks, motivating the need for rapid, reliable, and risk-aware decision support. ACES’s flooding work has a focus on uncertainty quantification (UQ) and machine learning (ML) for coastal flood management. The work is motivated by the increasing vulnerability of communities such as Norfolk and Virginia Beach, Virginia, to frequent coastal flooding events, and the need for rapid, reliable decision support. The research develops computationally efficient ML surrogate models to forecast water levels and flooding risk. A central theme is the quantification and calibration of predictive uncertainty, especially for out-of-distribution (OOD) scenarios, using techniques such as Monte Carlo Dropout, Deep Ensembles, Gaussian Processes, and Deep Quantile Regression (DQR). The study demonstrates that distance-aware UQ is critical for reliable scientific AI, particularly in high-dimensional, safety-critical, and real-time applications.

McSpadden, Diana [Thomas Jefferson National Accele↗
DOE OSTI2024

Convolutional L2LFlows: generating accurate showers in highly granular calorimeters using convolutional normalizing flows

Abstract In the quest to build generative surrogate models as computationally efficient alternatives to rule-based simulations, the quality of the generated samples remains a crucial frontier. So far, normalizing flows have been among the models with the best fidelity. However, as the latent space in such models is required to have the same dimensionality as the data space, scaling up normalizing flows to high dimensional datasets is not straightforward. The prior L2LFlows approach successfully used a series of separate normalizing flows and sequence of conditioning steps to circumvent this problem. In this work, we extend L2LFlows to simulate showers with a 9-times larger profile in the lateral direction. To achieve this, we introduce convolutional layers and U-Net-type connections, move from masked autoregressive flows to coupling layers, and demonstrate the successful modelling of showers in the ILD Electromagnetic Calorimeter as well as Dataset 3 from the public CaloChallenge dataset.

Instruments & Instrumentation↗
DOE OSTI2025

Micromechanical Surrogate Machine Learning Model for Creep Deformation Modeling

Process variability during the manufacture of gas turbine engine hot section components can significantly affect the material’s resulting microstructure. In casting, for instance, geometric variation within a component (thin sections versus thick sections, radial location) influences cooling rates and the resulting grain size. The high temperature creep response is known to be sensitive to grain size owing to a diffusional creep mechanism which occurs more readily along grain boundaries. Microstructural variation correspondingly drives mechanical behavior which propagates into component scale performance uncertainty. These factors are essential when planning inspection, maintenance, and repair strategies within a reliability framework. These benefits provide opportunities to increase overall energy efficiency through refined margins. Critically, there is an opportunity to bolster existing data-driven reliability models using physics-driven process-structure-property relations. Here we present recent work establishing a framework for evaluating the probabilistic creep performance of high-temperature materials. A novel microstructure-sensitive crystal plasticity finite element model is established that captures both grain boundary and crystallographic deformation effects. The computationally expensive physics model is calibrated using a statistical approach and this high-fidelity model is subsequently used to train a computationally efficient machine learning surrogate model. The surrogate model is essential for sampling a large ensemble of simulated structure-property pair results. The ensemble data are then mined to extract salient trends to be incorporated into a microstructure-sensitive reliability model. The proposed approach represents a novel way to capture microstructure-sensitive trends from physics-based models within a modern reliability framework.

Fernandez-Zelaia, Patxi [ORNL]↗
DOE OSTI2025

A comparison of surrogate constitutive models for viscoplastic creep simulation of HT-9 steel

Mechanistic microstructure-informed constitutive models for the mechanical response of polycrystals are a cornerstone of computational materials science. However, as these models become increasingly more complex – often involving coupled differential equations describing the effect of specific deformation modes – their associated computational costs can become prohibitive, particularly in optimization or uncertainty quantification tasks that require numerous model evaluations. To address this challenge, surrogate constitutive models that balance accuracy and computational efficiency are highly desirable. Data-driven surrogate models, that learn the constitutive relation directly from data, have emerged as a promising solution. In this work, we develop two local surrogate models for the viscoplastic response of a steel: a piecewise response surface method and a mixture of experts model. These surrogates are designed to adapt to complex material behavior, which may vary with material parameters or operating conditions. The surrogate constitutive models are applied to creep simulations of HT-9 steel, an alloy of considerable interest to the nuclear energy sector due to its high tolerance to radiation damage, using training data generated from viscoplastic self-consistent (VPSC) simulations. In conclusion, we define a set of test metrics to numerically assess the accuracy of our surrogate models for predicting viscoplastic material behavior, and show that the mixture of experts model outperforms the piecewise response surface method in terms of accuracy.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2026

The high explosives & affected targets (HEAT) dataset

Artificial Intelligence (AI) surrogate models offer a computationally efficient alternative to full-physics simulations, yet no existing datasets are publicly available for training, testing, and validation of machine learning models of the dynamics of high-explosive driven shocks through multiple materials. Shock propagation through materials is a computationally challenging problem because simulations must include material-specific equations of state (EOS) along with descriptions of other physical processes such as plastic deformation, phase change, damage processes, fluid instabilities, and multi-material interactions. Shocks are typically initiated by high-velocity impacts or explosive loading. The latter case necessitates the addition of models of reactive materials to represent high-explosive (HE) detonation. Here, to address the lack of an expansive dataset for multi-material shock propagation in the AI/ML community, we present the High-Explosives and Affected Targets (HEAT) Dataset. HEAT is a physics-rich collection of two-dimensional, cylindrically symmetric, simulations generated using an Eulerian, multi-material, shock-propagation code developed at Los Alamos National Laboratory. The dataset includes two partitions: (1) the expanding shock-cylinder (CYL) simulations, Figs. 1, and (2) the Perturbed Layered Interface (PLI) simulations, Fig. 2. Entries in both partitions consist of time series of arrays of thermodynamic fields (pressure, density, and temperature), kinematic fields (position and velocity), and additional fields that depend on thermodynamic and/or kinematic fields (e.g., material stress). Materials in the CYL partition include solids (aluminium, copper, depleted uranium, stainless steel, tantalum, and a generic polymer), a liquid (water), gases (air, nitrogen), and a generic detonating material (high explosive, HE). The PLI partition spans a highly varying geometry but consists of fixed materials across entries: Copper, aluminium, stainless steel, generic polymer, and generic HE. HEAT captures critical phenomena such as momentum transfer, shock propagation, plastic deformation, and thermal effects, making HEAT a valuable benchmark for development of AI/ML emulation of multi-material shock propagation.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2026

Spherical tokamak physics research in preparation for the operation of NSTX-U

The National Spherical Torus Experiment Upgrade (NSTX-U) is preparing to resume operation, representing a crucial step toward realizing compact, cost-effective fusion pilot plants. In advance of this, extensive modeling and data analysis have been conducted to advance the physics basis for low-aspect-ratio, high-performance plasma regimes, focusing on three core objectives: confinement and stability, power and particle handling, and steady-state operation. Significant progress has been made in understanding the electron temperature flattening in high-β plasmas, which is shown to be driven by a complex interplay of magnetohydrodynamic instabilities (e.g. non-resonant infernal modes), fast-ion-driven Alfvén eigenmodes, and electron and ion-scale micro-instabilities, particularly Kinetic Ballooning Modes (KBMs), whose destabilization is strongly dependent on parallel magnetic field fluctuations (δB ∥ ). Furthermore, a new gyrokinetic critical pedestal model was developed, accurately predicting pedestal structure by identifying KBMs as the primary stability limit, offering a critical constraint for future high-confinement scenarios. To address the challenge of high heat flux, novel liquid lithium plasma-facing components were modeled. The analysis confirmed that lithium vapor shielding is a self-regulating mechanism for heat mitigation, while also emphasizing that strong main ion parallel flow is essential to minimize core lithium contamination. Finally, progress toward steady-state operation was anchored by developing the required physics basis and control tools. This includes predictive modeling for reversed magnetic shear sustainment, demonstrating that magnetic island-induced bootstrap current reduction is negligible in STs, and advancing real-time control and disruption avoidance capabilities. The development of high-speed surrogate models (e.g. MMMNet) provides computationally efficient tools vital for non-inductive scenario optimization and integrated, low-disruptivity operations planned for NSTX-U.

NSTX-U↗
DOE OSTI2026

Stochastic Thermo-Hydro Modeling and Neural Network Surrogate Development for Thermal Resource Assessment of the Galleries-to-Calories Geobattery

The Galleries-to-Calories Geobattery concept explores the use of abandoned coal mine workings for large-scale thermal energy transport and storage. The system involves injecting waste heat from a supercomputing facility into flooded mine galleries, where groundwater flow can store and transport thermal energy for potential recovery in downgradient district heating and cooling applications. To evaluate the feasibility and performance of the Geobattery under geological and operational uncertainty, we developed a suite of stochastic thermo-hydrological (TH) simulations using Monte Carlo sampling of key uncertain parameters (e.g., permeability, porosity, thermal conductivity, specific heat capacity) and operating conditions (e.g., injection rate, injection temperature). Results identified injection rate and temperature as the most influential parameters governing thermal front propagation, while the geometry of the room-and-pillar structure played a critical role in directing the extent and orientation of thermal advancement. Optimal combinations of material properties for maximizing heat recovery were also determined. To address the high computational cost of coupled-process stochastic modeling, we trained a neural network surrogate model on 24,000 physics-based realizations, achieving an R² > 0.99 and MAE < 0.1 for temperature predictions at monitoring locations. This surrogate enabled an additional 100,000 realizations for global sensitivity analysis and probabilistic thermal resource assessment. The integrated stochastic physics–surrogate modeling framework offers a computationally efficient tool for quantifying uncertainty, identifying key drivers, and informing early-stage design decisions for Geobattery systems.

15 - GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2024

Efficient mapping between void shapes and stress fields using Deep Convolutional Neural Networks with sparse data

Establishing fast and accurate structure-to-property relationships is an important component in the design and discovery of advanced materials. Physics-based simulation models like the finite element method (FEM) are often used to predict deformation, stress, and strain fields as a function of material microstructure in material and structural systems. Such models may be computationally expensive and time intensive if the underlying physics of the system is complex. This limits their application to solve inverse design problems and identify structures that maximize performance. In such scenarios, surrogate models are employed to make the forward mapping computationally efficient to evaluate. However, the high dimensionality of the input microstructure and the output field of interest often renders such surrogate models inefficient, especially when dealing with sparse data. Deep convolutional neural network (CNN) based surrogate models have shown great promise in handling such high-dimensional problems. In this paper, a single ellipsoidal void structure under a uniaxial tensile load represented by a linear elastic, high-dimensional and expensive-to-query, FEM model. We consider two deep CNN architectures, a modified convolutional autoencoder framework with a fully connected bottleneck and a UNet CNN, and compare their accuracy in predicting the von Mises stress field for any given input void shape in the FEM model. Additionally, a sensitivity analysis study is performed using the two approaches, where the variation in the prediction accuracy on unseen test data is studied through numerical experiments by varying the number of training samples from 20 to 100.

surrogate modeling; convolutional neural networks;↗
DOE OSTI2024

Data-driven Quasi-static Surrogate Models for Nuclear-powered Integrated Energy Systems

The integration of nuclear power into energy systems presents a promising avenue to address the growing global energy demands while minimizing greenhouse gas emissions. In this paper, we introduce a data-driven quasi-static surrogate model for nuclear-powered Integrated Energy Systems (IES) that comprises various components, including a small modular reactor (SMR), steam manifold, balance of plant (BOP), high-temperature steam electrolysis (HTSE), and district heating (DH) system. Traditional physics-based models for these components often entail significant computational resource and time consumption, necessitating the development of efficient surrogate models. The development of a complete surrogate model for the IES involves the creation of individual surrogate models for each component, leveraging machine learning techniques and simulated data. These isolated surrogate models are subsequently integrated, enabling a holistic view of the IES and reducing the computational burden associated with detailed physics-based simulations. This paper outlines the development process, validation, and the performance evaluation of the surrogate models. The exceptional performance, with low root-mean-squared errors and R-squared scores of at least 99.8% across all individual surrogate models, underscores their accuracy and practical applicability. These results demonstrate the potential of these models to expedite the analysis of nuclear-powered IES, offering insights that can shape future research and development efforts.

08 HYDROGEN↗
DOE OSTI2024

Data-driven Quasi-static Surrogate Model for Nuclear-powered Integrated Energy Systems

The integration of nuclear power into energy systems presents a promising avenue to address the growing global energy demands while minimizing greenhouse gas emissions. In this paper, we introduce a data-driven quasi-static surrogate model for nuclear-powered Integrated Energy Systems (IES) that comprises various components, including a small modular reactor (SMR), energy manifold (EM), balance of plant (BOP), high-temperature steam electrolysis (HTSE), and district heating (DH) system. Traditional physics-based models for these components often entail significant computational overhead and time consumption, necessitating the development of efficient surrogate models. The development of a complete surrogate model for the IES involves the creation of individual surrogate models for each component, leveraging machine learning techniques and simulated data. These isolated surrogate models are subsequently integrated, enabling a holistic view of the IES and reducing the computational burden associated with detailed physics-based simulations. This paper outlines the development process, validation, and the performance evaluation of the surrogate models. The findings shed light on the accuracy and applicability of the surrogate models in practical scenarios, demonstrating their potential to expedite the analysis of nuclear-powered IES and inform future research and development efforts.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
DOE OSTI2025

Deep Learning for Subsurface Flow: A Comparative Study of U‐Net, Fourier Neural Operators, and Transformers in Underground Hydrogen Storage

Subsurface flow research is essential for the sustainable management of natural resources and the environment. Deep learning (DL) has significantly advanced this field by developing efficient and accurate surrogate models to replace computationally expensive physics‐based simulations. These surrogate models are commonly used to predict the spatiotemporal evolution of state variables, such as gas saturation and reservoir pressure, in heterogeneous geological formations. Despite the various DL models applied to this task, there is a lack of studies systematically comparing their performance. This absence of comparative analysis leads to somewhat arbitrary DL model selection in subsurface flow research, resulting in suboptimal performance and potentially inaccurate predictions. To bridge this gap, we conduct a systematic comparison study of three popular DL architectures—U‐Net, Fourier Neural Operators (FNO), and Segmentation Transformer (SETR)—in surrogate modeling of underground hydrogen storage (UHS). We focus on UHS due to its promise of enhancing clean energy resilience and its cyclic operational conditions that represent common scenarios in various subsurface applications. We evaluate the models based on accuracy, training cost, and inference speed. The comparison shows that U‐Net achieves the highest accuracy, followed by SETR and FNO. Despite its lower accuracy, FNO has the highest inference speed. SETR offers competitive accuracy with the least training memory usage, demonstrating the potential of transformers in learning subsurface flow. Our results provide guidance for selecting DL models for surrogate modeling in a wide range of subsurface flow problems.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2024

Coarse-graining Hamiltonian systems using WSINDy

Abstract Weak form equation learning and surrogate modeling has proven to be computationally efficient and robust to measurement noise in a wide range of applications including ODE, PDE, and SDE discovery, as well as in coarse-graining applications, such as homogenization and mean-field descriptions of interacting particle systems. In this work we extend this coarse-graining capability to the setting of Hamiltonian dynamics which possess approximate symmetries associated with timescale separation. A smooth $$\varepsilon$$ ε -dependent Hamiltonian vector field $$X_\varepsilon$$ X ε possesses an approximate symmetry if the limiting vector field $$X_0=\lim _{\varepsilon \rightarrow 0}X_\varepsilon$$ X 0 = lim ε → 0 X ε possesses an exact symmetry. Such approximate symmetries often lead to the existence of a Hamiltonian system of reduced dimension that may be used to efficiently capture the dynamics of the symmetry-invariant dependent variables. Deriving such reduced systems, or approximating them numerically, is an ongoing challenge. We demonstrate that WSINDy can successfully identify this reduced Hamiltonian system in the presence of large perturbations imparted in the $$\varepsilon >0$$ ε > 0 regime, while remaining robust to extrinsic noise. This is significant in part due to the nontrivial means by which such systems are derived analytically. WSINDy naturally preserves the Hamiltonian structure by restricting to a trial basis of Hamiltonian vector fields. The methodology is computationally efficient, often requiring only a single trajectory to learn the global reduced Hamiltonian, and avoiding forward solves in the learning process. In this way, we argue that weak-form equation learning is particularly well-suited for Hamiltonian coarse-graining. Using nearly-periodic Hamiltonian systems as a prototypical class of systems with approximate symmetries, we show that WSINDy robustly identifies the correct leading-order system, with dimension reduced by at least two, upon observation of the relevant degrees of freedom. While our main contribution is computational, we also provide a contribution to the literature on averaging theory by proving that first-order averaging at the level of vector fields preserves Hamiltonian structure in nearly-periodic Hamiltonian systems. This provides theoretical justification for our approach as WSINDy’s computations occur at the level of Hamiltonian vector fields. We illustrate the efficacy of our proposed method using physically relevant examples, including coupled oscillator dynamics, the Hénon–Heiles system for stellar motion within a galaxy, and the dynamics of charged particles.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2025

Physics-Informed Machine Learning Model for Ceramic Matrix Composite Creep

A physics-informed recurrent neural network (RNN) based surrogate model is developed to emulate the nonlinear, time-dependent constitutive behavior of ceramic matrix composites (CMCs) driven by matrix damage and constituent creep at the microscale. Physics-informed constraints are introduced into the surrogate model through regularization to ground the prediction in physics and improve its predictive capabilities. Training data is generated using the high-fidelity generalized method of cells (HFGMC) approach which calls appropriate creep and damage models for each of the constituents. This coupling permits simulating the nonlinear behavior of CMCs based on constituent response at the microscale along with microstructural features such as fiber and porosity volume fraction and fiber radius. The microscale repeating unit cell is loaded under creep fatigue conditions to replicate the material loading experienced in a turbine engine. Therefore, the RNN-based surrogate model is tasked with predicting, as a function of variable input stress sequence, temperature, and microstructural features, the resulting strain history response while satisfying physical constraints related to creep rate, isochoric inelastic deformation, and strain energy density. The trained surrogate model is shown to effectively match the strain history over quantified distributions of microstructural features and relevant loading regimes and temperatures. Neural network based surrogate models can offer efficient alternatives to running computationally intensive multiscale material models to simulate the nonlinear response of large structural models. Therefore, the presented work provides evidence towards the feasibility of developing, training, and running such models for CMCs with complex microstructures, nonlinear time-dependent material response, and under non-monotonic loading conditions.

ceramic matrix composites↗
DOE OSTI2025

Surrogate modeling and optimization of the leaching process in a rare earth elements recovery plant

Critical minerals (CMs) and Rare Earth Elements (REEs) play a vital role in crucial infrastructure technologies such as renewable energy generation and batteries. Recovering them from waste materials has recently been found to significantly reduce environmental impact and supply chain costs related to these materials. In this work, we investigate surrogate modeling techniques aimed to simplify the modeling, simulation, and optimization of the leaching processes involved in CM and REE recovery flowsheets. As there is currently a lack of systematic studies on this topic, we perform extensive computational testing to ascertain which surrogate models are easier to construct and offer high predictive accuracy. Further, our results suggest that sparse quadratic models balance predictive accuracy and computational efficiency. Training and using these surrogates for global optimization of the leaching process requires two orders of magnitude fewer measurements and is up to four orders of magnitude faster than optimizing the original simulation using equation-oriented optimization or derivative-free optimization.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗