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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 19 records
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2025

Asymmetric errors

We present a procedure for handling asymmetric errors. Many results in particle physics are presented as values with different positive and negative errors, and there is no consistent procedure for handling them. We consider the difference between errors quoted, using pdfs and using likelihoods, and the difference between the rms spread of a measurement and the 68% central confidence region. We provide a comprehensive analysis of the possibilities, and software tools to enable their use.

Asymmetric↗
DOE OSTI2025

Informed total-error-minimizing priors: Interpretable cosmological parameter constraints despite complex nuisance effects

While Bayesian inference techniques are standard in cosmological analyses, it is common to interpret resulting parameter constraints with a frequentist intuition. This intuition can fail, for example, when marginalizing high-dimensional parameter spaces onto subsets of parameters, because of what has come to be known as projection effects or prior volume effects. We present the method of informed total-error-minimizing (ITEM) priors to address this problem. An ITEM prior is a prior distribution on a set of nuisance parameters, such as those describing astrophysical or calibration systematics, intended to enforce the validity of a frequentist interpretation of the posterior constraints derived for a set of target parameters (e.g., cosmological parameters). Our method works as follows. For a set of plausible nuisance realizations, we generate target parameter posteriors using several different candidate priors for the nuisance parameters. We reject candidate priors that do not accomplish the minimum requirements of bias (of point estimates) and coverage (of confidence regions among a set of noisy realizations of the data) for the target parameters on one or more of the plausible nuisance realizations. Of the priors that survive this cut, we select the ITEM prior as the one that minimizes the total error of the marginalized posteriors of the target parameters. As a proof of concept, we applied our method to the density split statistics measured in Dark Energy Survey Year 1 data. We demonstrate that the ITEM priors substantially reduce prior volume effects that otherwise arise and that they allow for sharpened yet robust constraints on the parameters of interest.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2024

Measurement of C P asymmetries in B 0 → K S 0 K S 0 K S 0 decays at Belle II

We report a measurement of decay-time-dependent charge-parity ( C P ) asymmetries in B 0 → K S 0 K S 0 K S 0 decays. We use 387 × 10 6 B B ¯ pairs collected at the ϒ ( 4 S ) resonance with the Belle II detector at the SuperKEKB asymmetric-energy electron-positron collider. We reconstruct 220 signal events and extract the C P -violating parameters S and C from a fit to the distribution of the decay-time difference between the two B mesons. The resulting confidence region is consistent with previous measurements in B 0 → K S 0 K S 0 K S 0 and B 0 → ( c c ¯ ) K 0 decays and with predictions based on the standard model. Published by the American Physical Society 2024

Astronomy & Astrophysics↗
DOE OSTI2024

Photoproduction of K + K − Pairs in Ultraperipheral Collisions

K + K − pairs may be produced in photonuclear collisions, either from the decays of photoproduced ϕ ( 1020 ) mesons or directly as nonresonant K + K − pairs. Measurements of K + K − photoproduction probe the couplings between the ϕ ( 1020 ) and charged kaons with photons and nuclear targets. The kaon-proton scattering occurs at energies far above those available elsewhere. We present the first measurement of coherent photoproduction of K + K − pairs on lead ions in ultraperipheral collisions using the ALICE detector, including the first investigation of direct K + K − production. There is significant K + K − production at low transverse momentum, consistent with coherent photoproduction on lead targets. In the mass range 1.1 < M K K < 1.4 GeV / c 2 above the ϕ ( 1020 ) resonance, for rapidity | y K K | < 0.8 and p T , K K < 0.1 GeV / c , the measured coherent photoproduction cross section is d σ / d y = 3.37 ± 0.61 ( stat ) ± 0.15 ( syst ) mb . The center-of-mass energy per nucleon of the photon-nucleus (Pb) system W γ Pb , n ranges from 33 to 188 GeV, far higher than previous measurements on heavy-nucleus targets. The cross section is larger than expected for ϕ ( 1020 ) photoproduction alone. The mass spectrum is fit to a cocktail consisting of ϕ ( 1020 ) decays, direct K + K − photoproduction, and interference between the two. The confidence regions for the amplitude and relative phase angle for direct K + K − photoproduction are presented. © 2024 CERN, for the ALICE Collaboration 2024 CERN

43 PARTICLE ACCELERATORS↗
DOE OSTI2024

Variance-Reduced Accelerated First-Order Methods: Central Limit Theorems and Confidence Statements

In this paper, we consider a strongly convex stochastic optimization problem and propose three classes of variable sample-size stochastic first-order methods: (i) the standard stochastic gradient descent method, (ii) its accelerated variant, and (iii) the stochastic heavy-ball method. In each scheme, the exact gradients are approximated by averaging across an increasing batch size of sampled gradients. We prove that when the sample size increases at a geometric rate, the generated estimates converge in mean to the optimal solution at an analogous geometric rate for schemes (i)–(iii). Based on this result, we provide central limit statements, whereby it is shown that the rescaled estimation errors converge in distribution to a normal distribution with the associated covariance matrix dependent on the Hessian matrix, the covariance of the gradient noise, and the step length. If the sample size increases at a polynomial rate, we show that the estimation errors decay at a corresponding polynomial rate and establish the associated central limit theorems (CLTs). Under certain conditions, we discuss how both the algorithms and the associated limit theorems may be extended to constrained and nonsmooth regimes. As a result, we provide an avenue to construct confidence regions for the optimal solution based on the established CLTs and test the theoretical findings on a stochastic parameter estimation problem.

Lei, Jinlong↗
DOE OSTI2025

Interpretable machine learning models classify minerals via spectroscopy

Developing methods to identify mineral species confidently and rapidly from Raman spectral analysis is critical to numerous fields. Traditionally, analysis relies on pattern matching the Raman spectrum of an unknown dataset with a supporting library of well-characterized spectral data, which may prove difficult for environmental samples that are poorly crystalline or phase mixtures. Here, we developed interpretable machine learning models that can classify uranium minerals by secondary oxyanion chemistry and other physicochemical properties based solely on Raman spectra. This new ML method produces a mineral profile of physical and chemical properties for an unknown sample and can rapidly classify or identify unknown minerals from Raman data, without the need for an exact pattern match in a spectral library. Training models are validated by 1. Strong correlation of high confidence model regions with published spectroscopic assignments and 2. Correct classification of a mineral not present in training data. Training data are from the Compendium of Uranium Raman and Infrared Experimental Spectra and available crystallographic information files within the open-source Smart Spectral Matching scientific framework. Physically meaningful classifier models can rapidly identify key structural and chemical information about unknown uranium minerals and the overall methodology is broadly applicable for mineral phases.

Machine learning↗
DOE OSTI2025

Cloud Feedback Uncertainty in the Equatorial Pacific Across CMIP6 Models

Cloud feedback is the largest uncertainty in estimating Equilibrium Climate Sensitivity. In this study we focus on the equatorial Pacific, where CMIP6 model cloud feedback spread is notably large. Cloud radiative effects in this region are relevant for the global climate. Our findings show that models predict a consistent shift towards the ascent regime in response to El Nino-like sea surface warming. Models diverge in terms of the radiative impact due to differences in cloud characteristics in ascent and subsidence regimes. Using the observed relationship between circulation regime and cloud radiative effect, we find a reduction in the regional mean cloud feedback estimate from 0.77 to 0.22 W m -2 K -1 , though this does not substantially lessen the model spread in total feedback. Pathways to reduce this spread include: improving confidence in the regional ocean warming pattern, and using observations and models to understand cloud type and circulation interactions.

CMIP6↗
DOE OSTI2024

The key role of forest disturbance in reconciling estimates of the northern carbon sink

Northern forests are an important carbon sink, but our understanding of the driving factors is limited due to discrepancies between dynamic global vegetation models (DGVMs) and atmospheric inversions. We show that DGVMs simulate a 50% lower sink (1.1 ± 0.5 PgC yr –1 over 2001–2021) across North America, Europe, Russia, and China compared to atmospheric inversions (2.2 ± 0.6 PgC yr –1 ). We explain why DGVMs underestimate the carbon sink by considering how they represent disturbance processes, specifically the overestimation of fire emissions, and the lack of robust forest demography resulting in lower forest regrowth rates than observed. We reconcile net sink estimates by using alternative disturbance-related fluxes. We estimate carbon uptake through forest regrowth by combining satellite-derived forest age and biomass maps. We calculate a regrowth flux of 1.1 ± 0.1 PgC yr –1 , and combine this with satellite-derived estimates of fire emissions (0.4 ± 0.1 PgC yr –1 ), land-use change emissions from bookkeeping models (0.9 ± 0.2 PgC yr –1 ), and the DGVM-estimated sink from CO 2 fertilisation, nitrogen deposition, and climate change (2.2 ± 0.9 PgC yr –1 ). The resulting ‘bottom-up’ net flux of 2.1 ± 0.9 PgC yr –1 agrees with atmospheric inversions. The reconciliation holds at regional scales, increasing confidence in our results.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Evaluating probabilistic deep learning methods for uncertainty quantification of temperature downscaling

Deep learning (DL) has emerged as a promising tool for downscaling coarse-resolution climate data to high-resolution outputs, enabling improved regional climate predictions. A critical aspect of DL-based downscaling is the incorporation of uncertainty quantification (UQ), which enhances the interpretability and reliability of predictions—key factors for climate risk assessment and decision-making. This study develops a DL model to downscale 2 m temperature across the contiguous United States using reanalysis datasets. We systematically evaluate three epistemic UQ methods—deep ensembles (DEns), Monte Carlo dropout (MCD), and Flipout—based on their probabilistic accuracy, downscaling performance, sensitivity to geographical features, and computational efficiency. Results indicate that MCD generally outperforms Flipout and DEns in terms of calibration and downscaling accuracy. However, DEns demonstrate lower calibration errors in coastal regions, indicating its higher confidence within these areas. Flipout, in contrast, is more sensitive to elevation gradients and exhibits higher calibration errors in mountainous regions. Hence, the choice of UQ method for this task depends on the specific requirements of the application. For applications that prioritize overall calibration, downscaling accuracy, and computational efficiency, MCD is a strong candidate. These findings highlight the importance of selecting UQ methods based on application-specific requirements, such as geographical context and computational constraints. By addressing the trade-offs between UQ methods, this study provides actionable insights for improving the reliability, scalability, and utility of DL-based downscaling in climate science.

Environmental sciences↗
DOE OSTI2025

Dual-Baseline Search for Active-to-Sterile Neutrino Oscillations in NOvA

We report a search for neutrino oscillations to sterile neutrinos under a model with three active and one sterile neutrinos (3+1 model). This analysis uses the NOvA detectors exposed to the NuMI beam, running in neutrino mode. The data exposure, 13.6 × 10 20 protons on target, doubles that previously analyzed by NOvA, and the analysis is the first to use 𝜈 𝜇 charged-current interactions in conjunction with neutral-current interactions. Neutrino samples in the near and far detectors are fitted simultaneously, enabling the search to be carried out over a Δ⁢𝑚$^{2}_{41}$ range extending 2 (3) orders of magnitude above (below) 1 eV 2 . NOvA finds no evidence for active-to-sterile neutrino oscillations under the 3+1 model at 90% confidence level. New limits are reported in multiple regions of parameter space, excluding some regions currently allowed by IceCube at 90% confidence level. We additionally set the most stringent limits for anomalous 𝜈 𝜏 appearance for Δ⁢𝑚$^{2}_{41}$ ≤ 3 eV 2 .

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗
DOE OSTI2024

Search for a Sub-eV Sterile Neutrino Using Daya Bay’s Full Dataset

This Letter presents results of a search for the mixing of a sub-eV sterile neutrino with three active neutrinos based on the full data sample of the Daya Bay Reactor Neutrino Experiment, collected during 3158 days of detector operation, which contains 5.55 × 106 reactor $\overline{v}$ e candidates identified as inverse beta-decay interactions followed by neutron capture on gadolinium. The analysis benefits from a doubling of the statistics of our previous result and from improvements of several important systematic uncertainties. No significant oscillation due to mixing of a sub-eV sterile neutrino with active neutrinos was found. Exclusion limits are set by both Feldman-Cousins and CLs methods. Light sterile neutrino mixing with sin 2⁡ 2⁢θ 14 ≳ 0.01 can be excluded at 95% confidence level in the region of 0.01 eV 2 ≲ |Δ⁢$m$$^{2}_{41}$| ≲ 0.1 eV 2 . This result represents the world-leading constraints in the region of 2 × 10 –4 eV 2 ≲ |Δ⁢$m$$^{2}_{41}$| ≲ 0.2 eV 2 .

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗
DOE OSTI2024

Nonphotochemical quenching kinetics GWAS in sorghum identifies genes that may play conserved roles in maize and Arabidopsis thaliana photoprotection

SUMMARY Photosynthetic organisms must cope with rapid fluctuations in light intensity. Nonphotochemical quenching (NPQ) enables the dissipation of excess light energy as heat under high light conditions, whereas its relaxation under low light maximizes photosynthetic productivity. We quantified variation in NPQ kinetics across a large sorghum ( Sorghum bicolor ) association panel in four environments, uncovering significant genetic control for NPQ. A genome‐wide association study (GWAS) confidently identified three unique regions in the sorghum genome associated with NPQ and suggestive associations in an additional 61 regions. We detected strong signals from the sorghum ortholog of Arabidopsis thaliana Suppressor Of Variegation 3 ( SVR3 ) involved in plastid–nucleus signaling. By integrating GWAS results for NPQ across maize ( Zea mays ) and sorghum‐association panels, we identified a second gene, Non‐yellowing 1 ( NYE1 ), originally studied by Gregor Mendel in pea ( Pisum sativum ) and involved in the degradation of photosynthetic pigments in light‐harvesting complexes. Analysis of nye1 insertion alleles in A. thaliana confirmed the effect of this gene on NPQ kinetics in eudicots. We extended our comparative genomics GWAS framework across the entire maize and sorghum genomes, identifying four additional loci involved in NPQ kinetics. These results provide a baseline for increasing the accuracy and speed of candidate gene identification for GWAS in species with high linkage disequilibrium.

Plant Sciences↗
DOE OSTI2024

Search for Neutral Heavy Scalars in ttZ Events Using 13 TeV pp Collisions at CMS

This thesis presents a search for a heavy pseudoscalar particle, A, which decays into a lighterscalar, H, and a Z boson within the Two-Higgs-Doublet Model (2HDM). We focus on Zboson decays to leptons, with H decays into a t t ̄ pair. The search uses the Asimov dataset–a theoretical dataset generated to predict the expected results for discovery and exclusion based on conditions from proton-proton collisions at the LHC, atintegrated luminosity of 138f b−1, as recorded by the CMS detector. The analysis focuses on events with three charged leptons, two of which come from the Z boson decay and one from a top quark decay. The expected results suggest the search has high sensitivity, showing discovery potential across much of the 2HDM Type-II parameter space, with possible deviations from the Standard Model background exceeding 5σ significance. The search sets upper limits on the cross-section times branching ratio, assuming narrow particle widths, for A masses up to 2100 GeV and H masses up to 1900 GeV. The results are interpreted in the 2HDM Type-II framework to exclude certain regions of parameter space at the 95% confidence level as a function of particle masses and variables such as tanβ and cos(β−α). The findings highlight the potential reach implications of future search in this parameter region.

Rudrabhatla, Sahithi [Illinois U., Chicago]↗
DOE OSTI2025

New Constraints on Axionlike Particles with the NEON Detector at a Nuclear Reactor

We report new constraints on axionlike particles (ALPs) using data from the NEON experiment, which features 16.7 kg of NaI(Tl) target located 23.7 m from a 2.8 GW thermal power nuclear reactor. Analyzing a total exposure of 3063 kg · day , with 1596 kg · day during reactor-on and 1467 kg · day during reactor-off periods, we compared energy spectra to search for ALP-induced signals. No significant signal was observed, enabling us to set exclusion limits at the 95% confidence level. These limits probe previously unexplored regions of the ALP parameter space, particularly for axion masses ( m a ) near 1 MeV / c 2 . For ALP-photon coupling ( g a γ ), limits reach as low as 6.24 × 10 − 6 GeV − 1 at m a = 3.0 MeV / c 2 , while for ALP-electron coupling ( g a e ), limits reach 4.95 × 10 − 8 at m a = 1.02 MeV / c 2 . This Letter demonstrates the potential for future reactor experiments to probe unexplored ALP parameter space. Published by the American Physical Society 2025

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗
DOE OSTI2025

Final Search for Short-Baseline Neutrino Oscillations with the PROSPECT-I Detector at HFIR

The PROSPECT experiment is designed to perform precise searches for antineutrino disappearance at short distances (7–9 m) from compact nuclear reactor cores. This Letter reports results from a new neutrino oscillation analysis performed using the complete data sample from the PROSPECT-I detector operated at the High Flux Isotope Reactor in 2018. The analysis uses a multiperiod selection of inverse beta decay neutrino interactions with reduced backgrounds and enhanced statistical power to set limits on electron neutrino disappearance caused by mixing with sterile neutrinos with 0.2–20 eV 2 mass splittings. Inverse beta decay positron energy spectra from six different reactor-detector distance ranges are found to be statistically consistent with one another, as would be expected in the absence of sterile neutrino oscillations. The data excludes at 95% confidence level the existence of sterile neutrinos in regions above 3 eV 2 previously unexplored by terrestrial experiments, including all space below 10 eV 2 suggested by the recently strengthened Gallium Anomaly. The best-fit point of the Neutrino-4 reactor experiment’s claimed observation of short-baseline oscillation is ruled out at more than 5 standard deviations.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗
DOE OSTI2024

Searching for Strongly-Interacting Dark Matter with the Heavy Photon Search Experiment

The Heavy Photon Search Experiment (HPS) is a fixed-target experiment at Jefferson Lab’s Hall B, designed to explore a hidden sector (HS) of particles containing dark matter and a new force mediator known as the “heavy photon” (A'). The A' is a massive spin-1 gauge boson associated with a new U (1)D symmetry in the HS that kinetically mixes with the Standard Model () photon with a weak coupling strength parameterized by ¿, with ¿2 ~ 10-2 -10-10. HPS utilizes a high-intensity electron beam on a thin tungsten target to produce heavy photons in the MeV-GeV mass range via “dark bremsstrahlung,” a process analogous to SM bremsstrahlung but suppressed by ¿2. The A' can decay resonantly to SM leptons, allowing HPS to conduct both mass resonance searches for prompt decays (large ¿) and displaced vertex searches for long-lived particles (small ¿). In addition to the minimal A' model, HPS probes more complex extensions such as the QCD-like strongly-interacting massive particles (SIMPs) HS containing “dark” pions (pD) and vector mesons (VD), with pD as dark matter candidates. These particles introduce new thermal dark matter freeze- out scenarios and visible signals through long-lived VD decays to SM leptons, which are accessible to HPS. This analysis conducted a displaced vertex search for VD ¿ e-e+ in the mass range 30 MeV to 124 MeV and ¿ between 10-6 < ¿ < 10-2 using data from the 2016 Engineering Run (10.753 nb-1) at 2.3 GeV. Unlike the minimal A' search, SIMP signal kinematics required new approaches to signal normalization and SM background rejection. The strongest signal evidence was a local p-value of 0.01317 for mVD = 119 MeV, corresponding to a global significance of 0.9s. Although no signal was found, this search excluded a region of the SIMP parameter space at 90 % confidence. This work demonstrates HPS’s competitive capability to probe SIMP sectors within cosmologically significant parameters and introduces a new method for HPS displaced vertex searches using track vertical impact parameter cuts

Spellman, Alic [Univ. of California, Santa Cruz, C↗
DOE OSTI2024

Search for the rare decay of charmed baryon Λ c + into the p μ + μ − final state

A search for the nonresonant Λ c + → p μ + μ − decay is performed using proton-proton collision data recorded at a center-of-mass energy of 13 TeV by the LHCb experiment, corresponding to an integrated luminosity of 5.4 fb − 1 . No evidence for the decay is found in the dimuon invariant-mass regions where the expected contributions of resonances is subdominant. The upper limit on the branching fraction of the Λ c + → p μ + μ − decay is determined to be 2.9 ( 3.2 ) × 10 − 8 at 90 % ( 95 % ) confidence level. The branching fractions in the dimuon invariant-mass regions dominated by the η , ρ and ω resonances are also determined. © 2024 CERN, for the LHCb Collaboration 2024 CERN

Aaij, R. (ORCID:0000000305331952)↗
DOE OSTI2024

Assessing decision boundaries under uncertainty

In order to make design decisions, engineers may seek to identify regions of the design domain that are acceptable in a computationally efficient manner. A design is typically considered acceptable if its reliability with respect to parametric uncertainty exceeds the designer’s desired level of confidence. Despite major advancements in reliability estimation and in design classification via decision boundary estimation, the current literature still lacks a design classification strategy that incorporates parametric uncertainty and desired design confidence. To address this gap, this paper offers a novel interpretation of the acceptance region by defining the decision boundary as the hypersurface which isolates the designs that exceed a user-defined level of confidence given parametric uncertainty. This work addresses the construction of this novel decision boundary using computationally efficient algorithms that were developed for reliability analysis and decision boundary estimation. The approach proposed in this paper is verified on two physical examples from structural and thermal analysis using Support Vector Machines and Efficient Global Optimization-based contour estimation.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗