Conformal prediction for astronomy data with measurement error
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Naomi Singer↗
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A Comparison of Metamodeling Techniques via Numerical Experiments
This paper presents a comparative analysis of a few metamodeling techniques using numerical experiments for the single input-single output case. These experiments enable comparing the models' predictions with the phenomenon they are aiming to describe as more data is made available. These techniques include (i) prediction intervals associated with a least squares parameter estimate, (ii) Bayesian credible intervals, (iii) Gaussian process models, and (iv) interval predictor models. Aspects being compared are computational complexity, accuracy (i.e., the degree to which the resulting prediction conforms to the actual Data Generating Mechanism), reliability (i.e., the probability that new observations will fall inside the predicted interval), sensitivity to outliers, extrapolation properties, ease of use, and asymptotic behavior. The numerical experiments describe typical application scenarios that challenge the underlying assumptions supporting most metamodeling techniques.
Crespo, Luis G.↗
Regulation of body fluid volume and electrolyte concentrations in spaceflight
Despite a number of difficulties in performing experiments during weightlessness, a great deal of information has been obtained concerning the effects of spaceflight on the regulation of body fluid and electrolytes. Many paradoxes and questions remain, however. Although body mass, extracellular fluid volume, and plasma volume are reduced during spaceflight and remain so at landing, the changes in total body water are comparatively small. Serum or plasma sodium and osmolality have generally been unchanged or reduced during the spaceflight, and fluid intake is substantially reduced, especially during the first of flight. The diuresis that was predicted to be caused by weightlessness, has only rarely been observed as an increased urine volume. What has been well established by now, is the occurrence of a relative diuresis, where fluid intake decreases more than urine volume does. Urinary excretion of electrolytes has been variable during spaceflight, but retention of fluid and electrolytes at landing has been consistently observed. The glomerular filtration rate was significantly elevated during the SLS missions, and water and electrolyte loading tests have indicated that renal function is altered during readaptation to Earth's gravity. Endocrine control of fluid volumes and electrolyte concentrations may be altered during weightlessness, but levels of hormones in body fluids do not conform to predictions based on early hypotheses. Antidiuretic hormone is not suppressed, though its level is highly variable and its secretion may be affected by space motion sickness and environmental factors. Plasma renin activity and aldosterone are generally elevated at landing, consistent with sodium retention, but inflight levels have been variable. Salt intake may be an important factor influencing the levels of these hormones. The circadian rhythm of cortisol has undoubtedly contributed to its variability, and little is known yet about the influence of spaceflight on circadian rhythms. Atrial natriuretic peptide does not seem to play an important role in the control of natriuresis during spaceflight. Inflight activity of the sympathetic nervous system, assessed by measuring catecholamines and their metabolites and precursors in body fluids, generally seems to be no greater than on Earth, but this system is usually activated at landing. Collaborative experiments on the Mir and the International Space Station should provide more of the data needed from long-term flights, and perhaps help to resolve some of the discrepancies between U.S. and Russian data. The use of alternative methods that are easier to execute during spaceflight, such as collection of saliva instead of blood and urine, should permit more thorough study of circadian rhythms and rapid hormone changes in weightlessness. More investigations of dietary intake of fluid and electrolytes must be performed to understand regulatory processes. Additional hormones that may participate in these processes, such as other natriuretic hormones, should be determined during and after spaceflight. Alterations in body fluid volume and blood electrolyte concentrations during spaceflight have important consequences for readaptation to the 1-G environment. The current assessment of fluid and electrolyte status during weightlessness and at landing and our still incomplete understanding of the processes of adaptation to weightlessness and readaptation to Earth's gravity have resulted in the development of countermeasures that are only partly successful in reducing the postflight orthostatic intolerance experienced by astronauts and cosmonauts. More complete knowledge of these processes can be expected to produce countermeasures that are even more successful, as well as expand our comprehension of the range of adaptability of human physiologic processes.
NASA Discipline Number 18-10↗
Development of IR radiation simulator for spacecraft thermal testing
The aim was to simulate, in a ground test, the solar radiation environment to which the Ofeq satellite would be exposed in orbit. The solar simulator usually used is very expensive, as are its operation and maintenance, therefore an infrared (IR) simulator was used; its development involved the creation of uniform IR fluxes onto the irregular geometry of a spacecraft. The tests were carried out on a thermal model of the satellite and the model was verified in a solar simulator test at a European space center. Heat flux mapping software was developed to plan the positioning of the heating elements which generated the IR fluxes and a system was built for heat flux and temperature monitoring and control. A special heat flux sensor was developed to measure the energy absorbed by the satellite surfaces; its calibration had to be independent of wavelength, so that the measurements obtained at IR wavelengths would be equivalent to the actual solar radiation effects. The results of the verification experiment are presented; their conformity with predicted values indicates that the technique developed is a suitable tool for satellite design verification.
Shimrony, Yoram↗
Finding the global minimum: a fuzzy end elimination implementation
The 'fuzzy end elimination theorem' (FEE) is a mathematically proven theorem that identifies rotameric states in proteins which are incompatible with the global minimum energy conformation. While implementing the FEE we noticed two different aspects that directly affected the final results at convergence. First, the identification of a single dead-ending rotameric state can trigger a 'domino effect' that initiates the identification of additional rotameric states which become dead-ending. A recursive check for dead-ending rotameric states is therefore necessary every time a dead-ending rotameric state is identified. It is shown that, if the recursive check is omitted, it is possible to miss the identification of some dead-ending rotameric states causing a premature termination of the elimination process. Second, we examined the effects of removing dead-ending rotameric states from further considerations at different moments of time. Two different methods of rotameric state removal were examined for an order dependence. In one case, each rotamer found to be incompatible with the global minimum energy conformation was removed immediately following its identification. In the other, dead-ending rotamers were marked for deletion but retained during the search, so that they influenced the evaluation of other rotameric states. When the search was completed, all marked rotamers were removed simultaneously. In addition, to expand further the usefulness of the FEE, a novel method is presented that allows for further reduction in the remaining set of conformations at the FEE convergence. In this method, called a tree-based search, each dead-ending pair of rotamers which does not lead to the direct removal of either rotameric state is used to reduce significantly the number of remaining conformations. In the future this method can also be expanded to triplet and quadruplet sets of rotameric states. We tested our implementation of the FEE by exhaustively searching ten protein segments and found that the FEE identified the global minimum every time. For each segment, the global minimum was exhaustively searched in two different environments: (i) the segments were extracted from the protein and exhaustively searched in the absence of the surrounding residues; (ii) the segments were exhaustively searched in the presence of the remaining residues fixed at crystal structure conformations. We also evaluated the performance of the method for accurately predicting side chain conformations. We examined the influence of factors such as type and accuracy of backbone template used, and the restrictions imposed by the choice of potential function, parameterization and rotamer database. Conclusions are drawn on these results and future prospects are given.
NASA Program Exobiology↗
A kinematical/numerical analysis of rotor-stator interaction noise
In this study, the unsteady, thin-layer Navier-Stokes equations are solved using a system of patched grids for a rotor-stator configuration of an axial turbine. The study examines the plurality of spinning modes that are present in such an interaction. The propagation of these modes is analyzed and appropriate grid spacing chosen in the far upstream and downstream regions to attenuate reflections from the computational boundaries. In addition, radiating boundary conditions are implemented based on the farfield acoustical behavior of the flow field. Results in the form of pressure amplitudes and the spectra of turbine tones are presented. Numerical results and experimental data are compared wherever possible. The numerical results are also shown to conform with the predictions of a kinematical analysis of the flowfield.
Rangwalla, Akil A.↗
Measurements of total reactive nitrogen during the Airborne Arctic Stratospheric Expedition
Composite distributions of measured total reactive nitrogen NO(y), from the NASA ER-2 during the Airborne Arctic Stratospheric Expedition are presented. The observed features of these distributions are discussed in terms of the controlling dynamical, chemical and microphysical processes. In the latitudinal profile from 58 deg N to within about 4 deg poleward of the polar vortex boundary, NO(y) conforms closely to predictions of NO(y) based on N2O measurements. Poleward of 5 deg of latitude within the boundary, the average NO(y) decreases sharply and is significantly lower than that predicted from N2O. This feature is consistent with loss of NO(y) through sedimentation of particles containing NO(y) in polar stratospheric clouds.
Kawa, S. R.↗
Use of photostress and strain gages to analyze behavior of weldments
Tensile and pure bending tests were conducted on specimens having welded joints made from 2219-T87 aluminum alloy and 2319 filler. Data were collected using photoelastic coatings and strain gages. Stress-strain relationships and contraction ratios were determined at several points in a grid covering the weld material and heat affected zone. Material behavior was nonlinear and nonuniform at all points in the grid and contraction ratios did not conform to those predicted by Chakrabarty's plasticity theory. Yielding in joints made using four new welding procedures was examined. None of the new procedures produced more uniform yielding in the joint.
Gambrell, S. C., Jr.↗
A numerical analysis of tonal acoustics in rotor-stator interactions
In this study, the unsteady, thin-layer, Navier-Stokes equations are solved using a system of patched grids for a rotor-stator configuration of an axial turbine. The study focuses on the plurality of spinning modes that are present in such an interaction. The propagation of these modes in the upstream and downstream regions is analyzed and compared with numerical results. It was found that the numerically calculated tonal acoustics could be affected by the type of numerical boundary conditions employed at the inlet and exit of the computational boundaries and the grid spacing in the upstream and downstream regions. Results in the form of surface pressure amplitudes and the spectra of turbine tones and their far field behavior are presented. Numerical results and experimental data are compared wherever possible. The 'mode-content' for different harmonics of blade-passage frequency is shown to conform with that predicted by a kinematical analysis.
Rangwalla, A. A.↗
Crustal Structure of the Iceland Region from Spectrally Correlated Free-air and Terrain Gravity Data
Seismic refraction studies have provided critical, but spatially restricted constraints on the structure of the Icelandic crust. To obtain a more comprehensive regional view of this tectonically complicated area, we spectrally correlated free-air gravity anomalies against computed gravity effects of the terrain for a crustal thickness model that also conforms to regional seismic and thermal constraints. Our regional crustal thickness estimates suggest thickened crust extends up to 500 km on either side of the Greenland-Scotland Ridge with the Iceland-Faeroe Ridge crust being less extended and on average 3-5 km thinner than the crust of the Greenland-Iceland Ridge. Crustal thickness estimates for Iceland range from 25-35 km in conformity with seismic predictions of a cooler, thicker crust. However, the deepening of our gravity-inferred Moho relative to seismic estimates at the thermal plume and rift zones of Iceland suggests partial melting. The amount of partial melting may range from about 8% beneath the rift zones to perhaps 20% above the plume core where mantle temperatures may be 200-400 C above normal. Beneath Iceland, areally limited regions of partial melting may also be compositionally and mechanically layered
Leftwich, T. E.↗
Crustal Structure of the Iceland Region from Spectrally Correlated Free-air and Terrain Gravity Data
Seismic refraction studies have provided critical, but spatially restricted constraints on the structure of the Icelandic crust. To obtain a more comprehensive regional view of this tectonically complicated area, we spectrally correlated free-air gravity anomalies against computed gravity effects of the terrain for a crustal thickness model that also conforms to regional seismic and thermal constraints. Our regional crustal thickness estimates suggest thickened crust extends up to 500 km on either side of the Greenland-Scotland Ridge with the Iceland-Faeroe Ridge crust being less extended and on average 3-5 km thinner than the crust of the Greenland-Iceland Ridge. Crustal thickness estimates for Iceland range from 25-35 km in conformity with seismic predictions of a cooler, thicker crust. However, the deepening of our gravity-inferred Moho relative to seismic estimates at the thermal plume and rift zones of Iceland suggests partial melting. The amount of partial melting may range from about 8% beneath the rift zones to perhaps 20% above the plume core where mantle temperatures may be 200-400 C above normal. Beneath Iceland, areally limited regions of partial melting may also be compositionally and mechanically layered and intruded. The mantle plume appears to be centered at (64.6 deg N, 17.4 deg W) near the Vatnajokull Glacier and the central Icelandic neovolcanic zones.
Leftwich, T. E.↗
Optical, thermal, and electrical performance of low-CR solar arrays
This paper describes the analysis and testing of a photovoltaic low-CR concentrator shaped like a truncated pyramid with an aperture of 0.5 m on a side and a geometric concentration ratio of six. The truncated base plane is covered by either silicon (Si) or gallium arsenide (GaAs) solar cells. Ray-trace analysis of the concentrator predicts a peak optical efficiency of 0.77, which falls off only gradually with pointing error. A coupled thermal-electrical analysis of the system shows that the moderately nonuniform illumination produced by the concentrator does not result in significant mismatch losses, provided the solar cells are connected in parallel groups. The results of ground tests involving a full-scale prototype concentrator conform well with theoretical predictions.
French, E. P.↗
OAO 2 observations of the Alpha Persei cluster
UV photometry of the Alpha Persei cluster obtained with the OAO 2 satellite is analyzed. The data are used together with ground-based coude spectra to examine 20 stars ranging in spectral type from B3 to A3 for rotation effects as predicted by the models of Collins (1974) and of Collins and Sonneborn (1977). Values of v sin i are estimated on the recalibrated system of Slettebak et al. (1975), and an H-R diagram is plotted for the program stars. The distribution of the stars on the diagram is compared with the ZAMS for a chemical composition of X = 0.7 and Y = 0.02 as well as with two isochrones for logarithmic nuclear ages (in years) of 7.5 and 7.7. It is found that there is a seemingly narrow band of early-type stars lying a magnitude or so above the ZAMS on the plot, while the later types form a looser collection straddling the ZAMS. The data for Alpha Persei itself yield an upper limit of 7.4 to the logarithmic age. The analysis for rotation effects reveals one late-type star that does not conform to the model predictions and one 'weak helium' star. Evidence is discussed that these stars are not pole-on rapid rotators. It is concluded that there is a photometric effect for stars earlier than about B6 whereby these stars are displaced redward in color-magnitude diagrams.
Molnar, M. R.↗
Absolute transition probabilities of phosphorus.
Use of a gas-driven shock tube to measure the absolute strengths of 21 P I lines and 126 P II lines (from 3300 to 6900 A). Accuracy for prominent, isolated neutral and ionic lines is estimated to be 28 to 40% and 18 to 30%, respectively. The data and the corresponding theoretical predictions are examined for conformity with the sum rules.-
Miller, M. H.↗
Carbon, nitrogen, magnesium, silicon, and titanium isotopic compositions of single interstellar silicon carbide grains from the Murchison carbonaceous chondrite
Seven hundred and twenty SiC grains from the Murchison CM2 chondrite, ranging in size from 1 to 10 micrometers, were analyzed by ion microprobe mass spectrometry for their C-isotopic compositions. Subsets of the grains were also analyzed for N (450 grains), Si (183 grains), Mg (179 grains), and Ti (28 grains) isotopes. These results are compared with previous measurements on 41 larger SiC grains (up to 15 x 26 micrometers) from a different sample of Murchison analyzed by Virag et al. (1992) and Ireland, Zinner, & Amari (1991a). All grains of the present study are isotopically anomalous with C-12/C-13 ratios ranging from 0.022 to 28.4 x solar, N-14/N-15 ratios from 0.046 to 30 x solar, Si-29/Si-28 from 0.54 to 1.20 x solar, Si-30/Si-28 from 0.42 to 1.14 x solar, Ti-49/Ti-48 from 0.96 to 1.95 x solar, and Ti-50/Ti-48 from 0.94 to 1.39 x solar. Many grains have large Mg-26 excesses from the decay of Al-26 with inferred Al-26/Al-27 ratios ranging up to 0.61, or 12,200 x the ratio of 5 x 10(exp -5) inferred for the early solar system. Several groups can be distinguished among the SiC grains. Most of the grains have C-13 and N-14 excesses, and their Si isotopic compositions (mostly excesses in Si-29 and Si-30) plot close to a slope 1.34 line on a Delta Si-29/Si-28 versus Delta Si-30/Si-28 three-isotope plot. Grains with small C-12/C-13 ratios (less than 10) tend to have smaller or no N-14 excesses and high Al-26/Al-27 ratios (up to 0.01). Grains with C-12/C-13 greater than 150 fall into two groups: grains X have N-15 excesses and Si-29 and Si-30 deficits and the highest (0.1 to 0.6) Al-26/Al-27 ratios; grains Y have N-14 excesses and plot on a slope 0.35 line on a Si three-isotope plot. In addition, large SiC grains of the Virag et al. (1992) study fall into three-distinct clusters according to their C-, Si-, and Ti-isotopic compositions. The isotopic diversity of the grains and the clustering of their isotopic compositions imply distinct and multiple stellar sources. The C- and N-isotopic compositions of most grains are consistent with H-burning in the CNO cycle. These and s-process Kr, Xe, Ba, and Nd suggest asymptotic giant branch (AGB) or Wolf-Rayet stars as likely sources for the grains, but existing models of nucleosynthesis in these stellar sites fail to account in detail for all the observed isotopic compositions. Special problems are posed by grains with C-12/C-13 less than 10 and almost normal and heavy N-isotopic compositions. Also the Si- and Ti-isotopic compositions, with excesses in Si-29 and Si-30 relative to Si-28 and excesses in all Ti isotopes relative to Ti-48, do not precisely conform with the compositions predicted for slow neutron capture. Additional theoretical efforts are needed to achieve an understanding of the isotopic composition of the SiC grains and their stellar sources.
Hoppe, Peter↗
Processing bottlenecks in dual-task performance: structural limitation or strategic postponement?
Recent evidence indicates that a central bottleneck causes much of the slowing that occurs when two tasks are performed at the same time. This bottleneck might reflect a structural limitation inherent in the cognitive architecture. Alternatively, the bottleneck might reflect strategic (i.e., voluntary) postponement, induced by instructions to emphasize one task over the other. To distinguish structural limitations from strategic postponement, we examine a new paradigm in which subjects are told to place equal emphasis on both tasks and to emit both responses at about the same time. An experiment using this paradigm demonstrated patterns of interference that cannot easily be attributed to strategic postponement, preparation effects, or conflicts in response production. The data conform closely to the predictions of structural central bottleneck models.
Attention↗
Nonbonded interactions in membrane active cyclic biopolymers. IV - Cation dependence
Interactions of valinomycin and form of its analogs in several conformations with the central ions Li(+), Na(+), K(+), Rb(+) and Cs(+) are investigated as part of a study of the specific preference of valinomycin for potassium and the mechanisms of carrier-mediated ion transport across membranes. Ion binding energies and conformational potential energies are calculated taking into account polarization energy formulas and repulsive energy between the central ion and the ligand atoms for conformations representing various stages in ion capture and release for each of the two ring chiralities of valinomycin and its analogs. Results allow the prediction of the chirality and conformation most likely to be observed for a given analog, and may be used to synthesize analogs with a desired rigidity or flexibility. The binding energies with the alkali metal cations are found to decrease with increasing ion size, and to be smaller than the corresponding ion hydration energies. It is pointed out that the observed potassium preference may be explainable in terms of differences between binding and hydration energies. Binding energies are also noted to depend on ligand conformation.
Radhakrishnan, R.↗
Swept Volume Approach for the Characterization of Pumping Loss of Shrouded Meshed Cylindrical Gears
High speed rotorcraft transmissions are subject to load-independent power losses consisting of drag and pumping loss. Tightly conforming shrouds enclosing the transmission gears are often incorporated to reduce the drag component of the total load-independent losses. However, tightly conforming axial shrouding can result in an increase in the pumping loss component. Quantifying the pumping loss of shrouded gear transmissions has been the subject of many studies. This study presents a new approach for estimating pumping loss based on the concept of swept volume borrowed from the positive displacement pump and compressor industry. In this study, pumping loss of shrouded gear transmissions is considered to be related to the swept volume of the gear sets and the downstream flow resistance created by the shroud clearances. The drag loss and pumping loss of a spur gear pair have been determined through testing using the NASA Glenn Research Center Gear Windage Test Facility. The results from this testing have been compared to theoretical results using the formulations presented in this study. Good correlation exist between the test pumping power loss and the predicted pumping power loss for tightly conforming axial shroud configurations.
Hurrell, Michael J.↗