Search NASA⌕ Search

SEARCH · Search NASA

Results for “Conformal prediction”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 19 records
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2024

Non-conformity Scores for High-Quality Uncertainty Quantification from Conformal Prediction

High-quality uncertainty quantification (UQ) is a critical component of enabling trust in deep learning (DL) models and is especially important if DL models are to be deployed in high-consequence applications. Conformal prediction (CP) methods represent an emerging nonparametric approach for producing UQ that is easily interpretable and, under weak assumptions, provides a guarantee regarding UQ quality. This report describes the research outputs of an Exploratory Express Laboratory Directed Research and Development (LDRD) project at Sandia National Laboratories. This project focused on how best to implement CP methods for DL models. This report introduces new methodology for obtaining high-quality UQ from DL models using CP methods, describes a novel system of assessing UQ quality, and provides experimental results that demonstrate the quality of the new methodology and utility of the UQ quality assessment system. Avenues for future research and discussion of potential impacts at Sandia and in the wider research community are also given.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2025

D–MOPH–25: diverse MOF–molecule pairs for Henry’s constants prediction

Computational methods like grand-canonical Monte Carlo simulations and machine learning (ML) have accelerated metal–organic frameworks (MOF) exploration but are typically limited to a narrow range of adsorbates due to data availability and force field constraints. In this study, we introduce a dataset of diverse MOF–molecule pairs for Henry’s constant prediction, D–MOPH–25, which systematically explores a diverse chemical space by combining 113 molecular adsorbates with over 5000 MOF structures through an active learning process. D–MOPH–25 constitutes the most diverse adsorbate dataset used in any ML study of molecular adsorption in MOFs to date. Our workflow builds a benchmark for predicting Henry’s constants at 300 K, leveraging conformal prediction for uncertainty quantification. Assessment through Shannon entropy and uniform manifold approximation and projection confirms the comprehensiveness of D–MOPH–25 while highlighting the importance of robust classification to filter out unphysical data points in regression tasks. Although future enhancements in model architecture and sampling criteria could improve predictive performance, our dataset already spans the target space using only 2.31% of total possibilities. This comprehensive dataset facilitates assessment of model generalizability across adsorbate species and can establish a foundation for high-throughput MOF screening and ML-driven separation processes.

active learning↗
DOE OSTI2025

An investigation on machine learning predictive accuracy improvement and uncertainty reduction using VAE-based data augmentation

The confluence of ultrafast computers with large memory, rapid progress in Machine Learning (ML) algorithms, and the availability of large datasets place multiple engineering fields at the threshold of dramatic progress. However, a unique challenge in nuclear engineering is data scarcity because experimentation on nuclear systems is usually more expensive and time-consuming than most other disciplines. One potential way to resolve the data scarcity issue is deep generative learning, which uses certain ML models to learn the underlying distribution of existing data and generate synthetic samples that resemble the real data. In this way, one can significantly expand the dataset to train more accurate predictive ML models. In this study, our objective is to evaluate the effectiveness of data augmentation using variational autoencoder (VAE)-based deep generative models. We investigated whether the data augmentation leads to improved accuracy in the predictions of a deep neural network (DNN) model trained using the augmented data. Additionally, the DNN prediction uncertainties are quantified using Bayesian Neural Networks (BNN) and conformal prediction (CP) to assess the impact on predictive uncertainty reduction. To test the proposed methodology, we used TRACE simulations of steady-state void fraction data based on the NUPEC Boiling Water Reactor Full-size Fine-mesh Bundle Test (BFBT) benchmark. Here, we found that augmenting the training dataset using VAEs has improved the DNN model’s predictive accuracy, improved the prediction confidence intervals, and reduced the prediction uncertainties.

Bayesian neural network↗
DOE OSTI2026

Conformalized-KANs: Uncertainty Quantification with Coverage Guarantees for Kolmogorov-Arnold Networks (KANs) in Scientific Machine Learning

This paper explores uncertainty quantification (UQ) methods in the context of Kolmogorov–Arnold Networks (KANs). We apply an ensemble approach to KANs to obtain a heuristic measure of UQ, enhancing interpretability and robustness in modeling complex functions. Building on this, we introduce Conformalized-KANs, which integrate conformal prediction, a distribution-free UQ technique, with KAN ensembles to generate calibrated prediction intervals with guaranteed coverage.} Extensive numerical experiments are conducted to evaluate the effectiveness of these methods, focusing particularly on the robustness and accuracy of the prediction intervals under various hyperparameter settings. We show that the conformal KAN predictions can be applied to recent extensions of KANs, including Finite Basis KANs (FBKANs) and multifideilty KANs (MFKANs). The results demonstrate the potential of our approaches to significantly improve the reliability and applicability of KANs in scientific machine learning.

• Artificial intelligence (AI) / machine learning ↗
DOE OSTI2025

Uncertainty Quantification for Data-Driven Machine Learning Models in Nuclear Engineering Applications: Where We Are and What Do We Need?

Machine learning (ML) has been leveraged to tackle a diverse range of tasks in almost all branches of nuclear engineering. Many of the successes in ML applications can be attributed to the recent performance breakthroughs in deep learning, the growing availability of computational power, data, and easy-to-use ML libraries. However, these empirical successes have often outpaced our formal understanding of the ML algorithms. An important but under-rated area is uncertainty quantification (UQ) of ML. ML-based models are subject to approximation uncertainty when they are used to make predictions, due to sources including but not limited to, data noise, data coverage, extrapolation, imperfect model architecture and the stochastic training process. The goal of this paper is to clearly explain and illustrate the importance of UQ of ML. We will elucidate the differences in the basic concepts of UQ of physics-based models and data-driven ML models. Various sources of uncertainties in physical modeling and data-driven modeling will be discussed, demonstrated, and compared. We will also present and demonstrate a few techniques to quantify the ML prediction uncertainties, including Monte Carlo dropout, deep ensemble, Bayesian neural networks, Gaussian Processes and conformal prediction. Lastly, we will discuss the need for building a verification, validation and UQ framework to establish ML credibility.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗
DOE OSTI2024

A high-throughput workflow to analyze sequence-conformation relationships and explore hydrophobic patterning in disordered peptoids

Understanding how a macromolecule’s primary sequence governs its conformational landscape is crucial for elucidating its function, yet these design principles are still emerging for macromolecules with intrinsic disorder. Herein, we introduce a high-throughput workflow that implements a practical colorimetric conformational assay, introduces a semi-automated sequencing protocol using matrix-assisted laser desorption/ionization and tandem mass spectrometry (MALDI-MS/MS), and develops a generalizable sequence-structure algorithm. Using a model system of 20mer peptidomimetics containing polar glycine and hydrophobic N-butylglycine residues, we identified nine classifications of conformational disorder and isolated 122 unique sequences across varied compositions and conformations. Conformational distributions of three compositionally identical library sequences were corroborated through atomistic simulations and ion mobility spectrometry coupled with liquid chromatography. A data-driven strategy was developed using existing sequence variables and data-derived “motifs” to inform a machine-learning algorithm toward conformation prediction. Here, this multifaceted approach enhances our understanding of sequence-conformation relationships and offers a powerful tool for accelerating the discovery of materials with conformational control.

data-driven analysis↗
DOE OSTI2025

mphys-surrogate-model

This repository contains python scripts for building and studying reduced-order-modeling representations of droplet coalescence for eventual use in atmospheric models. The included data are generated from high-fidelity superdroplet methods and are utilized by machine learning pipelines to build data-driven models of droplet size distributions that evolve under coalescence. This repository further includes scripts to determine prediction (uncertainty) intervals on the data-driven model products based on conformal prediction.

Katona, JonasE [Lawrence Livermore National Labora↗
DOE OSTI2025

Repetitive proteins that undergo large conformational changes evade structural prediction algorithms

Protein structure prediction algorithms, such as AlphaFold, have accelerated protein design and advanced the understanding of the relationship between amino acid sequence and protein structure. However, these algorithms are limited in their ability to predict the structures of conformationally dynamic, intrinsically disordered, and stimuli-responsive proteins. To evaluate sequence-to-structure predictions of such challenging proteins, we explored a class of conformationally dynamic, repeats-in-toxin (RTX) proteins. RTX proteins adopt intrinsically disordered conformations in the absence of calcium and undergo reversible folding into β-roll structures upon binding to calcium. RTX proteins are characterized by tandem repeats of the sequence GGXGXDXUX, in which X can be any amino acid and U is an aliphatic amino acid. We designed RTX sequence variants with global substitutions of nonconserved amino acids, tandem repeats of consensus sequences GGAGXDTLY, and tandem repeats of scrambled sequences GGAGXDTYL. AlphaFold2 and AlphaFold3 predicted that all of these RTX variants adopt β-roll structures, characteristic of wild-type RTX bound to calcium. However, modeling the predicted structures with molecular dynamics simulations and characterizing the protein variants with circular dichroism spectroscopy, small-angle x-ray scattering, and x-ray crystallography revealed that variants adopt diverse, sequence-dependent structures in the absence and presence of calcium. To better design proteins for applications in biotechnology and sustainability, it is critical to build predictive tools that consider intrinsically disordered protein states and validate these tools with multi-mode, multi-scale experimental data.

Chang, Marina P. [Stanford Univ., CA (United State↗
DOE OSTI2025

Functional protein mining with conformal guarantees

Molecular structure prediction and homology detection offer promising paths to discovering protein function and evolutionary relationships. However, current approaches lack statistical reliability assurances, limiting their practical utility for selecting proteins for further experimental and in-silico characterization. To address this challenge, we introduce a statistically principled approach to protein search leveraging principles from conformal prediction, offering a framework that ensures statistical guarantees with user-specified risk and provides calibrated probabilities (rather than raw ML scores) for any protein search model. Our method (1) lets users select many biologically-relevant loss metrics (i.e. false discovery rate) and assigns reliable functional probabilities for annotating genes of unknown function; (2) achieves state-of-the-art performance in enzyme classification without training new models; and (3) robustly and rapidly pre-filters proteins for computationally intensive structural alignment algorithms. Our framework enhances the reliability of protein homology detection and enables the discovery of uncharacterized proteins with likely desirable functional properties.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

From sequence to protein structure and conformational dynamics with artificial intelligence/machine learning

The 2024 Nobel Prize in Chemistry was awarded in part for de novo protein structure prediction using AlphaFold2, an artificial intelligence/machine learning (AI/ML) model trained on vast amounts of sequence and three-dimensional structure data. AlphaFold2 and related models, including RoseTTAFold and ESMFold, employ specialized neural network architectures driven by attention mechanisms to infer relationships between sequence and structure. At a fundamental level, these AI/ML models operate on the long-standing hypothesis that the structure of a protein is determined by its amino acid sequence. More recently, AlphaFold2 has been adapted for the prediction of multiple protein conformations by subsampling multiple sequence alignments. Herein, we provide an overview of the deterministic relationship between sequence and structure, which was hypothesized over half a century ago with profound implications for the biological sciences ever since. We postulate that protein conformational dynamics are also determined, at least in part, by amino acid sequence and that this relationship may be leveraged for construction of AI/ML models dedicated to predicting protein conformational ensembles. Accordingly, we describe a conceptual model architecture, which may be trained on sequence data in combination with conformationally sensitive structural information, coming primarily from nuclear magnetic resonance (NMR) spectroscopy. Notwithstanding certain limitations in this context, NMR offers abundant structural heterogeneity conducive to conformational ensemble prediction. As NMR and other data continue to accumulate, sequence-informed prediction of protein structural dynamics with AI/ML has the potential to emerge as a transformative capability across the biological sciences.

Artificial intelligence↗
DOE OSTI2024

CryoTRANS: predicting high-resolution maps of rare conformations from self-supervised trajectories in cryo-EM

Cryogenic electron microscopy (cryo-EM) has revolutionized structural biology, enabling efficient determination of structures at near-atomic resolutions. However, a common challenge arises from the severe imbalance among various conformations of vitrified particles, leading to low-resolution reconstructions in rare conformations due to a lack of particle images in these quasi-stable states. We introduce CryoTRANS, a method that predicts high-resolution maps of rare conformations by constructing a self-supervised pseudo-trajectory between density maps of varying resolutions. This trajectory is represented by an ordinary differential equation parameterized by a deep neural network, ensuring retention of detailed structures from high-resolution density maps. By leveraging a single high-resolution density map, CryoTRANS significantly improves the reconstruction of rare conformations and has been validated on four real-world datasets: alpha-2-macroglobulin, actin-binding protein complexes, SARS-CoV-2 spike glycoprotein, and the 70S ribosome. CryoTRANS can also predict high-resolution structures in cryogenic electron tomography maps using a high-resolution cryo-EM map.Cryogenic electron microscopy (cryo-EM) has revolutionized structural biology, enabling efficient determination of structures at near-atomic resolutions. However, a common challenge arises from the severe imbalance among various conformations of vitrified particles, leading to low-resolution reconstructions in rare conformations due to a lack of particle images in these quasi-stable states. We introduce CryoTRANS, a method that predicts high-resolution maps of rare conformations by constructing a self-supervised pseudo-trajectory between density maps of varying resolutions. This trajectory is represented by an ordinary differential equation parameterized by a deep neural network, ensuring retention of detailed structures from high-resolution density maps. By leveraging a single high-resolution density map, CryoTRANS significantly improves the reconstruction of rare conformations and has been validated on four real-world datasets: alpha-2-macroglobulin, actin-binding protein complexes, SARS-CoV-2 spike glycoprotein, and the 70S ribosome. CryoTRANS can also predict high-resolution structures in cryogenic electron tomography maps using a high-resolution cryo-EM map.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗
DOE OSTI2025

Cholesterol modulates membrane elasticity via unified biophysical laws

Cholesterol and lipid unsaturation underlie a balance of opposing forces that features prominently in adaptive cell responses to diet and environmental cues. These competing factors have resulted in contradictory observations of membrane elasticity across different measurement scales, requiring chemical specificity to explain incompatible structural and elastic effects. Here, we demonstrate that – unlike macroscopic observations – lipid membranes exhibit a unified elastic behavior in the mesoscopic regime between molecular and macroscopic dimensions. Using nuclear spin techniques and computational analysis, we find that mesoscopic bending moduli follow a universal dependence on the lipid packing density regardless of cholesterol content, lipid unsaturation, or temperature. Our observations reveal that compositional complexity can be explained by simple biophysical laws that directly map membrane elasticity to molecular packing associated with biological function, curvature transformations, and protein interactions. The obtained scaling laws closely align with theoretical predictions based on conformational chain entropy and elastic stress fields. These findings provide unique insights into the membrane design rules optimized by nature and unlock predictive capabilities for guiding the functional performance of lipid-based materials in synthetic biology and real-world applications.

Kumarage, Teshani [Virginia Polytechnic Inst. and ↗
DOE OSTI2026

Beyond Point Estimates: Benchmarking Uncertainty Quantification Methods on the AION-1 Astronomical Foundation Model

Foundation models for astronomical surveys offer powerful learned representations that can be transferred to downstream regression tasks such as galaxy property estimation. However, point predictions alone are insufficient for scientific inference; reliable uncertainty quantification (UQ) is essential. We compare seven UQ methods on galaxy property regression using frozen AION-1 foundation-model embeddings, predicting redshift, stellar mass, stellar-population age, gas-phase metallicity, and specific star-formation rate, from Legacy Survey photometry/imaging and DESI spectra, with PROVABGS-derived labels. Distribution-free conformal methods achieve marginal coverage within $\sim$1 pp of the nominal 90% across all properties, while non-conformal baselines (Deep Ensembles, MC~Dropout) fail to calibrate reliably. Among conformal approaches, Conformalized Quantile Regression (CQR) delivers the best coverage in the bin with the poorest model predictions. More importantly, only the Locally Valid and Discriminative (LVD) framework -- particularly when operating on AION-1 embeddings -- also provides finite-sample \emph{local validity}, producing intervals that adapt to each galaxy's local prediction difficulty rather than relying on marginal guarantees alone. These results establish conformal prediction, and LVD in particular, as the preferred UQ framework for uncertainty-aware inference on foundation-model embeddings in astrophysics.

Tame-Narvaez, Karla [Fermilab] (ORCID:000000022249↗
DOE OSTI2025

Broken conformal window

We show that near the edges of the conformal window of supersymmetric SU(Nc) QCD, perturbed by Anomaly Mediated Supersymmetry Breaking (AMSB), chiral symmetry can be broken depending on the initial conditions of the RG flow. We do so by perturbatively expanding around Banks-Zaks fixed points and taking advantage of Seiberg duality. Interpolating between the edges of the conformal window, we predict that non-supersymmetric QCD breaks chiral symmetry up to N f ≤ 3N c − 1, while we cannot say anything definitive for N f ≥ 3N c at this moment.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗
DOE OSTI2026

A curated benchmark for cofolding models on kinase conformational states

Abstract Protein kinases are critical drug targets, requiring therapeutics that can modulate their active and inactive conformational states. While cofolding models can generate global folds directly from kinase sequences and ligand SMILES strings, these models have not yet been tested on their ability to recover ligand-induced-fit conformational states of the kinase proteins. Here, we introduce KinConfBench, a curated benchmark of 2225 high-quality human kinase chains to evaluate the ability of four state-of-the-art cofolding models—Boltz-2, Chai-1, Protenix, and RoseTTAFold-All-Atom—to recover both canonical and rare conformational states. We show that geometric success metrics of a ligand pose in the active site do not correlate strongly with the correct kinase conformational state, motivating a new set of dynamical benchmarks for assessing cofolding models. While all four cofolding models achieve ~60–80% prediction accuracy for kinase conformational classification, they exhibit severe mode collapse when performing multiple inferences, show negligible structural diversity in sampling induced-fit motions, and display a prevalent “apo-drift” in which most cofolding models predominantly predict the kinase to be in its ligand-free state. Our results highlight that capturing ligand-induced protein conformational diversity, not just geometric fit, is critical for next-generation structure-based drug discovery.

Sun, Kunyang↗
DOE OSTI2024

Systematic exploration of the thermochemistry for a set of peroxy hydroperoxy-alkyl radicals

Here, the thermochemistry of peroxy hydroperoxy-alkyl ($\overline{O}$OQOOH) radicals has a significant influence on the reactivity of fuels and on the formation of highly oxygenated molecules (HOMs) in the atmosphere. Theoretical characterization of these radicals can be arduous due to their molecular size and complex fundamental interactions, such as hydrogen-bonding and torsional anharmonicity, and difficult to validate in the absence of any direct experimental thermochemical data. In this work, we systematically explore the thermochemistry of a set of $\overline{O}$OQOOH radicals with five increasingly affordable approaches with considerations for these interactions. In doing so, we present a novel conformer selection approach suited to predict properties at combustion temperatures. As a corollary, we also highlight the shortcomings in the standard choice of the ground conformer as the reference. The set of molecules is comprised of 149 C 2 -C 8 $\overline{O}$OQOOH radicals, selected to encompass a wide variety of branching and substitution patterns. Comparisons amongst the approaches help quantify the errors arising from various simplifying assumptions. For the largest of these radicals, and with the most affordable approach, final predictions of Gibbs energies are assigned a 2 σ uncertainty of 4 kcal mol -1 in the negative temperature coefficient region.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2024

A modular and extensible CHARMM-compatible model for all-atom simulation of polypeptoids

Peptoids (N-substituted glycines) are a class of sequence-defined synthetic peptidomimetic polymers with applications including drug delivery, catalysis, and biomimicry. Classical molecular simulations have been used to predict and understand the conformational dynamics of single chains and their self-assembly into morphologies including sheets, tubes, spheres, and fibrils. The CGenFF-NTOID model based on the CHARMM General Force Field has demonstrated success in accurate all-atom molecular modeling of peptoid structure and thermodynamics. Extension of this force field to new peptoid side chains has historically required reparameterization of side chain bonded interactions against ab initio data. This fitting protocol improves the accuracy of the force field but is also burdensome and precludes modular extensibility of the model to arbitrary peptoid sequences. In this work, we develop and demonstrate a Modular Side Chain CGenFF-NTOID (MoSiC-CGenFF-NTOID) as an extension of CGenFF-NTOID employing a modular decomposition of the peptoid backbone and side chain parameterizations, wherein arbitrary side chains within the large family of substituted methyl groups (i.e., –CH 3 , –CH 2 R, –CHRR', and –CRR'R") are directly ported from CGenFF. We validate this approach against ab initio calculations and experimental data to develop a MoSiC-CGenFF-NTOID model for all 20 natural amino acid side chains along with 13 commonly used synthetic side chains and present an extensible paradigm to efficiently determine whether a novel side chain can be directly incorporated into the model or whether refitting of the CGenFF parameters is warranted. We make the model freely available to the community along with a tool to perform automated initial structure generation.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗