Towards the True Hybrid: Physics-Informed Trainable Models for Prognostics and Health Management
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Physics-Informed Machine Learning↗
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Control law design to meet constraints using SYNPAC-synthesis package for active controls
Major features of SYNPAC (Synthesis Package for Active Controls) are described. SYNPAC employs constrained optimization techniques which allow explicit inclusion of design criteria (constraints) in the control law design process. Interrelationships are indicated between this constrained optimization approach, classical and linear quadratic Gaussian design techniques. Results are presented that were obtained by applying SYNPAC to the design of a combined stability augmentation/gust load alleviation control law for the DAST ARW-2.
Adams, W. M., Jr.↗
H2, fixed architecture, control design for large scale systems
The H2, fixed architecture, control problem is a classic linear quadratic Gaussian (LQG) problem whose solution is constrained to be a linear time invariant compensator with a decentralized processing structure. The compensator can be made of p independent subcontrollers, each of which has a fixed order and connects selected sensors to selected actuators. The H2, fixed architecture, control problem allows the design of simplified feedback systems needed to control large scale systems. Its solution becomes more complicated, however, as more constraints are introduced. This work derives the necessary conditions for optimality for the problem and studies their properties. It is found that the filter and control problems couple when the architecture constraints are introduced, and that the different subcontrollers must be coordinated in order to achieve global system performance. The problem requires the simultaneous solution of highly coupled matrix equations. The use of homotopy is investigated as a numerical tool, and its convergence properties studied. It is found that the general constrained problem may have multiple stabilizing solutions, and that these solutions may be local minima or saddle points for the quadratic cost. The nature of the solution is not invariant when the parameters of the system are changed. Bifurcations occur, and a solution may continuously transform into a nonstabilizing compensator. Using a modified homotopy procedure, fixed architecture compensators are derived for models of large flexible structures to help understand the properties of the constrained solutions and compare them to the corresponding unconstrained ones.
Mercadal, Mathieu↗
Application of optimization techniques to the design of a flutter suppression control law for the DAST ARW-2
The design of a candidate flutter suppression (FS) control law for the symmetric degrees of freedom for the DAST ARW-2 aircraft is discussed. The results illustrate the application of several currently employed control law design techniques. Subsequent designs, obtained as the mathematical model of the ARW-2 is updated, are expected to employ similar methods and to provide a control law whose performance will be flight tested. This study represents one of the steps necessary to provide an assessment of the validity of applying current control law synthesis and analysis techniques in the design of actively controlled aircraft. Mathematical models employed in the control law design and evaluation phases are described. The control problem is specified by presenting the flutter boundary predicted for the uncontrolled aircraft and by defining objectives and constraints that the controller should satisfy. A full-order controller is obtained by using Linear Quadratic Gaussian (LQG) techniques. The process of obtaining an implementable reduced-order controller is described. One example is also shown in which constrained optimization techniques are utilized to explicitly include robustness criteria within the design algorithm.
Adams, W. M., Jr.↗
OGLE-2017-BLG-1186: First Application of Asteroseismology and Gaussian Processes to microlensing
We present the analysis of the event OGLE-2017-BLG-1186 from the 2017 Spitzer microlensing campaign. This is a remarkable microlensing event because its source is photometrically bright and variable, which makes it possible to perform an asteroseismic analysis using ground-based data. We find that the source star is an oscillating red giant with average timescale of ∼9 d. The asteroseismic analysis also provides us source properties including the source angular size (∼27 μas) and distance (∼11.5 kpc), which are essential for inferring the properties of the lens. When fitting the light curve, we test the feasibility of Gaussian processes (GPs) in handling the correlated noise caused by the variable source. We find that the parameters from the GP model are generally more loosely constrained than those from the traditional χ(exp 2) minimization method. We note that this event is the first microlensing system for which asteroseismology and GPs have been used to account for the variable source. With both finite-source effect and microlens parallax measured, we find that the lens is likely a ∼0.045 Mʘ brown dwarf at distance ∼9.0 kpc, or a ∼0.073 Mʘ ultracool dwarf at distance ∼9.8 kpc. Combining the estimated lens properties with a Bayesian analysis using a Galactic model, we find a ∼ 35 per cent probability for the lens to be a bulge object and ∼ 65 per cent to be a background disc object.
S.-S. Li↗
The cool-star spectral catalog: A uniform collection of IUE SWP-LOs
Over the past decade and a half of its operations, the International Ultraviolet Explorer has recorded low-dispersion spectrograms in the 1150-2000 A interval of more than 800 stars of late spectral type (F-M). The sub-2000 A region contains a number of emission lines that are key diagnostics of physical conditions in the high-excitation chromospheres and subcoronal 'transition zones' of such stars. Many of the sources have been observed a number of times, and the available collection of SWP-LO exposures in the IUE Archives exceeds 4,000. With support from the Astrophysics Data Program, we have assembled the archival material into a catalog of IUE far-UV fluxes of late-type stars. In order to ensure uniform processing of the spectra, we: (1) photometrically corrected the raw vidicon images with a custom version of the 1985 SWP ITF; (2) identified and eliminated, sharp cosmic-ray 'hits' by means of a spatial filter; (3) extracted the spectral traces with the 'optimal' (weighted-slit) strategy; and (4) calibrated them against a well-characterized reference source, the DA white dwarf G191-B2B. Our approach is similar to that adopted by the IUE Project for its 'Final Archive', but our implementation is specialized to the case of chromospheric emission-line sources. We measured the resulting SWP-LO spectra using a semi-autonomous algorithm that establishes a smooth continuum by numerical filtering, and then fits the significant emissions (or absorptions) by means of a constrained Bevington-type multiple-Gaussian procedure. The algorithm assigns errors to the fitted fluxes - or upper limits in the absence of a significant detection - according to a model based on careful measurements of the noise properties of the IUE's intensified SEC cameras. Here, we describe the 'visualization' strategies we adopted to ensure human-review of the semi-autonomous processing and measuring algorithms; the derivation of the noise model and the assignment of errors; and the structure of the final catalog as delivered to the Astrophysics Data System.
Ayres, T.↗
Radar-Based Bayesian Estimation of Ice Crystal Growth Parameters within a Microphysical Model
The potential for polarimetric Doppler radar measurements to improve predictions of ice microphysical processes within an idealized model–observational framework is examined. In an effort to more rigorously constrain ice growth processes (e.g., vapor deposition) with observations of natural clouds, a novel framework is developed to compare simulated and observed radar measurements, coupling a bulk adaptive-habit model of vapor growth to a polarimetric radar forward model. Bayesian inference on key microphysical model parameters is then used, via a Markov chain Monte Carlo sampler, to estimate the probability distribution of the model parameters. The statistical formalism of this method allows for robust estimates of the optimal parameter values, along with (non-Gaussian) estimates of their uncertainty. To demonstrate this framework, observations from Department of Energy radars in the Arctic during a case of pristine ice precipitation are used to constrain vapor deposition parameters in the adaptive habit model. The resulting parameter probability distributions provide physically plausible changes in ice particle density and aspect ratio during growth. A lack of direct constraint on the number concentration produces a range of possible mean particle sizes, with the mean size inversely correlated to number concentration. Consistency is found between the estimated inherent growth ratio and independent laboratory measurements, increasing confidence in the parameter PDFs and demonstrating the effectiveness of the radar measurements in constraining the parameters. The combined Doppler and polarimetric observations produce the highest-confidence estimates of the parameter PDFs, with the Doppler measurements providing a stronger constraint for this case.
Robert S. Schrom↗
Statistics of the geomagnetic secular variation for the past 5Ma
A new statistical model is proposed for the geomagnetic secular variation over the past 5Ma. Unlike previous models, the model makes use of statistical characteristics of the present day geomagnetic field. The spatial power spectrum of the non-dipole field is consistent with a white source near the core-mantle boundary with Gaussian distribution. After a suitable scaling, the spherical harmonic coefficients may be regarded as statistical samples from a single giant Gaussian process; this is the model of the non-dipole field. The model can be combined with an arbitrary statistical description of the dipole and probability density functions and cumulative distribution functions can be computed for declination and inclination that would be observed at any site on Earth's surface. Global paleomagnetic data spanning the past 5Ma are used to constrain the statistics of the dipole part of the field. A simple model is found to be consistent with the available data. An advantage of specifying the model in terms of the spherical harmonic coefficients is that it is a complete statistical description of the geomagnetic field, enabling us to test specific properties for a general description. Both intensity and directional data distributions may be tested to see if they satisfy the expected model distributions.
Constable, C. G.↗
Statistics of the geomagnetic secular variation for the past 5 m.y
A new statistical model is proposed for the geomagnetic secular variation over the past 5Ma. Unlike previous models, the model makes use of statistical characteristics of the present day geomagnetic field. The spatial power spectrum of the non-dipole field is consistent with a white source near the core-mantle boundary with Gaussian distribution. After a suitable scaling, the spherical harmonic coefficients may be regarded as statistical samples from a single giant Gaussian process; this is the model of the non-dipole field. The model can be combined with an arbitrary statistical description of the dipole and probability density functions and cumulative distribution functions can be computed for declination and inclination that would be observed at any site on Earth's surface. Global paleomagnetic data spanning the past 5Ma are used to constrain the statistics of the dipole part of the field. A simple model is found to be consistent with the available data. An advantage of specifying the model in terms of the spherical harmonic coefficients is that it is a complete statistical description of the geomagnetic field, enabling us to test specific properties for a general description. Both intensity and directional data distributions may be tested to see if they satisfy the expected model distributions.
Constable, C. G.↗
Low-Earth Orbit Trajectory Optimization in the Presence of Atmospheric Uncertainty
The previous 20 to 25 years have seen a tremendous increase in space exploration, and with that an increase in the level of logistics planning needed to ensure mission success. For spacecraft that are designed to be periodically re-supplied, a key logistics consumable is propellant, as it constitutes the greatest up-mass on re-supply vehicles. A trajectory design strategy is therefore desired that minimizes propellant usage in order to ease the demand for propellant re-supply missions. This thesis develops such a strategy in three stages, and uses the International Space Station (ISS) as its testbed, as no other LEO spacecraft is more challenging from a space logistics standpoint. First, the ISS trajectory planning problem is formulated as a constrained burn optimization problem assuming a deterministic atmosphere. The cost function is total ∆v, with constraints imposed on longitude of ascending viii node (LAN) and semi-major axis (SMA) altitude. Analytic derivatives are constructed for both the cost and constraints, which are necessary given the 6-week to 2-year time frames being considered. A gradient-based optimizer is then utilized to find locally-optimal solutions to real-world ISS trajectory planning problems. Second, atmospheric uncertainty is addressed by constructing a probabilistic model of space weather data using Gaussian Processes (GPs). Bayesian inference is performed using the GP model to generate mean and covariance estimates for space weather predictions, whose pedigree is assessed against test data. The predictions are then mapped into atmospheric density via the analytic Jacchia-Roberts density model, and the effect of space weather uncertainty on orbital lifetime is examined. Third, an ISS burn execution uncertainty model is developed. This model, along with the space weather uncertainty model, are deployed in a linear covariance analysis to ascertain their combined effect on LAN and SMA altitude dispersions. The deterministic constraints from the original problem are re-formulated as stochastic constraints, where now the constraint uncertainty interval is required to fall within specified bounds. An updated optimization framework is constructed using the original ∆v cost function along with the stochastic constraints to solve the trajectory optimization problem under atmospheric uncertainty. Finally, the complete architecture is summarized for deployment in an operational setting.
Trajectory Optimization↗
A multiloop, digital flutter suppression control law synthesis case study
A methodology for obtaining a digital low-order, multiloop, robust control law for aeroelastic application from a full-state Linear Quadratic Gaussian design is presented. As part of the design methodology, the multivariable system robustness at the plant input and output is evaluated using singular value properties and improved using constrained optimization procedures. To validate the methodology, a digital flutter suppression system has been designed for the full-span Active Flexible Wing (AFW) wind-tunnel model as part of a collaborative effort between the NASA Langley Research Center and Rockwell International. Preliminary results for a low-order discrete, symmetric flutter suppression system design that significantly improved the AFW model stability are provided and the experiences gained during the design process are discussed.
Mukhopadhyay, Vivek↗
An X-Ray Spectroscopic Search For Dark Matter And Unidentified Line Signatures In The Perseus Cluster With Hitomi
The reported detection of a 3.5 keV emission signal in the Perseus cluster core by Bulbulet al. (2014, ApJ, 789, 13) was ruled out at high confidence in analysis conducted by Aharonian et al. (2017, ApJ, 837, L15) of X-ray spectra at 5 eV energy resolution obtained with the Hitomi observatory Soft X-ray Spectrometer (SXS). Using the same data, we search the full 2–12 keV SXS energy band for previously unidentified emission and absorption features. No significant unidentified line emission or absorption is found. Line flux upper limits (1σper resolution element) vary with photon energy and assumed intrinsic width, decreasing from∼100 at 2 keV to<10 photons cm−2s−1sr−1over most of the 5–10 keV energy range for a Gaussian line with Doppler broadening of 640 kms−1. Limits for narrower and broader lines have a similar energy dependence and are systematically smaller and larger, respectively. These line flux limits are used to constrain the decay rate of hypothetical dark matter candidates. For the sterile neutrino decay rate, we place new constraints over the mass range of 4–24 keV with mass resolution better than any previous X-ray analysis. Additionally, the accuracy of relevant thermal spectral models and atomic data are evaluated. The Perseus cluster spectra may be described by a composite of multi-temperature thermal and active galactic nuclei (AGN) power-law continua. Superposed on these, a few line emission signals possibly originating from unmodeled atomic processes (including SiXIV and FeXXV)are marginally detected and tabulated. Comparisons with previous X-ray upper limits and future prospects for dark matter searches using high-energy resolution spectroscopy are discussed.
Takayuki Tamura↗
Nine-Year Wilkinson Microwave Anisotropy Probe (WMAP) Observations: Final Maps and Results
We present the final nine-year maps and basic results from the Wilkinson Microwave Anisotropy Probe (WMAP) mission. The full nine-year analysis of the time-ordered data provides updated characterizations and calibrations of the experiment. We also provide new nine-year full sky temperature maps that were processed to reduce the asymmetry of the effective beams. Temperature and polarization sky maps are examined to separate cosmic microwave background (CMB) anisotropy from foreground emission, and both types of signals are analyzed in detail.We provide new point source catalogs as well as new diffuse and point source foreground masks. An updated template-removal process is used for cosmological analysis; new foreground fits are performed, and new foreground reduced are presented.We nowimplement an optimal C(exp -1)1 weighting to compute the temperature angular power spectrum. The WMAP mission has resulted in a highly constrained Lambda-CDM cosmological model with precise and accurate parameters in agreement with a host of other cosmological measurements. When WMAP data are combined with finer scale CMB, baryon acoustic oscillation, and Hubble constant measurements, we find that big bang nucleosynthesis is well supported and there is no compelling evidence for a non-standard number of neutrino species (N(sub eff) = 3.84 +/- 0.40). The model fit also implies that the age of the universe is (sub 0) = 13.772 +/- 0.059 Gyr, and the fit Hubble constant is H(sub 0) = 69.32 +/- 0.80 km/s/ Mpc. Inflation is also supported: the fluctuations are adiabatic, with Gaussian random phases; the detection of a deviation of the scalar spectral index from unity, reported earlier by the WMAP team, now has high statistical significance (n(sub s) = 0.9608+/-0.0080); and the universe is close to flat/Euclidean (Omega = −0.0027+0.0039/−0.0038). Overall, the WMAP mission has resulted in a reduction of the cosmological parameter volume by a factor of 68,000 for the standard six-parameter Lambda-CDM model, based on CMB data alone. For a model including tensors, the allowed seven-parameter volume has been reduced by a factor 117,000. Other cosmological observations are in accord with the CMB predictions, and the combined data reduces the cosmological parameter volume even further.With no significant anomalies and an adequate goodness of fit, the inflationary flat Lambda-CDM model and its precise and accurate parameters rooted in WMAP data stands as the standard model of cosmology.
dark matter↗
Constraints on the Neutron Star and Inner Accretion Flow in Serpens X-1 Using Nustar
We report on an observation of the neutron star low-mass X-ray binary Serpens X-1, made with NuSTAR. The extraordinary sensitivity afforded by NuSTAR facilitated the detection of a clear, robust, relativistic Fe K emission line from the inner disk. A relativistic profile is required over a single Gaussian line from any charge state of Fe at the 5 sigma level of confidence, and any two Gaussians of equal width at the same confidence. The Compton back-scattering "hump" peaking in the 10-20 keV band is detected for the first time in a neutron star X-ray binary. Fits with relativistically blurred disk reflection models suggest that the disk likely extends close to the innermost stable circular orbit (ISCO) or stellar surface. The best-fit blurred reflection models constrain the gravitational redshift from the stellar surface to be ZnS (is) greater than 0.16. The data are broadly compatible with the disk extending to the ISCO; in that case,ZnS(is) greater than 0.22 and RNS (is) less than12.6 km (assuming MnS = 1.4 solar mass and a = 0, where a = cJ/GM2). If the star is as large or larger than its ISCO, or if the effective reflecting disk leaks across the ISCO to the surface, the redshift constraints become measurements. We discuss our results in the context of efforts to measure fundamental properties of neutron stars, and models for accretion onto compact objects.
accretion↗