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At least 19 records

Total Lightning Observations of Extreme Weather Events over the Contiguous United States

The overall objective is to investigate total lightning characteristics of extreme weather events over the contiguous United States (CONUS) using TRMM (Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission) LIS (Lightning Image Sensor) and OTD (Optical Transient Detector) satellite observations. A large LIS (10+ years) and OTD (5 years) data base is available to study the instantaneous total or cloud-to-ground (CG) plus intracloud (IC) lightning characteristics of extreme weather events. More specifically, the LIS and OTD data are combined with National Lightning Detection Network (NLDN) observations to examine the total and CG lightning flash rate and density, the IC:CG ratio, and positive CG percentage. These instantaneous lightning characteristics can be used for basic science studies to better understand the physical and dynamical linkages between lightning and precipitation and their environmental controls. They can also provide a first-look of extreme weather events leading up to future satellite observations (e.g., NOAA GOES-R Geostationary Lightning Mapper [GLM]) for use in climate studies and the short-term prediction and warning process. Extreme weather events are defined by the NOAA Storm Data reports of tornadoes, large hail (at least 0.75 inch) and strong straight-line winds (at least 50 kts). Over CONUS, there are over 70,000 severe storm reports in the TRMM spatial domain (< 35 N) from 1998-2007 and over 100,000 storm reports in the OTD spatial domain (5/1995-4/2000). Temporal co-location is on the order of 1% (i.e., 1000 s of coincident overpasses), providing a statistically significant sample of instantaneous total lightning properties. This instantaneous behavior of lightning in extreme weather is then compared to that of typical thunderstorm events, or randomly sampled LIS/OTD events in which the extreme events have been eliminated from the population. Results describing the instantaneous behavior of total lightning within a large sample of extreme and typical thunderstorms over CONUS will be presented. When possible, coincident VHF lightning observations from the ground-based Northern Alabama Lightning Mapping Array (LMA) are compared to the LIS/OTD optical lightning signatures, providing a validation source for instantaneous space-based optical lightning properties and a means to extend lightning inferences over the life-cycle of extreme weather.

Carey, Lawrence D.

Changes in the Ozone Chemical Regime Over the Contiguous United States Inferred By the Inversion of NOx and VOC Emissions Using Satellite Observation

To investigate changes in the ozone (O3) chemical production regime over the contiguous United States (CONUS) with accurate knowledge of concentrations of its precursors, we applied an inverse modeling technique with Ozone Monitoring Instrument (OMI) tropospheric nitrogen dioxide (NO2) and total formaldehyde (HCHO) retrieval products in the summers of 2011, 2014, and 2017, years in which United States National Emission Inventory were based. The inclusion of dynamic chemical lateral boundary conditions and lightning-induced nitric oxide emissions significantly account for the contribution of background sources in the free troposphere. Satellite-constrained nitrogen oxide (NOx) and non-methane volatile organic compounds (NMVOCs) emissions mitigate the discrepancy between satellite and modeled columns: the inversion suggested 2.33-2.84 (1.07-1.34) times higher NOx over the CONUS (over urban regions) and 0.28-0.81 times fewer NMVOCs emissions over the southeastern United States. The model-derived HCHO/NO2 column ratio shows gradual spatial changes in the O3 production regime near urban cores relative to previously defined threshold values representing NOx and VOC sensitive conditions. We also found apparent shifts from the NOx-saturated regime to the transition regime (or the transition regime to the NOx-limited regime) over the major cities in the western United States. In contrast, rural areas, especially in the east-southeastern United States, exhibit a decreased HCHO/NO2 column ratio by -1.30 ± 1.71 with a reduction in HCHO column primarily driven by meteorology, becoming sensitive to VOC emissions. Results show that incorporating satellite observations into numerical modeling could help policymakers implement appropriate emission control policies for O3 pollution.

HCHO/NO2 factorInverse modelingOzone chemical regi

The applications of satellites to communications, navigation and surveillance for aircraft operating over the contiguous United States

The objective was to determine on a priority basis the satellite applications to communications, navigation, and surveillance requirements for aircraft operating beyond 1975 over the contiguous United States and adjacent oceanic transition regions, and to determine if and how satellite technology can meet these requirements in a reliable, efficient, and economical manner. Major results and conclusions are as follows: (1) The satellite applications of greatest importance are surveillance and rapid collision warning communications; and (2) The necessary technology is available as demonstrated by an attractive system concept.

Craigie, J. H.

Irrigation Water Demand Sensitivity to Climate Variability across the Contiguous United States

Climate variability is an important driver of irrigation water use in many regions. Efforts to anticipate climate change impacts on future water availability can benefit from understanding how irrigation water demand has responded to these drivers to date. Here we apply satellite derived data, meteorological reanalysis, an advanced land surface model, and available state level reports to quantify irrigation demand sensitivities to temperature and precipitation across the Contiguous United States, for the period of 2002-2017. As expected, strong negative correlations are found between precipitation and irrigation withdrawals, both simulated and reported. Temperature sensitivities, however, vary by region and season, as do the interactive effects of temperature and precipitation on irrigation. Climate-induced irrigation variability is largest in transitional climate zones. These transitional zones are generally separate from the regions where rates of irrigation withdrawals are greatest, such that climate-induced variability in irrigation demand represents a water resource consideration that is distinct from chronic over pumping.

Wanshu Nie

Retrieving Particulate Matter Concentrations over the Contiguous United States Using CALIOP Observations

Using twelve years (2007-2018) of NASA Cloud-Aerosol Lidar with Orthogonal Polarization (CALIOP) near-surface 532 nm aerosol extinction retrievals, multi-year mean and trends of particulate matter (PM) concentrations are derived over the contiguous United States (CONUS). Different from past studies that use column integrated aerosol optical thickness, here only near-surface CALIOP aerosol extinction is used for deriving near-surface PM with aerodynamic diameters less than 2.5 µm (PM2.5) concentrations using an innovative, bulk-mass-modeling-based method. Compared against ground based PM2.5 measurements from the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), an encouraging relationship between CALIOP-derived PM2.5 and EPA-observed PM2.5 (Deming slope = 0.89; RMSE = 3.42 µg/m3; mean bias = -1.00 µg/m3) is found using combined daytime/nighttime CALIOP data. Also, comparable trends in PM2.5 concentrations from the EPA and daytime and nighttime CALIOP data are found for most of the eastern CONUS and imply that air quality is generally improving over this region for the study period. Over the western CONUS, a seasonal analysis reveals that PM2.5 trends are positive during the more active wildfire season (June through November) but negative for other months. This study suggests that lidar data show promise in their use for obtaining PM2.5 estimates and provides motivation to further explore aerosol extinction-based PM concentration retrievals in anticipation of future space-based lidar missions.

CALIOP

Recent Changes in Cyanobacteria Algal Bloom Magnitude in Large Lakes Across the Contiguous United States

Cyanobacterial blooms in inland lakes produce large quantities of biomass that impact drinking water systems, recreation, and tourism and may produce toxins that can adversely affect public health. This study analyzed nine years of satellite-derived bloom records and compared how the bloom magnitude has changed from 2008-2011 to 2016-2020 in 1881 of the largest lakes across the contiguous United States (CONUS). We determined bloom magnitude each year as the spatio-temporal mean cyanobacteria biomass from May to October and in concentrations of chlorophyll-a. We found that bloom magnitude decreased in 465 (25%) lakes in the 2016-2020 23 period. Conversely, there was an increase in bloom magnitude in only 81 lakes (4%). Bloom magnitude either didn’t change, or the observed change was in the uncertainty range in the majority of the lakes (n=1335, 71%). Above-normal wetness and normal or below-normal maximum temperature over the warm season may have caused the decrease in bloom magnitude in the eastern part of the CONUS in recent years. On the other hand, a hotter and dryer warm season in the western CONUS may have created an environment for increased algal biomass. While more lakes saw a decrease in bloom magnitude, the pattern was not monotonic over the CONUS. The variations in temporal changes in bloom magnitude within and across climatic regions depend on the interactions between land use land cover (LULC) and physical factors such as temperature and precipitation. Despite expectations suggested by recent global studies, bloom magnitude has not increased in larger US lakes over this time period.

remote sensing

Mechanisms Associated with Daytime and Nighttime Heat Waves over the Contiguous United States

Heat waves are extreme climate events that have the potential to cause immense stress on human health, agriculture, and energy systems, so understanding the processes leading to their onset is crucial. There is no single accepted definition for heat waves, but they are generally described as a sustained amount of time where temperature exceeds a local threshold. Multiple different temperature variables are potentially relevant, as high values of both daily maximum (Tmax) and minimum (Tmin) temperatures can be detrimental to human health. In this study, we focus explicitly on the different mechanisms associated with summertime heat waves manifested during daytime versus nighttime hours over the contiguous United States. Heat waves are examined using the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) Modern-Era Retrospective analysis for Research and Applications, Version 2 (MERRA-2). Over 1980–2018, the increase in the number of heat wave days per summer was generally stronger for nighttime heat wave days than daytime heat wave days, with localized regions of significant positive trends. Processes linked with daytime and nighttime heat waves are identified through composite analysis of precipitation, soil moisture, clouds, humidity and fluxes of heat and moisture. Daytime heat waves are associated with dry conditions, reduced cloud cover, and increased sensible heating. Mechanisms leading to nighttime heat waves differ regionally across the US, but they are typically associated with increased clouds, humidity and/or low-level temperature advection. In the Midwest US, enhanced moisture is transported from the Gulf of Mexico during nighttime heat waves.

Extreme events

Comparing Tropopause-Penetrating Convection Identifications Derived from NEXRAD and GOES over the Contiguous United States

Overshooting cloud tops (OTs) are a result of powerful updrafts that rapidly transport air from the troposphere to the lower stratosphere. Aside from the well-known relationships between strong updrafts and severe weather, the boundaries of updrafts, including the OT, are turbulent, which leads to irreversible mixing of air between the stratosphere and troposphere, altering the composition of both layers. In order to better understand the impact of OTs, knowing precisely when and where they occur is vital. Within the last decade remote-sensing observations from satellites and radars have been used to identify OTs, but the results thus far have not been entirely consistent due to challenges with accurately identifying OTs with these sensor datasets. This study compares OTs identified using NEXRAD reflectivity data from the GridRad dataset with an approach that uses GOES infrared (IR) data. The GridRad method estimates the altitude of echo tops directly from the radar pointing geometry, merging a combination of radars that enables products every 5 mins, with 2 km spatial and 1 km vertical grid spacing. The GOES satellite method uses spatial patterns in tropopause-relative IR brightness temperature to derive an OT likelihood. The study region covers a large part of the contiguous United States during selected active convection dates in 2017 and includes data from GOES-13/16. A large sample of OTs observed by NEXRAD and GOES-13/16 satellites are analyzed to better understand NEXRAD and IR observations of OTs, quantify agreement between the OT detection methods, and demonstrate how the 4x increase in spatial resolution from GOES-13 to GOES-16 impacts OT algorithm detection performance. The results show that for nearly time-matched scenes, with many severe storms, GOES-13 and -16 detection accuracy is quite comparable; however, some missed detections are attributed to poorer GOES-13 image resolution. It was found that GOES-13 OT regions are ~2 K warmer than GOES-16 on average, but such differences exceed 5 K for the most intense OT regions. It is found that false GOES IR-based detections are unavoidable, given that cold cloud pixels significantly colder than the tropopause from nearby or recently decayed OTs can persist within anvils for 15 minutes or more.

John W. Cooney

Comparison of chemical lateral boundary conditions for air quality predictions over the contiguous United States during pollutant intrusion events

The National Air Quality Forecast Capability (NAQFC) operated in U.S.’s National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) provides the operational forecast guidance for ozone and fine particulate matters with aerodynamic diameters less than 2.5μm (PM2.5) over the contiguous 48 U.S. states (CONUS) using the Community Multi-scale Air Quality (CMAQ) model. The existing NAQFC uses climatological chemical lateral boundary conditions ( CLBCs), which cannot capture pollutant intrusion events originating outside of the model domain. In this study, we developed a model framework to use dynamic CLBCs from the Goddard Earth Observing System Model, version 5 (GEOS) to drive NAQFC. A mapping of the GEOS chemical species to the CMAQ’s Carbon Bond 5 (CB05)-Aero6 species was developed. The utilization of the GEOS dynamic CLBCs in NAQFC showed the best overall performance in simulating the surface observations during the Saharan dust intrusion and Canadian wildfire events in summer 2015.The simulated PM2.5 was improved from 0.18 to 0.37 and the mean bias was reduced from -6.74 μg/m3 to -2.96 μg/m3 over CONUS. Although the effect of CLBCs on the PM2.5 correlation was mainly near the inflow boundary, its impact on the background concentrations reached further inside the domain. The CLBCs could affect background ozone concentrations through the inflows of ozone itself and its precursors, such as CO. It was further found that the aerosol optical thickness (AOT) from satellite retrievals correlated well with the column CO and elemental carbon from GEOS. The satellite-derived AOT CLBCs generally improved the model performance for the wildfire intrusion events during a summer 2018 case study, and demonstrated how satellite observations of atmospheric composition could be used as an alternative method to capture the air quality effects of intrusions when the global model CLBCs, such as GEOS CLBCs, are not available.

Community Multi-scale Air Quality (CMAQ) model

Management and Climate Contributions to Satellite-Derived Active Fire Trends in the Contiguous United States

Fires in croplands, plantations, and rangelands contribute significantly to fire emissions in the United States, yet are often overshadowed by wildland fires in efforts to develop inventories or estimate responses to climate change. Here we quantified decadal trends, interannual variability, and seasonality of Terra Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) observations of active fires (thermal anomalies) as a function of management type in the contiguous U.S. during 2001-2010. We used the Monitoring Trends in Burn Severity database to identify active fires within the perimeter of large wildland fires and land cover maps to identify active fires in croplands. A third class of fires defined as prescribed/other included all residual satellite active fire detections. Large wildland fires were the most variable of all three fire types and had no significant annual trend in the contiguous U.S. during 2001-2010. Active fires in croplands, in contrast, increased at a rate of 3.4 percent per year. Cropland and prescribed/other fire types combined were responsible for 77 percent of the total active fire detections within the U.S and were most abundant in the south and southeast. In the west, cropland active fires decreased at a rate of 5.9 percent per year, likely in response to intensive air quality policies. Potential evaporation was a dominant regulator of the interannual variability of large wildland fires, but had a weaker influence on the other two fire types. Our analysis suggests it may be possible to modify landscape fire emissions within the U.S. by influencing the way fires are used in managed ecosystems.

Satellite-derived

The Intra-Cloud Lightning Fraction in the Contiguous United States

Lightning is dangerous and destructive; cloud-to-ground (CG) lightning flashes can start fires, interrupt power delivery, destroy property and cause fatalities. Its rate-of-occurrence reflects storm kinematics and microphysics. For decades lightning research has been an important focus, and advances in lightning detection technology have been essential contributors to our increasing knowledge of lightning. A significant step in detection technology is the Geostationary Lightning Mapper (GLM) to be onboard the Geostationary Operational Environment Satellite R-Series (GOES-R) to be launched in early 2016. GLM will provide continuous "Total Lightning" observations [CG and intra-cloud lightning (IC)] with near-uniform spatial resolution over the Americas by measuring radiance at the cloud tops from the different types of lightning. These Total Lightning observations are expected to significantly improve our ability to nowcast severe weather. It may be important to understand the long-term regional differences in the relative occurrence of IC and CG lightning in order to understand and properly use the short-term changes in Total Lightning flash rate for evaluating individual storms.

lightning

In Situ Measurements of Angular-Dependent Light Scattering by Aerosols over the Contiguous United States

This work provides a synopsis of aerosol phase function (F (sub 11)) and polarized phase function (F (sub 12)) measurements made by the Polarized Imaging Nephelometer (PINeph) during the Studies of Emissions, Atmospheric Composition, Clouds and Climate Coupling by Regional Surveys (SEAC4RS) and the Deep Convection Clouds and Chemistry (DC3) field campaigns. In order to more easily explore this extensive dataset, an aerosol classification scheme is developed that identifies the different aerosol types measured during the deployments. This scheme makes use of ancillary data that include trace gases, chemical composition, aerodynamic particle size and geographic location, all independent of PI-Neph measurements. The PI-Neph measurements are then grouped according to their ancillary data classifications and the resulting scattering patterns are examined in detail. These results represent the first published airborne measurements of F (sub 11) and minus F (sub 12) divided by F (sub 11) for many common aerosol types. We then explore whether PI-Neph light-scattering measurements alone are sufficient to reconstruct the results of this ancillary data classification algorithm. Principal component analysis (PCA) is used to reduce the dimensionality of the multi-angle PI-Neph scattering data and the individual measurements are examined as a function of ancillary data classification. Clear clustering is observed in the PCA score space, corresponding to the ancillary classification results, suggesting that, indeed, a strong link exists between the angular scattering measurements and the aerosol type or composition. Two techniques are used to quantify the degree of clustering and it is found that in most cases the results of the ancillary data classification can be predicted from PI-Neph measurements alone with better than 85 percent recall. This result both emphasizes the validity of the ancillary data classification as well as the PI-Neph's ability to distinguish common aerosol types without additional information.

Aerosol phase function