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Case study on contingency planning for the MARS 2020 rover launch. Intended as part of a training for international consequence management personnel for IAEA and/or NATO-sponsored training classes. Funded through NA-81
The Pantex Plant Ogallala Aquifer and Perched Groundwater Contingency Plan has been developed in accordance with the requirements identified in the: • Interagency Agreement for the Pantex Superfund Site, Article 8.5 Work to be Performed, • Compliance Plan Provision of Hazardous Waste Permit No. 50284, and • Record of Decision for Groundwater, Soil, and Associated Media, Pantex Plant. A Long‐Term Monitoring System Design has been designed to monitor conditions in the perched groundwater including changes in the perched aquifer as a result of implementing the response actions. Monitoring is required for verifying the effectiveness of perched groundwater response actions (i.e., conditions in the perched aquifer are being affected as intended) and for confirming that the perched aquifer and Ogallala Aquifer characterization as defined in the Resource Conservation and Recovery Act Facility Investigation Report and the Corrective Measure Studies/Feasibility Study remains accurate. If monitoring results obtained through the monitoring network identify an unexpected condition or deviation, contingent actions will be considered and implemented as necessary to ensure continued protection of the Ogallala Aquifer and human health and the environment. Potential deviations to expected technology performance may be encountered for each of the four primary response actions that compose the selected remedy for perched groundwater; Playa 1 Pump and Treat System, Southeast Area Pump and Treat System, Southeast Area In‐Situ Bioremediation System (comprised of the Southeast In‐Situ Bioremediation System Original System, Southeast Area In‐Situ Bioremediation System Extension System, Offsite In‐Situ Bioremediation System, Perchlorate/Chromium ISB, Northeast ISB and County Road 8 ISB), and Zone 11 In‐Situ Bioremediation System. Monitoring will also be conducted to determine if there are deviations to the expected characterization, e.g., contaminants not expected as a result of the RCRA Facility Investigation characterization. Deviations to expected conditions in the Ogallala Aquifer could also be encountered if the response actions in the perched groundwater are not performing as expected, i.e., preventing contaminants from migrating to the Ogallala Aquifer. Currently, Pantex has begun investigation of detections of high explosives above groundwater protection standards in wells on the Texas Tech University property and a plume that is moving to the northeast from that area. Due to those detections, this Plan recognizes the fact that future detections in the Ogallala will be focused on first‐ time detections of analytes. After a remedy is determined, this Plan will require modification to address-deviations and contingent actions. This Plan was developed to identify the contingent actions necessary to mitigate impacts resulting from deviations to site conditions or response action performance. The Plan defines the environmental problem being addressed by the response actions, clarifies the expected conditions and objectives of the response actions, and identifies the potential deviations to the response actions (due to site conditions or technology performance) that could be encountered. The deviations were evaluated to determine the likelihood of occurrence, potential impact, and time to respond to avoid impact. The Plan also identifies the monitoring outlined in the Long‐Term Monitoring System Design Report (Consolidated Nuclear Security, 2024) and Sampling Analysis Plan (PanTeXas Deterrence, 2024) that will be used to detect the deviations. Lastly, the Plan specifies the contingent actions that could be implemented in response to the deviations. Because each response focuses on a discrete portion of the perched aquifer and contaminant plume, each response action has a different set of expected conditions, and therefore differing impacts from deviations to the site and technology expectations. As a result, the contingent actions are identified for each response action and potential deviation including specific constituents, location, and conditions. If deviations are encountered that impact the ability of the response action to meet performance objectives, the contingent actions will be focused on ensuring the response action can meet the performance objective. Contingent actions may be implemented as interim actions (ISMs/removal actions) in accordance with the Record of Decision, Interagency Agreement, and Hazardous Waste Permit‐50284, if warranted by the specific circumstances. For deviations to site characterization expected conditions, the contingent action will focus on determination of the source of the deviation, determination of the appropriate response, and evaluation of additional work to be completed. However, if the deviation to characterization impacts the performance of the response action, the contingent action will again focus on ensuring performance objectives can be met. Early source term removals and cleanup actions have been implemented to protect the Ogallala Aquifer. Because of these actions and based on modeling results, the expected conditions in the Ogallala Aquifer are that constituents of concern will not be detected above the Groundwater Protection Standards (GWPSs) nor will they reach potential points of exposure above the GWPS. The primary deviation of concern for the Ogallala is if constituents are detected in the Ogallala Aquifer near or above GWPSs. If it occurs, this change in expected conditions would require further evaluation of site and contaminant characteristics to determine an appropriate course of action. The evaluation would include additional monitoring, source identification, implementation of interim protective measures (if necessary), and delineation of extent. These evaluations are necessary to determine an appropriate response action for the Ogallala. The primary goal of the Plan is to provide for the continued protection of the Ogallala Aquifer and the health of its consumers. In recognition, this Plan presents a flexible and rational approach for making future decisions associated with confirming the change in perched and Ogallala aquifer conditions and identifying a response (technical activities, changes to response actions, regulatory oversight, and public involvement).
Wash vehicles containing either high- or low-pressure water sprayers, a collection of rotating brushes, or a combination of these, are frequently utilized in concentrating solar power (CSP) plants to maintain a high level of optical efficiency in the solar field. In recent years, multiple modeling approaches have been developed to obtain fleet sizes and mirror-washing schedules that optimize the tradeoff of vehicle capital and use costs and labor versus lost revenues due to soiling. These planning models cover normal operating conditions well but do not consider rare events such as dust storms which can a significant reduction in receiver productivity, or shut down operations until most or all of the solar field’s mirrors have been cleaned. To that end, we propose a methodology that evaluates whether additional capital should be deployed to hedge against these events by weighing the net present value of the expected benefits against the capital costs. The output of this method is a breakeven frequency, a metric we sue to determine whether an additional vehicle should be purchased to address the contingency of dust storms by comparing it to the expected annual storm frequency We develop a small collection of case studies using commercial-scale CSP tower plants and obtain breakeven frequencies that mostly fall between 0.1 and 1.0 storms per year, depending on the existing fleet size and storm severity.
Wash vehicles containing either high- or low-pressure water sprayers, a collection of rotating brushes, or a combination of these, are frequently utilized in concentrating solar power (CSP) plants to maintain a high level of optical efficiency in the solar field. In recent years, multiple modeling approaches have been developed to obtain fleet sizes and mirror-washing schedules that optimize the tradeoff of vehicle capital and use costs and labor versus lost revenues due to soiling. These planning models cover normal operating conditions well but do not consider rare events such as dust storms which can cause a significant reduction in receiver productivity, or shut down operations until most or all of the solar field's mirrors have been cleaned. To that end, we propose a methodology that evaluates whether additional capital should be deployed to hedge against these events by weighing the net present value of the expected benefits against the capital costs. The output of this method is a breakeven frequency, a metric we sue to determine whether an additional vehicle should be purchased to address the contingency of dust storms by comparing it to the expected annual storm frequency We develop a small collection of case studies using commercial-scale CSP tower plants and obtain breakeven frequencies that mostly fall between 0.1 and 1.0 storms per year, depending on the existing fleet size and storm severity.
The poster provides an overview of the methodology and results of a case study prototyping interactions between National Risk Assessment Partnership (NRAP) tools and the FECM/NETL Saline Storage Cost Model (CO2_S_COM) to quantify the costs associated with responding to an environmental adverse event.
This report is intended to support electric utilities and regulators as they work together to increase the climate resilience of the power system in the United States. It focuses on best practice methods and examples of conducting utility forecasting with climate change (Section 2) as well as three overlapping types of electric utility planning for climate change: resource planning (Section 3), asset planning (Section 4), and contingency planning (Section 5). This report also addresses data development and access (Section 6), emerging pathways for planning including decision-making under deep uncertainty and storylines approaches (Section 7), regulatory considerations (Section 8), and coordination and innovative funding and cost sharing approaches to planning for climate variability (Section 9).
This article, the fourth and final installment in the DOE–IDEA series, focuses on organizational execution and how strong management practices, teamwork, and preparedness contribute to successful district energy systems. It highlights case studies from Ashley Energy and Cornell University to illustrate effective operational strategies. Ashley Energy demonstrates the importance of emergency preparedness and rapid response. After a major flood disrupted its plant, the organization restored service in under 72 hours by relying on pre-established plans, vendor relationships, and trained staff. The case emphasizes proactive contingency planning, understanding insurance processes, and empowering skilled personnel to improvise during crises. Cornell University’s example highlights the role of collaboration and transparency in long-term success. Its district energy system benefits from strong data sharing, real-time energy monitoring, and active involvement of faculty and students in system planning and innovation. This culture of teamwork and data-driven decision-making supports sustainability goals and continuous system improvement. Overall, the article shows that effective organizational execution—through preparedness, collaboration, and data transparency—is essential for maintaining reliable, efficient, and sustainable district energy systems.
Amidst the COVID-19 pandemic, restaurants become more reliant on no-contact pick-up or delivery ways for serving customers. As a result, they need to make tactical planning decisions such as whether to partner with online platforms, to form their own delivery team, or both. In this paper, we develop an integrated prediction-decision model to analyze the profit of combining the two approaches and to decide the needed number of drivers under stochastic demand. We first use the susceptible-infected-recovered (SIR) model to forecast future infected cases in a given region and then construct an autoregressive-moving-average (ARMA) regression model to predict food-ordering demand. Using predicted demand samples, we formulate a stochastic integer program to optimize food delivery plans. We conduct numerical studies using COVID-19 data and food-ordering demand data collected from local restaurants in Nuevo Leon, Mexico, from April to October 2020, to show results for helping restaurants build contingency plans under rapid market changes. Our method can be used under unexpected demand surges, various infection/vaccination status, and demand patterns. Here, our results show that a restaurant can benefit from partnering with third-party delivery platforms when (i) the subscription fee is low, (ii) customers can flexibly decide whether to order from platforms or from restaurants directly, (iii) customers require more efficient delivery, (iv) average delivery distance is long, or (v) demand variance is high.
Ambitious international greenhouse gas emissions reduction targets demand a rapid transformation to a low-carbon economy. This transformation includes the accelerated adoption of carbon dioxide (CO2) capture and storage (CCS) technology. However, as with any large-scale engineering enterprise, the widespread commercial-scale deployment of geologic carbon storage (GCS) raises important questions about technology and cost-effectiveness, safety, environmental risk, and long-term liability. Effectively assessing and managing risks and liability associated with GCS projects is a key technical need throughout the project life cycle-from site selection and permitting to monitoring design, operational risk management, and post-operational site closure. This presentation highlights recent advancements in tools for quantitative risk assessment, being developed by the National Risk Assessment Partnership (NRAP). NRAP is a multi-year, multinational laboratory research collaboration sponsored by the U.S. Department of Energy's Office of Fossil Energy and Carbon Management. Our focus will be on these tools' applications in addressing critical stakeholder questions related to supporting permitting to ensure secure and environmentally protective storage; designing effective and efficient monitoring plans; evaluating the effectiveness of remedial actions and risk management alternatives; and informing liability assessment and investment decisions. This paper will detail the key functionality of NRAP’s Open-Source Integrated Assessment Model (NRAP-Open-IAM), a computational framework for assessing leakage risk and containment assurance. This model features streamlined workflows for calculating leakage risk profiles, delineating risk-based area of review, and assessing contingency plans and post-injection site care requirements. ORION is an open-source, observation-based ensemble forecasting toolkit to help operators assess the seismic hazard at a carbon storage site. The State of Stress Analysis Tool (SOSAT), designed to assess subsurface stress conditions and evaluate geomechanical risk resulting from CO2 injection in an area of interest will also be presented. We will also introduce a prototype model to evaluate storage project costs and liability associated with risk management. The Technoeconomic and Liability Evaluation for Storage (TALES) model uses results from forecasts of leakage and induced seismicity risk to estimate the lifecycle cost of managing risk. Finally, a preliminary example of how the NRAP Risk-based Adaptive Monitoring Plan (RAMP) tool can be used to design efficient and effective site monitoring plans and estimate the detectability of fluid leakage will be provided. The relevance of these tools for addressing key stakeholder questions amidst uncertainty will be emphasized.
Extreme weather events, many of which are climate change related, are occurring with increasing frequency and intensity and causing catastrophic outages. One of the major modern-day concerns of utilities is dealing with such extreme outages and consequently, its repercussions on the lives of people in society and social aspects. Traditionally, operators have been using rolling blackouts as a contingency plan to serve critical loads during such events when electricity supply is scarce. However, such blackouts practices are executed on a last-minute mandatory basis, depriving customers having low-capacity high priority loads (i.e. refrigeration, water, telecommunication, etc) that should also be serviced if at all possible. Historically, policymakers have often adopted quota-based regulatory actions or rationing for other commodities (such as gasoline, butter, sugar) to handle scarcity situations. Motivated from such quota based systems, our contribution presented in this work is an alternative transactive rationing mechanism that would provide some minimum level of service to all of the customers and serve the critical loads using market-based control during such scarcity-based contingencies. This is in contrast to the state-of-art TE mechanisms that allocate resources to customers solely based on their willingness-to-pay. The effectiveness of the proposed mechanism is demonstrated through simulation-based evaluation on two real-life use cases having feeder-level and microgrid-level configurations respectively. The simulation results clearly demonstrate the capability of the rationing scheme to serve customers’ high-priority loads through prolonged outages even during extreme scarcity scenarios.
The Brazil Current (BC) is a weak western boundary current flowing along the Southwestern Atlantic Ocean. It is frequently described as a flow with intense mesoscale activity and relatively low volume transport between 5.0 and 10.0 Sv. We use a 13-year eddy-resolving primitive-equation simulation to show that the presence of persistent meanders and eddies leads to characteristic quasi-steady Lagrangian transport patterns, aptly extracted through climatological Lagrangian Coherent Structures (cLCS). The cLCS position the surface expression of the BC core along the 2000-m isobath, in excellent visual agreement with high resolution satellite sea-surface temperature and the model Eulerian mean velocity. The cLCS deformation pattern also responds to zonally persistent cross-shelf SSH transition from positive (high) values near coastline to low (negative) values between 200- and 2000-m and back to positive (high) offshore from the 2000-m isobath. Zonally-paired cyclonic and anticyclonic structures are embedded in this transition, also causing the cLCS to deform into chevrons. An efficient transport barrier is identified close to the 200-m isobath confirmed by limited inshore movement of drogued drifters and accurately indicated by an along slope maxima of climatological strength of attraction. We also show that the persistent cyclonic and anticyclonic structures may induce localized cross-shelf transport. Regions of low climatological strength of attraction coincide with large shelves and with stagnant synthetic trajectories. We also show that cLCS accurately depict trajectories initiated at the location of Chevron’s spill (November 2011) as compared to synthetic and satellite-tracked trajectories, and the outline of the oil from that accident. There is also an agreement between the large-scale oil slicks reaching the Brazilian beaches (from August 2019 to February 2020) and the strength of climatological attraction at the coast. Our work also clarifies the influence of persistent mesoscale structures on the regional circulation. The identification and quantitative description of climatological Lagrangian coherent structures is expected to improve the effectiveness of future emergency response to oil spills, contingency planning, rescue operations, larval and fish connectivity assessment, drifter launch strategies, waste pollutant and marine debris dispersion and destination.
This paper proposes a software framework, WEC-Grid, for integrating wave energy converters (WECs) into power flow software, such as Siemens PSS®E, to aid the integration of alternative energy sources into Microgrids. While integrating alternative sources such as WECs presents specific challenges such as cost, power quality, and power variability, wave energy is a promising renewable energy resource. Evaluating the integration of WECs into the power grid is a complex and nuanced problem that requires seamless communication between a WEC model and power flow software. The presented WEC-Grid software framework bridges and extends the functionality of WEC-Sim, an open-source WEC modeling package for MATLAB, through a wave-to-wire (W2W) electro-mechanical power conversion and processing model. WEC-Grid acts as a software wrapper, handler, and communication layer between the W2W modeler and power flow software. The software is designed to represent each grid system as a class object, allowing power system operators to perform power system duties such as contingency planning and dispatch operations. The integration of WECs with PSS®E’s power flow calculations workflow is demonstrated with an IEEE RTS case study.
The devastating impacts of extreme weather events, many of which are climate-change related, are increasingly evident through the frequency and duration of outages on power grids, especially the distribution systems. One of the major modern-day concerns of utilities is dealing with such extreme supply outages where operators have used rolling blackouts as a contingency plan balance supply and demand while serving critical loads. Such events have significant repercussions social and economic costs. Such blackouts practices are a blunt instrument, depriving customers with low-capacity high-priority loads (i.e. refrigeration, water, telecommunication, etc.) that provide high marginal amenity. Our contribution presented in this work is a transactive emergency allocation mechanism that would provide some minimum level of service to all of the customers while enabling preference-based trading of this initial allocation. This is in contrast to the state-of-art TE mechanisms that allocate resources to customers solely based on their willingness-to-pay. The effectiveness of the proposed mechanism is demonstrated through simulation-based evaluation on a prototypical distribution system experiencing 12-hour scarcity-based emergency event due to extreme operating conditions. Simulation results clearly demonstrate the capability of the proposed transactive emergency allocation mechanism in effectively utilizing the available energy and providing some level of service to all customers to operate their high-priority loads throughout the extreme scarcity event while being economically efficient in allowing trading of allocation based on customer preferences.
The regulatory limits for surface water and groundwater contained in this database comprise chemical-specific preliminary remediation goals (PRGs) based on potential Applicable or Relevant and Appropriate Requirements (ARARs). These values should be used in conjunction with PRGs based on risk assessment to ensure that the PRGs for a site meet the residual risk requirements for protection of human health and the environment in the National Oil and Hazardous Substance Pollution Contingency Plan (NCP). In some cases, the values presented in this database may be To-Be-Considered (TBC) Guidance because these values are superseded by site-specific state requirements. ARARs are available for the Federal government, California, Georgia, Illinois, Kentucky, New Jersey, New Mexico, Nevada, New York, Ohio, South Carolina, Tennessee, Washington, and Wisconsin. The dataset provides maximum contaminant levels for drinking water and water quality criteria for fresh and marine environments based on acute and chronic exposures. Users can select ARAR sources, drinking water standards and water quality standards, individual chemicals, and retrieve results in tabular or spreadsheet formats for analysis. ARARs are derived from authoritative sources, including federal and state government agencies. The dataset supports environmental risk assessments, regulatory decision-making, and environmental planning, with tools for benchmarking against promulgated standards. This structured approach ensures a robust evaluation of environmental risks tailored to regulatory needs.
Along with a market-competitive levelized cost of energy, a current energy converter technology strongly benefits from an extensive consideration of socioeconomic, environmental, and regulatory factors early in the design process. As part of a technology performance level assessment, a series of assessment questions and guidance are developed and presented to evaluate an early-stage current energy technology on holistic criteria considering the entire device lifecycle. The assessment represents an accumulation of industry and research experience to date and relies on regular updates to ensure alignment with industry best-practices, regulatory requirements, and up-to-date technical understanding. A cradle-to-grave (materials, manufacturing, installation and deployment, operations and maintenance, and end-of-life) assessment of capabilities and functional requirements (i.e., high, medium, and low) performance criteria for current energy converters deployed in tidal, ocean current, and/or river applications. Key considerations related to manufacturing and installation include supply chain robustness, manufacturability and related job creation in the end-user and/or adjacent communities, and the time-to-repayment of the embodied energy debt. During deployment and maintenance operations, the safety of the device and subsystems during disconnect or grid failure, the difficulty and frequency of offshore heavy-lift activities, the avoidance or mitigation of area-use conflicts, the sea-states and weather conditions that permit maintenance access, and the availability of contingency plans (should conditions change unexpectedly) are a portion of the considered assessment criteria. Results include the potential impact of early-stage design decisions on the socioeconomic, environmental, and regulatory performance of a technology that allows developers to increase the product value and probability of success, and minimize costly late-stage design iterations through early and broad consideration of factors affecting overall performance and acceptability.
During the 3rd quarter of FY22, progress was made on modeling and simulation of deep penetration laser welding of Alloy 740H. Advances in the modeling of residual stress development arising from the calculated temperature field of the solidifying weld pool were made to understand the development of solidification cracking. Additionally, preliminary modeling of the temperature field within the weld pool of a wobbling laser heat source was performed. The maximum temperature of the weld pool was found to vary with time. These result will allow modeling of deep penetration laser welding using a wobbling laser to mitigate weld defects and cracking. Also, additional characterization of hybrid laser arc welds indicated that these welds were not defect-free as originally thought and the current HLA welds would not be acceptable under criteria outlined in the ASME Boiler and Pressure Vessel Code, Section IX. Therefore, additional welding trails with variation of the welding parameters and HLA welding configurations are required to produce welds acceptable under the Section IX criteria. It was shown that considerable reduction of HLAW defects had been achieved with each successive welding campaign. Therefore additional variation of HLAW parameters may still yield the desired defect-free welds, however, options for alternate HLAW configurations as well as plate preheating are outlined as contingency plans to obtain suitable welds. These additional (unplanned) HLAW trial may prevent subsequent milestones from being achieved within the original budget.
Along with a market-competitive levelized cost of energy, a current energy converter technology strongly benefits from an extensive consideration of socioeconomic, environmental, and regulatory factors early in the design process. As part of a technology performance level assessment, a series of assessment questions and guidance are developed and presented to evaluate an early-stage current energy technology on holistic criteria considering the entire device lifecycle. The assessment represents an accumulation of industry and research experience to date and relies on regular updates to ensure alignment with industry best-practices, regulatory requirements, and up-to-date technical understanding. A cradle-to-grave (materials, manufacturing, installation and deployment, operations and maintenance, and end-of-life) assessment of capabilities and functional requirements for tidal, river, and ocean current technologies has been completed. This work presents the evaluation questions and qualitative performance criteria for current energy converters deployed in tidal, ocean current, and/or river applications. Key considerations related to manufacturing and installation include supply chain robustness, manufacturability and related job creation in the end-user and/or adjacent communities, and the time-to-repayment of the embodied energy debt. During deployment and maintenance operations, the safety of the device and subsystems during disconnect or grid failure, the difficulty and frequency of offshore heavy-lift activities, the avoidance or mitigation of area use conflicts, the sea-states and weather conditions that permit maintenance access, and the availability of contingency plans (should conditions change unexpectedly) are a portion of the considered assessment criteria. Results include the potential impact of early-stage design decisions on the socioeconomic, environmental, and regulatory performance of a technology that allows developers to increase the product value and probability of success, and minimize costly late-stage design iterations through early and broad consideration of factors affecting overall performance and acceptability.