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Results for “Correlated variability”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 19 records
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2019

Joint emulation of Earth System Model temperature-precipitation realizations with internal variability and space-time and cross-variable correlation: fldgen v2.0 software description

Earth System Models (ESMs) are excellent tools for quantifying many aspects of future climate dynamics but are too computationally expensive to produce large collections of scenarios for downstream users of ESM data. In particular, many researchers focused on the impacts of climate change require large collections of ESM runs to rigorously study the impacts to both human and natural systems of low-frequency high-importance events, such as multi-year droughts. Climate model emulators provide an effective mechanism for filling this gap, reproducing many aspects of ESMs rapidly but with lower precision. The fldgen v1.0 R package quickly generates thousands of realizations of gridded temperature fields by randomizing the residuals of pattern scaling temperature output from any single ESM, retaining the spatial and temporal variance and covariance structures of the input data at a low computational cost. The fldgen v2.0 R package described here extends this capability to produce joint realizations of multiple variables, with a focus on temperature and precipitation in an open source software package available for community use (https://github.com/jgcri/fldgen). This substantially improves the fldgen package by removing the requirement that the ESM variables be normally distributed, and will enable researchers to quickly generate covarying temperature and precipitation data that are synthetic but faithful to the characteristics of the original ESM.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2019

Soil Respiration Variability and Correlation Across a Wide Range of Temporal Scales

Abstract The high temporal variability of the soil‐to‐atmosphere CO 2 flux (soil respiration, R S ) has been studied at hourly to multiannual time scales but remains less well understood than R S spatial variability. How R S fluxes vary and are autocorrelated at various time lags has practical implications for sampling and more fundamentally for our understanding of its abiotic and biotic underlying mechanisms. We examined the variability, correlation, and sampling requirements of R S over a wide range of temporal scales in a temperate deciduous forest in eastern Maryland, USA, using both automated (temporally continuous, N = 30,036 over 10 months) and survey (spatially diverse, temporally sparse, N = 1,912 over 17 months) data. Data from a global R S database were also used to examine interannual variability in comparable forests. The coefficient of variability of successive measurements generally varied from the minute (median coefficient of variation 16%) to hourly and daily (11–12%) time scales. Successive R S values measured at a given collar exhibited a strong hour‐to‐hour correlation ( r = 0.931) and a moderate correlation at a 2‐hr lag (0.289); day‐to‐day (i.e., 24 hr lag) hourly observations were uncorrelated. Daily R S means were well correlated at a 1‐day lag ( r = 0.856) but not at any further time lag. In a linear mixed‐effects model predicting R S , soil temperature and moisture exerted consistently strong effects regardless of time scale, and model coefficient of variability was generally high (>80%). These results provide new opportunities to explore the drivers and variability of R S fluxes, quantify sampling requirements, and improve error propagation.

Bond‐Lamberty, Ben↗
DOE OSTI2022

A non-hierarchical correlation discrete variable representation

The correlation discrete variable representation (CDVR) facilitates (multi-layer) multi-configurational time-dependent Hartree (MCTDH) calculations with general potentials. It employs a layered grid representation to efficiently evaluate all potential matrix elements appearing in the MCTDH equations of motion. The original CDVR approach and its multi-layer extension show a hierarchical structure: the size of the grids employed at the different layers increases when moving from an upper layer to a lower one. In this work, a non-hierarchical CDVR approach, which uses identically structured quadratures at all layers of the MCTDH wavefunction representation, is introduced. Here, the non-hierarchical CDVR approach crucially reduces the number of grid points required, compared to the hierarchical CDVR, shows superior scaling properties, and yields identical results for all three representations showing the same topology. Numerical tests studying the photodissociation of NOCl and the vibrational states of CH 3 demonstrate the accuracy of the non-hierarchical CDVR approach.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2020

The Great Markarian 421 Flare of 2010 February: Multiwavelength Variability and Correlation Studies

We report on variability and correlation studies using multiwavelength observations of the blazar Mrk 421 during the month of February, 2010 when an extraordinary flare reaching a level of ~27 Crab Units above 1 TeV was measured in very-highenergy (VHE) γ-rays with the VERITAS observatory. This is the highest flux state for Mrk 421 ever observed in VHE γ-rays. Data are analyzed from a coordinated campaign across multiple instruments including VHE γ-ray (VERITAS, MAGIC), high-energy (HE) γ-ray (Fermi-LAT), X-ray (Swift, RXTE, MAXI), optical (including the GASP-WEBT collaboration and polarization data) and radio (Mets¨ahovi, OVRO, UMRAO). Light curves are produced spanning multiple days before and after the peak of the VHE flare, including over several flare ‘decline’ epochs. The main flare statistics allow 2-minute time bins to be constructed in both the VHE and optical bands enabling a cross-correlation analysis that shows evidence for an optical lag of ~25–55 minutes, the first time-lagged correlation between these bands reported on such short timescales. Limits on the Doppler factor (δ & 33) and the size of the emission region (δ -1RB . 3.8 × 10 13 cm) are obtained from the fast variability observed by VERITAS during the main flare. Analysis of 10-minute-binned VHE and X-ray data over the decline epochs shows an extraordinary range of behavior in the flux-flux relationship: from linear to quadratic to lack of correlation to anti-correlation. Taken together, these detailed observations of an unprecedented flare seen in Mrk 421 are difficult to explain by the classic single-zone synchrotron self-Compton model.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
NASA NTRS1978

Radiation variability and correlation studies

The determination of variability of the emitted and reflected components of outgoing radiation from the earth-atmosphere system is discussed. The effects of variability on climate and weather are considered, and meteorological and climate variables to be correlated with radiation budget measurements are determined.

Source record↗
NASA NTRS1947

Experiments on stability of Bunsen-burner flames for turbulent flow

The results of a study of the stability of propane-air flames on Bunsen-burner tubes are presented. Fuel-air ratio, tube diameter, and Reynolds number were the primary variables. Regions of stability are outlined in plots of fuel-air ratio as a function of Reynolds number for flames seated on the burner lip and for flames suspended well above the burner. For fully developed flow, turbulent as well as laminar, the velocity gradient at the burner wall is a satisfactory variable for correlating the fuel-air ratio required for blow-off of seated flames for fuel-air ratios of less than 15 percent. For turbulent flames, wall velocity serves as a correlating variable in the same fuel-air ratio range.

Bollinger, Lowell M↗
NASA NTRS1948

Experiments on Stability of Bunsen-Burner Flames for Turbulent Flow

The results of a study of the stability of propane-air flames on bunsen-burner tubes are presented. Fuel-air ratio, tube diameter, and Reynolds number were the primary variables. Regions of stability are outlined in plots of fuel-air ratio as a function of Reynolds number for flames seated on the burner lip and for flames suspended well above the burner. For fully developed flow, turbulent as well as laminar, the velocity gradient at the burner wall is a satisfactory variable for correlating the fuel-air ratio required for blow-off of seated flames for fuel-air ratios of less than 15 percent. For turbulent flames, wall velocity serves as a correlating variable in the same fuel-air-ratio range. (author)

Bollinger, Lowell M↗
NASA NTRS2020

Multiwavelength Variability and Correlation Studies of Mrk 421 During Historically Low X-ray and Y-ray Activity in 2015–2016

We report a characterization of the multiband flux variability and correlations of the nearby (z=0.031) blazar Markarian 421(Mrk 421) using data from Mets ̈ahovi, Swift, Fermi-LAT, MAGIC, FACT, and other collaborations and instruments from 2014November till 2016 June. Mrk 421 did not show any prominent flaring activity, but exhibited periods of historically low activity above 1 TeV (F>1TeV<1.7×10−12ph cm−2s−1) and in the 2–10 keV (X-ray) band (F2−10 keV<3.6×10−11erg cm−2s−1),during which the Swift-BAT data suggest an additional spectral component beyond the regular synchrotron emission. The highest flux variability occurs in X-rays and very high-energy (E>0.1 TeV)γ-rays, which, despite the low activity, show a significant positive correlation with no time lag. The HRkeV and HRTeV show the harder-when-brighter trend observed in many blazars, but the trend flattens at the highest fluxes, which suggests a change in the processes dominating the blazar variability. Enlarging our dataset with data from years 2007 to 2014, we measured a positive correlation between the optical and the GeV emission over a range of about 60 d centred at time lag zero, and a positive correlation between the optical/GeV and the radio emission over a range of about 60 d centred at a time lag of 43+9−6d. This observation is consistent with the radio-bright zone being located about 0.2 parsec downstream from the optical/GeV emission regions of the jet. The flux distributions are better described with a lognormal function in most of the energy bands probed, indicating that the variability in Mrk 421 is likely produced by a multiplicative process.

Mrk 421↗
NASA NTRS1985

A search in the COS-B data base for correlated time variability in regions containing objects of interest

As is well known, association of the gamma-ray sources with celestial objects is, in general, difficult on a pure positional basis, while correlated time variability could obviously provide such proof. This technique can be employed on regions of the gamma-ray sky containing interesting objects of known variability at some wavelength even in the absence of a recognized gamma-ray excess with the aim to extract a weak but predictable signal from the surrounding noise. This technique is applied here on a longer variability time scale, generally of the order of days. Photons coming from the sky regions centered on the various celestial objects considered were selected with energies 100 MeV and with arrival directions within an energy-dependent area of radius of approx 6 deg at 100 MeV. In order to construct a time profile of such photons, their arrival times were grouped in bins of dimensions defined by the available photons number and by the value of the period searched for.

Caraveo, P. A.↗
NASA NTRS1976

Determination of particle size using measurement of scatter

Scatter from glass beads placed on a mirror was measured using a quartz lamp and laser. Data were obtained in the plane containing the normal to the surface and the incident beam. For the quartz lamp the best correlation can be obtained for data measured at a zenith of 55 deg and 180 deg from the incident beam. The best correlation when the laser is used is obtained at about the same position. However, the correlation variables are angular spacing of the minimums of the data versus the size. Whereas, with the quartz lamp the correlation variables are the amount of scattered energy versus size.

Scott, R. L., Jr.↗
DOE OSTI2025

Correlating processing variables to material properties in recycled polypropylene: A data‐driven approach

Abstract Polypropylene (PP) is one of the most widely used plastics, yet its recycling remains limited, with less than 1% of solid waste PP being reprocessed. Mechanical recycling through extrusion is the most practical method, but inconsistent reprocessing conditions introduce variability in material properties. While temperature, screw speed, and residence time influence the thermomechanical stress applied during reprocessing, there are no standardized guidelines for optimizing these parameters. This study examines how these factors shape the properties of recycled PP, using conditions designed to mimic post‐industrial recycled (PIR) scrap. Residence time was measured using colorimetric tracking and correlated with molecular weight, viscosity, and mechanical properties over multiple extrusion cycles. Data‐driven modeling, including response surface methodology, support vector machines, and artificial neural networks, identified processing temperature as the dominant factor in material degradation, followed by residence time. Mechanical properties remained stable, while viscosity decreased predictably with increasing residence time. By linking reprocessing conditions to property evolution, this study provides a method to optimize processing parameters and reduce variability in recycled PP. These findings help manufacturers improve process control, making recycled PP more predictable for reuse in manufacturing. Highlights Study of PIR‐quality PP without additives or compatibilizers. Residence time analysis shows processing temperature drives PP property changes. Mark‐Houwink enables quick molecular weight checks for quality control. Models predict mechanical and rheological shifts in reprocessing. Optimized processing parameters minimize property degradation in recycling.

Estela‐García, John E. [Polymer Engineering Center↗
NASA NTRS2004

Analytical Modeling and Test Correlation of Variable Density Multilayer Insulation for Cryogenic Storage

A unique foam/multilayer insulation (MLI) combination concept for orbital cryogenic storage was experimentally evaluated using a large-scale hydrogen tank. The foam substrate insulates for ground-hold periods and enables a gaseous nitrogen purge as opposed to helium. The MLI, designed for an on-orbit storage period for 45 days, includes several unique features including a variable layer density and larger but fewer perforations for venting during ascent to orbit. Test results with liquid hydrogen indicated that the MLI weight or tank heat leak is reduced by about half in comparison with standard MLI. The focus of this effort is on analytical modeling of the variable density MLI (VD-MLI) on-orbit performance. The foam/VD-MLI model is considered to have five segments. The first segment represents the optional foam layer. The second, third, and fourth segments represent three different MLI layer densities. The last segment is an environmental boundary or shroud that surrounds the last MLI layer. Two approaches are considered: a variable density MLI modeled layer by layer and a semiempirical model or "modified Lockheed equation." Results from the two models were very comparable and were within 5-8 percent of the measured data at the 300 K boundary condition.

Hastings, L. J.↗
NASA NTRS2018

Field Exploration and Life Detection Sampling for Planetary Analogue Research (FELDSPAR): Variability and Correlation in Biomarker and Mineralogy Measurements from Icelandic Mars Analogues

In situ exploration of planetary environments allows biochemical analysis of sub-centimeter-scale samples; however, landing sites are selected a priori based on measurable meter- to kilometer-scale geological features. Optimizing life detection mission science return requires both understanding the expected biomarker distributions across sample sites at different scales and efficiently using first-stage in situ geochemical instruments to justify later-stage biological or chemical analysis. Icelandic volcanic regions have an extensive history as Mars analogue sites due to desiccation, low nutrient availability, and temperature extremes, in addition to the advantages of geological youth and isolation from anthropogenic contamination. Many Icelandic analogue sites are also rugged and remote enough to create the same type of instrumentation and sampling constraints typically faced by robotic exploration.

Planetary↗
DOE OSTI2025

Explainable Machine Learning for Functional Data

Black-box machine learning models are recognized as useful tools for prediction applications, but the algorithmic complexity of some models causes interpretation challenges. Explainability methods have been proposed to provide insight into these models, but there is little research focused on supervised modeling with functional data inputs. We argue that, especially in applications of high consequence, it is important to explicitly model the functional dependence in a black-box analysis to not obscure or misrepresent patterns in explanations. As such, we propose the V ariable importance E xplainable E lastic S hape A nalysis (VEESA) pipeline for training supervised machine learning models with functional inputs. The pipeline is an analysis process that includes the data preprocessing, modeling, and post-hoc explanations. The preprocessing is done using elastic functional principal components analysis, which accounts for vertical and horizontal variability in functional data and, ultimately, allows for explanations in the original data space that identify the important functional variability without bias due to correlated variables. Here, we demonstrate the pipeline on two high-consequence applications: explosives classification for national security and inkjet printer identification in forensic science. The applications exhibit the VEESA pipeline’s ability to provide an understanding of the characteristics of the functional data useful for prediction. Code for implementing the pipeline is available in the veesa R package (and supplemental python code).

Elastic Shape Analysis↗
NASA NTRS2000

Influence of the Surface and Cloud Nonuniformities in the Solar Energy Fluxes in the Arctic

Solar energy fluxes reaching the surface and absorbed by it are basic components of the energy balance of the Arctic. They depend mainly on the solar zenith angle, a state of the atmosphere, especially the cloudiness, and the surface albedo. However, they can also be modified by variabilities in the surface albedo and cloud optical thickness. The surface of the Arctic can be highly nonuniform. The surface of the Arctic Ocean, which covers the huge part of the Arctic can be view as a mosaic of sea water, sea ice, snow and, in the melting period, melting ponds. In our paper, results are presented of Monte Carlo simulations of the expected influence of nonuniform cloud structure and nonuniform surface albedo on radiative fluxes at the Arctic surface. In particular, the plane parallel biases in the surface absorptance and atmospheric transmittance are studied. The bias is defined as the difference between the real absorptance or transmittance (i.e. nonuniform conditions) averaged over a given area, and the uniform or plane parallel case with the same mean cloud optical thickness and the same mean surface albedo. The dependence of the biases is analysed with respect to the following: domain averaged values of the cloud optical thickness and surface albedo, scales of their spatial variabilities, correlation between cloud optical thickness and cloud albedo variabilities, cloud height, and the solar zenith angle. Ranges of means and standard deviations of the input parameters typical of Arctic conditions are obtained from the SHEBA experiment.

Rozwadowska, A.↗