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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 19 records
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2019

Joint emulation of Earth System Model temperature-precipitation realizations with internal variability and space-time and cross-variable correlation: fldgen v2.0 software description

Earth System Models (ESMs) are excellent tools for quantifying many aspects of future climate dynamics but are too computationally expensive to produce large collections of scenarios for downstream users of ESM data. In particular, many researchers focused on the impacts of climate change require large collections of ESM runs to rigorously study the impacts to both human and natural systems of low-frequency high-importance events, such as multi-year droughts. Climate model emulators provide an effective mechanism for filling this gap, reproducing many aspects of ESMs rapidly but with lower precision. The fldgen v1.0 R package quickly generates thousands of realizations of gridded temperature fields by randomizing the residuals of pattern scaling temperature output from any single ESM, retaining the spatial and temporal variance and covariance structures of the input data at a low computational cost. The fldgen v2.0 R package described here extends this capability to produce joint realizations of multiple variables, with a focus on temperature and precipitation in an open source software package available for community use (https://github.com/jgcri/fldgen). This substantially improves the fldgen package by removing the requirement that the ESM variables be normally distributed, and will enable researchers to quickly generate covarying temperature and precipitation data that are synthetic but faithful to the characteristics of the original ESM.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2019

Soil Respiration Variability and Correlation Across a Wide Range of Temporal Scales

Abstract The high temporal variability of the soil‐to‐atmosphere CO 2 flux (soil respiration, R S ) has been studied at hourly to multiannual time scales but remains less well understood than R S spatial variability. How R S fluxes vary and are autocorrelated at various time lags has practical implications for sampling and more fundamentally for our understanding of its abiotic and biotic underlying mechanisms. We examined the variability, correlation, and sampling requirements of R S over a wide range of temporal scales in a temperate deciduous forest in eastern Maryland, USA, using both automated (temporally continuous, N = 30,036 over 10 months) and survey (spatially diverse, temporally sparse, N = 1,912 over 17 months) data. Data from a global R S database were also used to examine interannual variability in comparable forests. The coefficient of variability of successive measurements generally varied from the minute (median coefficient of variation 16%) to hourly and daily (11–12%) time scales. Successive R S values measured at a given collar exhibited a strong hour‐to‐hour correlation ( r = 0.931) and a moderate correlation at a 2‐hr lag (0.289); day‐to‐day (i.e., 24 hr lag) hourly observations were uncorrelated. Daily R S means were well correlated at a 1‐day lag ( r = 0.856) but not at any further time lag. In a linear mixed‐effects model predicting R S , soil temperature and moisture exerted consistently strong effects regardless of time scale, and model coefficient of variability was generally high (>80%). These results provide new opportunities to explore the drivers and variability of R S fluxes, quantify sampling requirements, and improve error propagation.

Bond‐Lamberty, Ben↗
DOE OSTI2022

A non-hierarchical correlation discrete variable representation

The correlation discrete variable representation (CDVR) facilitates (multi-layer) multi-configurational time-dependent Hartree (MCTDH) calculations with general potentials. It employs a layered grid representation to efficiently evaluate all potential matrix elements appearing in the MCTDH equations of motion. The original CDVR approach and its multi-layer extension show a hierarchical structure: the size of the grids employed at the different layers increases when moving from an upper layer to a lower one. In this work, a non-hierarchical CDVR approach, which uses identically structured quadratures at all layers of the MCTDH wavefunction representation, is introduced. Here, the non-hierarchical CDVR approach crucially reduces the number of grid points required, compared to the hierarchical CDVR, shows superior scaling properties, and yields identical results for all three representations showing the same topology. Numerical tests studying the photodissociation of NOCl and the vibrational states of CH 3 demonstrate the accuracy of the non-hierarchical CDVR approach.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2016

Mapping Cheatgrass Across the Range of the Greater Sage-Grouse: Linking Biophysical, Climate and Remote Sensing Data to Predict Cheatgrass Occurrence

Increasing spread of invasive annual grasses, such as Bromus tectorum (cheatgrass), can contribute to increased fire frequency and hinder the reestablishment of native sagebrush, forbs, and grasses in subsequent years. Knowledge of the current distribution of cheatgrass on the landscape is a key component in planning and executing strategies to protect sagebrush ecosystems and sensitive wildlife species such as the Greater sage-grouse (Centrocercus urophasianus). Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL) worked with US Fish and Wildlife Service (FWS) to assemble and derive information to map cheatgrass occurrence across the historic range of sage-grouse. The information and map products described in this report can help land managers prioritize conservation efforts at the species’ range scale. We constructed an ecological model based on a suite of climatic and biophysical variables and satellite measures of peak NDVI (normalized difference vegetation index) – an index of vegetation greenness – to predict cheatgrass occurrence across the historic range of sage-grouse in the United States. More than 24,000 field measurements of cheatgrass cover across the study area were acquired from various agencies and research groups and reviewed for use in the modeling efforts. A subset of 6650 field measurement points were identified and verified for use in statistical analyses. For each measurement location we derived a suite of 50 biophysical and NDVI variables correlated with cheatgrass occurrence. Pairwise correlation of variables was examined to remove highly-correlated variables from the model. A total of 13 variables were retained for use in forward-stepping discriminant analysis and modeling. Discriminant scores were used to determine probability of cheatgrass occurrence, which was broken into two relative cover classes: 0% to 2% cover and > 2% cheatgrass cover. This report describes the data and methods used to develop the model and the cheatgrass occurrence map. We provide a brief discussion of the accuracy of classification, and describe the appropriate scale of use for map results. The range-wide map of occurrence will be made available online for FWS and partner agencies.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

The Great Markarian 421 Flare of 2010 February: Multiwavelength Variability and Correlation Studies

We report on variability and correlation studies using multiwavelength observations of the blazar Mrk 421 during the month of February, 2010 when an extraordinary flare reaching a level of ~27 Crab Units above 1 TeV was measured in very-highenergy (VHE) γ-rays with the VERITAS observatory. This is the highest flux state for Mrk 421 ever observed in VHE γ-rays. Data are analyzed from a coordinated campaign across multiple instruments including VHE γ-ray (VERITAS, MAGIC), high-energy (HE) γ-ray (Fermi-LAT), X-ray (Swift, RXTE, MAXI), optical (including the GASP-WEBT collaboration and polarization data) and radio (Mets¨ahovi, OVRO, UMRAO). Light curves are produced spanning multiple days before and after the peak of the VHE flare, including over several flare ‘decline’ epochs. The main flare statistics allow 2-minute time bins to be constructed in both the VHE and optical bands enabling a cross-correlation analysis that shows evidence for an optical lag of ~25–55 minutes, the first time-lagged correlation between these bands reported on such short timescales. Limits on the Doppler factor (δ & 33) and the size of the emission region (δ -1RB . 3.8 × 10 13 cm) are obtained from the fast variability observed by VERITAS during the main flare. Analysis of 10-minute-binned VHE and X-ray data over the decline epochs shows an extraordinary range of behavior in the flux-flux relationship: from linear to quadratic to lack of correlation to anti-correlation. Taken together, these detailed observations of an unprecedented flare seen in Mrk 421 are difficult to explain by the classic single-zone synchrotron self-Compton model.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2015

The 2009 multiwavelength campaign on Mrk 421: Variability and correlation studies

We perform an extensive characterization of the broadband emission of Mrk 421, as well as its temporal evolution, during the non-flaring (low) state. The high brightness and nearby location (z = 0.031) of Mrk 421 make it an excellent laboratory to study blazar emission. The goal is to learn about the physical processes responsible for the typical emission of Mrk 421, which might also be extended to other blazars that are located farther away and hence are more difficult to study. We performed a 4.5-month multi-instrument campaign on Mrk 421 between January 2009 and June 2009, which included VLBA, F-GAMMA, GASP-WEBT, Swift, RXTE, Fermi-LAT, MAGIC, and Whipple, among other instruments and collaborations. This extensive radio to very-high-energy (VHE; E> 100 GeV) γ-ray dataset provides excellent temporal and energy coverage, which allows detailed studies of the evolution of the broadband spectral energy distribution. As a result, Mrk421 was found in its typical (non-flaring) activity state, with a VHE flux of about half that of the Crab Nebula, yet the light curves show significant variability at all wavelengths, the highest variability being in the X-rays. We determined the power spectral densities (PSD) at most wavelengths and found that all PSDs can be described by power-laws without a break, and with indices consistent with pink/red-noise behavior. We observed a harder-when-brighter behavior in the X-ray spectra and measured a positive correlation between VHE and X-ray fluxes with zero time lag. Such characteristics have been reported many times during flaring activity, but here they are reported for the first time in the non-flaring state. We also observed an overall anti-correlation between optical/UV and X-rays extending over the duration of the campaign. In conclusion, the harder-when-brighter behavior in the X-ray spectra and the measured positive X-ray/VHE correlation during the 2009 multi-wavelength campaign suggests that the physical processes dominating the emission during non-flaring states have similarities with those occurring during flaring activity. In particular, this observation supports leptonic scenarios as being responsible for the emission of Mrk 421 during non-flaring activity. Such a temporally extended X-ray/VHE correlation is not driven by any single flaring event, and hence is difficult to explain within the standard hadronic scenarios. Furthermore, the highest variability is observed in the X-ray band, which, within the one-zone synchrotron self-Compton scenario, indicates that the electron energy distribution is most variable at the highest energies.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2025

Correlating processing variables to material properties in recycled polypropylene: A data‐driven approach

Abstract Polypropylene (PP) is one of the most widely used plastics, yet its recycling remains limited, with less than 1% of solid waste PP being reprocessed. Mechanical recycling through extrusion is the most practical method, but inconsistent reprocessing conditions introduce variability in material properties. While temperature, screw speed, and residence time influence the thermomechanical stress applied during reprocessing, there are no standardized guidelines for optimizing these parameters. This study examines how these factors shape the properties of recycled PP, using conditions designed to mimic post‐industrial recycled (PIR) scrap. Residence time was measured using colorimetric tracking and correlated with molecular weight, viscosity, and mechanical properties over multiple extrusion cycles. Data‐driven modeling, including response surface methodology, support vector machines, and artificial neural networks, identified processing temperature as the dominant factor in material degradation, followed by residence time. Mechanical properties remained stable, while viscosity decreased predictably with increasing residence time. By linking reprocessing conditions to property evolution, this study provides a method to optimize processing parameters and reduce variability in recycled PP. These findings help manufacturers improve process control, making recycled PP more predictable for reuse in manufacturing. Highlights Study of PIR‐quality PP without additives or compatibilizers. Residence time analysis shows processing temperature drives PP property changes. Mark‐Houwink enables quick molecular weight checks for quality control. Models predict mechanical and rheological shifts in reprocessing. Optimized processing parameters minimize property degradation in recycling.

Estela‐García, John E. [Polymer Engineering Center↗
DOE OSTI2017

Quantification of marine aerosol subgrid variability and its correlation with clouds based on high‐resolution regional modeling

Abstract One limitation of most global climate models (GCMs) is that with the horizontal resolutions they typically employ, they cannot resolve the subgrid variability (SGV) of clouds and aerosols, adding extra uncertainties to the aerosol radiative forcing estimation. To inform the development of an aerosol subgrid variability parameterization, here we analyze the aerosol SGV over the southern Pacific Ocean simulated by the high‐resolution Weather Research and Forecasting model coupled to Chemistry. We find that within a typical GCM grid, the aerosol mass subgrid standard deviation is 15% of the grid‐box mean mass near the surface on a 1 month mean basis. The fraction can increase to 50% in the free troposphere. The relationships between the sea‐salt mass concentration, meteorological variables, and sea‐salt emission rate are investigated in both the clear and cloudy portion. Under clear‐sky conditions, marine aerosol subgrid standard deviation is highly correlated with the standard deviations of vertical velocity, cloud water mixing ratio, and sea‐salt emission rates near the surface. It is also strongly connected to the grid box mean aerosol in the free troposphere (between 2 km and 4 km). In the cloudy area, interstitial sea‐salt aerosol mass concentrations are smaller, but higher correlation is found between the subgrid standard deviations of aerosol mass and vertical velocity. Additionally, we find that decreasing the model grid resolution can reduce the marine aerosol SGV but strengthen the correlations between the aerosol SGV and the total water mixing ratio (sum of water vapor, cloud liquid, and cloud ice mixing ratios).

Lin, Guangxing↗
DOE OSTI2017

Early GRB afterglows from reverse shocks in ultra-relativistic, long-lasting winds

We develop a model of early Gamma-Ray Burst (GRB) afterglows with dominant X-ray contribution from the reverse shock (RS) propagating in highly relativistic (Lorentz factor γ{sub w} ∼ 10{sup 6}) magnetized wind of a long-lasting central engine. The model reproduces, in a fairly natural way, the overall trends and yet allows for variations in the temporal and spectral evolution of early optical and X-ray afterglows. The high energy and the optical synchrotron emission from the RS particles occurs in the fast cooling regime; the resulting synchrotron power L{sub s} is a large fraction of the wind luminosity, L{sub s}≈L{sub w}/√(1+σ{sub w}) (L{sub w} and σ{sub w} are wind power and magnetization). Thus, plateaus—parts of afterglow light curves that show slowly decreasing spectral power—are a natural consequence of the RS emission. Contribution from the forward shock (FS) is negligible in the X-rays, but in the optical both FS and RS contribute similarly: FS optical emission is in the slow cooling regime, producing smooth components, while RS optical emission is in the fast cooling regime, and thus can both produce optical plateaus and account for fast optical variability correlated with the X-rays, e.g., due to changes in the wind properties. We discuss how the RS emission in the X-rays and combined FS and RS emission in the optical can explain many puzzling properties of early GRB afterglows.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2015

FermI large area telescope third source catalog

We present the third Fermi Large Area Telescope (LAT) source catalog (3FGL) of sources in the 100 MeV–300 GeV range. Based on the first 4 yr of science data from the Fermi Gamma-ray Space Telescope mission, it is the deepest yet in this energy range. Relative to the Second Fermi LAT catalog, the 3FGL catalog incorporates twice as much data, as well as a number of analysis improvements, including improved calibrations at the event reconstruction level, an updated model for Galactic diffuse γ-ray emission, a refined procedure for source detection, and improved methods for associating LAT sources with potential counterparts at other wavelengths. The 3FGL catalog includes 3033 sources above 4σ significance, with source location regions, spectral properties, and monthly light curves for each. Of these, 78 are flagged as potentially being due to imperfections in the model for Galactic diffuse emission. Twenty-five sources are modeled explicitly as spatially extended, and overall 238 sources are considered as identified based on angular extent or correlated variability (periodic or otherwise) observed at other wavelengths. For 1010 sources we have not found plausible counterparts at other wavelengths. More than 1100 of the identified or associated sources are active galaxies of the blazar class; several other classes of non-blazar active galaxies are also represented in the 3FGL. Pulsars represent the largest Galactic source class. From source counts of Galactic sources we estimate that the contribution of unresolved sources to the Galactic diffuse emission is ∼3% at 1 GeV.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2025

Explainable Machine Learning for Functional Data

Black-box machine learning models are recognized as useful tools for prediction applications, but the algorithmic complexity of some models causes interpretation challenges. Explainability methods have been proposed to provide insight into these models, but there is little research focused on supervised modeling with functional data inputs. We argue that, especially in applications of high consequence, it is important to explicitly model the functional dependence in a black-box analysis to not obscure or misrepresent patterns in explanations. As such, we propose the V ariable importance E xplainable E lastic S hape A nalysis (VEESA) pipeline for training supervised machine learning models with functional inputs. The pipeline is an analysis process that includes the data preprocessing, modeling, and post-hoc explanations. The preprocessing is done using elastic functional principal components analysis, which accounts for vertical and horizontal variability in functional data and, ultimately, allows for explanations in the original data space that identify the important functional variability without bias due to correlated variables. Here, we demonstrate the pipeline on two high-consequence applications: explosives classification for national security and inkjet printer identification in forensic science. The applications exhibit the VEESA pipeline’s ability to provide an understanding of the characteristics of the functional data useful for prediction. Code for implementing the pipeline is available in the veesa R package (and supplemental python code).

Elastic Shape Analysis↗
DOE OSTI2017

Weather on Other Worlds. IV. Hα Emission and Photometric Variability Are Not Correlated in L0–T8 Dwarfs

Recent photometric studies have revealed that surface spots that produce flux variations are present on virtually all L and T dwarfs. Their likely magnetic or dusty nature has been a much-debated problem, the resolution to which has been hindered by paucity of diagnostic multi-wavelength observations. To test for a correlation between magnetic activity and photometric variability, we searched for H α emission among eight L3–T2 ultra-cool dwarfs with extensive previous photometric monitoring, some of which are known to be variable at 3.6 μ m or 4.5 μ m. We detected H α only in the non-variable T2 dwarf 2MASS J12545393−0122474. The remaining seven objects do not show H α emission, even though six of them are known to vary photometrically. Combining our results with those for 86 other L and T dwarfs from the literature show that the detection rate of H α emission is very high (94%) for spectral types between L0 and L3.5 and much smaller (20%) for spectral types ≥L4, while the detection rate of photometric variability is approximately constant (30%–55%) from L0 to T8 dwarfs. We conclude that chromospheric activity, as evidenced by H α emission, and large-amplitude photometric variability are not correlated. Consequently, dust clouds are the dominant driver of the observed variability of ultra-cool dwarfs at spectral types, at least as early as L0.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2021

Network analysis of earthquake ground motion spatial correlation: a case study with the San Jacinto seismic nodal array

SUMMARY The spatial correlation of earthquake ground motion intensity can be measured from strong motion data; however, the data used in past studies is sparsely sampled in space, and only the interstation distance was considered as a correlation variable. These limitations mean that we have only weak constraints on the true correlation structure of ground motion and that potentially important aspects of spatial correlation are unconstrained. In this study, we combine a large-N seismic array and graph analytics to explore this issue at a local scale using small local and regional earthquakes. Our result suggests site conditions, and how they interact with the incident seismic wavefield, strongly condition the spatial correlation of ground motion. Future progress in characterizing ground motion spatial variability will require dense wavefield measurements, either through nodal deployments, or perhaps distributed acoustic sensing measurements, of seismic wavefields. Aftershock sequences of major earthquakes would provide particularly data-rich targets of opportunity.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Measurements of differential cross-sections in four-lepton events in 13 TeV proton-proton collisions with the ATLAS detector

Measurements of four-lepton differential and integrated fiducial cross-sections in events with two same-flavour, opposite-charge electron or muon pairs are presented. The data correspond to 139 fb -1 of $ \sqrt{s} $ = 13 TeV proton-proton collisions, collected by the ATLAS detector during Run 2 of the Large Hadron Collider (2015–2018). The final state has contributions from a number of interesting Standard Model processes that dominate in different four-lepton invariant mass regions, including single Z boson production, Higgs boson production and on-shell ZZ production, with a complex mix of interference terms, and possible contributions from physics beyond the Standard Model. The differential cross-sections include the four-lepton invariant mass inclusively, in slices of other kinematic variables, and in different lepton flavour categories. Also measured are dilepton invariant masses, transverse momenta, and angular correlation variables, in four regions of four-lepton invariant mass, each dominated by different processes. The measurements are corrected for detector effects and are compared with state-of-the-art Standard Model calculations, which are found to be consistent with the data. The Z → 4 ℓ branching fraction is extracted, giving a value of (4.41 ± 0.30) × 10 -6 . Constraints on effective field theory parameters and a model based on a spontaneously broken B – L gauge symmetry are also evaluated. Further reinterpretations can be performed with the provided information.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗