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Implementation of a realistic artificial data generator for crash data generation

In this paper, a framework is outlined to generate realistic artificial data (RAD) as a tool for comparing different models developed for safety analysis. The primary focus of transportation safety analysis is on identifying and quantifying the influence of factors contributing to traffic crash occurrence and its consequences. The current framework of comparing model structures using only observed data has limitations. With observed data, it is not possible to know how well the models mimic the true relationship between the dependent and independent variables. Further, real datasets do not allow researchers to evaluate the model performance for different levels of complexity of the dataset. RAD offers an innovative framework to address these limitations. Hence, we propose a RAD generation framework embedded with heterogeneous causal structures that generates crash data by considering crash occurrence as a trip level event impacted by trip level factors, demographics, roadway and vehicle attributes. Within our RAD generator we employ three specific modules: (a) disaggregate trip information generation, (b) crash data generation and (c) crash data aggregation. For disaggregate trip information generation, we employ a daily activity-travel realization for an urban region generated from an established activity-based model for the Chicago region. We use this data of more than 2 million daily trips to generate a subset of trips with crash data. For trips with crashes crash location, crash type, driver/vehicle characteristics, and crash severity. The daily RAD generation process is repeated for generating crash records at yearly or multi-year resolution. In conclusion, the crash databases generated can be employed to compare frequency models, severity models, crash type and various other dimensions by facility type - possibly establishing a universal benchmarking system for alternative model frameworks in safety literature.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Updated General Aviation Non-Airport Crash Density Values Using Data Obtained from the U.S. National Transportation Safety Board for 2000 through 2019

This report documents the calculation of the General Aviation (GA) non-airport crash density for Department of Energy (DOE) sites and power generating facilities licensed by the Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) using the methodology outlined in DOE-STD-3014-2006, Accident Analysis for Aircraft Crash Into Hazardous Facilities. The results of this report will be used by the American Nuclear Society (ANS) for the development of ANS standard 2.36, Accident Analysis for Aircraft Crash into Reactor and Nonreactor Nuclear Facilities.

99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗

Evaluation of New Additions to OLI Software in Predicting Mercuric and Mercurous Species in Liquid Waste Operations

Speciation of mercury during the pretreatment steps of tank waste processing is critical to successful mercury removal prior to vitrification during Liquid Waste Operations (LWO) at SRS. OLI software has been used to predict mercury speciation and activity throughout LWO. The OLI software operates based on a thermodynamic framework called the Mixed Solvent Electrolyte (MSE) framework. The MSE framework allows prediction in theoretically infinitely dilute to concentrated mixtures (e.g., purely solute solutions). Before modification to the MSE framework databanks, certain critical mercury species were missing in the MSE databank, and some thermodynamic data needed to be updated for the OLI software to accurately predict mercury chemical species in SRS waste tanks. To better reflect streams across LWO, new mercury species were integrated into the MSE database. To evaluate the changes to the OLI MSE framework per the Technical Task Request (TTR) and the Task Technical and Quality Assurance Plan (TTQAP), waste stream compositions from Tanks 38, 43, and Tank 50 decontaminated salt solution (DSS) were used as model inputs. Models were developed and executed using both the old and new databases. Compositional analyses from caustic Tank 50 DSS and caustic Tanks 38 and 43 were used as the input streams. These streams represent the most comprehensive chemical data sets where both mercury and tank constituents were measured together. Results for Tank 50 DSS predict HgO as the predominant species in both databases. Both methyl and dimethyl Hg species are present when the new database is ‘on’ and are not predicted with the new database turned ‘off’. The new database predicts a greater amount of HgO and a greater fraction of it in the solid phase. Pourbaix diagrams (potential vs. pH) generated for each Tank 50 DSS were identical regardless of which database was used. Elemental Hg and HgO were predicted in the water stable region under basic conditions. Tanks 38 and 43 follow similar trends as the Tank 50 DSS models. Unlike Tanks 38 and 50 DSS, the Tank 43 Pourbaix plot shows a region of stability for an aqueous HgOHCO3 - species between approximately pH 7-11. In all streams, when MeHg+ is included in the inputs, the new database predicts aqueous MeHgOH as the dominant species. If elemental or dimethyl mercury is in the waste stream, the new database model predicts they are unchanged and remain in those states and quantities. Additionally, the total mercury values are reported for both the measured input data and the OLI output data for all considered tanks. The summary indicates that the percentage error between the measured and calculated values is less than 1% in all cases The reconciliations and generation of the Pourbaix diagrams for Tank 50 DSS took approximately ten times longer with the new database ‘on’. In addition, over the course of that time, models with the new database ‘on’ were more likely to crash or display an error. Some modest performance improvements were noted when modeling with an i7 processor versus an i5. An example error is found in Appendix A. Furthermore, Appendix B provides V&V for two chemical systems analyzed with the OLI software, results were satisfactory. It is recommended to utilize the new databases (i.e., HCO.ddb and SR-Hg.ddb) in future Savannah River Mission Completion applications of OLI to represent pseudo steady-state. Furthermore, the integration and utilization of the new databases (i.e., HCO.ddb and SR-Hg.ddb) in modeling applications (e.g., Aspen) is also recommended.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

Metagenome-assembled genomes measured at 3 depths during snowmelt period in East River, CO (March, May, and June, September 2017)

Snowmelt is a critical biogeochemical period that accounts for large nitrogen (N) export events from high-elevation watersheds. Soil microbial populations bloom and immobilize N during snowmelt, yet the population size crashes in spring, which releases a pulse of soil N. We sought to discover the N sources fueling this microbial bloom and determine the fate of N following microbial die-off. Here, focusing on the snowmelt period within a headwater catchment of the Upper Colorado River Basin (East River, CO), we deployed strain-resolved metagenomics to identify the metabolic pathways and processes that mobilize soil N during and after snowmelt. Soil metagenome samples were taken from 6 snowpits from 3 depths (0-5cm, 5-15cm, >15cm) at 4 time points during snowmelt period (March 2017, May 2017, and June 2017, September 2017) generating 48 metagenomes. We reconstructed 474 metagenome-assembled genomes (MAGs) across all metagenomes.All 48 metagenomes were sequenced at JGI and raw data can be found under JGI (Joint Genome Institute) GOLD Study Gs0135149. Metagenome assemblies from IMG under the same study were used for genome binning. This dataset (1) a zip file of 474 MAGs (as fasta files, Gs0135149_bins_tar.gz), (2) sample metadata file with sample IGSNs (International Generic Sample Numbers) (samples.csv), (3) bounding box coordinates for the sampled locations (Gs0135149.kml), (4) metagenome metadata file listing IMG/M (Integrated Microbial Genomes/Metagenomes) metagenome accessions linking samples to metagenomes (metagenomes.csv), (5) location metadata file (locations.csv), (6) file-level metadata file (flmd.csv) and (7) data dictionary (dd.csv) file.This work was supported by the Watershed Function Science Focus Area at Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory funded by the US Department of Energy, Office of Science, Biological and Environmental Research under Contract No. DE-AC02-05CH11231.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Simulating Atmospheric Processes in Earth System Models and Quantifying Uncertainties With Deep Learning Multi‐Member and Stochastic Parameterizations

Abstract Deep learning is a powerful tool to represent subgrid processes in climate models, but many application cases have so far used idealized settings and deterministic approaches. Here, we develop stochastic parameterizations with calibrated uncertainty quantification to learn subgrid convective and turbulent processes and surface radiative fluxes of a superparameterization embedded in an Earth System Model (ESM). We explore three methods to construct stochastic parameterizations: (a) a single Deep Neural Network (DNN) with Monte Carlo Dropout; (b) a multi‐member parameterization; and (c) a Variational Encoder Decoder with latent space perturbation. We show that the multi‐member parameterization improves the representation of convective processes, especially in the planetary boundary layer, compared to individual DNNs. The respective uncertainty quantification illustrates that methods (b) and (c) are advantageous compared to a dropout‐based DNN parameterization regarding the spread of convective processes. Hybrid simulations with our best‐performing multi‐member parameterizations remained challenging and crash within the first days. Therefore, we develop a pragmatic partial coupling strategy relying on the superparameterization for condensate emulation. Partial coupling reduces the computational efficiency of hybrid Earth‐like simulations but enables model stability over 5 months with our multi‐member parameterizations. However, our hybrid simulations exhibit biases in thermodynamic fields and differences in precipitation patterns. Despite this, the multi‐member parameterizations enable improvements in reproducing tropical extreme precipitation compared to a traditional convection parameterization. Despite these challenges, our results indicate the potential of a new generation of multi‐member machine learning parameterizations leveraging uncertainty quantification to improve the representation of stochasticity of subgrid effects.

Behrens, Gunnar [Deutsches Zentrum für Luft‐ und R↗

Mechanical Solutions Scan Report

Power lines, poles, and towers are the backbone of the United States (U.S.) electric-power grid. These transmission and distribution networks route electricity from generator to loads. The characteristics of these routes are rapidly changing -- trending towards decentralized renewable generation, electric heating, vehicle charging, and large data-center loads. Coupled with aging infrastructure and the increased frequency of extreme weather events, there is concern about the future reliability and transmission capacity of conductors and adjacent components. This scan report seeks to provide an overview of mechanical solutions to challenges caused by extreme weather events associated with components of transmission and distribution infrastructure, including conductor heat sag, ice accumulation, wind, and wildfire. Many options could increase transmission capacity or reliability, and these are at various stages of technological readiness. Some have only been lab tested, while some have been widely deployed in the U.S. or overseas for decades. The solution categories and providers featured in this report are intended to be comprehensive at the time of publication and to serve as a reference for decision-makers concerned about transmission and distribution reliability. There are two other categories of large, complex solutions, which are not covered in this report: replacing existing conductors with advanced conductors and implementing digital grid enhancing technologies. A separate scan report titled “Advanced Conductor Scan Report,” which discusses advanced carbon-core conductors, was published by the Idaho National Laboratory (INL) in 2023. Information on digital technologies, such as dynamic line ratings, power-flow controllers, and other power electronics and communications-based devices, can be found on the Grid- Enhancing Technologies landing page. Mechanical grid-enhancing technologies, or solutions covered in this report, often do not require full equipment replacement and do not rely on digital components. Mechanical technologies are overlooked because they may be older, simpler, or seemingly “more obvious” than digital or carbon-core technologies. However, it is wise to consider mechanical solutions in a thorough evaluation of grid enhancing technology solutions.

24 - POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗